THE SPORTS ADVISORS
SATURDAY, DECEMBER 5
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SEC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(1) Florida (12-0, 6-5 ATS) vs. (2) Alabama (12-0, 7-5 ATS)
(at Atlanta)
For the second straight year, Florida and Alabama take undefeated records and the nation’s top two rankings into the Georgia Dome, with the winner claiming the SEC title and a coveted berth in the BCS Championship Game.
The Gators completed regular-season play with last Saturday’s 37-10 rout of Florida State, holding off a late Seminoles drive to cover as a 25½-point home favorite. In his final home game, QB Tim Tebow accounted for all five of his team’s touchdowns (three passing, two rushing) and 311 of his team’s 545 total yards, while the defense limited Florida State to 281 total yards. Florida had a 311-83 rushing edge.
Florida has the nation’s longest winning streak at 22 in a row – the longest in school history – with 20 of those victories being double-digit blowouts. The Gators are 15-5 ATS in lined action during their winning streak (all as a favorite), and they’ve held all 22 opponents to 21 points or less. Today, Urban Meyer’s team is gunning for its third league championship in the last four years.
The Crimson Tide barely kept their national championship hopes alive last week, rallying for a 26-21 victory over archrival Auburn, never threatening to cover as a 10-point road favorite. Alabama fell behind 14-0 less than 10 minutes into the game and didn’t lead until QB Greg McElroy hit Roy Upchurch with a 4-yard TD pass with 1:24 to play. Alabama got outgained 332-291, and despite having one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and the best rushing defense, the Tide were dominated on the ground by the Tigers (151-73). Star RB Mark Ingram had a season-low 30 yards on 16 carries and left on the game-winning drive because of a hip injury, but Ingram is expected to play today.
Alabama has gone undefeated each of the last two regular seasons (23 straight wins), but came up short in its last year’s SEC Championship Game against Florida (31-20 loss as a 10-pont underdog) followed by a blowout Sugar Bowl loss to Utah (31-17 as a 9½-point chalk).
This is the seventh meeting between these teams in the SEC Championship Game, with Florida going 4-2 SU and ATS in the previous six. Last year in this event, Tebow had 216 passing yards and three touchdown passes and also led Florida in rushing (57 yards) in the 11-point win. The Crimson Tide actually had a 20-17 lead going into the fourth quarter before the Gators scored twice in a 6½-minute span to get the win and the narrow spread-cover.
The Gators also defeated Alabama 28-13 in the 2006 regular season, but failed to cover as a 16½-point home chalk. In fact, even with last year’s non-cover, the Tide are still on a 7-1-1 ATS run in this rivalry, all as an underdog.
Florida’s offense averages 36.5 points and 451.3 total yards per game, including 236.7 rushing yards per game (5.6 per carry). However, the Gators were held under 30 points in six of their eight SEC victories (average of 27.6 ppg). Tebow had a stellar senior season both through the air (66.4 percent completions, 2,166 passing yards, 17 TDs, 4 INTs) and on the ground (796 rushing yards, 4.1 yards per carry, 13 TDs).
Alabama was inconsistent offensively all season, scoring 31 points or more in eight of 12 games while averaging just 19.5 ppg during a four-game stretch of SEC contests in the middle of the season. For the season, the Tide put up 31.7 points and 407.6 total yards per game, including 213.1 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). While McElroy has had a solid season (60.8 percent completions, 2,211 yards, 16 TDs, 4 INTs), the key to the offense has been Ingram, who ranks sixth in the nation in rushing (1,429 yards, 119.1 ypg), averaging 6.5 ypc with 12 TDs. He also averaged 8.8 yards on 28 receptions with three additional TDs.
These teams field the nation’s top two stop units. Florida ranks first in scoring defense (9.8 ppg allowed), first in total defense (233.1 ypg), first in passing defense (143.2 ypg), eighth in rushing defense (89.9 ypg), first in rushing TDs allowed (6) and second in passing TDs allowed (6). Alabama is second in scoring defense (10.8 ppg), third in total defense (234.1 ypg), second in rushing defense (77.3 ypg), fifth in passing defense (156.8 ypg), fourth in rushing TDs allowed (5) and fourth in passing TDs allowed (8). The Gators held nine of 12 opponents to 14 points or less – including the last four in a row – while the Crimson Tide limited nine of 12 opponents to 15 points less.
