Saturday’s NHL Playoffs Betting Cheat Sheet
•Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders (-125, 5)
Capitals lead series 3-2
The Washington Capitals can punch their ticket into the second round of the playoffs and put the final nail in the coffin for the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum when the Metropolitan Division rivals play Game 6 on Saturday afternoon. Evgeny Kuznetsov collected two goals and an assist as Washington posted a 5-1 triumph over New York on Thursday to seize a 3-2 edge in the series.
The Islanders could be playing their last game at the Coliseum, as the team is slated to move to Barclays Center in Brooklyn (N.Y.) next season. “It’s obvious that there’s a lot of emotion in the building,” New York coach Jack Capuano said after Friday’s practice. “At some point, it was going to come to this … We want to play our best in front of this crowd.” The Islanders posted a 25-14-2 record at home this season, equaling their most such victories since 1984-85.
TRENDS:
*Islanders are 6-13 in their last 19 overall.
*Home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
*Capitals are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
*Islanders are 3-9 in their last 12 home games.
•Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning (-182, 5)
Series tied 2-2
Fueled by the momentum of a stirring comeback, the Tampa Bay Lightning look to seize control of their Eastern Conference first-round series with the Detroit Red Wings when the Atlantic Division rivals reconvene at Amalie Arena for Game 5 on Saturday. Petr Mrazek saw his shutout streak of more than 119 minutes come to an end late in the third period, and the Lightning overcame a two-goal deficit to post a stunning 3-2 overtime victory on Thursday.
After scoring twice in Game 2, Tyler Johnson netted his second goal of the contest 2:25 into overtime and Ondrej Palat also tallied late to tie the series at two victories apiece. “It’s always nice when you’re 2-2 instead of 3-1. That’s a big shift there,” Johnson said. “I think especially going back in front of our crowd now, it’s a best of three, we have home ice again.” Tampa Bay owned the best home record during the regular season (32-8-1), although Detroit claimed a 3-2 road victory in Game 1.
TRENDS:
*Lightning are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
*Under is 3-1-1 in Red Wings last 5 overall.
*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Home team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
•Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks (-168, 5)
Blackhawks lead 3-2
After failing on their initial attempt, the Calgary Flames take a second shot at winning their first playoff series in 11 years when they host the Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round matchup on Saturday. Calgary, which hasn’t advanced past the opening round since making a trip to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, split the first two games of the series in Vancouver before capturing the next two contests at Scotiabank Saddledome to grab a 3-1 lead.
With a chance to set up a second-round showdown with Pacific Division-rival Anaheim, the Flames were unable to seal the deal Thursday, dropping a 2-1 decision at Rogers Arena despite scoring first. David Jones gave Calgary an early lead as he scored his second goal of the series 2:40 into the contest, but Nick Bonino forged a tie in the middle period and Daniel Sedin snapped it 1:47 into the third. Ryan Miller made 20 saves in his first start since the regular-season finale as the Canucks avoided their third first-round exit in as many postseason appearances. Vancouver has not won a playoff series since 2011, when it lost to Boston in seven games in the Stanley Cup final.
TRENDS:
*Predators are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Blackhawks last 6 overall.
*Predators are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.
*Over is 9-2-3 in Predators last 14 overall.
•Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames (-126, 5)
Flames lead series 3-2
After failing on their initial attempt, the Calgary Flames take a second shot at winning their first playoff series in 11 years when they host the Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round matchup on Saturday. Calgary, which hasn’t advanced past the opening round since making a trip to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, split the first two games of the series in Vancouver before capturing the next two contests at Scotiabank Saddledome to grab a 3-1 lead.
With a chance to set up a second-round showdown with Pacific Division-rival Anaheim, the Flames were unable to seal the deal Thursday, dropping a 2-1 decision at Rogers Arena despite scoring first. David Jones gave Calgary an early lead as he scored his second goal of the series 2:40 into the contest, but Nick Bonino forged a tie in the middle period and Daniel Sedin snapped it 1:47 into the third. Ryan Miller made 20 saves in his first start since the regular-season finale as the Canucks avoided their third first-round exit in as many postseason appearances. Vancouver has not won a playoff series since 2011, when it lost to Boston in seven games in the Stanley Cup final.
TRENDS:
*Under is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings.
*Canucks are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.
*Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
*Flames are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. Pacific.
•Washington Capitals vs. New York Islanders (-125, 5)
Capitals lead series 3-2
The Washington Capitals can punch their ticket into the second round of the playoffs and put the final nail in the coffin for the New York Islanders at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum when the Metropolitan Division rivals play Game 6 on Saturday afternoon. Evgeny Kuznetsov collected two goals and an assist as Washington posted a 5-1 triumph over New York on Thursday to seize a 3-2 edge in the series.
The Islanders could be playing their last game at the Coliseum, as the team is slated to move to Barclays Center in Brooklyn (N.Y.) next season. “It’s obvious that there’s a lot of emotion in the building,” New York coach Jack Capuano said after Friday’s practice. “At some point, it was going to come to this … We want to play our best in front of this crowd.” The Islanders posted a 25-14-2 record at home this season, equaling their most such victories since 1984-85.
TRENDS:
*Islanders are 6-13 in their last 19 overall.
*Home team is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
*Capitals are 7-3 in their last 10 road games.
*Islanders are 3-9 in their last 12 home games.
•Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning (-182, 5)
Series tied 2-2
Fueled by the momentum of a stirring comeback, the Tampa Bay Lightning look to seize control of their Eastern Conference first-round series with the Detroit Red Wings when the Atlantic Division rivals reconvene at Amalie Arena for Game 5 on Saturday. Petr Mrazek saw his shutout streak of more than 119 minutes come to an end late in the third period, and the Lightning overcame a two-goal deficit to post a stunning 3-2 overtime victory on Thursday.
After scoring twice in Game 2, Tyler Johnson netted his second goal of the contest 2:25 into overtime and Ondrej Palat also tallied late to tie the series at two victories apiece. “It’s always nice when you’re 2-2 instead of 3-1. That’s a big shift there,” Johnson said. “I think especially going back in front of our crowd now, it’s a best of three, we have home ice again.” Tampa Bay owned the best home record during the regular season (32-8-1), although Detroit claimed a 3-2 road victory in Game 1.
TRENDS:
*Lightning are 5-2 in their last 7 overall.
*Under is 3-1-1 in Red Wings last 5 overall.
*Under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.
*Home team is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
•Nashville Predators at Chicago Blackhawks (-168, 5)
Blackhawks lead 3-2
After failing on their initial attempt, the Calgary Flames take a second shot at winning their first playoff series in 11 years when they host the Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round matchup on Saturday. Calgary, which hasn’t advanced past the opening round since making a trip to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, split the first two games of the series in Vancouver before capturing the next two contests at Scotiabank Saddledome to grab a 3-1 lead.
With a chance to set up a second-round showdown with Pacific Division-rival Anaheim, the Flames were unable to seal the deal Thursday, dropping a 2-1 decision at Rogers Arena despite scoring first. David Jones gave Calgary an early lead as he scored his second goal of the series 2:40 into the contest, but Nick Bonino forged a tie in the middle period and Daniel Sedin snapped it 1:47 into the third. Ryan Miller made 20 saves in his first start since the regular-season finale as the Canucks avoided their third first-round exit in as many postseason appearances. Vancouver has not won a playoff series since 2011, when it lost to Boston in seven games in the Stanley Cup final.
TRENDS:
*Predators are 2-9 in their last 11 overall.
*Over is 4-1-1 in Blackhawks last 6 overall.
*Predators are 0-4 in the last 4 meetings in Chicago.
*Over is 9-2-3 in Predators last 14 overall.
•Vancouver Canucks at Calgary Flames (-126, 5)
Flames lead series 3-2
After failing on their initial attempt, the Calgary Flames take a second shot at winning their first playoff series in 11 years when they host the Vancouver Canucks in Game 6 of their Western Conference first-round matchup on Saturday. Calgary, which hasn’t advanced past the opening round since making a trip to the Stanley Cup final in 2004, split the first two games of the series in Vancouver before capturing the next two contests at Scotiabank Saddledome to grab a 3-1 lead.
