All odds have it that this is an under 2nd half...But with the way this week has gone, no surprise if the game breaks the season record for points... With the way the game has gone, you might see 140 scored after all in this one. Lots of onsiders might come in the 2nd half.
Officially over... now it's a matter of whether New Orleans can hang on and help our win total for the season or not. I hope Vegas keeps giving respect to this Philly team... still not gonna make the playoffs. I'll be pulling for one more score to get over everyone's number and move me to 8-2 against the closing line in initial picks...
Yeah, in case anyone isn't keeping track, I'm 9-1 against the opening line, and 8-2 in those games against the closing line... meaning maybe it's time to fade San Jose... lol... At least one more pick and a prop coming later... need some more info first... As soon as I finish collecting data, I'll let you all know.
--AFLGuru
Yeah, in case anyone isn't keeping track, I'm 9-1 against the opening line, and 8-2 in those games against the closing line... meaning maybe it's time to fade San Jose... lol... At least one more pick and a prop coming later... need some more info first... As soon as I finish collecting data, I'll let you all know.
--AFLGuru
Late notes on the San Jose game...
Apparently, Calvin Schexynader isn't playing either. This is a real bad situation for the WR corps of San Jose. However... I still estimate this San Jose team, even sans 2/3 of their WR corps as a much better team than this LA team, which I rank in the bottom 5 of the AFL despite their record... Congrats on beating Georgia on a terribly long road trip and a short week, and a terrible Austin team. We'll see what happens... But the more guys I see out in this game for San Jose, the more that I believe we might have a problem...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Apparently, Calvin Schexynader isn't playing either. This is a real bad situation for the WR corps of San Jose. However... I still estimate this San Jose team, even sans 2/3 of their WR corps as a much better team than this LA team, which I rank in the bottom 5 of the AFL despite their record... Congrats on beating Georgia on a terribly long road trip and a short week, and a terrible Austin team. We'll see what happens... But the more guys I see out in this game for San Jose, the more that I believe we might have a problem...
--AFLGuru:toast:
It seems like the questionable quality of LA's wins have already been worked into the line. I don't see any real value in the misleading records. I mean 8.5 is pretty steep for a team that would probably open at 3 on a neutral field. I realize at home they would be bet up pretty big but this still seems like a big number to cover. Add in the WR's problems and the fact that maybe LA has filled in their QB, OS and DB positions rather decently. San Jose hasn't won on the road this year. No such thing as being do. I don't see a whole lot of value betting San Jose. Now I must put my disclaimer in: I am no AFL "guru." These are just observations, I figure asking some questions is good for all of us. I am not betting LA, I just wanted to post some observations.
TampaLuke--
A lot of this bet hinged on Schexenayder playing... Schexenayder, Wagner, and Roe is just as good as any WR trio in the league... but without Schex it's gonna be rough... That being said, you're right that LA's losses are factored into this and San Jose gets a ton of respect for being San Jose. In actuality, San Jose's might be 0-2 on the road, but that's at Tampa (3-1) and at New Orleans (3-1). New Orleans has lost a total of once at home in a season and change and Tampa is always a tough place to play. These are also cross-country trips.
I don't know... I understand why the value isn't there at 8.5 or whatever it's at right now, but I think San Jose is just due to put up a San Jose game. You might say that there's no such thing as "due" and there's an equal shot (in theory) that a team covers any given game, but the fact of the matter says that no one is going to go worse than 6-10 ATS. SJ is 1-2. LA is 2-1. Yes, it's early in the season, but San Jose against the one team they really should've crushed, they did... Vegas... and it was Vegas' only loss.
So all that being said, San Jose is still the superior team, and on a neutral field, they probably would have been 10-12 point favorites, and at home, probably 13.5 or so... you're going to see AFL lines tighten up very soon, as the teams that will typically destroy people at home... Tampa, San Jose, a healthy Arizona, Chicago, etc. will start destroying these lesser teams and not cover. Expect lines in the 20s by week 7 or so. And when these two teams hook up later in the season in San Jose, the Saberkitties will likely be one of the double digit home favorites again... and they'll probably not only win, but also cover the figure. I just don't think this LA team is any good. We'll see in a couple hours. If they beat San Jose, they've got a huge lead in the division over the "real" teams. But again, the way this season has gone, who knows...
--AFLGuru:toast:
A lot of this bet hinged on Schexenayder playing... Schexenayder, Wagner, and Roe is just as good as any WR trio in the league... but without Schex it's gonna be rough... That being said, you're right that LA's losses are factored into this and San Jose gets a ton of respect for being San Jose. In actuality, San Jose's might be 0-2 on the road, but that's at Tampa (3-1) and at New Orleans (3-1). New Orleans has lost a total of once at home in a season and change and Tampa is always a tough place to play. These are also cross-country trips.
