sell! sell! sell!

[tiznow]

Much much different situation than the 70s.. coming outta QE (never done before) and at zirp for 7+ years..

they mighta done it now since they knew we were on verge of recession anyway... So they can blame that and the lemmings will beg for more zirp and qe.. Beg the sugar daddy to put more punch in the punch bowl..

a measely 1/4 PT Rate hike had nothing to do with coming recession and data already starting to tank.. China slowing down under its own weight etc..

 

[snoop]

Obama single handedly killed entire oil industry with the Iran & global climate deal. Not one single crude future contract that is traded above $50/pb beyond 2022. It's in for an epic bear market.

Thank you, Mr. President.

 

[tiznow]

Whatever..

zirp/qe ez debt/money and media yapping nonstop about energy independence and fracking the main culprit..

oil will snap back hard on the other side of this bust... Price instability the new fed way..

 

[snoop]

They're in for a much longer pain than everyone has expected. All experts in the industry called oil $60/pb at Q415. They missed by 45%. BTW, I'm throwing $10k at your puppy DNR this morning Chopper, will wait for 2-3 years out to see how it goes.

 

[tiznow]

Commodities and commodity related stocks will bottom out first when who knows..

Bubbled equity markets Beginning to play catchup .. Low 1000s for s&p coming..

 

[snoop]

Need Choina housing bubble to blow up to take it to 1000.

 

[tiznow]

Absolutely zero clue what's going on in China..

just know last 5+ years in us a complete facade.. Fueled by cheap debt.. Near Zero organic growth outside of tech land.. Just lotsa debting/M&a/share buy backs fluffing numbers/cutting jobs as much as possible etc..

 

[eek.]

recently saw cdos making a come back

If that's the case then the markets deserve a good kicking for the sake of all of us
Those kinda things are just supercasino bullshit for gambling junkies

 

[snoop]

Oil is crashing down again.

$1.49/gallon gaz here we come...

:cripwalk:

 

[tiznow]

[h=1]The Deflation Monster Has Arrived[/h]As we’ve been warning for quite a while(too long for my taste): the world’s grand experiment with debt has come to an end. And it’s now unraveling.
Just in the two weeks since the start of 2016, the US equity markets are down almost 10%. Their worst start to the year in history. Many other markets across the world are suffering worse.
If you watched stock prices today, you likely had flashbacks to the financial crisis of 2008. At one point the Dow was down over 500 points, the S&P cracked below key support at 1,900, and the price of oil dropped below $30/barrel. Scared investors are wondering: What the heck is happening? Many are also fearfully asking: Are we re-entering another crisis?
Sadly, we think so. While there may be a market rescue that provide some relief in the near term, looking at the next few years, we will experience this as a time of unprecedented financial market turmoil, political upheaval and social unrest. The losses will be staggering. Markets are going to crash, wealth will be transferred from the unwary to the well-connected, and life for most people will get harder as measured against the recent past.
It’s nothing personal; it’s just math. This is simply the way things go when a prolonged series of very bad decisions have been made. Not by you or me, mind you. Most of the bad decisions that will haunt our future were made by the Federal Reserve in its ridiculous attempts to sustain the unsustainable.
[h=2]The Cost Of Bad Decisions[/h]In spiritual terms, it is said that everything happens for a reason. When it comes to the Fed, however, I’m afraid that a less inspiring saying applies:

Yes, it’s easy to pick on the Fed now that it’s obvious that they’ve failed to bring prosperity to anyone but their inside coterie of rich friends and big client banks. But I’ve been pointing out the Fed’s grotesque failures for a very long time. Again, too long for my tastes.
I rather pointlessly wish that the central banks of the world had been reined in by the public before the crash of 2008. However the seeds of their folly were sown long before then:

