Saturday 8/13/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Week 8 CFL games

Calgary (4-1) @ Saskatchewan (1-5)– Roughriders were outscored 76-18 in losing last two games; they lost 35-15 (+10) in Calgary LW, Stampeders had 132 rushing yards in game that was only 16-12 at the half. Calgary won last five series games, scring 31+ points in all five; they won by 7-3 in last couple of trips to Regina. Under is 8-3 in last 11 series games. Stamps scored 37.3 ppg in winning their last three games; they’re 1-1-1 on road, tying Lions in Vancouver, losing in Ottawa.

Hamilton (3-3) @ British Columbia (4-2)– Lions (+5.5) won 28-3 in Hamilton July 6, snapping home series win streak at six; Hamilton lost its last four visits here, by 3-3-7-27 points. Five of last seven in series went over total. TiCats are on road for 4th game in row, with bye mixed in there; they’re 3-1 on road, losing in Winnipeg LW- road team won six of their seven games SU. Lions are home for first time in a month; they’re 1-1 at home. BC scored 39.7 ppg in winning two of last three games.

— Calgary Stampeders (-6, 54) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders
— Hamilton Tiger Cats @ British Columbia Lions (-2.5, 54.5)
— Underdogs*18-7 Home 7-20-1 vs spread Over: 10-16-2

 

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StatFox Super Situations

CFL*|*HAMILTON*at*BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 52 off 1 or more straight overs, good offensive team - scoring 29 or more points/game
90-43*since 1997.**(*67.7%*|*42.7 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)

CFL*|*CALGARY*at*SASKATCHEWAN
Play On - Home teams vs. the 1rst half line (SASKATCHEWAN) with a horrible scoring defense - allowing 32 or more points/game, after allowing 34 points or more in 2 straight games
29-6*since 1997.**(*82.9%*|*22.4 units*)
1-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*1.0 units*)

 

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Betting 101: Best ways to safely handicap the NFL preseason
By JASON LOGAN

So you want to bet NFL preseason football, do you?

Steering bettors away from the NFL’s unpredictable exhibition schedule is like trying to convince high school kids to wait until marriage, if you know what we mean. You aren’t going to convince them otherwise so you might as well preach about safe sex - or in this case safe betting habits.

We break down the best ways to handicap the NFL preseason slate and hope you don’t lose your shirt – and pants – by the time Week 1 rolls around:

Read everything

The great thing about the NFL preseason is that books and bettors are on the same level. Coaches don’t reveal their plans until usually the day before a game, and by that time odds have been up for a while. If you catch an online presser or read a quote from a coach spilling the beans on his starters’ playing time, you can quickly get down before the lines adjust.

Research is everything for preseason capping. Find out how many snaps the first teamers will get, what the focal point of the offseason is – offense or defense – and wager accordingly. Also, keep an eye on camp injuries or how veteran players are treating the tune-up games. Some star players go through the motions in August and ones limited by injuries won't risk going all out before the real games start.

A team that is trying to establish some momentum on the ground will likely run the ball a lot – therefore keeping the clock ticking and the final score Under the total. If a team is trying to fill roster spots in the secondary and is plugging in rookies and inexperienced player in its pass defense, than perhaps look at the other team to air it out and exploit those weaknesses.

QB depth

Much the way starting pitchers make up 90 percent of baseball handicapping, quarterbacks hold a similar value when betting on the preseason. It’s the most important position on the field and can single handedly make or break your bets.

Finding a team with depth at quarterback is the key for success during the exhibition schedule. The No. 1 passer will likely only take a handful of snaps in the first two games of the preseason, turning the offense over to the backups.

Look for teams with an experienced backup under center. Many clubs have veterans and former starters on the roster, guys who won’t be freaked out by the NFL’s big stage like rookie QBs and wet-behind-the-ears free agents. These vets can keep the chains moving and often excel against an opponent’s second and third-tier defense.

New coaches and schemes

The preseason is summer school for many NFL teams transitioning their playbook, whether that be with a new head coach, coordinator or just an overall flip in the way they do things.

New head coaches aren’t necessarily a red flag. They can often feel a little pressured to win in the preseason in order to impress the front office and fan base, which can give some teams added betting value. New coordinators, on the other hand, are working in different plays and schemes, which usually come with a learning curve.

Read up on how teams are adjusting to new systems and offenses, especially if there is a dramatic shift in gears, like speeding up with no-huddle attacks or going from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. When these teams take on established coaches, who have implemented their systems for a while, there can be value going against those new faces on the sideline.

Preseason lines

Come the regular season, the infamous 3-point spread is everywhere. And while a field-goal line is a key number in football betting, it loses some of its stature in the preseason.

Teams are more likely to go for a two-point conversion or try their luck on fourth-and-short in the preseason than play it safe. Not only do the games not matter, but a fourth down gamble or two-point attempt is an extra set for the offense as it works toward the regular season.

Depending on how those rolls of the dice play out, the final score can either be closer than three points or well over it. It’s rare to see a preseason spread of more than three points with most bouncing between 1-2.5 points.

Week to week

For those looking to bet the closest facsimile of Week 1 action during the preseason, you may want to pass on the first two weeks of exhibitions and save your marbles for Week 3. That’s when starting players tend to log the most time, working the majority of the first half and sometimes into the third quarter.

Week 1 and 2 often has first teams playing limited snaps – depending on the team’s situation – and Week 4 is pretty much a craps shoot. Coaches are making their final cuts, players are fighting to stay on the roster, and the coordinators are tightening the final nuts and bolts of their playbooks.

For those bettors who like a challenge, Week 4 of the preseason could be the trickiest week of the entire NFL schedule – preseason, regular season and playoffs – to wager on.

Editor's note: Originally published in August 2015.

 

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'Practice Season'

The first full week of NFL preseason football begins on Thursday, August 11 with six games on tap, followed by ten more over the next three days. Many sports bettors prefer a 'wait and see' attitude at this time of the year because most teams are content to limit activity of starters' while handing most duties to raw rookies making it tough identifying squads that will succeed during tune-up clashes.

However, there are still plenty of good wagering opportunities for those who wish to participate in preseason betting. Studying past histories of teams during August and certain coaches can glean wagering edges. A coach like Sean Payton instills a winning attitude during practice season which is why Saints have produce a solid 20-10 ATS stretch in August.

A guy like Andy Reid will spend more energy evaluating personnel rather than worry about improving Chiefs 10-19 SU, 7-19-3 ATS skid in warm-ups. Note: Reid's teams are 2-8-2 ATS in his last twelve HOF/WK1 preseason games with Kansas City and Philadelphia.

Interesting betting nugget. Super Bowl runner ups are not always the best bets the first week of August. Runner ups have a cash draining 1-7 ATS mark L8 years and 2-8 ATS record last ten in WK1 of preseason.

 

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Preseason Coaching Records
By Marc Lawrence

If you’re looking to make a quick score before the start of the 2016 NFL season then look no further than the coaches and their preseason tendencies.

It appears coaches like Jason Garrett, Hue Jackson and Chuck Pagano don’t appear to put much stock in exhibition play, as evidenced by their collective 13-28 SU and 13-27-1 collective ATS career marks during the preseason.

