Why do you think so many don't see it? On Wall st or just global finance people in general, is it cognitive dissonance?
Is it the wisdom of crowds only works when the individuals in the crowd have formed their thought independent of one another? When the wisdom of crowds is based on herd mentality then it is less valuable.
Is it they do know but don't care because they feel they personally will avoid the brunt of the collapse?
That is always an interesting question to me. Markets are largely efficient IMO but we've had 2 huge bubbles where the consensus opinion was horribly wrong and in retrospect anyone who believed the bubbles weren't fully formed was in huge denial and/or ignorantly misguided.
Is it the wisdom of crowds only works when the individuals in the crowd have formed their thought independent of one another? When the wisdom of crowds is based on herd mentality then it is less valuable.
Is it they do know but don't care because they feel they personally will avoid the brunt of the collapse?
That is always an interesting question to me. Markets are largely efficient IMO but we've had 2 huge bubbles where the consensus opinion was horribly wrong and in retrospect anyone who believed the bubbles weren't fully formed was in huge denial and/or ignorantly misguided.
A lot of people in the market know it's going to happen before it does, but just like at Stalingrad, the news is upbeat until the brutal reality is unavoidable. Part of it is propaganda, some of it is hope.
The little people don't get informed of the real situation until its too late.
During the 2008 crash, when we could ALL have had a punt at the wild swings up and down they cut the feed from the main markets in the UK so you couldn't trade, even if you were buying
It's rigged, pure and simple.
The only truly open unbiased market IMO is bet-fair because they are a pure middleman, nothing else
The little people don't get informed of the real situation until its too late.
During the 2008 crash, when we could ALL have had a punt at the wild swings up and down they cut the feed from the main markets in the UK so you couldn't trade, even if you were buying
It's rigged, pure and simple.
The only truly open unbiased market IMO is bet-fair because they are a pure middleman, nothing else
Majority of your working middle class/upper middle class that has a decent amount of vested interest in the stock market (increasingly Americans paycheck to paycheck and have no vested interest) too busy with work/family to think/care much about .. Majority just stick it in mutual funds or let somebody else invest for them..
It's either that or those that do pay attention are just brainwashed with permabull speak 24/7 ... Just stay the course it will comeback long term etc... Who cares if a blatant bubble is staring you in the face.. Fear of missing out on a rally..
the 1%ers and robots are the ones that profit mightily offa the boom/bust cycles...
the 1%ers and robots are the ones that profit mightily offa the boom/bust cycles...
Oh I wasn't asking about middle/upper middle class people. Obviously those people know nothing, cmon now.
I was asking about Wall St, global finance, Buffett types, etc
These people have access to tons of data that the public doesn't, how don't they do a better job of pricing that information into the market and thus less boom/bust cycles.
How can the wisdom of crowds (the smart money crowd) be so wrong?
I was asking about Wall St, global finance, Buffett types, etc
These people have access to tons of data that the public doesn't, how don't they do a better job of pricing that information into the market and thus less boom/bust cycles.
How can the wisdom of crowds (the smart money crowd) be so wrong?
Buffett sized wealth has to a permabull .. Nothing else u can be ... As you are the system/status quo..
plenty of the sharp Wall Street guys have come out in recent months saying sell everything but gold pretty much...
the fed and all its analysts just lie to themselves and the public .. Obviously they not gonna point fingers at themselves and say we are the problem ha
will be interesting to see their response when shot hits the fan and we already near zirp
plenty of the sharp Wall Street guys have come out in recent months saying sell everything but gold pretty much...
the fed and all its analysts just lie to themselves and the public .. Obviously they not gonna point fingers at themselves and say we are the problem ha
will be interesting to see their response when shot hits the fan and we already near zirp
Yeah but if the market is overvalued by 50% and most of that wealth is owned by the global elite, how do they let it get to this point?
How don't they know it is a bubble? How has this happened 2x and potentially a 3rd in under a generations worth of time?
Is it groupthink leading to a flaw in wisdom of crowds? Is it cognitive dissonance?
