Saturday 10/29/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Tennessee Volunteers (5-2) at South Carolina Gamecocks (3-4)

Date: October 29, 2016 7:15 PM EDT

After losing in overtime at Texas A&M and in lopsided fashion to Alabama at home, Tennessee needed last week's break before heading into the stretch run that it hopes will end with an SEC East Division title and a berth in the conference championship game.

The 18th-ranked Volunteers hope (5-2, 2-2 SEC) start with a trip to South Carolina (3-4, 1-4). The two teams meet at 7:15 p.m. Saturday (ESPN2) in Williams-Brice Stadium in Columbia, S.C.

"I thought it was a very productive open week, work week," Tennessee coach Butch Jones said. "Now, what did we do with it? We had a lot of individuals gain physical reps. Some gained mental reps.

"Again, it's very, very important now that we get back to work and we have game-speed repetitions with some time off."

The Vols find themselves at a disadvantage in the division race for the first time since handing Florida its only loss back on Sept. 24. So far, that has been the only setback for the Gators, who play Georgia this weekend and have the postponed contest with LSU coming next month in Baton Rouge, La.

Tennessee can't afford another loss at this point.

"They understand the stakes," Jones said, referring to his players. "They understand the importance and the magnitude of each game. It's all about being a champion, an individual champion.

"What happens is to win championships, your team is comprised of individual champions. It's individuals that live their life like a champion. They're a champion every day by the way they handle their academics, by the way they handle their nutrition, their rest, their attitude, their practice, their mentality, by their style of play.

"We don't ever talk about winning championships. It's about being a champion each and every day, and we talk about that."

Recent history would seem to indicate that no matter what it may look like on paper, the game against South Carolina could work out to be a much bigger challenge for the Vols than might be expected.

The last four meetings have been decided by a total of 11 points, with the Gamecocks winning by 38-35 in Columbia in 2012 and the Vols by 23-21 (2013), 45-42 in overtime (2014) and 27-24 last year.

"As a coach, you sit and watch their body of work on video and I see a football team continuing to improve and get better and better," Jones said of the Gamecocks, who snapped a three-game losing streak with last week's 34-28 win over Massachusetts. "I'm very impressed with them defensively.

"They make you beat them. They make you beat them through execution. They're only giving up 21 points per game. I believe they're 11th in the country in red zone efficiency, so execution will be at a premium."

The Gamecocks played with a new starter at quarterback last week, yanking the redshirt off freshman Jake Bentley, who responded by completing 17 of 26 passes for 201 yards and two touchdowns. But this will be his first time against an SEC defense.

"Regardless of the situation, we have a lot of confidence in Jake and anybody we put on the field regardless of who they are and position concerned," South Carolina coach Will Muschamp said. "Tennessee has a good football team. We've got to give those guys credit."

Muschamp singled out one Tennessee defender for particular attention. Defensive end Derek Barnett has 11.5 tackles for loss with six of the team's 10 sacks.

"I think he's the guy that can change games," Muschamp said, "and we need to account for him."

So, too, can Bentley's Tennessee counterpart at quarterback. Vols senior Josh Dobbs has rushed for 293 yards, third on the team, and passed for 1,525. Junior running back Jalen Hurd has rushed for 435 yards despite missing one game to injury.

"Josh Dobbs is a three-year starter in our league," Muschamp said. "He's won a bunch of ball games and does a great job. Jalen Hurd is a guy that runs extremely hard. He's tough, physical and competitive. He's going to fight for every yard.

"You're going to have to get a bunch of hats around the ball and gang-tackle this guy. You've got to finish on this guy. He's a very competitive runner."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 9

The 2016 college football season hasn't gone as well as hoped with my best bets and after sitting on the sidelines last week and just observing, I'm hoping the week off can get me back into the winner's circle.

We are almost at November in the CFB season and that means some big time rivalries are on tap the rest of the way. This week is no different but it's these two rivalry games and their totals that stick out the most.

Best Bet #1: Penn State/Purdue Over 56.5

Penn State shocked the world when they beat the Ohio State Buckeyes outright last week as there is no doubt that will be the Nittany Lions signature win of the year. But after a high like that, Penn State goes out on the road to take on a sub-par Purdue team, in a game the Nittany Lions are expected to easily win.

