Saturday's Selections ... NOTE:
Man I feel good about everything right now.
I feel great about the Florida Gators today. I flat out love the NFL card on Sunday, and that is a very scary statement considering I am on a 17-2-2 run paid and comp plays the last 5 weeks.
All season long people were waiting for this kind of run from me and I think it's safe to say it's here and it's a huge winning run at that.
I've said all along it's a long season, and I have been doing this way too long not to know it was going to turn good, and when it did I was going to go on a winning streak of a lifetime.
Well I am smack dab in the middle of it, and now it's my job once again to step up big and deliver big on this Saturday card and keep this thing moving in a positive direction.
I was able to do that in November. Now I have to do that in December. I am as confident as ever I will continue to feed off the winning November and once December has come and gone, I will have closed out 2009 exactly the way I said I would.
With back to back winning months.
Now sit back and enjoy my breakdown of why the Florida Gators take care of the Alabama Crimson Tide by 10 points or more.
40 DIME - FLORIDA GATORS - Tim Tebow.
This entire game and whether or not Florida covers the number doesn't come down to Florida's defense or Alabama's defense. It comes down to one guy and one guy only.
Tim Tebow.
If he plays well, executes the spread against Alabama's defense, no doubt in my mind Florida wins this game by 10 points or more.
First and foremost, let's start with this pointspread number of under a touchdown the Gators will try to cover.
Over their last 40 wins, 38 of them have been by 6 points or more. Juggle that number around in your head for a minute you have some time.
Last year Alabama played about as well as they possibly could and still lost by 11 and that was with an experienced QB in John Parker Wilson. This year it's first year starter Greg McElroy, who now plays the biggest game of his entire life.
The bottom line is he hasn't seen a defense like this all year long. I am talking about the # 1 overall defense in the entire country in the Florida Gators.
Last week at Auburn the Crimson Tide struggled in their running game to the tune of just 72 yards rushing and that was against the # 80th run defense in the entire country. Now they step up to face the 8th best run defense in the country.
Yes, I am fully aware of Alabama's # 2 overall defense in the country but it's a defense Tebow has seen and will be ready for.
Folks, you can't discount the experience of Tim Tebow in this game. You just can't, and as this game unfolds right before your every eyes you will see what that experience will do for Florida in this football game.
Getting the Gators at this kind of value is value I can't pass up.
Since they lost to Georgia laying 7 1/2 back in 2007, the Gators have been a favorite of 7 points or less 4 times and they are a perfect 4-0 ATS.
They laid 7 1/2 at South Carolina at the end of the 2007 season and won 51-21. In 2008 they laid 7 1/2 at Tennessee and won 30-6, 3 games later they laid 6 1/2 at home to LSU and won 51-21 and in a payback game against Georgia laying 6 1/2 they won 49-10.
Other than that, you haven't gotten Florida laying single digits again.
This year you have had to lay 16 points or more in every single game except the -10 at LSU.
You have gotten no value with the Gators this year when you have been asked to lay 37, 30, 20 1/2, 24 1/2, 22, 16, 35, 17 1/2, 47 and 25.
I want you to think about the value you are getting with the Gators today. It's basically 3 years full of value and it's value I am willing to step out 40 dimes on.
Congrats to the Florida Gators as they deliver the double digit win and now get ready to face the Texas Longhorns in the National championship game.
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5 DIME - TEXAS LONGHORNS - (if line is 14 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and lay 14.) - Blowout. Absolute blowout.
This is as big of a mismatch as you can have all the way across the board.
Nebraska offensively has been a disaster all year long, and now they have to step up and find an offense against the best defensive opponent they will have faced all year long? It's a reciepe for a blowout.
Did you know 6 of the last 7 Big 12 Championship Games have been decided by 21 points or more? You might as well make it 7 of the last 8 because that is exactly where we are heading tonight.
What has Nebraska shown you this year offensively that leads you to believe they can so anything in this game to keep up with Texas?
In Big 12 play they were completely shut down at Missouri for 3 quarters until the Tigers offense turned it over 3 times in the 4th that got them to 27 points.
They scored 10 against Texas Tech, 9 points at home to Iowa State, a game they turned it over 8 times, 20 at Baylor, 10 against Oklahoma and 17 at Kansas State.
Their two biggest offensive outputs were 31 at Kansas, who's defense is ranked 74th overall and 28 last week at Colorado, who's defense is ranked 60th.
Let's see how they execute against the 5th best defense in the country for 60 minutes.
I am not the least bit worried about the Nebraska defense because the only offense they faced that comes near Texas is Texas Tech and the Cornhuskers were beaten soundly at home 31-10.
The bottom line folks is you don't struggle to score 10 points at home against the 48th ranked overall defense in Texas Tech, and go on to compete against the 2nd best team in the country who is playing to get into the biggest game of them all.
Longhorns roll with complete focus and get set to play the Gators for the National championship.
5 DIME - CONNECTICUT HUSKIES - (Note: If line is 7 1/2, you buy the 1/2 and get 7 ) - There is no way South Florida competes for 60 minutes in this game.
They just lost at home to their in-state rival Miami-Florida, 31-10 and now have to get on a plane and fly to the cold weather of Uconn and face a surging Huskies team.
I am talking about a UConn team that has one of the best ATS marks in the entire country this year.
Uconn has covered every single game this year with exception of their home game versus Rutgers. That is absolutely correct.
The Louisville game was bet down to 12 1/2 and 12 in some places and their 13 point win was enough to get the cover.
They have handled everyone and if you thought for one second there would be a letdown after their huge win over Notre Dame 2 weeks ago, you thought wrong.
They only came back home and completely hammered Syracuse to the tune of 56-31, and I fully believe it will be all systems go for Randy Edsalll's team in this game as well.
If South Florida some how shows up and competes and covers the number against one of the best pointspread teams in all of college football this year, so be it.
My dollar says they don't.
Uconn rolls large.
FREE SELECTION - CLEMSON TIGERS
