hno:Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
CONNECTICUT -7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the home side:
With a 7-5 mark the Bulls will be headed for a return trip to the St Petersburg Bowl, which is little more than a 45-minute bus ride across the causeway from the campus.
QB BJ Daniels is a work in progress; Daniels has been a typical redshirt freshman, great one week, not-so-much the next. Over the last four weeks, Daniels has produced 336 yards of total offense in a win over West Virginia, 140 yards in a loss to Rutgers, 345 in a win over Louisville, and 116 in the most recent loss to Miami.
Also working against the Bulls; it’s UConn's Senior Night and also Military and Veterans Appreciation Night. The school is pulling out all the stops to get a sellout crowd.
Keep in in mind that South Florida is a horrible 1-5 ATS its last six overall.
On the other side of the field: UConn has made it through five brutally tough losses and the death of a beloved teammate. It has won enough games to lock up a bowl bid, and helped to get Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis fired; I look for this team to end the season strong.
UConn may show a different defense than usual this weekend. South Florida features the mobile Daniels at QB, so containment will be a bigger focus than it was a week ago against Syracuse.
Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon will be counted on most heavily to control the game on the ground.
Remember, Connecticut is a smoking 6-1 ATS its last seven overall.
Bottom line: Another big factor playing a roll in the outcome of this game is that will feature freezing temperatures, and it's safe to say that the Bulls don't ever play in that kind of weather at home in Tampa; look for CONNECTICUT to improve to 4-1 ATS this year as a favorite, 6-1 ATS against conference opponents, and for South Florida to fall to 2-5 ATS vs. conference opponents.
*10* CONNECTICUT.
CONNECTICUT -7.5
For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this game is on the home side:
With a 7-5 mark the Bulls will be headed for a return trip to the St Petersburg Bowl, which is little more than a 45-minute bus ride across the causeway from the campus.
QB BJ Daniels is a work in progress; Daniels has been a typical redshirt freshman, great one week, not-so-much the next. Over the last four weeks, Daniels has produced 336 yards of total offense in a win over West Virginia, 140 yards in a loss to Rutgers, 345 in a win over Louisville, and 116 in the most recent loss to Miami.
Also working against the Bulls; it’s UConn's Senior Night and also Military and Veterans Appreciation Night. The school is pulling out all the stops to get a sellout crowd.
Keep in in mind that South Florida is a horrible 1-5 ATS its last six overall.
On the other side of the field: UConn has made it through five brutally tough losses and the death of a beloved teammate. It has won enough games to lock up a bowl bid, and helped to get Notre Dame coach Charlie Weis fired; I look for this team to end the season strong.
UConn may show a different defense than usual this weekend. South Florida features the mobile Daniels at QB, so containment will be a bigger focus than it was a week ago against Syracuse.
Jordan Todman and Andre Dixon will be counted on most heavily to control the game on the ground.
Remember, Connecticut is a smoking 6-1 ATS its last seven overall.
Bottom line: Another big factor playing a roll in the outcome of this game is that will feature freezing temperatures, and it's safe to say that the Bulls don't ever play in that kind of weather at home in Tampa; look for CONNECTICUT to improve to 4-1 ATS this year as a favorite, 6-1 ATS against conference opponents, and for South Florida to fall to 2-5 ATS vs. conference opponents.
*10* CONNECTICUT.
