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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFB TRENDS

Saturday, September 12

11:30 AM
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. FLORIDA STATE
South Florida is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of South Florida's last 13 games on the road
Florida State is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida State's last 10 games at home

12:00 PM
WESTERN ILLINOIS vs. ILLINOIS
Western Illinois is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Western Illinois is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Illinois is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

12:00 PM
OREGON STATE vs. MICHIGAN
Oregon State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Oregon State is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan's last 6 games at home
Michigan is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home

12:00 PM
BOWLING GREEN vs. MARYLAND
Bowling Green is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
Bowling Green is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Maryland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games at home
Maryland is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games at home

12:00 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. PURDUE
Indiana State is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games
Indiana State is 2-18 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Purdue is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Purdue is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games at home

12:00 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. UTSA
Kansas State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Kansas State is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games
UTSA is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of UTSA's last 17 games

12:00 PM
MIAMI (OHIO) vs. WISCONSIN
Miami (Ohio) is 3-22 SU in its last 25 games
Miami (Ohio) is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Wisconsin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Wisconsin is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. LOUISVILLE
Houston is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Louisville
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Louisville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Louisville's last 6 games
Louisville is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

12:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE STATE vs. AUBURN
Jacksonville State is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
Jacksonville State is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Auburn is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. PENN STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Penn State's last 6 games at home
Penn State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

12:00 PM
ARMY vs. CONNECTICUT
Army is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Army is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Connecticut is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Army
Connecticut is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games

12:30 PM
APPALACHIAN STATE vs. CLEMSON
Appalachian State is 4-15 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Appalachian State is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Clemson is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Clemson is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

12:30 PM
WAKE FOREST vs. SYRACUSE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Wake Forest's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Wake Forest's last 25 games
Syracuse is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Syracuse is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
HOWARD vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Howard is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Howard is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston College is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Boston College is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

2:00 PM
MASSACHUSETTS vs. COLORADO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Massachusetts's last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Massachusetts's last 7 games on the road
Colorado is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Colorado is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games at home

2:00 PM
SACRAMENTO STATE vs. WASHINGTON
Sacramento State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Sacramento State is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games
Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

3:00 PM
LIBERTY vs. WEST VIRGINIA
Liberty is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Liberty is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of West Virginia's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of West Virginia's last 5 games at home

3:00 PM
MONMOUTH, N.J. vs. CENTRAL MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Central Michigan's last 21 games
Central Michigan is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

3:00 PM
TEXAS EL PASO vs. TEXAS TECH
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas El Paso's last 5 games on the road
Texas El Paso is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas Tech is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Texas Tech is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games at home

3:30 PM
FRESNO STATE vs. MISSISSIPPI
Fresno State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Fresno State's last 6 games on the road
Mississippi is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Mississippi is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

3:30 PM
FURMAN vs. VIRGINIA TECH
Furman is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Furman is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games at home
Virginia Tech is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home

3:30 PM
GEORGIA vs. VANDERBILT
Georgia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Georgia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Vanderbilt is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Georgia
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vanderbilt's last 6 games when playing at home against Georgia

3:30 PM
MURRAY STATE vs. NORTHERN ILLINOIS
Murray State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Murray State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Northern Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Northern Illinois is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home

3:30 PM
HAWAII vs. OHIO STATE
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Hawaii's last 6 games on the road
Hawaii is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

3:30 PM
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN vs. TCU
Stephen F. Austin is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Stephen F. Austin is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
TCU is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:30 PM
AUSTIN PEAY vs. SOUTHERN MISS
Austin Peay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Austin Peay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Miss is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Southern Miss is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

3:30 PM
NOTRE DAME vs. VIRGINIA
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Notre Dame's last 9 games
Notre Dame is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Virginia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Virginia is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

3:30 PM
MINNESOTA vs. COLORADO STATE
Minnesota is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Colorado State is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Colorado State is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

3:30 PM
TULANE vs. GEORGIA TECH
Tulane is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Tulane is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 6 games at home
Georgia Tech is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

3:30 PM
WASHINGTON STATE vs. RUTGERS
Washington State is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington State is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Rutgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Rutgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

TBA
PRESBYTERIAN vs. CHARLOTTE
Presbyterian is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Presbyterian is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
No trends available

4:00 PM
EASTERN MICHIGAN vs. WYOMING
Eastern Michigan is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Eastern Michigan is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Wyoming is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Wyoming is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
TOLEDO vs. ARKANSAS
Toledo is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Toledo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arkansas's last 6 games
Arkansas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:00 PM
MIDDLE TENNESSEE vs. ALABAMA
Middle Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Middle Tennessee is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Alabama is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
Alabama is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

4:00 PM
EASTERN ILLINOIS vs. NORTHWESTERN
Eastern Illinois is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games
Eastern Illinois is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Northwestern's last 20 games
Northwestern is 7-16 ATS in its last 23 games

4:45 PM
IOWA vs. IOWA STATE
Iowa is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games when playing Iowa State
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Iowa's last 10 games when playing Iowa State
Iowa State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Iowa State is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games at home

5:00 PM
SAN DIEGO STATE vs. CALIFORNIA
San Diego State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego State is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
California is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
California is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

6:00 PM
EASTERN KENTUCKY vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
Eastern Kentucky is 1-21 SU in its last 22 games
Eastern Kentucky is 1-19 SU in its last 20 games on the road
North Carolina State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Carolina State's last 5 games

6:00 PM
WESTERN MICHIGAN vs. GA SOUTHERN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Michigan's last 5 games
Western Michigan is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Ga Southern is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Ga Southern is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

6:00 PM
NORTH CAROLINA A&T vs. NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina A&T is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
North Carolina is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games at home
North Carolina is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

6:00 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. TENNESSEE
Oklahoma is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Oklahoma's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tennessee's last 5 games at home
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

6:00 PM
DELAWARE ST vs. KENT STATE
Delaware St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Delaware St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kent State is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kent State is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

6:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. AKRON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Akron is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Akron is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games at home

6:00 PM
N.C. CENTRAL vs. DUKE
N.C. Central is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
N.C. Central is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Duke is 18-6 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Duke's last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
NORTH TEXAS vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone OVER in 8 of North Texas's last 11 games
North Texas is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Southern Methodist is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Southern Methodist is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
BALL STATE vs. TEXAS A&M
Ball State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Ball State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Texas A&M is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Texas A&M's last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
EAST CAROLINA vs. FLORIDA
East Carolina is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games
East Carolina is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games
Florida is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida's last 8 games at home

