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Horse Racing

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

Friday did not go well at all, a frustrating afternoon until the last race and even in the finale we had to wait out an inquiry.

My top pick Fresh Feline was hammered down from 12-1 on the morning line to 4-1 and was involved in a three-way photo she somehow managed to win. My third choice Jolene lost a photo for second but was placed second via disqualification of Angel Choir, who drifted out just before the wire.

The exacta returned a decent $54.00, and I was lucky enough to play a trifecta with “all” in the third spot, so I backed into a very lucky $456.60 trifecta that ended my personal bankroll bloodbath.

It is on to Saturday and we have a good card at Saratoga that includes the $200,000 Amsterdam (G2) and the $600,000 Jim Dandy (G1).

Captain Serious raced against the track bias last out and I am going to give him a good look in the Amsterdam and his 4-1 morning line looks more than fair. The Todd Pletcher trained Rock Fall is the 9-5 morning line favorite and is very quick, but gets a class test.

The Jim Dandy drew seven but Cousin Stephen ran in yesterday’s Curlin, so six will go to the post led by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist. The Christophe Clement trainee is the 8-5 morning line favorite and looks as if he is going to be really tough.

Wicked Strong is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line and was fourth in the Belmont, beaten 1 ¾ lengths for the top spot. I am going to give Kid Cruz (8-1) a look. The Linda Rice trainee has won four of his last five starts and he looked sharp winning the Dwyer (G3) last out. He will be shorter than his 8-1 morning line but may still end up the value of the race.

My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Del Mar and Saratoga including all of the stakes action.


Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:

SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
5 Rapid Repair 2-1
8 Smart Ashley 9-2
6 Engaginglee 5-2
1 Magnolia Lane 6-1

Analysis: Rapid Repair was scratched out of a one-mile race yesterday where she as my fourth choice and this looks like an easier spot and she is bred to handle the longer distance in this spot. Last out she tracked thee early pace, took over the lead and finished gamely for the runner up spot going a mile on the main track. Two back she ran a game second, setting the early fractions and unable to hold off the winner late. The winner was Simple Spectacular, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next start on June 26. She is out of a Kingmambo mare and should be able to handle turf. She is a half to grade stakes winner Kitten's Point ($278,715).

Smart Ashley is back on turf after a good effort in a runner up finish as the beaten favorite going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. This filly has landed in the money in six of seven starts on turf without picking up her diploma. She did run into repeat winners two and three back. She is out of the stakes winner Awesome Ashley ($303,260). She fits with her best but could land for a minor share again today.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:

SAR Race 8 The Amsterdam G2 (4:57 ET)
8 Captain Serious 4-1
2 Rock Fall 9-5
4 Coup de Grace 3-1
7 Noble Moon 8-1

Analysis: Captain Serious stepped outside of the state bred ranks last out in the Dwyer (G3) and put in a game effort. The gelding set the early fractions and was run down late by Kid Cruz in deep stretch. He caught a racing strip that day that was not kind to speed. He cuts back to a sprint and he won the seven-furlong Mike Lee two back in gate to wire fashion after winning his first two career starts sitting off the pace. The Mike Hushion barn is 18% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. He looks like a serious player in here.

Rock Fall faces stakes company for the first time here after a good-looking win last out against Alw-1 foes going six furlongs at Belmont Park. The son of Speightstown earned a 103 Beyer two back in his maiden score in his second career outing. Note than work on July 13 was working in company with Palace Malice and he stuck right with the Grade 1 winner. The colt looks as if he still has some upside, although his price may end up on the light side in this spot.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,7,8 / 2,4,5,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:

DMR Race 8 The San Diego Hcp G2 (5:30 PT)
3 Frac Daddy 5-1
2 Imperative 7-2
8 Summer Hit 8-1
11 Fed Biz 5-1

Analysis: Frac Daddy set the early fractions, had a clear lead heading for home and was run down trying to get 1 1/4 miles in the Dominion Day (G3) at Woodbine as the big chalk. It was his first loss on the fake stuff in four trips. He won the Eclipse (G2) two back on poly at Woodbine easily and won the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland back in April. He seems to do his best work tracking the pace and Talamo likely will sit off the pace here. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here.

Imperative made a mild late run to finish third last out on the main track at Santa Anita in the Gold Cup (G1). He earned a career top on the tight turns winning the Charles Town Classic (G2) over Game On Dude. He has a pair of wins over the fake stuff, both coming at Golden Gate Fields on Tapeta. The barn claimed this guy for $50,000back in December and have won over $1 million with the gelding since then.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,8,11
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,8,11 / 2,3,8,9,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Saratoga
R3: #1 Thirtysilverpieces 12-1
R5: #8 Forever Thing 10-1
R6: #5 Razzle Jazil 12-1
R6: #11 Cozy Kitten 8-1
R8: #7 Noble Moon 8-1
R9: #7 Caribean Beat 10-1
R9: #5 Distorted Beauty 10-1
R10: #5 Kid Cruz 8-1
R10: #2 Legend 12-1
R11: #12 Trainingforsuccess 10-1

Good luck today!
 
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Preview: Tigers (56-43) at Angels (60-41)

Game: 3
Venue: Angel Stadium of Anaheim
Date: July 26, 2014 9:05 PM EDT


Justin Verlander is feeling optimistic about rediscovering his All-Star form after making an adjustment to his throwing motion.

That could become a little easier should Josh Hamilton have to sit for the Los Angeles Angels.

With Hamilton's status uncertain, Verlander will try to help the AL Central-leading Detroit Tigers bounce back with their fifth win in seven games Saturday night in the third of a four-game set in Anaheim.

After allowing nine runs over 12 1-3 innings in his previous two starts, Verlander (9-8, 4.84 ERA) said he changed his arm action as he prepared to open the second half of the season against Arizona on Monday.

It seemed to help as the 2011 AL Cy Young award winner allowed three runs over 6 2-3 innings in a 4-3 victory over the Diamondbacks. It was only the second time in four July starts that he gave up fewer than four runs.

"(I) went out and tried to throw the way that I used to throw, and immediately, when I got on the mound to throw my bullpen to warm up, I was able to locate the way that I felt that I should," Verlander told MLB's official website. "I felt pretty easy, and that carried over into the game."

The six-time All-Star hopes to keep making positive strides while helping the Tigers (57-43) avoid their eighth loss in nine games at Angel Stadium following Friday's 2-1 defeat.

Verlander has gone 2-2 with a 6.75 ERA in five career starts in Anaheim, though he hasn't faced the Angels since 2012. Albert Pujols is 5 for 8 with two doubles in the matchup, while Mike Trout's only hit in three at_bats was a home run.

Hamilton has gone 5 for 17 with seven strikeouts versus Verlander, though he may be sidelined after leaving the opener in the fourth inning with left knee soreness. The former AL MVP is batting .326 in his last 11 games.

Efren Navarro could be back in left field after going 2 for 3 with the go-ahead RBI single in the sixth inning.

Los Angeles (61-41), which won for only the third time in seven games, has totaled 13 runs while hitting .210 over its last five. The Angels, however, pulled within two games of AL West-leading Oakland on Friday with the A's loss at Texas.

Now they'll try to keep closing the gap with right-hander Matt Shoemaker (7-3, 4.54) on the mound.

Shoemaker allowed four runs with a season high-tying 10 strikeouts over 5 2-3 innings in Monday's 4-2 home loss to Baltimore. He gave up home runs in the first and sixth innings, but retired 15 straight in between in his first start since July 3.

'I thought he threw the ball extremely well,' manager Mike Scioscia said. 'For not having pitched in 14 days, to be able to get to that point in the game was great.'

Shoemaker is 3-1 with a 3.31 ERA in six home starts as he faces the Tigers for the first time. Detroit had averaged 6.0 runs and hit .320 with runners in scoring position over its previous five games before finishing with six hits Friday.

Slugger Miguel Cabrera had one of the few highlights with his 16th home run. The All-Star first baseman has gone 9 for 21 with two homers and six RBIs in five games on the road trip.
 
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CFL
Long Sheet


Week 5

Saturday, July 26

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OTTAWA (1 - 2) at HAMILTON (0 - 3) - 7/26/2014, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OTTAWA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road games since 1996.
OTTAWA is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in road lined games since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (1 - 3) at SASKATCHEWAN (1 - 2) - 7/26/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SASKATCHEWAN is 49-27 ATS (+19.3 Units) in July games since 1996.
SASKATCHEWAN is 101-67 ATS (+27.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponent since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 3-2 against the spread versus SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 3-2 straight up against SASKATCHEWAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, July 26


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LOS ANGELES (10 - 14) at SEATTLE (9 - 17) - 7/26/2014, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOS ANGELES is 24-37 ATS (-16.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LOS ANGELES is 12-26 ATS (-16.6 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 102-71 ATS (+23.9 Units) in home games vs. division opponents since 1997.
SEATTLE is 46-28 ATS (+15.2 Units) in home games after a non-conference game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1997.
SEATTLE is 92-62 ATS (+23.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game since 1997.
SEATTLE is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) after allowing 75 points or more this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 8-4 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 10-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
9 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (11 - 13) at SAN ANTONIO (12 - 13) - 7/26/2014, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 102-137 ATS (-48.7 Units) as an underdog since 1997.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) against Eastern conference opponents this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games after scoring 75 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW YORK (10 - 13) at PHOENIX (20 - 3) - 7/26/2014, 10:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHOENIX is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games this season.
PHOENIX is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite this season.
PHOENIX is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games this season.
PHOENIX is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in a home game where where the total is greater than or equal to 150 this season.
PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in July games this season.
PHOENIX is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in May, June, or July games this season.
PHOENIX is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) after a division game this season.
PHOENIX is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) after scoring 75 points or more this season.
PHOENIX is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15+ games after 15+ games this season.
NEW YORK is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in road games against Western conference opponents since 1997.
NEW YORK is 70-47 ATS (+18.3 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1997.
PHOENIX is 17-30 ATS (-16.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 4-0 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 2-2 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 
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CFL

Week 5


Trend Report

Saturday, July 26

7:00 PM
OTTAWA vs. HAMILTON
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Ottawa's last 6 games when playing Hamilton
Ottawa is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Hamilton
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Hamilton's last 12 games
Hamilton is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

10:00 PM
TORONTO vs. SASKATCHEWAN
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games when playing Saskatchewan
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Saskatchewan is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Saskatchewan's last 13 games
 
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WNBA

Saturday, July 26


Trend Report

4:00 PM
LOS ANGELES vs. SEATTLE
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Los Angeles is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Los Angeles
Seattle is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing at home against Los Angeles

8:00 PM
INDIANA vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indiana's last 20 games on the road
Indiana is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Antonio's last 5 games
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

10:00 PM
NEW YORK vs. PHOENIX
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games
New York is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Phoenix is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against New York
Phoenix is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New York
 
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MLB

Saturday, July 26


Trend Report

1:05 PM
TORONTO vs. NY YANKEES
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games
Toronto is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Toronto
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games at home

4:05 PM
WASHINGTON vs. CINCINNATI
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Washington's last 12 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Chi Cubs's last 11 games

4:10 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SEATTLE
Baltimore is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Seattle is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Baltimore

7:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Arizona is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games
Philadelphia is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

7:10 PM
CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 7 games

7:10 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of San Diego's last 15 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of San Diego's last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Atlanta's last 8 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta's last 15 games when playing San Diego

7:10 PM
NY METS vs. MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of NY Mets's last 10 games when playing Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Mets's last 7 games
Milwaukee is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing NY Mets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee's last 5 games

7:10 PM
BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston
Tampa Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:10 PM
MIAMI vs. HOUSTON
Miami is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games
Houston is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Houston is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
Chi White Sox are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi White Sox
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

8:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing on the road against Texas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games
Texas is 4-19 SU in its last 23 games

8:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. COLORADO
Pittsburgh is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Pittsburgh is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Colorado is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh

9:05 PM
DETROIT vs. LA ANGELS
Detroit is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Detroit is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
LA Angels are 11-3 SU in their last 14 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 6 games when playing Detroit

9:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
LA Dodgers are 1-3-1 SU in their last 5 games ,when playing San Francisco
LA Dodgers are 2-4-1 SU in their last 7 games ,
San Francisco4-1-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
San Francisco6-2-1 SU in its last 9 games
 

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