I think Im going to head to the bar earlier than usual tonight.
By looking at most of my precious metals holdings, Im only drinking the top shelf stuff tonight.
Anyone got a basketball lock for me so I can bet something and have a reason to watch the scoreboard?
yeah hellah, that auy stock will be much higher than 100 before this bull market is finished.
:drink:
By looking at most of my precious metals holdings, Im only drinking the top shelf stuff tonight.
Anyone got a basketball lock for me so I can bet something and have a reason to watch the scoreboard?
yeah hellah, that auy stock will be much higher than 100 before this bull market is finished.
:drink:
long way action will be choppy all the way down
should rival 2000-2002 bear i'm guessing
as i've said before IMO secular bear started in 2000, average lifespan 17 years, last 5 years cyclical bull in a secular bear which was aided by currency debasement (in nominal terms we didn't get back to 2000 highs especially on the techie front), easy credit, massive debt, etc....time to pay the piper
never too late to join the party.
you are too smart a guy to stand in front of a freighttrain, but since you already own some precious metals you will do ok.
this is no short term hiccup for real estate.
this us real estate (and its going to take economy along for the ride) is a rewind and repeat of japan post 1989....at least.
nikkei 39k to 7k
residential real estate across the entire country avg price fell 75%
commercial real estate '' '' '' '' '' '' fell 90+%.
this happened in japan during a 15 year period 1989-2004.
stay tuned for the same movie is coming to a town near you and I and most of us here.
they cut interest rates to 0% but it didnt matter after the real estate bubbles' cherry was popped.
%^_
husker, hellah and I have been friends for years and he will be the first to tell you that Ive been a gold gold bull since near the start of this decade.
I wish I had been posting here then.
We have a long way to go with the precious metals bull market.
there will be hiccups, bumps, and doubters the entire way higher.
once they all finally buy (and trust me they eventually will), we will find something else to buy.
until then, close your eyes, wear ear plugs, plug your nose, do whatever you have to do to stay on the back of this bull market.
those that can even come close to staying on board while the bull runs its course are going to make staggering amounts of money.
yes its similar but japan had better fundamentals during its bear market for the average japanese family had the equivalent of 100k each in savings.
in the us we are in hock above our eyeballs. top asset here is real estate and thats possibly the largest bubble the world has seen in centuries.
the emperor having no clothes is no longer a myth, its a modern day fact and unfortunately our country is the naked emperor.
i know i get bashed for making this type of post too often, but i cant really fathom an easy road out of this mess here.
ive tried to help people, but those that choose to bash and/or not listen to us that see whats really happening....let them eat shit and bark at the moon.
in the us we are in hock above our eyeballs. top asset here is real estate and thats possibly the largest bubble the world has seen in centuries.
the emperor having no clothes is no longer a myth, its a modern day fact and unfortunately our country is the naked emperor.
i know i get bashed for making this type of post too often, but i cant really fathom an easy road out of this mess here.
ive tried to help people, but those that choose to bash and/or not listen to us that see whats really happening....let them eat shit and bark at the moon.
yeah no bandaid i see for this mess
not something like S&L that you can isolate and patch up
plus the S&L bailout and the stuff created i think is part of what led to the lending practices we saw in the last 5 years
bailouts just lead to long term problems in the end
plus americans with a no savings, baby boomers ready to retire, living longer etc., obviously makes it hard
not something like S&L that you can isolate and patch up
plus the S&L bailout and the stuff created i think is part of what led to the lending practices we saw in the last 5 years
bailouts just lead to long term problems in the end
plus americans with a no savings, baby boomers ready to retire, living longer etc., obviously makes it hard
AT&T was the one that dropped the ball as far as the late selloff today
was wondering where it orginated from...
-------------------------
AT&T CEO sees consumer softness, shares plunge
Tuesday January 8, 4:07 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc (NYSE:T - News) Chief Executive Randall Stephenson said on Tuesday the phone company was experiencing softness in its consumer business, sending its shares sharply lower in late-day trading.
"We're experiencing softness on the consumer side of the house from the economy," Stephenson told a Citigroup investor conference.
A spokesman for AT&T said the CEO was talking about what the company saw in December.
"Our forecast has not changed. Consumer is a relatively small part of the business and our overall guidance has not changed," said AT&T spokesman Michael Coe, noting that consumers accounted for less than 20 percent of AT&T's revenue.
Stephenson told the conference, which was broadcast over the Web, that the main impact of any economic weakness was on home phones and Internet services, whereas wireless would be the last thing consumers surrender.
