Horse Racing
At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey
Friday did not go well at all, a frustrating afternoon until the last race and even in the finale we had to wait out an inquiry.
My top pick Fresh Feline was hammered down from 12-1 on the morning line to 4-1 and was involved in a three-way photo she somehow managed to win. My third choice Jolene lost a photo for second but was placed second via disqualification of Angel Choir, who drifted out just before the wire.
The exacta returned a decent $54.00, and I was lucky enough to play a trifecta with “all” in the third spot, so I backed into a very lucky $456.60 trifecta that ended my personal bankroll bloodbath.
It is on to Saturday and we have a good card at Saratoga that includes the $200,000 Amsterdam (G2) and the $600,000 Jim Dandy (G1).
Captain Serious raced against the track bias last out and I am going to give him a good look in the Amsterdam and his 4-1 morning line looks more than fair. The Todd Pletcher trained Rock Fall is the 9-5 morning line favorite and is very quick, but gets a class test.
The Jim Dandy drew seven but Cousin Stephen ran in yesterday’s Curlin, so six will go to the post led by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tonalist. The Christophe Clement trainee is the 8-5 morning line favorite and looks as if he is going to be really tough.
Wicked Strong is the 2-1 second choice on the morning line and was fourth in the Belmont, beaten 1 ¾ lengths for the top spot. I am going to give Kid Cruz (8-1) a look. The Linda Rice trainee has won four of his last five starts and he looked sharp winning the Dwyer (G3) last out. He will be shorter than his 8-1 morning line but may still end up the value of the race.
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my nine strongest plays from Del Mar and Saratoga including all of the stakes action.
Here is today’s opening race from Saratoga to get the day off to a good start:
SAR Race 1 Md Sp Wt (1:00 ET)
5 Rapid Repair 2-1
8 Smart Ashley 9-2
6 Engaginglee 5-2
1 Magnolia Lane 6-1
Analysis: Rapid Repair was scratched out of a one-mile race yesterday where she as my fourth choice and this looks like an easier spot and she is bred to handle the longer distance in this spot. Last out she tracked thee early pace, took over the lead and finished gamely for the runner up spot going a mile on the main track. Two back she ran a game second, setting the early fractions and unable to hold off the winner late. The winner was Simple Spectacular, who came back to beat Alw-1 foes in her next start on June 26. She is out of a Kingmambo mare and should be able to handle turf. She is a half to grade stakes winner Kitten's Point ($278,715).
Smart Ashley is back on turf after a good effort in a runner up finish as the beaten favorite going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs. This filly has landed in the money in six of seven starts on turf without picking up her diploma. She did run into repeat winners two and three back. She is out of the stakes winner Awesome Ashley ($303,260). She fits with her best but could land for a minor share again today.
Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8
TRI: 5,8 / 1,5,6,8 / 1,2,5,6,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 8 The Amsterdam G2 (4:57 ET)
8 Captain Serious 4-1
2 Rock Fall 9-5
4 Coup de Grace 3-1
7 Noble Moon 8-1
Analysis: Captain Serious stepped outside of the state bred ranks last out in the Dwyer (G3) and put in a game effort. The gelding set the early fractions and was run down late by Kid Cruz in deep stretch. He caught a racing strip that day that was not kind to speed. He cuts back to a sprint and he won the seven-furlong Mike Lee two back in gate to wire fashion after winning his first two career starts sitting off the pace. The Mike Hushion barn is 18% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from route to sprint. He looks like a serious player in here.
Rock Fall faces stakes company for the first time here after a good-looking win last out against Alw-1 foes going six furlongs at Belmont Park. The son of Speightstown earned a 103 Beyer two back in his maiden score in his second career outing. Note than work on July 13 was working in company with Palace Malice and he stuck right with the Grade 1 winner. The colt looks as if he still has some upside, although his price may end up on the light side in this spot.
Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,4,7,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,4,7,8 / 2,4,5,7,8
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Del Mar:
DMR Race 8 The San Diego Hcp G2 (5:30 PT)
3 Frac Daddy 5-1
2 Imperative 7-2
8 Summer Hit 8-1
11 Fed Biz 5-1
Analysis: Frac Daddy set the early fractions, had a clear lead heading for home and was run down trying to get 1 1/4 miles in the Dominion Day (G3) at Woodbine as the big chalk. It was his first loss on the fake stuff in four trips. He won the Eclipse (G2) two back on poly at Woodbine easily and won the Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland back in April. He seems to do his best work tracking the pace and Talamo likely will sit off the pace here. He figures to bounce back with a better effort here.
Imperative made a mild late run to finish third last out on the main track at Santa Anita in the Gold Cup (G1). He earned a career top on the tight turns winning the Charles Town Classic (G2) over Game On Dude. He has a pair of wins over the fake stuff, both coming at Golden Gate Fields on Tapeta. The barn claimed this guy for $50,000back in December and have won over $1 million with the gelding since then.
Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,8,11
TRI: 2,3 / 2,3,8,11 / 2,3,8,9,11
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Saratoga
R3: #1 Thirtysilverpieces 12-1
R5: #8 Forever Thing 10-1
R6: #5 Razzle Jazil 12-1
R6: #11 Cozy Kitten 8-1
R8: #7 Noble Moon 8-1
R9: #7 Caribean Beat 10-1
R9: #5 Distorted Beauty 10-1
R10: #5 Kid Cruz 8-1
R10: #2 Legend 12-1
R11: #12 Trainingforsuccess 10-1
Good luck today!