Saturday's Early Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards
**Kentucky at South Carolina**
-- South Carolina, Kentucky and LSU are in a three-way tie for first place in the SEC standings with identical 8-3 records. They lead a pair of teams in Texas A&M and Florida, both of whom are one game behind with 7-4 league ledgers. As of early Friday afternoon, one offshore book had tabbed the Wildcats as 1.5-point road favorites.
-- The national media has seemingly been slow to recognize what South Carolina (21-3 straight up, 16-5 against the spread) is accomplishing in Frank Martin’s fourth year at the helm. I must admit that I thought Martin would get USC’s basketball fortunes turned around much sooner, but the Gamecocks have yet to taste a postseason bid of any sort since his arrival. That’s about to change, however. Yes, USC played a weak non-conference schedule, one that ranks No. 322 in the country. Furthermore, USC has played just one game against an RPI Top-25 foe and four against Top-50 opponents. Therefore, the Gamecocks weren’t even ranked coming into this week.
-- Loyal readers know how I feel about college basketball rankings. They’re dead to me. The only ranking system of any merit is the one released by the committee on Selection Sunday. If there’s any poll to pay attention to this time of year, I would say it’s KenPom or the RPI. Nevertheless, we’ll note that USC will enter the national rankings if it can knock off Kentucky at home Saturday.
-- South Carolina captured a 94-83 win Wednesday over LSU as a 4.5-point home favorite. The 177 combined points soared ‘over’ the 153.5-point total. Sindarius Thornwell was the catalyst with 24 points, six rebounds, five assists, one steal and one blocked shot. Michael Carrera added 16 points, six boards and three steals, while Duane Notice scored 15 points thanks to 4-of-8 shooting from behind the 3-point arc. P.J. Dozier contributed 12 points, including several key buckets at winning time.
-- South Carolina is unbeaten in 13 home games with a stellar 8-2 spread record.
-- Carrera leads USC in scoring (14.2 points per game) and rebounding (7.2 RPG).
-- Kentucky (18-6 SU, 11-13 ATS) responded to back-to-back losses at Kansas (in overtime) and at Tennessee (after leading by 21 at one point) by smashing Florida and Georgia in consecutive contests at Rupp Arena. UF went into Lexington last Saturday and was throttled by an 80-61 count as a seven-point road underdog. Jamal Murray dropped 35 points on the Gators thanks to 8-of-10 shooting from downtown. Tyler Ulis added 18 points, 11 assists, four rebounds and a pair of steals.
-- John Calipari’s squad is a youthful one, which is to say that it struggles mightily on the road. As a matter of fact, the Wildcats have lost five of seven road games both SU and ATS.
-- Murray is averaging a team-best 18.5 PPG. The freshman shooting guard is hitting 40.2 percent of his attempts from 3-point range. Ulis, the dynamic sophomore point guard, is scoring at a 16.2 PPG clip and has a 148/44 assists-to-turnovers ratio.
-- Alex Poythress had minor knee surgery earlier this week and will miss the next two weeks. Poythress is averaging 10.0 points and 6.6 rebounds per game for the ‘Cats.
-- The ‘over’ is 11-10 overall for USC, 7-3 in its home games.
-- Totals have been an overall wash for UK (12-12). The ‘over’ is 4-3 in its seven road tilts.
-- Tip-off is slated for noon Eastern on ESPN.
**Purdue at Michigan**
-- These schools are tied for fourth in the Big Ten standings with identical 8-4 league records. They are two games back of the conference’s co-leaders, Indiana, Iowa and Maryland, who are all 10-2 in Big Ten play. As of early Friday afternoon, one offshore shop had Purdue listed as a one-point road favorite.
-- Purdue (20-5 SU, 12-9 ATS) is No. 18 in the RPI, going 3-3 versus the Top 50 and 7-4 against the Top 100. The Boilermakers own quality wins at Pitt, vs. Michigan State and vs. Florida on a neutral court. They also have home scalps over Vanderbilt, Michigan and Ohio State in addition to a road win at Wisconsin. They have one loss outside of the Top 100, falling 84-70 at Illinois.
-- Purdue owns a 4-3 SU record and a 3-4 ATS mark in seven road assignments this season.