I don't know... I understand why the value isn't there at 8.5 or whatever it's at right now, but I think San Jose is just due to put up a San Jose game. You might say that there's no such thing as "due" and there's an equal shot (in theory) that a team covers any given game, but the fact of the matter says that no one is going to go worse than 6-10 ATS. SJ is 1-2. LA is 2-1. Yes, it's early in the season, but San Jose against the one team they really should've crushed, they did... Vegas... and it was Vegas' only loss.
So all that being said, San Jose is still the superior team, and on a neutral field, they probably would have been 10-12 point favorites, and at home, probably 13.5 or so... you're going to see AFL lines tighten up very soon, as the teams that will typically destroy people at home... Tampa, San Jose, a healthy Arizona, Chicago, etc. will start destroying these lesser teams and not cover. Expect lines in the 20s by week 7 or so. And when these two teams hook up later in the season in San Jose, the Saberkitties will likely be one of the double digit home favorites again... and they'll probably not only win, but also cover the figure. I just don't think this LA team is any good. We'll see in a couple hours. If they beat San Jose, they've got a huge lead in the division over the "real" teams. But again, the way this season has gone, who knows...
--AFLGuru:toast:
Geeze--
I believe he's referring to LA's inflated record, not mine... The stuff between Luke and I were in fun and games of the Tampa/Orlando rivalry and will surely spark once again in a few weeks when we play again. But this one is all good stuff. Good analysis on the game, and he's mentioning that the line is inflated because of LA's suspect wins, not having anything to do with me as a capper.
Pretty sure anyway... I don't think anything wrong of it.
--AFLGuru
I believe he's referring to LA's inflated record, not mine... The stuff between Luke and I were in fun and games of the Tampa/Orlando rivalry and will surely spark once again in a few weeks when we play again. But this one is all good stuff. Good analysis on the game, and he's mentioning that the line is inflated because of LA's suspect wins, not having anything to do with me as a capper.
Pretty sure anyway... I don't think anything wrong of it.
--AFLGuru
Two plays adding...
Prop: Will there be a 2-pt conversion or safety in the SJ/LA game? YES (1 unit +131): Percentage play... hasn't been a safety or successful 2-pt conversion yet this week. It's due. Safeties happen in one out of every 2.5 games in the AFL... add that to the possibility of the 2 point conversion... too good of odds to not hit for a small unit.
Georgia @ Las Vegas over 93 (2.5 units +108): Again, percentage play. Don't be blinded by some of the stats involved in this game. Las Vegas averages less than 40 points per game, and Georgia allows less than 45 a game. Should be an easy under... But this number is ridiculously low and can easily happen in any AFL game. Las Vegas' defense is very good. I'm not going to lie to you. Rod Robinson has a successful week under his belt against New York. His major problem was two picks into the end zone inside the 5 yard line. Both teams have pretty lousy red zone offenses, which could be the factor that burns us in this one. Both teams are amongst the least penalized in the AFL. Jim Kubiak is my #2 rated passer in the AFL (I believe he's #4 by AFL standards). Running a fluent offense right now despite not putting up dynamite point totals. Both teams are due in this one, and I think that we'll see a game in the high 90s or low 100s.
--AFLGuru:toast:
Prop: Will there be a 2-pt conversion or safety in the SJ/LA game? YES (1 unit +131): Percentage play... hasn't been a safety or successful 2-pt conversion yet this week. It's due. Safeties happen in one out of every 2.5 games in the AFL... add that to the possibility of the 2 point conversion... too good of odds to not hit for a small unit.
Georgia @ Las Vegas over 93 (2.5 units +108): Again, percentage play. Don't be blinded by some of the stats involved in this game. Las Vegas averages less than 40 points per game, and Georgia allows less than 45 a game. Should be an easy under... But this number is ridiculously low and can easily happen in any AFL game. Las Vegas' defense is very good. I'm not going to lie to you. Rod Robinson has a successful week under his belt against New York. His major problem was two picks into the end zone inside the 5 yard line. Both teams have pretty lousy red zone offenses, which could be the factor that burns us in this one. Both teams are amongst the least penalized in the AFL. Jim Kubiak is my #2 rated passer in the AFL (I believe he's #4 by AFL standards). Running a fluent offense right now despite not putting up dynamite point totals. Both teams are due in this one, and I think that we'll see a game in the high 90s or low 100s.
--AFLGuru:toast:
