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bushman
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David Cameron is absolutely charging ahead of the game to get a UK referendum on EU membership done and dusted by this June

They've minced about for decades over this very important issue, and he has a very high probability of losing(An out-vote)
He is 100% for an in-vote

If he's pushing so hard over the timing, and he could well lose... then what on earth is the problem??
More bad news ahead is my guess, and this is his best window of opportunity

He's been told he'll probably be fooked if he waits too long, ... that's my guess

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35483522
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Oil itself actually holding up well in face of the data.. Fully expect oil prices to bottom wel before the equity markets... Kinda doubt recent low was it for oil but I guess it's possible.. Just interesting that it's holding up so well so far today..
 

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[h=1]Have Student Loans Created a New Generation of Payday Loan Addicts?[/h]My wife and I were watching a news program the other day when a commercial for a prescription medicine piqued my interest.
The drug was designed to treat an ailment that, as it turns out, comes from taking another prescription medicine made to treat something else.
The absurdity of that inspired me to think about other instances where this might also be the case. Because of my predisposition to view such things in a financial context, I recalled a report I’d recently read on consumer-financing trends.

It touched upon an important reason why a rapidly growing number of 20- and 30-year-olds are signing up for loans from alternative finance companies — firms that pitch payday, tax-refund, auto-title and pawn-shop loans: Because their other debt obligations are leaving them short on funds.
Researchers at George Washington University’s Global Financial Literacy Excellence Center analyzed a 5,500 subsample of millennials who participated in the Financial Industry Regulator Authority’s (FINRA) 2012 National Financial Capability Study. They found that 42% of that subsample are currently or expect to soon become alternative financing company customers.
Why are so many 20- and 30-somethings apparently willing to risk their longer-term financial security by doing business with firms that are known for charging higher rates and fees than traditional lenders?
They haven’t much choice.
The researchers found that more than half of those surveyed were carrying credit card balances. Nearly 30% were overdrawing on their checking accounts and 20% had borrowed or taken hardship withdrawals from their retirement accounts. As such, their creditworthiness is, in a word, impaired.
What’s more, since budgeting is a zero-sum game and 54% of the surveyed millennials also said that they were concerned about their ability to repay their higher-education loans, it’s reasonable to conclude that these are the debt obligations that underlie the problem. Money woes related to student loan debts isn’t all that surprising: Roughly half of the student loans currently in repayment are either past due, in default, in forbearance or being accommodated by one of the government’s many relief programs.
So it’s quite possible that the reason why alternative finance companies are in such great shape is because the loans their customers had previously undertaken are making them sick.
Which brings me back to the absurd premise of needing a second medication to counteract the first.


If we are truly concerned about the increasing use of alternative financing products by consumers with worsening credit, it would make sense to address a fundamental reason why that deterioration is occurring in the first place: student loans.
We can start by abandoning the nickel-and-dime approach we’ve taken thus far and re-price the entire loan portfolio at rates that correspond with the government’s actual costs to fund and administer these contracts, and extend their repayment durations so that installments consume no more than 10% of a typical borrower’s monthly earnings.
Student loans would then become more affordable, and, as a direct result, the need for financing products that have the potential to compromise consumers’ longer-term financial health can mostly become a thing of the past.
 

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The USA alone is projected to drop 800k bbls p/d by December.
Thats a huge drop in a short period of time.
Iran also does not hand the infrastructure or the money to reach near the top end of their projected output that's already priced in.

I would get heavy on oil right now.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Usd tanking today the catalyst for the support across everything.. Hopes of more currency debasement (low rates qe etc) to "save" us from looming recession ...

maybe be they'll mange to keep the bubble inflated longer? That's the only way I see oil bottoming now... Is if central bankers keep firing and take more drastic desperate actions .. Beyond Japan negative etc..

thats td just how it is today.. Central banking decisions determine the marketplace.. Free markets as we know it been dead for a long long time now just getting worse..

if us equity markets don't hold previous lows it's game over...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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1850 s&p looks like the critical level.. Big ol multi year head and shoulders top on the s&p..

close below 1850 we likely heading to at least 1550...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Business as usual... Any means necessary to ram stuff through and prop things up...

hadnt to checked in on the ol us debt clock lately we just crossed 19 trillion and that works out to 58k per citizen..

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GOP investigation: Treasury misled Congress, public about the debt limit


