[h=1]Penn Jillette: Time for atheists to stand up and be counted[/h]Penn Jillette, a writer, television host and frequent guest on a wide range of shows, is half of the Emmy Award-winning magic act duo Penn & Teller. His new book "Presto" comes out in August. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
Why? Whether the pollsters bemoan it or celebrate it, the percentage of Americans who are losing their religion is rising. And in a presidential election year, candidates need to take note.
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[/COLOR]
Two of those remaining, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, still give lip service to being religious -- even if many on either side of religion don't believe them or want to claim them. (Why would this be the only thing either one of them would tell the truth about?)
The Libertarian candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who has the most executive experience and the least amount of experience lying, seems to never mention god. He's the one who believes that separation of church and state gives the most freedom for theists and atheists.
This tracks with a growing reality about religion in America. And those of us who are atheists -- living godless since forever -- have been trying to get a hint as to why so many are suddenly seeing through the glass darkly.
Is America Greater Without God? 01:29
Some think the September 11 attacks caused a big spike in atheism, as many people hipped to the fact that a benevolent god wouldn't allow that to happen. I don't think that was it. I don't think that day created a lot of atheists, but I think it made a lot of atheists want to speak up a little more.
After that day, the immorality of letting religion run wild, while atheists kept quiet and enjoyed delicious potluck suppers full of community and Jell-O, was inescapable.
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]
Smiling and turning the other cheek to the belief in nonsense-without-proof, while enjoying the loving culture and community, had consequences.
I'm from New England and I'll drop to my knees for community and Jell-O. My dad was a Christian his whole life, and my mom didn't say she was an atheist until she was in her 80s. The Christians in my life have treated me wonderfully. My admitting there's no god has nothing to do with rebelling against them: I loved them then, with their honest smiles and weird-ass coffee Jell-O, and still do.
Harvard Humanist Society welcomes all beliefs 01:59
But after 9/11 we had to find a way to celebrate community without condoning faith in things that can't be shared. We had to be good Americans without god, and learn that we could still have our culture, our biblical references and our community, without feigning faith.
After 9/11 we could no longer pretend that faith in god was harmless. The writing had been on the wall for a while, but now the walls were a-crumblin' down and innocent people were dying. Thousands of innocent people of all faiths died in that religious terrorist attack — including atheists.
Some people still balk at that word. "Atheist" is "homosexual" without the word "gay" being available. "Atheists" suffer in this designation: It defines us by inaction.
We try other words: "humanist," "non-religious," "heathen," "infidel." Some of us even lie about the term "agnostic," and pretend that it means "atheist with an open mind" or "atheist lite," but it really doesn't.
60 seconds in an atheist 'church' 01:02
"Agnostic" answers the epistemological question of how perfect knowledge can be, but once you've said you're agnostic (which every sane person is), you still have to answer the theological question about your personal belief -- and that comes down to "atheist" or "theist."
Then there's the deist thang: Maybe there's a force in the universe but it sure doesn't care about us as individuals and doesn't promise an afterlife. But a deist is really just an atheist before Darwin.
It's possible there's always been a huge number of Americans living their lives without faith in a personal god, but now we're letting our freak flags fly. We're still in the minority.
In fact it wasn't long ago that many people believed that in order to be taken seriously as a politician, you had to be a Bible thumper. After all, it's been said that Bill Clinton gave more speeches in churches than any other President in history. Many also believed the right wing was totally owned by hardcore Christians, but Ted Cruz proved that is no longer true.
Why more millennials are atheists 01:36
The only good news about Donald Trump, and this is from a rose-colored-glasses-crazy-optimist, is that Silly Donny shows us that even on the right wing, religion no longer really matters. Trump wouldn't know a verse from the Bible if it were tattooed backward on his backside so he could read it in the mirror. As far as I'm concerned, that proves he's not an atheist, because every atheist I've met knows the Bible really well.
This weekend on the Mall, some of the grooviest, smartest, most loving people in the country will get together and cheer about not having a personal god. Some of the ugliest, silliest, stupidest people will be there, too.
We're all atheists. I'm going to sing a song.
It's time for people to see what atheists really look like.
Atheists look like Americans. We are Americans, and we've always been your neighbors and friends.
[/COLOR]
Why? Whether the pollsters bemoan it or celebrate it, the percentage of Americans who are losing their religion is rising. And in a presidential election year, candidates need to take note.
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]
[/COLOR]
Two of those remaining, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, still give lip service to being religious -- even if many on either side of religion don't believe them or want to claim them. (Why would this be the only thing either one of them would tell the truth about?)
The Libertarian candidate, former New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson, who has the most executive experience and the least amount of experience lying, seems to never mention god. He's the one who believes that separation of church and state gives the most freedom for theists and atheists.
This tracks with a growing reality about religion in America. And those of us who are atheists -- living godless since forever -- have been trying to get a hint as to why so many are suddenly seeing through the glass darkly.
Is America Greater Without God? 01:29
Some think the September 11 attacks caused a big spike in atheism, as many people hipped to the fact that a benevolent god wouldn't allow that to happen. I don't think that was it. I don't think that day created a lot of atheists, but I think it made a lot of atheists want to speak up a little more.
After that day, the immorality of letting religion run wild, while atheists kept quiet and enjoyed delicious potluck suppers full of community and Jell-O, was inescapable.
