Saturday 9/6/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Michigan State at Oregon
By Brian Edwards

Matchup: Michigan State at Oregon
Venue: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Date: Saturday, Sept. 6, 2014
Time/TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Line: Oregon -12, Over/Under 56

The marquee matchup of Week 2 will take place at Autzen Stadium in Eugene where Oregon (1-0 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) will play host to Michigan State. This is a great opportunity for both schools to get a resume-building victory, while the loser will have plenty of time to recover and can still get to the College Football Playoff.

As of early Friday afternoon, most books had Oregon favored by 12 or 12.5 with a total of 56. Gamblers can take the Spartans on the money line for a +350 return (risk $100 to win $350).

Mark Helfrich's team rolled to a 62-13 season-opening win over South Dakota last week, but the Ducks failed to cover the enormous 52-point spread. The 75 combined points went 'over' the 71.5-point total with 9:21 remaining.

Marcus Mariota completed 14-of-20 passes for 267 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. The Heisman Trophy candidate ran six times for 43 yards and another score. Byron Marshall had eight carries for 90 yards while also catching eight balls for 132 yards and a pair of TDs. Royce Freeman, the Ducks' top recruit in the 2014 class, had 10 carries for 75 yards and a pair of TDs, including a 26-yard TD scamper midway through the second quarter.

Michigan State (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) cruised past Jacksonville St. by a 45-7 count as a 34-point home 'chalk' in its opener last Friday (note the extra day of rest that should compensate for the day of travel). Connor Cook connected on 12-of-13 throws for 285 yards and three TDs without an interception. Nick Hill rushed for a pair of scores and Tony Lippett finished with four catches for 167 yards and two TDs.

This is the 15th straight game in which Oregon has been favored by a double-digit margin. The Ducks cashed tickets at an 8-5 ATS clip last season.

Michigan St. owns a 10-6 spread record as a road underdog during Mark Dantonio's eight-year tenure. The last time the Spartans were double-digit 'dogs was at Notre Dame in 2009, when they covered the number in a nail-biting 33-30 loss to the Fighting Irish as 10-point puppies. Sparty owns a 2-1 ATS ledger in three games as a double-digit 'dog on Dantonio's watch.

Whether at home or on the road or at a neutral site, Michigan St. has taken the cash in eight consecutive underdog situations, winning outright in five of those spots. Going back to October of 2011, the Spartans are 10-1 ATS with six outright victories in their last 11 games as 'dogs.

Both teams will play without a pair of expected starters. Oregon's Bralon Addison, who had 61 receptions for 890 yards and seven TDs, remains out after tearing his ACL in the spring. Addison was a second-team All Pac-12 selection last year. Another All Pac-12 second-teamer, OT Tyler Johnstone, was lost to a season-ending ACL tear in August.

Sparty won't have nose tackle Damon Knox or OG Connor Kruse.

Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Cook has a 26/7 career TD-INT ratio.

-- Baylor WR Levi Norwood is out for at least three weeks after suffering a wrist injury that will require surgery. Norwood, who had 47 receptions for 733 yards and eight TDs in 2013, hopes to return for the Bears' next tough game -- at Texas on Oct. 4. Baylor will also be without Antwan Goodley (quad) this week against Northwestern St. Goodley had a team-high 71 catches for 1,339 yards and 13 TDs last season.

-- Most spots have South Carolina favored by 16.5 over East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 26-20 ATS as home favorites during Steve Spurrier's tenure, while the Pirates are 5-10 ATS as road underdogs under Ruffin McNeill.

-- East Carolina QB Shane Carden has a 59/20 career TD-INT ratio. He's poised to overtake David Garrard as ECU's all-time leader in passing yards later this year. Carden has a big-time WR in Justin Hardy, who is already the Pirates' all-time leader in receiving yards. This combo will pose another tough challenge for a South Carolina secondary that got torched by Texas A&M last week.

-- A pair of former Gator QBs led their new teams to victories last weekend. Boston College's Tyler Murphy completed 17-of-24 passes for 173 yards with one TD and one interception. He also rushed 13 times for 118 yards and one score in the Eagles' 30-7 win at Massachusetts as 17-point road favorites. Jacoby Brissett, who sat out last season after transferring from Florida, sparked North Carolina St. to a 24-23 come-from-behind win over Ga. Southern. Brissett connected on 28-of-40 throws for 291 yards with a 3/1 TD-INT ratio.

-- One of the biggest stars of Week 1 was Rutgers RB Paul James, who looked like a beast in the Scarlet Knights' 41-38 win at Washington St. James produced 173 rushing yards and three TDs on 29 totes in what was a huge win for Kyle Flood's team.

-- Western Kentucky QB Brandon Doughty was a turnover machine in a blowout loss at Tennessee last year. But in last week's 59-31 win over Bowling Green, Doughty completed 46-of-56 passes for 569 yards and six TDs without a pick.

-- Speaking of the Falcons, they won't have QB Matt Johnson for the rest of the season after he sustained a hip injury in the loss. Johnson threw for 3,467 yards with a 25/7 TD-INT ratio while leading Bowling Green to 10 wins in 2013.

-- As if Northwestern hadn't caught enough bad breaks over the last 12 months, piss-poor news struck again Thursday when Tony Jones was declared 'out' of Saturday's home game vs. No. Illinois. Jones had a team-high 55 receptions last season and had team-bests in catches (seven) and yards (64) in last week's 31-24 home loss to California. The Wildcats are already without their other best WR Christian Jones, who tore his ACL in August.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Trojans, Cardinal on tap in Week 2

Things to watch in Week 2 of Pac-12 play, including the first conference game:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 14 Southern California at No. 13 Stanford. There will be no easing into the conference season for the Trojans and Cardinal. The games between cross-division rivals are almost always tight and usually have national implications. Three of the past four games between USC and Stanford were either decided by last-second field goals or in triple overtime. The Trojans derailed the Cardinal's national-title hopes with a victory last season and Stanford took down USC when it was ranked No. 2 in 2012. The Cardinal are the two-time Pac-12 champions and USC appears to be back to its high-octane offensive form under new coach Steve Sarkisian. Should be a good one.

BEST MATCHUP: Oregon's offense against Michigan State's defense. The third-ranked Ducks have become the standard bearers for up-tempo offenses, running teams ragged while piling up yards and points. They'll face one of the nation's stingiest defenses against the seventh-ranked Spartans in a game that will be a head-to-head battle of strengths. One of the nation's best non-conference games, one that could have playoff implications, and it comes in the second week of the season.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: The Pac-12 went 10-2 in the opening week, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 478-213. Six Pac-12 teams scored at least 45 points in their opener. ... The Pac-12 had three of the top 10 offensive performances of Week 1. Arizona led the nation with a school-record 787 total yards against UNLV, USC was fourth with 701 against Fresno State and Oregon was No. 7 with 673 against South Dakota. ... The conference had plenty of new faces in Week 1, with 75 freshmen seeing action. USC had the most with 11, followed by the 10 each who played for Oregon and Utah.

LONG SHOT: New Mexico against No. 17 Arizona State. The Lobos have one of the nation's best running games and a hard-to-defend triple option, but their defense is not on the same level as the offense. That doesn't bode well against an explosive offensive team like the Sun Devils, who are 25-point favorites.

IMPACT PLAYER: Connor Halliday, Washington State. The Cougars' quarterback got his season off to a rousing start, throwing for 532 yards - second-best nationally - and five TDs, though his team lost to Rutgers. This week's game against Nevada could be another offensive show.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big 12 league play begins in Week 2

Things to watch in Week 2 of Big 12 play, including the first conference game:

GAME OF THE WEEK: No. 20 Kansas State at Iowa State in the season's first game that counts in the Big 12 standings. Iowa State opened with a 34-14 loss to North Dakota State, the FCS champion that also beat Kansas State in the 2013 season opener. Cyclones coach Paul Rhoads said having the conference opener after a disappointing loss is ''really good for our focus and concentration.'' K-State is playing its earliest league opener since being in the very first Big 12 game the opening week of the 1996 season. ''Normally, you would like for (conference games) to start later on. That would be my feeling,'' Wildcats coach Bill Snyder said. ''Ask me probably about 4 o'clock in the afternoon Saturday, and I'll probably have a better answer for you one way or another.'' The last time Iowa State played a Big 12 game so early was the second game in 2002, also its last win in a conference opener.

BEST MATCHUP: Dual-threat QBs Jake Waters and Sam Richardson. Iowa native Waters was 19-of-28 passing for 223 yards and two touchdowns, and ran 17 times for 55 yards and two more scores in K-State's opener. Richardson accounted for 209 of Iowa State's 253 total yards (20-of-31 passing for 151 yards, with 15 carries for 58 yards).

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: Texas is home Saturday against BYU, whose school-record 550 yards rushing last year were the most ever given up by the Longhorns. The Cougars now have two freshmen listed as offensive line starters. The Texas OL has changed just since last week, with a season-ending injury to the center and both tackles being suspended. ... Texas Tech QB Davis Webb completed 39 of 52 passes for 452 yards with four TDs in a tougher-than-expected 42-35 win over Central Arkansas. Bradley Marquez had 11 catches for 184 yards with two fourth-quarter TDs (70 and 27 yards). While Webb has multiple TD passes in eight of his last nine games, Marquez had averaged three catches for 36 yards his previous 29 career games. On top of that, Red Raiders RB DeAndre Washington is the Big 12 rushing leader after his 104-yard opener.