(Source)
Note the pattern in the above monthly chart of the S&P 500. A relatively minor market slump in 1994 was treated by the then Greenspan Fed with an astonishing burst of new money creation -- via its ‘sweeps” program response, which effectively eliminated reserve requirements for banks .That misguided policy created the first so-called Tech Bubble, which burst in 2000.
The next move by the Fed was to drop rates to 1%, which gave us the Housing Bubble. That was a much worse and more destructive event than the bubble that preceded it. And it burst in 2008.
Then the Fed (under Bernanke this time) dropped rates to 0%. The rest of the world’s central banks followed in lockstep (some going even further, into negative territory, as in Europe’s case). This has led to a gigantic, interconnected set of bubbles across equities, bonds and real estate -- virtually everywhere across the globe.
So the Fed's pattern here was: fixing a small problem with a bad decision, which lead to an even larger problem addressed by an even worse decision, resulting in an even larger set of problems that are now in the process of deflating/bursting. Three sets of increasingly bad decisions in a row.
The amplitude and frequency of the bubbles and crashes are both increasing. As is the size and scope of the destruction.
[h=2]The Even Larger Backdrop[/h]The even larger backdrop to all of this is that the developed world, and recently China, have been stoking growth with debt, and have been doing so for a very long time.
Using the US as a proxy for other countries, this is what the lunacy looks like:

As practically everybody can quickly work out, increasing your debts at 2x the rate of your income eventually puts you in the poor house. As I said, it’s nothing personal; it’s just math.
But somehow, this math escaped the Fed’s researchers and policy makers as a problem. Well, turns out it is. And it’s now knocking loudly on the world’s door. The deflation monster has arrived.
The only possible way to rationalize such an increase in debt is to convince oneself that economic growth will come roaring back, and make it all okay. But the world is now ten years into an era of structurally weak GDP and there are no signs that high growth is coming back any time soon, if ever.
So the entire edifice of debt-funded growth is now being called into question -- at least by those who are paying attention or who aren't hopelessly blinkered by a belief system rooted in the high net energy growth paradigms of the past.
At any rate, I started the chart in 1970 because it was in 1971 that the US broke the dollar’s linkage to gold. The rest of the world complained for a bit at the time, but politicians everywhere quickly realized that the loss of the golden tether also allowed them to spend with wild abandon and rack up huge deficits. So it was wildly popular.
As long as everybody played along, this game of borrowing and then borrowing some more was fun. In one of the greatest circular backrubs of all time, the central banks and banking systems of the developed world all bought each other’s debt, pretending as if it all made sense somehow:

(Source)
The above charts show how hopelessly entangled the worldwide web of debt has become. Yes, it's all made possible by the delusion that somehow being owed money by an insolvent entity will endlessly prevent your own insolvency from being revealed. How much longer can that delusion last?
All of this is really just the terminal sign of a major credit bubble -- a credit era, if you will -- drawing to a close.
I will once again rely upon this quote by Ludwig Von Mises because apparently its message has not yet sunk in everywhere it should have:

“ There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
~ Ludwig Von Mises
​