[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.65098)]
Smiling and turning the other cheek to the belief in nonsense-without-proof, while enjoying the loving culture and community, had consequences.
I'm from New England and I'll drop to my knees for community and Jell-O. My dad was a Christian his whole life, and my mom didn't say she was an atheist until she was in her 80s. The Christians in my life have treated me wonderfully. My admitting there's no god has nothing to do with rebelling against them: I loved them then, with their honest smiles and weird-ass coffee Jell-O, and still do.
Harvard Humanist Society welcomes all beliefs 01:59
But after 9/11 we had to find a way to celebrate community without condoning faith in things that can't be shared. We had to be good Americans without god, and learn that we could still have our culture, our biblical references and our community, without feigning faith.
After 9/11 we could no longer pretend that faith in god was harmless. The writing had been on the wall for a while, but now the walls were a-crumblin' down and innocent people were dying. Thousands of innocent people of all faiths died in that religious terrorist attack — including atheists.
Some people still balk at that word. "Atheist" is "homosexual" without the word "gay" being available. "Atheists" suffer in this designation: It defines us by inaction.
We try other words: "humanist," "non-religious," "heathen," "infidel." Some of us even lie about the term "agnostic," and pretend that it means "atheist with an open mind" or "atheist lite," but it really doesn't.
60 seconds in an atheist 'church' 01:02
"Agnostic" answers the epistemological question of how perfect knowledge can be, but once you've said you're agnostic (which every sane person is), you still have to answer the theological question about your personal belief -- and that comes down to "atheist" or "theist."
Then there's the deist thang: Maybe there's a force in the universe but it sure doesn't care about us as individuals and doesn't promise an afterlife. But a deist is really just an atheist before Darwin.
It's possible there's always been a huge number of Americans living their lives without faith in a personal god, but now we're letting our freak flags fly. We're still in the minority.
In fact it wasn't long ago that many people believed that in order to be taken seriously as a politician, you had to be a Bible thumper. After all, it's been said that Bill Clinton gave more speeches in churches than any other President in history. Many also believed the right wing was totally owned by hardcore Christians, but Ted Cruz proved that is no longer true.
Why more millennials are atheists 01:36
The only good news about Donald Trump, and this is from a rose-colored-glasses-crazy-optimist, is that Silly Donny shows us that even on the right wing, religion no longer really matters. Trump wouldn't know a verse from the Bible if it were tattooed backward on his backside so he could read it in the mirror. As far as I'm concerned, that proves he's not an atheist, because every atheist I've met knows the Bible really well.
This weekend on the Mall, some of the grooviest, smartest, most loving people in the country will get together and cheer about not having a personal god. Some of the ugliest, silliest, stupidest people will be there, too.
We're all atheists. I'm going to sing a song.
It's time for people to see what atheists really look like.
Atheists look like Americans. We are Americans, and we've always been your neighbors and friends.
[/COLOR]
Too much internet traffic for government to monitor it all, we're currently at about 50 exabytes a month, was around 35 exabytes in 2010
-----------
Leaked report reveals mass data fears
Spy officials allegedly voiced concerns back in 2010 that so much data was being collected by the UK security services, they risked overlooking useful intelligence.
The draft report, apparently written for the UK government, was obtained by the Intercept website from US whistle-blower Edward Snowden.
It suggests that "life-saving intelligence data" could be missed.
Its release comes as the Investigatory Powers Bill goes through Parliament.
Extracts from the the document read: "The security service... can currently collect significantly more than it is able to exploit fully.
"This creates a real risk of intelligence failure from the service being unable to access potentially life-saving intelligence from data that it has already collected."
The report is marked classified and dated 12 February 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36469351
-----------
Leaked report reveals mass data fears
Spy officials allegedly voiced concerns back in 2010 that so much data was being collected by the UK security services, they risked overlooking useful intelligence.
The draft report, apparently written for the UK government, was obtained by the Intercept website from US whistle-blower Edward Snowden.
It suggests that "life-saving intelligence data" could be missed.
Its release comes as the Investigatory Powers Bill goes through Parliament.
Extracts from the the document read: "The security service... can currently collect significantly more than it is able to exploit fully.
"This creates a real risk of intelligence failure from the service being unable to access potentially life-saving intelligence from data that it has already collected."
The report is marked classified and dated 12 February 2010.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-36469351
How bout that earl. Haha
only thing I'm worried about is if OPEC has the ability to make up for the loss in non OPEC production.
I have no idea honestly what they are capable of.
Some say they are opening chokes full blast and giving it all they got right now. Some say they about to flood the market and capture the market share.
But US production about to fall off a clif just like I told everyone 3 or 4 months ago.
only thing I'm worried about is if OPEC has the ability to make up for the loss in non OPEC production.
I have no idea honestly what they are capable of.
Some say they are opening chokes full blast and giving it all they got right now. Some say they about to flood the market and capture the market share.
But US production about to fall off a clif just like I told everyone 3 or 4 months ago.
The key is gonna be be how much production OPEC can put out .
Some people say they are full throttle right now and some say they waiting for more non OPEC nations to say uncle.
I don't know the answer to that question.
There are people I respect on both sides.
But if OPEC is doing all they can do right now we headed back to 100 oil in less then a year.
The oil prices have done a number on Americas production that will take at least 3 or 4 years to recover from.