AT&T shares fell as much as 10 percent to a day low of $37.19 before recovering to trade at $39.12, still down 4.6 percent.
The sharp drop contributed to a loss of more than 1 percent in both the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index, and also pulled down shares of rival phone company Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ - News) by 2.6 percent to $41.82.
Qwest Communications International Inc (NYSE:Q - News) shares were down nearly 6 percent at $6.14.
"Up to now, the telcos have put on a very brave face and have suggested that they haven't really seen any signs of economic weakness. That's really reinforced the idea that telcos are the ideal defenses," said Craig Moffett, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.
"Today's comment by Randall Stephenson is the first crack in that armor and suggests that maybe the old view that telcos are immune to the economy just doesn't hold true anymore."
---------------------------------------------
AT&T (T - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is feeling the pinch as consumer spending dips amid hotter competition in its core phone business.
The nation's largest telco said it is seeing "softness" in its consumer business, while business services remain stable. The comments came during a presentation by CEO Randall Stephenson at Citi's Media and Technology Conference in Phoenix Tuesday.
The news blindsided investors, who quickly sent AT&T shares down 10%.
AT&T has seen numerous customers flee to cable companies like Comcast (CMCSA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Time Warner Cable (TWC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which have been making strong inroads with rival phone service plans.
The company also has been a disappointment on the video front with its U-Verse offering. The network makeover project promised to add compelling video service to its service bundle, but the product has hit some challenges.
Without a compelling triple play bundle, AT&T is feeling outgunned in some markets, say analysts.
Late last year, AT&T was very interested in acquiring EchoStar (DISH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), the Dish network operator, as a quicker way to execute a national video strategy. Those plans ultimately deteriorated.
Telco rival Verizon (VZ - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) has turned a corner on its own costly video project with solid growth and diminishing expenses. Verizon shares were also knocked down on the AT&T news, falling $2.01 to $40.91 Tuesday.
was wondering where it orginated from...
-------------------------
AT&T CEO sees consumer softness, shares plunge
Tuesday January 8, 4:07 pm ET
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AT&T Inc (NYSE:T - News) Chief Executive Randall Stephenson said on Tuesday the phone company was experiencing softness in its consumer business, sending its shares sharply lower in late-day trading.
"We're experiencing softness on the consumer side of the house from the economy," Stephenson told a Citigroup investor conference.
A spokesman for AT&T said the CEO was talking about what the company saw in December.
"Our forecast has not changed. Consumer is a relatively small part of the business and our overall guidance has not changed," said AT&T spokesman Michael Coe, noting that consumers accounted for less than 20 percent of AT&T's revenue.
Stephenson told the conference, which was broadcast over the Web, that the main impact of any economic weakness was on home phones and Internet services, whereas wireless would be the last thing consumers surrender.
AT&T shares fell as much as 10 percent to a day low of $37.19 before recovering to trade at $39.12, still down 4.6 percent.
The sharp drop contributed to a loss of more than 1 percent in both the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 index, and also pulled down shares of rival phone company Verizon Communications Inc (NYSE:VZ - News) by 2.6 percent to $41.82.
Qwest Communications International Inc (NYSE:Q - News) shares were down nearly 6 percent at $6.14.
"Up to now, the telcos have put on a very brave face and have suggested that they haven't really seen any signs of economic weakness. That's really reinforced the idea that telcos are the ideal defenses," said Craig Moffett, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.
"Today's comment by Randall Stephenson is the first crack in that armor and suggests that maybe the old view that telcos are immune to the economy just doesn't hold true anymore."
---------------------------------------------
AT&T (T - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) is feeling the pinch as consumer spending dips amid hotter competition in its core phone business.
The nation's largest telco said it is seeing "softness" in its consumer business, while business services remain stable. The comments came during a presentation by CEO Randall Stephenson at Citi's Media and Technology Conference in Phoenix Tuesday.
The news blindsided investors, who quickly sent AT&T shares down 10%.
AT&T has seen numerous customers flee to cable companies like Comcast (CMCSA - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) and Time Warner Cable (TWC - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr), which have been making strong inroads with rival phone service plans.
The company also has been a disappointment on the video front with its U-Verse offering. The network makeover project promised to add compelling video service to its service bundle, but the product has hit some challenges.
Without a compelling triple play bundle, AT&T is feeling outgunned in some markets, say analysts.
Late last year, AT&T was very interested in acquiring EchoStar (DISH - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating), the Dish network operator, as a quicker way to execute a national video strategy. Those plans ultimately deteriorated.