Larry Ness' 20* PERFECT STORM-CFB (9-3, 75% in CFB '09)-Sat
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on U Conn at 8:00 ET. USF (7-4) and U Conn (6-5) meet on Saturday with both teams trying to improve their bowl positions. For South Florida, the last three seasons have been deja vu. USF opened 6-0 in 2007 and opened as the No. 2 team in the nation in the first BCS standings but promptly lost its next three games. The Bulls would finish 9-4. In 2008, USF opened 5-0 but lost FIVE of its last seven regular season games before winning a bowl game to finish 8-5. This year, the Bulls again opened 5-0 but have lost FOUR of their last six games. U Conn is bowl-eligible for the third straight season, surviving the tragic death of Jasper Howard. Despite the loss of Donald Brown to the NFL's Colts (2,083 yards / 5.7 YPC / 18 TDs), the Huskies are still a run-first team, averaging 176.9 YPG (4.3 YPC / 27 TDs). Sophomore Todman has run for 1,079 yards (5.1 YPC / 14 TDs) and senior Dixon 917 yards (4.8 YPC / 11 TDs). In U Conn's first home game since Howard was stabbed to death outside a school dance on Oct 18, QB Cody Endres went down with an injury to his left shoulder against Rutgers. Backup QB Zach Frazer entered the game in the first quarter and threw for 333 yards and a TD. He led U Conn on two fourth-quarter TD drives after they trailed 21-10 (led 24-21). On a day Connecticut wanted badly to win for slain teammate Jasper Howard, one of Howard's best friends won it for Rutgers. WR Tim Brown, who grew up with Howard in Miami, scored on an 81-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to give the Scarlet Knights an improbable 28-24 victory over the Huskies. The Huskies have won TWO of three games since, averaging 39.5 PPG. They lost 47-45 at Cincy, while beating Notre Dame 33-30 in two OTs at South Bend and won 56-31 over Syracuse in Storrs. Frazer has averaged a more modest 191.7 YPG the last three games but unlike in the game vs Rutgers (three INTs), he's thrown four TDs and just two INTs. Todman has averaged 138.3 YPG on the ground the last three games (six TDs) while Dixon has averaged 93.5 YPG with four TDs in his last two. U Conn's pass D has been a 'nightmare' over the last three games, allowing 389.7 YPG and not intercepting a single pass in 123 attempts. However, that shouldn't be a concern against USF's freshman QB, BJ Daniels (Grothe went down for the season early in the year). USF has split four home games (lost 34-17 to Cincy and 31-10 to Miami), while losing both road games (41-14 at Pitt and 31-0 at Rutgers) over their last six games (since that 5-0 start). Daniels has completed 11-of-25 passes (44.0%) for just 170 yards with zero TDs and four INTs in USF's two road games. How can U Conn's pass D be worried? Overall, USF has posted 18 total FDs and just 185.5 total YPG in those two road efforts. These schools are almost 1,300 miles apart (biggest difference any two in the Big East) and it should come as no surprise that the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the schools' four Big East meetings. PERFECT STORM 20* U Conn
My 20* PERFECT STORM is on U Conn at 8:00 ET. USF (7-4) and U Conn (6-5) meet on Saturday with both teams trying to improve their bowl positions. For South Florida, the last three seasons have been deja vu. USF opened 6-0 in 2007 and opened as the No. 2 team in the nation in the first BCS standings but promptly lost its next three games. The Bulls would finish 9-4. In 2008, USF opened 5-0 but lost FIVE of its last seven regular season games before winning a bowl game to finish 8-5. This year, the Bulls again opened 5-0 but have lost FOUR of their last six games. U Conn is bowl-eligible for the third straight season, surviving the tragic death of Jasper Howard. Despite the loss of Donald Brown to the NFL's Colts (2,083 yards / 5.7 YPC / 18 TDs), the Huskies are still a run-first team, averaging 176.9 YPG (4.3 YPC / 27 TDs). Sophomore Todman has run for 1,079 yards (5.1 YPC / 14 TDs) and senior Dixon 917 yards (4.8 YPC / 11 TDs). In U Conn's first home game since Howard was stabbed to death outside a school dance on Oct 18, QB Cody Endres went down with an injury to his left shoulder against Rutgers. Backup QB Zach Frazer entered the game in the first quarter and threw for 333 yards and a TD. He led U Conn on two fourth-quarter TD drives after they trailed 21-10 (led 24-21). On a day Connecticut wanted badly to win for slain teammate Jasper Howard, one of Howard's best friends won it for Rutgers. WR Tim Brown, who grew up with Howard in Miami, scored on an 81-yard TD pass with 22 seconds left to give the Scarlet Knights an improbable 28-24 victory over the Huskies. The Huskies have won TWO of three games since, averaging 39.5 PPG. They lost 47-45 at Cincy, while beating Notre Dame 33-30 in two OTs at South Bend and won 56-31 over Syracuse in Storrs. Frazer has averaged a more modest 191.7 YPG the last three games but unlike in the game vs Rutgers (three INTs), he's thrown four TDs and just two INTs. Todman has averaged 138.3 YPG on the ground the last three games (six TDs) while Dixon has averaged 93.5 YPG with four TDs in his last two. U Conn's pass D has been a 'nightmare' over the last three games, allowing 389.7 YPG and not intercepting a single pass in 123 attempts. However, that shouldn't be a concern against USF's freshman QB, BJ Daniels (Grothe went down for the season early in the year). USF has split four home games (lost 34-17 to Cincy and 31-10 to Miami), while losing both road games (41-14 at Pitt and 31-0 at Rutgers) over their last six games (since that 5-0 start). Daniels has completed 11-of-25 passes (44.0%) for just 170 yards with zero TDs and four INTs in USF's two road games. How can U Conn's pass D be worried? Overall, USF has posted 18 total FDs and just 185.5 total YPG in those two road efforts. These schools are almost 1,300 miles apart (biggest difference any two in the Big East) and it should come as no surprise that the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the schools' four Big East meetings. PERFECT STORM 20* U Conn