In addition to their 15-5 ATS mark during their 22-game winning streak, the Gators are on ATS runs of 21-8 as a favorite, 4-0 at neutral sites (all as a favorite), 6-0 as a chalk of 3½ to 10 points and 20-6 versus winning teams, but they did fail to cover in four of their last five SEC contests.
Alabama went just 2-4 ATS down the stretch and is 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a ‘dog of 3½ to 10 points, but the Tide are 17-9 ATS in their last 26 overall, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 away from Tuscaloosa and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against SEC opponents.
The over is 6-2 in Florida’s last eight neutral-site games, but otherwise the Gators are riding “under” streaks of 8-2 overall, 8-1 in conference play, 7-1 against winning teams and 7-0 when coming off a spread-cover. Alabama carries “under” trends of 5-1-1 overall, 4-1 as an underdog, 8-2-1 in conference play and 13-6 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. Lastly, the under is 4-2 in the last six meetings in this rivalry, with last year’s SEC Championship Game barely staying under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA and UNDER
BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(3) Texas vs. (21) Nebraska
(at Arlington, Texas)
Texas looks to lock up the Big 12 title and a bid in the BCS Championship game opposite the Florida-Alabama winner when it battles Nebraska for the league crown at Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
The Longhorns concluded the regular season with a tougher-than-expected 49-39 victory over Texas A&M on Thanksgiving night, failing to cover as a 20½-point road favorite. Texas fell behind 7-0 just 75 seconds into the game, but never trailed thereafter, although the Aggies closed within 42-39 with 7:10 remaining before the Longhorns returned a kickoff 95 yards to ice the victory. Senior QB Colt McCoy had a monster night, going 24-for-40 for 304 yards with four TDs, while also rushing 18 times for 175 yards and another score. Although Texas finished with 597 yards, its normally stout defense got carved up for a season-high 532 yards.
Since a 16-13 win over rival Oklahoma as a three-point favorite on Oct. 17 in Dallas, the Longhorns have scored, 41, 41, 35, 57, 51 and 49 points in their last six outings – winning those six games by an average of 27.8 points – while going 4-2 ATS (4-1 ATS in Big 12 play). McCoy has guided Texas to a 30-2 record since October 2007, with the only losses being upset defeats on the road at instate foes Texas Tech (39-33 last year, giving up the winning touchdown with one second left) and Texas A&M (38-30 in the 2007 regular-season finale).
Nebraska clinched the Big 12 North title with a 17-3 home win over Kansas on Nov. 21, then wrapped up the regular season with last Friday’s 28-20 victory at Colorado, extending its winning streak to five in a row. The Cornhuskers failed to cover as a 10-point road chalk last week when they surrendered a 56-yard TD pass on the final play of the game, dropping to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Prior to the final play against the Buffaloes, Nebraska had a whopping 403-161 edge in total offense, and it scored more than 20 points for just the third time in eight Big 12 games.
This is Texas’ first appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game since 2005, when it routed Colorado 70-3 as a 26½-point favorite en route to the national championship. Nebraska last appeared in this contest in 2006, losing 21-7 to Oklahoma as a 3½-point ‘dog.
The teams have split two meetings in the Big 12 title game, with Texas winning 37-27 as a massive 20½-point underdog in 1996, and Nebraska prevailing 22-6 as an eight-point chalk in 1999. The Longhorns have has won all four meetings against the Cornhuskers this decade, most recently squeaking out a 28-25 win in 2007, falling way short as a 20½-point home favorite. While the Longhorns have won four in a row and seven of eight in this rivalry dating to 1996, Nebraska is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four series clashes. Additionally, the underdog is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight battles.
With McCoy (71.8 percent completions, 3,328 yards, 27 TDs, 9 INTs) leading the charge, Texas is third in the nation in scoring (43 ppg), 11th in total offense (451.5 total ypg) and 13th in passing offense (287.7 ypg), while also churning out 163.8 rushing ypg. Despite the inability to slow Texas A&M last week, the Longhorns’ defense is still yielding just 15.4 ppg (9th), 264 total ypg (5th) and 62.6 rushing ypg (1st). Opposing ball-carriers average just 2 yards per tote against Texas, the lowest average in the nation, and the ‘Horns have given up just five rushing TDs all season.