Domestic oil production is at the beginning stages of falling off a cliff.
And they won't be able to flip a switch overnight.
And the China economy free fall was highly overblown and you also have India about to become the new China so demand is gonna be higher then expected combined with lower output.
Its amazing how fast you can go from one extreme to the other
Some people say they are full throttle right now and some say they waiting for more non OPEC nations to say uncle.
I don't know the answer to that question.
There are people I respect on both sides.
But if OPEC is doing all they can do right now we headed back to 100 oil in less then a year.
The oil prices have done a number on Americas production that will take at least 3 or 4 years to recover from.
Domestic oil production is at the beginning stages of falling off a cliff.
And they won't be able to flip a switch overnight.
And the China economy free fall was highly overblown and you also have India about to become the new China so demand is gonna be higher then expected combined with lower output.
Its amazing how fast you can go from one extreme to the other
All depends on how long they can hold off the looming global recession/how much longer they are willing to inflate the near zirp bubble.... Chances are 25 or whatever it hit for the low was the bottom .. But at same time oil rally will fizzle and pull back quite a bit if markets finally cave in... I doubt 100 oil is seen anytime soon with all the headwinds now China slowing etc..
they approaching new highs on s&p but tech tends to lead the market Nasdaq still well off the highs.. Think this all just one big prop job to ensure Hillary gets in.. As recession/market carnage increase the chances of trump
they approaching new highs on s&p but tech tends to lead the market Nasdaq still well off the highs.. Think this all just one big prop job to ensure Hillary gets in.. As recession/market carnage increase the chances of trump
[h=1]Key government reports were wrong about methane leaks' severity, environmental group alleges[/h]An environmental organization filed a federal complaint Wednesday, alleging that key reports by a top U.S. Environmental Protection Agency official wrongfully stated the severity of methane leaks across the nation’s natural gas industry.
In its 68-page complaint to the EPA’s Office of Inspector General, NC Warn, a 28-year-old climate and energy justice organization based in North Carolina, alleges that David Allen, a university faculty member who was head of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board at the time of the reports, should have corrected studies about methane leaks after the equipment used for the reports was proved faulty. Allen is on the faculty of the University of Texas at Austin, according to the complaint.
NC Warn’s conclusion is largely based on whistle-blower Touché Howard, an engineer who invented the technology used to measure methane leaks. Howard identified a flaw in the technology that showed Allen’s studies could be underreporting emissions as much as 100-fold.
The studies were published in 2013 and 2014 by the Environmental Defense Fund at a time of concern about the impact of methane emissions on climate and as the fracking boom led to the drilling of thousands of gas wells across the country. The studies’ findings have been used by the natural gas industry to argue that methane leaks are low.
“In the extreme, that kind of failure could lead to catastrophic explosions,” Howard said in an interview.
California became particularly sensitive to concerns about natural gas leaks after the 2010 San Bruno natural gas pipeline explosion that killed eight people and destroyed a quiet Northern California neighborhood.
In addition, a leak at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility, which began in October and lasted for four months, forced thousands of people from their homes in the nearby Porter Ranch community.
Though the studies focused on methane leaks at drilling locations, Howard, now retired, said he believes that the flawed reporting has implications for Aliso Canyon and other natural gas facilities throughout the country.
In its complaint, NC Warn has called for an investigation by the EPA’s Office of Inspector General.
“Methane emissions have become the leading method of climate change,” said Jim Warren, executive director of NC Warn. “This is enormous for the people of California.”
In its 68-page complaint to the EPA’s Office of Inspector General, NC Warn, a 28-year-old climate and energy justice organization based in North Carolina, alleges that David Allen, a university faculty member who was head of the EPA’s Science Advisory Board at the time of the reports, should have corrected studies about methane leaks after the equipment used for the reports was proved faulty. Allen is on the faculty of the University of Texas at Austin, according to the complaint.
NC Warn’s conclusion is largely based on whistle-blower Touché Howard, an engineer who invented the technology used to measure methane leaks. Howard identified a flaw in the technology that showed Allen’s studies could be underreporting emissions as much as 100-fold.
The studies were published in 2013 and 2014 by the Environmental Defense Fund at a time of concern about the impact of methane emissions on climate and as the fracking boom led to the drilling of thousands of gas wells across the country. The studies’ findings have been used by the natural gas industry to argue that methane leaks are low.
“In the extreme, that kind of failure could lead to catastrophic explosions,” Howard said in an interview.
California became particularly sensitive to concerns about natural gas leaks after the 2010 San Bruno natural gas pipeline explosion that killed eight people and destroyed a quiet Northern California neighborhood.
In addition, a leak at the Aliso Canyon natural gas storage facility, which began in October and lasted for four months, forced thousands of people from their homes in the nearby Porter Ranch community.
Though the studies focused on methane leaks at drilling locations, Howard, now retired, said he believes that the flawed reporting has implications for Aliso Canyon and other natural gas facilities throughout the country.
In its complaint, NC Warn has called for an investigation by the EPA’s Office of Inspector General.
“Methane emissions have become the leading method of climate change,” said Jim Warren, executive director of NC Warn. “This is enormous for the people of California.”
[h=1]Soros Returns To Trading With "Big, Bearish" Bets On Economic Turmoil[/h]One month ago, we were stunned to report that none other than billionaire Carl Icahn had taken the net exposure of his hedge fund, Icahn Enterprises, from a modest net 25% short - his recent negative bias on the market was hardly a secret - to a practically apocalyptic, 149% net short which is about as close to betting on a market crash as one could get.