LONG SHOT: Towson at West Virginia. While the Big 12 has first-week losses to FCS national champion North Dakota State two seasons in a row, 2013 FCS runner-up Towson lost eight returning offensive starters and was upset at home by Central Connecticut in its season opener. The Mountaineers play their home opener after a 33-23 loss to No. 2 Alabama in which they felt they missed several opportunities.

IMPACT PLAYER: Baylor defensive line. The defensive front accounted for seven of the Bears' school record-tying nine sacks in the season-opening 45-0 win over SMU, which was held to only 67 total yards on 64 plays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cougars make adjustments for Week 2

RENO, Nev. (AP) - Nevada's seniors set out to spread a unified message to younger teammates in a shortened week leading up to Friday night's matchup with Washington State: Don't fear the big boys.

''They kind of have that Pac-12 intimidation factor going for them,'' said Wolf Pack defensive end Brock Hekking. ''We've tried to reach out to the younger guys and get them to realize we've faced Pac-12 opponents before ... and won. There's no need to have that fear.''

Maybe easier said than done given the scary numbers Washington State senior quarterback Connor Halliday and his fleet of speedy receivers put up week in and week out.

Halliday was 40-of-56 for 532 yards and five touchdowns in last week's 41-38 season-opening loss to Rutgers in Seattle.

''They are an explosive team,'' second-year Nevada coach Brian Polian said. ''We'll definitely have our hands full.''

Nevada counters with senior quarterback Cody Fajardo, who passed for 303 yards and ran for 68 in Saturday's 29-19 season-opening win over Southern Utah.

Hekking made his first start in Nevada's last win over a Pac-12 opponent, at California in 2012. But he remembers his debut as a freshman the year before when he ''absolutely'' was intimidated and blew an assignment on his second play, leading to a 69-yard touchdown in a 69-20 loss at Oregon.

''They had me on the wheel route - `Brock, you go the wheel route,''' Hekking said. ''And as soon as they said `hike,' everything just froze. I saw the quarterback so I just ran after him. They threw it over, scored a touchdown. Got yelled at.''

''Once you get that out of your system, things flow a little bit better. ... I wish someone would have reached out to me when I was young and told me that.''

Washington State coach Mike Leach said he was glad 16 Cougars who had never started before got significant playing time last week. He said inexperience in the defensive backfield is his biggest concern.

''Most of them played pretty good for their first time,'' Leach said. ''We've got a lot of people we've got to break in but we're definitely better. ... (Nevada's) guys are an older team.''

Things to watch as Nevada hosts Washington State:

QUALITY QUARTERBACKS: Leach said Halliday proved himself one of the best quarterbacks in the nation last year when he led Washington State to its first bowl game in a decade, passing for a school-record 4,597 yards and 34 touchdowns.

Fajardo's 371 yards of total offense last week leave him 32 shy of joining Colin Kaepernick (2007-10) and David Neill (1998-01) in Nevada's 10,000 yard club. He completed 68 percent of his passes last year for 2,668 yards with 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

RUNNING COUGARS, NOT: Washington State only ran the ball eight times last week and Polian expects more of the same.

''They are going to do what they do,'' he said.

He hopes his rushing attack can keep the Cougars' hurry-up offense off the field - at least in spurts - to give his defense a chance to catch its breath. ''Obviously, we've got to try to slow them down ... try to make their offense go a long way and not give up explosives.''

DON'T COUNT YOUR TOUCHDOWNS: Leach's last trip to Reno was with Texas Tech in a 35-19 victory in 2008 that was expected to be a shootout with Kaepernick going against a Texas Tech squad that featured wideout Michael Crabtree, now his 49ers teammate.

''It was a funny game,'' Leach said. ''Supposed to be a huge offensive shootout and both defenses played extremely well.''

SHAKING UP SECONDARY: Washington State's defense gave up a long touchdown pass on Rutger's first play from scrimmage last week, and coaches have decided to shake up the inexperienced secondary.

Defensive backs Tracy Clark and Teondray Caldwell are no longer in the starting lineup. Charleston White and Darius Lemora will start instead.

SCENIC ENVIRONMENT: Nevada is hoping to approach a sellout at 29,993-seat Mackay Stadium with a whiteout planned for the ESPN broadcast. ''It's an interesting environment, sort of a scenic place,'' Leach said. ''The locker room you literally come out in the crowd. You've got fans right beside you screaming and hollering.''

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Total Notes - Week 2
By Chris David

Week 1 Recap
According to our closing numbers on the major games in college football, the ‘under’ produced a 26-20 mark in Week 1 of the holiday season. I didn’t include the results from the “Extra Games” but we will touch on a few schools that both bullied and struggled in Week 1 below. Fortunately for us, VegasInsider.com college football expert James Manos returns with his Week 2 analysis on the total landscape. Manos offered up his thoughts on the opening weekend.

“I thought the sportsbooks did their best job of posting totals for Week 1 in the last three years. However, they were murdered by sharp syndicate action on a few games they completely botched the lines. In particular, the Bowling Green-Western Kentucky matchup. All of the big money movers won almost all the totals they moved on in Week 1,” explained Manos.

Big Five Notes (ACC, Big 12, Big 10, Pac-12, SEC)

The ACC watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in Week 1. Pittsburgh (62) and North Carolina (56) both lit up the scoreboard while Miami, Fl. (13) looked like the most inept team offensively. Manos didn’t like what he saw from the Hurricanes in Week 1.

He said, “Miami is going to be in trouble if they don't get better QB play. Golden has always been at his best as a HC when he can run the ball and play defense. He has the RB in Duke Johnson but with poor quality QB play, teams can stack the box to stop him. On Monday night the Hurricanes gave Johnson 20 carries that netted just 90 yards. I think Golden's only option is continue to feed Johnson and perhaps get him involved in the passing game even more (just one catch for 5 yards on Monday). With that strategy and an improved defense, Miami may play UNDER some of the high totals they are likely to see.”

The ‘over’ went 3-2 in Big 12 lined games and two of the offensive surprises were West Virginia and Oklahoma State, who scored 23 and 33 against Alabama and Florida State respectively. If you’re looking at an ‘under’ team, then check out Iowa State. The Cyclones were overwhelmed 34-14 by North Dakota State and they lost their top offensive player for the season, WR Quenton Bundrage.

Manos is very high on the FCS school. “North Dakota St. continues to field an FBS caliber defense on the FCS level. NDSU has won the past three FCS National Championships, all of those on the backs of quality defenses, but I don't think I've ever seen an FCS team have this sort of maintained defensive dominance for such an extended period. Last year the Bison allowed just 11.3 PPG and with 7 returning starters they seemed to be in good shape for this season as well. All the Bison did was go into Ames, Iowa (no easy place to play) and hold a Big XII team with 10 returning offensive starters to 14 points, 16 FD's, and just 253 yards of total offense. This is the 5th straight year that NDSU has defeated an FBS team and in those 5 games they've allowed a total of 69 points (13.8 ppg). Amazing!”

The Big Ten saw the ‘over’ go 6-3 in Week 1. Six of the 14 schools scored 40-plus points, including a league-high 55 by Nebraska.

The Pac-12 has four schools put up 50-plus points in Week 1, which included a 62-point performance by Oregon. While a handful of schools looked sharp offensively, UCLA, Washington, Oregon State and Colorado all struggled. The ‘under’ went 5-4 overall.

Kentucky scored 59 points in Week 1, which led all 14 schools in the SEC. Surprised? Considering the Wildcats haven’t busted 50 point since 2010, we should be. Offense is alive in the SEC and it helped the ‘over’ go 5-4 in Week 1.

Game of the Week – No. 7 Michigan State at No. 3 Oregon (Total 56)

All eyes will be in Eugene, Oregon this Saturday as the Spartans and Ducks square off for the first big matchup of the college football season. James Manos broke down the game for total bettors:

It is interesting to know that this is the lowest total on an Oregon game in three years. It' also interesting to note how different the Oregon offense has looked in its last five games vs. a Top 10 defense…..not nearly as good as usual. This will be a battle of styles with Oregon wanting to play up-tempo and make explosive plays and Michigan State wanting to avoid mistakes and play defense.

In a battle that's as dichotomous as this one we'll have to look and see how each team has played vs that style of opponent recently. Michigan State has fielded a Top 10 defense for 3-plus seasons now so let's examine their performances a little. Since 2011 the Spartans, in 39 games, have seen just four non-overtime games vs. FBS teams exceed a 58-point total. But I'd be careful with just assuming that means a low-scoring game here.

Two of those four games came vs. a Russell Wilson lead Wisconsin squad in 2011. The Badgers scored 31 and 42 points in the two meetings that year and I think it's the offense that most resembles the Ducks offense the Spartans will see on Sat. A faster paced team, with an outstanding, experienced QB, leading a team that runs the ball well. Also, interesting to note that the Big 10's only up-tempo team, Indiana, has played to totals of 58 and 70 the last two years vs. MSU running 74 and 83 plays.

I think the Ducks lack the explosive playmakers at the RB position that they've had recently and they'll be facing a VERY good Spartan front seven. The Pac-12 team that most resembles MSU is Stanford and the Cardinals have held the Ducks in check over their last two meetings, holding them to 14 and 20 points.

My offensive efficiency numbers were telling for this game as I have Oregon at 42.4% (my 2nd lowest number for them since 2011) but I made the number 58.5. I'll pass but I bet the Oregon coaches are reviewing those Wisconsin tapes from 2011.