The Huskers netted only 18.8 ppg in eight Big 12 contests, and for the season they’ve averaged 100 less passing yards per game (187.4) than Texas. However, Nebraska’s defense carried the team all year, allowing more than 20 points just once (in a 31-10 home loss to Texas Tech). The Huskers rank third in the nation behind Florida and Alabama in scoring defense, yielding just 11.1 ppg, and they’re 11th in total defense (291.4 ypg).
Texas is on ATS hot streaks of 4-2-1 overall (4-1-1 in conference), 7-2-1 at neutral sites and 4-0-1 when playing on artificial turf, but the Longhorns are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight against winning teams. The Huskers’ 2-5 ATS slump has all come in conference play, but they’re 4-1 ATS in their last five as an underdog (3-0 last three), 7-2 ATS in their last nine away from Lincoln, Neb., and they’ve cashed in seven of 10 versus winning teams.
The Longhorns are on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in Big 12 action, 4-1 on artificial turf and 5-2 in December, but the under is 5-2 in their last seven at neutral venues. With its strong defense and sub-par offense, it’s no surprise to learn Nebraska is in the midst of “under” streaks of 10-3 overall, 6-2 in Big 12 play, 6-2 in December, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-0 on artificial turf. Also, five of the last six Nebraska-Texas battles have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(12) Georgia Tech (10-2, 7-4 ATS) vs. (25) Clemson (8-4, 7-4 ATS)
(at Tampa, Fla.)
The Tigers look to avenge an early-season loss at Georgia Tech as these teams square off in the ACC Championship Game at Raymond James Stadium.
Both squads saw long winning streaks halted last week with non-conference losses to instate rivals. Clemson’s six-game run ended with Saturday’s 34-17 setback at South Carolina as a three-point road favorite, getting outgained 388-260, including 223-48 on the ground). Later that night, the Yellow Jackets fell to Georgia 30-24 as an eight-point home favorite, ending an eight-game win streak as they were outgained 415-340, including 339-205 in rushing.
Georgia Tech opened up ACC play with a wild 30-27 victory over Clemson, falling short as a five-point favorite, then lost the next week at Miami (33-17 as a four-point underdog) before ripping off eight consecutive wins (7-1 ATS), including seven in conference (6-1 ATS) to claim the Coastal Division title. The Tigers started out 2-3 (1-2 in ACC action) before going on a six-game winning streak (5-0 in the ACC) to rally for their first Atlantic Division crown. Clemson hasn’t won an ACC title since 1991.
When these teams hooked up in the second week of the season in Atlanta on Sept. 10, Georgia Tech jumped out to a 24-0 lead less than 20 minutes into the game, getting an 82-yard touchdown run and an 85-yard punt return for a score in the first quarter. However, the Tigers clawed back and actually jumped ahead 27-24 early in the fourth quarter before the Yellow Jackets got two field goals of 34 and 36 yards, the last coming with 57 seconds remaining, to steal the win. The Yellow Jackets had a 418-386 advantage in total offense, rushing for 301 yards. Both QBs – Clemson’s Kyle Parker (15-for-31, 261 yards, 3 TDs) and Tech’s Josh Nesbitt (3-for-14, 83 passing yards, 91 rushing yards) – threw two interceptions.
The Yellow Jackets have won three in a row and five of the last six in this rivalry, with the teams splitting the cash during this stretch. The underdog is on an incredible 17-4 ATS run in this series (13-2 ATS last 15).
While this is Clemson’s first ACC title game appearance, Georgia Tech appeared in the 2006 contest, falling to Wake Forest 9-6 as a 2½-point favorite.
After the 33-17 loss in Miami on Sept. 17, the Yellow Jackets scored at least 24 points in each of their final nine games. For the season, they averaged 35 ppg (scoring 30 or more eight times) and 440.5 total ypg, ranking second in the nation in rushing offense (305 ypg) and rushing TDs (43). Despite getting torched by Georgia, the defense has been solid all year, giving up just 19.5 points and 304.5 total yards per game, including a paltry 169.4 passing ypg.