Telco rival Verizon (VZ - Cramer's Take - Stockpickr - Rating) has turned a corner on its own costly video project with solid growth and diminishing expenses. Verizon shares were also knocked down on the AT&T news, falling $2.01 to $40.91 Tuesday.
tiznow, let me know if you think something different, but I see the only option for the govt and wall street is to inflate away the debt.
of course that doesnt really "solve" the problem, but its a way they can wiggle around and give a thousand other excuses to place the blame when the world awakens and realizes the american economy is toast.
other countries are at risk since not only is america bankrupt, it has a 500lb gorilla sized military to blow up and take things if push comes to shove.
kind of like running into a group of nfl sized guys in a dark alley that have growling bellies and empty pockets.
of course that doesnt really "solve" the problem, but its a way they can wiggle around and give a thousand other excuses to place the blame when the world awakens and realizes the american economy is toast.
other countries are at risk since not only is america bankrupt, it has a 500lb gorilla sized military to blow up and take things if push comes to shove.
kind of like running into a group of nfl sized guys in a dark alley that have growling bellies and empty pockets.
your probably right but something in me makes me a bit tentative on the gold front even though i own a decent amount of physical
think at some point we many see deflation like we saw in japan, as everybody flees everything for cash in order to be able to pay for food at the grocery store or whatever, doubt we get to a point we are trading gold for goods if we do ranting about economics will be the least of my worries....
i really don't know the end game cause it all depends on what the fed does but to date obviously they are going the way of what you speak
continue to cut rates and debase the currency
but what happens when we get to zero?
what's weird to date is the rest of the world seems to be holding up better than we are
was thinking countries like china would be falling on their face right about now...but than again the unwind has only begun
my number #1 position right now is short about half
the other half of my holdings split up between physical gold, conservative longs, and cash
I think the deflation has been and will continue being in specific sectors.
Things such as housing, cars, clothes, computers, wages, etc will deflate.
Things such as gold, oil, wheat, various other forms of food, basically nearly all commodities with a few exceptions are going to inflate.
Some of the commodity inflation will be via a declining dollar, but the bulk of the commodity inflation will be a direct result of the growth in Asia and other underdeveloped nations.
Things such as housing, cars, clothes, computers, wages, etc will deflate.
Things such as gold, oil, wheat, various other forms of food, basically nearly all commodities with a few exceptions are going to inflate.
Some of the commodity inflation will be via a declining dollar, but the bulk of the commodity inflation will be a direct result of the growth in Asia and other underdeveloped nations.
well oil will fade when consumption dies, china has so much overcapacity if our consumer totally dies, i definetely wouldn't be long oil right now
i don't see how asia grows without us, they haven't built up domestic demand enough, the big cities are booming, but the peasant poor farmers which is still a bulk of their population are dealing with rampant inflation
part of wheat's problem is weather related, huge droughts in australia
corn and other foods problem related to the ethanol sham
ethanol from corn will fall on its face hard
agree somewhat about oil being at risk of a depression here in usa overall demand will certainly fall.
however, if production also falls. there are no new oil fields being brought online to offset oil fields decreasing their current production.
chinese market will eventually collapse just like the american market collapsed during 1800s and early 1900s.
thats when I will be buying large amounts of chinese shares and thats when I hit the final homerun and cash out for good.
I just hope Im young enough to be able to still jog around the block and fuck my half dozen concubines when that buying opportunity happens.
however, if production also falls. there are no new oil fields being brought online to offset oil fields decreasing their current production.
chinese market will eventually collapse just like the american market collapsed during 1800s and early 1900s.
thats when I will be buying large amounts of chinese shares and thats when I hit the final homerun and cash out for good.
I just hope Im young enough to be able to still jog around the block and fuck my half dozen concubines when that buying opportunity happens.
well oil all about economics too
canada in the tar sands has more oil than the ME, just not economical unless prices are where they are now
canada now is our biggest importer of foreign oil
don't think you'll see oil over 120 in your or my lifetime for that matter, and could drop big, if we indeed hit a nasty global recession
well if we do see 120 plus USD will be going the way of the peso lets put it that way
canada in the tar sands has more oil than the ME, just not economical unless prices are where they are now
canada now is our biggest importer of foreign oil
don't think you'll see oil over 120 in your or my lifetime for that matter, and could drop big, if we indeed hit a nasty global recession
well if we do see 120 plus USD will be going the way of the peso lets put it that way