7:00 PM
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN vs. TROY
Charleston Southern is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Charleston Southern is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Troy's last 25 games
Troy is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
NORFOLK ST vs. OLD DOMINION
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Norfolk St is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Old Dominion is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Old Dominion is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
NICHOLLS STATE vs. LOUISIANA-MONROE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nicholls State's last 6 games
Nicholls State is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Louisiana-Monroe is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games

7:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. NEVADA
Arizona is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Nevada's last 10 games at home
Nevada is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. KANSAS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Kansas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
MISSOURI vs. ARKANSAS STATE
Missouri is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Missouri's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Arkansas State's last 8 games
Arkansas State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
MARSHALL vs. OHIO
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Marshall's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Marshall's last 23 games
Ohio is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing Marshall
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Ohio's last 9 games when playing Marshall

7:00 PM
PRAIRIE VIEW vs. TEXAS STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas State's last 6 games

7:00 PM
NORTHWESTERN STATE vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE
Northwestern State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Northwestern State is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Louisiana-Lafayette is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Louisiana-Lafayette is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games

7:30 PM
KENTUCKY vs. SOUTH CAROLINA
Kentucky is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kentucky is 6-19 ATS in its last 25 games on the road
South Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kentucky
The total has gone OVER in 5 of South Carolina's last 5 games when playing at home against Kentucky

7:30 PM
CENTRAL ARKANSAS vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
Central Arkansas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Central Arkansas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Oklahoma State's last 10 games
Oklahoma State is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games

7:30 PM
LAMAR vs. BAYLOR
Lamar is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Lamar is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baylor's last 6 games at home
Baylor is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games at home

8:00 PM
RICE vs. TEXAS
Rice is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Texas
Rice is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Texas's last 7 games
Texas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

8:00 PM
GEORGIA STATE vs. NEW MEXICO STATE
Georgia State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Georgia State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
New Mexico State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
New Mexico State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
OREGON vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Oregon is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games
Oregon is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Michigan State's last 16 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan State's last 8 games at home

8:00 PM
TULSA vs. NEW MEXICO
Tulsa is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tulsa is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games
New Mexico is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
New Mexico is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games

8:00 PM
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL vs. INDIANA
Florida International is 6-19 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida International's last 6 games
Indiana is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Indiana is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

8:00 PM
IDAHO vs. SOUTHERN CAL
Idaho is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Idaho is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Southern Cal's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Southern Cal's last 24 games at home

8:00 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. NEBRASKA
South Alabama is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games
South Alabama is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Nebraska is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Nebraska is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games

8:00 PM
TEMPLE vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Temple's last 6 games
Temple is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Temple
Cincinnati is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

9:15 PM
LSU vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE
LSU is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LSU's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against LSU
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Mississippi State's last 11 games when playing LSU

10:15 PM
SAN JOSE STATE vs. AIR FORCE
San Jose State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
San Jose State is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
Air Force is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Air Force is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

10:15 PM
BOISE STATE vs. BYU
Boise State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing BYU
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Boise State's last 10 games
BYU is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
BYU is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 19 games

10:30 PM
UCLA vs. UNLV
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of UCLA's last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of UCLA's last 13 games on the road
UNLV is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
UNLV is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

10:30 PM
CENTRAL FLORIDA vs. STANFORD
Central Florida is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Central Florida's last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Stanford's last 5 games
Stanford is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home

11:00 PM
CAL POLY vs. ARIZONA STATE
Cal Poly is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games
Cal Poly is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona State's last 6 games at home
Arizona State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

7:30 PM
CLEMSON vs. LOUISVILLE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Clemson's last 5 games on the road
Clemson is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games on the road
Louisville18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games
Louisville18-3-1 SU in its last 22 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Line Watch: Keep an eye on the total in Temple-Cincinnati

The total opened at 51 in some spots and 52.5 in other locations, while finally settling around 51.5 at most sportsbooks.

Spread to bet now: Minnesota -6 (at Colorado State)

Minnesota opened as -4.5 point favorites, and the early money quickly came in on the Gophers, pushing this line up to the current price of -6. I expect more Minnesota money throughout the week, so getting less than -7 now would be a prudent move.

My power ratings make Minnesota an 8-point favorite in this game. The Gophers played to a respectable 23-17 loss to TCU in their season opener, and they get some extra rest for this game after playing last Thursday. Colorado State is a vastly different team than last season, and their 65-13 win over Savannah State means nothing as CSU was a -51 point favorite in that game. Reality sets in here, so take Minnesota now before the line goes any higher.

Spread to wait on: BYU +2.5 (vs. Boise State)

The dynamic of this game changed dramatically when BYU quarterback Taysom Hill was lost for the season after injuring his foot last week at Nebraska. BYU would have been a 2-point favorite in this game with Hill under center, but the oddsmakers adjusted and opened Boise State -1.5 on the road.

Initial money has come in on the Broncos, and some sports books have moved the line up to Boise State -3. And once the public gets involved, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 3.5 pop up. Backup quarterback Tanner Mangum played well in relief, and he was a highly-rated recruit for BYU, so he should fill in just fine. Wait for +3 or more and back BYU in this game.

Total to watch: Temple/Cincinnati 51.5

Temple and Cincinnati are complete opposites. The Owls have a terrible offense and a very good defense. The Bearcats have a potent offense and a suspect defense. This total had to be a difficult one for the oddsmakers to set. It opened at 51 in some spots and 52.5 in other locations, while finally settling around 51.5 at most sportsbooks.

