Saturday's Top Action
MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (9-0) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-1)
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Alabama -8, Total: 52
Top-ranked Mississippi State looks to keep its flawless season going in a tough road matchup against No. 4 Alabama on Saturday afternoon.
The Bulldogs have won each of their nine games this season SU by an average of 20.1 PPG, but are a pedestrian 5-4 ATS. While they have had some easier games on the schedule, they have also had to face some of the tougher SEC programs on their way to a perfect record and over three straight contests defeated LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn who were all ranked in the top-8 when the meeting occurred. Last week, MSU had a breeze of a game versus UT-Martin with a 45-16 victory as a 44-point favorite. The Bulldogs dropped 520 yards of offense on the helpless Skyhawks while averaging 7.9 YPC on the ground 9.9 yards per pass attempt. The Crimson Tide are once again unsurprisingly one of the top programs in the nation with their one SU loss on the year coming on the road against a tough Ole Miss team. They have won four straight games (2-2 ATS) since that setback, including a 59-0 romp versus Texas A&M, but are a mere 3-5-1 ATS on the season.
Last week, Alabama went into Baton Rouge and beat a great Tigers team by a score of 20-13 in overtime while barely covering the 6.5-points it was giving. It took a field goal in the final seconds of regulation to push the game into OT as the two schools combined for just 574 yards of offense while each had a turnover. The Tide have owned this matchup at 16-6 SU since 1992, but MSU holds the 14-8 ATS advantage during this timeframe. But recently it has been all Alabama, which has prevailed in each of the past six seasons (4-2 ATS) by an average of 22.3 PPG. Last season the Crimson Tide failed to cover the 22.5-point spread in a 20-7 defeat because they turned the ball over four times, but held the Bulldogs offense to a meager 197 yards of offense. Trends show that Alabama is a poor 23-41 ATS (36%) in home game off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992 while also being 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents in the past two seasons. Much of Mississippi State's success has spurred from its team staying healthy as they have no omissions from their lineup due to injury. HB T.J. Yeldon (knee) and OL Alphonse Taylor (concussion) are both questionable for Alabama in this big SEC matchup.
Mississippi State has surprised many with its stellar play, and it starts with an offense that has gained 267.2 YPG in the air and 254.9 YPG on the ground (16th in FBS); leading to the 12th-most points in the nation (39.8 PPG). QB Dak Prescott (2,231 pass yards, 18 TD, 7 INT) has been mentioned in Heisman talks as he has thrown at least one touchdown in each game this year while getting between 200 and 300 yards in 8-of-9 contests. He can really mess with opposing defenses with his ability to run the ball and has rumbled for 779 yards on 143 attempts (5.4 YPC) and 11 TD while having at least 13 carries in seven games this year. Prescott is joined in the backfield with an even more talented runner as HB Josh Robinson (984 rush yards, 11 TD) has averaged 6.7 YPC this season with 100+ rushing yards on four different occasions. He’s a threat to catch passes too, as he has amassed 278 yards on 19 grabs this season (14.9 avg).
The team has really spread the ball around in the air attack, as eight different receivers have between 10 and 22 catches. WR De’Runnya Wilson (367 rec yards, 6 TD) leads the charge while failing to catch a ball in his last game. The defense has looked solid for this team, as it has allowed only 19.7 PPG (16th in nation) behind the solid play of LB Benardrick McKinney (55 tackles, 3 sacks) and DL Preston Smith (32 tackles, 7 sacks, 2 INT, 1 TD). The secondary hasn't been great though, as MSU allows 301 passing YPG, including 343 passing YPG in road games. The Bulldogs also need to force more turnovers with just two takeaways in the past three contests combined.
As usual, the Crimson Tide’s offense can hurt their opponents in multiple ways while gaining 281.2 YPG passing (29th in nation), 206.1 YPG rushing (36th in FBS) and scoring 34.7 PPG (34th in nation). QB Blake Sims (2,243 pass yards, 17 TD, 3 INT) has thrown multiple touchdowns in 7-of-9 games, but has surpassed the 300-yard mark just once. Last week against LSU, he had his most attempts (45) but recorded a meager 209 passing yards (4.6 YPA) as he completed only 44% of his passes. HB T.J. Yeldon (686 rush yards, 5 TD) is questionable for this contest after spraining his ankle and the team has a solid backup in HB Derrick Henry (554 rush yards, 4 TD) who has averaged 5.0 YPC and already has two 100-yard games this season.