With a chance to set up a second-round showdown with Pacific Division-rival Anaheim, the Flames were unable to seal the deal Thursday, dropping a 2-1 decision at Rogers Arena despite scoring first. David Jones gave Calgary an early lead as he scored his second goal of the series 2:40 into the contest, but Nick Bonino forged a tie in the middle period and Daniel Sedin snapped it 1:47 into the third. Ryan Miller made 20 saves in his first start since the regular-season finale as the Canucks avoided their third first-round exit in as many postseason appearances. Vancouver has not won a playoff series since 2011, when it lost to Boston in seven games in the Stanley Cup final.
TRENDS:
*Under is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings.
*Canucks are 0-4 in their last 4 road games.
*Home team is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
*Flames are 22-7 in their last 29 vs. Pacific.
MMA OddsBreaker
Parlay Sarah Kaufman (-200) with Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-351)
Sarah Kaufman has already defeated Alexis Davis pretty convincingly twice. She's stronger, more powerful and a much more technical striker than Davis and history will likely repeat itself. The only chance Davis has at winning is to take this fight to the ground and Kaufman is well aware of that.
I'm going to parlay Kaufman with Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Aubin-Mercier is a heavily hyped Canadian prospect and he's taking on a fighter with significantly less technical skill in David Michaud. Barring a lucky punch or an incredibly unfortunate injury of sequence, Mercier will likely win this fight convincingly both standing and on the ground, so I see value in the parlay.
Parlay Sarah Kaufman (-200) with Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-351)
Sarah Kaufman has already defeated Alexis Davis pretty convincingly twice. She's stronger, more powerful and a much more technical striker than Davis and history will likely repeat itself. The only chance Davis has at winning is to take this fight to the ground and Kaufman is well aware of that.
I'm going to parlay Kaufman with Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Aubin-Mercier is a heavily hyped Canadian prospect and he's taking on a fighter with significantly less technical skill in David Michaud. Barring a lucky punch or an incredibly unfortunate injury of sequence, Mercier will likely win this fight convincingly both standing and on the ground, so I see value in the parlay.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Indians +117
The Cleveland Indians are showing excellent value as road underdogs today to the Detroit Tigers. They put up a 13-1 beat down of the Tigers yesterday, and I like their chances of running away with this one as well with Trevor Bauer on the mound.
Bauer has really stepped up his game this season and has been as dominant as anyone. He has gone 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs over 19 innings while striking out a whopping 26 batters.
Alfredo Simon has posted great numbers through three starts for Detroit as well, but I believe he's being overvalued and isn't as talented as Bauer. Plus, Simon sports a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland.
Detroit is just 44-43 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 16-6 in their last 22 Saturday games. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last four home games.
Cleveland Indians +117
The Cleveland Indians are showing excellent value as road underdogs today to the Detroit Tigers. They put up a 13-1 beat down of the Tigers yesterday, and I like their chances of running away with this one as well with Trevor Bauer on the mound.
Bauer has really stepped up his game this season and has been as dominant as anyone. He has gone 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and 1.000 WHIP while allowing just 2 earned runs over 19 innings while striking out a whopping 26 batters.
Alfredo Simon has posted great numbers through three starts for Detroit as well, but I believe he's being overvalued and isn't as talented as Bauer. Plus, Simon sports a 5.19 ERA in three career starts against Cleveland.
Detroit is just 44-43 (-14.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. The Indians are 16-6 in their last 22 Saturday games. The Tigers are 0-4 in their last four home games.
Jeff Scott Sports
LA Dodgers/ San Diego Under 7 (-125): Last night just 3 runs were scored and I can almost see the same amount for this one. Neither offense is strong enough right now to score many runs in this park and both starters have pitched well in Petco of late. Last year Brandon faced the Padres twice here and allowed just 1 ER in the two games, while Ian has a 3.17 ERA in his last 5 starts here. Let's also note that the Under is 13-3 the last 16 games between these teams at Petco. Another night game in San Diego that shouldn't yield many runs.
LA Dodgers/ San Diego Under 7 (-125): Last night just 3 runs were scored and I can almost see the same amount for this one. Neither offense is strong enough right now to score many runs in this park and both starters have pitched well in Petco of late. Last year Brandon faced the Padres twice here and allowed just 1 ER in the two games, while Ian has a 3.17 ERA in his last 5 starts here. Let's also note that the Under is 13-3 the last 16 games between these teams at Petco. Another night game in San Diego that shouldn't yield many runs.