The same, however, cannot be said for Pete Carroll, John Harbaugh and Mike Zimmer who together are 53-29 SU and 53-28-1 ATS throughout the preseason.

Then there’s Mike McCarthy and Bill O’Brien, the epitomes of consistency throughout their NFL career during the preseason, sporting 20-20 and 4-4 SU, and 20-20 ATS and 4-4 ATS marks, respectively.

And if Totals (O/U) are your cup of tea, take a look at the defensive priorities of Bill O’Brien and Gus Bradley who have played 4-16 to the UNDER combined in their preseason games.

While on the other side of the coin Chip Kelly and Gary Kubiak seem more interested in fine tuning their offenses, going 33-13-2 OVER the total collectively in their exhibition games.

Please Note: O/U records are since 1999. O/U records with an asterisk (*) represent the coaches’ totals performance in preseason games since 1999 only.

All other results are as an NFL head coach throughout his career.

With that we present another PLAYBOOK exclusive, the 2016 NFL Preseason Coaches records.

Enjoy…

Preseason Records (1999-2015)
Team-Coach SU ATS O/U
Arizona – Bruce Arians 6-6 7-4-1 6-6
Atlanta – Dan Quinn 2-2 2-2 3-1
Baltimore - John Harbaugh 20-12 19-13 17-15
Buffalo – Rex Ryan 13-15 13-15 19-9
Carolina - Ron Rivera 11-9 11-9 10-10
Chicago – John Fox 31-25 27-28-1 27-28-1
Cincinnati - Marvin Lewis 28-25 28-24-1 26-27
Cleveland – Hue Jackson 0-4 0-4 2-2
Dallas - Jason Garrett 8-13 6-14-1 8-12-1
Denver – Gary Kubiak 22-14 22-12-2 23-11-2
Detroit - Jim Caldwell 8-12 10-1 9-11
Green Bay - Mike McCarthy 20-20 20-20 26-14
Houston – Bill O’Brien 4-4 4-4 1-7
Indianapolis – Chuck Pagano 5-11 7-9 6-9
Jacksonville – Gus Bradley 4-8 6-6 3-9
Kansas City - Andy Reid* 32-36 30-34-4 39-27-2
Los Angeles - Jeff Fisher 38-42 37-41-2 38-28
Miami - Adam Gase - - -
Minnesota – Mike Zimmer 8-1 7-2 4-5
New England - Bill Belichick* 46-39 42-36-7 31-33-1
New Orleans – Sean Payton 19-18 21-16 19-15-3
New York Giants - Ben McAdoo - - -
New York Jets – Todd Bowles 3-1 3-1 2-2
Oakland – Jack Del Rio 22-18 21-17-2 22-18
Philadelphia - Doug Pederson - - -
Pittsburgh - Mike Tomlin 21-17 16-21-1 15-22-1
San Diego – Mike McCoy 5-7 7-4-1 5-7
San Francisco – Chip Kelly 7-5 7-5 10-2
Seattle - Pete Carroll* 25-16 27-13-1 17-11
Tampa Bay - Dirk Koetter - - -
Tennessee - Mike Mularkey 6-6 7-5 5-6-1
Washington - Jay Gruden 6-2 5-3 2-6

 

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New Coaches Report
By Chip Chirimbes

Every season there are a plethora of 'new' coaches that are starting with a new team or have a head coaching job for the first time in the NFL. How they fare during the regular season and preseason can have a dramatic difference. There are a number of factors and scenarios that will play out and I will try and help you take advantage of of their strengths or weaknesses.

I will list them and give you the reasons they will or will not make 'us' money during these meaningless 'exhibition' (not called exhibition games as the owners still receive full price for season ticket holders) games. Some coaches will feel a need to impress either the fan base or owners early on...lets see who does!

New York Giants - Ben McAdoo
Plenty of attention will be paid to McAdoo, who replaced two-time Super Bowl winning coach Tom Coughlin and just being in New York will put added pressure on him to succeed. Not that all NFL coaches aren't under pressure, but the Big Apple media is like none other. McAdoo was promoted from offensive coordinator and many wonder why him after realizing the Giants were 6-10 in both of his two seasons leading the offense.

I look for New York to start fast in the preseason as the entire offense won't have to spend time learning a new system and they have a veteran quarterback in Eli Manning who knows how to make the offense work on the fly. The Giants' back-up Ryan Nassib will see plenty of preseason action and already understands the offense and during this time of the year it is a major advantage. The defense will be run by Steve Spagnuolo who returned last season and they were dead last in total defense last season. He did not fare well in his first stint with the Giants in 2006 and 2007. Look for the offense to play well early until the 'others' catch-up to the Giants as the preseason moves forward. Take New York early to get the money!

Miami Dolphins - Adam Gase
Gase come from the Chicago Bears and there are questions as to how he will fare coming from a team full of dissension and a spotty offense that never reached its potential. Gase comes to a club even more dysfunctional than the Bears as Miami's offense has had no running game to speak of and their offensive line has allowed quarterback Ryan Tannehill little time to develop as he was sacked more times than any other QB in the league the past two seasons.

Add that the Dolphins have had a number of defections on both sides of the ball and Gase will virtually have to start from stretch. This is his first head coaching job and he will get plenty of on-the job-training. There is just too much to do in such a short period of time before the opening preseason contest and Gase will still be evaluating talent when the regular season begins.

Tennessee Titans - Mike Mularkey
Mularkey doesn't actually qualify as a 'new' head coach as he was the Titans interim coach last season taking over just before the mid-point of the season and Tennessee was just 2-7 with him in the lead. One of the first things he did upon being named head coach was revamp his staff hiring experience in Dick LeBeau, Terry Robiskie, Russ Grimm, Bobby April, Sylvester Croom and Bob Bratkowski. That may all help but the question really is does Mularkey have what it takes to be a winning NFL head coach?

He has had three and a half seasons as a head coach in the NFL and he is a dismal 18-39 as a leader. The best thing he has going for himself is that the Titans have a young and talented quarterback in Marcus Mariota and the newly acquired running backs Demarco Murray and Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry. Look for Henry to get plenty of work early and Tennessee who does play smash mouth defense to impress early on as the defense that will dominate during the preseason.

Philadelphia Eagles - Doug Pederson
On the surface, Philadelphia appears to be in disarray as the lost their head coach and have a new quarterback and new running back. Former Chiefs offensive coordinator Doug Pederson has taken over the reins and although he was coaching high school football eight years ago, he has NFL experience. As a former NFL quarterback as a back-up for 11 years, Pederson will enjoy working with the trio of San Bradford, Chase Daniel and No. 2 overall draft pick Carson Wentz, who is not expected to compete for a starting job this season.

