Saturday 8/13/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Search
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*COLORADO*at*PHILADELPHIA
Play On - All underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (PHILADELPHIA) terrible offensive team - scoring <=3.8 runs/game on the season (NL) against opponent good offensive team - scoring >=4.8 runs/game on the season (NL)
68-45*over the last 5 seasons.**(*60.2%*|*35.7 units*)
10-9*this year.**(*52.6%*|*3.2 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*DETROIT*at*TEXAS
TEXAS is 52-36 (+21.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse*this season.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.7) , OPPONENT (4.5)
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

REDS (Straily) at BREWERS (Davies) 7:10 PM

Take: REDS F5 (anticipate Reds a very small dog)

Those who value metrics are likely going to cringe at this play. Since I adhere to focusing on those numbers myself, I can certainly understand any disdain for this selection. Based on the key analytics, Dan Straily has been getting blessed with some exceptionally good fortune of late. At some point that’s supposed to stop, and a regression is supposed to take place. Maybe that happens tonight at Milwaukee, but I’ll be making a bet that it won’t.

The fact is Straily is on a roll. Sure, some of the data says fluke, such as a ludicrously low BABIP in his last three starts. But the Reds keep winning when Straily takes the mound, with the current run at five straight winners. I’m not looking to get in the way of that nice run.

There’s no question that Brewers righty Zach Davies has superior metrics to Straily, and Davies is beginning to look like a guy Milwaukee can count on as a decent mid-rotation starting piece. I’m definitely not making this an anti-Davies play, as he’s been pretty solid for the Brewers.

I like the Cincinnati offense right now. They’re hitting, and even though this team was basically eliminated as a contender during spring training, the Reds haven’t been mailing it in. Neither have the Brewers, who were pretty much in the same boat. But the deadline deals did hurt this this roster, and I would submit that at this point, the Reds might actually be a stronger overall squad than the Brewers.

This is as F5 as it gets, as that Cincinnati bullpen remains a liability. It’s not as inept as it was earlier in the campaign, but the Reds relief corps is still very untrustworthy. So I’ll once again limit this to a first half only wager. Lucky or not, I’ll buy Straily to keep his roll going and the F5 bet is on the Reds.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Brad Diamond

White Sox vs Marlins

Bonus Play Miami Marlins (926) over Chicago White Sox

Normally, would not test lefty Conley (8-6, 3.70) of Miami laying such a prohibitive number, but hurler Shields (3-7, 6.68) of Chicago has been a downer this season. In fact, he lasted just 1-1/3 innings last time out against Baltimore in Chicago giving 8 earned runs. Conley too, did not have a strong recent start out in Colorado. Still, we can find reasons to back the home standing Marlins, including a 5-0 record with Conley versus a losing squad. Normally, the Sox fair well against lefties, but in interleague games versus port siders, they show just 3-8. Behind Shields the Sox have lost 4 straight road games and 1-5 L6 overall with the hurler. Chicago has done well in this series, but can’t support a 12-27 road mark this time around considering all factors.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Teddy Covers

Cowboys vs Rams

Take the LA Rams (#278)

If you’ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you’ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium. That won’t be the case on Saturday Night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn’t taking this preseason home opener lightly. After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there’s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA. His quote: “(We’re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team’s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.”

Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there’s no question that LA has expectations this August. Dallas does not. The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 margin. They lost all four preseason games in 2014 by five points or more, including an ugly 27-7 Week 1 blowout loss. In fact, their last Week 1 preseason win came back in 2012, with a 3-0 victory over Oakland. I’m confident that three points won’t be enough for Dallas to win or cover this one, and head coach Jason Garrett sure doesn’t seem as if he’s treating this year’s preseason opener any differently!

The Cowboys have a ‘top-heavy’ roster. They’ve paid their superstars well, but those stars have been injury prone, and the quality depth behind them has been extremely limited. That’s been most obvious at the quarterback position, where it’s going to be Dak Prescott and Jameil Showers for the full 60 minutes on Saturday Night in an effort to keep Tony Romo from taking hits, with backup Kellen Moore already hurt. Prescott will be facing NFL competition for the first time; Showers was in training camp last year but he’s notched just 125 total yards of preseason passing under his belt.

St Louis will be giving a rookie QB ample playing time as well, but that rookie QB was #1 overall draft pick Jared Goff, not a 4th rounder like Prescott. LA will also have Case Keenum starting and Sean Mannion coming off the bench; two veterans who are primed to move the offense. Even with the pointspread creeping higher as we approach kickoff, this is a classic preseason contest where one team gives a sh** and the other team just wants to get out of town healthy….. Take the Rams.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Sam Martin

Cowboys vs Rams

5* Bonus Play on Dallas vs. LA Rams Under (35.5)

Professional football returns to Los Angeles on Saturday when the LA Rams host the Dallas Cowboys. We're going to pass on the ATS winner in this game and instead focus on the over/under. Neither side was impressive offensively last August, as both teams were held to 14 points or fewer a combined six times in eight chances. Dallas and St. Louis both mustered just 12.0 ppg, with neither coaching staff even trying to be concerned with preseason win/loss results. Both of these teams might be targeted as "play against" in the next few weeks, but for now we look for both anemic, vanilla offensive game plans to result in an easy Under on Saturday night. Dallas has gone under the total in five of their last six chances as underdogs, and we look for that streak to continue as 14 points might just be enough to win this game outright! 5* Bonus Play on Dallas vs. LA Rams Under.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Marc Lawrence

Orioles vs Giants

Play - San Francisco Giants w/Bumgarner

Edges - Giants: Madison Bumgarner 5-0 with 0.69 ERA last 5 home team starts during August; and 1.70 ERA with 0.83 WHIP home team starts this season; and 2.20 ERA with 0.96 ERA last 7 overall team starts. Orioles: Kevin Gausman 5-19 last 24 overall away team starts; and 0-5 with 5.35 ERA last 5 away team starts during August. With Gausman 3-9 with a 5.37 ERA in his away team starts this season, as opposed to 5-3 with a 2.39 ERA at home, we recommend a 1* play on San Francisco. Thank you and good luck as always.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,947
Messages
13,575,535
Members
100,888
Latest member
bj88gameslife
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com