Line Moves

As Manos mentioned above, the professionals did very well in Week 1 with their college football total leans and they’re locked and loaded again for Week 2. He said, “Those same sharp totals bettors have already picked off some low hanging fruit for this weekend. The Kansas State-Iowa State opened 60.5 and has been bet down to 54.5. What were the bookmakers thinking here? The Arkansas State-Tennessee has jumped from 51 to 57. Colorado-UMass was bet down from 54 to 49.5 and the Air Force-Wyoming game was also dropped, going from 58.5 to 51.5. I agree with all of these four major moves or what many would call mistakes by the books.”

Listed below are all of the total moves by 3 or more points based on openers from CRIS.

Week 2 Total Moves

Matchup Open Current
Kansas State at Iowa State 60.5 55
SMU at North Texas 52.5 44
Buffalo at Army 55.5 52
Arkansas State at Tennessee 51 58
Western Kentucky at Illinois 64 67
New Mexico State at Georgia State 60.5 65
Colorado at UMass 54 49
USC at Stanford 51 54
Idaho at UL Monroe 58 52.5
Georgia Tech at Tulane 52.5 55.5
Maryland at South Florida 50 53
BYU at Texas 51 46
Virginia Tech at Ohio State 50 47
Memphis at UCLA 53 56.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

USC TROJANS (1-0) at STANFORD CARDINAL (1-0)
Line & Total: Stanford -3 (-105) & 54
Opening Line & Total: Cardinal -4 & 51

After two dominating victories in their season openers against inferior opponents, No. 14 USC and No. 13 Stanford look to start the Pac-12 conference season with a win on Saturday.

The Trojans offense at times had its struggles last season, but if Week 1 was any indication of how this unit will perform this season, look out. QB Cody Kessler threw for 394 yards and four touchdowns in a 52-13 win over Fresno State, and appears poised for a big season. USC has lost the past two times the teams have met in Palo Alto, but it did cover the spread in the 2012 defeat. Last season, the teams played a very competitive game in southern California, with the Trojans winning by field goal, 20-17. Kessler came up big in that victory, throwing for 288 yards and one touchdown. The Cardinal were able to run the ball very efficiently in that loss though, gaining 210 yards on 35 carries (6.0 YPC), but were unable to get the job done through the air (127 passing yards).

Quarterback Kevin Hogan was very efficient in last week’s 45-0 season opening victory against UC Davis (12-of-16, 204 yards), and he will need that type of performance to help Stanford get payback for last season’s loss. Last year, RB Tyler Gaffney rushed for 158 yards in the matchup, but he is no longer with the team. If there was one negative for the Cardinal in Week 1, it was that the team averaged only 4.7 rushing yards per carry, something that could hurt them in this matchup.

The loss last season snapped a four-game winning streak against USC, which was the longest in school history for Stanford. Although home teams that had a poor passing defense last season (58% comp. pct. or worse) with five returning offensive starters are 23-55 ATS (30%) in the past 10 seasons, home favorites coming off a win by 35+ points facing an opponent after playing a game with 60+ total points scored are 149-84 ATS (64%).

USC has a few bumps and bruises with RB Tre Madden (toe) doubtful to play on Saturday and WR Steven Mitchell, OL Khaliel Rodgers, OG Jordan Simmons and OL Damien Mama all questionable with knee injuries, but Stanford will be without LBs Kevin Palma and Joe Hemschoot, who have undisclosed injuries.

The Steve Sarkisian era got off to a fast start at USC, as the team resembled the high-scoring offenses of the mid-2000’s with 701 total yards (424 passing, 277 rushing). With Kessler having another year under his belt, he is running the offense at a different level. Top WR Nelson Agholor (5 catches, 57 yards, 2 TD) is one of the elite receivers in the country, and with much of the defensive attention focused on him, it was another receiver that emerged as a potential star for the Trojans. JuJu Smith had four catches for 123 yards in his first career game. Wearing the same number that Marqise Lee wore, Smith displayed *much of the same big-play ability of the former Trojans star. With defenses focusing on Agoholor, Smith is going to have a lot of one-on-one matchups down the middle of the field.

The passing game of the Trojans could be one of the best in the country this season, but the ground game of USC has a chance to be equally as good. RB Javorius Allen (22 rush, 123 yards, 1 TD) is a big power running back that has the ability to wear out an opponent. His ability to run the ball is going to make the Trojans offense nearly impossible to game-plan for.

The defense of the Trojans was equally as impressive in the season opener, intercepting the Bulldogs four times while putting constant pressure on the Fresno State quarterbacks. S Gerald Bowman (five tackles, 1 INT) was the leader in a deep and talented secondary on Saturday. USC is an extremely fast defense that loves to fly to the ball. However, it will be tested differently on Saturday against a smash-mouth style of offense.

Stanford is coming into this game off a big Week 1 against UC Davis. In that shutout victory, QB Kevin Hogan played very efficiently, but versus USC he will have to take some more chances down field to keep the Trojans defenders from stacking the box. WR Ty Montgomery is one of the elite playmakers in all of college football. In the opener, he had a 44-yard touchdown catch, as well as a 67-yard punt return. He has become a much more polished receiver the past two seasons, and now is a much better route runner.

At the running back position, the Cardinal have another explosive player in RB Barry Sanders Jr. who had 51 yards on nine touches last week, which matched his nine touches all of last season (73 yards). The knock on the 5-foot-10, 192-pound Sanders is that he does not have the size and stature to be a 30-carry workhorse, but because of his great speed, Sanders does have a chance to score any time he touches the ball. Against USC, look for Stanford to move him around on the field, trying to line him up in the slot against a linebacker. The Cardinal have the explosive offensive players, and they will need to make those types of plays in this game.

However, the strength of the team, just like the past few seasons, is the defense. In Week 1, the unit allowed only 115 yards and pitched a shutout. LB A.J. Tarpley led the team with six tackles against UC Davis, but this defense is the type of unit where a player may not stand out a lot. The Cardinal fly to the ball on the defense, and play very fundamental and sound football. They are very disciplined, and that will be a big thing to watch in this game. If they stay in their lanes and remain focused on their assignments, the Cardinal should be able to make things difficult for USC's offense.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (1-0) at OREGON DUCKS (1-0)
Line & Total: Oregon -12 & 56.5
Opening Line & Total: Ducks -11 & 56

The marquee game of the week takes place in Eugene on Saturday as No. 3 Oregon plays host to No. 7 Michigan State.

The defending Rose Bowl champion Spartans got the 2014 season started off by defeating Jacksonville State, 45-7. Despite taking a big hit below his knee, Spartans QB Connor Cook (12-of-13, 285 yards, 3 TD) was still able to perform at a high level. Michigan State has been known as more of a physical style of team, but is really emerging as a great passing team too. The Spartans have not beaten a Top 25 on the road since defeating Michigan in 2010 (34-17), and will face a team in Oregon that has not lost a home non-conference game since Sept. 20, 2008 to Boise State.

The Ducks once again have one of the most explosive offenses in all of the country, and they showed the big-play ability in a 62-13 Week 1 victory against South Dakota. Heisman trophy candidate QB Marcus Mariota produced 310 total yards of offense and four touchdowns, showing that he is still as explosive as player in college football. Mariota has the ability to beat teams with his arm, but also his legs. In the Oregon spread offense, he is the perfect guy to have leading the charge. Oregon can score in any way, as Charles Nelson took back a punt for a 50-yard touchdown last week.

With the new playoff system in effect for college football, this is the type of game that both teams need to win in order to show the people making the decisions that they deserve to be in the running. Although Mark Dantonio is 21-6 ATS (78%) on the road after an SU win since taking over the Michigan State program, recent history shows that favorites of 10.5 to 21 points coming off a season in which they won 80% of their games are 45-16 ATS (74%), including 35-11 ATS (76%) in non-conference tilts.

Both teams should have their full rosters for this showdown, as RB Jeremy Langford (ankle), WR Macgarrett Kings Jr. (ankle) and OG Travis Jackson (back) are all probable to play. The same goes for Oregon star DB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who injured his ankle last week, but has been upgraded to probable.

The Spartans experienced success against the Pac-12 last season, when they won the Rose Bowl against Stanford. However, the Cardinal are similar to the Big Ten style of football which tries to grind out yards on the ground. Oregon's fast-paced offense is different, and the MSU offense must be ready to put up some points to get the win. The passing game has found its star in WR Tony Lippett, who had four catches for 167 yards and two touchdowns last week. Lippett is not the biggest receiver at 185 pounds, but has the height (6-foot-3) to go up and win the jump-ball battle.

However, what makes him so dangerous is his speed, running as fast as any receiver in the country, and is now the focal point of the Spartans passing game. The Oregon secondary is full of guys that can run with Lippett, but his height advantage will allow Cook to take some chances throwing into coverage. The Spartans have one of the best running backs in the country too in RB Jeremy Langford. While he did not put up big numbers in Week 1 with 57 yards on 13 carries, much of that was because of the big lead and getting experience for other players on the team.

The best way to keep an explosive offense like the Ducks from putting up numbers is by keeping their offense on the sideline, so look for the Spartans to rely on the legs of Langford to chew up the clock. Per usual, the strength of the MSU team is the defense, which is very similar to Stanford, which has had major success against Oregon in the past two seasons.

