Saturday 12/12/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Army vs. Navy

Bowl season is just around the corner, but there's one more game to take care of first: the annual Army-Navy Game. The No. 21 Navy Midshipmen (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS) will host the Army Black Knights (2-9 SU, 4-6-1 ATS) this Saturday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia with Navy laying 22 points at press time.

Navy is in full command of this rivalry, winning each of the last 13 games with a 8-5 record at the betting window. However, the Black Knights have covered three of the past four games including last year handed +16.6 points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

If you are a horse racing fan and looking for a job Santa Anta has an offer for you. They are searching for a new announcer, and they are encouraging anyone to apply for the position.

Trevor Denman, who has called the races at The Great Race Place since 1983 announced his retirement and will not be behind the mic when the meeting opens on Dec. 26.

In the meantime, Frank Mirahmadi and Michael Wrona will share the announcer duties at Santa Anita for the next few months. Mirahmadi resigned from a nice gig at Oaklawn Park to move back to Southern California and is the likely frontrunner for the permanent job.

“Santa Anita is one of the most unique tracks in the world and the voice of Santa Anita should be just as unique,” said Joe Morris, SVP West Coast Operations for the Stronach Group. “We owe it to our fans to find the right person to set the tone for our next generation of fans. We welcome submissions from around the country and around the world. Trevor Denman went from being a 30-year-old unknown track announcer from South Africa to the most recognized voice in the racing world. Santa Anita is the place to make a career.”

Announcers interested in being considered as the next Voice of The Great Race Place should email a cover letter, resume and demo clip to thevoice@santaanita.com.

Perhaps TVG could make this job hunt into a reality television show.

I was surprised to see the races taken off the turf at Gulfstream Park yesterday, but we have had no rain and two of the stakes this afternoon are carded for the grass, and we should be good to go.

The 11-race card gets underway at 12:05 ET and the $100,000 Rampart (G3) was carded as the third race. Trainer Martin Wolfson sends out a trio of runners in Cali Star (3-1), Curlin’s Princess (12-1) and Best Behavior (5-2) but I think we have a good shot of seeing an upset.

The feature at Aqueduct is the $100,000 Bay Ridge with a field of eight state breds lining up on the inner track with the Todd Pletcher trained Temper Mint Patty the 2-1 morning line favorite.

The weather looks great in the Big Apple as we could see a record high temperature in the 60’s by post time for the opener.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:05 ET)
#5 Majesto 5-2
#6 Gettysburg 3-1
#8 Neolithis 7-2
#7 Buon Gusto 8-1

Analysis: Majesto prompted the early pace from the outside and finished evenly in a third place finish in his debut for the Delgado barn. He comes back here off a two-month break and for a barn that is 17% winners with second out maidens. This guy has six sibs that are winners including a pair of stakes winners, top earner Overanalyze ($1 million).

Gettysburg was bumped early and not a threat in a ninth place finish in his debut, a chilly 14-1 in the betting considering he is a Pletcher runner. He was a $425,000 Keeneland purchase and has been prepping at Palm Beach Downs. Willing to give him another look here and Castellano sticks.

Wagering
WIN: #5 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 5,6,7,8
TRI: 5,6 / 5,6,7,8 / 5,6,7,8,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Bay Ridge (3:50 ET)
#1 Carameaway 8-1
#8 Temper Mint Patty 2-1
#3 Flipcup 5-2
#6 Sheriffa 6-1

Analysis: Carameaway set the early fractions in the state bred Empire Distaff Handicap and faded to finish a well beaten eighth last out, but caught a racing strip at Belmont Park that was playing to outside stalkers and closers that day. Two back this mare chased the early pace and held on well for the runner up spot in the state bred Jack Betta Be Rite at Finger Lakes. She was eighth in this race last year but has run well on the inner track, landing in the exacta in five of her other nine trips including a second and a third in stakes company. She owns solid early and mid pace numbers and draws the rail. Worth a look if she goes off near her 8-1 morning line.