How can all these people worth trillions and trillions of dollars combined not know what is going on?
That is my question.
How don't they know it is a bubble? How has this happened 2x and potentially a 3rd in under a generations worth of time?
Is it groupthink leading to a flaw in wisdom of crowds? Is it cognitive dissonance?
How can all these people worth trillions and trillions of dollars combined not know what is going on?
That is my question.
I know it is easier to see these things after the fact but end of the tech bubble was sheer comedy, blue hips trading at 40 P/E range.
Housing/finance bubble had mega rich valuations by the end of it and it still didn't crash until late '08. Whole financial industry thrown for a loop.
What are these people missing? What is their inability to detect the mispricings being built up?
I know we've had bubbles throughout history and it is nothing new, but most would agree that on average markets are more efficient now than at other times given how big the finance industry is and how fast information flows.
Housing/finance bubble had mega rich valuations by the end of it and it still didn't crash until late '08. Whole financial industry thrown for a loop.
What are these people missing? What is their inability to detect the mispricings being built up?
I know we've had bubbles throughout history and it is nothing new, but most would agree that on average markets are more efficient now than at other times given how big the finance industry is and how fast information flows.
Don't forget about "quantitative easing" Pat, where the Fed has been helping to blow up the bubble
Any market maker with half a brain will take out half the cash and use the other half to pump the market higher kinda thing, perpetuating the kool-aid happy bubble
The market goes up, it goes down, whatever. At the end of the day it's in the hands of relatively few people
Any market maker with half a brain will take out half the cash and use the other half to pump the market higher kinda thing, perpetuating the kool-aid happy bubble
The market goes up, it goes down, whatever. At the end of the day it's in the hands of relatively few people
this is the QE/zirp bubble after they tech and housing/banking bubbles.. Rates zero for too long so everybody chasing anything that moves until shit hits the fan... Plus on spending side consumers as a whole are nearing max debt load again before an inevitable flush as they been tempted by low rates for 7-8 years now..
last 3 bubbles happened cause fed wanted to keep the party going as long as humanely possible till it blew up in spectacular fashion rather than pricking the bubbles before they grew to big.. That said that is probably their plan anyway... all these boom/bust cycles Good for the 1%er and financial elite who have all the inside info to play the high volatility correctly.. Stock market just a casino.. Rigged for house
last 3 bubbles happened cause fed wanted to keep the party going as long as humanely possible till it blew up in spectacular fashion rather than pricking the bubbles before they grew to big.. That said that is probably their plan anyway... all these boom/bust cycles Good for the 1%er and financial elite who have all the inside info to play the high volatility correctly.. Stock market just a casino.. Rigged for house
The other big thing about this qe/zirp bubble is big corporations using cheap debt (bubble in corporate bonds) to buyback shares to fluff earnings as well as m&a activity which ends up being a case of killing off good paying jobs... Once the party stops those the high debt loads the big guys holding gonna sting.. CEOs can't resist the sugar daddy neither and they only care about quarter to quarter .. No long term vision anymore from corporate America..
again in this all leads back to the fed spiking the punch bowl for too long.. Till we all get pass out drunk...
again in this all leads back to the fed spiking the punch bowl for too long.. Till we all get pass out drunk...
New car sales bubble (again curtosy of low rates for too long) has hit its max as wel it seems... GM and F both reported today that July sales down yoy
all the various mini bubbles within the overall bubble lead back to one place..
if you zirp for 7-8 years .. In a society that is live and spend for today who cares about tomorrow with little to no savings.. it will bubble and eventually blow up .. Just a matter of when..
oil and shale production (again funded by cheap debt)was another mini bubble within the overall bubble.. That one was the first to pop..
all the various mini bubbles within the overall bubble lead back to one place..
if you zirp for 7-8 years .. In a society that is live and spend for today who cares about tomorrow with little to no savings.. it will bubble and eventually blow up .. Just a matter of when..
oil and shale production (again funded by cheap debt)was another mini bubble within the overall bubble.. That one was the first to pop..