Cincinnati is currently a 6.5-point favorite over Temple. The Bearcats opened at -7.5 and the line dropped a full point. With a move to the underdog, money will likely come in on the Under as well. If Temple hangs close, this game will have to be low scoring.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Gavazzi

Hawaii +40

The Alpo eaters devoured nearly the whole bowl, succumbing late in the 4th quarter. Though I don’t believe Hawaii will make a game of it, there is plenty of room to come inside this number that became inflated following the Ohio St. Monday night result. But before we can talk about that story, let’s revisit Hawaii’s Friday night results. The truth is the Rainbow Warriors may have gotten a bit fortunate in their 28-20 home victory over a phony favorite, the Colorado Buffalo. You see, the Buffs outrushed Hawaii 215-101, one of only 4 of 15 DOUBLE RUSHERS who did not bring home the ATS bacon in Week 1. On the bright side of the ledger, USC transfer, QB Wittek, led a passing attack that went 19 for 38 for over 2 bucks. Nonetheless, the 303 total yards put up by Hawaii is about 150 less than the Buffs usually allow. That is hardly an endorsement for a team who now must travel some 4,500 miles east for a 9:30 a.m. body time start against the defending champs. As a result, this play is not so much ON Hawaii, whose 3 new coordinators are trying desperately to save the job of HC Chow, who in his 4th season is just 9-29 SU. Rather, this is a contrary stance against the defending champs. After bolting to a 14-0 1st quarter lead, Ohio St. began to read their press clippings. The committed a pair of 2nd quarter TOs which allowed the Hokies to go to the locker room with a 17-14 lead. So much for only home loss revenge! At the half, ESPN cameras flashed to VA Tech QB, Brewer, who after getting sandwiched by a pair of Ohio St. defenders late in the first half was asked by his teammates “are you OK?” It was the certain KOD (kiss of death) when Brewer arrogantly replied, “it will take a lot more than that to knock me out of this game!” And, that is exactly what happened, when early in the 3rd quarter, Brewer was slammed to the ground by the Ohio St. pass rush, separating his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the process. From there on, it was all Buckeyes who scored 28 unanswered before the Hokies fired a meaningless backdoor shot. But, the combination of Ohio St. triplets, Jones, Miller and Elliott (they barely used projected starter, JT Bartlett), were all the viewers needed to see to make their mind up about this contest. One look at the stats which saw Ohio St. a member of the 200 CLUB and DOUBLE RUSHERS, confirmed their belief. Ergo, this 40-point impost, a full TD higher than it would have been last week (despite Hawaii covering by 16 points). This one’s tough to bet (remember how much trouble you had pulling the trigger on Washington last week?), but it’s the right SIDE considering the value in the line and that HC Meyer is just 10-10 ATS as Columbus chalk of late. Join the Lone Ranger and me for this Week 2 contrary play.


Georgia Tech -28.5

Look for this dominating favorite to either DOUBLE RUSH their opponent (a 75% chance of pointspread success) or run and pass for 200+ yards (200 CLUB, A 74% pointspread winner). Here is this week’s winner. The Tulane Green Wave travels to Georgia Tech for a game 2 for each team. These teams posted divergent results in the first week of play. Before this line slips away from us (it has already been moved a TD from last week), we must lay the lumber in what is most assuredly the CRUSHER OF THE WEEK. With 9 starters returning to the offensive side of the ball (16 RS in all), a rebound season was expected from a Tulane team that dropped from 7-6 SU, 8-4 ATS in 2013 to 3-9 SU, 3-8 ATS last year. In opening week, they hosted Duke, a team who had smacked them (47-13) last season. But, revenge was never in the offing! The Blue Devils recorded a 200 Club night and double rushed the Greenies 206-25 in rolling up a 530-271 yardage advantage in a 37-7 victory. Now, this Tulane team, who averaged just 16 PPG last year must travel east in what will surely be your CRUSHER OF THE WEEK. Last year, Georgia Tech won this matchup (38-21), covering the 9 point road impost at Tulane. In so doing, they outrushed the Green Wave 344-81, easily DOUBLERUSHING them for the cover. Expect more of the same today, despite the fact that Tech may not show their entire hand with a game vs. Notre Dame next week. Nonetheless, a veteran Tech offense STEAMROLLED to a 69-6 cover as (-41) in their opening week win vs. Alcorn. In so doing, they DOUBLERUSHED Alcorn 476-166. The game was over early, when the Jackets put up 34 points in the 1st quarter. QB Thomas and the rest of the offense, including RB Marshall, took off the last half of the afternoon. There is precedence for our selection, noting that Tech HC Johnson is on a bit of a pointspread roll. The Jackets have covered 11 of 15 most recently and are an identical 11-4 ATS laying double digits of late. You have got a scoop, if Tech does not DOUBLERUSH this opponent and easily cover the 4TD impost!


Central Florida +19

UCF travels the 3,000 miles coast to coast for this 10:30 ET body time start (not even these guys play football at 10:30 at night) against the Stanford Cardinal. Each of these teams comes off a loss as a double digit favorite last week in their opening game, putting up miserable offensive performances. Yet, the linemaker’s adjustment clearly makes this an overlay on Stanford, who would have been less than a 2 TD favorite, if this game were played at any time in the previous 12 months. Stanford looked disoriented in their 9:00 a.m. ET body start as 12 point road chalk at Northwestern last week. An improved Northwestern team led wire-to-wire in a dominating (16-6) victory, an easy ATS winner, one of 14 of the 20 games in which I had written analysis last week. The Wildcats outrushed a rebuilding Cardinal defense 225-85. Highly thought of Stanford QB Hogan looked disoriented in leading a Stanford passing attack to just 155 yards. The conservative play calling of HC Shaw, with Stanford trailing by double digits in the 4th, was mystifying. Following a 3-0 SU ATS finish to last season, much more was expected from a veteran QB and a perennially tough defense that has not allowed more than 20 PPG in each of the previous 3 seasons. I am well aware that the Cardinal is 7-1 ATS/loss, but there is no precedent for a Game 2 bounce back by last year’s Bowlers following a Game 1 defeat. The 15-14 loss by UCF to in-state rival, Florida Int’l, as 17 point favorite was not as mystifying to this bureau. FIU is a team on the rise under HC Turner. In outgaining UCF 391-295, the Panthers outrushed the Knights 131-46. Much like Stanford, this UCF team, under 12th year HC O’Leary, is built from the ground up on defense. Over the last 4 years, they have allowed a cumulative 20 PPG, including just 19 PPG LY, only 298 total yards and only 104/3.2 overland. In a defensive battle with offenses that have not gotten on track, 19 points is a mountain, considering the success of UCF in this role under O’Leary. Long-term, that record is 20-10 ATS as road dog with the Knights standing 6-1 ATS as underdog the last 2 seasons. Big Dog take in a game that figures to be decided by single digits!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cfl Trends

Saturday, September 12

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SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 9) at WINNIPEG (3 - 7) - 9/12/2015, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SASKATCHEWAN is 25-43 ATS (-22.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1996.
WINNIPEG is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in September games over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games revenging a loss versus opponent over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) off a loss against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 15 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SASKATCHEWAN is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
SASKATCHEWAN is 5-2 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CALGARY (8 - 2) at EDMONTON (6 - 4) - 9/12/2015, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
EDMONTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
CALGARY is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CALGARY is 7-1 against the spread versus EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
CALGARY is 8-0 straight up against EDMONTON over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CFL TRENDS

Saturday, September 12

6:30 PM
SASKATCHEWAN vs. WINNIPEG
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Saskatchewan's last 5 games when playing Winnipeg
Saskatchewan is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Winnipeg's last 8 games
Winnipeg is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan

9:30 PM
CALGARY vs. EDMONTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Calgary's last 6 games when playing on the road against Edmonton
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Calgary's last 10 games
Edmonton is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Calgary
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Edmonton's last 9 games at home

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Federated Auto Parts 400
By Micah Roberts

For the second time this season NASCAR will visit Richmond International Raceway, but Saturday night’s Federated Auto Parts 400 will have quite a bit more importance than the Apr. 26 race because it signifies the end of the regular season before NASCAR’s version of the playoffs start next week at Chicagoland.