-- Purdue could be in a bit of a letdown spot here after winning an 82-81 decision over Michigan State in overtime Tuesday night. The Boilermakers failed to cover the number as three-point favorites, and those gamblers had to be livid with the Spartans for inexplicably opting not to foul when A.J. Hammons gathered a loose ball in traffic with several seconds remaining. The total was a nail-biter as well. A Purdue layup with 1:04 remaining in regulation created a 72-72 tie and sent the score ‘over’ the 143.5-point total.
-- Purdue blew a 16-point halftime lead against Michigan State Senior guard Rapheal Davis had 19 first-half points, but he went 1-of-12 from the field in the second half and the extra session. However, with the game tied in the closing seconds, Davis drove to his left and MSU star Denzel Valentine opted not to go under a ball screen and bumped Davis with 4.6 seconds remaining. In the double bonus, Davis made the first free throw before missing the second, which led to the loose-ball scramble won by Hammons. Speaking of the senior seven-footer, Hammons produced 19 points, 13 rebounds and eight blocked shots. Valentine countered with 27 points, 10 assists and eight boards in the losing effort.
-- Hammons is averaging 14.7 points, 8.2 rebounds and 2.7 blocked shots per game.
-- Michigan (18-7 SU, 12-11 ATS) is 11-3 SU and 6-7 ATS at Crisler Arena in Ann Arbor.
-- Michigan’s season has been hampered by injuries. Senior PG Spike Albrecht, who had the unforgettable performance in the first half of the national-title game against Louisville three seasons ago, was forced to retire in early December due to a hip injury. Caris LeVert, the team’s star who is listed as ‘doubtful’ Saturday vs. Purdue, hasn’t played since Dec. 30 due to a leg injury. In the first 14 games, LeVert was averaging 17.6 points, 5.4 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game.
-- Michigan is No. 60 in the RPI, limping to a 2-7 record against the Top 50. To their credit, the Wolverines haven’t lost any games to foes outside of the Top 50, but they’re still in dire need of multiple signature victories in order to be considered for an at-large bid.
-- Michigan is mired in a 2-6 ATS slump. John Beilein’s squad avoided a three-game losing streak (SU) by knocking off Minnesota by an 82-74 count Wednesday night at The Barn. The Wolverines took the cash as seven-point road favorites. Derrick Walton Jr. paced the winners with 26 points, eight rebounds, seven assists and a pair of steals. Walton drained 5-of-8 attempts from 3-point range.
-- Walton is averaging team-highs in scoring (12.3 PPG), rebounding (5.7 RPG), assists (4.0 APG) and steals (1.6 SPG).
-- Purdue owns a 6-0-1 spread record in its last seven games against Michigan. When they met in West Lafayette on Jan. 7, Purdue cruised to an 87-70 victory as a nine-point home ‘chalk.’ Hammons led the way with 17 points and four blocks, while Davis finished with 16 points, five rebounds and six assists without a turnover. Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman had a game-high 25 points for Michigan.
-- The ‘over’ is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings between these Big Ten rivals.
-- The ‘over’ is 16-7 overall for the Wolverines this year, 20-7 dating back to last season. They have seen the ‘over’ hit at an 8-4 clip at home.
-- The ‘under’ is 11-10 overall for Purdue, 4-3 in its road contests.
-- Tip-off is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.
**Kansas at Oklahoma**
-- Not only is this a rematch of the best regular-season game of the year to date, it’s also a showdown for Big 12 supremacy. Kansas owns an amazing streak of 11 consecutive Big 12 regular-season championships. The 2015-2016 title won’t be decided Saturday, but it is certainly a crucial contest for those purposes. KU, OU and West Va. are currently in a first-place tie with 8-3 records. Five teams are separated by merely one game, as Baylor and Texas are also in the mix with 7-4 ledgers. One offshore had OU as a 4.5-point home ‘chalk’ as of early Friday afternoon.
-- When these teams met in Lawrence on Jan. 4, KU captured a 109-106 win in triple overtime. The Sooners covered the number, however, as seven-point underdogs. Perry Ellis scored 27 points and grabbed 13 rebounds for the winners. Devonte’ Graham finished with 22 points and seven boards, while Wayne Selden Jr. contributed 21 points. Frank Mason had 15 points, seven rebounds, six assists and three steals. For the Sooners, Buddy Hield scored a game-high 46 points to go with eight rebounds and seven assists. The Wooden Award favorite knocked down 8-of-15 from beyond the arc. Jordan Woodard played all 50 minutes and tallied 27 points and seven assists, while Ryan Spangler had 14 points and 18 boards.