Clemson has averaged 38.3 ppg in its eight victories (scoring at least 25 points in every contest) but was held to 18.8 ppg in its four losses. Defensively, the Tigers have been inconsistent this year, giving up 14 points or less five times while surrendering 24 or more five times. In their final four games, they gave up an average of 25.8 points, 357.5 total yards and 141.8 rushing ypg.
Georgia Tech has failed to cover in four straight games in December, four of five at neutral sites and four in a row when laying points at neutral sites, but otherwise the Jackets are on positive ATS streaks of 15-7 under second-year coach Paul Johnson (7-2 last nine), 5-1 in conference, 5-2 as a favorite, 3-0-1 when laying three points or less and 3-1-1 after an ATS setback. The Tigers are on ATS tears of 10-5 overall since the middle of last season, 8-2 in the ACC, 17-4 as an underdog (2-0 as a pup this year), 6-1 as a ‘dog of three points or less and 4-1 after a SU loss. However, like Georgia Tech, Clemson has struggled in December (0-4 ATS last four) and at neutral sites (0-4 ATS last four).
The Jackets are on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 3-0-1 in ACC play, 3-1-1 as a favorite and 10-3 when laying three points or less. Clemson has topped the total in four straight games overall, four straight SEC contests and four straight as an underdog, but the under is 4-0 in its last four neutral-site outings. Finally, these teams easily eclipsed the total back in September, ending a 4-0 “under” stretch in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
CONFERENCE USA CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
(18) Houston (10-2, 8-3 ATS) at East Carolina (8-4, 5-6 ATS)
Heisman Trophy candidate Case Keenum leads Houston into Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Greenville, N.C., for a battle with the Pirates, who get the advantage of defending their 2008 Conference USA championship on their home field.
In their last road game on Nov. 14, the Cougars suffered a 37-32 upset loss to Central Florida as a 3½-point favorite, but they returned home the last two weeks and got healthy in a big way, clobbering Memphis (55-14 as a 22-point chalk) and Rice (73-14 as a 30-point favorite). In those two games, Keenum completed 54 of 70 passes (77 percent) for 728 yards with seven TDs and no INTs, as Houston gained 689 yards against Memphis and 684 versus Rice, while allowing just 344 and 377, respectively. By easily cashing in both victories, the Cougars snapped a two-game ATS slide and improved to 6-2 ATS in their last eight.
East Carolina claimed the C-USA East Division title with a 25-20 home win over Southern Miss last Saturday, coming up just short as a six-point favorite. The Pirates blew a 20-7 lead and found themselves tied at 20-20 with 7:35 to play when they blocked an extra-point attempt and returned it the other way for the game-deciding two points. East Carolina has won three in a row, five of its last six and seven of its last nine, including taking five straight league games (four of them by double digits).
The Pirates get to host this contest because they finished 7-1 in league play (5-3 ATS), while Houston went 6-2 (5-3 ATS). A year ago, East Carolina went to Tulsa as a 12½-point underdog for the Conference USA title tilt and scored a shocking 27-24 win, while the Cougars are returning to the league championship game for the first time since 2006.
These schools did not meet in the regular season this year. Last season, Houston traveled to Greenville and rolled to a 41-24 upset win as a 10½-point road underdog, piling up 619 total yards and allowing just 275, with Keenum going 37-for-45 for 401 yards, three TDs and one INT. Going back to 2003, the Cougars have won three of the last four meetings, including consecutive wins and covers at East Carolina. Still, the Pirates are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes. Also, the underdog has covered in the last three (2-1 SU), and the visitor is on a 5-0 ATS roll.
Houston, which racked up at least 29 points in every game this season and at least 41 eight times, leads the nation in scoring offense (44.9 ppg), total offense (583.3 ypg), passing offense (443.6 ypg) and passing TDs (41). Keenum has been remarkable, completing 70.5 percent of his throws for 4,920 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs. On the defensive side, the Cougars surrender 28 points and 445.2 total yards per game, including a whopping 218.2 rushing ypg, though they did limit four of their last seven opponents (all Conference USA) to 16 points or less.