This is the last chance for drivers outside the Top-16 in points to try and get the automatic Chase birth by winning a race which is going to to put immense pressure on several drivers to take all levels of their game up a notch. They will be forced to make daring moves they might not try in other races, and since there is no tomorrow, they’ll lay it all on the line.

Of the drivers that need to win to make the Chase, I think you can only make a case for three drivers -- Kasey Kahne, Kyle Larson and Tony Stewart. Larson probably has the best possibilities of all, but Kahne has the experience in these spots and I like Stewart to run well just because his practice sessions last week at Darlington raised an eyebrow. This isn’t the same set-up as Darlington, but knowing Stewart’s crew found some speed has me intrigued about him this week, and he should be able to be found at odds of 75/1 or higher.

Stewart has three Richmond wins to his credit, the last coming in 2002, but more than just a solid 12th-place average finish there appears to be a spark within the team, and it’s about time. For goodness sakes, this is Tony Stewart, the owner of the team which happens to include last year's champion Kevin Harvick and the Richmond winner from April, Kurt Busch. While the No. 4 and No. 41 have been winning races and looking like possible candidates to win this year's Chase, Stewart has run more than Danica Patrick, who has been a major disappointment to Stewart-Haas Racing.

Patrick is another driver needing to win, but if she hasn’t won during her first three years in the Series there is no reason to think she can win, unless you believe that association with the No. 4 and No. 41 cars are to her benefit. The sports books will tempt you with 500/1 odds to win at Richmond, but I wouldn’t even thinking of laying $5 on her unless there was another zero attached to the price. Because she gets sponsorship dollars, we will see another year of Patrick, who -- let’s be kind -- hasn’t been as spectacular as expected in stock cars.

The first thing you should do when handicapping Saturday’s race is look at what happened at Phoenix in March, Richmond in April and New Hampshire in July. Those three tracks require similar set-ups because of size and being relatively flat. If a driver did well on one, it’ll carry over to the next one. Harvick won at Phoenix, was second at Richmond and third at New Hampshire. He led 278 laps between the three races. Kurt Busch was fourth at Phoenix, won at Richmond -- led 291 laps -- and 10th at New Hampshire. Joey Logano also has similar consistency with all of them, as does Jamie McMurray.

Kahne, who is in major desperation mode right now, finished fourth at Phoenix and sixth at Richmond, but the finished 19th at New Hampshire. Clearly a disappointing season for Kahne, but a win could completely change the mood and complexion. Kahne won at Richmond in 2005 and has averaged a 17th-place finish in 23 starts. There are worse things to throw $5 on than Kahne at 30/1 odds. At least you know you got a hungry horse with Hendrick Motorsports backing.

While Kahne and Stewart are shots in the dark because of their situation, the drivers that have always fared well at Richmond are Kyle Busch with a 7.3 average finish, Harvick with a 10.7 average and Denny Hamlin with a 11th-place average. Kyle Busch has won four times on the three-quarter mile track and Harvick has won three times. Hamlin is a two-time winner, but the native Virginian has finished 21st or worse in his past four starts there.

While I think Harvick and Kurt Busch are going to be extremely tough this week, I kind of like the roll Brad Keselowski is on. He’s had eight straight top-10 finishes coming into Saturday and he won this race last season. He finished second to Kyle Busch on the similar New Hampshire layout in July. The younger Busch is also a threat, especially now considering he can relax after finally clinching a Chase spot last week. He may have been point racing the past few weeks.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:

1) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
2) #4 Kevin Harvick (5/1)
3) #41 Kurt Busch (10/1)
4) #22 Joey Logano (8/1)
5) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Drivers to Watch - Richmond

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Federated Auto Parts 400
Saturday, September 12th – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Richmond International Speedway, Richmond, VA

With only one race remaining until the Chase for the Sprint Cup Challenger Round begins, the drivers head to Richmond for the Federated Auto Parts 400. Richmond International Speedway opened in 1946 and features a .75-mile asphalt track. The D-shaped track has banking that runs 14 degrees on the turns, eight degrees on the frontstretch and two degrees on the backstretch.

A few drivers that will be participating on Saturday have won this race multiple times, and that list includes Jimmie Johnson (2007, 2008), Denny Hamlin (2009, 2010) and Kevin Harvick (2006, 2011). For Hamlin it’s worth nothing that he may feel some discomfort on Saturday, as he suffered a torn ACL over the week and will be driving through it for the first time in this event.

The winner of this race in 2014 was Brad Keselowski and it was the second consecutive victory by a driver who races with a Ford manufactured car. Carl Edwards’ victory in 2013 took only two hours, 51 minutes and 23 seconds. It was the fastest anybody has finished this race since Dale Jarrett’s victory in 1997.

Let’s now take a look at who could be coming away with a win this weekend:

Drivers to Watch

Kevin Harvick (9/2) - Harvick is the favorite to win the Federated Auto Parts 400, and it’s for good reason. Harvick has won this event twice in the past 10 years and his past two trips to Richmond have been very successful. He earned a fifth place finish at this track back on Sep. 6, 2014 and a second place finish on Apr. 26. Harvick’s excellent driving isn’t just limited to Virginia, though. He has racked up eight top-10 finishes in his past 10 Sprint Cup races and earned two victories early in the season. He’s a very good pick to win this event on Saturday.

Jimmie Johnson (15/1) - Johnson is coming off of a disappointing race at Darlington, failing to crack the top-15 for the second time in his past two races. He is, however, receiving great odds in this race and is being a little disrespected coming into the event. Johnson has won this race twice in his career and has still finished in the top-10 of three of the past five races this season. He may not be dominating the way he used to, but he’s one of the best drivers in the Sprint Cup Series and is worth a play at the incredible value he’s getting on Saturday.