Well, the central banks of the world could not bring themselves to voluntarily end the credit expansion – that would have taken real courage.
So now we are facing something far worse.
[h=2]Why The Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008[/h]I’m not just calling for another run of the mill bear market for equities, but for the unwinding of the largest and most ill-conceived credit bubble in all of history. Equities are a side story to a larger one.
It’s global and it’s huge. This deflationary monster has no equal in all of history, so there’s not a lot of history to guide us here.
At Peak Prosperity we favor the model that predicts ‘first the deflation, then the inflation’ or the "Ka-Poom! Theory" as Erik Janszen at iTulip described it. While it may seem that we are many years away from runaway inflation (and some are doubting it will or ever could arrive again), here’s how that will probably unfold.
Faced with the prospect of watching the entire financial world burn to the figurative ground (if not literal in some locations), or doing something, the central banks will opt for doing something.
Given that their efforts have not yielded the desired or necessary results, what can they realistically do that they haven't already?
The next thing is to give money to Main Street.
That is, give money to the people instead of the banks. Obviously puffing up bank balance sheets and income statements has only made the banks richer. Nobody else besides a very tiny and already wealthy minority has really benefited. Believe it or not, the central banks are already considering shifting the money spigot towards the public.
You might receive a credit to your bank account courtesy of the Fed. Or you might receive a tax rebate for last year. Maybe even a tax holiday for this year, with the central bank monetizing the resulting federal deficits.
Either way, money will be printed out of thin air and given to you. That’s what’s coming next. Possibly after a failed attempt at demanding negative interest rates from the banks. But coming it is.
This "helicopter money" spree will juice the system one last time, stoking the flames of inflation. And while the central banks assume they can control what happens next, I think they cannot.
Once people lose faith in their currency all bets are off. The smart people will be those who take their fresh central bank money and spend it before the next guy.
In Part 2: Why This Next Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008 we look at what is most likely to happen next, how bad things could potentially get, and what steps each of us can and should be taking now -- in advance of the approaching rout -- to position ourselves for safety (and for prosperity, too)
Click here to read Part 2 of this report (free executive summary, enrollment required for full access)

 

[tiznow]

Oil is crashing down again.

$1.49/gallon gaz here we come...

:cripwalk:

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...ageroot/2016/01-overflow/20160117_oilgold.jpg

coukdnt get image to post .. Highest Gold/oil ratio in last 40 so years..

market just really flooded with oil moving into a major global recession .. Oil will be a screaming buy in year or less..

 

[tiznow]

Here's what many years of zirp/ez money gets ya.. The obvious outcome..

the "solutions" at the bottom of course make zero mention of global central banking policies...
-----------

The 62 richest people have as much wealth as half the world

January 17
NEW YORK
The world's 62 richest billionaires have as much wealth as the bottom half of theworld's population, according to a new report from Oxfam International.
The wealthiest have seen their net worth soar over the five years ending in 2015. Back in 2010, it took 388 mega-rich people to own as much as half the world.
And the Top 1% own more than everyone else combined -- a milestone reached in 2015, a year earlier than Oxfam had predicted.

Oxfam released its annual report ahead of the World Economic Forum in the Swiss city of Davos, a yearly gathering of political and financial leaders. The study draws from the Forbes annual list of billionaires and Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Databook.
Related: How Hillary Clinton wants to make the rich pay their 'fair share'
The anti-poverty group, whose leader co-chaired the forum last year, wants to call even more attention to the widening wealth divide. The top 62 saw their net worth rise by more half a trillion dollars between 2010 and 2015, while the 3.6 billion people in the bottom half of the heap lost a trillion dollars.
Each group has $1.76 trillion.
"Wealth is moving rapidly to concentrate at the tippy, tippy top of the pyramid," said Gawain Kripke, the director of policy and research at Oxfam America.
The income gap between the richest and poorest is also growing. The poorest 20% of the world -- who live below the extreme poverty line, living on less than $1.90 a day -- barely saw their incomes budge between 1988 and 2011, while the most prosperous 10% enjoyed a 46% jump.
"The global economy is not working to pull these people out of extreme poverty," said Deborah Hardoon, Oxfam'sdeputy head of research.
A separate report published last year by the Pew Research Center found that poverty worldwide has fallen by nearly half over the past decade. Still, 71% of the world's population remain low-income or poor, living off $10 or less a day.
As for a global middle class, Pew called it more promise than reality. While the middle class has nearly doubled over the decade to 13% in 2011, it still represents a small fraction of the world's population.
Related: The rich are paying more in taxes, but not as much as they once were
To help counter inequality, Oxfam is renewing its call for global leaders to crack down on tax havens, where the rich have socked away $7.6 trillion, the group estimates.
Other things Oxfam is advocating: pay workers a living wage and protect workers' right to unionize; end the gender pay gap and promote equal inheritance and land rights for women; minimize the power of big business and lobbyists on governments; shift the tax burden away from labor and consumption and towards wealth and capital gains, and use public spending to tackle inequality.