Often times when that's the case, especially after a huge upset win like Penn State had, the entire football team deflates a bit, thinking they can just show up and come away with the W. Penn State should cruise to a victory, but without the same intensity level present on defense as last week, it's going to have to be the Nittany Lions offense that gets the job done.

Purdue has been a double digit underdog in nearly every Big 10 game they've played this year and have a 1-3 SU record to show for it. They've allowed 49, 31, and 50 points to the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Maryland respectively, so defense clearly isn't their strong suit. There's not going to be much Purdue can do to completely shut Penn State down, so the underdog Boilermakers are going to have to rely on their offense for any shot at the upset.

Purdue is 7-1 O/U in their last eight at home and have a 21-8-2 O/U run going after covering the spread last time out. This rivalry has typically been low-scoring with nine of the last 10 meetings either landing on or staying under the number (1-8-1 O/U), but the situational spot here is primed for a high scoring game to be had.

Penn State will get content and lazy on defense coming off the high of last week, and Purdue will be looking to take some chances against a solid team that just beat one of the best in the country. Five of Penn State's last six road games have been high scoring and this one should be as well.


Best Bet #2: Clemson/Florida State Over 60.5

This is the ACC game that college fans everywhere have been waiting for since the beginning of the season when it was expected these two would be battling for a right to play in the playoffs.

Florida State's season hasn't worked out like that with two defeats so far, but the Seminoles could still throw a huge wrench into the conference picture with an outright win.

You've got to score 30+ to have a chance at beating Clemson most days and we should see some points in this one.

Clemson and Florida State's offense's haven't lived up to expectation for the most part this season, but both are still capable of exploding at any point of a game. Florida is coming off consecutive weeks of scoring 20 or less, but they had put up 35+ in four of their first six contests and are on a 6-2 O/U run after a bye.

That extra week to prepare to attack Clemson's defense will show up as a huge positive for Florida State in this one as six of the past eight times they've hosted Clemson the 'over' has cashed.

Finally, Clemson realizes this is likely their last true test between them and an ACC Championship game. The stakes are then ramped up from the Tigers perspective and they'll always revert back to their strength – which is offensive football – when things get tough.

We saw Clemson put up 42 against Louisville when that game was expected to be a threat to the Tigers first place reign, and we should see Clemson be more than willing to trade blows with the Seminoles this week. Clemson's got to believe that when push comes to shove in an offensive shootout, their offense is going to convert more plays because they are better.

Teams have got to stick to their strengths in tough road games and that's why we will likely see 30+ from both sides here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Football Betting Odds: Week 9 Line Movements & Last-Minute News
by Alan Matthews

I think the University of Washington is a legitimate National Championship contender for the first time in a long while, but we should find out for sure if that's true Saturday when the No. 4 Huskies visit No. 17 Utah in a potential Pac-12 Championship Game preview. ESPN GameDay is in Salt Lake City for the showdown.

I think oddsmakers are a bit skeptical of the Pac-12. For good reason, I think. Usual powerhouses Oregon and Stanford have completely crashed. UCLA was the preseason favorite in the Pac-12 South but has played so badly that Coach Jim Mora could be in some trouble despite a massive buyout and recent contract extension.

So the conference's only hope of not missing the College Football Playoff for a second straight season rides on Chris Petersen's Huskies. They are +900 to win it all. Take a look at UW's schedule. Knowing what you know now about the Ducks and Cardinal, that schedule looks very unimpressive. There are no ranked teams left on it after this game, as Washington will be favored to win at Cal, home vs. USC (Trojans are surging) and Arizona State, and at Washington State in the Apple Cup.

Should Utah win, the Pac-12 is going to be out of luck in terms of the playoff. That would also hugely help one-loss teams elsewhere like Louisville and Ohio State. I'm looking forward to seeing Washington's Jake Browning, the lock Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year and +1000 to win the Heisman, go up against a Utah defense that leads the conference in interceptions and has held opposing quarterbacks to a 53.5 percent completion rate. Browning ranks No. 2 the FBS in pass efficiency (199.6), No. 3 in touchdowns (26) and in yards per attempt (9.94).

Washington could still lose this game and win the Pac-12 North as long as it doesn't lose again. Utah is tied atop the South with Colorado, and those two still have to play. The Huskies are 10-point favorites and while I think they win, I'd take the points -- a few sportsbooks have it still at 10.5, and I'd go there. Utah earned its first victory ever against Washington last season in Seattle as a 24-point outburst in the second quarter led to a 34-23 victory.