Kyle Larson (30/1) - Larson finished 10th at the Bojangles’ Southern 500 this past week and has been in excellent form lately, finishing in the top-15 in five of the past six races. He has two top-10 finishes in that span as well. Larson has never won a Sprint Cup Series race, but he’s closing in on that first victory and it’s only a matter of time before he breaks through. Being ahead of the curve and placing a unit or two on him would be a wise decision with these odds.

Ryan Newman (40/1) - Newman has been racing extremely well this season and has finished in the top-10 at two of the past three races while also piling up six top-15s in the past seven races. The “Rocket Man” is one of the most consistent drivers around and will be racing on what is likely his favorite track Saturday evening. Newman has eight straight top-15s at Richmond International and is getting way too good of odds for a guy that has owned this course in the past. He’s a name to keep an eye on and is certainly worth a unit or two this coming weekend.

David Ragan (200/1) - Ragan has not been at his best recently, getting wrecked in back-to-back races and unfortunately finishing 40th because of that. He is, however, going to be racing for his season on Saturday and crazier things have happened. He is a very solid driver and has finished in the top-15 at two races this season. If you’re looking for a darkhorse pick that is completely under the radar then Ragan is your guy.

Odds to win Federated Auto Parts 400

Kevin Harvick 9/2
Brad Keselowski 5/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Joey Logano 7/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Kurt Busch 9/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Jimmie Johnson 18/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1
Jeff Gordon 20/1
Jamie McMurray 25/1
Kyle Larson 30/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
Tony Stewart 80/1
Austin Dillon 100/1
Greg Biffle 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1
David Ragan 200/1
Aric Almirola 300/1
AJ Allmendinger 500/1
Casey Mears 500/1
Danica Patrick 500/1
Ricky Stenhouse 500/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 500/1
Trevor Bayne 500/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bubble drivers might chase points at Richmond
By THE SPORTS XCHANGE

No throwback paint schemes are scheduled for Saturday night's race at the Richmond International Raceway. But there are likely to be some age-old tactics when it comes to race strategy and pit work.

The field for this year's Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup will be decided by race's end and that means drivers on the bubble who are in position to make it on points are faced with a dilemma. A victory would secure both a spot in the Chase and momentum for winning the title.

But will that be worth the risk?

Jamie McMurray will qualify for the Chase as long as he takes the green flag in the Chip Ganassi team's Chevy. That leaves four drivers - Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Paul Menard and Clint Bowyer - who can earn the final four positions since only 11 drivers have qualified thus far by winning a race this season.

It's likely that Newman, Gordon and Menard and their respective teams will concentrate on their point totals. In other words, they'll be points racing, a time-honored tradition despite the Chase's current emphasis on winning.

Each of these drivers can control his own destiny and secure a spot in the Chase by hitting his points mark regardless if there is a new winner - Newman by finishing 31st or better, Gordon by finishing 17th or better and Menard with a 10th place finish. If there is a repeat winner, Newman and Gordon will make the Chase regardless of their finishing position.

Gordon, Newman and Bowyer all have Top 10 driver ratings at Richmond according to NASCAR's statistics bureau. Bowyer is fourth, Gordon fifth and Newman ninth in the Driver Ratings, which include a variety of statistics pegged to a points system.

The odd man out could be Bowyer. If a new winner for the 2015 season emerges at Richmond, he'll need to gain at least eleven points to surpass Menard, 18 points to pass Gordon and 32 points to exceed Newman. At the very least, Bowyer cannot allow the two drivers behind him to overtake him - Aric Almirola (who would have to gain 30 points) or Kasey Kahne (32 points). Absent a new winner, Bowyer can secure a spot in the Chase with a 28th place finish.

If Bowyer runs into misfortune and happens to tie in points with Almirola or Kahne, he would advance on the basis of a third-place finish at Sonoma, Calif., this summer.

Almirola and Kahne are among those who could post a first win of the season at Richmond, although they only have three Top 5 finishes between them this year and seven Top 10s.

Longshots include Kyle Larson, who has not posted a Top 10 at Richmond in three starts, and Greg Biffle, who continues to be mired in the Roush Fenway Racing team's slump. Like Larson, Austin Dillon continues to occasionally look like a driver ready to win his first Sprint Cup race.

Tony Stewart is the wild card. In 2011, Stewart raced his way into the Chase on points and then swept five of the ten Chase races to win the championship. This year, he'll need to start his winning skein earlier. He can't make it to the Chase on points and can only get in with a win.

Ranked seventh at Richmond by NASCAR statistics, Stewart is one of the most likely candidates to win any time the green is dropped. He has three career victories on the D-shaped, 0.75-mile oval, including his first on what he describes as his favorite track.

There's even a hint of momentum for the three-time champion in what has been a miserable year. He led 10 laps at Darlington Raceway last weekend, albeit in part as a result of pit strategy, and was on the leader board for much of the race prior to finishing 15th.

At Richmond, Stewart says finding the balance is the key to success.

"With the two ends of the track being different like they are, it seems like you're always fighting something, but that's what always makes the racing good, too," said Stewart. "You never really get anybody who gets their car perfect. Even the guy that gets the lead still isn't happy with his car. So, it's really trying to find that balance and trying to figure out how to balance both ends of the track together."

Unfortunately for Stewart and his Stewart Haas Racing team, getting the balance right on this year's lower downforce cars has been a challenge. He has only two Top 10 finishes and his Darlington result moved him up to just 24th in the points.

It's most likely that one of the 11 drivers who have already won a race this year will win at Richmond. There are three bonus points in the Chase available for a victory up for grabs by these drivers, who account for 12 of the last 13 victories at the Richmond track.

Since drivers still hunting points can gain one by leading a lap - and can have a long night should they start in the rear of the field - qualifying will be important.

The bottom line is that anything can happen on a short track like Richmond, which is why teams in the hunt for the Chase will have pit carts and their haulers loaded with extra parts in case of an incident and a need for extensive repairs to get back on the track.

The best example of what can happen is a throwback points racing anecdote from 1973. The late Benny Parsons won his lone championship that year by salvaging a wrecked car in the season finale at Rockingham, N.C. He beat Cale Yarborough to the title despite his early race accident.