 

[eek.]

shift the tax burden away from labor and consumption and towards wealth and capital gains, and use public spending to tackle inequality.

That's so... socialist!
Knew you'd figure it out in the end Tiz

Easier to tax income at 80-90% for high earners though, and leave any accumulated wealth

Death taxes were used by the UK government in the post war period to take money away from guys like Bill Gates and leave the family with a few million.
The sons and daughters of the deceased then had to earn their own billions, if they were capable of it. In most cases, they weren't

Once you realise it's all just a big ponzi game then big taxes make more sense

 

[eek.]

Oxfam says wealth of richest 1% equal to other 99%

It takes cash and assets worth $68,800 (£48,300) to get into the top 10%, and $760,000 (£533,000) to be in the 1%. That means that if you own an average house in London without a mortgage, you are probably in the 1%.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-35339475


So the level of inequality is pretty amazing, considering how little you need to be in the top 10% in the world

It's a ponzi scheme with the people at the bottom working themselves to death to keep the pyramid going

 

[eek.]

The rich need lotsa poor people to keep their system going, the more poor you have, the better it is for the rich, unless you go too far of course and end up with a French Revolution or Russian Revolution breaking out

The worst period for the rich over the last 2000 years was during/after the black death/plague period when there was a shortage of people to work the land
A poor person could arrive at a village where all the people had been wiped out and instantly work their own plot of land, any rich people who had survived had to get out and work their land themselves, or starve.

 

[eek.]

Bitcoin: Is the crypto-currency doomed?

The problem with all systems, that work in theory, and why they are doomed to fail

Capitalism. Socialism. And now it looks like Bitcoin could be next.

The problem, the weakness in any system, is People.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-35343561

[h=3]The resolution of the Bitcoin experiment[/h]
https://medium.com/@octskyward/the-resolution-of-the-bitcoin-experiment-dabb30201f7#.k2yy199ha

 

[tiznow]

shift the tax burden away from labor and consumption and towards wealth and capital gains, and use public spending to tackle inequality.

That's so... socialist!
Knew you'd figure it out in the end Tiz

Easier to tax income at 80-90% for high earners though, and leave any accumulated wealth

Death taxes were used by the UK government in the post war period to take money away from guys like Bill Gates and leave the family with a few million.
The sons and daughters of the deceased then had to earn their own billions, if they were capable of it. In most cases, they weren't

Once you realise it's all just a big ponzi game then big taxes make more sense

i was just posting for the inequality numbers

obviously it's one big ponzi..

if if we had true free markets (not rigged for the big guys).. System that wasn't allowed to create as much debt as they please.. A society that has increasingly become dependent on the tit of government... Things would be much better eek

helk you want mega socialism look at Saudi Arabia 80% employed by government.. Now they are going to have to tell the masses they gonna have to pay more for gas and only get one Mercedes! Socialism always fails cause it breeds laziness lack of incentive to invent and create new things.. Stagnant society where the big guys protect the status quo.. And the little guys just sit around and do nothing sucking on the tit of government.....now they in trouble..

same thing increasingly happening in us hoards of unemployed doing nothing but sitting around cashing welfare checks..

 

[tiznow]

The large spike in inequality the last several years has little to do with lack of enough socialism and everything to do with western central banks going hard core QE/zirp which favors the rich and asset bubble creation...

equalization on will occur to some degree during this next crash the global elite have already lost trillions since markets started to tank

 

[snoop]

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defa...ageroot/2016/01-overflow/20160117_oilgold.jpg

coukdnt get image to post .. Highest Gold/oil ratio in last 40 so years..

market just really flooded with oil moving into a major global recession .. Oil will be a screaming buy in year or less..

Likely it will bottom out @$20-$22.

 

[tiznow]

Who knows what number the bottom .. Oil on par or cheaper than bottled water in many countries now pretty funny...