WR Amari Cooper (1,215 rec yards, 10 TD) has the second most receiving yards in the nation and is one of eight receivers with double-digit scores. He’s averaged 15.4 yards per catch and has had at least eight receptions in all but one of his games on the year. Alabama’s defense has been amazing as it has allowed the nation's second-fewest points (13.9 PPG) this year while holding the opposition to 13 or fewer points in three of the previous four games. The stars on this side of the ball include DL Xzavier Dickson (27 tackles, 7 sacks) and DB Landon Collins (60 tackles, 2 INTs) as they face a tough test this Saturday.
NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (8-1) at WISCONSIN BADGERS (7-2)
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Wisconsin -6.5, Total: 57
In a top-25 matchup on Saturday, No. 11 Nebraska travels north to take on No. 22 Wisconsin with first place in the Big Ten West division on the line.
The Cornhuskers have just one SU loss on the season when they were defeated by Michigan State 27-22 as 6.5-point underdogs. Overall, they are 6-3 ATS this year while failing to cover in each of their past two games in which they were big favorites of 20+ points against Rutgers and Purdue. In their most recent game against the Boilermakers, they won 35-14 while just barely failing to cover the 21.5-point spread as they had a paltry 297 yards of total offense. They actually were outgained with Purdue getting 340 total yards, and lost the turnover battle, but were able to still pull out the victory despite HB Ameer Abdullah (knee) missing most of the game. The Badgers have been tremendous over their past four games, defeating opponents by an average of 27.5 PPG and going 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS). They also played Purdue in their most recent game and came away with a very similar score (34-16) but were able to cover their spread, as it was 16.5 points. They amassed 489 yards of offense in the game while rushing for 264 yards on 6.3 YPC, but did turn the ball over twice.
These teams last squared off in the Big Ten Championship back in 2012 and Wisconsin destroyed Nebraska while playing at home by a score of 70-31 as a 3-point underdog. The Badgers ran for an absolutely absurd 539 yards (10.8 YPC) in the victory. Overall in their past three meetings, Wisconsin is 2-1 SU while being a perfect 3-0 ATS and has turned the ball over just twice in the three games. Trends show that Nebraska is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing at home over the past two seasons, while Wisconsin is 25-8 ATS (76%) in home games after having won four or five of its previous six games since 1992. The Cornhuskers will be happy to get back HB Ameer Abdullah (knee), who is probable for this one, while the Badgers have no significant injuries for this important Big Ten contest.
Nebraska ranks among the best in the nation at running the football (280.7 YPG, 10th in FBS) while getting 209.9 YPG from their passing attack, which has led to 40.4 PPG (10th in nation). QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (1,827 pass yards, 13 TD, 8 INT) has not surpassed 280 yards in any of his games thus far while he has completed only 53% of his passes for 7.9 YPA. His dual-threat ability has led to him rushing for double-digit attempts in 6-of-9 games while totaling 571 yards on 90 carries (6.3 YPC) with four scores. HB Ameer Abdullah (1,250 rush yards, 17 TD) is fifth in the nation in rushing yards and third in rushing touchdowns while going over 200 yards in four contests this season. He had scored a touchdown in each game before last week when he left after just six attempts for one yard.
WRs Jordan Westerkamp (600 rec yards, 4 TD) and Kenny Bell (577 rec yards, 2 TD) each have more than 30 receptions and have combined to average a solid 17.6 yards per catch. The Cornhuskers defense has allowed their opponents to score only 19.7 PPG (16th in FBS) while holding opposing rushers to a meager 123.8 YPG (20th in nation). The Blackshirts have been successful due to the strong play from LB Zaire Anderson (63 tackles, 6.5 TFL), DL Randy Gregory (37 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 INT) and DB Nate Gerry (50 tackles, 4 INT).
Like its opponent, Wisconsin loves to pound the football, running for 325.7 YPG (5th in FBS) while adding 152.7 YPG through the air, which has led to 36.8 PPG (19th in nation). QB Joel Stave (642 pass yards, 5 TD, 4 INT) has provided the team with a solid pocket passer to play in tandem with QB Tanner McEvoy (709 pass yards, 5 TD, 6 INT) who has rushed the ball for 442 yards on just 47 attempts (9.4 YPC) while scoring four times. The real meat of this offense comes from the legs of HB Melvin Gordon (1,501 rush yards, 19 TD) who is second in the nation in rushing yards and touchdowns, while averaging a hefty 7.6 YPC. He has had at least 120 yards on the ground in each game that he carried the football at least 13 times while going over 200 yards on three occasions. His backup, HB Corey Clement (720 rush yards, 7 TD), would be the top back on most teams, as he has gotten 6.3 YPC and had three games of 100+ yards of his own.