"Benny crashed and I mean totaled his car," recalled Yarborough, who was driving for Junior Johnson. "I thought that with a little bit of luck and if I finished that race I would win the championship. Halfway through the race, I looked up and saw what looked like just a piece of a car on the race track. It was Benny. They had fixed his car up to where he could ride it out."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA

Boise St - 2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SCOTT SPREITZER
NCAA-F | Sep 12, 2015
East Carolina vs. Florida
Florida-20½

I'm recommending a play on the Florida Gators on Saturday. Many who want to play against Florida mention how badly the Gators' offense struggled the last couple of seasons. I get it. But the fact is, that offense is gone...at least the anemic play-calling is. Jim McElwain is the new man in charge in Gainesville and brings with him a hybrid pro style offense mixed with a little pistol look. Gone is Will Muschamp, a great defensive mind, but certainly the leader of a staff that struggled with the offensive end of things. McElwain and his staff know a thing or two about a thing or two about the offensive side of the football. Will Grier and Treon Harris are the QBs who take advantage of the new play-calling. And while Florida was winning big in their opener, ECU escaped an unranked FCS Towson program. Yes, ECU won the game, but Towson was driving inside the 20 late in the game before coming up empty. Shane Carden has graduated and the QB who took his place, Kurt Benkert was injured in August. ECU is starting what would be their 3rd string QB if those two were still around. The Pirates enter on a 3-11 ATS slide on the road off a home win, allowing 34 ppg in the 14 games. I know about Florida's struggles in recent years. But under McElwain's staff, I expect different results. I'm recommending a play on the Gators minus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Bonus Play Sat: Michigan -14

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

JIM FEIST

(365) SAN JOSE STATE VS (366) AIR FORCE.

Take: over.

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, September 12, 2015 is in the late evening College Football contest between San Jose and Air Force (ESPNU). Air Force is 37-14 at home under head coach Troy Calhoun and has won eight straight dating back to 2013. Speedy Air Force is so tough to defense with their option attack -- just as Morgan State, as the Falcons just steamrolled them, 63-7. They face an San Jose State squad off a 3-9 season playing its first road game. San Jose has a soft defense and is 0-4 against the spread on the road. The Spartans give up a lot of points, especially on the road where six of their last eight games have gone OVER. The Spartans will have a tough time stopping this Falcons offense. The Falcons have gone OVER in four of their last five home games. We'll need a lot of points out of Air Force to get this one OVER, but I don't see that as much of a problem against an overmatched Spartans defense. Your Bonus Play is on the OVER tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

PURE LOCK

FREE CFB play Saturday 9-12-15
Ohio +3 1/2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CHASE DIAMOND
NCAA-F | Sep 12, 2015
Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
Tennessee+100

Huge game for both team here as the 1-0 Sooners face the 1-0 Vols. Tennessee has lost 27 of it's last 28 against top 25 teams and that streak will be halted Saturday. Vols won 4 of it's last 5 games last season and looked to be turning it around and this year they have the talent to compete with the Sooners. Tennessee got crushed last year at Oklahoma so there will be big time revenge in mind and that stadium will be rocking. Vols won easy last week revenging home teams are an awesome 71 percent the past 34 years off an 18-point SU/ATS win in their season opener. 73% of the public are backing the road team here and this line has not budged much telling us the sharps are really behind the Vols here and so am I for a 15* winner.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

BRANDON LEE

10* FREE NCAAF PICK ON OKLAHOMA/TENNESSEE OVER 62.5

There's going to be a ton of offense in this one. Oklahoma is running a new up-tempo offense under first year offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley and should have no problem moving the ball and scoring touchdowns against the Volunteers. Tennessee was shredded in their opener by Bowling Green. The Falcons scored 30 points and had 557 yards of total offense. Oklahoma had over 500 yards in their opener and will score well into the 30's if not the 40's in this one. I expect Tennessee to be right there with them. The Volunteers scored 59 points and had over 600 yards of total offense against Bowling Green and will be able to take advantage of this Oklahoma defense at home. Sooners only allowed 25.9 ppg last year, but allowed 30+ in over half (7) of their games. This total should be in the 70's. ROLL THE OVER 62.5!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS

Michigan
Virginia
Michigan St
LSU

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

Wake Forest +4

Eric Dungey will be center stage on Saturday as Syracuse opens its ACC schedule with a home date against Wake Forest. Dungey is slated to take over as the starting QB for for the Orange following the season ending injury to Terrel Hunt.

For what it's worth, Dungey got some very positive reviews coming out of his debut last week. He showed poise and athleticism and overall did a nice job as the 'Cuse blew out Rhode Island. Orange OC Tim Lester says that Dungey is "different from any freshman QB I've ever had" and that he doesn't intend to go vanilla as far as the offensive game plan is concerned.

Nevertheless, this is still a daunting spot for a kid just out of high school. And I fully expect Syracuse to focus on running the football in order to minimize the chance of mistakes by Dungey.

If that's the case, it plays into what appears to be the strength for Wake Forest. I like the front seven for the Demon Deacons. This team's liability on the stop unit is the secondary but I really don't believe Syracuse will be throwing caution to the wind in an effort to exploit that deficiency.

Wake Forest should draw some confidence from its opening week win, even against a really weak Elon squad. The Demon Deacons surely won't need to be reminded of just how miserably they played last season against Syracuse. The Orange won that game 30-7, and it probably wasn't that close. No doubt they'd love to turn the tables and get some revenge here.

Dave Clawson left Bowling Green for one of the tougher FBS gigs in the country. Let's face it, the ceiling at Wake Forest isn't very high. But I thought the Demon Deacons made some nice strides last year and they even managed to score a late season upset against Virginia Tech.

While the Wake offense is somewhat limited, they have an improving sophomore QB in John Wolford and he'll get to try his luck against a somewhat green Syracuse defense that could be vulnerable.

My pre-season power ratings had Syracuse three points better than the Demon Deacons. But I feel as though the Hunt injury is very significant and while there seems to be lots of confidence in Dungey, I definitely feel there's a substantial downgrade at the most important position on the team, at least until Dungey proves me wrong.

The Demon Deacons are not one of those teams that one can seemingly ever play with an overflow of confidence, as they're just not very good. But I suspect they could be the better team on Saturday at the Carrier Dome and at more than a FG, I've got Wake Forest on my card.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Rutgers

These schools met in Seattle last year with Rutgers pulling out a 41-38 win. Then-Rutgers QB Gary Nova threw for 281 yards with two TDs but was outplayed by WSU’s Halliday, who threw for 532 yards and five TD passes, However, Rutgers RB James was the difference-maker, rushing for 173 yards and three TDs, including the game-winner with just under four minutes to go. Neither of last year’s QBs are around this year. Rutgers had a battle for the QB position entering the season with LSU transfer Rettig getting the start last week but it was redshirt sophomore Laviano who had the better game. He entered in the second half and went 4 of 4 for 138 yards with three TDs, as Rutgers piled up 42 points in a 63-13 win.