Then last month, billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller warned that “the bull market is exhausting itself” and in a presentation titled "The Endgame", he explained why he too is dumping equities and buying gold.
It turns out Icahn and Druck weren't the only iconic traders betting on a market crash.
In a stunning one-two revelation, the WSJ reports that after a nearly decade-long hiatus, not only has George Soros returned to trading, "lured by opportunities to profit from what he sees as coming economic troubles", but that he has personally directed "a series of big, bearish investments", meant to profit from the coming economic turmoil .
The last time Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, "when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers." Over the next two years the bets netted more than $1 billion of gains.
According to the WSJ's Greg Zuckerman, Soros Fund Management, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.
The move is rather shocking for the 85 year old, who earned fame with a bet against the British pound in 1992, a trade that led to $1 billon of profits. In recent years the billionaire has focused on public policy and philanthropy. He is also a large contributor to the super PAC backing presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and has donated to other groups supporting Democrats.
It appears he was also bored.
While Soros has always closely monitored his firm’s investments, as he got older he would delegate more and more, with many of his proteges moving on to start their own hedge funds, Trump's fundraiser Steven Mnuchin being just one example. As a result, in recent years, he hasn’t done as much investing of his own. That however has now changed and as the WSJ notes, recently Soros has been spending more time in the office directing trades. He has also been in more frequent contact with the executives, the people said.
According to the WSJ, Soros is stepping into a void at his firm. Last year, Scott Bessent, who served as Soros’s top investor and has a background in macro investing, or anticipating macroeconomic moves around the globe, left the firm to start his own hedge fund. Soros has invested $2 billion with Mr. Bessent’s firm, Key Square Group. Later in 2015, Mr. Soros tapped Ted Burdick as his chief investment officer. Mr. Burdick has a background in distressed debt, arbitrage and other types of trading, rather than macro investing, Mr. Soros’s lifelong specialty.
Which is why Soros felt comfortable stepping back in, and - as it turns out - it was to begin building a major bearish position. "Soros’s recent hands-on approach reflects a gloomier outlook than many. His worldview darkened over the past six months as economic and political issues in China, Europe and elsewhere have become more intractable. While the U.S. stock market has inched back toward records after troubles early this year and Chinese markets have stabilized, Mr. Soros said he remains skeptical of the Chinese economy, which is slowing."
While we documented Soro's pessimism about China earlier in the year, it appears to have only gotten worse, and as Soros said, "the fallout from any unwinding of Chinese investments likely will have global implications."
“China continues to suffer from capital flight and has been depleting its foreign currency reserves while other Asian countries have been accumulating foreign currency,” Soros said in an email. “China is facing internal conflict within its political leadership, and over the coming year this will complicate its ability to deal with financial issues.”
China will hardly be amused, and will promptly seek to muzzle any media outlets reporting Soros' renewed pessimism toward China's "recovery." It will hardly help its situation.
It's not just China. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU. “If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable,” he said. Still, Mr. Soros said recent strength in the British pound is a sign that a vote to exit the EU is less likely. “I’m confident that as we get closer to the Brexit vote, the ‘remain’ camp is getting stronger,” Mr. Soros said. “Markets are not always right, but in this case I agree with them.”
Finally, there is the US. Soros also adopted bearish derivative positions that serve as wagers against U.S. stocks. It isn’t clear when those positions were placed and at what levels during the first quarter, but the S&P 500 index has climbed 3% since the beginning of the second period, suggesting Mr. Soros could be facing losses on some of those moves. Unless, of course, the puts are longer-dated and the market does in fact proceed to crash.
Overall, the Soros fund is up a bit this year, in line with most macro hedge funds, according to people close to the matter. The investments by the firm were previously disclosed in filings, but it wasn’t clear how involved Mr. Soros was in the decisions spurring the moves.
* * *
The WSJ concludes by pointing out that the last time Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers over two years that netted more than $1 billion of gains. And now, a very bearish Soros is back again.
Then last month, billionaire trader Stanley Druckenmiller warned that “the bull market is exhausting itself” and in a presentation titled "The Endgame", he explained why he too is dumping equities and buying gold.
It turns out Icahn and Druck weren't the only iconic traders betting on a market crash.
In a stunning one-two revelation, the WSJ reports that after a nearly decade-long hiatus, not only has George Soros returned to trading, "lured by opportunities to profit from what he sees as coming economic troubles", but that he has personally directed "a series of big, bearish investments", meant to profit from the coming economic turmoil .
The last time Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, "when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers." Over the next two years the bets netted more than $1 billion of gains.
According to the WSJ's Greg Zuckerman, Soros Fund Management, which manages $30 billion for Mr. Soros and his family, sold stocks and bought gold and shares of gold miners, anticipating weakness in various markets. Investors view gold as a haven during times of turmoil.
The move is rather shocking for the 85 year old, who earned fame with a bet against the British pound in 1992, a trade that led to $1 billon of profits. In recent years the billionaire has focused on public policy and philanthropy. He is also a large contributor to the super PAC backing presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton and has donated to other groups supporting Democrats.
It appears he was also bored.