DE Shilique Calhoun (two tackles and one sack last week) is a relentless pass rusher, but he will be tested in this game. The Spartans are a physical unit, but the Ducks have a lot of guys that have the speed to break it to the outside, and Calhoun will play a big role in not allowing that to happen. CB Darian Hicks is a young ball hawk that is trying to help fill the void left by Darqueze Dennard, and Hicks got off to a nice start in Week 1 with an interception. The Spartans once again have a strong secondary, but you can’t imitate the speed of the Oregon offense in practice.

Mariota is one the top Heisman candidates in the country, and rightfully so after a season of 4,380 total yards and 40 total touchdowns.

Every season the Ducks seem to have a new guy emerge in the backfield, and this season it appears to be RB Byron Marshall, who rushed 13 times for 90 yards in the opener, and also added eight catches for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Marshall is a blur when running the ball. At 205 pounds, he also has the size and power to run up the middle. Another guy in the backfield for the Ducks is Royce Freeman who had 75 yards and two touchdowns in his first career game. At 230 pounds, Freeman is built like former Ducks RB LeGarrette Blount. The Ducks have been missing that power element to its rushing attack, but appear to now have the lethal combination of speed and power.

While the defense does not get much of the talk in Eugene, there are plenty of playmakers on that side of the ball. The defense is similar to the offense in the sense that it is built on its ability to fly to the ball. It is undersized at a few positions, but everyone on the field for the Oregon defense can run. CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu is a true playmaker both in coverage and against the run. He will be put on Lippett a lot of this matchup, and that battle could play a huge role in what team is able to get the victory.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (1-0) at NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (1-0)
Line & Total: Notre Dame -3.5 (-115) & 56.5
Line & Total: Irish -6 & 54.5

A classic battle between Michigan and No. 16 Notre Dame continues this Saturday night in South Bend.

Michigan had a very poor 2013 season, going 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten. The Wolverines look to get back to their old ways after a huge 52-14 victory over Appalachian State to start the season. They scored 42 points before allowing their opponent to score, as they outgained the Mountaineers 560-280. The ground game, which ranked 103rd in the nation last year (125.7 YPG), was impressive in the opener, tallying 350 rushing yards.

Notre Dame had a solid 9-4 season in 2013 and capped it off with a bowl win over Rutgers. The team lost eight players to the NFL Draft, but in the 2014 opener against Rice, the Fighting Irish were victorious by a score of 48-17 as the offense went off for 576 yards.

This will be the last meeting in this storied rivalry for a while with Notre Dame opting out of the last few years in the contract, but the school will be happy not to see them every season after taking losses in four of the past five years to the Wolverines. Last year, Michigan was a 41-30 victor as a 4.5-point favorite against Notre Dame, but the last time these two programs met in South Bend two years ago, the Fighting Irish came away with a 13-6 win as the teams combined for eight turnovers.

Overall since 1992, the Wolverines are 10-7 SU (8-9 ATS) when facing Notre Dame. Some interesting trends to consider for Saturday include that the Irish are a mere 20-38 ATS (34%) after a game where they committed no turnovers since 1992, while Michigan is 5-18 ATS (22%) in road games after gaining 475+ total yards in its previous game over the same amount of time.

There are no significant injuries to either team heading into this heated contest.

Michigan was not too impressive in any areas last year, ranking 46th in scoring (32.2 PPG) on just 373.5 total YPG (87th in FBS).

Most of the offense was through the air, as the Wolverines ranked 52nd in passing yards (247.7 YPG) and QB Devin Gardner is back for his senior season. Against Appalachian State, Gardner was extremely efficient, going 13-of-14 for 173 yards (12.4 YPA) with three touchdowns. Last year, he had an outstanding game in this matchup, completing 21-of-33 throws for 294 yards with five total touchdowns and only 1 INT.

Michigan fans quickly forgot how horrible its running game was last season as HBs Derrick Green (15 rush, 170 yards, 1 TD) and De’Veon Smith (8 rush, 115 yards, 2 TD) both eclipsed 11 YPC last week. Last year, these two backs combined for a meager 387 yards on 109 attempts (3.6 YPC) and two touchdowns as Gardner had 483 rushing yards (2.9 YPC) and 11 TD scampers of his own. WR Devin Funchess has successfully made the transition from tight end, and is the team’s No. 1 receiver, which clearly showed with his seven receptions for 95 yards a three touchdowns against the Mountaineers.

The Michigan defense was solid against the run in 2013 (140.2 YPG, 29th in FBS), but still allowed a pedestrian 26.8 PPG (67th in the nation). The Wolverines should improve this season, as LB Jake Ryan (30 tackles in 2013) returns for a full season and joins leader DB Ray Taylor (86 tackles, 4 INT in 2013).

The Fighting Irish had a very underwhelming offense last year behind the arm of Tommy Rees as they scored a woeful 27.2 PPG (74th in FBS) and averaged 406.2 YPG (68th in nation).

QB Everett Golson returns this year after missing 2013 for academic reasons and was accountable for five touchdowns in the season opener when he went 14-for-22 with 295 yards (13.4 YPA) and 2 TD through the air while running for 41 yards (3.4 YPC) and 3 TD on the ground. The last time he faced the Wolverines in 2012, Golson was horrible with just three completions in eight attempts (30 yards) while throwing two interceptions.

The running game is not led by just one player, as HBs Cam McDaniel (8 rush, 40 yards) and Tarean Folston (12 rush, 71 yards) lead the charge, while HB Greg Bryant (8 rush, 71 yards, 1 TD) could be a major factor if he continues to play well.

The receivers are the biggest question mark on the team and WR William Fuller was the top target in the first game (4 rec., 85 yards, 1 TD) leading seven different players that caught a pass. The best returning receiver is sophomore WR Chris Brown who had 209 yards on 15 catches (13.9 avg) in 2013, and he opened 2014 with two grabs for 20 yards.

The defense has many new players with just five students returning to the unit that ranked in the top-35 in scoring defense (22.4 PPG), total defense (366.2 YPG) and passing defense (198.2 YPG) last year. LB Jaylon Smith (66 tackles, 1 INT in 2013) should anchor the defense’s rushing protection while DBs Max Redfield and Austin Collinsworth (43 tackles, 3 INT in 2013) are considered one of the best safety combos in college football.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Football Betting Preview: Michigan at Notre Dame
By Teddy Covers


Opener: Notre Dame -4.5 O/U 54.5
Current: Notre Dame -3.5 O/U 56
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Notre Dame -4
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Michigan has won and covered four of the last five meetings between these two teams, taking control of what had been a very competitive series in recent seasons. In fact, prior to the Wolverines recent success, the taking the underdog plus the points had been the prevailing theme, winning outright in nine of the previous 12 meetings. And, of course, with Michigan catching points in South Bend on Saturday, the trends clearly point towards the Wolverines as live underdogs here.

The Wolverines went through an ugly 0-5 SU and ATS run as an underdog heading into last November, but they covered three straight in that role down the stretch last year, finally showing success when catching points in hostile environments. And with an experienced senior signal caller in Devin Gardner, there’s little reason to expect Michigan to have any sort of dramatic home/road dichotomy in 2014.

Gardner was certainly dynamic in the Wolverines opener last weekend, although the level of competition wasn’t particularly high – Appalachian State in 2014 is a long, long way down from the App State team that upset the Wolverines in the Big House back in 2007. Michigan’s offense was nearly unstoppable in that contest, producing touchdowns on six of their first eight drives.

Reports out of Ann Arbor have made it clear that the Wolverines have no shortage of quality skill position talent surrounding their senior QB. Running backs De’Veon Smith and Derrick Green both ripped off 60+ yard touchdown scampers last week , while Devin Funchess caught three TD passes. And despite losing a pair of offensive line starters to the NFL draft this past offseason, the Wolverines continue to stockpile blue chip recruits on that OL; a unit that still looks strong.

Notre Dame spent the offseason installing a new defensive scheme under new coordinator Brian VanGorder, and their stop unit had to replace five starters from their front seven, including a handful of NFL draft choices. The defense performed well against Rice last week, but Michigan is a much tougher test for a somewhat suspect stop unit.

But Notre Dame’s offense looked extremely impressive in their blowout over Rice last weekend, a tougher foe than the Wolverines faced. After punting on their first two drives, the Irish started to click, producing touchdowns or field goal tries on nine of their final ten possessions.

In particular, QB Everett Golson looked brilliant in his return to South Bend; the same QB who guided the Irish to the national championship game as a freshman two years ago. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly following the game in which his QB averaged more than 13 yards per pass ATTEMPT: “There's a lot of things that he will tell you that he's got to continue to improve on, but there's a confidence that he carries with him that is starting to emanate.”

Notre Dame certainly isn’t short on skill position talent surrounding Golson; loaded with playmaking weapons. And the Wolverines defense is coming off their worst season of the Brady Hoke era, with concerns both on the defensive line and in the secondary.

Last year’s game was a 41-30 shootout won by the Wolverines; the fourth time in the last five meetings that the losing team has scored 24 or more. No surprise here if BOTH teams get into the 30’s again this year, sending this game flying Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN

Week 2 of the college football season has plenty of big spreads bouncing around (FSU -55 *cough* cough*), with FBS programs using poor little FCS schools as punching bags. There are, however, some notable matchups on the calendar and those lines are on the move heading into Saturday’s slate.

We talk with Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest and most interesting adjustments on the Week 2 board:

Missouri Tigers at Toledo Rockets – Open: +6, Move: +3.5

Toledo is no stranger to tough competition and the sharp money knows it. According to the MGM properties, the Tigers have twice as many tickets written on them for Week 2 but there’s 15 times more money on the Rockets – setting up a classic sharps vs. squares showdown for this early kickoff.

