Dave Cokin
Saturday Bonus Play 9:05 PM MLB
(925) DETROIT TIGERS at (926) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Take: (926) LOS ANGELES ANGELS -113
What a difference a few months can make. If someone had told me in April that I could get underdog on Justin Verlander opposing Matt Shoemaker, I’d have been racing to my screen to start blasting away with every out available. Perennial ace against fringe big leaguer at plus money? Sign me up!
Now here it is late July and I’m looking at Shoemaker being a small favorite and thinking that the line is actually a little bit short of where it rightfully should be.
Verlander is clearly not the same pitcher we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the past several years. I can’t determine whether this is still part of an ongoing recovery from his off-season surgery or simply a diminishment of skills. But that really doesn’t matter. The fact is that Verlander has been nothing more than ordinary this season, and there’s nothing I can see to suggest a surge is imminent.
As for Shoemaker, he continues to be a revelation of sorts. There was simply nothing in his minor league resume to suggest he could thrive in the show, much less while owning a spectacular 1.9/9.3 BB/K ratio. But those are the numbers, and if you’ve watched this guy throw, you already know why he’s getting all those swings and misses. Shoemaker evidently discovered the splitter at some point, and that pitch has taken him from organizational filler to, if not a mainstay, a valuable piece in the Angels starting rotation.
I think the oddsmakers have finally adjusted to where Verlander is at this juncture, and there are no more bargains available for those fading him on a regular basis. But I still believe this price is a tad short. That’s more on the team data, however. The Halos are dominating their guests when playing in Anaheim and while the Tigers are a tough adversary with the best road record in baseball, the Angels are currently owners of the second best home record in the game and they’re getting better.
There’s a good chance we won’t see Josh Hamilton in the Angels lineup tonight, as he had to leave Friday’s game with an injury (a real shocker there, huh?) but I don’t consider his absence especially critical, as he hasn’t been productive lately anyway. I like the Soria pickup for the beleaguered Detroit pen, but still give the late inning advantage to the home team if this is tight. The lean here is definitely to the Angels to make it two straight over the Tigers.