Coach Fletcher’s Saturday Free Pick
Saturday, August 1
4:05 pm Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies
The Pick Philadelphia Phillies
What? Betting the Phils? Am I Crazy?
I won’t deny the fact that I must be crazy to bet the Phils. I have been told my entire gambling life that you never ask a bad team to do something good for you. Yet here I am taking the Phillies.
What’s Going on With The Phils ?
Yes, they are still a bad, bad team. But something has happened. Philadelphia has won 7 of their last 8 contests. Philadelphia has won 10 of their last 12 games. They’ve handled Toronto, Chicago Cubs, Tampa Bay and the Miami Marlins in that streak. They’ve beat Atlanta 2 straight in the current series. Something has happened!
How Bad is Atlanta
Well, Atlanta must be pretty bad if they are a dog to the Phils, visitors or not. The Braves have lost 5 straight. The Braves have lost 10 of their last 13. They’ve scored 25 runs in their last 13 games, less than 2 runs per game. By contrast, the Phils have scored 60 runs in their last 12 games.
The Pitchers
Two youngsters take the mound today. Matt Wisler goes to the hill for the Braves and the Philly Fanatic’s favorite son, Aaron Nola, takes the bump for the Phils. In case you didn’t know it, Philly fans have been waiting with baited breath for Nola to begin his major league career. They hope he will be a savior along the lines of Steve Carlton. And they may be right.
Nola (22 yrs old) Wisler (22 yrs old)
· 1-1, 3.29 era, 0.95 whip 5-1, 3.42 era, 1.33 whip
· 0-1, 1.50 era, 1.00 whip home 2-1, 4.37 era, 1.588 whip on road
· 1-1, 3.29 era, 0.951 whip last 3 2-0, 3.79 era, 1.421 whip last 3
· 4:1 K/BB ratio 2:1 K/BB ratio
· Minors – 14-7, 2.57 era 28-19, 3.53 era
I think any team would love to have these toddlers starting for them. It is hard to separate them. But even if we call them even-steven, the Phils are still my play. I think the home field will be a big advantage for Nola. And the Philly fans must be going nuts!
The Bullpens
Big edge for Phils here.
Philly 2.93 era at home Braves 4.68 era on road
The Offenses
Not much needs to be said here to be honest. The Braves have been averaging less than 2 runs per game for the last 2 weeks. The Phillies have been averaging about 5 runs per game in the same span.
The Phils are on an epic streak for them for 2015. The Braves have not been able to hit the ball all year.
Phils Braves
· Home – 3.7 runs per game Road – 3.5 runs per game
· Past 7 games – 5 runs per game Past 7 games – 1.4 runs per game
· Vs RHP – 3.6 runs per game Vs RHP – 3.9 runs per game
· Grass – 3.6 runs per game Grass – 3.6 runs per game
· Night – 3.5 runs per game Night – 3.7 runs per game
Coach’s Conclusion:
With 2 bad teams heading in opposite directions, I’ll focus on the most recent data to make a selection. If it’s the Dodgers vs the Giants it pays to look at the body of work over the course of the season. But obviously this Philly team is nothing like the team that stumbled and bumbled their way through the first half of the season. In July Atlanta was 10-16. The Phils were 13-12. That’s what I want to know when 2 teams like this are meeting. Also, at home the Phillies are 25-26. On the road the Braves are 20-37. That’s a sizeable discrepancy. Here’s another interesting number:
Phillies - 6-2 in second half when playing a team with a losing record
Braves - 2-9 in second half when playing a team with a losing record
I’m taking the Phillies here. And evidently I’m not alone. The line opened Philly -107.
The Pick Phillies -115