Temper Mint Patty set the early fractions in the Comely (G3) and faded to finish seventh at 15-1 last out. She does not do her best running on the lead and came from off the pace to run a good second two back in the Empire Distaff. Three back she was a good second in the Charles Town Oaks (G2). The Todd Pletcher barn has been hot both her and in Florida recently, but this gal has never raced on the inner track.

Flipcup took the Maple Leaf (G3) last out for back to back wins on poly at Woodbine. She was a disappointing ninth in this race last year but is coming in here in much better form. Her win on the inner track here was the state bred East View back in 2013.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 1,8 / 1,3,6,8
TRI: 1,8 / 1,3,6,8 / 1,3,4,6,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 11 The El Prado (5:05 ET)
#1 Aztec Brave 6-1
#5 Tower of Texas 4-1
#11 War Correspondent 3-1
#10 Reporting Star 5-1

Analysis: Aztec Brave just missed last out in the Artie Schiller where the gelding was caught at the wire over yielding ground at the Big A. He has run solid numbers that include a pair of triple digit Beyers in his last five starts. He draws the rail and has some early zip while two of his main foes including the likely favorite have to break from the far outside with a short run to the first turn.

Tower of Texas stalked the early pace and weakened to finish seventh last out in the Woodbine Mile (G1). Two back he was a game second beaten a nose in the Play the King (G2) at seven furlongs. He only has one win on turf, taking the King Edward (G2) back in June in his turf debut. He faces easier here dropping out of Grade 1 company.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,10,11
TRI: 1,5 / 1,5,10,11 / 1,4,5,10,11

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R3: #1 Tug of War 8-1
R5: #5 Sir Macho 8-1
R6: #6 Utopian 8-1
R6: #8 Grandpa Len 8-1
R7: #8 Integrity 12-1
R8: #1 Carameaway 8-1
R9: #5 Guaranteed 12-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 89 - Purse:$6500 - NON-WINNERS $7,500 IN LAST 5 STARTS, NON-WINNERS LAST 3 ALLOWED $1,000 AE: N/W $1000 IN 2015


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 2 CHANCELLORCULLEN N 5/1


# 5 MURDER HE WROTE 5/1


# 3 RUSSLEY RASCAL N 12/1


We've got a feeling CHANCELLORCULLEN N is going to get the victory. This horse has been going to post versus some of the most competitive horses in this field of horses these days. Had one of the most competitive speed ratings of the field of horses in his last outing. I'd recommend using in your wagers. The consortium always likes a proven performer. This horse's high winning stat is confirmation of that. MURDER HE WROTE - This horse looks dangerous. Look at the 92 average speed fig. Really strong driver/trainer, winning 30 percent of the time. Seems to be a solid wager. RUSSLEY RASCAL N - Cannot put a finger on it, but like this gelding for a wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 9:00 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 70 - Purse:$3200 - HORSES & GELDINGS - CLAIMING $5000.


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 RUTHLESS ACE 6/1


# 8 LIS DEO 3/1


# 9 P L GYRO 8/5


All signs point to RUTHLESS ACE for the pick. Might be there at a nice price tag. Quite possibly one to keep in your exotics. Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a nifty 74 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Seems to have a formidable class advantage based on the field of horses he has faced. LIS DEO - Worth considering today if only for the very nice speed rating achieved in the last race. Carroll has been en fuego over the last 30 days, winning at a formidable 24 percent. P L GYRO - May provide us a triumph based on nice recent speed figures - earning an average of 72. The knowledge group gives this interesting entrant a competitive chance to take this race, class ratings are tops in the field of starters.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 13 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $40000 Class Rating: 80

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 13 BIBLICAL STRENGTH 6/1


# 9 SO HAPPY 8/1


# 10 POWER AND GRACE 10/1


I've got to go with BIBLICAL STRENGTH. Has been racing very well and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Had one of the strongest Equibase speed figs of this group of horses in this race in his last race. Murrill has strong numbers that point to this gelding to be a solid contender. SO HAPPY - Should go to the front end and might never look back. This gelding has to be given a chance just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Zia Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 71

FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MAGIC COIN 7/2


# 3 RESTLESS GENERAL 9/2


# 8 QUICK TIME 6/1


MAGIC COIN has a very strong shot to take this race. Looks strong against this field and ought to be one of the leaders. This gelding has posted some nice finish positions in his last couple of tries. He has a good opportunity for this race as conditioner, Fincher, has sharp win rate with horses going this distance. RESTLESS GENERAL - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding. I can't pass on this gelding given one of the best jock and trainer combos on the grounds. QUICK TIME - Boasts sound Equibase Speed Figs on average overall when compared with the rest of this field.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #5 - Post: 2:13pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 TOUCH OF BLING (ML=5/2)
#6 WHEREBLUEBIRDSFLY (ML=3/1)
#3 A WING AND A SONG (ML=6/1)


TOUCH OF BLING - This is a classic 'Lone Front-runner' scenario. If Gryder gets him out of the gate cleanly it'll likely be smooth sailing. Looking at today's class figure, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier bunch than last time around the track at Churchill Downs. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a sharp effort within the last 30 days. I like the piece of information that this filly's last fig, 83, is tops in this field. WHEREBLUEBIRDSFLY - I like to play this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid race within the last 30 days. Strong return on investment for this jock and conditioner twosome. This animal is number one in EPS (earnings per start). She looks solid in today's event. A WING AND A SONG - The jockey and handler combination have a lucrative ROI when they partner up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GIA ALEXA (ML=9/2), #8 LIANA STAR (ML=9/2), #2 TIMNA (ML=8/1),

GIA ALEXA - Not likely for this thoroughbred to make a winning move with no success lately in a short distance affair. LIANA STAR - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a sprint race in the last sixty days. Not the best of omens. TIMNA - I'm predicting a lackluster go of it out of her this time.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 TOUCH OF BLING to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
5 with [3,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [3,5,6] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Golden Gate Fields - Race #5 - Post: 2:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,000 Class Rating: 72

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 ELEGANT MARGARET (ML=8/1)
#2 DERVISH (ML=3/1)


ELEGANT MARGARET - I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough efforts since the layoff and should be fit. The jockey and trainer combination here have a high win percentage when they team up. Horse has improved at least 2 speed rating points in last 2 races. I look for that positive trend to continue in this event. Finished off the board last out at Golden Gate Fields, but was within 5 lengths of the winner. Opening at 8/1 makes me think she's got a chance. DERVISH - This jockey and trainer have a lucrative return on investment when they partner up. Look at this pattern of improvement. 67/72/79 are the last three speed figs. Has a good chance to break maiden switching to the dirt in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ANALYSIS PARALYSIS (ML=7/2), #1 FOREVER DOROTHY (ML=4/1), #6 HALO INDYGO (ML=5/1),

ANALYSIS PARALYSIS - 7/2 is not offering enough value for any mount in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair lately. FOREVER DOROTHY - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of her last couple of outings. HALO INDYGO - If you keep selecting these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be disappointed most of the time. Multiple efforts for this runner at Golden Gate Fields and still hasn't received her first victory here.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - DERVISH - Comparing last speed ratings in this field, nobody beats this filly. Tops in the field with a last speed rating of 79 on October 31st.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #8 ELEGANT MARGARET to win if you can get at least 5/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:50 PM EASTERN POST


The Bay Ridge Stakes

8½ FURLONGS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#3 FLIPCUP
#6 SHERIFFA
#8 TEMPER MINT PATTY
#4 SAYTHREEHAILMARY'S

For you folks who are unfamiliar with New York City "Geography" ... Bay Ridge is a neighborhood in the southwest corner of the New York City borough of Brooklyn. It is bounded by Sunset Park on the north, Dyker Heights on the east, the Narrows and the Belt Parkway on the west, and the Verrazano Bridge on the south. Here in just the 2nd running of this stakes test for New York Breds ... #3 FLIPCUP has hit the board in each of her last four outings, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts. #6 SHERIFFA, a 6-1 shot, has won half of her 6 career starts to date racing at, or about, 8½ furlongs on the "dirt," with each of those three "Circle Trips" coming in her last five starts!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Balmoral: Saturday 12/12 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Race 9 - $20,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (52 - 86 / $182.40): MY BUDDY NINKSTER (9th)

Spot Play: LIL AL BUNDY (8th)


Race 1

(9) JEWEL MAKER two-year-old comes off a really nice qualifier and gets sent out for a trainer known for having them ready when they hit the track. (8) MICRO FORCE lightly raced pacer finds a weak and inconsistent field and has plenty of room to improve. (7) SPIRIT IN THE SKY raced gamely last week but is probably best used underneath for a low percentage pilot.

Race 2

(8) LOLLIPOP has been sharp for a new barn and looks to have more in the tank. (6) COLORFUL SKY could need a start having been off a month but the filly pacer faces weaker and owns good closing ability; driver's choice. (5) GOSSIP MODEL filly faces tougher but has been very competitive in all her races.

Race 3

(3) BIG EXPENSE nice looking trotter makes his second start for new connections and will look to make it 8 of 13 on the year. (4) CERTAINLY didn't have as much pop last week as the start prior but the gelding owns a big burst of speed. (2) PINSTRIPE PLAYER should be in line for a ground saving trip against a slightly softer bunch.

Race 4

In a weak and inconsistent field, (2) WESTERN SLAMMER has lacked pop late in his last few and could use a good setup. (7) RICHESS NESTOR probably needed his last start off the scratch; threat. (1) CAPTAIN OBVIOUS could be the sleeper in the race with a fast pace to close into.

Race 5

(7) THE DALI'S LLAMA owns only one win on the year but should find this spot easier. (5) BEST OF DUNE will offer a big price and flashed a decent burst last week before the miscue. (2) BIG FOOTED BUTCH lightly raced pacer has room to move forward off a nice effort.

Race 6

(4) PARTY FALLS freshman pacer faces older but has the most upside in the race along with a good late brush. (2) SAY IT AINT SO gets a good starting post against a weaker bunch; threat. (9) TWINKLE LIKE ASTAR makes his second start for new connections and should improve.

Race 7

(2) MAJOR WAY drops down to the bottom level and will be used aggressively. (4) BOHEMIA has excuses in his last two and is a threat with a smooth trip. (7) BET ON HIM needed his last start and raced gamely.

Race 8

(8) LIL AL BUNDY beat a better bunch at the track when last seen here. (6) FOX VALLEY ANDY has just been racing evenly but can threaten with a decent setup. (1) B R FLYING DALI was an easy winner last start against softer; threat.

Race 9

(1) MY BUDDY NINKSTER rode the rail last week before finishing with a ton of late pace; driver's choice. (4) BNGS EXPRESS pacer has been ultra sharp but his driver opted elsewhere. The 3-year-old should offer another big price and shouldn't be left off your tickets. (6) FEELNLIKEAROCKSTAR drops down and can get a piece with a trouble-free trip.

Race 10

(8) RYLEIGH'S LILLY has been very inconsistent the last part of the season, however if the 5-year-old is ready they probably can't hold her off late. (10) TIMMYLYNN has been off over a month but gets sent out first start in a more than capable barn. (4) FEEL LIKE DANCING has had another great season and has been knocking on the door in recent.

Race 11

In a wide open and evenly matched race, (5) DELIGHT FASHION owns a win at this level and should offer a good price coming off a miscue. (6) VALIENTE STRIDE wasn't far off to a nice opponent last out; threat. (2) MASTER OF DESIRE has yet to prove himself on the big track but has been knocking on the door against similar.

Race 12

(2) UNCLE BUD pacer faces significantly weaker and will be very tough to beat; short price. (5) FOX VALLEY GEORGE dropped and popped last week at a price. The pacer doesn't win often but could be one of few threats to the top choice. (7) MADEOFF put in a nice effort last week but will need more against better; use underneath.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 12/12 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 3/3/3,4,5,6,8/5,9,10/1,2,6,7 = $12

EARLY PICK 4: 5,9,10/1,2,6,7/4,5,8/1,6 = $72

LATE PICK 4: 1,4/7,8/2,6/4,7 = $16

MEET STATS: 137 - 420 / $719.00 BEST BETS: 21 - 38 / $73.20

SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 38 / 105.80

Best Bet: CAJON LIGHTNING (2nd)

Spot Play: MAKE SOME LUCK (9th)


Race 1

(3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has been flawless racing out of Moreau's barn and outclasses this bunch. It's hard to see him getting beat, but he will be a prohibitive favorite here. (2) NATURESCAPE was closing quickly at the end of his mile last week and is coming to hand quickly after taking most of the summer off. (1) ROCKINONBY figures to get a good following trip and stick around for a share here.

Race 2

(3) CAJON LIGHTNING was a force in the Autumn series and lays over this group in the 1st leg of the Valedictory series. It looks like a very chalky Daily Double to kick off this card. (4) THE ROCK passed 1/2 the field in the last 1/4 last week and looks solid to complete this exacta. (2) SHADES OF BAY was a game winner in his first Woodbine start and should share here.

Race 3

(3) AMERICAN ROCK faces better off a sharp win last week cut could be up to it. Moreau and Filion have owned Saturday night this month. (6) SHOCK N ROCK has raced well twice against tough winners since arriving in November. He has a big shot here. (4) MCKINNEY took a new life's mark last week now curiously adds Lasix. Toss him on your Pick 5 ticket.

Race 4

(5) HIT AND GIGGLE A drops in for a tag here and should be prominent throughout. (9) VEGAS ROCKS also faces easier and will be blasting looking for the front, no doubt. (10) CHEYENNE REIDER is hard to leave out at this class, even from post 10.

Race 5

(7) MUSICAL RHYTHM was not asked at any point of the mile after making the front last time and still won easily. He should be tough to beat here. (3) SILVERHILL VOLO has shown he can take a lot of air and keep coming. He is the main threat. (6) KEN KAN WIN switched trainers, made some equipment changes and won his last start. Now the former trainer takes over again after that one start; head scratcher.

Race 6

(4) PUTMEINTOGO takes a big class drop here and should improve dramatically as should (8) KISS ME OR NOT who faced the same field as the choice last time. (5) LIGHTS GO OUT also faces easier and should be a late threat.

Race 7

(6) NICKLE BAG raced very tough last week in a quick mile against several class droppers. He looks best here. (1) ERLE DALE N showed little from an outer post last week but is in with a shot here at a price from the inside. (9) APPRENTICE HANOVER is the class of the field but may need one or two before producing his best considering he has been laid up since summer.

Race 8

(4) DONTTELLRUSS moves into the hot Waxman barn shipping in and should be a top contender here the only concern being the time missed. (1) D GS PESQUERO drops, moves inside and should get an aggressive steer from Drury here. (9) KAYLA GRACE is a good one to use in the exotics at a price from the outside. She will be passing horses down the lane.

Race 9

(8) MAKE SOME LUCK was used hard first-over vs. tougher last week and hung in gamely. Jamieson will be looking to take these coast-to-coast. (7) TRACK MASTER D drops out of the same race and should show improvement here. (9) EXPLODENT has ripped off five straight wins in Pennsylvania now ships in off the claim. His sharp form can't be ignored.

Race 10

(6) RISE UP NOW got stuck behind stalling cover on the final turn last week which led to his demise. He faces easier here and should be right there. (2) NIRVANA SEELSTER was as game as they come last week and is the one to beat here. (5) PUSH BACK is always a threat from close range but is more likely for a minor share here with the top two signed on.

Race 11

(7) STAR COVER had some late pace last week, closing behind a winner that was taking a new life's mark. The first time this gelding gets sent to the front he will lead throughout; maybe tonight? (4) UFDRAGONS ROCKET put forth a solid first-over effort last time vs. a couple of tough veterans. He's dangerous here. (5) WARAWEE PHOENIX has raced well out of town the past month and can get a piece of this. (6) KINMUNDYS STRYKER has raced great lately in the top classes at the 'B' tracks and fits well here. (3) ROCKABELLA ships in with decent from and can make the High-5 ticket.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 12/12 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 36 - 103 / $208.80 BEST BETS: 3 - 8 / $10.20

Best Bet: CAPOZZO (7th)

Spot Play: COCOCABANA (2nd)


Race 1

(2) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP appeared to be purposely driven conservatively and faced a bit of stretch traffic last time. In his fourth start back from a long layoff, I’d expect he is just about ready to shine. (3) BETTOR THAN YOU raced well off the bench and should improve with that start under his belt. (7) BLATANTLY BEST was sharp on the drop-down last time but unfortunately drew into a tough race this week. (1) BENJAMINBANNEKER N was a winner at this level two starts back.

Race 2

(8) COCOACABANA was trapped behind a wall of horses last week and now we get a switch to a catch-driver. If she minds her manners this daughter of Chocolatier can get the job done. (2) ONE DIRECTION finally got moving in the right direction with a solid rally from the back last time. In a field lacking consistency and an abundance of top form, he looks to have a chance. (7) NATURAL KEMP has raced fairly well since moving into the Julie Miller barn.

Race 3

(1) WEGOTTATRUCKYEA came charging home from the back to just miss by a neck as our top choice at 14-1 (that hurt) two weeks ago. I see some talent in this guy and the price should remain reasonable with (4) RODEO ROMEO in the field. The latter went down the road at this level three starts back and was obviously overmatched versus Wiggle It Jiggleit at Dover. (5) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING picks up Gingras and could do a bit more now.

Race 4

(1) WALLTOCOUSINS finds a good spot back at the Meadowlands and should be hustled away by Joe Bongiorno. (8) KEYSTONE THOMAS keeps rolling along for trainer Spagnola and looks formidable again. (6) MERGATROID has been racing very well for a Svanstedt barn that is having a good fall/winter meet. (4) LADY CLARABELLA should be tighter in her second start off the bench but is facing boys and older foes.

Race 5

(3) STORMIN RUSTLER was a bit better in his second start since August. One more baby step forward should have him right there at the wire. (5) INSANE IN SPAIN was in against a tough group in that ‘G Notes’ final last time. I’d expect a strong effort this week. (2) GIANT SLAYER has put in two straight decent starts and could pop with a big mile soon.

Race 6

(3) JACKSRLUCKYTOO somehow squeezed up the cones to get the job done a week ago. I like what I’ve seen thus far and will keep rolling with him. (6) PISTOLPACKINPIPER has won two straight and looks like the likely favorite. (5) MR CENSI wasn’t quite as good as the line looks last time and I’m not shocked that Bongiorno chose the top choice. That said, he has a obvious chance.

Race 7

(1) CAPOZZO hasn’t been very sharp of late, but don’t discount the importance of switching back to the big track. He has three wins and two seconds in this class at the Meadowlands in 2015 and all but one of his wins this year came here. (7) JET AIRWAY is certainly facing easier foes this week and should be ready for a peak effort in his third start after a year off. (2) PANCHESTER UNITED should flash early speed and make his presence felt.

Race 8

(8) ROCKIN WIZARD continues to race well week after week and gets my narrow call in a race where you may want to spread on your pick four tickets. (4) ITRUSTYOU has a stellar 49 wins in 132 career starts and comes into this race on a two-race winning streak. (1) SHOOTER’S DREAM steps up but is in fine form. (7) BADIX HANOVER finally returns to a more comfortable level after facing Wiggle It Jiggleit in recent starts. He has a legitimate shot despite facing older foes.

Race 9

(9) ESCAPE THE NEWS hasn’t been at the Meadowlands in almost two years but actually owns a strong local record. I can see improvement on the track change alone. (5) RESTLESS NATIVE was claimed back by Russo, so clearly he sees something good in this guy. (6) DANCIN HILL has come back from vacation in good form and is hard to toss. (1) OK GORGEOUS had some life last time and could be ready to find his best game.

Race 10

(4) GIACODELIGHT hasn’t been overly impressive since shipping in, but has kept up nicely and finished with pace. He drops in class tonight for a high percentage barn. (10) DARCEE N seems to have some ability but has trouble going a straight line and staying on gait. (6) MIGHTY PERUVIAN N gets a better post to work with tonight and faces easier.

Race 11

(8) WINDSONG GORGEOUS raced evenly after getting away slowly in his first start since July. This guy loves to win and faces a field he can handle. (9) EARNDAWG lured Callahan off of a Breshnahan-trained horse, which is interesting. We know Spagnola can make them go fast. (4) EASTEND EDDIE isn’t a win candidate for me but should be involved. (6) UF FAST FEELIN is in good form.

Race 12

(3) ALEX BULLVILLE had some serious traffic trouble last time out. It is hard to ever love this guy on the win end, but these are the spots where he usually wakes up. (2) LEGACY N DIAMONDS picks up Brett Miller this week and should be close to the action. (7) SOME MAJOR BEACH hasn’t been very good this year. Maybe Gingras can shake him up?

Race 13

(1) HUNCHIE came up short in the stretch last time; another shot. (10) GRATIAS DEO has been racing well and reunites with Callahan. (7) SMILE A LITTLE raced well at this level last time. (8) IDEAL CARVER has a nice closing kick.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 12/12 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 394 - 1192 / $2,202.00 BEST BETS: 56 - 96 / $196.60

Best Bet: SUPREME MACH N (3rd)

Spot Play: MELMERBY BEACH (6th)


Race 1

(2) SCARLET CHASER isn't exactly a winning machine but he's been good recently and lands inside in a very soft NW12000 field. (1) STONE TREE draws best and will work out a live trip; I couldn't fault anyone for looking in his direction. (3) BOBJACKS ANGLE A has been facing better; threat.

Race 2

(1) SAFE HARBOR has underachieved all year but this looks like a spot to get well. Dube should be sending him hard from this spot. (2) BET THE MOON hung off a good trip from a similar spot two back; use caution. (4) ELECTRIC CHAPEL N is very erratic; Sears drives him tonight and maybe he'll have better results.

Race 3

(2) SUPREME MACH N has looked good since arriving in the U.S. for Jeff Dauplaise and tonight he gets that all-important driver change to Dube; lots to like. (1) LUCKY MCTRUCKY has been decent for Abbatiello and he gets needed post relief. (4) ULTRA SHOK N drops, moves inside a couple of spots and seems capable of better.

Race 4

(2) RURAL ART took money and performed well last week in the 4YO Open; he deserves a long look from this spot despite Sears opting off. (5) FAT MANS ALLEY finally showed life last out and he can build off that effort. (1) TWIN B IMPRESSIVE has had a very nice season and he can add to his bankroll from this inside spot.

Race 5

(2) MAINLAND KEY N had some pace last week despite not being in a good spot; tonight he moves inside and should be much more involved. (3) JD'S CALEB MAN had trouble reaching last out from the tough post but he's back inside where he can do damage. (7) SAM'S ESCAPE has clearly tailed off but he's still capable with this type.

Race 6

(4) MELMERBY BEACH was a well-driven and sharp upset winner last week; 4-year-old has been super since the Annunziata purchase and he can take his third straight despite some tough rivals. (6) ALWAYS AT MY PLACE finally tasted defeat at the hands of the top choice and he'll be forwardly placed again. (5) THE REAL ONE was in the right place at the right time in last week's Open and was a strong and easy winner; does Lachance get aggressive early? If not he's getting away last.

Race 7

(3) FOOL ME ONCE has stayed in saving ground in his last three and finished decently in each effort; I'm curious to see what happens with more aggressive handling. (5) JUSTIFIED has been pacing evenly for Abbatiello but seems capable of better; consider him for some value. (1) REGULUS N has come up short in his last two since returning from Yonkers.

Race 8

(3) UF ROCKIN DRAGON looked primed to mount a serious charge last week but he suffered equipment problems and bolted out wide; give the Mark Ford trainee another look in this wide-open race. (5) ELRAMA N moves in a couple of spots for the Bartlett/Bamond tandem. (1) SOMETHINGINTHEWIND returns locally for Garcia-Herrera and fits well but is off three weeks.

Race 9

(3) CAPITAL ACCOUNT looks to be classified much better in his second return Yonkers start and gets needed post relief as well. (1) TITUS SEELSTER returns from Saratoga off a win and has speed and the best draw. (2) GARNET RIVER A has been racing very well recently and always offers value.

Race 10

(2) MATT MAJOR is up in class and loses the services of Brennan but he's been super since joining the the Rousse barn and he draws well enough here to contend. (4) HI HO STEVERINO threw in a clunker last week but his prior efforts have been good. (8) SPARKY MARK has much to do from out there but he fits with these and is capable with a perfect trip.

Race 11

(3) VILLAGE BEAT rolled right out of the pocket to upset (1) NATIONAL DEBT last week; why not again? The latter really had no excuse to fail at 1/5 and he'll look to rebound. (5) DRUNKEN DESIRE A has been very sharp in all recent; closing threat.

Race 12

(2) TEXICAN N was rolling along on the front end in the Open last week when he suddenly broke; he's right back in to go so I assume all is okay. (7) MACHS BEACH BOY almost overcame a tough trip last out; this may be another tough spot from the poor post. (5) CAROL'S COMET has been live recently and could be in line for a cover trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (5th) Groupthink, 5-1
(6th) Lifes Reward, 7-2


Charles Town (3rd) Dancing Wish, 7-2
(7th) All About Attitude, 4-1


Delta Downs (1st) Fenix On Fire, 7-2
(8th) Pitcher, 6-1


Fair Grounds (8th) Smittys Cougar, 9-2
(13th) Biblical Strength, 6-1


Golden Gate Fields (2nd) Cap Ferrat, 3-1
(8th) Halos Dancer, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (1st) Neolithic, 7-2
(9th) Lori's Store, 6-1


Hawthorne (2nd) Lilly's for Who, 9-2
(8th) Thats Mybuddy Boy, 3-1


Laurel (1st) Kool Kat Strut, 7-2
(2nd) Dixie Deputy, 9-2


Los Alamitos (3rd) Miz Graycee, 5-1
(7th) Xingontothebone, 6-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Crazy Wild Bess, 8-1
(6th) Peach Schnapps, 7-2


Parx Racing (2nd) House Red, 8-1
(7th) Pop Joe, 9-2


Penn National (1st) Olympic Diamond, 9-2
(5th) Decadent Doll, 9-2


Remington Park (4th) Smashbox, 4-1
(8th) Megans Lad, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (6th) Simplistic, 6-1
(10th) Wonforthemoneyhon, 3-1


Turf Paradise (4th) Tribal Money, 5-1
(8th) Pop Music, 3-1


Turfway Park (2nd) All About Brownie, 7-2
(5th) Kiawah's Warrior, 8-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

CELTICS AT HORNETS 7:05 PM

Take: HORNETS -2

If you’re into hot trends, you probably will be very reluctant to bet against the Celtics here. For whatever reason, Boston has been nothing short of remarkable playing the second of back to back games without rest.

After watching their epic battle with the amazing Warriors on Friday evening, all I can say is that if Boston can win this game, it’ll be quite the achievement. That was one incredible duel with Golden State. The Celtics played their tails off for 58 minutes, but all they had to show for their efforts was what amounts to a moral victory, and those don’t count in the standings.

There’s no chance I’m banking on the Celtics just tossing in the towel tonight at Charlotte. They showed what they were made of against the Warriors, and I don’t believe there’s an ounce of quit in this team. But I just don’t know how there can be a whole lot left in either the mental or physical tank tonight, and Boston is now faced with the task of taking on a very hot Hornets entry.

Charlotte actually had to dig out of a deep early hole on Friday night. Memphis came roaring out of the starting gate and led 10-0. The Grizzlies got ahead by as many as 14 before the Hornets came roaring back, and then the visitors completely took over the game. The fourth quarter was basically garbage time as the Hornets ended up blowing out their hosts by 24.

The Hornets have now won four in a row, and they’re 14-5 over their last 19 outings. If they aren’t the biggest surprise team of the young NBA season, I sure don’t know who is. Charlotte has been strong at home and one would think they’re going to be the fresher team by a decent margin tonight.

This is a somewhat obvious play given the circumstances and that’s always a bit worrisome for me, to be honest. But it’s also a play that I feel has to be made at the current tag, so tonight’s Bonus Play is the Hornets minus the small spot.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA

Penn State -8