“Sharps are on one side and the general public is on the other,” Stoneback . “These types of games usually don’t go too well for us.”

Maryland Terrapins at USF Bulls – Open: +10, Move: +13.5

The Terps turned heads in their season opener, exploding for 52 points against FCS James Madison. Action on the this game has been as one sided as you can get, moving the line more than a field goal at some markets.

“It’s amazing. Of all the 12 properties and this line being up since Monday, we haven’t written a single ticket on South Florida,” says Stoneback. “Nobody believes in USF.”

East Carolina Pirates at South Carolina Gamecocks – Open: -13.5, Move: -16.5

Poor, poor East Carolina. The Pirates visit the Gamecocks one week removed from a stunning South Carolina loss at the hands of Texas A&M. Both sharp and public money is piling on the host team, pushing this number as much as a field goal at some shops.

“We have twice as many tickets on South Carolina at this point,” says Stoneback, who opened USC -15 and moved to -16.5. “People see the Gamecocks bouncing back in this one.”

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks – Open: 58, Move: 55.5

Depending on where you play, this total could be going up or down. Online books have trimmed the number to as low as 55.5 while the MGM is reporting steady action on the Over at 56 points and could bump it up before kickoff.

However, Stoneback does see more Under money coming in from wiseguys before the 6:30 p.m. ET kickoff and could bounce this total back and forth all day Saturday.

“The public will likely go Over, only think of Oregon and score, score, score,” he says. “It may creep up and down with wiseguys buying back the Under.”

San Jose State Spartans at Auburn Tigers – Open: 30, Move: 32.5

Faith in the Tigers has this line teetering on a 3-point adjustment. MGM properties in Las Vegas have taken three times more bets on Auburn than San Jose State, including two big limit plays ($5,000) earlier this week.

BYU Cougars at Texas Longhorns – Open: -3.5, Move: +1.5

Injuries to their starting QB and center, as well as the suspension of two offensive linemen, have forced bookmakers to flip the line on this matchup. According to Stoneback, the ticket count is pretty even – with the popularity of the Longhorns keeping it closer – and wouldn’t be surprised to see this line move back toward Texas by kickoff.

“Losing a quarterback at Texas is not like a place like San Jose State losing a QB,” says Stoneback. “We always see Texas money, whether its football or NCAA basketball futures. I’d say their lines could be padded a half a point to a point because of that. BYU, on the other hand, their fans just don’t bet.”

Other moves:

Western Kentucky at Illinois – Open: -7, Move: -5
South Alabama at Kent State – Open: Pick, Move: +3
Fresno State at Utah – Open: -10, Move: -12.5
New Mexico State at Georgia State – Open: -1, Move: +1.5
Ohio at Kentucky – Open: -10, Move: -13
Northern Illinois at Northwestern – Open: -5.5, Move: -7.5
Air Force at Wyoming – Open: -1, Move: +2.5
Oregon State at Hawaii – Open: +12.5, Move: +10

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Essential Week 2 college football betting tidbits

There is plenty of Top 25 action in Week 2 of the college football schedule. If you're having trouble keeping track of it all, here are some essential betting tidbits for all of those ranked matchups:

Citadel Bulldogs at (1) Florida State Seminoles (-55, 64.5)


* The Bulldogs will make sure that Florida State's rush defense is up to snuff. They ran the ball 65 times for 358 yards in their Week 1 loss to Coastal Carolina.


* Expect the scoreboard operator to be busy Saturday evening. Florida State has outscored opponents 224-16 in its four previous home openers under head coach Jimbo Fisher.


Florida Atlantic Owls at (2) Alabama Crimson Tide (-40, 54.5)


* The Owls have certainly been profitable against the spread in road games. They've gone 12-2 ATS in their previous 14 games away from FAU Stadium.


* West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen thinks very highly of Alabama WR Amari Cooper. "No. 9 might be the first overall pick in the draft," he said after the Tide's 33-23 victory in Week 1. Cooper caught 12 balls for 130 yards in the win.

(3) Oklahoma Sooners at Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (+24.5, 57.5)

* Oklahoma is 7-0 against Tulsa under head coach Bob Stoops, with an average margin of victory of 37.3 points. The Sooners are currently favored by 24.5 points.

* The Golden Hurricane certainly don't fare well for the backers early in the season as they are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in September.


(6) Michigan State Spartans at (4) Oregon Ducks (-12, 55.5)


* The Spartans ride an 11-game winning streak into Oregon. That's the second-longest streak behind Florida State's 17-game run. Michigan State is 9-2 ATS over that stretch.


* Liking the Over in this matchup for the Ducks? The Over is 6-2-1 in Oregon's previous nine games versus Big Ten opponents.


San Jose State Spartans at (5) Auburn Tigers (-32.5, 66.5)


* Bettors have been feasting on Auburn for some time now as the Tigers take a 12-game ATS winning streak into Saturday's game with the Spartans.


* The Spartans opened the season with a Week 1 victory, but if history is any indication, they won't knock off Auburn. The Spartans haven't begun a campaign with a 2-0 record since 1987.


Virginia Tech Hokies at (7) Ohio State Buckeyes (-11, 47)


* The Hokies covered in their Week 1 victory over William & Mary, but if you believe in trends, they won't bank this week. The Hokies are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after an ATS win.


* The Buckeyes haven't made their backers happy of late, going 1-5 against the spread in their last six football games.


Northwestern State Demons at (9) Baylor Bears (-47.5, 72.5)


* Demons quarterback Zach Adkins completed 31-of-42 passes for 318 yards in their Week 1 loss to Missouri State.


* Baylor is hosting an FCS school for the 13th consecutive season. The Bears have won the previous 12 by an average of 45 points.

(14) USC Trojans at (10) Stanford Cardinal (-2.5, 54.5)

* The Trojans have been fade material on the road of late, posting just two wins against the spread in their previous 13 road games.

* Stanford WR Ty Montgomery was expected to miss the first half of September after offseason shoulder surgery, but he sure came to play in Stanford's 45-0 rout of UC Davis. Montgomery had five catches for 77 yards and one TD and also opened the scoring with a 60-yard punt return for a TD.

Memphis Tigers at (11) UCLA Bruins (-23, 55.5)

* UCLA's offensive line was abysmal in Week 1 allowing five sacks. Due to constant pressure the team only averaged 4.9 yards per play.

* Memphis has been a stellar total play after winning. Following a SU win, Memphis has an Over/Under record of 3-13.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at (12) LSU Tigers (-31.5, 67)

* LSU owns the nation's longest regular-season non-conference winning streak at 46 games.

* Quarterback Jared Johnson is off to a fast start for the Bearkats with an average of 351.5 passing yards and five touchdowns to five different receivers through the first two games.

Lamar Cardinals at (13) Texas A&M Aggies (-50.5, 77)

* Kenny Hill put all fears to rest for Texas A&M throwing for five touchdowns and helping the team to a 12-of-19 third-down percentage.

* Caleb Berry was no slouch for Lamar, completing 27-of-45 passes for 389 yards and five TDs.

Michigan Wolverines at (15) Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-3.5, 56.5)

* Michigan was firing on all cylinders in Week 1 averaging 10.18 yards per play as well as 9.72 yards per rush.

* The Fighting Irish have not been a good bet after a dominant performance. Notre Dame is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games following a S.U. win of more than 20 points.

(16) Arizona State Sun Devils at New Mexico Lobos (+24.5, 69)

* Looking for a high-octane offense? In two-plus years under offensive coordinator Mike Norvell and coach Todd Graham, 119 of the Sun Devils’ 162 scoring drives have been completed in three minutes or less.

* Both QB Clayton Mitchem and WR Carlos Wiggins could be on the sideline for the Lobos. The two combine accounted for 229 rushing yards last week.

(17) Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt Commodores (+19.5, 49.5)

* The Rebels offense ran through WR Cody Core in Week 1. Core had four receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns.

* Vanderbilt has had bounce back ability for bettors, going 5-0 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss.

McNeese State Cowboys at (18) Nebraska Cornhuskers (-38.5, 65)

* The Cowboys have been surprisingly solid against FBS opponents. With a win over Nebraska, McNeese State will have beaten a FBS team for three straight seasons.

* Few teams have been as dominant at home as the Cornhuskers. In 45 home starts under Bo Pelini the teams has won 36.

Western Illinois Fighting Leathernecks at (19) Wisconsin Badgers (-36.5, 52)

* The Leathernecks are facing a nationally ranked FBS team for the first time since a 35-7 loss to eventual national champion LSU in 2003.

* Wisconsin has won 29 consecutive home games against non-conference opponents - second-best to LSU's 40 among FBS teams - dating to a 23-5 loss to UNLV in 2003.

(20) Kansas State Wildcats at Iowa State Cyclones (+12, 54.5)

* Talk about a tight rivalry. The Wildcats have won the past six straight matches, but five of them were by eight points or fewer.

* The Cyclones offer little value most of the time, going 1-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.

East Carolina Pirates at (21) South Carolina Gamecocks (-16.5, 65)

* The Pirates don't slow down after a high-offensive game. Over is 17-4 in Pirates last 21 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

* When these teams met in 2012, Dylan Thompson started for the Gamecocks in place of injured Connor SHaw. Thompson went off for 330 yards and three touchdowns.

(22) Missouri Tigers at Toledo Rockets (+3.5, 60)

* Missouri has forced at least one turnover in 45 consecutive games, the nation’s longest streak.