During their five-game conference winning streak, the Pirates have averaged 38.6 points and 448 total yards per game while giving up only 18 ppg. Including a 16-3 non-conference home loss to Virginia Tech, East Carolina has held six straight opponents – and eight of the last nine – to 21 points or less. QB Patrick Pickney leads the offense, completing only 59.2 percent of his passes for 2,476 yards with 13 TDs and 10 INTs, but the Pirates do net 149.5 rushing ypg. On defense, ECU gives up just 21.2 points, 371.3 total yards and 131.1 rushing yards per game (3.8 ypc).
The Cougars are on ATS runs of 9-3 overall going back to last year’s bowl-game win over Air Force, 5-2 as a favorite, 5-2 in conference, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-1 when playing on grass and 4-0 when coming off a victory of more than 20 points. East Carolina has cashed in four of five Conference USA contests and 21 of 31 as an underdog, but it is 1-5 ATS in its last six against opponents with a winning record.
High-scoring Houston is on “over” tears of 4-1 overall (all in conference), 8-2 against winning teams and 7-1 after a victory of more than 20 points. The over is also 4-1 in East Carolina’s last five, and five of the last six in this rivalry – including three straight at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium – have soared over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and OVER
(5) Cincinnati (11-0, 5-5 ATS) at (14) Pitt (9-2, 6-4 ATS)
In what amounts to a Big East championship game, the fifth-ranked Bearcats head to Heinz Field to take on Pitt, with the winner capturing the conference crown and automatic BCS bowl berth.
Cincinnati welcomed back starting quarterback Tony Pike (arm injury) last Friday, and all Pike did was throw for 399 yards and a record six touchdowns in his first start in more than a month, leading his team to a 49-36 non-conference home win over Illinois. However, the Bearcats came up short as an 18½-point favorite, their third straight non-cover following a 3-0 ATS run. Cincy has now scored more than 40 points five times this year.
Pitt traveled to West Virginia last Friday for the 102nd edition of the Backyard Brawl and lost 19-16 as a one-point road underdog, ending a six-game winning streak. The Panthers battled back from a 16-6 fourth-quarter deficit to tie the game, but West Virginia had the ball last and kicked a 43-yard field goal as time expired to end it. Pitt was held to a season low in points – it had scored at least 24 points in each of its first 10 games – and got outgained 369-325, including 205-146 on the ground.
Cincinnati (6-0) sits alone atop the Big East standings, with Pittsburgh (5-1) all by itself in second place, meaning the winner of this game claims the conference title.
The Bearcats lost three straight times to Pitt after joining the Big East in 2005, going 0-3 ATS, but they ended that slide last year with a 28-21 home win as a six-point favorite. The chalk is 3-1 SU and ATS in the four series meetings, with the winner covering the spread in each contest.
Cincinnati fields one of the most prolific offenses in the country, ranking sixth in scoring (39.4 ppg), fourth in total offense (472.7 ypg) and sixth in passing offense (322 ypg), and the Bearcats even net 150.8 rushing ypg (5.2 per carry). Pike and backup QB Zach Collaros have combined to throw for 3,581 yards with 33 TDs against just five INTs.
Pitt is putting up 32.2 ppg with a balanced attack that nets 218.9 passing ypg and 183 rushing ypg (5.2 ypc). QB Bill Stull has been efficient, with nearly 2,300 passing yards and a 19-6 TD-to-INT ratio.
Cincinnati’s defense is really struggling down the stretch, giving up per-game averages of 34 points, 442.7 total yards and 190.7 rushing yards over the past three contests. The Bearcats held their first eight opponents to 20 points or less, giving up an average of only 12.9 ppg. Meanwhile, Pitt’s defense has held seven straight opponents to 22 points or less, giving up an average of just 16.1 ppg during this stretch. For the season, the Panthers yield just 319.6 total ypg and 112 rushing ypg (3.3 per carry).
The Bearcats are on ATS runs of 8-3 in Big East action, 4-1 on the road, 16-7-1 against winning teams and 28-11-1 on the road versus opponents that have a winning home record. Pitt is on positive pointspread surges of 5-2 at home, 6-2 in conference, 10-3 on grass and 5-1 after a non-cover, but they’re 17-35 ATS in their last 52 after an outright loss.
