Who knows .. Worldwide debt and economy so tangled/intertwined now no telling what can happen during the bust phases
a 50% or so decline from the peak likely in store for us.. So low 1000s s&p a coming my guess..
got gold? think now may be time it comes out of hibernation after its long sleep..
a 50% or so decline from the peak likely in store for us.. So low 1000s s&p a coming my guess..
got gold? think now may be time it comes out of hibernation after its long sleep..
I know it is ugly right now but sooner than later you'll probably just get some fed guidance that they will only raise 1-2x more this year and it will stabilize for a bit, maybe get choppy to the downside but not the hot knife through butter collapse we're seeing now. If it is a bloodbath the fed isn't gonna keep with the 4 in a year plan.
Took out 2014 gains but it'll take a bit longer to get through the 2013s.
I think It'll take atleast a year and probably closer to 18 months for this to get worked out. Could even be longer if they put it off. Sooner the better really...
I'm interested to see what the spillover is as far as other assets like real estate or the actual economy goes. Will it stay low growth/sluggish or get significantly worse? Either way, deflation in energy not the worst thing.
We definitely live in some interesting times.
Now for some good news...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/business/us-proposes-spending-4-billion-on-self-driving-cars.html
This is going to start getting more and more mainstream attention.
Took out 2014 gains but it'll take a bit longer to get through the 2013s.
I think It'll take atleast a year and probably closer to 18 months for this to get worked out. Could even be longer if they put it off. Sooner the better really...
I'm interested to see what the spillover is as far as other assets like real estate or the actual economy goes. Will it stay low growth/sluggish or get significantly worse? Either way, deflation in energy not the worst thing.
We definitely live in some interesting times.
Now for some good news...
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/15/business/us-proposes-spending-4-billion-on-self-driving-cars.html
This is going to start getting more and more mainstream attention.
If only our leaders could get on this train of thought too...
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/opinion/the-new-atomic-age-we-need.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/28/opinion/the-new-atomic-age-we-need.html
Bears don't last very long and are very swift.. As far as markets are concerned.. Fed has zero ammo to stop it short of going hard core qe again which caused this bubble to begin with..
the repurcussions of the market carnage .. Or what the markets are predicting (markets predict the future not the now)... On the other hand are felt for many many years...
currently everybody looking at 401ks shrink and markets fall.. Start to think I better start saving more.. Gotta start worrying about my job.. Yada yada.. And feeds on itself.. Into everything.. Everything is so interconnected now..
also China was the little engine that could that kept chugging right along as the west floundered during the last two busts... Keeping global growth going.. Now it's floundering as well
bear and recession clearly here.. Just a matter of how bad..
chances are market mega spike soon.. Bears don't go straight down either..
the repurcussions of the market carnage .. Or what the markets are predicting (markets predict the future not the now)... On the other hand are felt for many many years...
currently everybody looking at 401ks shrink and markets fall.. Start to think I better start saving more.. Gotta start worrying about my job.. Yada yada.. And feeds on itself.. Into everything.. Everything is so interconnected now..
also China was the little engine that could that kept chugging right along as the west floundered during the last two busts... Keeping global growth going.. Now it's floundering as well
bear and recession clearly here.. Just a matter of how bad..
chances are market mega spike soon.. Bears don't go straight down either..
You don't think if the fed comes out and says "we're going to be cautious on rates and make sure the economy is stable" that people will temporarily buy that and the market will remain choppy for a good portion of the year? It's tough to predict but all the market really wants is to avoid getting too far off zirp it seems. Tough to say how bad China can sink it, like you said everything is just interconnected now.
The groupthink with these people is crazy. Someone like Dimon has access to the smartest research and analysts in the world and he is on CNBC saying that it seems like it is just an "adjustment period", he has to know that is BS or maybe he is just a sociopath and DGAF.
Also hilarious watching the talking heads use lagging indicators as reasoning as to why things are fine.
At this point you would think everyone knows a lot of that data always looks good at the beginning of bear markets and always looks terrible at the start of bull markets.
The groupthink with these people is crazy. Someone like Dimon has access to the smartest research and analysts in the world and he is on CNBC saying that it seems like it is just an "adjustment period", he has to know that is BS or maybe he is just a sociopath and DGAF.
Also hilarious watching the talking heads use lagging indicators as reasoning as to why things are fine.
At this point you would think everyone knows a lot of that data always looks good at the beginning of bear markets and always looks terrible at the start of bull markets.
majority of leaders today are sociopaths only way you can get to the top is to trample on others just the way the world is now..
groupthink! Hitting the nail on the head
all global central banking/bankers/political types are Ivy leaguers cut from the same cloth.. Academic inbreeding.. Little original thought With mega sociopathic tendencies.. Who think they know what's best for the economy .. Who feel this sense of self importance and they have the answers to our ills.. when the only one who truly knows what's best is the free markets...
groupthink! Hitting the nail on the head
all global central banking/bankers/political types are Ivy leaguers cut from the same cloth.. Academic inbreeding.. Little original thought With mega sociopathic tendencies.. Who think they know what's best for the economy .. Who feel this sense of self importance and they have the answers to our ills.. when the only one who truly knows what's best is the free markets...