WR Alex Erickson (467 rec yards, 3 TD) leads the team with 35 receptions while averaging 13.3 yards per catch, as WR Sam Arneson (271 rec yards, 3 TD) has been a solid red-zone threat. On the defensive side of things, the Badgers have excelled while allowing the third-fewest points in the nation (14.3 PPG) and have given up only 94.3 rushing YPG (5th in FBS). While LBs Derek Landisch (49 tackles, 6 sacks), Joe Schobert (43 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Marcus Trotter (41 tackles, 2.5 sacks) have done a spectacular job against the run so far, they will have to play at a much higher level against the tough Nebraska rushing game.
AUBURN TIGERS (7-2) at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (7-2)
Kickoff: Saturday, 7:15 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Georgia -2, Total: 68.5
Another big SEC matchup ensues on Saturday night when No. 9 Auburn visits No. 16 Georgia.
Auburn was rolling along this season while grabbing big wins against Kansas State, LSU and Ole Miss, but has just not had enough in the tank to beat every school with losses against two top SEC programs in Mississippi State and Texas A&M. The 41-38 loss last week was devastating to the 23.5-point underdog Aggies who didn't have starting QB Kenny Hill. It was three turnovers that eventually did the Tigers in after they were trailing 35-17 at the half in a game where the programs combined for 1,035 total yards. Georgia has not had quite as difficult of a schedule as Auburn, but does have some solid wins against Clemson and Missouri while absorbing losses to South Carolina and Florida. The Bulldogs are 5-4 ATS on the year and were able to cover the 10 points that they were giving to Kentucky on the road last week as they came away with a 63-31 blowout victory. The offense was dominant from start to finish as they scored the first 21 points and had 559 yards of total offense, including 305 yards (7.9 YPC) out of the ground game.
This matchup was fairly even last season, as Auburn was a 3-point favorite at home and prevailed by a score of 43-38. They answered the Bulldogs 415 yards through the air with 323 yards on the ground (5.7 YPC) as they held off a late Georgia comeback with a 73-yard Hail Mary with 25 seconds on the clock to win the game. Some betting trends to keep an eye on in this one include that the Tigers are 11-2 ATS (85%) off of one or more straight Overs in the past two seasons while being a mere 8-19 ATS (30%) off a close lose of seven points or less to a conference rival since 1992. On the injury front, WR D’haquille Williams (leg) is doubtful for Auburn while HBs Keith Marshall (ankle) and Sony Michel (shoulder) are listed as questionable for the host Bulldogs. HB Todd Gurley (suspension) will return to Georgia after missing his past four games due to suspension.
Auburn ranks among the elite offenses in football with 38.7 PPG (14th in FBS) while getting most of its production on the ground (286.4 YPG, 8th in nation), but also has decent numbers from the passing attack (220.4 YPG). QB Nick Marshall (1,576 pass yards, 14 TD, 4 INT) has been efficient this year, connecting on 61% of his passes for 8.4 YPA, but has not thrown for more than 254 yards in any one game. He actually is more of a threat as a runner with four rushing performances of 100+ yards while totaling 698 yards on 113 attempts (6.2 YPC) and 11 touchdowns. HB Cameron Artis-Payne (1,190 rush yards, 9 TD) has been a workhorse for the team while averaging 23.2 rushing attempts per game, and has hit triple digits in all but two of his nine contests. He had his biggest game of the year last week in the loss to Texas A&M as he tallied 221 yards on 30 carries (7.4 YPC) and scored twice.
With top WR D’haquille Williams (609 rec yards, 5 TD) most likely missing Saturday's action, WRs Sammie Coates (416 yards, 2 TD, 20.8 avg) and Quan Bray (287 rec yards, 3 TD) will be leaned on to lead the pass-catching duties. The defense for Auburn has allowed 35.7 PPG over the past three games and has given up 24.1 PPG on the year. DB Johnathan Ford (65 tackles, 2 INT) and LB Cassanova McKinzy (64 tackles, 8.5 TFL) hope they can lead their team to a better performance this week against a tough Georgia offense.
The Bulldogs do a lot right on the offensive side of things and rank seventh in the nation in scoring (43.0 PPG) behind big performances from their running backs (256.3 rush YPG, 15th in FBS) and 196.9 YPG through the air. QB Hutson Mason (1,515 pass yards, 15 TD, 3 INT) has been great in completing 69% of his passes and not throwing an interception in four games since Oct. 4. He put together one of his best efforts to date against Kentucky last week with a career-high four touchdowns on 13-of-16 passing and 174 yards. There are high expectations in the return of HB Todd Gurley (773 rush yards, 8 TD), as he has averaged an amazing 8.2 YPC in his five games played while going over 130 yards on the ground four times.
