Where the action is: Saturday's biggest college football line moves
By JASON LOGAN
The college football schedule is in the home stretch with teams fighting their way into bowl consideration. Action has been fast and furious at the sportsbooks, where oddsmakers are constantly adjusting their numbers heading toward the weekend.
We talk with Scott Kaminsky about the biggest line moves on the Week 12 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff Saturday.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: -14.5, Move: -18.5
Money is on Central Michigan hosting the 2-8 RedHawks, who are coming off a 41-10 loss to Western Michigan. There hasn’t been much bet on this MAC matchup but the wise action has demanded a notable move.
“We moved quickly with little money. They hit 16.5 and 17.5,” Kaminsky said. “The people that played this game made the line -20 (Central Michigan) and bet accordingly, simple as that. One group out there likes the favorite.”
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5
These Mountain West Conference foes opened with the spread at a pick, but action has dictated the Falcons as 2.5-point home chalk – a spread that could continue to grow before the 2 p.m. ET kickoff.
“Early move for this one. Opened pick and went to -2 Monday. It’s stood there all week,” says Kaminsky. “It’s hard to answer (if this line will move more). These aren’t public teams, so you aren’t going to get that movement. There could be groups move this one late, if they like the favorite or the underdog.”
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: -13, Move: -17
It’s been all Wolfpack action for this ACC matchup, pushing the number past the key stop at 14 points and all the way to NC State -17 as of Friday afternoon. While it’s not the most high-profile game of Week 12, it could be one of the bigger decisions for books.
“It’s going to be a game where we’ll really need the dog,” says Kaminsky with a sigh. “And Wake is just horrible. That just looks like, in hindsight, a very bad opening number.”
Northwestern Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -16.5, Move: -18
This isn’t a massive line move but it is one of the more interesting games of Week 12. Action has been relatively split with a slight lean to the home side in South Bend. Kaminsky says that this game would see more movement later if it was a night game, rather than scheduled as a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“If it were a night game, you’d see a push on Notre Dame from the public,” he says. “But with the earlier start, it won’t be there. It’s not like the Florida State-Miami game (8 p.m. ET kickoff). The public is going to look to play on FSU and that’s a low line. Those night games, people are trying to get a winner or double up.”
Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: 59, Move: 55.5
The total for this SEC showdown is dwindling, dropping as much as 3.5 points. Missouri hasn’t been its usual high-scoring self and Texas A&M is ripe for a letdown after a unbelievable win over Auburn last weekend. The spread has also fallen, with the Aggies dropping from -5 to -3.5 against a Missouri team in the hunt for a spot in the SEC title game.
“(Texas A&M) has played some weaker opponents earlier in the year, but since they hit the meat of the schedule, they’ve struggled,” says Kaminsky. “(Missouri) has a pretty decent team, so this move makes sense.”
Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers – Open: +9, Move: +7
Money on this late Pac-12 contest is fading the Sun Devils, coming off a marquee win against Notre Dame last week, despite facing an Oregon State side suffering a four-game slide, most recently a loss to Washington State. That strange movement has Kaminsky looking twice at this line.
“That is surprising. I would say the line move is a little fishy,” he says, hinting that wiseguys could be betting Oregon State only to buy back ASU at the shorter spread. “It’s the last game of the night, too. The public will be all over the favorite. One way or another, this line is going to come back up.”
By JASON LOGAN
The college football schedule is in the home stretch with teams fighting their way into bowl consideration. Action has been fast and furious at the sportsbooks, where oddsmakers are constantly adjusting their numbers heading toward the weekend.
We talk with Scott Kaminsky about the biggest line moves on the Week 12 board and where those odds could end up come kickoff Saturday.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: -14.5, Move: -18.5
Money is on Central Michigan hosting the 2-8 RedHawks, who are coming off a 41-10 loss to Western Michigan. There hasn’t been much bet on this MAC matchup but the wise action has demanded a notable move.
“We moved quickly with little money. They hit 16.5 and 17.5,” Kaminsky said. “The people that played this game made the line -20 (Central Michigan) and bet accordingly, simple as that. One group out there likes the favorite.”
Nevada Wolf Pack at Air Force Falcons – Open: Pick, Move: -2.5
These Mountain West Conference foes opened with the spread at a pick, but action has dictated the Falcons as 2.5-point home chalk – a spread that could continue to grow before the 2 p.m. ET kickoff.
“Early move for this one. Opened pick and went to -2 Monday. It’s stood there all week,” says Kaminsky. “It’s hard to answer (if this line will move more). These aren’t public teams, so you aren’t going to get that movement. There could be groups move this one late, if they like the favorite or the underdog.”
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at North Carolina State Wolfpack – Open: -13, Move: -17
It’s been all Wolfpack action for this ACC matchup, pushing the number past the key stop at 14 points and all the way to NC State -17 as of Friday afternoon. While it’s not the most high-profile game of Week 12, it could be one of the bigger decisions for books.
“It’s going to be a game where we’ll really need the dog,” says Kaminsky with a sigh. “And Wake is just horrible. That just looks like, in hindsight, a very bad opening number.”
Northwestern Wildcats at Notre Dame Fighting Irish – Open: -16.5, Move: -18
This isn’t a massive line move but it is one of the more interesting games of Week 12. Action has been relatively split with a slight lean to the home side in South Bend. Kaminsky says that this game would see more movement later if it was a night game, rather than scheduled as a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
“If it were a night game, you’d see a push on Notre Dame from the public,” he says. “But with the earlier start, it won’t be there. It’s not like the Florida State-Miami game (8 p.m. ET kickoff). The public is going to look to play on FSU and that’s a low line. Those night games, people are trying to get a winner or double up.”
Missouri Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: 59, Move: 55.5
The total for this SEC showdown is dwindling, dropping as much as 3.5 points. Missouri hasn’t been its usual high-scoring self and Texas A&M is ripe for a letdown after a unbelievable win over Auburn last weekend. The spread has also fallen, with the Aggies dropping from -5 to -3.5 against a Missouri team in the hunt for a spot in the SEC title game.
“(Texas A&M) has played some weaker opponents earlier in the year, but since they hit the meat of the schedule, they’ve struggled,” says Kaminsky. “(Missouri) has a pretty decent team, so this move makes sense.”
Arizona State Sun Devils at Oregon State Beavers – Open: +9, Move: +7
Money on this late Pac-12 contest is fading the Sun Devils, coming off a marquee win against Notre Dame last week, despite facing an Oregon State side suffering a four-game slide, most recently a loss to Washington State. That strange movement has Kaminsky looking twice at this line.
“That is surprising. I would say the line move is a little fishy,” he says, hinting that wiseguys could be betting Oregon State only to buy back ASU at the shorter spread. “It’s the last game of the night, too. The public will be all over the favorite. One way or another, this line is going to come back up.”