As for fed .. Zirp or lack there of has little to do with the coming GLOBAL recession
its fruits were already born by past mistakes/policy decisions globally. What they do from here matters little.. The bubble was already formed and the missal location of assets already happened.. If anything with economic indicators tanking prior to a measly 1/4 hike the hike may have been just for show and to point fingers that direction when it has nothimg to do with it
go to hussman.net and read his recent weekly articles explains everything very well...
its fruits were already born by past mistakes/policy decisions globally. What they do from here matters little.. The bubble was already formed and the missal location of assets already happened.. If anything with economic indicators tanking prior to a measly 1/4 hike the hike may have been just for show and to point fingers that direction when it has nothimg to do with it
go to hussman.net and read his recent weekly articles explains everything very well...
[h=1]Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: An Imminent Likelihood of Recession - January 18, 2016[/h]
January 18, 2016An Imminent Likelihood of Recession
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy
Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a U.S. recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood, awaiting confirmation that typically only emerges after a recession is actually in progress. The reason the consensus of economists has never anticipated a recession is that so few distinguish between leading and lagging data, so they incorrectly interpret the information available at the start of a recession as “mixed” when, placed in proper sequence, the evidence forms a single, coherent freight train.
While I’m among the only observers that anticipated oncoming recessions and market collapses in 2000 and 2007 (shifting to a constructive outlook in-between), I also admittedly anticipated a recession in 2011-2012 that did not emerge. Understand my error, so you don’t incorrectly dismiss the current evidence. Though not all of the components of our Recession Warning Composite were active in 2011-2012, I relied on an alternate criterion based on employment deterioration, which was later revised away, and I relied too little on confirmation from market action, which is the hinge between bubbles and crashes, between benign and recessionary deterioration in leading economic data, and between Fed easing that supports speculation and Fed easing that merely accompanies a collapse.
.......
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc160118.htm
January 18, 2016An Imminent Likelihood of Recession
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
All rights reserved and actively enforced.
Reprint Policy
Since October, the economic evidence has shifted from supporting a growing risk of recession, to a guarded expectation of recession, to the present conclusion that a U.S. recession is not only a risk but an imminent likelihood, awaiting confirmation that typically only emerges after a recession is actually in progress. The reason the consensus of economists has never anticipated a recession is that so few distinguish between leading and lagging data, so they incorrectly interpret the information available at the start of a recession as “mixed” when, placed in proper sequence, the evidence forms a single, coherent freight train.
While I’m among the only observers that anticipated oncoming recessions and market collapses in 2000 and 2007 (shifting to a constructive outlook in-between), I also admittedly anticipated a recession in 2011-2012 that did not emerge. Understand my error, so you don’t incorrectly dismiss the current evidence. Though not all of the components of our Recession Warning Composite were active in 2011-2012, I relied on an alternate criterion based on employment deterioration, which was later revised away, and I relied too little on confirmation from market action, which is the hinge between bubbles and crashes, between benign and recessionary deterioration in leading economic data, and between Fed easing that supports speculation and Fed easing that merely accompanies a collapse.
.......
http://hussman.net/wmc/wmc160118.htm
I just meant the fed with some guidance can delay the inevitable and kick the can down the road. It is possible they are powerless, tough to say how bad the news out of China is. I still think they can manipulate their way to a slower unwinding. Probably just because they've done so for almost a decade now.
I still don't think it is a huge deal in the grand scheme of things as long as it ushers us back to reality. You would hope that the aggressive cutting central banking ideology would be defeated and the free market would be allowed to function properly. This election cycle indicates that isn't going to happen, but there is still time.
Only thing I can really think of is if the market does tank then an election year is a great time to do so since you would need discussion as to the cause/effect and the fed. I mean it has been brought up, it's just not much of an issue for politicians to talk about when S&P is at all time highs but you can clearly see some of them understand the charade.
I still don't think it is a huge deal in the grand scheme of things as long as it ushers us back to reality. You would hope that the aggressive cutting central banking ideology would be defeated and the free market would be allowed to function properly. This election cycle indicates that isn't going to happen, but there is still time.
Only thing I can really think of is if the market does tank then an election year is a great time to do so since you would need discussion as to the cause/effect and the fed. I mean it has been brought up, it's just not much of an issue for politicians to talk about when S&P is at all time highs but you can clearly see some of them understand the charade.
The big oil guys are perfectly fine and can weather the storm.. There will be no bailing of the oil patch it will go bust as it should.. Lessons learned... That's just part of the natural cleansing process..
banks will take significant losses but don't think there are any highly leverage time bombs to deal with this time..
banks will take significant losses but don't think there are any highly leverage time bombs to deal with this time..
I'm sceptical about driverless cars, too many parameters IMO plus they would make fabulous hi-jacking victims
They tried it with merchant ships years ago and gave up because of global cheap labour
The way the world population is increasing now means that getting a 5 dollar an hour driver in the future isn't going to be difficult.
They tried it with merchant ships years ago and gave up because of global cheap labour
The way the world population is increasing now means that getting a 5 dollar an hour driver in the future isn't going to be difficult.
A wee bit about Bill Gates' foundation, which is basically a private sector propaganda machine masquerading as a charity, bolstering corporate power and helping to increase poverty
Wealth, influence of Gates Foundation distorting intl development – Global Justice Now
"It also accused the foundation of undermining sustainable, small-scale farmers that are providing food security in Africa by promoting the adoption of GM, patented seed systems and chemical fertilizers across the continent."
The foundation is basically a corporate wolf in charitable sheeps clothing
Wealth, influence of Gates Foundation distorting intl development – Global Justice Now
"It also accused the foundation of undermining sustainable, small-scale farmers that are providing food security in Africa by promoting the adoption of GM, patented seed systems and chemical fertilizers across the continent."
The foundation is basically a corporate wolf in charitable sheeps clothing