Oh no the dreaded D word.. We better start QE back up!! We can't have poor consumers that have zero vested interest in stock market buying necessities cheaper as market demands due to stagnant wages etc!!!! We must always intervene!! Free markets be damned must protect status quo elite at all costs!!
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[h=1]Grocer Kroger downgraded by BMO on food deflation fears[/h]
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
An employee stocks Greek yogurt in a Kroger supermarket in Peoria, Illinois.
BMO on Tuesday lowered its rating on Kroger to market perform from outperform, saying the company will suffer from the recent decline in food prices.
"We believe the magnitude of the grocery deflationary pressures ... are too hard to ignore and make share price outperformance difficult given the pressure on SSS and associated deleveraging impact on the income statement," analyst Kelly Bania wrote in a note to clients.
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[h=1]Grocer Kroger downgraded by BMO on food deflation fears[/h]
An employee stocks Greek yogurt in a Kroger supermarket in Peoria, Illinois.
BMO on Tuesday lowered its rating on Kroger to market perform from outperform, saying the company will suffer from the recent decline in food prices.
"We believe the magnitude of the grocery deflationary pressures ... are too hard to ignore and make share price outperformance difficult given the pressure on SSS and associated deleveraging impact on the income statement," analyst Kelly Bania wrote in a note to clients.
I don't know if I buy it is any type of conspiracy, I think the elites just buy into central planning as a solution for problems. They don't see libertarianism as the only long-term sustainable government. So they do this to themselves as a self-preservation tactic.
I don't think the boom/bust are really that good for the elites either. In real wealth terms, rather than just standard of living, they have by far the most to lose when the markets/economy go
up. Someone who is upper-middle class/affluent and trades their labor for money just doesn't have as much to lose when global asset prices tumble 60% in a recession.To say the financial elite have all the inside info to play the stock market correctly just doesn't show up in the %'s, when these busts happen the rich lose their asses in a major way. Maybe some hedge fund guys like Paulson and a few others do well, but many go bust. Other financial institutions go bust, iBanks, non-finance rich people, etc
So are they just in denial, truly don't see it coming?
Because they're losing a lot of money when stuff like this happens despite the "the rich leave the middle class holding the bag" mantra. The #'s don't really back that up obviously. When wealth is destroyed, it hurts the global rich immensely.
Tiz just a note on Trump, he is a buffoon but it is pretty funny seeing the establishment lineup and comeout against him now.
Bloomberg, Buffett
His whole message is the elites have bought and sold this country, we're taking it back. So what does Hillary do? Get endorsements from the 4th and 6th richest people in the world.
Bloomberg, Buffett
His whole message is the elites have bought and sold this country, we're taking it back. So what does Hillary do? Get endorsements from the 4th and 6th richest people in the world.
I don't know if I buy it is any type of conspiracy, I think the elites just buy into central planning as a solution for problems. They don't see libertarianism as the only long-term sustainable government. So they do this to themselves as a self-preservation tactic.
I don't think the boom/bust are really that good for the elites either. In real wealth terms, rather than just standard of living, they have by far the most to lose when the markets/economy go
To say the financial elite have all the inside info to play the stock market correctly just doesn't show up in the %'s, when these busts happen the rich lose their asses in a major way. Maybe some hedge fund guys like Paulson and a few others do well, but many go bust. Other financial institutions go bust, iBanks, non-finance rich people, etc
So are they just in denial, truly don't see it coming?
Because they're losing a lot of money when stuff like this happens despite the "the rich leave the middle class holding the bag" mantra. The #'s don't really back that up obviously. When wealth is destroyed, it hurts the global rich immensely.
Think big picture near term the buffet guys take a hit no doubt but long term they love the boom bust..
who goes under during the bust? Ma and pa small guy competition
Who survives and gains market share and can buy up competition cheap? The status quo big dogs
boom/bust is VERY good for the haves...
Slow and steady is good for little guys trying to take on the established players.. The down cycles take many into bankruptcy..
the nots just get whipsawed around and long term get a smaller share of the pie (see shrinking middle class)