* Though Toledo started slow, QB Phillip Ely managed to spark the offense throwing for 337 yards and four touchdowns in Week 1.

San Diego State Aztecs at (23) North Carolina Tar Heels (-15.5, 60)

* The Aztecs have been slow starts for bettors, going 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September.

* The Tar Heels have looked to quickly right a wrong from last season. After recording 20 takeaways for all of 2013, North Carolina forced six turnovers — four fumbles, two interceptions — in the win over Liberty.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at (24) Clemson Tigers (-37, 55.5)

* South Carolina State QB Adrian Kollock completed 15-of-18 passes for 160 yards against Benedict.

* Clemson may as well have just stayed in the locker rooms at halftime as they managed 15 yards of offense in the second half in Week 1.

Brigham Young Cougars at (25) Texas Longhorns (+1, 46)

* BYU has been a great total play out of the gate. In the Cougars last 15 games in September, the under has paid out 12 times.

* The Longhorns will be sending sophomore QB Tyrone Swoopes into the game with his first collegiate start.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Federated Auto Parts 400
By Micah Roberts

This Saturday night at Richmond, Virgina, the old Capital of the Confederacy, we’ve got a wild card race for one entry into NASCAR's playoffs -- the Sprint Cup Chase. There are already 15 drivers (14 officially) that have clinched one of the 16 positions for the 10-race Chase, and 15 more drivers are eligible to get in by simply winning Saturday night.

For three drivers, they have a good shot at getting in by points if none of the 15 candidates vying to make it don’t win. Greg Biffle is currently in 16th-place with a 23-point lead over Clint Bowyer and a 24-point lead over rookie Kyle Larson. Realistically, there are probably nine drivers among the wild cards that could win, and that‘s stretching it.

Because you have so many desperate drivers out there, you can expect a few to make some daring and bold moves, which makes the chance of betting one of the really good drivers -- that have the best chance at winning Saturday -- more prone to be involved in a wreck.

The first thing I like to do before all Richmond races is look at what happened in the first race (Apr. 6) and then refer to similar tracks like Phoenix (Mar. 2) and New Hampshire (July 26). None of those three tracks look alike, but all three are flat with similar layouts less a mile or less. If a driver does well on one, they usually do well on the other.

Kevin Harvick won at Phoenix, Joey Logano won at Richmond and Brad Keselowski won at New Hampshire. In all but Logano’s case, those drivers led the most laps. Jeff Gordon led 173 laps in the first Richmond race until giving the lead up with 38 laps to go. Gordon would eventually finish second. He also finished fifth at Phoenix. Surprisingly, Gordon only has two wins at Richmond, the last coming in 2000.

The obvious theme between all three is the success of the Penke Racing Fords that claim two of the wins. Keselowski has finished no worse than fourth in any of the three races and is probably the best candidate to win for the first time on this track.

Kevin Harvick is a three-time winner at Richmond, the last in the spring of 2013. He led 224 laps en route to a dominant victory at Phoenix and has been fast everywhere on a weekly basis. He should be Keselowksi’s toughest opponent this week with Logano just a small notch below.

Kyle Busch has finished ninth or better on all three tracks this season and boasts four Richmond wins over his career. In 19 starts, he’s average a seventh-place finish, which is amazing considering how volatile the ¾-mile track is.

As for the best chances among drivers that have to win to make the Chase, Clint Bowyer is probably the best candidate not only because of two wins at Richmond, but also because of long-term success at Phoenix and New Hampshire as well. However, all that past success came with Richard Childress, who was also making dominant cars for Harvick. You can be good on a track, and be desperate, but if you don’t have a car that can compete, all that goes out the window. And Bowyer’s car right now isn’t very good.

Look for Biffle to make the Chase and for the Keselowski to be the driver to beat.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keeslowski (7/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1)
3) #22 Joey Logano (7/1)
4) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
5) #24 Jeff Gordon (8/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Michigan State at Oregon

(6) Michigan State Spartans at (4) Oregon Ducks (-12, 55.5)

The calendar just flipped to September but postseason implications will be the focus when No. 4 Oregon hosts No. 6 Michigan State in a non-conference game Saturday afternoon. Both sides have their sights set on qualifying for the inaugural four-team College Football Playoff and the winner of this game could have solid bragging rights come late November. Oregon was among the national leaders in offensive production last season while the Spartans sported one of the top defenses, and both appear to have carried those same strengths into this season.

Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota picked up where he left off last season, throwing for 267 yards and three touchdowns and rushing for another score in a win over South Dakota. The three-year starter and early Heisman Trophy candidate will have his work cut out against a defense that likes to press receivers with its cornerbacks and blitz its linebackers early and often. Connor Cook also continues to improve at quarterback for the Spartans and was in fine form in the season-opening blowout win against Jacksonville State, completing 12-of-13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 6:30 p.m. ET, FOX. LINE: Oregon -12.

LINE HISTORY: The opening line saw Oregon -12 then briefly jumping up to -13 before settling at -12 again. The opening total was originally 58 before quickly falling to 55.5.

INJURY REPORT: Michigan State: QB Connor Cook (Ques-Knee), RB Jeremy Langford (Prob-Leg), WR Macgarrett Kings Jr. (Ques-Leg), OT Travis Jackson (Ques-Back) Oregon: CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu (Prob-Ankle)

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "The Ducks did not disappoint in Week 1, steamrolling an inferior opponent. Marcus Mariota had four TDs (all in the first half). Connor Cook completed 12-of-13 passes for 285 yards and three TDs in Week 1. The Spartans still look like the team to beat in the Big 10." Covers Expert Jesse Schule

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Sharps are liking the dog in this one, as the Ducks have gone from +13 to +11.5 here. 71 percent of cash and 69 percent of all bets are on the Spartans plus the points." - Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (1-0): Spartans running back Jeremy Langford twice hobbled off the field after tweaking his ankle Friday but downplayed the injury earlier this week and appears set to play against the Ducks. Michigan State is also expected to have starting left guard Travis Jackson (back spasms) and punt return specialist Macgarrett Kings (left ankle) in the lineup after they departed early during the Jacksonville State game. Jackson’s return is especially key because the Spartans already lost a starter up front when right guard Connor Kruse went down with a leg injury in the middle of last month.

ABOUT OREGON (1-0): Byron Marshall will have a tough time topping his performance against South Dakota, as he led the Ducks in both rushing and receiving coming out of the slot position. About the only thing he dropped was the football just before he crossed the goal line at the end of what would have been a 54-yard touchdown run. Marshall’s threat, whether on a pass pattern or a handoff, should open things up even more for freshman running back Royce Freeman.

TRENDS:

*Ducks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
*Spartans are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
*Over is 5-1 in Ducks last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
*Under is 5-1-1 in Spartans last 7 games in September.

COVERS CONSENSUS: 60.36 percent of Covers users are taking Michigan State +6 with 64.8 percent taking over 55.5.

 

[cracy]

STATSYSTEMS SPORTS MLB REPORT
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 6th 2014
INFORMATION WORTH BETTING ON EACH DAY
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***** Saturday, 9/6/14 MLB Information *****
(ALL RESULTS VS. ML) - Against The Money-Line - and most recent, unless noted otherwise. Each and every day during the 2014 Major League Baseball season we will analyze all of your daily baseball action, featuring on hot and cold pitchers, hot and cold teams, over/unders and home plate umpire trends. We will also highlight some of our Highly-Rated (Situational & Match-up) Power Trends, along with some of our Situational Analysis (Betting Systems) that pertain to some of that days match-ups.
_____________________________________________________

MLB Betting News and Notes - Week #23
•Padres' Cabrera Picked Up For DUI: Padres infielder Everth Cabrera was arrested Wednesday morning in San Diego for driving under the influence of marijuana, according to a report. U.S. Border Patrol agents initially stopped Cabrera near a freeway checkpoint in San Diego, sensed a problem and called in the California Highway Patrol. After deputies arrived, they arrested Cabrera on suspicion of DUI. Cabrera was taken to a station, where blood was drawn. He was then released to his mother-in-law, TMZ reported. The 27-year-old is currently on the disabled list with a strained hamstring and it's uncertain whether he'll return to play for the Padres before the end of the season.

"We were made aware of an incident involving Everth Cabrera this week, and we take this matter very seriously," the Padres said in a statement released Friday. "We are in the process of gathering information and are in communication with Major League Baseball. We refrain from further comment at this time." In 90 games this year, Cabrera batted .232 with three home runs and 20 RBIs. Other off-the-field issues have affected Cabrera's career. In 2012, he faced a domestic violence charge in Arizona that was dropped, and in 2012 he was suspended for 50 games because of his connection to the Biogenesis scandal.

•Ron Washington Resigns As Rangers Manager: Ron Washington has resigned as manager of the Rangers for personal reasons, both he and the team have announced. Bench coach Tim Bogar will take over as interim manager for the remainder of the season. Here is Washington's statement: “Today, I have submitted my resignation from the job I love – managing the Rangers – in order to devote my full attention to addressing an off-the-field personal matter. As painful as it is, stepping away from the game is what's best for me and my family... This is in no way related to the disappointing performance of the team this season. We were already discussing 2015 and looking forward to getting the Rangers back to postseason contention."

“I deeply regret that I've let down the Rangers organization and our great fans. Over the past eight seasons, it's been a privilege to be part of some of the best years in club history and I will always be grateful for the opportunities I've had here, and for the great management, players, and coaches who have made our time here a success. Thank you for respecting my privacy.” The Rangers issued a statement saying they will not discuss the matter out of respect for Washington's privacy, though they did acknowledge they were planning to move forward with him as their manager.

