sell! sell! sell!

[eek.]

My own solution, as a socialist, would be to tax the ass off the rich because they own everything anyway and end up sucking all the wealth out of the system

At 20% it takes them 1-2 years to strip a years wealth creation out of the system
At 80% it will take them 6-7 years to fleece the system, allowing more money to flow down to the peasants

The peasants spend it on stuff that the rich all own anyway, so the rich are going to get all your cash in the end, sooner or later, modern global capitalism is just a glorified ponzi scheme with an element of risk

 

[eek.]

All government taxes ever do is temporarily change the direction of the money flow for a finite period, which is into the bank accounts of the 10% who own 80% of the system

 

[tiznow]

Futures down over 450 . Any rally attempts will be heavily shorted into . Nothing will stop this downtrend now until the Fed steps back in

[h=1]SocGen: "Markets Have Lost Faith In Monetary Policies"[/h]Aside from a few skeptical strategists, SocGen's economists such as Michala Marcussen, have been ever so happy to drink the Kool-Aid of a US, and global, recovery that never comes and of a rate hike which until a few weeks ago was "imminent"... and suddenly isn't even though nothing in the US economy has supposedly deteriorated. Which is why we were very surprised to read a note from none other than Marcussen, in which the formerly hopiumy economist , confirms what we have always known: that sooner or later, everyone will admit the truth.
From SocGen

Less confidence in central bank puts
As noted above, the most notable feature of recent market price action is that there has been no visible comfort taken on risky assets from the idea that central banks may step in with further liquidity injections to alleviate the situation. To our minds, this reflects two main points. First, the fact that the tremendous amounts of liquidity injected to date have produced less than spectacular economic results. Clearly, markets have lost faith in the ability of unorthodox monetary policies to kick start the economy over time. This also fits the findings of academic literature suggestion diminishing returns from subsequent rounds of QE. Second, central banks have clearly become more concerned about the potential risks to financial stability from indefinitely inflating asset prices, suggesting that they may be slower to step in.
Should the current situation - contrary to our expectations - spill over to a full blown crisis, we have little doubt that central banks would act. The lesson from the last crisis was that as the crisis deepened, central banks became more unorthodox in their approach. While part of the debt service costs of the public sector have been monetised (as central banks hand back profits from the carry of government bonds to the government coffers), actual debt has not been monetised. Moreover, political constraints have kept fiscal policy considerations in check in the bulk of the major economies. This raises an interesting question on whether fiscal policy expansion, backed by central banks, becomes the tool to fight the next crisis.
​

* * *
So... central bank intervention does little (or nothing, as the St. Louis Fed admitted as well), and yet SocGen has "little doubt that central banks would act."
Come to think of it, so do we, because while the world knows Einstein's definition of insanity, here is what his definition of idiot would be: a central banker.
As such, perhaps it is worth reminding readers that from the very beginning of this website, we predicted that the unleashing of QE, first in the US, and then everywhere else - the biggest policy mistake ever conducted by central bankers everywhere - has just one very logical ending: helicopter paradrops.

 

[snoop]

If the dow/s&p close below 16000/1920 today it is setting up for another leg down to 15400/1860.

 

[MrSeanHiggs]

At what number should I be looking to buy something?

 

[PatsFan1283]

Atleast this time there is no way the blame won't be placed on the failure of central banking. In '08, it was easier to focus on bad lending because that was a much easier issue to fix rather than the way we've used monetary policy for the last 25 years.

This type of failure should be good in the long run but who knows.

 

[tiznow]

Ya mean handing out 0% money to everybody and their mom for 8 years while savers get poked up the ass and forced into risk plays which are now crashing is a bad idea? Who woulda thunk... Just QE more ... I'm sure it will work this time...

only remedy to our problems is pain and lesson learning ... Delay tactics and prop games only gonna make it worse...