HB Nick Chubb (895 rush yards, 7 TD) held the starting role while Gurley was out and will still have a big impact for his team after averaging 167.8 YPG in his four starts. WRs Chris Conley (443 rec yards, 5 TD) and Michael Bennett (302 rec yards, 4 TD) are the top options for Mason while Conley was able to grab two scores last week. Georgia has allowed its opponents to score 23.2 PPG as the LB duo of Amarlo Herrera (75 tackles, 3 sacks) and Ramik Wilson (72 tackles, 6 TFL) have been impressive.
FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (9-0) at MIAMI HURRICANES (6-3)
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line & Total: Florida State -1.5, Total: 61.5
No. 2 Florida State attempts to keep its second perfect season in a row going on Saturday night when it heads south to take on Miami.
The Seminoles have not lost since late 2012, as they are riding a 25-game SU win streak and have their sights set on the inaugural 2014 playoffs despite being a poor 2-7 ATS this season. Last week they once again failed to cover the spread when they hosted Virginia and won 34-20 as 21-point favorites. Each team had three turnovers in the game as FSU outgained the Cavaliers 376-257 while getting 261 of those yards from the passing game. Florida State has already had three games this season where it won by a single score and this is the lowest line they have had. Miami has done well recently while winning SU in the past three games and is 5-4 ATS on the year. The 'Canes have actually won each time when favored and lost each time they were underdogs. In their last contest, they took on North Carolina as 16.5-point favorites at home and dominated with a 47-20 victory behind 494 yards of offense with 295 of those yards coming from the rushing attack. In that win, the Hurricanes held UNC to a meager six rushing yards on 32 attempts (0.2 YPC).
The Seminoles have won SU in this matchup each of the past four years while being 2-2 ATS and winning by an average of 18.0 PPG. Last season, Florida State took an easy 41-14 victory at home while outgaining its opponent 517-275. Trends show that the Seminoles are 20-8 ATS (71%) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992 while Miami is 10-1 ATS (91%) after a win by 17 or more points in the past three seasons. FSU has benefited from staying healthy with no significant players set to miss this contest, while the Hurricanes will have some of their running depth possibly out, as HBs Joseph Yearby (hamstring) and Gus Edwards (ankle) are both listed as questionable.
Florida State is certainly one of the elite offensive teams in college football and ranks 10th in FBS with 319.9 YPG from the air attack while adding 129.9 YPG from the ground game as the school has scored 37.9 PPG (16th in nation). QB Jameis Winston (2,540 pass yards, 17 TD, 11 INT) has attempted at least 31 passes in all but one of his eight games and has eclipsed 300 yards through the air four different times. He has had a touchdown pass in each one of his starts, but has also struggled with turnovers with five picks over the past two games. HB Karlos Williams (520 rush yards, 9 TD) has averaged just 4.4 YPC while scoring multiple touchdowns in three different games this year. Change-of-pace HB Dalvin Cook (416 rush yards, 5 TD) has arguably been more productive rusher with 5.3 YPC, and has two games of 100+ rushing yards.
WR Rashad Greene (989 rec yards, 5 TD) has had double-digit receptions in three games this year while going over 100 yards six times and has averaged 13.9 yards per catch. Their defense has allowed 22.4 PPG this year and has given up 20 or more points in each of the past four games. LBs Reggie Northrup (72 tackles, 1 INT), Terrance Smith (65 tackles, 1 INT) and DL Mario Edwards Jr. (31 tackles, 3 sacks) will need to improve against a solid Miami team.
The Hurricanes have a balanced offense that has contributed 199.3 YPG on the ground (39th in FBS) and 237.6 YPG through the air while scoring 33.0 PPG. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya (2,087 pass yards, 20 TD, 9 INT) has been tremendous with at least one touchdown in each start this year while throwing a mere two picks in his past five games combined. He has connected on a solid 62% of his passes for 9.0 YPG while averaging just 207 YPG in his past five contests. HB Duke Johnson (1,213 rush yards, 9 TD) has scored a touchdown in each of the past eight games while averaging an impressive 168.6 YPG in his past five starts. He has had 20+ attempts three times on the year and may carry a heavy workload again as his two main backups are listed as questionable.
There is not one Miami wideout who is a true go-to receiver, as six different players have between 18 and 29 receptions. WR Phillip Dorsett (572 rec yards, 6 TD) leads the team in yards and is getting an amazing 30.1 yards per catch while WR Clive Walford (395 rec yards, 6 TD) has a team-high 29 receptions and is tied with Dorsett for the team lead in touchdown catches. The defense for Miami has done well in 2014, allowing 21.9 PPG behind the play of LB Denzel Perryman (72 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and DL Thurston Armbrister (42 tackles, 5 sacks).