This should be a transition year for the Eagles and there will be little pressure on Pederson as not much is expected of this year's Eagles. But, remember that Philly fans are not the kindest of supporters. Pederson brought in defensive wiz Jim Schwartz to handle that that side of the ball so that he can concentrate on his offense. It should be slowing going early, but they have no where to go but up.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Dirk Koetter
Lovie Smith is gone and one of the reasons is that he just could not instill discipline on a club that committed an NFL-high 143 penalties. New head coach Dirk Koetter worked well with the development of Jameis Winston, which had the No. 5 offense in the NFL last season. So it is not the offense that he has to worry about, it is a pass defense that had opponents' quarterbacks play to a 102.5 rating and a 70% completion rate.

The Buccaneers play their first two preseason games on the road, the first of which is at Philadelphia where they embarrassed the Eagles, 45-17 last November, so be careful in that one. Tampa Bay has finished in the division basement five straight seasons and can improve, but not enough to contend with Carolina because defense wins...see Broncos.

San Francisco 49ers - Chip Kelly
If you remember when Chip Kelly started with Philadelphia, he came out gunning in the preseason and had everybody swooning over his no-huddle offense that put up a large number of points in these meaningless games. The pressure is even greater now that he has moved back to the West Coast and he has two quarterbacks that will be dueling for a starting spot. San Francisco posted only five wins last season as quarterback Colin Kaepernick was a bust and Blaine Gabbert emerged as the starter before season's end.

Kelly will bring a fresh attitude for the offense and the open at home as the lone game on a Monday night. He will look to impress the fan base and have his troupe excited to start anew. Take the 49ers in their preseason opener!

Cleveland Browns - Hue Jackson
An entirely new coaching staff in Cleveland will join head coach Hue Jackson and 'new' quarterback Robert Griffin III will at least help the attitude of a franchise that has never even appeared in the Super Bowl after 50 years of competition. The Browns have had two winning seasons in 15 years and are off a 3-13 year their worst since 2000, but Jackson will bring positive energy to the franchise. He is a quarterback guru and the sideshow of Johnny Manziel is a thing of that past and with the return of wide receiver Josh Gordon, they should should huge improvement, especially early in the year.

This team has the most room for improvement and you will see it right away. Josh McCown who started most of last season will see plenty of action along with USC standout quarterback Cody Kessler and they will provide a strong offensive showing during the preseason. Competition is good and the Browns will be better.

 

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Saturday's Preseason Tips
By Tony Mejia

Seahawks at Chiefs (-2, 35 ½) – 4:30 PM EST

Seattle
Head coach: Pete Carroll (25-16 SU, 27-13-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Russell Wilson, Trevone Boykin (Rookie), Jake Heaps
Beat Twitter Follow: Gregg Bell

Wilson had an eventful offseason, marrying Ciara, but it wasn't quite as hectic as former top backup Tarvaris Jackson, who got himself arrested for gun charges and wasn't re-signed. For now, that leaves a gaping hole behind Wilson, who may make a cameo here before turning it over so his current backups can show Carroll what they've got. Boykin starred at TCU and is a dynamic pass/run threat. Heaps, who played at BYU, has had a strong camp. The Seahawks have won 11 of their last 15 preseason contests, but have gone just 2-2 the past two seasons. Seattle has averaged 31.4 points over its last six preseason home games.

Kansas City
Head Coach: Andy Reid (32-36 SU, 30-34-4 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Alex Smith, Nick Foles, Aaron Murray, Tyler Bray, Kevin Hogan (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Terez Paylor

The Chiefs are also looking to determine their situation at backup QB, but have many more options to work with. Behind Smith, the recently-signed Foles has already emerged as the top option, but will be looking to show Reid what he’s retained of the system. Bray and Murray, prolific college passers, are fighting for a roster spot. X-factor Tyreek Hill, a fifth-round pick out of West Alabama, has been the talk of camp and could command attention similar to how Seattle’s Tyler Lockett managed to last preseason. Kansas City went a perfect 4-0 in last year’s exhibitions.

Colts at Bills (-2 ½, 37) – 7 PM EST

Indianapolis
Head coach: Chuck Pagano (5-11 SU, 7-9 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Andrew Luck, Scott Tolzien, Stephen Morris
Beat Twitter Follow: Stephen Holder

Luck was probably going to take a few snaps in the Hall of Fame game, but he's likely to get a couple series here before giving way to his backups. Pagano has lost eight of his nine exhibition games, with the lone victory coming in the key third one, so he doesn't put a lot of stock in results. The Colts have a new defensive coordinator in Ted Monachino, who has spent the last five years as Ravens linebackers coach. That side of the ball should be eager to make an impression, so we'll see how aggressive the defense plays.

Buffalo
Head Coach: Rex Ryan (13-15 SU, 13-15 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tyrod Taylor, E.J. Manuel, Cardale Jones (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Mike Rodak
Taylor just signed a six-year, $92 million extension that got him a raise if nothing else, so he'll be a happy man taking the field for the opening quarter. Ryan's plan is to ride Manuel in the second and Jones after halftime, so we'll see how the Ohio State product has progressed for an entire half. Ryan went 2-2 in his first exhibition season in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins is being brought back slowly and injuries have been an issue for the Bills throughout camp, so look for the second half to be dominated by roster longshots. Reggie Bush won't go.

Cowboys at Rams (-5, 35 ½) – 8:00 PM EST

Dallas
Head coach: Jason Garrett (8-13 SU, 6-14-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback Rotation: Tony Romo, Dak Prescott (Rookie), Jameill Showers
Beat Twitter Follow: David Moore

The Cowboys have held out Dez Bryant and Jason Witten while taking baby steps with Romo. They've erred on the side of caution with top pick Ezekiel Elliott, who has sat with a hamstring issue. Dallas has a lot of work to do as far as truly identifying where its backup quarterback situation lies, but have been installed as the heaviest underdog in Preseason Week 1 for a reason. Garrett has lost 10 of his last 12 exhibitions.

Los Angeles
Head coach: Jeff Fisher (38-42 SU, 37-41-2 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Case Keenum, Jared Goff (Rookie), Sean Mannion, Dylan Thompson
Beat Twitter Follow: Gary Klein

Only New England's Bill Belichick has won more preseason games among active coaches, but no one has lost more than Fisher. The 58-year-old was even at the helm the last time a team relocated and won his preseason home opener back in 1999 on a Friday night in Nashville, doing so with the Titans. The L.A. native is certainly going to have his team up to make a good first impression on the patrons at the Coliseum in this nationally-televised contest. He'll play Goff, the NFL's top draft pick, extensively, doing so after giving the veteran Keenum first crack.

Chargers at Titans (-3, 35 ½) – 7 PM EST

San Diego
Head coach: Mike McCoy (5-7 SU, 7-4-1 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Philip Rivers, Kellen Clemens, Zach Mettenberger, Mike Bercovici (Rookie)
Beat Twitter Follow: Tom Krasovic

The Chargers are hoping Melvin Gordon can bounce back from a disappointing rookie season that never got going well since he was having ankle issues this time last year. Rivers only took nine snaps in last year's second exhibition game and isn't likely to participate too long in this one. Donald Brown should be back from a hip injury and should see increased reps with Gordon out. Attrition has already been an issue in camp, as has the continued absence of top pick Joey Bosa due to a contract holdout. After losing their first two preseason home games under McCoy by a combined score of 72-16, the Chargers are 3-1 in Qualcomm exhibitions since, surrendering just 9.5 points per game.