The over is 13-6-1 in Cincinnati’s last 20 road games, but five of its last seven in December have stayed low. Also, Pitt carries “under” trends of 6-1 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 as an underdog, 7-3 as a home pup and 4-1 in December. Conversely, three of the four meetings between these teams have gone over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
South Florida (7-4, 3-6 ATS) at UConn (6-5, 9-1 ATS)
UConn looks to close the regular season with its third straight victory when it entertains the Bulls in the Big East finale for both squads.
South Florida jumped out to a 5-0 start to the season – including a stunning 17-7 upset at Florida State to end September – but it has since dropped four of six games, including Saturday’s ugly 31-10 loss to Miami (Fla.) as a 3½-point home favorite. A week after outgaining Louisville 538-313 in a 34-22 rout at home, the Bulls finished on the short end of a 401-220 yardage deficit (240-143 rushing) against the Hurricanes.
The Huskies have rebounded from three heartbreaking losses to West Virginia (28-24), Rutgers (28-24) and Cincinnati (47-45) with a pair of impressive wins. They defeated Notre Dame 33-30 as a six-point road underdog on Nov. 21, then hosted lowly Syracuse last week and rolled 56-31 as a 13½-point home favorite. In the win over the Orange, UConn got out-yarded by a hefty margin (489-377), but it scored touchdowns on an 80-yard kickoff return and a 24-yard fumble recovery.
The home team has won five straight meetings in this rivalry (4-0-1 ATS), with the Bulls taking a 17-13 decision as a three-point chalk last year. These squads have met four times since each became members of the Big East in 2005, and three of those four were decided by a total of 15 points.
South Florida has scored 17, 14, 0 and 10 points in its four losses, while averaging 37 ppg in its seven victories. Similarly, the defense has surrendered a total of 137 points in the losses (34.3 ppg), compared with just 88 points in the wins (12.6 ppg). All 11 of the Bulls’ games have been decided by double digits, with the SU winner going 9-0 ATS in the nine lined contests.
While South Florida has been involved in blowouts all year, UConn has seen five of its last seven games decided by seven points or fewer, and eight of its 10 lined contests have been decided by eight points or fewer. The Huskies’ five losses have been by a total of 15 points.
The Bulls are in ATS slumps of 1-5 overall, 1-4 in conference play, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-4 as an underdog. On the flip side, UConn has the best pointspread mark in football this year at 9-1 and is on further ATS runs of 10-1 going back to last year, 20-8 at home, 5-1 in conference, 4-1 as a favorite and 3-1 as a home chalk.
The over is 5-1 in South Florida’s last six conference games, but otherwise the Bulls carry “under” marks of 6-2 on the road, 12-5 as an underdog and 5-1 in December. UConn has topped the total in six straight games overall, three straight at home, three straight as a favorite, four straight as a home chalk and five straight in Big East play.
The under is 3-1 in the last four series meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UCONN
West Virginia (8-3, 4-6 ATS) at Rutgers (8-3, 5-4 ATS)
The Mountaineers head to Piscataway, N.J., looking for their 15th straight victory over Rutgers in the Big East finale for two teams looking to improve their bowl positioning.
West Virginia is coming off its biggest win of the season, a 19-16 victory over rival Pitt as a one-point home favorite, getting a 43-yard field goal as time expired. RB Noel Devine ran for 134 yards, including an 88-yard scamper for the game’s first touchdown. The Mountaineers are 7-0 SU in Big East play during Devine’s three-year career when he rushes for at least 90 yards.
The Scarlet Knights could vault themselves into Gator Bowl consideration with a victory today. Rutgers has won eight of 10 (6-4 ATS) since a season-opening blowout loss to Cincinnati. Last weekend the Scarlet Knights went to Louisville and dominated the Cardinals 34-14 as three-point road favorites. RB Mohamed Sanu rushed for 148 yards and two touchdowns, and QB Tom Savage threw for 163 yards and a score, with WR Tim Brown accounting for 124 of those yards and the TD.