Washington, 62, had been the team's manager since 2007. They went 664-611 (.521) under his watch, including four straight 90+ win seasons from 2010-13. Washington led the team to the AL pennant in both 2010 and 2011. Back in 2010, Washington told ESPN.com he nearly left baseball after dealing with a cocaine problem. Prior to joining the Rangers, Washington spent the 1996-2006 seasons as a coach with the Athletics. He spent parts of 10 seasons in MLB as a light hitting infielder with five different teams during the 1980s.

•Santana, Vargas Give Twins Reason For Optimism: The Minnesota Twins are on their way to yet another 90-loss campaign, but the end of this season brings with it much more hope than the ones before it. It was an injury-plagued season for some of Minnesota's top prospects, including third baseman Miguel Sano, outfielder Byron Buxton, right-hander Kohl Stewart and shortstop Nick Gordon. On the major league roster, first baseman Joe Mauer, right-hander Ricky Nolasco and right fielder Oswaldo Arcia missed significant time as well. However, spirits are high in Minnesota because of the emergence of two rookies, center fielder Danny Santana and designated hitter Kennys Vargas.

Vargas' story is well-known after a month in the big leagues. He is off to a great start, hitting .314 with a .336 on-base percentage, a .500 slugging percentage, six homers and 31 RBIs through 140 at-bats. In fact, Vargas' big month overshadowed the season of Santana, who if not for Chicago White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu likely would be one of the favorites for the American League Rookie of the Year award. Santana had two more hits Thursday against the Angels, and he is hitting .317 with a .353 on-base percentage, a .474 slugging percentage, seven homers, 37 RBIs and 13 steals in 331 at-bats. Many cautioned those excited about Santana's first month that major league pitching would change their approach to him and his numbers would soon come down.

Indeed, Santana is no longer hitting .375 as he was June 1. However, he is anchoring the top of the lineup and appears to have the ability to do so for the next decade. "He studies the game pretty good. He looks at video, he's paying attention," Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire said. "(He is) studying the game and knowing what they're trying to do to (him) a little bit. I think you've seen Santana with his swing, there's not a whole lot of movement to it. There's not a lot of timing mechanisms, he just kind of flat-foots things, and he has a great set of hands. He sees the ball out of the hand really quick."

Santana also has 32 extra-base hits. "The ball jumps off his bat," Gardenhire said. "He backspins balls really well. They take off from the bat, and you're like 'Wow, a lot more pop than we thought he had,' but I don't think any of us expected this to happen." Santana entered the season as one of the organization's better prospects, and perhaps the top one among infielders. Gardenhire said he was a longtime fan of Santana, but even he is surprised this kind of early, and more important, consistent production the center fielder is providing. "We always thought he was on his way and doing well... but I don't know if any of us expected this to happen," Gardenhire said. "Sometimes people at this level perform better. Right now, he's definitely one of those guys."

•Diamondbacks Fire GM Towers: As the team stumbles toward the end of a disappointing season, the Diamondbacks have fired Kevin Towers as the club's general manager. The team made the announcement Friday morning. The move comes less than four months after the hiring of Tony La Russa as the organization's Chief Baseball Officer, a move that most believed would ultimately lead to changes at the top of the baseball operations department. There was no immediate word on the status of manager Kirk Gibson, though it's unclear if that means he is assured of returning next season. Towers, hired at the end of the 2010 season, enjoyed immediate success with the Diamondbacks the following year, putting together a team that won 94 games and the National League West division title.

But his teams finished .500 each of the past two seasons, then entered this year with a franchise-record payroll only to lose 22 of the first 30 games and fall quickly into last place. The Diamondbacks were decimated by injuries; they lost No. 1 starter Patrick Corbin to Tommy John surgery before the season began and later lost several other key players, including first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielders Mark Trumbo and A.J. Pollock. Towers' tenure has been marked by a slew of trades and player personnel moves that left many in the game scratching their heads. His most significant trade, the deal that sent outfielder Justin Upton to the Atlanta Braves, was widely questioned when it was made in January 2013 and looks lopsided nearly two seasons later.

The Diamondbacks traded away a slew of starting pitchers over the past two seasons, including right-handers Ian Kennedy, Trevor Bauer and Jarrod Parker and left-hander Tyler Skaggs. Meanwhile, many of the players they received in return have not lived up to expectations. Since La Russa's hiring, industry speculation has been rampant about Towers' fate – and about who might replace him. Among the names that have been connected to the position are Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty, St. Louis Cardinals farm director Gary LaRocque and Diamondbacks scouting director Ray Montgomery. A FOX Sports report from last month, however, indicated Jocketty will remain with the Reds next season.
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Betting Notes - Saturday

National League
•Phillies-Nationals - 4:05 PM
--Burnett is 1-6, 7.32 in his last seven starts.
--Roark is 0-2, 4.38 in his last two starts.

--Philly won eight of its last eleven games.
--Washington is 4-6 in its last ten games, but won 11 of last 13 home games.

--Six of last eight Washington games went over.

•Pirates-Cubs - 4:05 PM
--Pirates lost last six Liriano starts, but he is 0-0, 1.38 in last two.
--Doubront is 2-1, 3.18 in his last four starts.

--Pittsburgh lost its last four games, scoring ten runs.
--Cubs won five of their last seven games.
--Yesterday's suspended game will be finished before scheduled game.

--Five of last seven games at Wrigley Field stayed under.

•Mets-Reds - 4:10 PM
--Gee is 2-2, 4.02 in his last five starts.
--Cueto is 1-2, 4.66 in his last three starts.

--Mets won four of their last five games.
--Cincinnati lost six of its last seven games.

--Over is 5-0-1 in New York's last six games.

•Cardinals-Brewers - 7:10 PM
--Lynn is 3-0, 2.63 in his last eight starts.
--Lohse is 1-4, 7.04 in his last six starts.

--Cardinals won six of their last seven games.
--Milwaukee lost nine of its last ten games.

--14 of last 19 Lynn starts stayed under the total.

•Braves-Marlins - 7:10 PM
--Wood is 4-0, 1.31 in his last five starts.
--Eovaldi is 0-4, 6.86 in his last four starts.

--Atlanta is 5-7 in its last twelve games.
--Marlins lost six of their last nine games.

--Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wood starts.

•Padres-Rockies - 8:10 PM
--Wieland is making first '14 start; he was 0-4, 4.55 in five starts in '12, and was 2-3, 3.03 in nine minor league starts this year.
--De La Rosa is 0-2, 4.91 in his last two starts.

--Padres are 2-4 in their last six games, scoring eight runs.
--Colorado won five of its last six home games.

--Under is 7-2-1 in last ten de le Rosa starts.

•Diamondbacks-Dodgers - 9:10 PM
--Anderson is 1-2, 7.11 in his last four starts.
--Ryu is 2-1, 2.02 in his last four starts.

--Arizona lost 13 of its last 19 games.
--Dodgers are 8-10 in their last 18 home games.

--Seven of last nine Arizona games stayed under total.
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American League
•Orioles-Rays - 1:05 PM
--Gausman is 0-3, 6.06 in his last three starts.
--Smyly is 3-0, 1.24 in his last five starts.

--Baltimore won nine of its last twelve games.
--Rays lost eight of their last twelve games.

--Six of last nine Baltimore games went over total.

•Royals-Yankees - 4:05 PM
--Duffy is 4-1, 3.56 in his last seven starts.
--McCarthy is 1-3, 4.23 in his last four starts.

--Royals won last four games, allowing five runs.
--New York won six of its last eight home games.

--Last six McCarthy starts stayed under total.

•Astros-Athletics - 4:05 PM
--Feldman is 2-1, 1.98 in his last three starts.
--Kazmir lost his last two starts, allowing 13 runs in 4.1 IP.

--Astros won their last five games, allowing nine runs.
--Oakland lost seven of its last eight games.

--Six of last eight Oakland games stayed under.

•White Sox-Indians - 7:05 PM
--Quintana is 1-3, 5.93 in his last five starts.
--Kluber is 0-3, 6.19 in his last three starts.

--White Sox lost six of their last seven road games.
--Cleveland lost three of its last five games.

--Over is 4-1-1 in Chicago's last six games.

•Blue Jays-Red Sox - 7:10 PM
--Happ is 1-2, 6.04 in his last four starts.
--Buchholz is 1-0, 1.56 in his last couple starts.

--Toronto won won five of its last six games.
--Red Sox lost eight of last nine home games, are 6-13 in last 19 overall.

--Five of last six Boston home games went over total.

•Angels-Twins - 7:10 PM
--Rasmus pitched three scoreless innings in his first MLB start.
--Hughes is 5-1, 2.30 in his last six starts.

--Angels won eight of their last ten games.
--Minnesota lost ten of its last thirteen games.

--Over is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Minnesota games.

•Mariners-Rangers - 8:05 PM
--Young is 0-1, 16.63 in his last two starts.
--Martinez is 1-2, 4.84 in his last four starts.

--Seattle won five of its last six games.
--Rangers lost their last seven games, scoring 16 runs.

--Six of last eight Seattle road games went over total.

Interleague
•Giants-Tigers - 1:05 PM
--Bumgarner is 3-0, 1.55 in his last four starts.
--Price is 2-2, 4.08 in six starts for Detroit.