Tennessee
Head coach: Mike Mularkey (6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS in preseason)
Quarterback rotation: Marcus Mariota, Matt Cassel, Alex Tanney
Beat Twitter Follow: Jim Wyatt

Mularkey has a chance to call the shots in a preaseason for the first time since 2012, his only season with Jacksonville. He went 2-7 and presided over Mariota's continued emergence, so it's ironic that his former boss Ken Whisenhunt, who drafted Mariota and began his development, returns here as San Diego's offensive coordinator. He'll start and watch his new backup (Cassel) and old one (Mettenberger) undoubtedly get more time in this one. Defensively, veteran mastermind Dick LeBeau doesn't put much on display this time of year, so expect plenty of vanilla.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We all have our bad beat stories and the one that sticks and I can’t get out of my mind is the 2004 Arlington Million (G1). Despite being a dozen years ago, I remember it like it was yesterday.

My top pick was Powerscourt, and he was sent off at odd of 9-2. The Pick 4 was relatively new as I recall, and there was a NTRA Pick 4, which I was alive to my top pick that was paying nicely, something around $1,800.

Powerscourt was much the best and rolled to a 1 ½ length win, but jockey Jamie Spencer went to the right handed stick and Powerscourt drifted in inside the final furlong, causing interference.

There was a long steward’s inquiry and he was taken down and placed second, with Kicken Kris moved up to the winner, returning $21.40 and completing the NTRA Pick 4 which paid $2,705.

I remember watching the race on my back patio and dropping some profanity that all my neighbors could easily hear. Spencer just needed to put the stick away and hang on for the ride, and Powerscourt would have won easily.

It was one of the worst rides I have ever witnessed in a Grade 1 race. Well, I am biased, so maybe it just seems like it was.

Powerscourt did come back and win the 2005 Arlington Million under jockey Kieran Fallon and paid $12.40.

Spencer went on to butcher rides in major stakes seemingly whenever he came to the U.S.

I have had pretty good luck on Arlington Million Day since, and we have a good card today, with this year’s edition of the Million drawing a solid field of 13 runners.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Clm $25,000N2L (1:00 ET)
#6 Baby Bear's Soup 8-5
#2 Frosti Agosti 5-2
#3 Call Me Stony 9-5
#1 New York's Zip 10-1

Analysis: Baby Bear's Soup makes his first start since January for the Pletcher barn that is 35% winners (with a +ROI) with runners returning off a +180-day layoff. The gelding broke his maiden for a $75,000 tag two back at Gulfstream Park in his third career start. He then pressed the early pace and weakened to finish sixth against a solid group of Alw-1 optional claimers in his first start against winners. The winner of that race Cherry Wine was the runner up in the Preakness (G1) while the runner up Battery came back to beat Alw-1 foes in his next outing. The Pletcher trainee is bred to like a wet track which we likely see today. He is by Big Brown out of a Touch Gold mare.

Frosti Agosti also races as a gelding for the first time here. He tracked the early pace, had to wait for some running room nearing the quarterpole and finished evenly in a fourth place finish last out at this level. He was claimed out of the race by the Englehart barn that is 22% winners first off the claim. He did not handle the mud in his second career start but does have a solid wet track pedigree.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 10 The Fourstardave Hcp G1 (6:32 ET)
#5 Grand Arch 8-1
#6 Tourist 5-2
#4 Takeover Target 7-2
#10 Ring Weekend 3-1

Analysis: Grand Arch is the defending champ of this race and won the Shadwell Turf Mile (G1) in his following start last year. Two back off a seven-month layoff he ran a game third in the Dixie (G2), then regressed last out in the Poker (G3) where he weakened to finish sixth. He has come back with good works since that subpar effort and he is much better than he showed last out. He should be primed for a top effort third off the bench for the Lynch barn. Decent value if he goes off near his 8-1 morning line and he won this race last year at those odds. He has handled ground less than firm including winning the Shadwell Turf Mile over yielding footing.

Tourist was a game second in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) last out at Santa Anita, beaten a half-length by Midnight Storm, who came back to win the Eddie Read (G2) in his next outing on July 17. He has lost five in a row since taking last year's More Than Ready at Kentucky Downs but comes in here owning the top last out speed fig.

Takeover Target came up short last out in a fourth place finish in the Poker, beaten 7 1/4 lengths, regressing off a game neck win two back in the Dixie (G2). This guy likes some give to the ground and may get it today with some rain in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. He won the Hall of Fame (G2) here last summer. He figures to bounce back with a better effort than we saw last out.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 4,5,6,10
TRI: 5,6 / 4,5,6,10 / 4,5,6,9,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Arlington Million:

AP Race 9 The Arlington Million G1 (5:09 CT)
#9 Mondisliste 8-1
#10 Wake Forest 5-1
#13 Deauville 6-1
#12 Tryster 7-2

Analysis: Mondisliste looks as if he may be back on track after a good second in the York Stakes (G2) last out at 1 5/16 miles. he was not a threat in his three previous starts in Group 1 company. He came to the U.S. last year and won the Woodbine Mile (G1) and was a game second in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1) behind Tepin. He handled ground with some give to it in his two starts in the U.S. last year and likely catches it again here with rain falling on Friday. Decent value of this guy goes off near his 8-1 morning line.

Wake Forest was the beaten favorite last out over good ground at Monmouth Park in the United Nations (G1). Two back he won the Man O' War (G1) at Belmont Park going 1 3/8 miles. His U.S. debut came in this race last year where he checked in sixth at 16-1 over yielding ground. Brown won this race in 2013 with Real Solution thanks to a DQ of The Apache.

Deauville was a game winner of the Belmont Derby (G1) last out in his U.S. debut for the O'Brien barn. Instead of going to the Secretariat against straight three-year-olds he takes on older for the first time here. O'Brien has won this race twice, with Cape Blanco in 2011 and Powerscourt in 2005 and should have won it in 2004 except for a dumb ride by Jamie Spencer that got Powerscourt DQ'd and cost me a huge Pick 4. By Galileo out of a Danehill mare, the distance is no problem and I sure don't mind the jock switch.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-2 or better.
EX: 9,10 / 9,10,12 13
TRI: 9,10 / 9,10,12,13 / 9,10,11,12,13

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R1: #1 New York’s Zip 10-1
R3: #3 Confederate 8-1
R5: #8 Thaddeus 10-1
R6: #12 Bashart 15-1
R6: #3 Made in Detroit 12-1
R6: #11 With Exultation 8-1
R8: #32 Sanctify 8-1
R8: #9 Dream Doctor 8-1
R8: #10 Front 12-1
R10: #5 Grand Arch 8-1
R11: #7 Not So Quiet Man 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Running Aces

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Post: 8:56 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$4800 - N/W OF $2000 IN LAST 4 STARTS AE: N/W OF 5
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 AMPED UP HANOVER 2/1
# 5 EX KING 5/2
# 3 CANTORIA 5/1

AMPED UP HANOVER gets the edge as our best wagering option in this race. This solid standardbred may have some hidden form, a win would be a pleasant surprise. This horse may have some hidden form, a victory would be a pleasant surprise. This race could very well be controlled by this gelding. A single look at the avgerage TrackMaster Speed Rating will prove that. EX KING - Seems to have a formidable class edge based on the opponents he has raced against. Plano is racking up the wins within the recent past. Great win statistic makes this harness racer our pick. CANTORIA - Could be considered in this contest if only for the formidable speed fig achieved in the most recent competition. With one of the most competitive drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this mare out of the affair.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Century Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Post: 1:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 83 - Purse:$10500 - OPEN FILLIES & MARES
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 3 TAJMEALLOVER 2/1
# 6 THATS EXTRA 3/1
# 4 SKADE 9/2

Look no further than TAJMEALLOVER as the bet this time. This mare getting the ultimate prize wouldn't be impossible, a chance. Overall statistics appear very good. Can't throw out at this point. The knowledge group knows that speed is very important in harness racing. This horse will unlock our way to a nice victory. THATS EXTRA - This entrant may wake up with a medication change (with second time Lasix) today. Earned a 80 speed rating in last race. A duplicate affair here should get the trip to the winner's circle today. SKADE - She looks nice in this race and should find a way to take advantage of favorable pace statistics.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 MIGHTY MARINI 7/2

# 2 TRIBE OF GAMBLERS 3/1

# 6 ROMAN ASSAULT 7/2

MIGHTY MARINI looks solid to best this field. His chances to prove victorious are much better this time out facing this easier field. Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group recently. With Bednar getting the mount, watch out for this animal. TRIBE OF GAMBLERS - His chances to win are much better this time around facing this softer bunch. Should best this field here, showing very good numbers of late. ROMAN ASSAULT - Hernandez has strong numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender. Will almost certainly compete very well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Trial - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 55

FOR TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BREDS THAT WERE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE 2016 RIO GRANDE SENORITA FUTURITY. ALL HORSES MUST ENTER FOR THE TRIAL ON SATURDAY AUGUST 6, 2016 BY 10:00 A.M. AND PAY $800 ENTRY FEE. QUALIFIERS WILL BE DETERMINED BY ORDER OF FINISH, TEN HORSE GATE FOR THE FINALS. LATE NOMINATIONS OF $10,000 WILL BE ACCEPTED AT


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 RUNAWAY QUEEN 3/1

# 3 FASTINATING ALLIE 5/1

# 4 RITZY WAON 4/1

RUNAWAY QUEEN looks very good to best this field. Has competitive front speed and ought to fare well versus this group of horses. This filly could improve with second time Lasix. Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been decent - 55 avg - of late. FASTINATING ALLIE - Has strong early pace and will probably fare admirably versus this group. Win percentage with this jockey and handler combo - 16 percent - solid. RITZY WAON - Is difficult not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been solid - 54 avg - of late. Put up a strong speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Ellis Park - Race #9 - Post: 4:40pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,600 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#7 INDYGO DEVIL (ML=15/1)
#15 A HE'S AN O'PRADO (ML=3/1)
#4 HARBOR BOUND (ML=4/1)
#13 OPTICAL (ML=10/1)
#11 HELLO PEOPLE (ML=8/1)


INDYGO DEVIL - This gelding was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think he's ready for today's event. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a high win pct, right around 33. Took a big class drop last out, and I think he may have needed it. House enters him at a similar class level today. I'd expect an improved performance. A HE'S AN O'PRADO - In this race here, this race horse has registered the highest speed figure at the distance, so I have to give him the edge. Graham and Sharp perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +42 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. I like horses that return to a similar class level after dropping at least five class-rating points like this one did in the last race. I believe he'll be competitive at this level. HARBOR BOUND - This gelding is in nice condition. Ran second on July 30th. This gelding was impressive in finishing second on a slow track on July 30th. A signal that he should do well against these horses in his first turf try. Another way to determine class is earnings per race. This racer has the topmost in the field. I think he'll be close at the finish. OPTICAL - Osorio and Catalano have had great success together over the last year. Osorio is up for another event today after riding on board this horse for the first ride on July 2nd and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. Past performance lines show this horse with 3 improving speed figs. Osorio should be on a live horse in this event. HELLO PEOPLE - Hoagland has this gelding entered in the perfect contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 PURELY GRATEFUL (ML=9/2), #3 PADDYRYAN (ML=5/1), #8 WOLF BAYOU (ML=6/1),

PURELY GRATEFUL - Hard to put your dough on this front-runner. Too much early zip in the clash. Unlikely that the speed fig he registered on July 10th will be good enough in this race. PADDYRYAN - The pace scenario just isn't too promising for this early speedball. Many other thoroughbreds would have to scratch to help his dreams at winning. WOLF BAYOU - This questionable contender ran a common speed rating last out. He shouldn't improve and will likely suffer defeat in today's event running that figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#7 INDYGO DEVIL is going to be the play if we are getting 6/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,15] Box [4,7] Box [7,13] Box [7,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[7,15] with [4,7,15] with [4,7,11,13,15] with [4,7,11,13,15] Total Cost: $24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Prairie Meadows - Race #8 - Post: 4:08pm - Stakes - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 85 Donna Reed S.

Rating:

#6 KERA KERA (ML=12/1)
#4 ELLA'S GLORY (ML=7/2)
#7 STELAWITHANATITUDE (ML=6/1)
#2 BEAUTIFUL BIRD (ML=9/2)
#11 WAIT N C SPRING (ML=12/1)


KERA KERA - Stevens seems to have this filly primed for a big effort. Her workout pattern is outstanding. This rider and handler have a great winning percent when they team up. This horse could be a possible overlay in this event at morning line odds of 12/1. Finished fifth in last race at Prairie Meadows but was close at the finish. ELLA'S GLORY - Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of strong contenders. This jockey and trainer have a positive ROI when they combine forces. This horse coming off a solid effort in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my opinion. Chleborad seems to have this mare primed for a big effort. Her workout pattern is outstanding. The improved speed ratings over the last 3 races is great. Chleborad drops her in this clash fit and ready to go. You have to be keen on that latest race speed fig, 82, which is the top most recent race speed rating of this bunch. Dropping 6 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today. STELAWITHANATITUDE - The morning line odds on this mare are higher than those of the other entrant from the shedrow of trainer Chleborad. Often the longer-priced part of a 'split' entry wins. Last raced at Prairie Meadows carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight right here should serve her well. BEAUTIFUL BIRD - A filly like this one, almost always in the money, usually makes an excellent trifecta key horse. I like to play this angle, a campaigner coming back off a strong outing within the last thirty days. WAIT N C SPRING - For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of readiness there is. Look at that last one - 48.6. Very impressive.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 RAEGEN HARPER (ML=6/1), #3 RALLYDOWNTHEALLEY (ML=8/1),

RAEGEN HARPER - Ran well to finish second on July 24th, but hasn't had nary a single workout since then. RALLYDOWNTHEALLEY - Didn't meet expectations when favored back to back.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

#6 KERA KERA to win at post-time odds of 5/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [4,6] Box [6,7] Box [2,6] Box [6,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

[4,6,7] with [2,4,6,7,11] with [2,4,6,7,11] Total Cost: $36

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

[4,6] with [4,6,7] with [2,4,6,7,11] with [2,4,6,7,11] Total Cost: $24

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Saratoga

RACE #9 - SARATOGA RACE COURSE - 5:14 PM EASTERN POST

The Adirondack Stakes

6½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE II TWO YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#6 EVER SO CLEVER
#5 LIBBY'S TAIL
#3 SILVERTONI
#2 NONNA MELA

Well folks ... the Adirondack is named after the mountain region in northeastern New York State that lies north of Saratoga and is bounded by the Canadian border on the north, the Mohawk River valley on the south, the Saint Lawrence River and Black River valleys on the west, and the Lake Champlain area on the east. The Adirondacks are composed mainly of metamorphic and igneous rock, and are among the oldest in the world. Adirondack Park, established in 1892, houses Mount Marcy, the highest summit in the State of New York (5,344 feet). Here in the 100th renewal of this stakes event, Here in the 100th running of this stakes event, #6 EVER SO CLEVER, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," will feel that "LASIX LIFT" for the 2nd time today, and comes off a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking," 43 day ago at Churchill Downs. #5 LIBBY'S TAIL, the morning line favorite, also comes off a "first asking win," although that "Circle Trip" did not meet my criteria to be called a "POWER RUN." Jockey Irad Ortiz was in her irons for that win, 41 days ago at Belmont Park, and is back this afternoon here at "The Spa" for his 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Saturday 8/13 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF

Race 6 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (14 - 25 / $69.00): SUNSET DREAMER (5th)

Spot Play: SOUPBEANS ERNIE (3rd)


Race 1

(2) SPIRITED ENCOUNTER has been knocking on the door at this level despite the miscue last week. The pacer can beat this bunch with his best effort. (1) FANCY CREEK LINK two-year-old pacer gets the best post and showed a good late burst last week. (4) DAVY DUNE has made breaks in two of four but has flashed ability.

Race 2

(6) FOX VALLEY ELIJAH four-year-old probably has more to offer off a game victory. (2) IDEAL ROWAN pacer was loaded with late pace when last seen on the track. (4) OLD MAN RIVER always offers low value but is a major player with a smooth trip.

Race 3

(6) SOUPBEANS ERNIE just beat similar the start prior and looks to offer a nice price. (8) STRONG PLAYIN KING gets sent out for a capable barn against a field full of question marks. (3) SLEAZY DUDE has burned cash in five straight; command a price.

Race 4

(5) DELIGHT FASHION well bred pacer has been facing much tougher. The 4-year-old should find this spot to his liking especially with a trouble-free trip. (3) FOX VALLEY CUPID rarely wins but is capable of hitting the ticket at a big price; use underneath. (8) MAJOR ED set a season's mark last start very impressively. The pacer will look to keep it going against much tougher.

Race 5

(1) SUNSET DREAMER impeccably bred gelding takes a big drop down in class. The pacer just needs a good setup to come storming by late. (3) MONTERO BLUE CHIP is one of few threats in the race but needs a good setup. (2) VICTOR BAYAMA is very inconsistent from week to week. A good effort puts him in the mix.

Race 6

(3) FANTASTIC ROCK well bred pacer drops down to the bottom level; threat. (8) SUMMER SHANDY was much better last week after a lackluster effort the start prior. (5) DONTGETBYME just missed last week racing gamely.

Race 7

(5) MASTER OF DESIRE owns wins against much better on the year. The veteran pacer is the horse to beat with a smooth trip. (4) DOC'S DEAL is one of few in that has not been racing at the bottom level. (1) SHRAYRAY made a break last week but gets sent out for a capable barn.

Race 8

In a field with few contenders, (6) TRIPLE LANE MELODY owns a touch of back class against most of the field. The pacer just missed last week against a much better bunch. (7) SCARLET N SILK mare is probably the only threat to the top choice but will need a big turnaround from her last few efforts. (2) GENTLE JANET pacing mare looks to be in line for a nice ground-saving trip up close.

Race 9

(5) CHLO'S RICHESS comes off a nice maiden breaking score. The pacer might be starting to blossom but is getting sent out for a low percentage pilot. (8) EVERGREEN ELITE beat the top choice soundly a few starts ago but does come off a nasty break at Hoosier. (7) SAGEBRUSH SID hits the board a lot but is 0 for the year; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 8/13 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 1,2,4/6,8/5,7,8/2,3,9/2,7 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 2,3,9/2,7/1,3,7/1,3,5,6 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,6/7,8,9/3/3,4,9 = $27

MEET STATS: 271 - 780 / $1441.80 BEST BETS: 44 - 72 / $142.90

SPOT PLAYS: 17 - 72 / $86.60

Best Bet: TRACEUR HANOVER (10th)

Spot Play: SHOOT THE THRILL (5th)


Race 1

(4) LOVETHEWAYYOULOOK went a big trip on the rim last week and just failed to hold off a big favorite that was making a big class drop. She looks best here and should get the job done if given a reasonable trip. (2) LIGHTS GO OUT is in excellent form. She should be a threat from close range here. (1) RIDE AWAY SHARK should get a good trip leaving from the inside and is another that can threaten here. (3) MISS COCO LUCK has returned from a break in good form. She should take at least a minor share here.

Race 2

(8) LISVINNIE was aggressively driven to a powerful win that was only one tick off his life's mark last week. He can take another here despite the class rise. (6) BRINGHOME THEBLUE is due for a better trip and some luck and can beat these if he gets a bit of both. (9) SING FOR ME GEORGE and (5) AMERICAN ROCK are two good ones to use on the bottom of exotic wagers here but neither has registered a win yet this year.

Race 3

(5) WORLDCLASS HANOVER was in a prime spot going into the final turn last week then broke and lost all chance. If she stays flat here, she should be right there at the wire. (7) MERCHANDISER was hung out to dry last week and paid the price. If he can clear early here, he could take these much farther. (8) HILLS ANGEL has a weak win record but will probably take another share here. (4) UNICUM BI steps up off a sharp win and isn't out of this.

Race 4

(2) BRING ME DIAMONDS moves inside and might be able to work out a winning trip here at a price. (3) FOREVER LIZA is on a roll and is the filly to beat here. (9) TOP ROYAL comes off a big winning trip where she took a new life's mark but she has been inconsistent. Toss on Pick 4 and Pick 5 bets off that trip. (7) ICTHELIGHT HANOVER seems likely to take a smaller share here.

Race 5

(2) SHOOT THE THRILL finished quickly last time now moves back inside. Expect an early aggressive move here. (7) MURMUR HANOVER seems obvious with the big class drop, but he isn't the most reliable sort. Beware taking too short a price. (1) CROWN CLASSIC has improving form and is in with a shot starting from the inside. (6) BAX OF LIFE continues to take minor awards which will likely continue here.

Race 6

(7) WINDSONGMAGNIFIQUE should get a good pace to chase here and gets a slight nod in a field with several possibilities. (3) FREE SHOW faces easier here and she should be heard from. (1) THISORTHAT HANOVER paid the price for pacing a :26 3/5 third 1/4 while making a move to the front last week. She could do here with more careful rating. (2) TRILIFE has shown dramatic improvement in her past two starts; beware.

Race 7

(5) DRACHAN HANOVER equaled his life's mark last week and could get a similarly good trip here. Call to repeat. (3) SHADOW PLACE moves inside and returns to a 7-day cycle. He should be a square price, too; using. (1) DUC DORLEANS is an obvious threat from close range here; using. (6) CARACCI HANOVER was a winner three back when making a similar class drop and he can't be dismissed totally, either.

Race 8

(6) DUH BUBBEES was passively driven last week and showed little but was a sharp winner in a similar class to this one two back over a horse that came back to set a track record at Grand River on Wednesday. I'll give him the nod here hoping he is being sent early. (5) FIVE BELOW has done well in his past two for Macdonald and he retains that hot driver; using. (3) AMITYVILLE LINDY went a huge trip on the rim to win last week and should be considered for Pick 4 bets here. (4) RENEGADE MAGIC seems likely to be closing for a lesser share.

Race 9

(7) NICKLE BAG was the only one to move on Evenin of Pleasure last week and that rival is absent here. Look for Henry to try to seize control of this race early. (8) ELLIS PARK is in top form but will need to work out a trip from a post that is likely less than ideal for him. (9) STATE TREASURER is the other legit Preferred horse in here and he will likely pepper the early pace. (5) JINS SHARK was really racing well before he got sick and he qualified well for his return. This isn't the easiest spot to return in, but he could crash the exotics at a price.

Race 10

(3) TRACEUR HANOVER had a decent return race now drops to face much easier here. He should get the job done vs. these. (5) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE went a big trip last week in defeat and should be a main player in here despite the class rise. (4) MR CARROTTS broke while on the move last time when dropped to this class. He should be a factor here if he stays flat. (1) JENKINS CREEK never gets bet at this level but can make the Super ticket at a price.

Race 11

(9) OUR JERRY LEE N ships in and faces easier here. I would think he will get put into this race early. (4) LEAFS AND WINGS raced well at this level last week and he should be closer early moving inside; using. (3) ST LADS LOTTO should be dangerous here and is another that should get put into action earlier than he was last week. (5) VEGAS ROCKS drops and gets back to a 7-day cycle. Expect improvement this time. (5) THORN IN YOUR SIDE has been taking small shares lately and could do the same here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 8/13 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF

MEET STATS: 264 - 785 / $1431.70

BEST BETS: 36 - 65 / $123.40

Best Bet: CASIMIR JITTERBUG (1st)

Spot Play: TEXAS TERROR N (5th)


Race 1

(6) CASIMIR JITTERBUG has been solid in his last two local efforts versus better without a legitimate chance of winning; veteran can handle these. (1) TYLER gave way late after setting an aggressive pace last out. (5) FREESPIN is a decent fit at this level for Bamond; Bartlett is back driving.

Race 2

(5) FIERY LUSTRE N was a big off-the-pace winner three back and faces no standouts here. (4) GRATIAN HANOVER gets some post relief and should be a player for Bongoirno. (1) SOHO LENNON A showed some forward progress last week for the first time in quite a while.

Race 3

(2) ROYAL HEART went a long, tough trip last week and hung around gamely; Godinez trainee gets needed post relief tonight. (1) SOMETIMES SAID also moves all the way inside and drops a notch in class; player. (6) MIDNIGHT DYLAN N faces tougher but is razor-sharp.

Race 4

(2) MAH SISH N finally gets an inside post and the veteran shouldn't let the opportunity pass. (1) JUMBO JET N is tested for class but he draws best and the Vallee stock has been good recently. (3) LUCKY MCTRUCKY is another with post relief and he'll be close up throughout.

Race 5

(5) TEXAS TERROR N has been overdue for some time and he faces a field here with no standouts. (3) SNAP TO IT A has been close in his last few but probably should have won some of those races. (1) J T will land a share from this spot but is tough to endorse on top.

Race 6

(1) TAKE IT BACK TERRY has been racing well lately but probably should have been closer last week; from this spot he should control the action. (2) LYONSSOMEWHERE qualified very nicely in preparation for his 2016 debut and he draws well. (3) FEEL THE NEED A was left alone on the front end and won easily in his U.S. debut but he'll have to go faster tonight.

Race 7

(2) LADY'S DUDE faltered badly on the front end last week after a super effort the start prior; I'll give him a chance to rebound at a much-improved price. (7) MELADY'S MONET is back locally after winning in the Vincennes on Hambo day at The Meadowlands; obvious contender. (5) E R ELLIE races well week in and week out.

Race 8

(7) BIT OF A LEGEND N is back locally after a brave try last week at The Meadowlands; obviously the post is tough but the Levy champ is more than capable of overcoming the handicap. (1) MCERLEAN lands the best post off a no-chance effort last week; his race two weeks ago was awesome. (5) THE REAL ONE is back in top form and cannot be ignored.

Race 9

(3) POLAK A took the money last week at The Big M but faltered on the front end; his last two local races were decent. (1) IN THE ARSENAL is still winless on the season but he's been much more aggressive recently. (4) GHOST PINE is back at Yonkers off a win out of town and he can land a share with these.

Race 10

(4) HILLBILLY HANOVER has raced well in all recent without a win to show for it; veteran will get lucky eventually. (6) IDEALBEACH HANOVER is hampered by the outside post but the Allard trainee has live moves; consider at a price. (5) JENERAL PATTON fits with these and has had a very nice season.

Race 11

(3) RED HOT HERBIE hasn't been passing horses recently but he's clearly more than capable from this spot. (7) MONEY MAVEN gets some class relief along with the top choice and Andy Miller needs to get aggressive from this spot. (2) SKATES N PLATES has been very game on the front end in his last three versus lesser.

Race 12

(3) ALWAYS AT MY PLACE was very good last out going coast-to-coast and he can double up remaining at the same level. (2) SCOTT ROCKS has good speed and a much-improved post. (1) OH JOHNY B GOOD N raced very willingly in his U.S. debut.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Arlington (1st) Read to Me, 9-2
(5th) Cotege, 5-1


Belterra Park (5th) I'm in a Hurry, 9-2
(8th) Penny's Court, 3-1


Canterbury (4th) Bluffs Edge, 4-1
(7th) Adorkable, 7-2


Charles Town (2nd) Right On the Money, 7-2
(3rd) Preston's Boy, 7-2


Del Mar (1st) Country Lineman, 3-1
(9th) Mysterious Miracle, 9-2


Ellis Park (3rd) Taquito, 9-2
(7th) Jet Away Sue, 7-2


Emerald Downs (6th) Xerxes, 3-1
(7th) Victor Victorian, 5-1


Evangeline Downs (1st) Salt and Pepper, 3-1
(4th) Closing Way, 5-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Sweet Story, 4-1
(4th) Invidia, 4-1


Laurel (5th) Two Punch Too, 9-2
(9th) Crookit, 6-1


Louisiana Downs (1st) Mi Padre, 5-1
(3rd) Lucky Cal, 6-1


Monmouth Park (3rd) Vinceremos, 7-2
(10th) My Aunt Lilly, 3-1


Mountaineer (1st) Tracy's Star, 10-1
(7th) Balada, 4-1


Penn National (1st) Fuego Mi Amor, 9-2
(4th) Torcida, 6-1


Prairie Meadows (6th) Basic Chance, 7-2
(11th) It's the Swede, 8-1


Remington Park (3rd) Bix, 7-2
(7th) Sophisticatedbling, 6-1


Santa Rosa (4th) Bernier, 3-1
(10th) Taparri, 9-2


Saratoga (7th) Lady Constance, 8-1
(11th) Peculiar Sensation. 4-1


Thistledown (3rd) Wil Likes Lucky, 6-1
(4th) Don't Darlyn Me, 4-1


Woodbine (5th) War Executive, 9-2
(9th) Our Victor, 6-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

August Pitchers Report
By Marc Lawrence

With the MLB trading deadline officially closed, and the NFL preseason whetting our pigskin palates, the month of August sets the table for the stretch run of the baseball season. Which pitchers can we count on to satisfy our tastes, and which ones figure to sour our stomachs?

Take a look below.

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a two-to-one or better success ratio in team-starts over the course of the last three seasons during the month of August.

On the flip side, we've also listed pitchers that struggle in August, winning 33% percent or less of their team-start efforts.

To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each April over the last three years. And for your convenience alongside each record we break down each pitcher’s greatest success or greatest failure rate either home (H) or away (A) within his good or bad month.

Note: * designates a categorical repeat appearance by this pitcher, maintaining status quo from last season’s August list.

I’ll be back next month with September’s Good Month Pitchers.

Until then, as legendary singer and songwriter Neil Diamond would say, enjoy the hot August nights.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Arrieta, Jake - 10-5 (6-3 A)

After being Clayton Kershaw-like for nearly 12 months, the Cubs starter has "regressed" back to just being among the best starters in baseball. Arrieta has a nearly 3-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio and only allows a base hit 70 percent of the time in innings pitched this season, among the finest in the majors.

Duffy, Danny - 11-4 (6-1 H)

After starting the season as a reliever, the Kansas City left-hander was forced back into the rotation based on need and he has responded. Since June, after a pair of starts, Duffy has put up an ERA of just over 3.00 and opposing batters have just a .289 on-base percentage against him.

*Gallardo, Yovani - 9-4 (5-2 A)

Not close to the same pitcher he used to be with Milwaukee, with ERA so far this season approaching almost two runs higher than career average (5.37 vs. 3.73). The lost velocity is to blame and secondary pitches have less bite. For Baltimore to win AL East, Gallardo has to find some of his old magic.

Greinke, Zack - 10-5 (5-2 H)

After being on the shelf with oblique injury since late June, Greinke is close to returning for Arizona if no reoccurrence were to take place after a rehab start or two this month. After pathetic start to season, the D-Backs prized starter has cut ERA by 2 1/2 runs and is close to career norms in all major categories. Elite starter.

*Hamels, Cole - 12-6 (8-4 H)

Having typical Hamels season, with low numbers across the board. In bigger picture, underrated high level hurler who has not been getting acclaim after Phillies fall, but has been ace with Texas. As usual, left-handed batters have no chance with .176 batting average and .287 slugging percentage.

*Iwakuma, Hisashi - 12-5 (7-1 A)

Not having normal season for Seattle, with hits allowed much higher than usual for Iwakuma. However, has won four of five starts and the Mariners are 10-3 when the righty has toed the rubber since May 20. With Felix Hernandez back, this pair could lead Seattle charge to postseason.

Milone, Tom - 7-3 (4-1 A)

Milone starts for bad Minnesota club and is inconsistent as ever. Of his 74 hits allowed in only 59 2/3 innings, 11 have gone the yard. Maybe he can keep the ball down and spot his pitches better like previous August’s.

*Sanchez, Anibal - 9-3 (5-1 H)

With decreased velocity and no action on breaking pitches, Sanchez ERA has been six or higher almost all season. Not sure if he can respond this month, with opponents having BA over .300 and owning a WHIP of 1.64.

*Strasburg, Stephen - 13-3 (8-1 H)

Only July 21st, Strasburg suffered first loss of entire season after 13 consecutive wins. Though the fastball is no longer in upper 90's all the time, the breaking pitches disappear from batter's view and he's been exceptional. If Strasburg has true to form month, he will have real shot at 20 wins in 2016.

Teheran, Julio - 11-5 (7-2 H)

Suffered lat strain in late July and has been a victim of no run support from bad Braves club with 2.81 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and opposing batters at only .205 batting average. Note: Teheran’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of August.

Weaver, Jered - 12-5 (7-3 A)

Shell of his former self at 33. Never a hard thrower, Weaver's fastball only occasionally makes the upper 80's these days and his once dominating changeup is a pitch batter's wait on now with lack of variance of speed of pitches. Will blend good and really awful performances these days.

*Zimmermann, Jordan - 12-6 (8-3 H)

On July 24th had excellent rehab start and will be rejoining Detroit this month. After sensational start with Tigers, Zimmermann was tagged for at least five runs in four of his last five outings. Detroit needs the Zimmermann they had early in the season to have chance to catch Cleveland in AL Central.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Gray, Sonny - 5-11 (0-7 A)

Given Gray's troubles this month, his woes of all season are very likely to continue. Gray simply has been more hittable the entire season, permitting those with bats to hit almost 50 points higher than normal batting average permitted of .233. Note: Gray’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of August.

*Hellickson, Jeremy - 4-11 (2-9 A)

Back of the rotation starter, Hellickson has largely performed better than expected for Philadelphia and as this article went live, he was rumored to be traded. His KW ratio is significantly higher at 4 to 1 compared to 3 to 1 for his career. Will he be able to maintain the rest of season?

Kazmir, Scott - 5-11 (1-7 A)

The Dodgers port-sider has 9-4 record, but his 4.41 ERA is still above career average of 3.98. Durability has been issue all season, with too many starts around five innings for what is supposed to be Los Angeles No. 2 or 3 starter.

Koehler, Tom - 4-13 (0-10 A)

Above average arm but always up or down and unless he pulls a Rich Hill, at 30 is not likely to change. An 8-8 record, 4.18 ERA and WHIP of 1.46, is about what we have come to expect from Mr. Koehler. Note: Koehler’s record also represents his MLB career team start mark during the month of August.

*Miley, Wade - 5-11 (1-6 A)

Overrated lefty who does not miss many bats and fails to come anywhere close to averaging punch-out an inning. Strictly an innings-eater and provides nothing more than 50-50 chance to win.

Miller, Shelby - 5-11 (2-8 H)

Demoted to Triple-A in July after disastrous campaign. Miller hopes to regain confidence and repair mechanics that are really out of whack and return to Arizona yet this season.

Samardzija, Jeff - 5-13 (3-8 H)

After appearing as the No.3 starter San Francisco wanted for two months, Smards has returned to same old serviceable pitcher of the past and seen his ERA climb from 2.84 to present 4.30 heading into this month.