Jimmy Boyd
Chicago Bulls -4½
The Bucks threw everything they had at the Bulls in Game 3, but in the end were dealt a crushing 113-106 double-overtime loss at home. Milwaukee let an 18-point lead slip away and had multiple chances to win the game late. With the series now sitting at 3-0 in favor of Chicago, I just don't think the Bucks will emotionally be able to bounce back.
Chicago on the other hand has to feel fortunate to escape with a win after how poorly they started. With a second round matchup against Lebron James and the Cavaliers all but a certainty, I look for the Bulls to come out extremely motivated to finish off Milwaukee.
The Bucks are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a home loss, plus we find a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going over the total by 24 or more points in their previous game and have won 60% to 75% of their games are 29-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76.3% system in favor of the Bulls.
Chicago Bulls -4½
The Bucks threw everything they had at the Bulls in Game 3, but in the end were dealt a crushing 113-106 double-overtime loss at home. Milwaukee let an 18-point lead slip away and had multiple chances to win the game late. With the series now sitting at 3-0 in favor of Chicago, I just don't think the Bucks will emotionally be able to bounce back.
Chicago on the other hand has to feel fortunate to escape with a win after how poorly they started. With a second round matchup against Lebron James and the Cavaliers all but a certainty, I look for the Bulls to come out extremely motivated to finish off Milwaukee.
The Bucks are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when revenging a home loss, plus we find a strong system in play. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after going over the total by 24 or more points in their previous game and have won 60% to 75% of their games are 29-9 ATS over the last 5 seasons. That's a 76.3% system in favor of the Bulls.
Dave Price
Rangers/Angels Over 8
This is a very low total considering these are two of the more potent offenses in the American League up against two starting pitchers who are well past their primes. Colby Lewis sports a 4.82 ERA and 1.393 WHIP over his career. He had a 5.18 ERA last year in 29 starts and is getting too much love because of a 3.79 ERA through three starts in 2015. C.J. Wilson is coming off one of the worst years of his career as he posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.446 WHIP over 31 starts. Lewis is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA in 17 career starts against the Angels, while Wilson is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in eight career starts against Texas.
Rangers/Angels Over 8
This is a very low total considering these are two of the more potent offenses in the American League up against two starting pitchers who are well past their primes. Colby Lewis sports a 4.82 ERA and 1.393 WHIP over his career. He had a 5.18 ERA last year in 29 starts and is getting too much love because of a 3.79 ERA through three starts in 2015. C.J. Wilson is coming off one of the worst years of his career as he posted a 4.51 ERA and 1.446 WHIP over 31 starts. Lewis is 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA in 17 career starts against the Angels, while Wilson is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in eight career starts against Texas.
Jesse Schule
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7.5
The Marlins took Game 1 of this series versus Washington by a score of 3-2, but I think we can expect a few more runs to cross the plate here in Game 2 in Miami. Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's off to a disappointing start to the season. Strasburg (1-1, 4.50 ERA) allowed one run on five hits and two walks over 7 1/3 innings in a home win over the Phillies his last time out. That was against the major league's worst offensive team, and he had been tagged for 11 runs on 19 hits over 10 2/3 innings prior to that. Strasburg has faced the Marlins more than any other team, and he owns a decent record going 7-4 in 15 starts since 2012. Only one of those wins came in Miami, where he's 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA. The big bats in the Marlins lineup have punished Strasburg, as Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .357 with three homers and nine RBIs, and Marcel Ozuna is 6-for-13 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander. The Fish hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been hit hard so far this season. Koehler (1-2, 6.75 ERA) was torched for seven runs on five hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. Jayson Werth is hitting .300 with a pair of home runs in 10 career at bats versus Koehler.
Nationals vs. Marlins
Play: Over 7.5
The Marlins took Game 1 of this series versus Washington by a score of 3-2, but I think we can expect a few more runs to cross the plate here in Game 2 in Miami. Stephen Strasburg will toe the slab for the visitors, and he's off to a disappointing start to the season. Strasburg (1-1, 4.50 ERA) allowed one run on five hits and two walks over 7 1/3 innings in a home win over the Phillies his last time out. That was against the major league's worst offensive team, and he had been tagged for 11 runs on 19 hits over 10 2/3 innings prior to that. Strasburg has faced the Marlins more than any other team, and he owns a decent record going 7-4 in 15 starts since 2012. Only one of those wins came in Miami, where he's 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA. The big bats in the Marlins lineup have punished Strasburg, as Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .357 with three homers and nine RBIs, and Marcel Ozuna is 6-for-13 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander. The Fish hand the ball to Tom Koehler, who has been hit hard so far this season. Koehler (1-2, 6.75 ERA) was torched for seven runs on five hits and two walks in just 3 1/3 innings in a loss to the Mets his last time out. Jayson Werth is hitting .300 with a pair of home runs in 10 career at bats versus Koehler.