--Giants won eight of their last ten games.
--Detroit is 3-4 in its last seven home games.

--Over is 5-1-1 in last seven San Francisco games.

•Incredible Stat of the Day
San Francisco Giants Madison Bumgarner is 31-12 in his team starts against the money line (72.0%) after walking less than one hitters each of his last two outings since 1997. The left-hander has also logged an impressive 10-1 record during the 2014 campaign in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times per game.

Bumgarner won his second National League Pitcher of the Month award of 2014 after going 4-1 with a league-best 1.57 ERA in six August starts. The North Carolina native also had an NL-best 56 strikeouts to just three walks over 46 innings. Bumgarner yielded a run in six innings of Sunday's 15-5 victory over Milwaukee to match his career high for wins.

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Doc’s Sports

#373/#373 Take BYU Cougars over Texas Longhorns (Saturday 7:30 pm Fox Sports 1)

The Cougars pounded Texas last season in Provo and the Horns have numerous injuries heading into this week. QB David Ash and parts of the offensive line are injured and that does not bode well for the Longhorns. BYU has an outstanding offense led by Taysom Hill and he light up Texas last year with much of that same personal remaining on both BYU’s offense and the Horns defense. Getting points is just icing on the cake as Coach Strong knows it will take a few years to change the culture at Texas and get the type of talent that can compete at the highest of levels.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JOE GAVAZZI
NCAA-F | Sep 06, 2014
Northern Illinois vs. Northwestern
Northwestern-7-106

Lowly Presby was the first victim of Northern Illinois this season. The 55-3 win, as 39 point chalk, saw the Huskies amass a 424-69 overland edge in racking up 635 yards. A +3 net TO margin sealed the deal. This is a somewhat greater challenge for a MAC team, who is playing for the first time in many years without proven signal callers in QB Harnish and QB Lynch. The tandem of QBs Hare and McIntosh will have a far greater challenge against a Big 10 defense. In this game, they will also miss the veteran experience of RB Stingily. Technicals point to the visitor, who has won 15 consecutive regular season road games and is on a spread streak of 10-2 ATS away. Meanwhile, the Wildcats are on a 3-5 SU, 1-8 ATS slide on their home field. A 5-7 SU, 3-9 ATS record of 2013 has 17 Wildcat RS hungry for redemption. Week 1 results did little to cool that fervor. The 31-24 home field loss to Cal (our UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK on these pages) saw NW battle valiantly but just fall short in their comeback effort after trailing the Bears 31-7 in the 3rd quarter. Playing with need and the momentum of that late game comeback, look for the Wildcats to secure a double digit victory against a foe whom they will not take lightly.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tony George | CFB Side
Free pick
321 Missouri -3.5 (-110) 5dimes vs 322 Toledo

OVER REACTION form Public to a poor outing last week by Mizzou. Less than a year removed from the SEC East Title and SEC Championship game where the Tigers took Auburn to the wire, and then won a bowl game, apparently bettors have soured on Mizzou. Yeah Yeah, I know Toledo is suppose to contend for the MAC and their QB Ely is a transfer from Alabama. Lets put it this way, if Mizzou was in the MAC Conference they would win the title without breaking a sweat. They are still a good team with a stud and rising star QB and a great RB that no one knows of, and very well coached. Also to note, Gary Pinkel knows all about the Rockets home advantage in the Glass Bowl, he coached there before Mizzou!

Mizzou lost some to graduation but this is an SEC team versus a MAC school, and laying less than a TD in that scenario is a GIFT unless your are Vandy. Trap line here? I think not. Opened at 6 and dropped like a rock all week. Sharp money early - Touts giving it out since Monday...whatever...better team with a manageable number is all I see. Mizzou QB Matty Mauk from Ohio and will play well, and Head Coach Gary Pinkel used to coach at Toledo as well and will have his team ready for a win as he returns back to his old school. Mizzou too big up front and QB Mauk the real deal.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sean Higgs

Your Bonus Play here on Saturday from Sean Higgs will be on the OREGON DUCKS.
Yeah, I will lay the number here. I had Sparty winning the Big 10 last year, and I picked them again this year even before Miller went down for Ohio State. Spartans have a great team. A top 5 team. The defense is excellent. They are 12-5-1 ATS last 5 years as dogs with 10 outright wins. That being said, I am a bit unimpressed. Looking over the last few years I see plenty of losses on the road to Notre Dame. ND isn't a Big 10 team. They aren't a rugged team like Wiscy or Michigan. Teams that start winning in the trenches. They have some speed guys. Now Michigan State goes to a place where speed is second only to breathing, maybe. Ducks love to hurry things up. I am not sure that Sparty will be able to hang here. I like QB Cook, but this is a tough assignment.

The line has creeped up even with the public loving the points here. Oregon covers this one for us.

Be sure to get my Top Rated 10* in CFB Saturday, plus not 1, but 2 Top NFL Money-Bombs. BURY THE MAN - Sean

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

RAY MONOHAN

Colorado State +10.5

In case you didn’t know Colorado State is a sleeper in the MWC this season. The opened by beating rival Colorado on the road and now they have their annual tilt against Boise State, who did not look good in losing to Ole Miss.
The line on this is based on reputation but the Broncos are not going to be the Boise we all know and love this season while Saban disciple Jim McElwain has things going in Fort Collins. The beat the Buffs by dominating on the ground and that formula can work again to keep this one close and maybe even win it outright.
Rams ATS

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRAD DIAMOND

Play on: Navy (323) over Temple @ 1:00 Eastern (Site: Philadelphia, PA)

The game opened Navy -4, at this writing -3 is the price. Navy went to Baltimore last week challenging nationally ranked Ohio State losing 34-17. The Middies lead (14-13) was diminished because of their non-existent passing game and ? pass defense. OSU wore down Navy in the second-half with the developing skills of QB Barrett who threw for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Middies are coming off a 9-4 season with 15 returning starters and 51 letters. Last year they finished with 5 straight wins against so-so competition after losing a heart breaker to Notre Dame 38-34 in South Bend. After a 2-10 season, Temple shows with 13 returning starters, including QB Walker who illustrated his skills after the Fordham game in 2013. Last week he shelled Vandy with a 22-34, 207 yard passing performance, including 2 touchdowns. We note, the game was delayed 2+ hours and it seemed to leave Vanderbilt, somewhat flat. The 37-7 final ballooned because of the 7 turnovers by the Commies. Temple has a solid coach in Matt Rhule who would love to win here in Philadelphia on Saturday. We note, in 2009 the Owls went into Annapolis winning SU 27-24 as a 7-point underdog. Last week the Middies faced a much more difficult opponent (Ohio State) vs. the Owls battle against Vanderbilt, who suffered the loss of key starters, no less the exit of a great coach Jimmy Franklin (Penn State). Remember vs. Temple, Vandy accrued only 54 yards on the ground; Navy specializes in running the football down your throat. Clearly, the Middies had a more physically challenging game last week, and they will illustrate its advantages in the fourth quarter here. Early weather projections for Saturday estimate 90+ degrees with rain throughout the day. If the early forecast holds true, the Middies will pick up an added edge with their style of play. Navy is 4-1 ATS in their second lined game of the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ROSS BENJAMIN

Play On: BYU +1.0

BYU began its season last Friday with a 35-10 win at Connecticut. Quarterback Taysom Hill was once again the catalyst for the Cougars as he had a hand in all 5 of the Cougars touchdowns. Hill threw for 302-years and 3 touchdowns, in addition to running for 97-yards and 2-scores.

Texas was an easy 38-7 home winner over North Texas in head coach Charlie Strong's debut. The Longhorns have a huge game on deck against highly rated UCLA. That game will be played at the Dallas Cowboys home Stadium in Arlington. It certainly raises a red flag in regards to this game being overlooked by the Longhorns. After all, they will be facing a much tougher opponent than they saw in their season opener. All they'll have to do is reflect back on last season's humiliating 40-21 road loss at the hands of BYU. The Longhorns will like be without starting quarterback David Ash who sustained a concussion in the season opener. In Ashe's absence, sophomore Tyrone Swoopes is expected to get the start.

Any away underdog of 8.5 or less that comes off a non-conference away favorite of 10.0 or more ATS win in which they covered by 16.0 or less, they're playing in games 2 through 7 of the season, and are facing an opponent that's playing with revenge, has gone 8-0 SU&ATS since 1980. The away underdog won all 8 of those games outright by an average of 11.8 points per contest. Play on the BYU Cougars as a free selection.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRYAN LEONARD
NCAA-F | Sep 06, 2014
East Carolina vs. South Carolina
South Carolina-16-110

Pirates only return nine starters from a year ago and were untested in the opener against NC Central. After a 15 1/2 points per game improvement in 2013 from the prior year, we can see some regression in the works for Ruffin McNeill’s crew. The last time McNeill brought back less than eight offensive starters the Pirates dropped by 12 1/2 offensive points per game. With the Gamecocks off an embarrassing national television performance we wouldn’t expect East Carolina to light up the scoreboard.
South Carolina has permitted just 20.7 points per game over the past seven seasons. After allowing 52 points to Texas A&M in the opener you know the Ole Ball Coach will be stressing defense all week at practice. That 52 points was the most South Carolina has permitted to any opponent since 2010. With a huge game on deck vs Georgia, Spurrier needs to get out all the kinks this week vs East Carolina. The Gamecocks are 7-2-1 ATS the past two seasons vs non-conference opposition. Look for a big bounce back from the host with two extra days to prepare.
PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA