Larry Ness' Club-80 Play-MLB (28-6 or 82.4%)-Day
My 20* Clu-80 Play is on the StL Cards at 4:10 ET. No one will argue against the fact that Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). Oswalt was an Opening Day loser to Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs 4-2, going seven innings, allowing seven hits and three ERs. He'll take a career 129-65 (3.13) mark into this game, a winning percentage of .665. It should also be noted that the Atros are an impressive 157-56 in all his starts (.654), although the breakdown is much more favorable at home (87-37 or .702) than it is on the road (70-56 or .556). Oswalt is 9-5 with a 2.86 ERA in 24 career starts vs St Louis and 1-1 with a 1.83 ERA in five starts in the most recent edition of Busch Stadium, which is his lowest ERA at any ballpark where he has made at least five starts. However, he hasn�t received much support in those contests, with the Astros scoring a total of only 14 runs in losing FOUR of his five starts. Therein lies the rub. The Astros scored just three runs in a 5-3 loss last night at St Louis, falling to 1-3 on the year. Houston has now scored more than three runs just ONCE in their first four games of 2009. That doesn't figure to improve here vs Adam Wainwright. Wainwright made 61 appearances (all out of the bullpen) in 2006, when the Cards won the World Series, posting a 3.12 ERA. However, like a number of the St Louis pitchers, he was converted to a starter in 2007, going 14-12 with a 3.70 ERA in 2008 over 32 starts (team was 19-13). Injuries limited him to 20 starts last year but he was a splendid 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA, as the Cards went 15-5. He finished plus-$910 vs the moneyline, ranking 17th among all MLB starters. While Oswalt is a formidable mound opponent, the advantages of taking the Cards are compelling. Look at these numbers. The Cards were 10-1 (2.63) ERA in Wainwright's 11 home starts last year, although they did drop their season opener to the Pirates this year (with Wainwright on the mound), when Pittsburgh rallied for a four-run ninth in a 6-4 win. Still that's 10-2 at home in Wainwright's starts since the beginning of 2008. Add in that the Cards went 11-4 (plus-$625) in home day games last year vs righties and are 1-0 already this year in that situation (won 2-1 on Thursday afternoon) and you get to 12-4. Now note that Wainwright is 5-0 with a 2.32 ERA vs the Astros in his career over six starts (team is 6-0) and the numbers really start to build. That's 10-2 + 12-4 + 6-0 for 28-6 or 82.4 percent. That's good enough for me. Club-80 Play 20* StL Cards.
Good Luck...Larry
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