Laviano is expected to start here (his first) but as long as WR Leonte Carroo is available, he should be just fine. Caroo caught three passes (all for TDs and all from Laviano) in the second half last week and he now owns the school record with 22 career receiving TDs in 24 games. The Cougars are an AWFUL defensive team allowed 38.6 PPG last season (on almost 450 YPG) and will likely have all sorts of trouble vs a balanced Rutgers offense. The Scarlet Knights ran for 291 yards (6.2 YPC) last Saturday, as Hicks had 118 yards (two TDs) and James added 82.

Luke Falk replaces Halliday this season at QB and he threw for 289 yards and a pair of TDs but the Cougars were stunned by FCS foe Portland State, 24-17. In fairness, the game was played in a driving rainstorm, so Mike Leach’s offense was understandably hampered. Falk left last week's contest late in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury but is slated to start against Rutgers. Minutes before last week's kickoff, Rutgers dismissed five players - including three projected starters - for their alleged part in a home invasion and a brawl. Aside from the five players dismissed, Flood suspended five more for the first half of last week's 63-13 win, including presumed starting QB Chris Laviano for curfew violations. Flood himself still is under investigation for a possible NCAA violation involving an academic issue and could be suspended at some point during the season.

Despite the many distractions, Rutgers played an excellent game last week, albeit vs an inferior foe. So what’s WSU’s excuse? The rain? Bottom line is, the Cougars’ loss to Portland State was their first to an FCS team in 20 contests. A cross-country trip to play a Rutgers team which knows it needs to win games like this if it is to become bowl-eligible once again, is surely no bargain. Note that Rutgers has gone to a bowl in NINE of the last 10 seasons (won SIX of the nine), after making just ONE bowl appearance in its entire history prior to 2005 (that was in the 1978 Garden State Bowl).

Rutgers wins and takes a 2-0 victory into Happy Valley next Saturday for a huge revenge game against the Nittany Lions (FIVE Gary Nova INTs cost Rutgers the win last year, in a 13-10 home loss). I’m getting ahead of myself. Saturday, lay the small price with Rutgers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

River City Sharps

Colorado St +5

Minnesota was one of the teams that looked impressive in defeat as they held their own with second ranked TCU, while Colorado State rolled to an easy 65-13 win over outmanned Savannah State. Rams first year coach Mike Bobo was able to see a lot of the reserves in this game, which will help as a fast improving Big 10 team comes to Fort Collins. Not much can be read into the Rams win, but the Gophers are feeling good about themselves as they were able to hang with TCU for most of that game and generated 341 yards of offense and 18 first downs. Colorado State has proven to be a very tough customer against the number, especially over the last three seasons. The Rams are 19-9 ATS over the past three seasons and 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. non-conference teams. Hughes Stadium has proven to be a difficult place to play for the visitors and we think you will see more of the same on Saturday. The Rams return 15 starters from LY’s 10-3 squad and do have their big rivalry game on tap next week with Colorado, but we don’t think they will be looking past a visit from a quality Big 10 team. In the end, we believe the home field and the high octane offense of the Rams is going to get it done and we are calling for the outright upset. That said, we are going to recommend the Rams plus the points in this spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League
Cubs @ Phillies
Haren is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two starts; over is 5-2 in his last seven.

Eickhoff is 0-3, 6.88 in his las three starts (over 2-2 in his MLB starts).

Cubs won seven of last eight games (over 6-3 in last nine); they lost four of last seven games with Philly- under is 8-4 in last 12 series games. Phillies lost eight of last nine games; seven of their last ten went over the total.

Brewers @ Pirates
Davies is 1-0, 3.97 in his first two MLB starts (over 2-0).

Locke is 1-3, 6.97 in his last four starts; over is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Milwaukee won nine of last 11 games with Pittsburgh; six of last eight games in series went over. Brewers lost four of last six games; ten of their last 11 went over total. Pirates won four of last six; over is 9-2 in their last eleven.

Nationals @ Marlins
Roark is 1-1, 4.98 in his last four starts (over 5-1 in his last six).

Fernandez is making first start since August 7. He is 3-0, 1.95 in his last six starts; four of his last five went over the total. .

Nationals lost last four games overall, allowing 23 runs- over is 8-2-1 in their last 11. Marlins won eight of their last ten games. Washington won four of last six games with Miami (under 3-1-1 in last five).

Mets @ Braves
Syndergaard is 2-1, 6.18 in his last five starts; his last six went over.

Perez is 1-2, 10.80 in his last four starts; his last five went over.

Mets won six of last seven games; over is 7-3 in their last ten. NY lost four of last seven games with Atlanta (over 6-3 in last nine). Braves lost 15 of last 17 games; seven of their last ten went over the total.

Cardinals @ Reds
Friday's game was suspended in 8th inning, tied 2-2. It will be played out before the regularly scheduled game.

Lynn is 2-3, 5.96 in his last five starts; under is 3-0-1 in his last four on road.

DeSclafani is 1-1, 2.25 in his last three starts; six of his last seven went under.

St Louis won seven of last 11 games with Cincinnati; eight of last nine series games stayed under total. Cardinals lost six of last eight games pverall; over is 8-2-1 in their last 11. Reds won three of last five games (over 6-1).

Dodgers @ Diamondbacks
Bolsinger is 2-0, 3.18 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.

de la Rosa is 1-2, 6.19 in his last three starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.

Dodgers won eight of last ten games with Arizona; four of last five series games went over total. LA won five of last seven games overall. Arizona lost four of last six games; seven of their last 11 stayed under the total.

Padres @ Giants
Kennedy is 0-2, 4.82 in his last three starts; over is 3-0-1 in his last four.

Bumgarner is 6-1, 2.13 in his last seven starts; three of his last four went over.

Padres lost four of last five games with San Francisco (over 4-1); San Diego lost lost six of last eight games overall (under 4-3 last seven). Giants are 4-9 in last thirteen games; seven of their last ten stayed under.

American League
Royals @ Orioles
Cueto is 0-4, 9.90 in his last four starts (over 5-0 in last five). Ventura is 4-1, 1.93 in his last six starts.