West Virginia has dominated this series, going 30-4-2 all-time against Rutgers, winning the last 14 games by an average of 26.6 points. The Scarlet Knights are 4-2 ATS in the last six, though, including cashing as a 14-point underdog in last year’s 24-17 loss at West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 3-1 ATS in their last four trips to New Jersey, including a dominating 31-3 win as a 6½-point road favorite in 2007. The visitor has gotten the cash in each of the last four contests and five of the last six.
The Mountaineers have followed up a 1-6 ATS slump with back-to-back spread covers, but they’re still on ATS slides of 3-14 after a spread-cover, 0-4 in December and 3-8 against teams with winning records. Rutgers is just 1-3 ATS at home this year, but otherwise is on pointspread tears of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 in December, 4-1 against winning teams, 7-3 in Big East action and 9-3-1 after a straight-up win.
West Virginia is on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall and 6-2 in the Big East, but it is also on “over” runs of 7-1 as an underdog and 5-2 on the road against teams with a winning home record. The Scarlet Knights have topped the total in seven of 10 Big East games and four of five December contests, but they are on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 3-0 at home, 6-1 after a straight-up win and 3-1 as a home chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Arizona (7-4, 5-5 ATS) at USC (8-3, 3-8 ATS)
The Wildcats head to Southern California to take on the Trojans in the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum with nothing on the line for either squad except their final spot in the Pac-10 conference.
Both teams could end up as high as second or as low as sixth in the final league standings, which is used to determine bowl slots. Regardless of the outcome today, this will be USC’s lowest win total since 2001, and its run of seven straight conference titles (outright or shared) has come to an end.
The Trojans beat crosstown rival UCLA a week ago 28-7 as a 13-point favorite. QB Matt Barkley threw for 206 yards, his highest total in five games, and RB Allen Bradford rushed for two scores in the victory. The Trojans are just 2-2 (1-3 ATS) in their last four games, including blowout losses to Oregon (47-20 on the road) and Stanford (55-21 at home).
Arizona rebounded from a heartbreaking 44-41 double-overtime home loss to Oregon and beat instate rival Arizona State a week ago 20-17 but failed to cover as a 3½-point favorite, with kicker Alex Zendjas drilling the game-winning 32-yard field goal as time expired. The Wildcats offense managed just 265 yards in the win, and QB Nick Foles passed for just 148 yards while injuring his non-throwing hand. He is expected to play today.
USC has won seven straight in this rivalry but has have failed to cash in any of the last four. Also, the Trojans are just 1-4 ATS in the last five battles with Arizona at the Coliseum, including a 20-13 win in 2007 as a 21-point favorite. Last season, USC went to Tucson and prevailed 17-10, but came up short as a 14-point chalk.
Arizona is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight roadies and 2-5 ATS in its last seven after a straight-up win, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 8-3 as a ‘dog, 16-6 after a non-cover and 9-4 against teams with winning records. USC ended a five-game ATS slide last week against the hated Bruins, but it still carries a plethora of negative ATS trends, including 2-8 overall (all as a favorite), 2-9 in Pac-10 action, 4-8 in Pac-10 home games, 0-7 after a spread-cover and 1-4 in December.
The Wildcats have stayed below the posted total in four of five overall (all in the Pac-10) and four straight in December, but they are on “over” runs of 4-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 on the highway. The Trojans are on several “under” streaks, including 23-11-1 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 27-13-1 as a favorite, 34-15-2 in Pac-10 action and 22-7 following a spread-cover. Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” has been the play each of the last three years.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
California (8-3, 5-5 ATS) at Washington (4-7, 6-5 ATS)
The Golden Bears will try to close the regular season with three straight wins when they visit Husky Stadium in Seattle to take on Washington in the Pac-10 finale for both schools.
After back-to-back losses to open the conference schedule, Cal has bounced back to win five of six (3-3 ATS), with the only loss coming at home to now-No. 13 Oregon State. The Golden Bears took last week off after upsetting rival Stanford 34-28 in Palo Alto, Calif., as seven-point underdogs on Nov. 21. They rushed for 242 yards in the win, with Shane Vereen – subbing for injured star RB Jahvid Best – doing most of the damage with 193 yards and three touchdowns on 42 carries.