The Obama administration considered prioritizing debt payments if the nation hit its borrowing cap, despite public assurances from the Treasury Department that such a plan would be unworkable, according to a congressional probe.
The Republican leadership of the House Financial Services Committee charged Monday that Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and other department officials misled the public when it came to the risks of the debt ceiling.
Citing subpoenaed documents, the lawmakers found that Treasury consulted with Federal Reserve officials about prioritizing payments and deliberately worked to keep lawmakers in the dark.One internal email from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that “Treasury wants to maximize pressure on Congress by limiting communications about contingency planning.”
The probe found that Treasury and Fed officials had gone through “tabletop” scenarios in an effort to come up with a payment plan if the nation was no longer able to borrow funds.
“These internal documents show the Obama Administration took the nation’s creditworthiness and economy hostage in a cynical attempt to create a crisis so the President could get what he wanted during negotiations over the debt ceiling,” said House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas).
“The Administration owes it to the American people to be honest and transparent about its debt ceiling contingency plans.”
Treasury downplayed the GOP's findings and reiterated that any contingency plan could still carry serious consequences.
“As the Treasury Department has explained on numerous occasions … Treasury has been forced to consider a range of options with respect to how it would operate in the unthinkable event that Congress fails to raise the debt limit,” said a department spokesperson. “While Treasury has viewed the option of delaying payments as the least harmful option in this catastrophic scenario, make no mistake — this would still be default.”
The report is the latest development in a long-running feud between congressional Republicans and the White House over the debt ceiling.
The two sides have sparred for years over what bills the government would be able to pay if the debt limit were reached. The administration has consistently cast raising the debt limit as non-negotiable and said any delay could damage the economy.
But Republicans charge the government could ensure that the most critical payments are made even if the debt limit is reached.
The GOP report found that there was some concern at the New York Fed about the Treasury’s reticence to discuss alternatives to a debt-ceiling increase.
One New York Fed employee described Treasury’s approach to a fellow employee as “crazy, counter-productive, and add[ing] risk to an already risky situation.”
In 2011 and 2013, the White House faced off against congressional Republicans eager to use the borrowing cap to extract fiscal concessions from the president.
The prospect of the U.S. government not paying its debt was frightening enough to roil markets, and the administration consistently insisted that without a prompt increase to the borrowing cap, the nation was in danger of a catastrophic default.
The administration eventually refused to negotiate on the borrowing cap at all, calling the matter too serious.
In turn, Republicans repeatedly floated prioritization plans, arguing that the government brings in enough revenue to keep up with critical payments like interest on government debt and Social Security.
The Treasury has acknowledged it would be able to make principal and interest payments on government debt but said such an outcome would still be undesireable. And the notion of getting even more specific and singling out Social Security payments would be out of the question, given the massive amount of payments processed each day.
"Attempting to manually prioritize among more than 80 million payments made by the federal government each month — to troops, veterans, Social Security recipients, Medicare recipients, vendors, etc. — would be uncharted territory that’s fraught with risk," wrote the Treasury in an October blog post.
Any contingency plan has never been put to the test, as policymakers have reached an agreement in time to avoid a potential default every time the government neared its borrowing limit.
But findings that the government may have some wiggle room to minimize debt limit damage could play into future talks, as lawmakers looking to extract concessions could feel less pressure to act.
The two-year budget deal passed by Congress last year suspends the debt limit until March 2017. At that point, the cap will be raised to cover all government borrowing done in the meantime.
 

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Tiz what's your projection on the dollar going forward
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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No clue/opinion on usd but I'm very bullish on gold ... Which in turn means used probably drops... Market was expecting rate raises wont come.. Japan already in negative territory.. And not sure how much will there is to deeper in Europe...

Bitcoin issues another thing that good for gold...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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The main ? Now IMO is will fed backing out (they will) of rate hikes matter and prop up the bubble longer.. Or is recession inevitable... And an easing in fed policy from the currently on the record policy of more hikes coming won't matter..

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Dudley's Dovish Declaration Develops into a Deluge of Dollar Disposal

It’s been a disastrous day for the world’s reserve currency: the US Dollar Index is trading down by over 1.5% to a new 3-month low near 97.00 and the greenback is falling against every one of her major rivals. As ZeroHedge gleafully noted on twitter, the US dollar index is seeing its biggest drop since Q1 2009, when the Federal Reserve first introduced quantitative easing.

The proximate cause for today’s collapse appears to be this morning’s comment from the influential head of the New York Federal Reserve, William Dudley. In an interview with Market News International, Dudley stated, “One thing I think we can say with more confidence is that financial conditions are considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting…things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward."

Along with Fed Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer, Dudley speaks for the powerful “core” of the Federal reserve and as a result, his comments tend to carry more weight than those of other regional Fed presidents. While he later returned to typical vauge FedSpeak, noting that it was "a little soon to draw any firm conclusions,” the explicit mention of the recent financial market turmoil reminded traders that lately, the markets have been the proverbial “tail” wagging the Fed policy “dog,” not the other way around. As a result, Feds Funds futures traders have now pushed back the implied odds to a Fed rate hike at all this year to just 38%(!) as of writing.

Technical view: NZD/USD

While the damage to the buck has been broad-based, potentially the biggest moves are against the commodity dollars with the currencies of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand all trading about 2% higher against the US dollar.

We touched on the technical outlook for NZD/USD last week, but wanted to revist that pair after today’s massive 2.5% rally. Last Thursday, we noted that “NZD/USD’s near-term movement will likely hinge on global risk sentiment: if major risk assets (led by oil) are able to extend the current rally, the higher-yielding NZD/USD will likely follow suit.” With oil trading higher by nearly 8% today, the rally in all the commodity dollars is hardly surprising.

After today’s explosion, kiwi is testing its 200-day moving average against the US dollar at .6720; this will be the next major hurdle for bulls. In terms of fundamental catalysts for the pair, Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report is the proverbial elephant in the room (stay tuned for our full NFP preview report tomorrow afternoon). If NFP comes in below 200k (especially if see minimal wage growth as well), it would validate traders’ concerns about the US economy and Fed policy, potentially pushing NZD/USD back toward the 6-month high near .6900 in process. Of course, a strong NFP report could alleviate some of the market’s concerns about the dollar, likely leading to a near-termd dip back toward .6600 or .6500 in NZD/USD.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Usd getting smacked around some more.. Not helping keep markets and oil afloat both down a bit.. Gold continues to rally..

usd likely starting to price in back to ez money policy (no rate hikes coming in foreseeable future) + likely recession regardless of what fed decides to do..
 

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Oil had a nice bounce earlier today then it quickly turned south when Obama's $10/barrel surcharge proposal hit the wire. The dude is so obsessed with alt-energy which is just another scam. <Musk> cancelled one guy order of Tesla Model X because the dude talked shit about the event. Good example of a company that operating on gov incentive. If you take away the tax break, TSLA would drop to $50 in six months.
 

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Musk has become a spoiled little brat, that's not a good sign for the company.
 

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The reason Tesla has fallen so much over the past 6 months is because the other car companies have largely caught up. The main reason Tesla really gained a lead was because battery tech/charging/etc wasn't close to ready and they weren't going to risk spending billions of dollars to develop products that would be so inferior to an ICE vehicle. Now GM, Nissan, Ford, etc all have their own partnerships with battery companies and the engineering know-how to make EVs competitive with Tesla.

It is hard to say what will happen with Tesla but I think sometime within the next 3-4 years it will get bought out for less than it is worth now. Someone will get the warehouse, gigafactory and brand name on the cheap.

Really tough industry to disrupt. The big automakers just have huge advantages in almost all areas of that industry. There is a reason there hasn't been an American car company to gain traction in the US in over 60 years.

The fact the stock ever hit a market cap of 35B is a testament to Musk showmanship and marketing ability.
 

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Then you've got the competition for engineering talent and the brain drain that comes from all that competition. Apple has been poaching Tesla engineers.

Even companies like Google and Apple will likely need partnerships to make headway into the auto industry. You can't just start building 300k cars a year even if you've got the right product.
 

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As long everyone can fill up their SUV tank for less than $40 bucks each time, electric car is dead and buried. Musk used to be a good saleman and I think he is still good, the problem is he is running out of tricks. It's just hard to find a new one in this deflation environment.
 

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As long everyone can fill up their SUV tank for less than $40 bucks each time, electric car is dead and buried. Musk used to be a good saleman and I think he is still good, the problem is he is running out of tricks. It's just hard to find a new one in this deflation environment.

If the company doesn't win the space then a lot will be written as to why, but I think it is as simple as the other car companies just wokeup. They have more $, more know-how, better supplier/retailer relationships, supply chain, bigger R&D budgets etc

I mean this wasn't low hanging fruit as far as ambition goes, trying to compete in that industry against the established companies is very difficult. Tesla did a lot of things right over the years, built a cult following for their product, attempted to change the sales model by going direct to consumer (which some states didn't allow, there is your government cronyism) and actually are still in the process of building a really good product.

Gas isn't going to stay sub $2 forever and technology isn't going to stay stagnant. In 5-7 years or so, I think some form of EV will begin to ramp up sales numbers. Maybe hybrid-plugin where you get the electric car drive and the range is good enough for 90% of your trips but there is an ICE backing it up.

Apple and Google aren't getting into the car space because they like to lose money. Auto industry changing fast on multiple levels.
 

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Tesla could even still make it. Tough to say how strong their brand and other competitive advantages are, from everything I've read, it isn't much besides a loyalty to the brand and Musk which will likely go away fast once other companies produce superior and more affordable products.

Definitely wouldn't touch it at at $170...Probably a good short but the time to short was really 6 months ago when analysts were losing their minds over the stock. Some idiot at Morgan Stanley who knew nothing about the industry had a price target of like $400.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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Then you've got the competition for engineering talent and the brain drain that comes from all that competition. Apple has been poaching Tesla engineers.

Even companies like Google and Apple will likely need partnerships to make headway into the auto industry. You can't just start building 300k cars a year even if you've got the right product.

Apple? Iphone iterations to infinity is not innovation.. They had one big idea that they were well ahead of the game in on a closed system ... They are Microsoft now.. Granted Microsoft has gotten better lately now that they have leadership with vision and not ballmer corporate shill.. Cook a ballmer type...

Curious to see if they buy Netflix now that they so far behind on that front.. Behind on car stuff.. They now the one chasing everybody's tail..

tesla stock just got way ahead of itself + ridiculous musk premium.. I'll likely be buying for cheap as this bear market plays out along with unsustainable sub 30 oil ...
 

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