-- Oklahoma (20-3 SU, 10-11 ATS) is undefeated in 12 home games with a 5-5 spread record.
-- Hield is second in the nation and tops in the Big 12 with his 25.7 PPG average. Cousins (13.6 PPG) averages 4.6 RPG, buries 46.8 percent of his treys and has an outstanding 105/43 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Cousins and Hield have 32 steals apiece.
-- Kansas (20-4 SU, 14-8 ATS) is 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road.
-- Since losing at Iowa State on Jan. 25, Bill Self’s squad has won four consecutive games both SU and ATS, including Tuesday’s 75-65 win over West Va. as a seven-point home favorite. Ellis led the way with 21 points, while Landen Lucas contributed nine points, 16 rebounds and four blocked shots.
-- Kansas has only been an underdog once this year, losing 85-72 in Ames to the Cyclones.
-- Ellis paces KU in scoring (16.9 PPG), rebounding (6.5 RPG) and field-goal percentage (53.0%).
-- The ‘under’ is 14-7 overall for the Jayhawks, 5-1 in their road games.
-- The ‘over’ is 13-8 overall for OU, 7-3 in its home outings.
-- ESPN will have the broadcast at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
-- Florida will take on Alabama at 5:30 p.m. Eastern in a key SEC showdown. The Crimson Tide moved up to No. 39 in the RPI on the heels of Wednesday’s 63-62 home win over Texas A&M. Avery Johnson’s team now owns four wins over Top 50 teams and three over Top 25 clubs. In addition, the Tide has a non-conference win over Clemson, and it has only one bad loss (at Auburn). In other words, a win at Florida on Saturday puts Alabama very much in the thick of the bubble conversation. Meanwhile, Florida is in decent shape with its No. 25 RPI rating, but it can certainly use a Top-50 scalp over Alabama. The ‘over’ is on a 6-2 run in UF’s last eight games. The Gators have seen the ‘over’ go 8-3 in their 11 lined home contests.
-- Houston’s Robert Gray Jr. is ‘out’ Saturday against UCF with a sprained ankle. Gray (17.3 PPG) will miss his fourth straight game.
-- Nebraska’s best player Shavon Shields (concussion) is ‘questionable’ for Saturday’s home game against Penn State Shields averages 15.7 points, 5.0 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game.
-- The ‘over’ has cashed at a lucrative 14-5-1 overall clip for the Cornhuskers, who have seen the ‘over’ go 7-3 in their home games.
-- Did you catch the end of Boise State at Colorado State late Wednesday night? If not, we have a legit candidate for Bad Beat of the Year and a nominee for a Bad Beat All-Timer. BSU had the ball at halfcourt with 0.8 seconds remaining in the first overtime. Anthony Drmic inbounded to James Webb III, who initially cut to the basket for a lob that wasn’t there. Therefore, he broke back towards the ball and sprinted to the wing, where Drmic hit him in stride. Webb caught, elevated and released in one fluid motion and kissed home the game winner off the glass. The shot was a 3-pointer that would’ve give the Broncos a win by three. The line closed at 3.5, but some gamblers may have bought the half-point to three and some books spent time with the line at three at various points Wednesday. Also, trailing by two at intermission, BSU was a three-point ‘chalk’ for second-half bets, meaning Boise State -1 adjusted for those bettors (hand raised). The ball was clearly in the air as the clock was at 0.2, 0.1 and then all zeros. There wasn’t even anything to review! Nevertheless, the Mountain West refs went to the scorer’s table and…(check this out) determined the clock (operated by the home team!) didn’t start quick enough. Now here’s where things got real interesting. These refs decided to break out a stopwatch and time what happened on their own. (THEY DID WHAT?!?!) From there, the refs determined that Webb took too much time to release the game winner and, therefore, the game was headed toward double overtime (even though nearly all of the CSU fans had already exited the building). You know what’s next – CSU scored the first nine points of double OT and won, 97-93.