Washington blanked rival Washington State 30-0 a week ago, covering as a 24½-point home favorite. The win snapped a four-game losing streak (1-3 ATS) in Pac-10 action for the Huskies, who have still lost six of their last eight (4-4 ATS). QB Jake Locker threw for 196 yards and a TD and rushed for 94 yards and a score in the win over the Cougars.
Cal thumped the Huskies 48-7 as a 35-point home favorite a year ago and the Bears have won six of the last seven in this series (5-2 ATS) and cashed in seven of the last nine dating to 2000. The home team has won each of the last three meetings, including Washington’s 37-23 upset as a 6½-point ‘dog in 2007, Cal’s most recent trip to Seattle. Prior to that, however, the Bears had cashed in five consecutive visits to Husky Stadium.
Cal is on ATS slides of 1-4 on turf, 3-9 as a road chalk, 2-7 when laying points to league foes and 4-8 in Pac-10 road games, but it is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. The Huskies are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December games, but otherwise it’s all negative ATS trends for Washington, including 6-15 overall, 16-35-2 at home, 26-57-2 in Pac-10 action, 7-22 after a spread-cover and 8-20 at home against teams with winning home records.
For the Golden Bears, the “over” is on streaks of 7-3 on the road, 5-2 as a road favorite, 5-0 against teams with losing records and 3-1 after a spread-cover. Washington is on “over” runs of 7-2 in December, 12-5 at home, 8-2 after a spread-cover and 4-1 against teams with winning records. In this series, the “over” has been the play in six straight overall, while four of the last five in Washington have soared past the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(10) North Carolina (7-1, 3-4 ATS) at (5) Kentucky (7-0, 2-3 ATS)
The Wildcats put their perfect record on the line this afternoon as defending-champion North Carolina comes calling to Rupp Arena for an annual non-conference clash.
The Tar Heels have rebounded nicely from their first defeat of the season – an ugly 87-71 loss to Syracuse in a preseason tournament at Madison Square Garden – posting three straight wins. Most recently, they toppled Michigan State 89-82 as a two-point home favorite on Tuesday in a rematch of last year’s national championship game. Coach Roy Williams’ young squad has scored 80 points or more in six of its first eight games, averaging 87.3 points during the current three-game winning streak. The Heels are making 52.5 percent of their shots this year, but they’ve surrendered an average of 72.2 points per game, with opposing teams shooting 41.4 percent.
North Carolina has tallied at least 70 points in 45 of 46 contests since the start of last season, hitting the 80-point mark 36 times during this stretch. Also, since the final game of the 2006-2007 regular season, the Heels are 84-9 SU.
Kentucky has feasted on a cupcake schedule to this point, as it has faced just one quality opponent. That was Stanford back on Nov. 25 in a preseason tourney in Cancun, and the Wildcats survived 73-65 in overtime, outscoring the Cardinal 10-2 in the extra session but still falling short as a 10-point favorite. Following that contest, John Calipari’s crew came home on Monday and dismantled North Carolina-Ashville 94-57 in a non-lined game. Kentucky has topped the 70-point mark in every game this season, shooting a sizzling 51.5 percent from the field, while holding opponents to 65 ppg (36.5 percent shooting).
These historical programs have met in non-conference action every year this decade, and after Kentucky won the first four (3-0-1 ATS), North Carolina has come back to take the last five (5-0 ATS). Last year, the Tar Heels cruised to a 77-58 win, barely covering as an 18½-point home favorite. The last time UNC went to Rupp Arena in 2007, it prevailed 86-77, again cashing by a half-point as an 8½-point chalk.
The Tar Heels have failed to cover in four of their last five true road games, but otherwise they’re on a slew of positive ATS runs, including 9-4 overall, 41-14 in non-conference play, 9-1-1 versus the SEC and 8-1 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Kentucky has cashed in 13 of 19 on Saturday, but is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven against ACC foes.
Carolina is on “over” stretches of 4-1 overall and 6-2 on the road, but the Wildcats have stayed low in eight of 10 overall, four of five at home and five of seven non-league contests. Finally, the last two meetings at Rupp Arena went over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA