NCAAB Saturday's Early Tips
By David Schwab
Mismatches in conference play happen almost every day during the men’s college basketball season, but bettors that like to go with heavy chalk are obviously only concerned with the favorite’s ability to cover the spread. This Saturday’s slate features two high-profile matchups that fit the bill starting with No. 1 Kentucky playing host to South Carolina in the SEC. The second mismatch takes us to the ACC where Wake Forest will go on the road to square off against No. 2 Virginia.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (ESPN, 2 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Kentucky -19
The Gamecocks have posted just three straight-up wins in the SEC this season against eight losses and they have been even worse against the spread with a record of 1-10. They are 2-5 ATS this season as underdogs and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games. The one ray of hope to keeping this game close is a defensive effort that is holding opposing teams to an average of 61.3 points per game. Offensively, a pair of sophomore guards in Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice has led the way with a combined 22.5 PPG, but both are hitting fewer than 40 percent of their shots from the field.
Kentucky continues to roll through the regular season with 24 straight wins, but it has been a drain on the bankroll lately after failing to cover in its last five outings with the total going OVER in each game. The Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as double-digit favorites and 3-8 ATS in conference play. There is no doubt that the pressure to run the table continues to build, but Kentucky remains the most dominant team in the nation. Its offense is averaging 73.5 PPG with seven different player averaging at least seven points. This complements a smothering defense that is ranked second in the nation in points allowed (52.2).
Betting Trends
-- The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record and they have failed to cover in their last five road games. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 16 games played on the road.
-- The Wildcats have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 20 of their last 28 games at home.
-- The favorite in this series has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games. Kentucky has won seven of the last eight contests SU including a 58-43 victory as a 12-point road favorite in the first meeting this season on Jan. 24.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (ESPN3, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Virginia -17 ½
Wake Forest comes into Saturday’s game fresh off a solid 72-70 upset over Miami as a 2 ½-point home underdog this past Wednesday. It is now 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in its last four ACC games after starting conference play with just one SU win in its first seven matchups. The total has gone OVER in eight of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons are averaging a respectable 71.2 PPG, but they are hitting just 42.4 percent of their shots from the field. Junior guard Codi Miller-McIntyre leads the team in scoring with 14.2 PPG and junior forward Devin Thomas is pulling down a team-high 9.6 rebounds a game.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in four of their last five games following this past Tuesday’s 51-47 victory against NC State as 7 ½-point road favorite. They are an even 6-6 ATS at home this season as part of an overall record of 14-9 ATS. Virginia remains the No. 1 defense in the nation in points allowed (50.5), but the loss of junior guard Justin Anderson with a broken finger has taken a pretty big chunk out of an offensive effort that was already ranked well down the list with 66.9 PPG. He was averaging 13.4 PPG while shooting 48 percent from the field. The Cavaliers, as a team, are hitting 46.2 percent of their shots from the floor.
Betting Trends
-- The Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games following a SU win.
-- The Cavaliers have gone 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played at home.
-- The home team has covered ATS in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between the two. This series is tied 2-2 SU and ATS in the last four meetings.
By David Schwab
Mismatches in conference play happen almost every day during the men’s college basketball season, but bettors that like to go with heavy chalk are obviously only concerned with the favorite’s ability to cover the spread. This Saturday’s slate features two high-profile matchups that fit the bill starting with No. 1 Kentucky playing host to South Carolina in the SEC. The second mismatch takes us to the ACC where Wake Forest will go on the road to square off against No. 2 Virginia.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats (ESPN, 2 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Kentucky -19
The Gamecocks have posted just three straight-up wins in the SEC this season against eight losses and they have been even worse against the spread with a record of 1-10. They are 2-5 ATS this season as underdogs and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games. The one ray of hope to keeping this game close is a defensive effort that is holding opposing teams to an average of 61.3 points per game. Offensively, a pair of sophomore guards in Sindarius Thornwell and Duane Notice has led the way with a combined 22.5 PPG, but both are hitting fewer than 40 percent of their shots from the field.
Kentucky continues to roll through the regular season with 24 straight wins, but it has been a drain on the bankroll lately after failing to cover in its last five outings with the total going OVER in each game. The Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games as double-digit favorites and 3-8 ATS in conference play. There is no doubt that the pressure to run the table continues to build, but Kentucky remains the most dominant team in the nation. Its offense is averaging 73.5 PPG with seven different player averaging at least seven points. This complements a smothering defense that is ranked second in the nation in points allowed (52.2).
Betting Trends
-- The Gamecocks are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record and they have failed to cover in their last five road games. The total has stayed UNDER in 13 of their last 16 games played on the road.
-- The Wildcats have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record. The total has stayed UNDER in 20 of their last 28 games at home.
-- The favorite in this series has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 games. Kentucky has won seven of the last eight contests SU including a 58-43 victory as a 12-point road favorite in the first meeting this season on Jan. 24.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons vs. No. 2 Virginia Cavaliers (ESPN3, 2:30 p.m. ET)
Opening Odds: Virginia -17 ½
Wake Forest comes into Saturday’s game fresh off a solid 72-70 upset over Miami as a 2 ½-point home underdog this past Wednesday. It is now 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in its last four ACC games after starting conference play with just one SU win in its first seven matchups. The total has gone OVER in eight of its last 11 games. The Demon Deacons are averaging a respectable 71.2 PPG, but they are hitting just 42.4 percent of their shots from the field. Junior guard Codi Miller-McIntyre leads the team in scoring with 14.2 PPG and junior forward Devin Thomas is pulling down a team-high 9.6 rebounds a game.
The Cavaliers have failed to cover in four of their last five games following this past Tuesday’s 51-47 victory against NC State as 7 ½-point road favorite. They are an even 6-6 ATS at home this season as part of an overall record of 14-9 ATS. Virginia remains the No. 1 defense in the nation in points allowed (50.5), but the loss of junior guard Justin Anderson with a broken finger has taken a pretty big chunk out of an offensive effort that was already ranked well down the list with 66.9 PPG. He was averaging 13.4 PPG while shooting 48 percent from the field. The Cavaliers, as a team, are hitting 46.2 percent of their shots from the floor.
Betting Trends
-- The Demon Deacons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a SU winning record and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in five of their last seven games following a SU win.
-- The Cavaliers have gone 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 home games and they are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss ATS. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games played at home.
-- The home team has covered ATS in the last four meetings and the total has stayed UNDER in six of the last eight games between the two. This series is tied 2-2 SU and ATS in the last four meetings.