While Soros has always closely monitored his firm’s investments, as he got older he would delegate more and more, with many of his proteges moving on to start their own hedge funds, Trump's fundraiser Steven Mnuchin being just one example. As a result, in recent years, he hasn’t done as much investing of his own. That however has now changed and as the WSJ notes, recently Soros has been spending more time in the office directing trades. He has also been in more frequent contact with the executives, the people said.
According to the WSJ, Soros is stepping into a void at his firm. Last year, Scott Bessent, who served as Soros’s top investor and has a background in macro investing, or anticipating macroeconomic moves around the globe, left the firm to start his own hedge fund. Soros has invested $2 billion with Mr. Bessent’s firm, Key Square Group. Later in 2015, Mr. Soros tapped Ted Burdick as his chief investment officer. Mr. Burdick has a background in distressed debt, arbitrage and other types of trading, rather than macro investing, Mr. Soros’s lifelong specialty.
Which is why Soros felt comfortable stepping back in, and - as it turns out - it was to begin building a major bearish position. "Soros’s recent hands-on approach reflects a gloomier outlook than many. His worldview darkened over the past six months as economic and political issues in China, Europe and elsewhere have become more intractable. While the U.S. stock market has inched back toward records after troubles early this year and Chinese markets have stabilized, Mr. Soros said he remains skeptical of the Chinese economy, which is slowing."
While we documented Soro's pessimism about China earlier in the year, it appears to have only gotten worse, and as Soros said, "the fallout from any unwinding of Chinese investments likely will have global implications."
“China continues to suffer from capital flight and has been depleting its foreign currency reserves while other Asian countries have been accumulating foreign currency,” Soros said in an email. “China is facing internal conflict within its political leadership, and over the coming year this will complicate its ability to deal with financial issues.”
China will hardly be amused, and will promptly seek to muzzle any media outlets reporting Soros' renewed pessimism toward China's "recovery." It will hardly help its situation.
It's not just China. Soros also argues that there remains a good chance the European Union will collapse under the weight of the migration crisis, continuing challenges in Greece and a potential exit by the United Kingdom from the EU. “If Britain leaves, it could unleash a general exodus, and the disintegration of the European Union will become practically unavoidable,” he said. Still, Mr. Soros said recent strength in the British pound is a sign that a vote to exit the EU is less likely. “I’m confident that as we get closer to the Brexit vote, the ‘remain’ camp is getting stronger,” Mr. Soros said. “Markets are not always right, but in this case I agree with them.”
Finally, there is the US. Soros also adopted bearish derivative positions that serve as wagers against U.S. stocks. It isn’t clear when those positions were placed and at what levels during the first quarter, but the S&P 500 index has climbed 3% since the beginning of the second period, suggesting Mr. Soros could be facing losses on some of those moves. Unless, of course, the puts are longer-dated and the market does in fact proceed to crash.
Overall, the Soros fund is up a bit this year, in line with most macro hedge funds, according to people close to the matter. The investments by the firm were previously disclosed in filings, but it wasn’t clear how involved Mr. Soros was in the decisions spurring the moves.
* * *
The WSJ concludes by pointing out that the last time Soros became closely involved in his firm’s trading: 2007, when he became worried about housing and placed bearish wagers over two years that netted more than $1 billion of gains. And now, a very bearish Soros is back again.
For the record I finally pulled out of every non oil oil a few months ago not that anyone cares .
I did pull out perfectly last time they had a crash and went all in just at the right time last time but it was probably luck .
I did pull out perfectly last time they had a crash and went all in just at the right time last time but it was probably luck .
Hey Tiz.
Those MusclePharm Combat Crunch bars are really exploding on the health bar scene lately.
Im talking everywhere.
But I keep looking at the stock and it's not going anywhere.
The popularity has probably increased 500% in the last year.
I am a very religious customer of the bar myself. I love them and they are gaining rapidly in popularity vs it's #1 competitor in quest .
They are at every health food store and most people I know who tried them greatly prefer them over all the competition .
I even found some at the 7/11 type convenience store yesterday right next to the Hershey bars.
So what in the world is wrong with that stock?
That shit cost $30 per case if you don't get it on sale.
They selling millions of these things daily.
Those MusclePharm Combat Crunch bars are really exploding on the health bar scene lately.
Im talking everywhere.
But I keep looking at the stock and it's not going anywhere.
The popularity has probably increased 500% in the last year.
I am a very religious customer of the bar myself. I love them and they are gaining rapidly in popularity vs it's #1 competitor in quest .
They are at every health food store and most people I know who tried them greatly prefer them over all the competition .
I even found some at the 7/11 type convenience store yesterday right next to the Hershey bars.
So what in the world is wrong with that stock?
That shit cost $30 per case if you don't get it on sale.
They selling millions of these things daily.
you would think we could raise interest rates
Gilts hit record low
Today the yield on the benchmark UK 10 year gilt fell to a record low
dropping below 1.25% for the first time ever and bottoming at 1.22% (so far).
So just why should we care? What happens when government bond yields slide?
A question for the experts at investment manager Hargreaves Lansdown ...
Well, for a start, they say, bond prices rise when the yields fall, which is good for anyone holding a bond fund.
But - it's less good for pensioners. Annuity rates tend to fall after dips in gilt yields, meaning less income for pensioners buying an annuity.
Meanwhile, equities look more attractive by comparison because getting a 3.5% to 4% dividend yield looks increasingly appealing as gilt yields fall.
