SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA +106 over N.Y. Mets
First game of a double-header features Robert Gsellman against a rookie southpaw named Sean Newcomb. Gsellman is a work in progress that is worth watching. A strong groundball profile is a good place to start but his WHIP of 1.54 reveals the risk in backing him. Gsellman still needs strand % luck working in his favor because there is too much traffic. His 19/44/ BB/K split in 57 innings is workable but that high WHIP and oppBA is not. Some minor tweaks and Gsellman’s stock will rise but for this one game, we’ll take our chances with Atlanta’s rookie.
Sean Newcomb was Atlanta's #6 prospect entering the 2017 season. Keep in mind that Atlanta's system is one of the deepest in baseball so his rating likely would be higher in many, if not most, MLB systems. So far in 2017, Newcomb has been toiling for Triple-A Gwinnett where he has a 2.97 ERA with 74 strikeouts in 57.2 innings. The elephant in the room, as it has been for most of his professional career, is his control. In those 57.2 innings, he has walked 33 batters and for his entire minor league career, he was walked 186 batters over 348 frames. That’s too many. This kid with electric stuff cannot throw the ball over the plate with consistency. Last year, Newcomb emerged as a bona fide Top-50 prospect as a member of the Angels organization. Part of the Andrelton Simmons trade last off-season, Newcomb found a new home with Atlanta. Pitching for Double-A Mississippi, the young left-hander has been dominant at times. When Newcomb's fastball is on, it is unhittable. Throw in a deadly 12-6 curveball and opposing hitters stand no chance. That is at least until Newcomb gives them a chance by losing the strike zone and that’s the risk here. If he’s throwing strikes, Newcomb and the Braves are a great bet because he’ll be able to dominate most lineups, even one’s at this level. If he can stay around the strike zone, Sean Newcomb has the stuff to be an All-Star and even though it’s a gamble, he’s worth it as a home dog.
SEATTLE +106 over Toronto
Marcus Stroman has good year-to-date numbers, but his skills have tailed off recently. Stroman hasn't thrown a pure quality start since April. He has handled left-handed hitters consistently all year though and that skill could help him today against the middle of the Seattle lineup. Still, the Mariners' offensive rating is sky high at the moment and so is their form so this is a challenging matchup for Stroman. While his skills have been good, his swinging strike rate has reverted to its pre-'16 norms (9.1% swing and miss rate) and he's not attacking the strike zone very well (56% first-pitch strike rate, 35% ball %). In spite of his extreme groundball profile, Stroman's chances of a breakout won't be great until he can miss more bats and also get batters to swing at stuff outside the zone.
Ariel Miranda is 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA after a dozen starts. He has a BB/K split of 24/61 over 67 frames but his solid 65% first-pitch strike rate suggests better control is forthcoming. This is a talented young pitcher that is gaining more confidence with each passing start. His WHIP is declining and is now down from 1.29 over his first six starts to 1.17 after 12 starts. Miranda has a BB/K split of 13/31 over his last 31 innings with an elite 16% swing and miss rate. After missing all of the 2014 season because of his defection from Cuba and spending 2015 in the minors, Ariel Miranda finally made his major league debut in July of 2016, finishing with a 3.88 ERA over 58 innings. A month short of one-year later and this kid is showing positive signs across the board including the intangible ones like confidence, maturity and poise. Indeed they’ll be some growing pains along the way but he has the talent and as a dog at home, Miranda and the Mariners offer up great value.
Miami -1½ +144 over PITTSBURGH
Fading the Pirates is rarely a bad idea and with the Marlins being one of the hottest teams in the game, we’ll come right back on them here against Trevor Williams. Williams is a rookie that has now appeared in 12 games with the last six coming as a starter. Williams has been knocked around in the majors (career 5.88 ERA), but a little over a run's worth of that can be attributed to bad luck on strand % and hr/f. His higher K-rate in the majors has led to more acceptable command but most of that growth has come as a reliever. He has 8.9 K’s/9 in 20 innings out of the bullpen but only a 5 K’s/9 over six starts. Just about everything in the 25-year-old Williams's skill history screams "average pitcher." His 4.72 xERA so far in the majors suggests he barely has enough to stick around and he’ll likely bounce back and forth between relieving and starting. Williams will almost certainly get booted out of the rotation once Jameson Taillon is ready to return so he’ll feeling a bit of heat today as well. He’ll now face a red-hot offense.
Miami scored 12 times last night. They have now won 10 of its past 13 games and will send their best pitcher to the hill here. Dan Straily is dealing it right now. He has a BB/K split of 7/32 over his last 30 innings with the support of a 13% swing and miss rate. With a 3.59/3.91 ERA/xERA split, a 1.09 WHIP and 69 K’s in 68 innings, Straily has found a nice groove. The Marlins bats should do the rest.
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Oakland +115 over TAMPA BAY
This is the first game of a double-header and after getting smoked last night and getting smoked often on the road all year, the Athletics are tough to get behind but we’re going to do exactly that because the value is there. Neck, shoulder and forearm injuries affected Sonny Gray’s playing time last year (10 weeks over 2 DL trips). His control and hr/f ballooned sending his ERA, WHIP and opponent OPS soaring. Even so, his K-rate, first-pitch strike rate and groundball rate stayed solid, giving hope that with health, 2016 can be forgotten but so far that hasn’t been the case—on paper.
Gray has 2-2 record after seven starts (he started the year a month behind everyone else) with a 4.57 ERA. Pitching half his games in Oakland makes that ERA look even worse. However, under the hood, Gray is finally starting to resemble the budding rotation anchor that he used to be. Underneath his near-5 ERA are 8.1 K’s/9, 2.6 BB’s/9 and a 60% groundball rate. He missed bats at a decent clip (11.3%) and got ahead of hitters (65% first-pitch strike rate) at a good clip too. Gray’s low 64% strand rate is the reason his ERA is high. We’re paying attention to his outstanding 3.05 xERA over his last five starts. If you want to speculate on a former high-upside starter with great value, this is a good place to do so.
Erasmo Ramirez (RHP, TAM) toes the rubber for start number 6. Though he faces the same OAK team as Andriese, Erasmo Ramirez has only completed the 6th inning in one start and has only made five on the year after appearing 12 times in relief. Ramirez’s 2016 move to the bullpen was essentially a remix of previous years in shorter takes. He’s a pitcher without a role. He’s appeared in 162 games since 2012 with 68 of those being starts.
Lefties and long flies have always been problematic even though he’s a groundball pitcher. Neither role has uncovered anything hidden in his skill set so he’ll likely be more valuable to his team than he is to us. Ramirez will have some good outings and some bad ones and we have no idea which it’ll be today. At this point, it's hard to envision him as anything but just a pedestrian arm. What we know for sure is that Gray is the superior pitcher taking back a tag.
