Saturday 12/12/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hawks (1-8) at Terrapins (8-1)

Date: December 12, 2015 4:15 PM EDT

Maryland's season would be less stressful if it had blown out each of its previous opponents, but coach Mark Turgeon has welcomed the moments of adversity.

There might not be much of it when the sixth-ranked Terrapins host Maryland-Eastern Shore on Saturday.

Maryland (8-1) survived three early close calls against Georgetown, Rider and Illinois State, teams with which it wasn't expected to have much trouble. The only ranked team it has faced - now-No. 3 North Carolina - led most of the way in an 89-81 win Dec. 1.

The Terps rolled to an easy win over St. Francis and held a 20-point first-half lead over Connecticut on Tuesday at Madison Square Garden, but once again they had to hold off an opponent late.

The Huskies cut their deficit to three before Maryland pulled out a 76-66 victory. Melo Trimble scored a season-high 25 points, 14 of them coming at the free-throw line.

Trimble had eight turnovers against the Tar Heels and scored only three points against St. Francis.

'We were as good as we've been all year on defense and with our rebounding,' Turgeon said. 'I'm glad it got close. We will learn more from that situation.'

Maryland held a 45-24 edge on the boards as UConn was undone from shooting 30.4 percent in the first half. It hadn't outrebounded any team by more than seven over its previous seven games and two of its previous three opponents shot over 50 percent.

Turgeon also was pleased with the performance of Diamond Stone, who finished with 16 points for the second straight game and added nine rebounds off the bench. The freshman is shooting 55.1 percent.

'I was really proud of his defense in the first half. In the second half it wasn't that good,' Turgeon said. 'The bigger the lights the better he plays. He's coming and it helps that he has a lot of veteran bigs around him.'

The Terps have struggled at times against lower-level competition, but it would be surprising if they had any problems with Eastern Shore. The Hawks (1-8) are shooting 38.2 percent and averaging 17.1 turnovers while allowing 76.7 points per game.

They're coming off a dismal performance at No. 1 Michigan State on Wednesday, when they shot 21.9 percent and attempted only four free throws in a 78-35 loss.

UMES also was outrebounded 48-31. Although there was little chance of the Hawks beating the nation's top-ranked team, coach Bobby Collins figured his team would be more competitive.

Dominique Elliott was the only Hawk in double figures with 11 points, but he shot 5 of 15.

"We have to get better," Collins said. "I have to do a better job. We will and I will get better, but it's hard to get better against the No. 1 team in the country. They exploited all our weaknesses.

"At the same time, I still expect my team to fight. I still expect them to do what I say and execute and we will get better."

This marks the first meeting since 2012, when Maryland beat the Hawks 100-68.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tar Heels (7-1) at Longhorns (5-3)

Date: December 12, 2015 5:15 PM EDT

(AP) - Shaka Smart's first season at Texas has been anything but sharp.

Excruciatingly long road trips bounced Texas around half the globe's time zones, from China to the Bahamas and back again before Thanksgiving, producing three losses in the first five games.

The Longhorns (5-3) returned home to find paltry crowds coming out to see their new coach and new-look game after years of what might best be described as successful stagnation under former coach Rick Barnes: Good regular seasons followed by postseason flops.

Now Smart faces his first 'big' game with the Longhorns, facing No. 3 North Carolina (7-1) on Saturday. The Tar Heels started the season No. 1 and have their best player, Marcus Paige, back on the court after a preseason injury.

'I think it would be nice to have a win (Saturday) for a lot of reasons, playing one of the best teams in the country, one of the best programs in the country,' Smart said. 'What a win like this would do is build a lot of confidence.'

Smart has been pretty honest in saying his team lacks a lot of 'naturally confident guys' but senses that could be building with a three-game winning streak heading into Saturday.

'I think we still have a ways to go,' Smart said.

There have been glimpses of the 'havoc' pace and pressure Smart used at VCU but it has yet to become a Longhorns' trademark.

North Carolina coach Roy Williams said he's preparing for the aggressive, pressure style Smart is known for.

'I would think it's a change in what they're doing and it's hard to get them where Shaka wants them to be, I'm sure, but it's good enough that we worked press offense (Thursday) and we'll work press offense again (Friday),' Williams said.

Longhorns fans had become bored of the early ousters in the NCAA Tournament. Former athletic director Steve Patterson fired Barnes after another exit last March and hired Smart, the up-and-coming coach at Virginia Commonwealth who had been on just about everyone's short list of candidates the last few years. After spurning previous chances to leave VCU, Smart finally said yes to the Texas offer.

Texas fans have yet to really take notice. Attendance at Tuesday's 116-51 win over Texas-San Antonio was maybe half the official announced crowd of about 9,600.

'That's a heartbreaker,' Longhorns center Cam Ridley said after the game. 'We go to one of the biggest schools in the country.'

Freshman guard Tevin Mack called it 'kind of a letdown.'

Texas expects a much better turnout for the Tar Heels, who have won four in a row since a surprising loss at Northern Iowa.

North Carolina seems to be finding its rhythm after the early stumble. Paige missed the first six games due to a hand injury, but returned to score 20 in a win over No. 2 Maryland. The Tar Heels then romped over previously unbeaten Davidson.

Williams won't call his team ready for the postseason just yet.

'Neither of us have our team where we want them to be,' Williams said.

His team has committed 15 turnovers in back-to-back games and now faces a Texas defense which forces 16.0 per contest while holding opponents to 37.3 percent shooting from the field.

Sophomore Justin Jackson has eight turnovers in the last two games, totaling 24 points in that span after averaging 22.7 in the final three games before Paige returned.

The Longhorns have won six of the past seven meetings, including the last two when they weren't ranked and North Carolina was. Texas won the last meeting 86-83 in Chapel Hill on Dec. 18, 2013, despite Paige's 23 points.

Isaiah Taylor paced the Longhorns that day with 16 points and currently averages a team-leading 13.3, though he's been quiet in the last two games with a combined 10 points. Ridley has stepped up to average 16.5 points on 16-of-22 shooting in those two games.

Ridley is averaging 9.5 rebounds but could have a tough time inside against 6-10 forwards Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks, who each average 13.4 points and combine for 17.2 rebounds per game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bearcats (8-1) at Musketeers (9-0)

Date: December 12, 2015 5:30 PM EDT

Xavier and Cincinnati have had some memorable - and at times contentious - games in one of college basketball's most intense rivalries.

But when the 12th-ranked Musketeers host the No. 23 Bearcats on Saturday, it will be the first time in nearly 22 years the intracity foes meet as ranked teams.

Only once in the previous 83 editions of the Crosstown Shootout have both schools resided in the Top 25, when 22nd-ranked Xavier topped No. 19 Cincinnati 82-76 in overtime on Jan. 19, 1994. With each off to soaring starts, the ramifications have extended beyond mere local bragging rights.

"As a player you live for games like this, so I'm looking forward to it," Cincinnati guard Farad Cobb said.

The Bearcats likely have a little extra motivation in their first visit to Cintas Center since the teams engaged in an ugly on-court brawl near the end of a 76-53 Xavier win in December 2011. Cincinnati has lost six of eight to the Musketeers and was dealt a second straight defeat in the series with a 59-57 setback on Feb. 15.

The 2011 melee, which triggered suspensions for eight participating players, prompted the annual showdown to be held two straight years at downtown Cincinnati's U.S. Bank Arena before returning to campus sites last season.

Reversing the Musketeers' recent success won't be easy, as Xavier has outscored opponents by an average of 19.2 points during a 9-0 start that's one win shy of the program's best set in 1996-97. The Musketeers are 7-0 in the Crosstown Shootout when ranked and have won the last five matchups on their home court.

Xavier has scored at least 90 points in three straight blowout wins, the most recent Tuesday's 90-55 rout of Wright State. Trevon Bluiett had a career-high 22 points and grabbed 11 rebounds for his second consecutive double-double, and the sophomore guard is shooting 47.2 percent from 3-point range after going 5 of 8.

"He's the guy that's a (matchup) problem and because of him, other guys are a problem because of the way you have to defend him," Bearcats coach Mick Cronin said. "They have a great player on offense that forces teams to pick their poison on defense."

Bluiett made two go-ahead free throws with 11.5 seconds left and the Musketeers shot 52.6 percent in last season's meeting. They shot 56.4 percent in a 64-47 victory over Cincinnati in December 2013, with both rates the highest the Bearcats have allowed in each of those seasons.

Cincinnati (8-1) is holding opponents to 36.1 percent and 58.4 points per game this season, though its last four have shot 44.6 percent on 3s.

'I'm extremely frustrated right now with our identity as a team," Cronin said following Sunday's 87-66 win over Morgan State. "Our identity right now is to play offense. I don't know if I have one guy on my team that if you asked their role on the team, his immediate answer would be: I give us toughness and defense.'

Xavier coach Chris Mack has been more pleased with his team's performance on that end. The Musketeers have held their six of their last seven opponents under 41 percent.

'We're a better defensive team than we've been in a long time," he said.

The Musketeers will face a balanced Cincinnati offense that contains eight players averaging at least 7.3 points. Six finished in double figures against Morgan State.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Gators (6-2) at Spartans (10-0)

Date: December 12, 2015 6:00 PM EDT

Michigan State routinely assembles a rigorous nonconference schedule in order to prepare it for the Big Ten slate and the tough competition it expects to face in March.

The top-ranked Spartans have mowed through their opponents on their way to their second-best start in 20 years under coach Tom Izzo, and the squad's last test before the conference season is Saturday night's home date with Florida.

Michigan State (10-0) has scored neutral-site victories over then-No. 4 Kansas on Nov. 17 as well as Providence, which checked in at No. 15 in this week's Top 25, on Nov. 27.

Three nights later at home, it beat now-No. 22 Louisville in the Big Ten/ACC Challenge before a pair of 33-point wins over Binghamton last Saturday and Maryland-Eastern Shore on Wednesday.

Guard Denzel Valentine, averaging a team-best 18.8 points, is looking to bounce back after scoring 11 and shooting 4 of 11 against the Hawks. He's totaled 24 points in the past two games, though he's also grabbed 22 rebounds in that span.

The Spartans have ascended to the top ranking after starting at No. 13, the biggest rise this quickly in a season since Arizona jumped from 17th to No. 1 in the first five weeks of 1987-88. They haven't started this well since winning their first 12 of 2000-01 as defending national champions.

Michigan State beat Florida in the 2000 title game, and Izzo has invited that Spartans team to East Lansing to be honored Saturday.

After facing the Gators (6-2), the Spartans play at Northeastern on Dec. 19 and take on Oakland, Michigan in Detroit on Dec. 22. Big Ten play opens Dec. 29 at Iowa.

'The party is over now,' Izzo said. 'The next three games are going to get tougher and tougher.'

Michigan State's biggest strengths have been its depth and chemistry. The Spartans had 25 assists on 27 baskets Wednesday and lead the nation in assisting on 80.0 percent of their makes.

"That kind of tells you as good a statement about what kind of team we've got as anything," Izzo said.

First-year Florida coach Mike White isn't speaking quite so glowingly of his squad. The Gators are shooting 42.2 percent after going 22 of 57 from the field and 1 of 12 from 3-point range in Tuesday's 66-55 road loss to No. 17 Miami.

'We're searching for an offensive identity,' White said. "We knew this team coming into the season was very inexperienced in so many different ways, especially offensively."

John Egbunu scored 14 points but starting guards Kasey Hill and KeVaughn Allen combined to go 3 of 14 from the floor and totaled eight points. A better performance won't be easy against a Michigan State team that ranks fifth in the nation in field-goal percentage defense at 35.3.

"We just have to believe in each other that the ball will go in - sooner or later," forward Devin Robinson said. "When it's not, we just have to play defense, get stops and eventually the ball will go our way."

Florida's other defeat was 85-70 to Purdue - now 11th in the poll - Nov. 22. That's the Gators' highest point total allowed this season, but the Boilermakers are the only team to shoot better than 40 percent against Florida.

"They really, really defend tough - more like Purdue," Izzo said. "It will be interesting to see how we move the ball.

"It's going to be a big game for us. They've got a couple losses, but I think it's a very good team."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Ducks (7-1) at Broncos (6-4)

Date: December 12, 2015 7:00 PM EDT

Last season, Oregon featured the Pac-12's leading scorer and Boise State had the Mountain West's top scorer.

Those players are gone and these clubs are using more balanced attacks ahead of Saturday night's matchup in which the No. 24 Ducks will try to snap the Broncos' 12-game home win streak.

Oregon (7-1) was led last season in scoring by Joseph Young, who averaged 20.7 points before graduating. Freshman Tyler Dorsey is the Ducks' leading scorer now with 14.4 points per game, but he missed Monday's 67-47 rout of Navy with a mild knee sprain.

With Dorsey out, Dillon Brooks had 19 points and six assists. Brooks averages 14.0 points and 2.8 assists.

"Coach (Dana Altman) said that I had to step up," Brooks said. "Tyler Dorsey was scoring a lot for us so people had to come in and score."

Dorsey is questionable for this contest after Dwayne Benjamin started in his place.

The Ducks have five players averaging at least 11 points, and Boise State (6-4) features similar balance with four players averaging between 10.5 and 14.6 points.

The Broncos are trying to replace Derrick Marks, who averaged 19.6 points.

"Last year we always knew that Derrick was going to get that last shot, it's not going to be the same this year," coach Leon Rice said. "It isn't going to just be one guy every night."

Boise State has won at least 21 games each of the last three seasons with two NCAA Tournament appearances. The Broncos got off to a 3-4 start before a three-game win streak, including Wednesday's 67-66 victory over Loyola Marymount on Mikey Thompson's three-point play with 12.7 seconds left.

James Webb III had 17 points and 10 rebounds and four other Broncos each scored 10 in the opener of a five-game homestand.

"We started out a little slow," Webb said. "We are trying to build back up our reputation again. Everyone has high expectations for this season, but I think we really just need to focus on one game at a time."

One reason for Boise State's woes is a tough schedule that includes three losses to ranked teams - two to Arizona and one to Michigan State. None of those games have been at home, where the Broncos have dropped their last four to Top 25 teams.

Oregon, which is 5-0 in the series, hasn't visited Boise State since winning 61-58 in 1996. The last meeting was the Ducks' 79-71 win in the 2011 CBI semifinals.

"They are a really good team," Rice said. "We need to get this place sold out. We need to get Bronco Nation to come out and hate the Ducks as much as they do. They can help us win the game."

Boise State is second in the MWC with 26.4 3-point attempts per game. That's a concern for the Ducks, who allowed UNLV to shoot 44.8 percent from beyond the arc in last Friday's 80-69 defeat.

"We didn't do a very good job," Altman told the Ducks' official website. "(If) we don't get pressed out against Boise we're going to be in trouble, because they can shoot it."

Altman said that Jordan Bell, who led the Pac-12 with 94 blocks a season ago, may make his season debut following foot surgery.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Beavers (6-1) at Jayhawks (7-1)

Date: December 12, 2015 8:00 PM EDT

Kansas didn't miss a beat as it re-inserted Brannen Greene into its rotation. The Jayhawks, though, face a stern challenge in sustaining their high-octane offense Saturday night when they play Oregon State at the Sprint Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

Greene, one of the team's best 3-point shooters last season at 40.4 percent (40 for 99), recently had to miss five games for an unspecified violation of conduct detrimental to the team. That meant the junior was left behind while the second-ranked Jayhawks (7-1) won the Maui Invitational in Hawaii and sat out victories over Loyola of Maryland and Harvard.

He made an immediate contribution in his return Wednesday night in a 92-59 victory over Holy Cross, hitting 3 of 4 shots from beyond the arc and 5 of 6 overall as he scored 14 points in 17 minutes off the bench.

'Let me make this real clear, we don't need to get on the same page. He needs to get on our page,' coach Bill Self said of Greene, who is 8 of 9 from 3-point range and 11 of 12 overall in three games. 'And we had several, or a few, good talks initially, really good talks. His attitude has been really good and I think he wants to be part of what we're doing here.'

Should he stay in Self's good graces, Greene can further advance an offense that already leads Division I in 3-point shooting at 47.2 percent while also placing in the top six in scoring (91.0 ppg), overall shooting percentage (52.0) and effective field-goal percentage (59.7).

The Jayhawks have yet to be held under 70 points, but their defense remains a work in progress. Self seemed particularly annoyed they failed to put away the Crusaders, who drew within six early in the second half, and knows the Beavers (6-1) will be a tough out.

"They're picked in the upper half of the Pac-12 and they have a famous dad from their roster," Self said. "Gary Payton's son is really a nice player that does a lot of things like his dad did. They're good. They've got a good team."

Oregon State has not been to the NCAA Tournament since the elder Payton averaged 14.6 points, 7.4 assists, 3.3 rebounds and 2.4 steals in the 1987-88 season. His progeny, Gary Payton II, has displayed that same all-around game since arriving in Corvallis last season and is one of 18 Division I players leading his team in points (16.4), assists (4.9) and rebounds (8.1).

While he lacks his father's legendary trash-talking persona and "The Glove" nickname, the senior guard has been steady. He totaled 16 points and eight rebounds in Oregon State's 66-62 win over Nevada last Saturday and broke his father's school record with a steal in his 38th straight game.

'It's just me playing basketball. I do what I do on defense and it just happens I passed (the record)," the younger Payton said. "We'll put it behind us and get ready for the next opponent."

This opponent is by far the toughest the Beavers have faced, but they could make things tough on the Kansas offense. Oregon State ranks second in the Pac-12 defensively in points (64.0 per game) and field-goal percentage (37.6).

Saturday's contest is the kind of game coach Wayne Tinkle knows his players need - win or lose - to end that NCAA Tournament drought.

"If we bring our hard hats and lunch pails to practice and our mindset to put a plan in and prepare the right way, it'll be a great experience," Tinkle said. "These preseason games are all about gaining experience and hopefully without too many losses to learn from."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Bruins (6-3) at Bulldogs (6-2)

Date: December 12, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

After having its home nonconference winning streak snapped by one traditional Pac-12 power, No. 20 Gonzaga surely won't be looking past another.

With a victory over the nation's then-No. 1 team on its resumè, UCLA should have the struggling Bulldogs' full attention anyway when they meet Saturday night for the first time since last season's NCAA Tournament.

This rematch of a 2015 regional semifinal appeared somewhat lopsided a month ago, when Gonzaga resided in the top 10 and the Bruins got off to a 3-3 start that included losses to Monmouth and Wake Forest.

UCLA has since turned the corner by winning three straight upon returning from the Maui Invitational, highlighted by a stunning 87-77 home upset of Kentucky on Dec. 3.

Conversely, Gonzaga (6-2) has been largely unimpressive since its third-place finish in last month's Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, sandwiching last Saturday's 68-63 loss to No. 13 Arizona around narrow wins over Washington State and Montana.

After blowing a 10-point halftime lead to the Wildcats for their first nonconference defeat in Spokane since December 2012, the Bulldogs trailed Montana in the final minute before scoring five unanswered points to pull out a 61-58 decision.

'We're very lucky to get out of this with a win,' coach Mark Few said.

Gonzaga's slump has coincided with Przemek Karnowski's back injury that's expected to sideline the 7-foot-1 center for a fourth consecutive game. While the Bulldogs' defense and rebounding have remained solid, they're averaging a modest 64.3 points while shooting 42.5 percent in the senior's absence.

"He's a huge, huge part of who we are," said Few. "I think these guys are performing admirably without one of their best, most important players out there on the floor."

Gonzaga is still receiving heavy contributions from top scorers Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis, but starting guard Kyle Dranginis is 2 of 14 from the field over the three-game stretch and sixth man Silas Melson 0 for 8 in his last two.

Wiltjer had 33 points against Arizona and is averaging 20.6 per game, while Sabonis has 40 rebounds over the past three.

Karnowski also had a major impact in Gonzaga's 74-62 win over the Bruins in March, tallying 18 points on 8-of-11 shooting and helping the Bulldogs record a 50-39 rebounding advantage. Gonzaga also dealt UCLA an 87-74 defeat at Pauley Pavilion last December behind Wiltjer's 24 points.

The Bruins (6-3) shot a combined 40.2 percent in those losses, but they've hit their stride offensively of late. They shot an impressive 52.8 percent against Kentucky and had four players with at least 15 points in Sunday's 83-76 win over Long Beach State.

"We can't be a team of excuses; we need to be one of growth," coach Steve Alford said. "And we did grow. We did a good job of valuing the ball in a game that went up and down."

Alford's son, Bryce, leads five Bruins averaging at least 11.7 points per game. The junior guard had a season-high 24 against Long Beach State, while center Thomas Welsh has compiled 36 points and 21 rebounds over the last two. The sophomore recorded 21 points and a career-high 11 rebounds against Kentucky.

UCLA makes its first visit to McCarthey Athletic Center, where the Bulldogs are 44-2 in their last 46 outings and had won 18 straight over nonconference foes prior to the Arizona loss.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Tip Sheet
By Brian Edwards


**Florida at Michigan State**

-- Michigan State (10-0 straight up, 7-2 against the spread) is ranked No. 1 in the country thanks to five quality wins. Tom Izzo’s team has home wins over Louisville and Eastern Michigan, in addition to neutral-court victories over Boise State, Kansas and Providence. Trailing KU 61-50 with 9:42 left in Chicago, Denzel Valentine rallied Sparty to a 79-73 win as a 4.5-point underdog. Valentine scored 29 points, grabbed 12 rebounds and dished out 12 assists compared to only one turnover.

-- Valentine has established himself as a candidate for National Player of the Year honors here in the early going. The senior slasher is averaging team-highs in scoring (18.8 points per game), rebounding (8.9 RPG), assists (7.7 APG) and steals (0.9 SPG). He has produced a pair of triple-doubles vs. Boston College and vs. Kansas, becoming just the third player in MSU history to record multiple triple-doubles along with Magic Johnson and Draymond Green. Valentine has a 77/24 assists-to-turnovers ratio and is draining 85.7 percent of his free throws.

-- MSU has taken the cash in back-to-back wins over cupcake opponents. The Spartans smashed Maryland-Eastern Shore 78-35 as 34.5-point home favorites on Wednesday. Bryn Forbes was one of three Sparty players in double figures with a team-high 14 points. Valentine produced 11 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. Eron Harris, the transfer from West Va., made all four of his attempts from 3-point range in a 12-point effort. However, Harris had four turnovers without an assist.

-- Michigan State ranks sixth in the nation in scoring defense (57.3 PPG) and is fifth in field-goal percentage defense (fifth, 35.3%). This could make it a long night for the Gators on the offensive end of the floor.

-- Forbes is the only other MSU player outside of Valentine that’ scoring in double figures. He is averaging 12.8 PPG thanks to 49.1 percent shooting from downtown. Harris has the ability to be an elite scorer. After all, he scored at a 17.2 PPG clip for the Mountaineers in 2013-2014 before sitting out last season. But Harris is only logging 16.0 minutes per game to date, which is obviously in part due to an effort by Izzo for him to become more committed on the defensive end of the court. Harris is averaging 7.4 PPG to date.

-- Florida (6-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) is the SEC’s highest-ranked team in the RPI (ninth), but we should note that the RPI’s rankings are a little strange at this early point of the season. The Gators have a pair of wins over RPI Top-100 foes in Richmond (#31) and State Joe’s (#72). They smashed the Spiders by a 76-56 count as 8.5-point home favorites on Dec. 1 in what was their best performance of the season. John Egbunu, the starting sophomore center who sat out last year after transferring from South Fla., led the way with 17 points and 14 rebounds in only 26 minutes of playing time. Devin Robinson added 12 points and 13 boards, while freshman KeVaughn Allen was also in double figures with 10 points. Dorian Finney-Smith, UF’s senior leader and starting small forward, tallied nine points, 13 rebounds, six assists, three blocks and committed only one turnover.

-- Florida’s losses have come to Purdue on a neutral court (85-70) and at Miami. Mike White’s squad dropped a 66-55 decision in Coral Gables this past Tuesday, failing to cover the spread as a six-point road underdog. The 121 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 141.5-point total. The Gators were completely inept from 3-point range, making only 1-of-12 attempts (8.3%). Egbunu scored a team-best 14 points, while Finney-Smith contributed 12 points and six rebounds. Robinson added 11 points and six boards. UF had an abysmal 7/10 assists-to-turnovers ratio.

-- Finney-Smith is averaging team-highs in scoring (14.0 points per game) and rebounding (8.6 RPG), and he’s tied for second in assists (23) and steals (eight). Egbunu is averaging 12.9 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. He has a team-best 10 blocked shots. For a big man with a huge frame, he has an excellent touch from the charity stripe, draining free throws at a 76.7 percent clip.

-- I believe the offensive woes for this team start with starting junior point guard Kasey Hill, who along with Chris Walker were five-star recruits ranked among the nation’s Top-10 players by every recruiting service in the 2013 class. Walker’s collegiate career has to be considered one of the biggest busts among five-star recruits in recent memory. Hill’s career to date has been an immense disappointment as well. He’s usually outstanding at penetrating off the dribble, but he too often can’t finish at the rim or make the right decisions. In eight games this year, his 25/14 assists-to-turnovers ratio isn’t impressive. Hill’s field-goal percentage last year (37.9%) was terrible and is only worse so far this season (34.8%). He was an abysmal 52.6 percent from the free-throw line last season. In 2015-2016, Hill’s making only 57.1 percent from the line.

-- UF is 0-2 both SU and ATS as a ‘dog this season.

-- Florida remains without senior forward Alex Murphy, who is dealing with a foot injury sustained in early November. Murphy is expected to miss another week or two. The Duke transfer averaged 5.1 PPG last year, his first as a Gator.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in three straight UF games. The Gators have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 overall and 2-0 in their true road assignments. They rank No. 15 in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 59.6 points per game.

-- UF’s penchant for ‘unders’ to date also centers around its offensive struggles. Like last year, the Gators just don’t have an abundance of shooters, certainly not like the ones that characterized Billy Donovan’s program for nearly two decades. They are No. 312 in American from long distance, shooting an atrocious 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. Also, UF is making just 42.2 percent of its attempts from the field (No. 240 in the country).

-- The ‘under’ is 6-3 overall for the Spartans, 3-2 in their home games.

-- This is a rematch of the 2000 national-title game won by Michigan State, 89-76, as a four-point favorite. Since then, these schools have met four times. The Spartans clobbered UF 99-83 at Breslin Center on Dec. 6 of 2000 as 8.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Florida won a 74-70 decision over MSU in 2001, but Izzo’s team easily covered the number as a 14-point underdog. In the Round of 32 at the 2003 NCAA Tournament, UF was the No. 2 seed and playing two hours from home in Tampa. The Spartans were in rebuilding year, barely making the Big Dance as a No. 10 seed. Nevertheless, Michigan State dominated David Lee, Matt Bonner and Co. in a 68-46 triumph as a five-point ‘dog. These schools met again in 2009 in Atlantic City with UF capturing a 77-74 win as a 3.5-point underdog. Chandler Parsons scored a team-high 14 points for the Gators.

-- Tip-off is scheduled for 6:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**UCLA at Gonzaga**

-- Gonzaga (6-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) is mired in a 0-4-1 ATS slump after failing to cover again in Tuesday’s 61-58 win over Montana as a 17.5-point home favorite. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis scored 16 points apeice and had nine and 10 rebounds, respectively. Josh Perkins added 13 points, six boards, three assists and two steals.

-- Mark Few’s team has a pair of losses by only six combined points. Gonzaga lost 62-61 to Texas A&M in the Bahamas and also dropped a 68-63 decision to Arizona at home. The Bulldogs blew a 10-point lead at halftime against the Wildcats.

-- Gonzaga is led by Wiltjer, who is a National Player of the Year candidate. The Kentucky transfer, who is playing his second season for Few, helped the Bulldogs to their second Elite Eight in school history last year. Wiltjer, who had 33 points and nine rebounds in the losing effort vs. Arizona, is averaging 20.6 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. Sabonis is scoring at a 14.4 PPG clip and averages a team-high 10.4 rebounds per conteState

-- Since dropping back-to-back games vs. Kansas (93-72) and vs. Wake Forest (80-77) at the Maui Classic, UCLA (6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS) has won three in a row while going 2-1 ATS. Steve Alford’s team won an 87-77 decision over previously-undefeated and top-ranked Kentucky as a 6.5-point underdog. The victory over UK avenged an embarrassing loss to the Wildcats last year and was the school’s first win over a No. 1-ranked opponent since 2003. All five starters scored in double figures led by sophomore center Thomas Welsh, the 7-footer who finished with 21 points, 11 rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Bryce Alford added 15 points, five rebounds and four assists.

-- UCLA lost its season opener at home to Monmouth (84-81), but the stain of that defeat has subsided since the Hawks have also upset USC and Notre Dame on neutral courts and only lost by three to Dayton on a neutral floor.

-- UCLA is off an 83-76 non-covering home win over Long Beach State as an 11-point ‘chalk.’ Alford was outstanding with 24 points and six assists without a turnover. Tony Parker added 16 points and 10 rebounds, while Welsh also had a double-double with 15 points and 10 boards. Isaac Hamilton contributed 21 points, four boards, four assists and four steals.

-- Alford paces the Bruins in scoring (16.2 PPG) and assists (5.4 APG). Welsh is averaging 13.3 points and 7.1 rebounds per game. He has a team-best 12 blocked shots and is making 62.8 percent of his shots from the field. Parker is averaging a double-double (14.0 PPG, 10.9 RPG).

-- Gonzaga is ranked No. 22 in the nation in scoring defense (61.2 PPG). The Bulldogs are third in the country at defending the 3-point line, forcing foes to make only 23.8 percent of their attempts from long distance.

-- These schools have met in the NCAA Tournament twice in the last decade. UCLA beat Gonzaga 73-71 to end Adam Morrison’s collegiate career in the 2006 Sweet 16. Then last season in the Sweet 16, Gonzaga won a 74-62 decision as an 8.5-point favorite. Since 1999, these teams have collided four times with the Bulldogs going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS.

-- The ‘over’ is 5-4 overall for the Bruins, 4-2 in their home outings.

-- The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive contests for Gonzaga to improve to 6-1 overall. The ‘under’ is 3-0 for the Bulldogs in their home games.

-- ESPN2 will provide television coverage at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Michigan senior point guard Spike Albrecht announced Friday that he was leaving the team to concentrate on his recovery from bilateral hip surgery. Stats and numbers don’t do justice to the type of collegiate career the two-time team captain enjoyed for the maize and blue. As a true freshman, he played the game of his life in the national-title game against Louisville. Albrecht exploded for 17 first-half points, drilling four in a row from 3-point range (and then some on a few of the long-range jumpers). His previous season-high had been seven points. Albrecht was also an integral part of an Elite Eight run in 2014 as a sophomore. Best wishes to him in his recovery.

-- Cincinnati (8-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) and Xavier (9-0 SU, 6-3 ATS) will renew their bitter rivalry once against at 5:30 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. The Bearcats have lost three in a row ATS and took their first outright defeat at home vs. Butler (78-76) on Dec. 2. The Musketeers have quality wins over Dayton, USC, Alabama, Michigan and Missouri. They won by 16 in Ann Arbor and trashed the Flyers by a 90-61 score.

-- South Carolina (8-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is the only unbeaten SEC team remaining. The Gamecocks host Drexel on Tuesday before facing arch-rival Clemson on the road at Littlejohn Coliseum next Friday.

-- Kentucky is mired in a 0-6 ATS slump after failing to cover in Wednesday’s 88-67 win over Eastern Ky. As a 24.5-point home favorite. Alex Poythress recorded his third double-double of the season by going for 21 points and 13 rebounds The ‘Cats return to the court Saturday to take on Arizona State at Rupp Arena.

-- Michigan State is second in the nation in rebounding margin (17.6), while Xavier ranks fifth (14.0).

-- Nation’s best ATS teams to date: Texas-Arlington (8-1), UCF (6-0), IUPU-Ft. Wayne (7-1), Kansas State (5-0) and So. Miss (5-0).

-- UT-Arlington has outright wins at Ohio State and at Memphis as a double-digit underdog. The Mavericks also won as 1.5-point ‘dogs at UTEP. They lost 80-73 at Texas in overtime but still managed to cover the spread as 9.5-point puppies.

-- Alabama suffered a huge loss when starting freshman guard Dazon Ingram broke his foot earlier this week. Ingram, who was averaging 7.7 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.1 steals per game, will miss the rest of the season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Dec. 12 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Welcome to my first NCAA 3-Point Play story of the new season. This will be a near-daily look at three games that caught my eye each day for whatever reason -- often involving ranked teams if possible, but it's all about value so if I see it on Canisius vs. Quinnipiac, well then that's where I'm going. It's still nonconference time in college basketball, so this won't start up in full yet as many ranked teams are still fattening up on cupcakes and a holiday break is coming. But after the New Year, look for this most days to give you a betting head start.


Florida at No. 1 Michigan State (-10)

It's a 6 p.m. tip on ESPN2 from East Lansing and the Spartans' 2000 National Championship team, which beat Florida in the final, will be honored at the Breslin Center. The Spartans rose to No. 1 in the polls Monday for only the fourth time in school history. Pretty quick jump since MSU was only 13th in the preseason AP poll. But Michigan State has looked like the nation's best team with excellent wins over Kansas, Providence and Louisville. This clearly is the last obstacle before entering Big Ten play unbeaten since only Northeastern and Oakland remain ahead of conference play. Sparty didn't get caught looking ahead to the Gators on Monday as it routed a really bad Maryland-Eastern Shore team, 78-35. Denzel Valentine, likely the early Player of the Year favorite in the country, had 11 points, 10 rebounds and six assists despite playing through an illness. The Spartans are off to their best start since the 2000-01 season when they were defending National Champions and won the first 12.

The Gators were sideswiped -- but not really surprised -- when Billy Donovan left in the offseason to take over the Oklahoma City Thunder. UF didn't exactly spur too much excitement in Gainesville with the hiring of Louisiana Tech's Michael White. But Florida (6-2) has played pretty well, only losing to ranked Purdue and then Miami (by a combined 26 points) in the team's last outing. UF shot only 38.6 percent overall and 1-for-12 from 3-point range vs. UM. All five Gators guards in the main rotation totaled only 14 points; the backcourt is this team's weakness. This is interesting in that Florida only had back-to-back games vs. ranked teams on the road once in Donovan's 19 years and never in the nonconference season. It took White all of nine games for that chore.

Key trends: The Gators are 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games. MSU is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 at home.

I'm leaning: Michigan State.

Oregon State vs. No. 2 Kansas (-14)

Tip is 8 p.m. ET and on ESPN2. This is technically a neutral-site game in Kansas City, but that's obviously going to be all KU fans. I suppose it gives OSU a slightly better chance than winning at Allen Fieldhouse, where the Jayhawks rarely lose. Oregon State (6-1) is off to a solid start but hasn't played anyone, losing to Valparaiso. This is the second game back from injury for Beavers senior forward Jamal Reid, who missed the first six due to injury. He played 22 minutes, a bit more than expected, and had seven points, five rebounds and four assists in last Saturday's win over Nevada. OSU remains without senior forward Daniel Gomis due to a broken left hand. The team's best player by far is a name you might recognize: Gary Payton II. He leads OSU in points (16.4 ppg), rebounds (8.1 rpg) and assist (4.9 apg).

Kansas has won six in a row since a close loss to Michigan State in Chicago. The Jayhawks had no trouble with Holy Cross on Wednesday, 92-59. KU big men Landen Lucas (sprained big toe) and Jamari Traylor (ankle sprain) missed the game for precautionary reasons. They should play here. Junior guard Brannen Greene returned from a suspension against Holy Cross -- his six-gamer was reduced by one -- and had 14 points on 5-for-6 shooting. He is now 11-of-12 shooting on the season and 8-of-9 from 3. Coach Bill Self suspended him because Greene was complaining about playing time during and after the Michigan State loss. KU is one of the nations' best offensive teams, averaging 90.9 points per game, shooting 50.7 percent from the field and 45.5 percent from 3-point range.

For what it's worth, in November 2012 Oregon State pushed Kansas to the brink at Sprint Center, losing only by six.

Key trends: Beavers are 6-2 ATS in their past eight vs. the Big 12. KU is 2-5 ATS in its past seven after scoring more than 90 points in its previous game.

I'm leaning: OSU covers.

UCLA at No. 20 Gonzaga (-9)

Another ESPN2 game, with a tip at 10 p.m. ET. Which UCLA team shows up here? The one that dominated No. 1 Kentucky on Dec. 3 in a 10-point win or the one that lost to Monmouth and Wake Forest and was blown out by Kansas? This will be the Bruins' first true road game and their only one before Pac-12 play begins. It's the Bruins' first-ever trip to Gonzaga. UCLA sophomore 7-footer Thomas Welsh is the reigning Pac-12 Player of the Week as he averaged 18.0 points and 10.5 rebounds in UCLA's two wins last week. He was fabulous against Kentucky with 21 points and 11 rebounds. UCLA junior guard Bryce Alford, son of Coach Steve Alford, is five points shy of 1,000 career. Alford leads UCLA in scoring (16.4 ppg).

Gonzaga has been mildly disappointing with two losses -- nearly three as it was pushed to the limit by Montana on Tuesday -- as this was projected to be perhaps the best team in the program's history. But the defeats were only by a combined six points and to ranked teams Texas A&M and Arizona. The Zags have played their past three games, including the Arizona loss, without 7-foot-1 center Przemek Karnowski. He's dealing with back spasms and not likely to return soon. The senior averaged 10.9 points and 5.8 rebounds last year.

These teams know each other well. Last season, Gonzaga defeated UCLA in Pauley Pavilion 87-74 in the regular season and beat the Bruins 72-64 in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

Key trends: UCLA is 4-1 ATS in its past five road games vs. teams with a winning home record. Gonzaga is 1-4 ATS in its past five after a win.

I'm leaning: UCLA covers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Notes for Saturday's games..........

UConn lost three of last four games; all three losses were to teams in top 40. Huskies are 12-9 in last 21 non-league games- their best win was by 14 over #39 Michigan. 4-4 Ohio State is #347 in experience, playing the #295 schedule thus far- their best win was over #199 Mt St Mary's- this is their first true road game. AAC home favorites are 16-6 vs spread.

Wisconsin won four of last six games with Marquette, beating them last two years 70-64/49-38; Golden Eagles shot 7-31 (22.6%) inside arc LY vs Badgers. Marquette is 7-2 vs schedule #328; they did beat Arizona State, LSU on neutral floors. Wisconsin lost last game to Milwaukee. Big 14 home favorites are 21-17 vs spread; Big East road underdogs are 4-4.

Butler lost 67-55 at Tennessee LY after being up 12 early in second half; Bulldogs have #1 eFG% in country, are shooting 58% inside arc. Vols are 4-3 with best win over #123 Arnmy- they allowed 77.5 ppg in losing last two games, to George Washington, Nebraska. Big East home favorites are 18-11 against the spread; SEC road underdogs are 4-4.

8-1 Kentucky is #342 in experience; they're shooting only 27.5% on arc (#326) but rebound 42.8% of their missed shots (#6). Wildcats has top 100 wins over Duke/Albany- they lost at #44 UCLA. Arizona State won its only true road game 79-77 at Creighton; 6-2 ASU played five games decided by 3 or less points or in OT. Pac-12 road underdogs are 4-1.

Utah beat Wichita State 69-68 in OT at homr LY, after falling behind by 10-0 early on; Shockers have won 35 in row at home, are 2-0 since they got VanVleet back from hamstring injury- they beat UNLV 56-50 in last game Wednesday. First true road game for Utah squad that won two of three at San Juan tourney. Missouri Valley home favorites are 7-12.

6-0 St Mary's is #334 in experience playing #330 schedule; Gaels made 47.2% of their 3's in six games, all at home- they've got #1 eFG% in US. California lost its two top 100 games, to San Diego State/Richmond; its best win was over #154 UCSB- they also won in OT at Wyoming. WCC road underdogs are 5-14. Pac-12 home favorites are 22-16 vs spread.

Northern Iowa won five of last six D-I games with win over UNC; they are making 42.4% on arc, have #8 eFG% in country. UNI is 2-1 at home, losing by 15 at Richmond when Spiders made 13-25 on arc. New Mexico lost its two top 100 games by 8-12 to USC/Purdue- their best win was by 16 over #144 Oral Roberts. Missouri Valley road underdogs are 4-10.

Texas won last two games with North Carolina by 16-3 points; teams did not meet LY. UNC is 7-1, losing only true road game at Northern Iowa by 4 before Paige returned- they scored 93.5 ppg in two games since his return, winning by 8-33. Longhorns isn't pressing like Smart's VCU clubs because they don't have personnel for it- they're 2-3 vs top 100 teams.

Xavier won six of last eight games with Cincinnati, winning last five in its home gym by 2-2-5-4-23 points. Musketeers are 9-0 with best wins over Michigan, USC, Dayton- all their wins are by 9+. Cincinnati is 8-1 with only loss by hoop at home to Butler; Bearcats have #15 eFG% defense; they won only road game at Bowling Green. Big East road dogs are 4-4.

Florida is 6-2, 1-1 on road, losing by 11 at Miami, winning at Navy- they protect ball well, shoot just 28.9% on arc- they have #14 eFG%.defense. Michigan State is 10-0 with #4 eFG% defense, #15 offense; they beat Kansas by 6, Providence by 13, Louisville by 4. SEC road underdogs are 4-4 against the spread; Big 14 home favorites are 21-17.

Cal-Irvine lost three of last five games; they're 2-1 on road, with wins at UCF/Pacific by total of five points, Anteaters have experienced team but are 0-3 vs teams ranked over #140. Utah State lost two of its last three games (Duke/BYU); they're shooting only 43.2% inside arc. MW home favorites are 9-9 vs spread; Big West road underdogs are 11-8 vs spread.

Gonzaga never trailed, shot 64.7% inside arc in 87-74 win at UCLA LY, but they're struggling now, losing at home to Arizona LW, then beating Montana by 3 last game; Zags are turning ball over 20.8% of time. UCLA scored 82.3 ppg in winning last three games, beating Kentucky, Long Beach State in last two- their losses are by 3-19-3 points.

Auburn hasn't played in 10 days- they beat Middle Tennessee by 16 LY, won only road game this year by 3 at Coastal Carolina, almost blowing an 18-point lead in last 8:00. Tigers have #17 eFG%, making 41.5% on arc. Middle Tennessee lost only top 100 game to VCU by 6; they turn ball over 20.6% of time, but beat Toledo by 8 to win Alaskan Shootout.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'College Hoops'

Kentucky (8-1, 2-7 ATS) bouncing back from their first blemish of the season Wednesday defeated Eastern Kentucky 88-67. However, Cali's Cats failed at the betting window as -24.5 point favorite. As well as Wildcats play on home hardwood they've had a hard time beating the spread. During their current 25-0 streak at Rupp Arena the Wildcats are just 11-14 against the betting line.

Bobby Hurley's Sun Devils are off to a solid start (6-2, 5-3 ATS) including a 67-54 victory as 3.0 point home pups last time out against then 18th-ranked Texas A&M. Sun Devils aren't likely to upset Kentucky in front of its crazed home crowd. But, should give Kentucky a run for the money. Cats have struggled cashing vs Pac-12 opponents (3-7 ATS), have not been good bets in the -10 to -15 point range (4-8 ATS). Oddsmakers have Wildcats -12.0 point favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

The underdogs were barking early last Saturday as Stoke City (+400) and Bournemouth (+800) captured upsets against Manchester City and Chelsea respectively. We also had three surprising draws in games between West Ham-Manchester United (+360), Aston Villa-Southampton (+340) and Tottenham-West Brom (+255). The upsets continued Sunday and Monday as New Castle United (+400) blanked Liverpool at home while Crystal Palace played Everton to a 1-1 draw (+290).

Underdogs closed the week 4-2 with four draws, while the ‘under’ posted an eye opening 8-2 mark. Through 15 weeks, favorites are 66-41 with 43 draws. After last week’s lopsided total results, the ‘under’ holds a 75-71-4 mark this season.

Champions-Europa Action

If it wasn’t for Manchester United coming up short, all four of the Premier League teams would’ve advanced to the Champions League knockout phase. The Red Devils disappointed in their road loss to Wolfsburg while Arsenal answered the bell with a big 3-0 win at Greece. The Gunners finished second in their group behind favorite Bayern Munich, while Manchester City and Chelsea won their groups with two-goal victories this past week.

In Europa League action, both Tottenham and Liverpool won their groups and advanced to the knockout phase of the competition. The aforementioned Red Devils will try to rebound from the CL defeat by entering this event as a third-place finisher in the CL. The Europa winner now receives an automatic berth to next year’s Champions League tournament.

Top 4

The action for the Top 4 clubs is spread out from Sunday to Monday this weekend. It’s never easy to handicap emotions but it will be interesting to see how the quartet comes out after playing key games earlier this week.

Manchester City vs. Swansea City (Saturday, NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

Swansea City (+925) has been installed as the largest underdog (+925) this weekend and taking a flyer on this club would be throwing money away in my opinion. The club just fired manager Garry Monk this past week after the team dropped a 3-0 decision at home to Leicester City last Saturday. The Swans have one point in their last five league games and they haven’t posted a clean sheet in since early September.

Manchester City (-360) is still hobbled but it has a ton of depth and should be able to secure the three points at home, something they’ve managed to do six times (6-0-2) in eight games this season. The club is definitely hurting defensively without Vincent Kompany on the backline and he’s expected to be ‘out’ again on Saturday. In seven games he’s misses, the team has allowed 15 goals while surrendering just one with him.

The total is 3 goals with the ‘over’ (-120) favored and even though City won’t have striker Sergio Aguero (heel) available, the club posted four goals without him this past Tuesday in CL action. Coming off a 2-0 loss at Stoke City in league play last Saturday should create a sense of urgency for Manuel Pellegrini’s team.

Manchester has won the last four encounters against Swansea, which includes a pair of home wins by 3-0 and 2-1 margins during this span. Swansea has gone 1-2-4 on the road this season and been outscored 10-6 in those games.

Manchester United at Bournemouth (Saturday, NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Bournemouth (+230) has a chance to make more headlines again this Saturday when it meets Manchester United (+125) at home. The Cherries have played great in their first-ever EPL season and are coming off a 1-0 victory at Chelsea last weekend. They preceded that win with a pair of draws to Swansea City (2-2) and Everton (3-3), which showed everybody that they can score as well.

United’s mettle will be tested and gauging the emotions for this match will be tough since the Red Devils were eliminated from the Champions League earlier this week. Manchester has been decent (4-2-2) on the road this season but the offense continues (20 goals) to lack an identity. Defensively, they have the best unit in the league with 10 goals conceded but nine of those were away from Old Trafford.

Bournemouth has managed just one win in seven games (1-3-3) at home this season while being outscored 12-8. This will be the first visit from a Top 4 team to Vitality Stadium this season and the locals will definitely be ready. The club currently sits outside of the relegation zone and one goal could help them earn a draw (+230) in this spot.

The Cherries have only posted one clean sheet this season, which came last week at Chelsea. The total is 2 ½ and shaded to the ‘under’ (-135).

Arsenal at Aston Villa (Sunday, NBCSN, 8:30 a.m. ET)

The Gunners (-185) visit Villa Park on Sunday and they could be in for a letdown spot after advancing in the Champions League earlier this week. Standing in there way will be an Aston Villa (+525) team that has only one win in league play this season and managed just two points in seven home games.

Arsenal has won four straight against Villa in all competitions and have outscored them 14-1 during this span. The Gunners have shown a great knack of winning on the road (5-1-2) this season in all competitions and they should have confidence after Wednesday’s victory at Olympiakos.

The total on this game is 2 ½ and both teams have slightly leaned to the ‘over’ this season with identical 8-7 marks. The difference is that Arsenal’s goal differential is +14 (27-13) while Aston Villa is -15 (28-13).

The draw (+280) appears to be a long shot as well, but Villa did earn a tie at home against Manchester City and they just came up short to Manchester United, 1-0.

Chelsea at Leicester City (Monday, NBCSN, 3:00 p.m. ET)

Quality game set for Monday night as Chelsea (+125) meets Leicester City (+215) in a game between teams going in opposite directions. The oddsmakers are still giving a ton of respect to the defending champions and not much to the team that currently sits in first place of the Premier League.

Leicester (9-5-1) has only lost one game this season and owns the best offense in the league, netting 32 goals. At home against Top 4 teams, City was blasted by Arsenal 5-2 and it escaped with a 1-1 draw to Manchester United. Also, it only managed a 1-1 draw against Tottenham earlier this season at home. Those results show you that Leicester hasn’t been able to solve the best clubs just yet and this is why it’s listed as a home underdog on Monday.

Betting on Chelsea hasn’t been a winning proposition, especially on the road. The Blues have managed five points (1-2-4) in seven games and have been nearly doubled-up (13-7) in goal differential. Chelsea’s defense has been better of late, allowing one goal in its last five games in all competitions. The total for Monday’s tilt is listed at 2 ½ goals, which makes you believe the defense will be sound again.

Fearless Predictions

We dropped $210 last week and the way things had been going, that’s actually a positive. Still plenty of time left to right the sinking ship ($2,255) but certainly need to pick up the pace. With the 10 games spread out this weekend, we have a little bit of everything covered.

Straight – Over 3 (-120) Manchester City-Swansea City – 2 Units

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-140) Watford-Sunderland - 2 Units

Straight – Tottenham -1 ½ (+110) over New Castle United – 2 Units

Straight – Under 2 ½ (+100) Chelsea-Leicester City – 2 Units

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Zaha set to return as Crystal Palace hosts Southampton
Andrew Avery

Talented winger Wilfried Zaha is set to return to the Crystal Palace lineup as the sixth-placed club welcomes Southamtpon to Selhurst Park Saturday.

Zaha missed the 1-1 draw to Everton last week as he served a suspension for picking up his fifth yellow card in the Eagles' 5-1 thumping of Newcastle United.

The winger has tallied two goals in league play this season and forms the righ half of a talented duo of wingers with Yannick Bolasie.

Palace is presently +155 in 1X2 markets at online shop Pinnacle Sports, while the Saints are +206 and the Draw is +232.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Everton collecting points regularly in league play
Andrew Avery

Everton has rebounded from back-to-back losses versus Manchester United and away to Arsenal with some of its best football of the season as the Toffees head into Saturday's date with Norwich.

The side has collected nine points from its previous five matches (two wins, three draws) and has climbed to ninth in the Premier League table with 22 points from 15 matches.

The Toffees followed up its 2-1 loss to Arsenal with a 6-2 thrashing of Sunderland and is coming off a 1-1 draw to Crystal Palace their last time out.

At online shop Pinnacle Sports, Everton is presently +156 in 1X2 markets, while the Canaries are +187 and the Draw +255.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Army vs. Navy

ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (2-9) vs. NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (9-2)

Lincoln Financial Field - Philadelphia, PA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Navy -22.5, Total: 53

Army tries to snap a long losing skid to rival Navy when the two schools meet Saturday in Philadelphia.

The Black Knights (4-6-1 ATS) have lost 13 straight meetings to the Midshipmen, but have ATS wins in three of the past four matchups, which have been decided by slim margins of six, four and seven points. Navy was able to secure a 17-10 victory last year with a 33:02 time of possession and a slightly more potent ground game (205 to 198 rushing advantage). Army has had a rough season with four straight losses (0-3-1 ATS), but three of those defeats have been by 10 points or less. The Midshipmen (8-3 ATS) have fallen just twice all season but one of those losses was a 52-31 blowout at Houston on Nov. 27, which kept them from playing for last week's American Athletic Conference crown.

The betting trends for Saturday are overwhelmingly in favor of Navy to win and cover the monster spread, as the school is 18-4 ATS (82%) versus terrible teams (25% or worse win pct.) since 1992. Also, college football favorites of 21.5 to 31 points with an excellent offense (6.1 yards per play) after gaining 6.75+ yards per play in two straight games are 56-24 ATS (70%) over the past 10 seasons. But bettors expecting this game to be within 20 points can look at Midshipmen head coach Ken Niumatalolo's 10-19 ATS record (35%) when facing a team with a losing record. Both schools are coming off a bye week, and the only recent injury for either team is Navy OT Blake Copeland, who is questionable for Saturday with a foot ailment.

Army loves to run the football with 52 rushing attempts per game this season, which translates into 254 rushing YPG on 4.9 YPC. The ground game has been even more incredible on the road where it averages an even 300 YPG on 5.8 YPC. The Black Knights throw the football only eight times per game, but despite a woeful 44% completion rate, they gain a hefty 10.2 YPA. Junior RB Aaron Kemper leads the team with 506 rushing yards (5.4 YPC) and has a pair of 125-yard efforts this year. Last week, he gained 59 yards on 11 carries (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown.

But the team's main ball carrier is QB Ahmad Bradshaw, who has a team-high 130 rushing attempts along with five rushing touchdowns. He will be expected to move the chains and give his team even more yards on the ground than last year's 198 yards (4.4 YPC) versus Navy. If the Knights are forced to pass, junior WR Edgar Poe (320 rec yds, 5 TD) is a speed burner who stretches the field with an outstanding 29.1 yards-per-catch average. He needed just two grabs to gain 95 yards last game versus Rutgers.

The Army defense is average, as it allows 28.5 PPG on 383 total YPG. Despite being on the field for only 27:38 per game, the Knights still allow 163 rushing YPG (4.5 YPC) and 220 passing YPG (8.3 YPA). This unit doesn't force many turnovers either with just four takeaways in the past seven games, and is facing an opponent with just three combined giveaways over the past six contests.

Navy is also a run-first offense with 58 rushing attempts per game and only eight passing attempts per contest. The ground game chews up an average of 32:38 on the clock with 20.9 first downs per contest. Overall, the rushing attack gains 330 YPG on 5.7 YPC, and much of that success is due to the play of QB Keenan Reynolds.

The senior has rushed for 83 touchdowns in his brilliant career, which includes 19 this season. This is also his third straight 1,000-yard campaign where he has 1,093 rushing yards on a career-best 5.0 YPC. Reynolds didn't have a great performance against Army last year with 100 rushing yards on 26 attempts (3.8 YPC) but he did both rush for a touchdown and pass for a touchdown during the 17-10 win. Reynolds has also thrown for a career-best 11.5 YPA this season with 6 TD and only one interception.

The other two offensive stars for the Midshipmen are FB Chris Swain (847 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 10 TD) and WR Jamir Tillman (468 rec yds, 21.3 avg, 4 TD). The senior Swain has compiled four 100-yard performances, but has been held to 52 rushing YPG in the past three weeks. The junior Tillman is coming off a career-high 162 receiving yards at Houston last game, and has averaged an amazing 39.0 yards per catch over his past three contests (7 receptions, 273 yards).

The Midshipmen defense has been pretty tough this season in limiting opponents to 21.7 PPG and 370 total YPG, but those numbers are much worse on the road (30.4 PPG, 427 total YPG). The run-stop unit is especially stingy in holding teams to 139 YPG on 3.9 YPC while the pass defense struggles at times in allowing a 66% completion rate, 231 passing YPG and 7.3 YPA. Navy did not force a turnover last game, but does have 21 takeaways this year and is playing a team with multiple turnovers in six games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Northern Iowa Panthers (9-4) at North Dakota State Bison (10-2)

Date: December 12, 2015 12:00 PM EDT

(STATS) - Chris Klieman stepped to the podium in a suit and tie for his weekly press conference and proceeded to speak in his usual straight-forward manner. He addressed questions directly and answered them honestly, as expected.

Then, the North Dakota State coach offered a twist all on his own - Carson Wentz might play when the third-seeded Bison host Missouri Valley Conference rival Northern Iowa in an FCS quarterfinal Saturday.

Suddenly, Klieman became vague when pressed. Everyone wanted to know more.

Does this mean that after sitting out six games with a broken wrist that Wentz will replace redshirt freshman Easton Stick if he's fully recovered? Even though Stick has guided the second-ranked Bison (10-2) to victories in each game he's started?

When will Klieman make a decision? How good does Wentz have to look in practice to make the call? Will that call come before Saturday?

It seems everyone, including the No. 15 Panthers (9-4), will have to wait to see if Wentz trots onto the Fargodome field in uniform.

"Carson threw last week, and we're going to progress him into some practice this week," Klieman said. "I'm not saying he's going to play, but he's going to practice. The brace is off his arm, and how much he's able to progress this week, we'll find out. We'll see what happens."

It seems only fair that Wentz could get a shot. He guided NDSU to its fourth consecutive national championship last season, and he threw four touchdowns in a 31-28 victory over visiting Northern Iowa on Oct. 10.

The last was an 18-yard strike to Darrius Shepherd with 35 seconds remaining that resulted in the winning score. But after Wentz got hurt the following week in a loss to South Dakota, the Bison turned to Stick and adjusted their offense to suit him.

They attempted at least 27 passes in each game with Wentz, but Stick hasn't thrown more than 20. He went 7 for 13 for 66 yards - the fewest the Bison have had through the air since 2010 - as NDSU rushed for 250 yards on 56 attempts in last week's 37-6 second-round win over Montana.

North Dakota State's approach this week might depend on who is under center.

"Don't get me wrong, we're not going to go in there and throw the thing 55 times, because that's just not what we do to be successful," Klieman said. "But we need to have more balance for sure."

The Panthers aren't hiding their offensive game plan - run, run and run some more.

Aaron Bailey hasn't completed more than 16 passes in a game, but he's rushed for at least 131 yards on six occasions. Four of those have come during UNI's seven-game winning streak, and one of the others was a 157-yard effort against NDSU.

The Illinois transfer had his best rushing performance in last week's 29-17 win at sixth-seeded Portland State, running 26 times for 200 yards and two touchdowns.

"We've fought our way into a good position right now and we're playing good football," coach Mark Farley said. "The Portland State game, with the trip and everything that was included, I really thought that we came out focused."

Klieman's dilemma is how to not only slow Bailey but also Tyvis Smith, who ran for 207 yards and two scores last week. Smith, who didn't play in the first meeting, rushed for at least 143 yards in each of the last four while scoring five touchdowns and averaging 7.9 yards per carry.

"We have to do a great job of being able to neutralize the running game as much as we can," Klieman said. "Whether that's once in awhile trying to take Bailey out, once in awhile trying to take Smith out, we have to be able to change that up. If they lock in on what we're doing, they're going to beat us the other way."

And Northern Iowa does have experience beating North Dakota State. The Panthers dealt the Bison their only loss last season, snapping NDSU's 33-game winning streak.

Bailey's 83-yard touchdown run in this year's meeting put UNI up by four with 7:31 left before Wentz brought the Bison back. The Panthers know they can hang with the reigning four-time national champions, but Farley isn't much for bringing up the past.

"A great motivational speech (about) revenge, all that stuff, lasts for about a play," Farley said. "It comes down to players understanding where they're supposed to play because once there's some wear and tear in the game, things settle out and (it becomes) the battles that are out on the field that will decide the game."

Klieman, who was an assistant at Northern Iowa for nine years before coming to NDSU, feels the same as his counterpart. The winner advances to the semifinals to face second-seeded Illinois State or Richmond.

"It's going to be a four-quarter game," he said. "These two teams know each other pretty well. There's great talent on both sides."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Colgate Raiders (9-4) at Sam Houston St Bearkats (10-3)

Date: December 12, 2015 12:00 PM EDT

Colgate and Sam Houston State are largely a study in contrasts, from their geographical locations to the kind of offenses they run to their recent playoff histories.

One of the few things they have in common is that each school is vying to become the latest unseeded team to reach the FCS playoff semifinals.

Colgate is also the only unranked squad remaining and will try to use its ball-control style to produce another upset Saturday against the sixth-ranked Bearkats, who will seek to ride their fast-paced attack to a fourth semifinal berth in five years.

An unseeded team is guaranteed to advance to the final four for the fifth time in six years, and Sam Houston is trying to accomplish the feat for the third time in that span.

Standing in the Bearkats' path this time are the Patriot League champions, who knocked off an up-tempo team last week with a 44-38 upset at fifth-seeded James Madison. It was the Raiders' seventh straight win and ninth in 10 games since an 0-3 start.

Quarterback Jake Melville ran for a career-high 163 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for two more. James Holland continued his impressive postseason with a personal-best 165 yards and two TDs in the back-and-forth game.

Holland scored all four of his team's touchdowns in a 27-20 win at New Hampshire on Nov. 28, Colgate's first playoff victory since 2003. That run culminated with its only appearance in the championship game, but the Raiders were routed 40-0 by a K.C. Keeler-coached Delaware team, the most-lopsided title result in FCS history.

While it carried a 21-game win streak into that game, Colgate was a sizable underdog as a non-scholarship program. With the upstate New York school having changed that policy in 2013, the Raiders current seniors are the last class who won't play under scholarship.

That win with the Blue Hens marked Keeler's only national championship in eight title-game appearances across all divisions, and he's seeking his second one in his second season in Texas. The Bearkats (10-3) will also see a similar opponent to the one they faced last week.

Colgate (9-4) has many similarities to a team that handed the Bearkats their only loss in the last 11 games - McNeese State. The Cowboys run the ball about 64 percent of the time, are adept at controlling the clock and have a dual-threat QB.

Sam Houston avenged that defeat with a 34-29 road victory over the No. 4 seed last Saturday and used some timely defensive efforts to survive after the Southland Conference champs had a 1st-and-goal at the 1 in the fourth quarter.

The Bearkats moved to No. 1 nationally in total offense (543.3 yards per game) after James Madison's performance against Colgate and their 42.9-point average is good for third. They compiled 494 yards and ran 83 plays against one of the nation's top defenses last week after running a school-record 118 plays in a 42-39 win against Southern Utah in its playoff opener Nov. 28.

"It's going to be a little bit of chess match. It really is," Keeler said. "They won't be afraid to be methodical moving the ball down the field. We'll be who we are. We just try to play a million miles an hour and use tempo as our friend."

With Southland offensive player of the year Jared Johnson still dealing with a nagging ankle injury, Jeremiah Briscoe might see the majority of snaps again but Johnson will likely see some action again if healthy.

More of a pocket passer compared with the dual-threat Johnson, Briscoe threw for a career-high 313 yards and three TDs last weekend.

With 147 yards, running back Corey Avery topped 100 for the fifth time in six games. He had 77 in five carries before suffering an injury against the Thunderbirds.

The Bearkats showcased their depth in that game as their third- and fourth-string backs each topped 100 yards. The team also rotates nine offensive linemen and four primary receivers.

"We know with eight teams left, they're going to all be good," Colgate coach Dan Hunt said. "It's tough for us right now. We're playing teams that more than likely have a little bit better skill than us."

The Raiders have countered that disadvantage in athleticism by staying disciplined and limiting turnovers. They've had two penalties and one giveaway in each of the last two games.

Colgate's 13 turnovers are among the fewest in the nation as are its five penalties per contest. That's helped the Raiders win their last seven games by an average of 5.6 points.

"(Colgate) thrives on people making mistakes. They thrive on you not doing your job," Keeler said.

This is the first matchup between Patriot League and Southland teams.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Army Black Knights (2-9) at Navy Midshipmen (9-2)

Date: December 12, 2015 3:00 PM EDT

It is said you can throw the records out in rivalry games, though it's hard to make that case when Army-Navy is the matchup in question.

The No. 21 Midshipmen have posted a record 13 straight victories in the series, and Keenan Reynolds can become the first quarterback to go 4-0 in the rivalry's history Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field.

Navy (9-2) has outscored Army 417-142 during the run that began after the Black Knights' 24-18 victory in 2001.

"If they talk amongst themselves, I allow them to prepare the best way they think they have to prepare themselves mentally but from my standpoint, I never talk about the streak," Navy coach Ken Niumatalolo said.

Army (2-9) again doesn't look like a formidable opponent with a four-game losing streak as part of its 18th losing season in 19 years. As has generally been the case during their skid in the series, however, the Black Knights have a chance to salvage a losing season by pulling a major upset.

"This football team has never lost to Navy and that is the way we have to approach it," said coach Jeff Monken, a Midshipman assistant from 2002-07. "These guys are not responsible for the last how many years it has been, they are responsible for this team and this year. We have to do our very best to try and win this year."

Reynolds has matched the FBS record for career touchdowns with 83 and needs one more to tie Georgia Southern's Adrian Peterson and Towson's Terrance West for the Division I mark. He is 65 rushing yards away from taking over third place on the all-time list for quarterbacks with 4,344 and narrowly missed out becoming a Heisman Trophy finalist.

More important to him is getting into the history books by beating Army for the fourth time.

"That'd be pretty awesome but it's not gonna happen just by showing up," Reynolds said.

Reynolds has run for five scores and thrown for another against Army. As a plebe in 2012, his eight-yard TD run in the fourth quarter was the difference in a 17-13 win and he rushed for 136 yards with three scores the next year in a 34-7 rout.

The Midshipmen needed Reynolds' one-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter a year ago to help them hold on for a 17-10 victory.

"I think there's great anticipation for this game every year," Reynolds said. "It's obviously the biggest game of the year for us so very excited to play and look forward to (Saturday)."

There is added incentive for Navy since a victory will allow it to regain the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy for sweeping games between the service academies. The Midshipmen lost the trophy last year by falling to Air Force, a team they beat 33-11 on Oct. 4.

The academies all use the triple-option attack. Navy is second in the nation with 330.1 rushing yards per game, Air Force is third at 322.1 and Army eighth at 254.0.

"I think (the Midshipmen's) biggest advantage is that they're familiar with playing the triple option," Black Knights running back Matt Giachinta said. "We play each other every year and they play Air Force every year. We have to make sure we do the little things right."

Army has started three quarterbacks, with Ahmad Bradshaw getting the nod for seven games and senior A.J. Schurr three before both were hurt. That led to Chris Carter starting a 31-21 loss to Rutgers on Nov. 21.

It's uncertain who Monken will go with Saturday.

Navy has had ample time to shake off the disappointment of a 52-31 defeat at then-No. 21 Houston on Nov. 27. That cost the Midshipmen a chance to play in the American Athletic Conference title game last Saturday.

This contest won't affect their bowl destination, with Reynolds closing out his regular season college career before Navy hosts Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl on Dec. 28.

Last year's Army-Navy game was played in Baltimore after the previous two were in Philadelphia.

"We recognize it's time for the biggest game of the year," Niumatalolo said. "We're excited to come back to the city of Philadelphia, I know our guys are looking forward to it."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Army vs. Navy

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen (-21.5, 50.5)

Game played at Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia

One of college football's great rivalries has barely resembled one of late as Army tries to snap a 13-game losing streak against No. 22 Navy on Saturday in Philadelphia, but oddsmakers don't give the Black Knights much of a chance after installing the Midshipmen a three-touchdown favorite. The biggest factor in Navy's favor is senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who is on the verge of becoming the most prolific scorer in NCAA Division I history.

Reynolds has scored all 83 of his touchdowns on the ground and needs two to break the combined FBS and FCS record for rushing TDs set by Georgia Southern's Adrian Peterson and Towson's Terrance West. He also needs one score to break the FBS record for total touchdowns, a mark he shares with former Wisconsin standout Ron Dayne and Louisiana Tech's Kenneth Dixon, who has one game remaining. If the Midshipmen defeat Army, they will have a chance to set a school record for wins in a season with 11 in the Military Bowl against Pittsburgh on Dec. 28, but the Black Knights will be eager to salvage their fifth straight losing season and 18th in the last 19. "If they talk amongst themselves, I allow them to prepare the best way they think they have to prepare themselves mentally but from my standpoint, I never talk about the streak," Midshipmen coach Ken Niumatalolo, who reportedly is a candidate to become coach at BYU, told reporters.

TV: 3 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: Books opened Navy as 22-point favorites but that has moved to -21.5. The total opened at 54 and is down to 50.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at around four miles per hour.

INJURY REPORT:

Navy - T Blake Copeland (Questionable, foot), CB Shelley White (Out for season, Achilles), S Kwazel Bertrand (Out for season, ankle), WR Marc Meier (Out for season, knee).

Army - QB A.J. Schurr (Probable, undisclosed), QB Ahmad Bradshaw (Probable, ankle), LB Alex Aukerman (Probable, undisclosed), RB John Trainor (Probable, shoulder), DB Rhyan England (Probable, knee), DL Andrew McLean (Out for season, foot), OL Drew Hennessy (Out for season, ankle), DB Josh Jenkins (Out for season, concussion).

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "Despite the 21.5-point spread that the Midshipmen need to overcome, the action is still almost 2-1 on Navy for bet count and money in Saturday’s 3pm ET Army/Navy game. The line has danced around a little between 23 and 21.5, however it appears to be quite stable at this point. With a spread of 21.5, and a total of 50.5, it’s obvious that there isn’t much faith in Army being able to score more than 10 points in the game." Mick Sloan.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "Navy is already locked into a bowl game as they play Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl on December 28th. Normally a team might get caught looking ahead in this situation, but Navy should remain focused for their arch rival Army as this game is actually a bigger game for the Midshipmen. This will be Army's "bowl" game as the Black Knights are just 2-9 SU this season. Army only has an 8% chance of winning this game straight-up, so the question becomes can they stay within the inflated pointspread of three full touchdowns. Normally, military teams make decent big underdogs as they run the ball and keep the clock moving. However, the negative is that once Army gets behind, they cannot catch up since they have no passing game. The line is inflated compared to prior matchups as Army has been just a +12 point underdog on average in the past nine meetings versus Navy, with an average loss by -17 points per game." Steve Merril.

ABOUT NAVY (9-2 SU, 8-3 ATS, 7-4 O/U): The Midshipmen boast a potent rushing attack with Reynolds (1,093 yards, 19 touchdowns) and senior fullback Chris Swain (847, 10). Navy would claim the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy - awarded to the service academy that wins the yearly round-robin competition - with a victory after defeating Air Force 33-11 earlier this season. The Midshipmen have been ranked for five straight weeks - their longest run since an all-season 12-week stretch in 1963.

ABOUT ARMY (2-9 SU, 4-6-1 ATS, 4-7 O/U): Coach Jeff Monken hasn't publicly named a starting quarterback for Saturday after freshman Chris Carter made his collegiate debut in a 31-21 loss to Rutgers on Nov. 21 - the Black Knights' fourth straight loss. Carter took over after injuries to sophomore Ahmad Bradshaw (468 rushing yards, five touchdowns) and senior A.J. Schurr (384 rushing yards, seven TDs) - Army's second- and third-leading runners. Junior Aaron Kemper has a team-high 506 rushing yards and three touchdowns while Edgar Poe has five TDs - the most by a Black Knights receiver since 2009.

TRENDS:

* Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.
* Midshipmen are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Black Knights are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 4-0 in Midshipmen last four games overall.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-three percent are backing Army.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Navy won its last 13 games with Army, but Cadets covered four of last six in this great rivalry. Army lost its last six games vs I-A teams; three of four losses were by 10 or less points- their only I-A win was 58-36 at Eastern Michigan Sept 26. Navy had 5-game win streak snapped in last game, 52-31 loss at Houston; Middies' last three wins are by 23+ points. Navy ran for 374+ yards in four of its last five games. Army is 0-4-2 vs spread in its last six games; Navy is 8-3 vs spread this season.