 

[tiznow]

Speaking of that here's a guy from St. Louis fed questioning QE effectiveness

https://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2015/2015-015.pdf

 

[PatsFan1283]

Really can't describe how good/lucky I feel right now. Selling Friday morning best decision ever

 

[tiznow]

In the matter of days back to levels from March/April 2014.. That's how the game is played into today's fed/bankster/Wall Street created boom/bust casino market.. Suck u in day by day slow but surely than suddenly rug pulled...

 

[tiznow]

It's due for a bounce .. Trying now.. bears get really choppy.. Don't be surprised to see green close today.. The opening shots have been fired sit back and watch the fireworks...

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah it'll take some time. Staggering to see all the names off 10% at open. What a disaster.

 

[tiznow]

Here's where we are these days from a historical valuation standpoint..

http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

2008 didn't dig deep enough.. Just barely got below historical median.. Once fed becomes
powerless/will less to do anything other than let it play out we likely will dip well into the sub median area since we've been above median for so long the past 20-25 years..

 

[PatsFan1283]

I don't necessarily agree with that. I've said it before on this board as well.

Historical PE is very well because for most of US history, stocks were low. Now you have far more participation in the market among middle class, affluent, institutional funds, global investors, etc.

Not saying it won't trend towards that direction but I mostly historical PEs/divi yields to be an innaccurate gauge of where we're going.

 

[tiznow]

I have no idea the number but would guess somewhere around 90% of world population doesn't own one stock... Probably higher than 90..

Get outside your east coast bubble and think big picture

top 1% own large majority of it.. Guys like gates continuously dumping Microsoft stock to the masses as much as he can..

 

[PatsFan1283]

I have no idea the number but would get 80-90% of world population doesn't own one stock...

Get outside your east coast bubble and think big picture

Yeah but in the 40s to 80s pre-deferred comp, how many owned stocks? The market was far more inefficient then than it is now.

I just don't think something like JNJ earning 4.5% at 13 PE is ever going to be the norm again.

Although if we had a period of rates like we had back then, then stocks would maybe trend toward historical valuation. Can you see why I think that feels impossible right now though? Once you go ZIRP it takes awhile to go back.

 

[tiznow]

Only reason valuations so high right now cause u can't get shit on money in the bank... Most of your big companies aren't growing at all.. It's all fluff through share buybacks/overworking their workers/merger and acquisition etc..

 

[PatsFan1283]

Only reason valuations so high right now cause u can't get shit on money in the bank... Most of your big companies aren't growing at all.. It's all fluff through share buybacks/overworking their workers/merger and acquisition etc..

Yeah I agree with that but you still have more $ going into the market than in past generations. This is why I see the "normal" PE in a "normal" environment (if we ever even get back to that) around 20-22ish rather than 13-15ish.

While most companies not growing domestically, there is going to be a growing global demand over the next 20-40 years for them to expand profits. Provided WW3 with China doesn't happen.

China is really interesting in all of this, they might be having a 1929 moment.

 

[tiznow]

Hilarious stuff we so scroomed...

as as always when thing go bad it's somebody else's fault we are America we can do no wrong!!!! Rally around the flag... Guess this is how empires die and just the "natural" course of things ?

"As I have long stated, we are so tied in with China and Asia that their markets are now taking the U.S. market down. Get smart U.S.A." Trump tweeted.
He added in a separate Tweet: "Markets are crashing - all caused by poor planning and allowing China and Asia to dictate the agenda. This could get very messy! Vote Trump."

 

[PatsFan1283]

Hilarious stuff we so scroomed...

as as always when thing go bad it's somebody else's fault we are America we can do no wrong!!!! Rally around the flag... Guess this is how empires die and just the "natural" course of things 

"As I have long stated, we are so tied in with China and Asia that their markets are now taking the U.S. market down. Get smart U.S.A." Trump tweeted.
He added in a separate Tweet: "Markets are crashing - all caused by poor planning and allowing China and Asia to dictate the agenda. This could get very messy! Vote Trump."

Yeah that will play in Iowa too. Populist rhetoric at the backdrop of a global recession and people looking for change.

Where have we seen this before