Second Shot: Guru's Golden Picks Week 4

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You play... to win... the game
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Back within 9... gotta have a defensive stop at this point...

If anyone cares, our grand salami just went over if my math is right... and if not, we'll get there shortly. Still got at least 20 points to be shared between LA and SJ.
 

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13 minutes left in the game and Kaleo's got 300 yards... ANOTHER bomb for a TD.

Back up 16... SJ has GOT to start scoring and onside kicking
 

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Yeah, this one wasn't a bomb... it was a run... 36 yards... when guys are running for 36 yards, you're done. Sorry about all of this guys. I fell into a massive trap and it cost us big time.
 

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Saberkitties back on the board again... back within 9 again... can't believe they didn't go for 2 here to try making it 8.
 

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At least SJ TRIED to onside kick this time... no avail though... after a clipping penalty, first and goal from the 19 for LA... no doubt in my mind they're gonna score now... should've taken the incomplete pass instead.
 

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Holy hell, a quasi stop... gotta be kidding me that San Jose is actually showing signs of life again... So that's the key. Gotta give LA a short field. None of this bomb crap when you start 10 yards away from the end zone... 61-49 Avengers, SJ getting the ball...
 

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Yeah, now we're done... Turnover Saberkitties... no shot of covering anything... Knew it was a trap... Just knew it.
 

Last night I drank enough to kill a small Asian fa
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Man, Columbus is gonna have a better record than the defending champs after this game......thats nuts
 

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True to form... SJ scores... misses the 2pt conversion... can't catch a break today. Onside kick pending.
 

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26 straight scoreless minutes in Vegas... terrible luck... terrible.
 

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Holy cow... SJ TD... 68-61 PAT pending... maybe something went right....
 

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LA needs to go forward twice more and this one's over and we can sneak out of here with out 2nd half stolen... but with my luck, they'll score a TD...
 

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Oh boy, as long as San Jose doesn't screw this one up, our 2nd half is covered... 71-62 LA with SJ getting the ball... just don't give the ball back we stole one.
 

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Wow, TD SJ... they're within 2... 71-69 with 18 seconds left... Don't give up hope yet... This is the AFL we're talking about... Though if SJ doesn't recover the onsider, they're done. If SJ ends up winning by 1 somehow, we get our money back on the teaser!
 

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San Jose covered the 2nd half somehow... thanks to that one "stop"... aka onside kick. Actually, they made a great effort at the end to try to win it. LakersFan was treated to a great game. 71-69 LA. Bastards are 3-1 now... unreal...

Anyway, here's the recap on the week and season...

Sides Record: 6-5 (+4.73 units)
Totals Record: 8-3 (+9.45 units)
Parlays: 1-2 (+0.55 units)
2nd half: 2-3 (-1.87 units)
Teasers: 0-1 (-3 units)
Props: 0-1 (-1 unit)

Composite Record

YTD: 17-15 (53.1%)
Net: +8.86 units

Recap for the week....

Orlando at Dallas under 98.5 W (+2.86 units)
Chicago (-13.5) @ Columbus L (-2 units)
New York vs. Nashville over 100.5 W (+1.9 units)
New York vs. Nashville under 51 2nd half W (+1.43 units)
Chicago -3 w/ SJ -1 L (-3 units)
Colorado @ Arizona under 52 2nd half L (-3 units)
New Orleans vs. Philly over 101 W (+2.86 units)
San Jose -8 @ Los Angeles L (-4 units)
Georgia @ Las Vegas over 93 L (-2.5 units)
Prop bet, 2-pt or safety L (-1 unit)
San Jose -6.5 @ LA 2nd half W (+2.70 units)

Record: 5-6... lousy week where I played too much stuff
Net: -3.75 units

Once again, I apologize for the lousy week. I played too much stuff and got caught up against my own logics. I'll be a bit more selective next week when choosing games.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 

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Season win totals updates... And projected nets of current

Arizona under 10: Arizona looks real bad at 1-3... put it in the temporary win column (+2.20 units)

Austin under 6: 1-3... great job beating Grand Rapids... may finish 1-15 if they keep this up... (+2.61 units)

Columbus under 7: nice story beating Chicago, but this isn't keeping up... push at worst, but I'll stick it in the temporary win column... (+2.49 units)

Dallas under 6: probably looks the worst of all of the picks right now... At 3-1 I'm not convinced Dallas gets to 7, but I'll stick it in the loss column where it will probably end up. (-4 units)

Los Angeles under 9: I'm not dignifying this with a response... I still don't think LA gets there, especially with 2 left with Arizona, who's bound to get better, and a trip to SJ... there's one certain loss at least... (-2 units)

Nashville over 5.5: The Kats have looked better than 1-3 suggests, but for now, I've gotta throw them in the loss column though I think this will reverse itself soon... (-3 units)

New Orleans over 9: This one looks solid with the Voodoo at 3-1 with some impressive wins... but the conference schedule hasn't gotten going yet, and with 4 dates including next week with the Storm and Preds on the horizon, this can take a bad turn real fast... but for now, the win column it goes... 7-5 the rest of the way will do it... (+3.81 units)

Orlando over 9.5: Probably the best lock on the board right now, though Orlando dropping to 3-3 over the next two weeks is a distinct possibility. Look for the Preds to take one from New Orleans, and four more between the meetings with Georgia, Tampa, and Austin... Road matches with Chicago and Philly along with home meetings with San Jose, New York, and Los Angeles should easily provide the win total since only 2 of the 5 are necessary... New York and LA are going to be easy games for Orlando.... (+3.81 units)

All that being said, this is what it WOULD boil down to if the season ended today...

5-3 (+5.92 units)

That being said, it's a long season still ahead... but I figured I owe you all the recap and good news after the lousy week when somehow I missed both ends of a teaser... That's a bad, bad feeling.

--AFLGuru:toast:
 
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Back from the Ban
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To Guru

We all really appreciate what you are doing. You devote a ton of time to this board, and don't get a whole lot of thanks. There isn't anyone close to you out there. So here's to you Guru :toast: . A complete moron (me) outpicked you this week, truly exemplifying the addage that this is a marathon and not a sprint. So to me and the haters :finger: . Keep it up man, it's been a rough week, things will get better.

Bud
 

Rx Scrub
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was a great experience today going to that game.it sucked it didnt go our way but i didnt let that bother me.as for you AG you were right +82 ended up being the difference maker he single handidly switched the momentum in this game once he put that pick in the end zone it seemed san jose was shell shocked and rebounded nicely just needed another 5-6 minutes.oh well worth the trip and more to come.
 

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