Mr Vegas
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox
Boston brings a winning road record into this series and the Red Sox are 4-1 in Justin Masterson's last 5 starts. The offense is much improved and the Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen has walked 8 batters with 11 hits in 14+ innings. The Orioles are 2-5 in Chen's last 7 starts.
Red Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Red Sox
Boston brings a winning road record into this series and the Red Sox are 4-1 in Justin Masterson's last 5 starts. The offense is much improved and the Orioles are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen has walked 8 batters with 11 hits in 14+ innings. The Orioles are 2-5 in Chen's last 7 starts.
Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Saturday
(961) GIANTS at (962) ROCKIES 8:10 PM
Take: (962) ROCKIES -115
It’s the Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Show! The debut of the 2015 edition was a major flop, but I’ll be back on JDLR today as the Rockies attempt to record another win against the Giants.
De La Rosa was bombed out on Monday as the Padres simply annihilated almost everything he threw. But there didn’t appear to be anything wrong with De La Rosa. In fact, he might have been a little too strong as his velocity was up from his norm, and that could well have impacted his command. In any event, I’m chalking it up as just one bad start. Even with the loss, the Rockies are now a mind boggling 48-10 at Coors when De La Rosa starts, and that’s about the most insane putting trend I’ve ever seen.
Tim Hudson draws the assignment for the defending champs. I see some red flags for Huddy in spite of his putting up acceptable numbers in his first three starts. One of those alerts regarding Hudson is his velocity dip. This guy is as crafty as it gets, and that’s how he’s flourished for so long in spite of never having blow away stuff. But now Hudson is down to an 87.5 average with the #1 and his other offerings have also shown some decline.
If Hudson is able to locate and generate his usual quota of ground balls, he should be okay in most parks. But there’s not much room for error in this ballpark and Coors has never been heaven on earth for Hudson. He’s made eight starts at this stadium and has yet to record a win, while compiling an unattractive 7.29 ERA in 42 innings of work.
The Rockies have had the Giants number so far this season and I have to believe that it’s too soon to bail on the De La Rosa home express. No bargain on the price as the Rockies have opened as the favorite, but it’s certainly not a severe impost, so I’ll be backing the Rockies tonight.
Bonus Play Saturday
(961) GIANTS at (962) ROCKIES 8:10 PM
Take: (962) ROCKIES -115
It’s the Jorge De La Rosa at Coors Show! The debut of the 2015 edition was a major flop, but I’ll be back on JDLR today as the Rockies attempt to record another win against the Giants.
De La Rosa was bombed out on Monday as the Padres simply annihilated almost everything he threw. But there didn’t appear to be anything wrong with De La Rosa. In fact, he might have been a little too strong as his velocity was up from his norm, and that could well have impacted his command. In any event, I’m chalking it up as just one bad start. Even with the loss, the Rockies are now a mind boggling 48-10 at Coors when De La Rosa starts, and that’s about the most insane putting trend I’ve ever seen.
Tim Hudson draws the assignment for the defending champs. I see some red flags for Huddy in spite of his putting up acceptable numbers in his first three starts. One of those alerts regarding Hudson is his velocity dip. This guy is as crafty as it gets, and that’s how he’s flourished for so long in spite of never having blow away stuff. But now Hudson is down to an 87.5 average with the #1 and his other offerings have also shown some decline.
If Hudson is able to locate and generate his usual quota of ground balls, he should be okay in most parks. But there’s not much room for error in this ballpark and Coors has never been heaven on earth for Hudson. He’s made eight starts at this stadium and has yet to record a win, while compiling an unattractive 7.29 ERA in 42 innings of work.
The Rockies have had the Giants number so far this season and I have to believe that it’s too soon to bail on the De La Rosa home express. No bargain on the price as the Rockies have opened as the favorite, but it’s certainly not a severe impost, so I’ll be backing the Rockies tonight.
Bill Marzano
Warriors at Pelicans
Play: Pelicans
I really like the New Orleans Pelicans + the points in this game vs the Golden State Warriors...the Warriors have a commanding 3-0 series lead and look to put the Pelicans out of their misery tonight however, I think the Pelicans will come to play...the Warriors are a loose bunch and just may take this game a little to lightly and I think they will struggle shooting the rock tonight.
Warriors at Pelicans
Play: Pelicans
I really like the New Orleans Pelicans + the points in this game vs the Golden State Warriors...the Warriors have a commanding 3-0 series lead and look to put the Pelicans out of their misery tonight however, I think the Pelicans will come to play...the Warriors are a loose bunch and just may take this game a little to lightly and I think they will struggle shooting the rock tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta -1½ +143 over PHILADELPHIA
Lay the 15 to 20 cents if you prefer because there is more risk in spotting 1½-runs but if we figured the game to be close, we wouldn’t bet it no matter what. What we’re seeing this year is a lot of low totals and much smaller lines than previous years. Thus, as the linesmakers adjust to how the market is betting, so too, must we adjust. That adjustment for us comes in playing more favorites than usual and spotting 1½-runs with a bigger take-back. The lower the betting line, the higher the 1½-run take-back is, which is one way we’re going to attack the oddsmakers adjustments.
Philadelphia is hitting .215, which is last in the NL and second last in the entire league. The Phillies 42 runs scored over 17 games is dead last in the entire league and now they’re being asked to solve Shelby Miller. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are the only two players on the Phillies roster that have had success against Miller but Howard is batting .180 this year and Utley is batting .135. Miller has two pure quality starts in three tries this year. He’s maintained his fastball velocity of 93-94 mph after some encouraging signs in the second half of 2014, when his career-best control drove his WHIP down to 1.09. Early results (1.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP) may be a matter of both luck (26% hit%/84% strand%) and skill development (3.78 xERA) but we like what the numbers are saying. Miller has added a wicked slider to his previous two-pitch arsenal and the result is a rock-solid 56% groundball rate.
Then there’s David Buchanan. Buchanan went 6-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 118 innings for the Phillies last season. It was a seemingly decent debut but xERA isn't convinced. Buchanan’s uninspiring first-pitch strike rate last year of 57% (which is the exact same as this year) suggests his 2nd half control gains were a mirage and as it turns out, it was a mirage. In three starts this year covering 13.2 innings, Buchanan was a brutal BB/K split of 9/8. Buchanan’s fastball tops off at 89.3 MPH. He’s allowed 22 hits in 13.2 innings to go along with those nine free passes. That equals a WHIP of 2.27. In other words, dude is pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning he’s out there. Buchanan’s low 6% swinging strike rate says not much is going to change. His 52% groundball profile profile limits some risk but that’s sugar-coating this. In a baseball fantasy draft, David Buchanan is a 23rd round pick in a deep NL-only league and we’re in definite attack mode on this stiff.
Atlanta -1½ +143 over PHILADELPHIA
Lay the 15 to 20 cents if you prefer because there is more risk in spotting 1½-runs but if we figured the game to be close, we wouldn’t bet it no matter what. What we’re seeing this year is a lot of low totals and much smaller lines than previous years. Thus, as the linesmakers adjust to how the market is betting, so too, must we adjust. That adjustment for us comes in playing more favorites than usual and spotting 1½-runs with a bigger take-back. The lower the betting line, the higher the 1½-run take-back is, which is one way we’re going to attack the oddsmakers adjustments.
Philadelphia is hitting .215, which is last in the NL and second last in the entire league. The Phillies 42 runs scored over 17 games is dead last in the entire league and now they’re being asked to solve Shelby Miller. Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are the only two players on the Phillies roster that have had success against Miller but Howard is batting .180 this year and Utley is batting .135. Miller has two pure quality starts in three tries this year. He’s maintained his fastball velocity of 93-94 mph after some encouraging signs in the second half of 2014, when his career-best control drove his WHIP down to 1.09. Early results (1.69 ERA/1.19 WHIP) may be a matter of both luck (26% hit%/84% strand%) and skill development (3.78 xERA) but we like what the numbers are saying. Miller has added a wicked slider to his previous two-pitch arsenal and the result is a rock-solid 56% groundball rate.
Then there’s David Buchanan. Buchanan went 6-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 118 innings for the Phillies last season. It was a seemingly decent debut but xERA isn't convinced. Buchanan’s uninspiring first-pitch strike rate last year of 57% (which is the exact same as this year) suggests his 2nd half control gains were a mirage and as it turns out, it was a mirage. In three starts this year covering 13.2 innings, Buchanan was a brutal BB/K split of 9/8. Buchanan’s fastball tops off at 89.3 MPH. He’s allowed 22 hits in 13.2 innings to go along with those nine free passes. That equals a WHIP of 2.27. In other words, dude is pitching with the bases loaded almost every inning he’s out there. Buchanan’s low 6% swinging strike rate says not much is going to change. His 52% groundball profile profile limits some risk but that’s sugar-coating this. In a baseball fantasy draft, David Buchanan is a 23rd round pick in a deep NL-only league and we’re in definite attack mode on this stiff.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE +4½ Over Chicago
Milwaukee’s Game 3 loss to Chicago (116-107) was a bit of a misnomer. On paper, the Bulls won the game by a significant margin and covered the number in the process. However, it took two overtimes for Chicago to get rid of Milwaukee and the Bucks had plenty of opportunities to put the Bulls away but failed to capitalize. Respectively, this is the difference between Chicago and Milwaukee and why one team emerged as division champion and the latter as a sub .500 wildcard. In other words, Chicago knows how to finish a team off while the Bucks are still learning. We are not here to pick fun at the Bucks. In fact, we are suggesting that the Bucks be taken a bit more seriously. Despite being down 0-3 in the series, Milwaukee could just as easily be up 2-1. They were down a deuce in Chicago in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and as mentioned, they went to double OT in Game 3. The Bucks are not hanging their heads in disappointment. This was a team that was projected to finish far out of the playoffs so just being here and competing at this level at this time of year is an accomplishment they can be proud of. That said, the Bucks aren’t going to go away quietly. They have been outstanding at the Bradley Center all season and there’s nothing suggesting that won’t continue. The Bucks have not looked a bit out of place this entire series.
We also like that the entire NBA world is talking about the impact that Derrick Rose has had on this series. No question that Rose has been phenomenal and deserves every accolade thrown his way but that also brings attention to the Bulls and lots of it. The sudden hype attracts more TV viewers and more bettors, especially the general public, who suddenly want to see what the fuss is all about. Suddenly, more people want to see Derrick Rose play more than they want to watch LeBron and the Cavs. All this sudden attention on Rose and the Bulls impacts the number. The media always has an impact on the point-spread and that’s where we come in. Remember, Chicago was just a 7½-pont choice in Game 2 in Chicago. They were a 2½-point choice in Game 3 in Milwaukee in a game the Bucks led by 18 at one point. Derrick Rose goes off for 34 points and was the difference in Game 3 and now the now the line jumps to -4½, which is one possession less than they were in Chicago. We always stress playing value and now because of all the Rose-hype, we get an inflated price on this home pooch, which is a bet we would make almost 100% of the time and make no exception here.
MILWAUKEE +4½ Over Chicago
Milwaukee’s Game 3 loss to Chicago (116-107) was a bit of a misnomer. On paper, the Bulls won the game by a significant margin and covered the number in the process. However, it took two overtimes for Chicago to get rid of Milwaukee and the Bucks had plenty of opportunities to put the Bulls away but failed to capitalize. Respectively, this is the difference between Chicago and Milwaukee and why one team emerged as division champion and the latter as a sub .500 wildcard. In other words, Chicago knows how to finish a team off while the Bucks are still learning. We are not here to pick fun at the Bucks. In fact, we are suggesting that the Bucks be taken a bit more seriously. Despite being down 0-3 in the series, Milwaukee could just as easily be up 2-1. They were down a deuce in Chicago in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and as mentioned, they went to double OT in Game 3. The Bucks are not hanging their heads in disappointment. This was a team that was projected to finish far out of the playoffs so just being here and competing at this level at this time of year is an accomplishment they can be proud of. That said, the Bucks aren’t going to go away quietly. They have been outstanding at the Bradley Center all season and there’s nothing suggesting that won’t continue. The Bucks have not looked a bit out of place this entire series.
We also like that the entire NBA world is talking about the impact that Derrick Rose has had on this series. No question that Rose has been phenomenal and deserves every accolade thrown his way but that also brings attention to the Bulls and lots of it. The sudden hype attracts more TV viewers and more bettors, especially the general public, who suddenly want to see what the fuss is all about. Suddenly, more people want to see Derrick Rose play more than they want to watch LeBron and the Cavs. All this sudden attention on Rose and the Bulls impacts the number. The media always has an impact on the point-spread and that’s where we come in. Remember, Chicago was just a 7½-pont choice in Game 2 in Chicago. They were a 2½-point choice in Game 3 in Milwaukee in a game the Bucks led by 18 at one point. Derrick Rose goes off for 34 points and was the difference in Game 3 and now the now the line jumps to -4½, which is one possession less than they were in Chicago. We always stress playing value and now because of all the Rose-hype, we get an inflated price on this home pooch, which is a bet we would make almost 100% of the time and make no exception here.
SPORTS WAGERS
Washington +115 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Capitals have a significant edge in net so even before the puck drops that alone makes them worthy of a wager. Give us a tag on the better goaltender in an otherwise fairly even matchup and our chances of cashing increase. There’s more than just goaltending that has us leaning to this live puppy too. Washington has been extremely physical in this series and it appears to be wearing down the Islanders. In fact, Washington has allowed just one goal against in each of the past three games (Islanders scored in OT in Game 3) and has now outscored the Isles 8-4 over that span. Last game in Washington may have been a defining moment for these Caps as well. They outshot the Islanders 41-23 and scored five times. The five goals scored is not that significant but the fact that Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin were held off the scoreboard is. Now the Islanders have something else to think about. The Islanders cannot focus on shutting down one line, as all of Washington’s lines are creating chances. Washington has slowly but surely taken over this series in a methodical way.
After losing the opening game of this series, it would appear that Caps Coach, Barry Trotz has made the better adjustments. Washington has now won three of the past four games and has absolutely planted a seed of doubt into the Islanders. A healthy Matt Niskanen has made a world of difference on defense for Washington, as he has been a complete monster out there every time he steps in the ice. Game by game, period by period, minute by minute, what we see is the Caps getting stronger while the Islanders are getting worn down. Not having confidence in your goaltender makes a huge difference as well, as the Islanders players are more cautious or afraid to make a mistake because it usually ends up in the back of the net. Now the Isles come into this elimination game up against it in all areas, which includes confidence, goaltending, scoring, defense and physical play. Barry Trotz has spent the entire season getting this team “playoff ready” and it all pays off here.
Washington +115 over N.Y. ISLANDERS
OT included. The Capitals have a significant edge in net so even before the puck drops that alone makes them worthy of a wager. Give us a tag on the better goaltender in an otherwise fairly even matchup and our chances of cashing increase. There’s more than just goaltending that has us leaning to this live puppy too. Washington has been extremely physical in this series and it appears to be wearing down the Islanders. In fact, Washington has allowed just one goal against in each of the past three games (Islanders scored in OT in Game 3) and has now outscored the Isles 8-4 over that span. Last game in Washington may have been a defining moment for these Caps as well. They outshot the Islanders 41-23 and scored five times. The five goals scored is not that significant but the fact that Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin were held off the scoreboard is. Now the Islanders have something else to think about. The Islanders cannot focus on shutting down one line, as all of Washington’s lines are creating chances. Washington has slowly but surely taken over this series in a methodical way.
After losing the opening game of this series, it would appear that Caps Coach, Barry Trotz has made the better adjustments. Washington has now won three of the past four games and has absolutely planted a seed of doubt into the Islanders. A healthy Matt Niskanen has made a world of difference on defense for Washington, as he has been a complete monster out there every time he steps in the ice. Game by game, period by period, minute by minute, what we see is the Caps getting stronger while the Islanders are getting worn down. Not having confidence in your goaltender makes a huge difference as well, as the Islanders players are more cautious or afraid to make a mistake because it usually ends up in the back of the net. Now the Isles come into this elimination game up against it in all areas, which includes confidence, goaltending, scoring, defense and physical play. Barry Trotz has spent the entire season getting this team “playoff ready” and it all pays off here.