Tillman is 0-4, 8.85 in his last four starts (over 2-0-1 in last three).

Royals won nine of last 11 games with Baltimore; over is 6-3-1 in last ten in series. KC lost six of last seven games overall (under 3-2-1 in last six). Orioles are 5-3 in last eight games; seven of their last ten games went over.

Blue Jays @ Bronx
Estrada is 1-1, 2.50 in his last three starts (under 6-2 in last eight). Stroman is making first '15 start after being hurt; he was 11-6, 3.65 in 20 MLB starts LY.

Nova is 1-3, 6.86 in his last four starts (under 7-3 in last ten). Pineda is 1-3, 6.11 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four).

Toronto is 8-3 in last 11 games with Bronx; seven of last eight series games went under total. Blue Jays are 6-3 in last nine games; five of their last seven went over the total. Bronx is 2-4 in last six games; six of their last ten games stayed under.

Red Sox @ Rays
Porcello is 2-1, 2.82 in his last three starts; four of his last six stayed under.

Moore is 0-3, 8.83 in his last four starts; over is 3-1-3 in his last seven.

Boston won three of last five games with Tampa Bay (over 4-1). Red Sox won five of last seven games (over 6-2 in last eight) overall. Rays lost five of last eight games; over is 6-3-1 in their last ten games.

Tigers @ Indians
Verlander is 2-2, 2.21 in his last five starts; seven of his last nine stayed under.

Anderson is 1-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; his last three at home went over.

Detroit lost four of last five games with Cleveland; seven of last nine games in series went over total. Tigers lost six of last nine games (over 6-3-1 in last ten). Indians won five of last seven games; their last three games went over the total.

A's @ Rangers
Nolin allowed three runs in six IP (85 PT) in his first start for Oakland.

Gallardo is 5-0, 1.93 in his last seven starts (under 6-1).

Oakland won five of last six games with Texas (over 7-2-2 in last 11); A's lost seven of last nine games overall; five of their last eight went over. Rangers is 6-4 in last ten games overall-- seven of their last eight games stayed under the total.

Twins @ White Sox
Milone is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five.

Quintana is 2-0, 3.86 in his last four starts; seven of his last eight went over

Minnesota won seven of last nine games with Chicago; over is 4-2-2 in last eight series games. Twins won three of last four games; under is 4-1-1 in their last six. White Sox lost three of last four games; seven of their last 11 went over the total.

Astros @ Angels
McCullers is 0-2, 5.31 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.

Santiago is 1-3, 7.56 in his last four starts; under is 5-2 in his last seven.

Houston won four of last six games with the Angels; under is 7-4 in last 11 games in series. Astros are 3-6 in last nine games overall; over is 7-3-1 in last eleven. Angels split their last six games; five of their last seven games stayed under.

Interleague
Rockies @ Mariners
Flande is 0-1, 6.91 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went over.

Elias is 0-2, 5.19 in his last three starts (under 3-1 in last four).

Colorado lost five of last seven games with Seattle (over 4-1-1 in last six); Rockies are 6-4 in last ten games overall (under 3-1 last four). Mariners won seven of their last ten games; five of their last six stayed under the total.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Chi-Phil-- Haren 14-14/4-3; Eickhoff 1-3
Mil-Pitt-- Davies 2-0; Locke 14-13
NY-Atl-- Syndergaard 11-9; Perez 6-10 (1-8 last 9)
Wsh-Mia-- Roark 4-3; Fernandez 5-2
StL-Cin-- Lynn 15-11; DeSclafani 12-15 (1-5 last 6)
LA-Az-- Bolsinger 10-7 (3-0 last 3); de la Rosa 16-12
SD-SF-- Kennedy 11-15; Bumgarner 18-10

KC-Balt-- Cueto 13-14/2-6 (0-4 last 4) Ventura 12-11; Tillman 12-14 (0-4 last 4)
Tor-NY-- Estrada 13-10; Stroman 0-0; Nova 6-7 Pineda 13-9
Bos-TB-- Porcello 11-12; Moore 2-5
Det-Clev-- Wolf 1-3; Bauer 13-15
A's-Tex-- Nolin 0-1; Gallardo 17-12 (8-1 last 9)
Min-Chi-- Milone 11-8; Quintana 13-15 (4-0 last 4)
Hst-LAA-- McCullers 8-9; Santiago 13-14 (1-5 last 6)

Col-Sea-- Flande 4-4; Elias 5-11

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Chi-Phil-- Haren 5-28; Eickhoff 2-4
Mil-Pitt-- Davies 0-2; Locke 8-27 (4 of last 6)
NY-Atl-- Syndergaard 6-20; Perez 6-16
Wsh-Mia-- Roark 2-7; Fernandez 1-7
StL-Cin-- Lynn 9-26; DeSclafani 6-27
LA-Az-- Bolsinger 5-17; de la Rosa 8-28
SD-SF-- Kennedy 10-26; Bumgarner 7-28

KC-Balt-- Cueto 7-27 Ventura; Tillman 5-26
Tor-NY-- Estrada 10-23; Stroman 0-0; Nova 2-13 Pineda 7-22
Bos-TB-- Porcello 5-23; Moore 3-7
Det-Clev-- Wolf 1-4; Bauer 7-28
A's-Tex-- Nolin 0-1; Gallardo 9-29
Min-Chi-- Milone 4-19; Quintana 15-28
Hst-LAA-- McCullers 5-17 (4 of last 6); Santiago 8-27

Col-Sea-- Flande 2-8; Elias 7-16 (4 of last 7)

Umpires
StL-Cin-- Underdogs are 5-3 in last eight Joyce games.
Chi-Phil-- Six of last seven Blakney games went over.
Mil-Pitt-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Reynolds games.
Wsh-Mia-- Eight of last nine Vanover games went over.
NY-Atl-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Segal games.
LA-Az-- Favorites won six of last eight Porter games.
SD-SF-- Under is 18-4-1 in last 23 Tumpane games.

KC-Balt-- Over is 10-5-1 in last sixteen HGibson games
Tor-NY-- Four of last five Scott games went over. Last three Knight games went over the total.
Bos-TB-- Under is 12-6-1 in last nineteen Hamari games.
Min-Chi-- Three of last four Wegner games stayed under.
A's-Tex-- Under is 13-7 in last 20 Hudson games.
Hst-LAA-- Four of last five Hallion games went over total.

Col-Sea-- Favorites won 18 of last 20 Fagan games.