And - bad news for pension funds - pension liabilities increase and deficits tend to widen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36463765
The bottom line is that they don't want people to save, they want us to spend our way to a recovery... and broad sunlit uplands...
Gilts hit record low
Today the yield on the benchmark UK 10 year gilt fell to a record low
dropping below 1.25% for the first time ever and bottoming at 1.22% (so far).
So just why should we care? What happens when government bond yields slide?
A question for the experts at investment manager Hargreaves Lansdown ...
Well, for a start, they say, bond prices rise when the yields fall, which is good for anyone holding a bond fund.
But - it's less good for pensioners. Annuity rates tend to fall after dips in gilt yields, meaning less income for pensioners buying an annuity.
Meanwhile, equities look more attractive by comparison because getting a 3.5% to 4% dividend yield looks increasingly appealing as gilt yields fall.
And - bad news for pension funds - pension liabilities increase and deficits tend to widen
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-36463765
The bottom line is that they don't want people to save, they want us to spend our way to a recovery... and broad sunlit uplands...
[h=1]Are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the same person?[/h](CNN)Are Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump the same person? The normal test for that is asking if they've ever been seen in the same room together -- and, OK, they have. At Trump's third wedding. Clinton says she and Bill only went because they thought "it would be fun."
But it's more than that: Power also attracts power; egos are drawn to ego. And when chatting over a glass of champagne at the reception, they might have found they have a surprising amount in common.
1. Age. Clinton is 68; Trump turns 70 in a few days. They're both baby boomers and their lives followed two very "Sixties" trajectories. Clinton, the young idealist, grew up to become a left-wing activist. Trump, the square WASP, grew up to become a filthy rich yuppie. They're like Barbra Streisand and Robert Redford in "The Way We Were." Without the romance. Thank God.
2. There are some things they agree on.Seriously. Trump flirts with extremism but on many practical questions his instincts are moderate. Both candidates pledge to preserve Social Security. Both have found nice things to say about Planned Parenthood. Both think it's time to spend more on infrastructure. Both probably thing Bernie Sanders is nuts.
Clinton defends paid leave, Planned Parenthood 00:39
3. They've been on television since television was invented, or thereabouts. I was born in 1982. Clinton entered the Arkansas governors' mansion in 1979; Trump was making headlines for his real estate deals in the early 1980s. There hasn't been a year of my life in which one of these two wasn't explaining to Barbara Walters why they're misunderstood/innocent of all charges/fighting back/still happily married. Their lives are rolling episodes of "The
4. They're members of the 1%. Both rail against the iniquities of modern capitalism ... and both of them have made a heap of money out of it. Clinton is thought to be worth about $15.3 million -- an income boosted by speeches given to Goldman Sachs that were so boring that attendees say they can't remember what was in them. No one's ever said that about Donald Trump. His precise net worth is disputed: There's evidence he inflates it — a lot. But a man who flies everywhere in his own branded aircraft probably doesn't dine out on food stamps.
5. They color their hair. Sexism works both ways. Yes, women have to put up with the pay gap, but at least Clinton can fess up to using dye. Men, by contrast, try to pretend that they're just naturally cherry red. The evolution of Trump's hair is fascinating: from blond to ginger to gray and all the way back to a kind of dirty mustard. His bathroom sink must look like an artist's palette.
6. They're New Yorkers. Clinton has the politics: liberal, big machine. Trump has the machismo attitude. Of the two, however, Clinton distinguishes herself by knowing how to eat a pizza. With the fingers, not the fork.
7. They have marital issues. Clinton has had to suffer Bill's adultery. Trump's"publicist" says he's irresistible to women, including a young Madonna, and he had an extramarital affair with Marla Mapleswhen he was married to Ivana Trump. The same year Trump sued his ex-wife for a tell-all book, 1992, Clinton was on "60 Minutes" to say she was standing by her man.
8. They face investigations for potential misconduct. Clinton for alleged use and abuse of government email. Trump for setting up Trump University, for which he is facing three lawsuits that argue the program defrauded thousands of people of millions. Former students say they were told they'd be meeting the head professor himself only to be invited to have their photo taken with a cardboard Trump cutout. Someone should write a piece of speculative fiction in which both candidates wind up running for office from jail.
9.They share a lot family history. Clinton's grandparents were British Isles stock. Trump's paternal grandparents came from Germany and his mother was raised on an island in Scotland. So both the candidates are mostly the descendants of 19th century WASP arrivals but, and this is interesting, they both have daughters who married Jewish men -- Ivanka Trump even converted. Incidentally, you know the federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, who is presiding over the Trump University case, and who Trump calls a "hater" because of his Mexican heritage? Curiel's father arrived in the United States in the 1920s. Trump's mother landed in 1930. Now who seems more American?
Trump's mom, wife born outside U.S.02:49
10. They are loathed by large swathes of the population. Trump has a net negative of -33%. Clinton only does slightly better with -21%. Both are widely regarded as untrustworthy. The only point of contrast might be how well voters judge that they lie. Clinton's fabrications are well polished: One senses that she could be trusted to lie on the world stage and not embarrass us. Trump's fabrications are more transparent but also more fun. He lies loudly. The magic beans he sells are "gonna be huuuuuge."
