sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

All trump cares about

Donald J. Trump Retweeted







5hDRUDGE REPORT‏ @DRUDGE_REPORT
[h=1]TRUMP APPROVAL HITS 50% [/h]


Daily Presidential Tracking Pollrasmussenreports.com

 

[tiznow]

One thing I've read, Schiff has said and you have said is that there are tons of mismanaged company in the mining space. So wouldn't that make ETF's not as good since it is just a basket of names? Or is that just an issue with junior minors and the ETF majors are pretty much fine as far as management goes? Seems like tons of BS goes on in gold space from what I've read.

Havent found one I really like other than btg..

if gold goes back near 2k gdxj or gdx will be more than double with little doubt... At least with the etf you are spread out and don't have the risk of holding the bad apple/crappy managed company by itself.. also mining isn't easy and accidents/mine shutdowns can happen..

gold itself or cef by far the safest/least volatile play..

all about how much risk/reward u want in your gold/silver position..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Down 6% since I bought, I mushed it lol

Not surprised market getting back the thursday losses and then some today, 1st relatively calm day in a while.

 

[tiznow]

Yeah shaking out the weak shorts/gold longs that jumped in last week on the ww3 coming trade lol..

just daily noise..

 

[tiznow]

GS and JNJ missed today

b2b months of crappy retail sales released Good Friday..

atlanta fed lowered q1 GDP estimate to 0.5% yesterday..

party on there is no bubble!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Doubt there is a recession until like 3rd Q 2018, could be wrong but you gotta make it look like it was Trump's doing.

Can't be having people thinking it wasn't his fault.

Rest set of market barely red besides gs and jnj.

 

[tiznow]

I agree official recession not until two straight negative GDP quarters.. so end of q3 earliest they'd officially declare it as it looks like q1 positive but barely..

markets always way off the highs by the time we "officially" in a recession

data like GDP and employment are lagging indicators..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Besides some of the internal stuff that the big firms have, what do you think are leading indicators?

That seems entirely subjective and it changes based on each economic pullback. So there is really nothing that you can emphatically point to, just tons of smaller signs adding up I guess.

 

[tiznow]

The number one leading indicator is the stock market itself .. thus the difficulty..

retail sales, housing market, manufacturing activity .. are the big 3 to watch IMO

 

[PatsFan1283]

The number one leading indicator is the stock market itself .. thus the difficulty..

retail sales, housing market, manufacturing activity .. are the big 3 to watch IMO

Yeah obviously nothing beats the market for forward looking. Dunno if I would say those 3 are the biggest but I'm not sure what else I'd point to. Every time period is different.

IBM was way off, I think they are more decoupled from the economy than JNJ is (so is GS, hilarious all the self-important bankers think them missing means a ton) but it is interesting to see these big names be way off and the rest of the market basically shrugs it off. Really only the names themselves are getting beaten down for it.

 

[eek.]

eeks take on it all is it isn't even close at the minit

Life, and finance, trundle onwards

...and bitcoins are miles better than gold...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Verizon missed, subs down. Don't think that is indicative of anything other than TMobile/Sprint starting to take a bite out of them with cheaper plans though.

 

[tiznow]

S&P now testing the 50 DMA and downtrend line since March 1st market top..

guessing it begins to roll back over tomorrow..

 

[PatsFan1283]

AXP really good #'s

Seems like a good near-term sign given all the retail issues. I saw Toronto followed Vancouver in putting a 15% tax on foreign buyers to combat the runaway housing price explosion because of influx of Chinese $.

Wonder if SF, LA or NY would ever go that far. I doubt it. It's an interesting concept, sortof a solution for a market failure.

In Cambridge, MA where Harvard/MIT are, a lot of the international students rich Chinese kids and their parents buy up a lot of housing for them as well.

 

[tiznow]

eeks take on it all is it isn't even close at the minit

Life, and finance, trundle onwards

...and bitcoins are miles better than gold...

UK Retail Sales printed at -1.5% versus -0.3% eyed. On a year over year basis, Retail Sales rose only 2.1% versus 5.4% indicating that lower pound and higher inflation costs are taking a bite out of UK spending. The sales deflator jumped 3.3% versus 2.9% the period prior suggesting that higher import costs are making their way into price levels.

 

[tiznow]

Investing.com – Business activity in the U.S. private sector unexpectedly weakened in April to its slowest pace in seven months, dampening optimism over the American economy, according to preliminary data released on Friday.
In a report, market research group Markit said that its flash services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 52.5 in April, from the prior month’s reading of 52.8.
Analysts had expected the reading to recover to 53.0.
Services make up approximately 80% of the U.S. economy which makes the data key for interpreting growth.
Markit also said that its flash manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) dropped to 52.8 in April from the prior month’s final reading of 53.3.
Analysts had expected an increase to 53.5.
The composite PMI, including activity in both sectors, slipped to 52.7 in April from the previous month’s reading of 53.0. That was its weakest reading since September 2016.
On the indices, a reading above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction.

 

[tiznow]

Housing bubble 2.0 still going strong though.. my area is a complete joke right now clueless how people can afford these prices.. will see how it does later this year.. think early spring weather + fear of rate hikes/mortgage rates going up pushing a lot of this activity forward and will fade out soon...

----------

Investing.com – U.S. existing home sales rose more than expected in March, bolstering optimism over the health of the housing market, according to a report released on Friday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The industry data showed that home resales increased by 4.4% in March to a seasonally adjusted 5.71 million units from 5.47 million units in the previous month. February’s data was revised slightly lower from an initial reading of 5.48 million units.
The consensus forecast was for a 2.5% rise from February’s initial reading to 5.60 million units.
The data helps to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is considered to be a key indicator of overall economic strength.
The report also showed that the median existing-home price in March was $236,400, up 6.8% from March 2016 ($221,400).
The report indicated that the existing-home sales took off in March to “their highest pace in over 10 years, and severe supply shortages resulted in the typical home coming off the market significantly faster than in February and a year ago.”

 

[tiznow]

Also housing is probably where the declining retail numbers come in.. people's wages not keeping up with mortgage payment increases so people forced cut in other places.. eventually it will filter into housing as retail woes hit employment..

at some point the market turns and the game of musical chairs stops.. just be sure you aren't the one stuck with a ridiculously overpriced home when the music stops..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Well, I think the people who bought 2013 and onward and have big debt loads could have some trouble but in general even if a house goes up, doesn't really make it a bad investment. As long as you don't treat it as a casino and long-term wealth builder like people do.

Home prices going up sucks for most people too, they just don't know it. Then they get hit with increased insurance, property taxes, etc and whatever paper wealth you have from the houses valuation you can't really use unless you borrow against it. And unless you wanna switch states, you can't really sell the home and make much $ because the home prices going up is all relative.

Seems like you could build tons of housing where all these malls/stripmalls that are going to go out of business are. Or put old folks communities there or something. A lot of land if people get creative with it. Wonder if that will create downward pressure on home prices over time, and then obviously any breakthroughs in transport will as well.

 

[tiznow]

Housing has become like the stock market.. days of Buy and hold over...

now its speculation mania boom/bust cycles with the fed/government allowing the booms to go on unchecked forntoo long cause banksters who in their pockets make big bucks off the cycles and if they get in trouble will get bailed out anyway..