Poll: 50% have unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton 01:44
Yes, there are a lot of differences between Clinton and Trump -- and the election probably provides the starkest choice in terms of personality and outlook in decades. But their similarities suggest that in many ways this election is business as usual.
Clinton claims to be on the side of the little guy, but is far too rich and cozy with Wall Street to be a populist. And Trump talks about jobs, greatness and China -- but made his billions in ways that some call unethical.
Look beyond the rhetoric and America still seems like a country run by the rich for the rich.
But it's more than that: Power also attracts power; egos are drawn to ego. And when chatting over a glass of champagne at the reception, they might have found they have a surprising amount in common.
1. Age. Clinton is 68; Trump turns 70 in a few days. They're both baby boomers and their lives followed two very "Sixties" trajectories. Clinton, the young idealist, grew up to become a left-wing activist. Trump, the square WASP, grew up to become a filthy rich yuppie. They're like Barbra Streisand and Robert Redford in "The Way We Were." Without the romance. Thank God.
2. There are some things they agree on.Seriously. Trump flirts with extremism but on many practical questions his instincts are moderate. Both candidates pledge to preserve Social Security. Both have found nice things to say about Planned Parenthood. Both think it's time to spend more on infrastructure. Both probably thing Bernie Sanders is nuts.
Clinton defends paid leave, Planned Parenthood 00:39
3. They've been on television since television was invented, or thereabouts. I was born in 1982. Clinton entered the Arkansas governors' mansion in 1979; Trump was making headlines for his real estate deals in the early 1980s. There hasn't been a year of my life in which one of these two wasn't explaining to Barbara Walters why they're misunderstood/innocent of all charges/fighting back/still happily married. Their lives are rolling episodes of "The
4. They're members of the 1%. Both rail against the iniquities of modern capitalism ... and both of them have made a heap of money out of it. Clinton is thought to be worth about $15.3 million -- an income boosted by speeches given to Goldman Sachs that were so boring that attendees say they can't remember what was in them. No one's ever said that about Donald Trump. His precise net worth is disputed: There's evidence he inflates it — a lot. But a man who flies everywhere in his own branded aircraft probably doesn't dine out on food stamps.
5. They color their hair. Sexism works both ways. Yes, women have to put up with the pay gap, but at least Clinton can fess up to using dye. Men, by contrast, try to pretend that they're just naturally cherry red. The evolution of Trump's hair is fascinating: from blond to ginger to gray and all the way back to a kind of dirty mustard. His bathroom sink must look like an artist's palette.
6. They're New Yorkers. Clinton has the politics: liberal, big machine. Trump has the machismo attitude. Of the two, however, Clinton distinguishes herself by knowing how to eat a pizza. With the fingers, not the fork.
8. They face investigations for potential misconduct. Clinton for alleged use and abuse of government email. Trump for setting up Trump University, for which he is facing three lawsuits that argue the program defrauded thousands of people of millions. Former students say they were told they'd be meeting the head professor himself only to be invited to have their photo taken with a cardboard Trump cutout. Someone should write a piece of speculative fiction in which both candidates wind up running for office from jail.
9.They share a lot family history. Clinton's grandparents were British Isles stock. Trump's paternal grandparents came from Germany and his mother was raised on an island in Scotland. So both the candidates are mostly the descendants of 19th century WASP arrivals but, and this is interesting, they both have daughters who married Jewish men -- Ivanka Trump even converted. Incidentally, you know the federal judge, Gonzalo Curiel, who is presiding over the Trump University case, and who Trump calls a "hater" because of his Mexican heritage? Curiel's father arrived in the United States in the 1920s. Trump's mother landed in 1930. Now who seems more American?
Trump's mom, wife born outside U.S.02:49
10. They are loathed by large swathes of the population. Trump has a net negative of -33%. Clinton only does slightly better with -21%. Both are widely regarded as untrustworthy. The only point of contrast might be how well voters judge that they lie. Clinton's fabrications are well polished: One senses that she could be trusted to lie on the world stage and not embarrass us. Trump's fabrications are more transparent but also more fun. He lies loudly. The magic beans he sells are "gonna be huuuuuge."
Poll: 50% have unfavorable view of Hillary Clinton 01:44
Yes, there are a lot of differences between Clinton and Trump -- and the election probably provides the starkest choice in terms of personality and outlook in decades. But their similarities suggest that in many ways this election is business as usual.
Clinton claims to be on the side of the little guy, but is far too rich and cozy with Wall Street to be a populist. And Trump talks about jobs, greatness and China -- but made his billions in ways that some call unethical.
Look beyond the rhetoric and America still seems like a country run by the rich for the rich.
Seems like you hear of a new billionaire or investing legend going short the market every other day for like 5 years now. Not saying they're clueless but for the most part their guesses are as good as ours.
Someone like Buffett, his skill is in identifying consumer staples or mature type companies being undervalued, his ability to predict where the economy is going in the short-term seems to be pretty pedestrian. Icahn's strength seems to be in understanding complex deals, huge inefficiencies in companies that can be fixed but also not really a whiz at predicting where the global economy is going.
Someone like Buffett, his skill is in identifying consumer staples or mature type companies being undervalued, his ability to predict where the economy is going in the short-term seems to be pretty pedestrian. Icahn's strength seems to be in understanding complex deals, huge inefficiencies in companies that can be fixed but also not really a whiz at predicting where the global economy is going.
Not the super sharp guys with crazy good past performances like soros and drunkenmiller ..
obviously a bubble gonna form when you near zirp for so long.. Plain common sense any way u slice it.. Just a matter of when... Overall Market gone nowhere for over year and half now.. Valuations in some of these large cap divy stocks climbing higher gettin funny..
obviously a bubble gonna form when you near zirp for so long.. Plain common sense any way u slice it.. Just a matter of when... Overall Market gone nowhere for over year and half now.. Valuations in some of these large cap divy stocks climbing higher gettin funny..
Bubbles/malinvestment etc is super easy to spot.. Timing when they end is the tough part
------------
[h=1]Druckenmiller: These 2 charts show how 'unproductive' and 'reckless' companies have been[/h]Legendary hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller laid out a gloomy message for the market at the Sohn Conference last week.
The Duquesne Capital founder said that the “bull market has exhausted itself”after eight years of a “radical monetary experiment.”
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy over the last eight years has led to “unproductive” and “reckless” corporate behavior, Druckenmiller said.
“The doves keep asking ‘where is the evidence of mal-investment?’ Druckemiller said. He proceded to show a chart of US non-financials' year-on-year change in net debt versus operating cash flow, as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda).
.
He pointed out that the growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and turned negative year-over-year. Meanwhile, net debt has continued to climb.
“Never in the post-World War II period has this happened,” Druckenmiller said. “Until the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincident. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time Ebitda turned negative year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5-year divergence is unprecedented in financial history!”
It gets more disturbing. He pulled up a chart showing how US non-financial firms used corporate debt between 1995 and 2015. The purple in the graph represents share buybacks and M&A. The green represents capital expenditure.
.
He noted that the debt in the 1990s was used to finance the construction of the internet. Now most of that debt today is used for financial engineering as opposed to productive investments.
“Notice how the green dominates in the 1990’s and is totally dominated by the purple in the current cycle. Think about this. Last year, buybacks and M&A were $2 trillion. All R&D and office equipment spending was $1.8 trillion. And the reckless behavior has grown in a non-linear fashion after 8 years of free money,” he said.
He continued: “In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion while all R&D and office equipment spending was $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose since then, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew $750 billion, or 3-times this! You can only live on your seed corn so long. Despite no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit share of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector today is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins, and growing indebtedness. And we are paying 18-times for the asset class.”
Druckenmiller later added that the market appears to be very overvalued.
“If we have borrowed more from our future than any time in history and markets value the future, we should be selling at a discount, not a premium to historic valuations. It is hard to avoid the comparison with 1982 when the market sold for 7-times depressed earnings with dozens of rate cuts and productivity rising going forward vs. 18-times inflated earnings, productivity declining and no further ammo on interest rates.”
Druckenmiller launched Duquesne in 1981. He’s earned one of the best long-term track records in the hedge fund space. He converted his fund into a family office in 2010.
His fund's largest allocation right now is to gold, specifically shares of the GLD ETF.
------------
[h=1]Druckenmiller: These 2 charts show how 'unproductive' and 'reckless' companies have been[/h]Legendary hedge fund manager Stan Druckenmiller laid out a gloomy message for the market at the Sohn Conference last week.
The Duquesne Capital founder said that the “bull market has exhausted itself”after eight years of a “radical monetary experiment.”
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy over the last eight years has led to “unproductive” and “reckless” corporate behavior, Druckenmiller said.
“The doves keep asking ‘where is the evidence of mal-investment?’ Druckemiller said. He proceded to show a chart of US non-financials' year-on-year change in net debt versus operating cash flow, as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (Ebitda).
.
He pointed out that the growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and turned negative year-over-year. Meanwhile, net debt has continued to climb.
“Never in the post-World War II period has this happened,” Druckenmiller said. “Until the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincident. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time Ebitda turned negative year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5-year divergence is unprecedented in financial history!”
It gets more disturbing. He pulled up a chart showing how US non-financial firms used corporate debt between 1995 and 2015. The purple in the graph represents share buybacks and M&A. The green represents capital expenditure.
.
He noted that the debt in the 1990s was used to finance the construction of the internet. Now most of that debt today is used for financial engineering as opposed to productive investments.
“Notice how the green dominates in the 1990’s and is totally dominated by the purple in the current cycle. Think about this. Last year, buybacks and M&A were $2 trillion. All R&D and office equipment spending was $1.8 trillion. And the reckless behavior has grown in a non-linear fashion after 8 years of free money,” he said.
He continued: “In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion while all R&D and office equipment spending was $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose since then, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew $750 billion, or 3-times this! You can only live on your seed corn so long. Despite no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit share of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector today is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins, and growing indebtedness. And we are paying 18-times for the asset class.”
Druckenmiller later added that the market appears to be very overvalued.
“If we have borrowed more from our future than any time in history and markets value the future, we should be selling at a discount, not a premium to historic valuations. It is hard to avoid the comparison with 1982 when the market sold for 7-times depressed earnings with dozens of rate cuts and productivity rising going forward vs. 18-times inflated earnings, productivity declining and no further ammo on interest rates.”
Druckenmiller launched Duquesne in 1981. He’s earned one of the best long-term track records in the hedge fund space. He converted his fund into a family office in 2010.
His fund's largest allocation right now is to gold, specifically shares of the GLD ETF.