Here are some news, notes and any major line moves for some of Saturday's games around the country, in no particular order.

Northwestern at No. 6 Ohio State (-27, 53.5): Have to say this line surprises me as it has risen a whopping six points. Look, I get that Ohio State is one of those teams that the casual public loves to bet, much like a Notre Dame or Alabama. And I get that Urban Meyer teams almost never lose consecutive games. But 27 points!? Northwestern is not the same team that opened the season with home losses to Western Michigan (doesn't look so bad now) and Illinois State. The Wildcats have won three straight games and have the Big Ten's leading rusher in Justin Jackson and top receiver in Austin Carr. Jackson has rushed for 453 yards and three touchdowns in the last three games, while Carr has 24 catches for 328 yards and six touchdowns in that span. The defense has shut down the running game in the winning streak as opponents are averaging only 2.4 yards per carry. I'm not saying NU will win this game, but I'll be surprised if the Cats don't cover.

No. 7 Nebraska at No. 11 Wisconsin (-9, 43): The line has risen 1.5 points. I believe the winner of this game will play Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game. The Huskers are the only West Division team without a loss in conference and have a one-game lead over Northwestern and two over Wisconsin. Assuming NU doesn't beat Ohio State on Saturday, you can all but put the Huskers in the conference championship game with a win here. Wisconsin, meanwhile, would have major life with a victory as Nebraska probably loses next week at Ohio State. The Cornhuskers are expecting back wide receiver Jordan Westerkamp, who has missed the last two games with a back injury. He has 13 catches for 228 yards and four scores. Wisconsin, meanwhile, has lost linebacker and leading tackler Jack Cichy to a season-ending torn pectoral. He has 60 tackles and ranks second on the team in tackles for loss (seven). He recorded 15 tackles against Ohio State two weeks ago and was named the Big Ten's Defensive Player of the Week. Big loss for a UW defense ranked fourth in the country in scoring defense (14.3 points per game) and ninth in total defense (300.6 yards).

No. 15 Auburn at Ole Miss (+4, 63): This opened with the Tigers at -2.5 Auburn is expecting starting running back Kerryon Johnson to return from injury for this SEC West matchup. He injured his ankle two games ago on the opening series against Mississippi State and then missed last week's game vs. Arkansas. Didn't matter as Auburn rushed for 543 yards in the blowout of the Razorbacks, the most ever by one team in a regular-season SEC game. Johnson has 538 yards and six touchdowns on the year. If anyone has a harder schedule than Ole Miss this season, I'd like to know who. This is the sixth ranked team the Rebels have faced and they have just one win against them, over currently unranked Georgia. Ole Miss can't stop the run, ranking 113th nationally and having allowed LSU's Leonard Fournette to rush for a school-record 284 yards last week. That obviously could be a problem this week.

Miami at Notre Dame (+2, 58.5): The Irish opened as 1-point favorites for what used to be arguably the most heated rivalry in college football. It's the first on-campus meeting between the two in 26 years, and the game has the smallest spread on the board. The Hurricanes were once ranked 10th in the country but have fallen apart since a close loss to Florida State on Oct. 8 -- that has been a trend the past few years. UM gets so geared up for the Seminoles, loses a game it could have won and then has nothing left in the tank. To be fair, Miami has been absolutely gutted by injuries, especially on defense. But a very successful 10-win season (with a bowl victory) is still doable for Coach Mark Richt with a win here as the rest of the regular-season schedule is fairly easy. The Irish, of course, were an early-season Top 10 team but have face-planted. They basically have to win this to have a shot at a bowl game. Both starting quarterbacks in this game, Notre Dame's DeShone Kizer and Miami's Brad Kaaya, are expected to be first-round picks in next year's draft if they declare. Kizer could go No. 1 overall.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Clemson Tigers (7-0) at Florida State Seminoles (5-2)

Date: October 29, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson remembers the last time the Tigers played Florida State in Tallahassee very well.

He saw the first appreciable playing time in his career as the Tigers tried to beat the Seminoles on the latter's home field for the first time since 2006, but Florida State escaped 23-17 in overtime two years ago.

"I think we should've won," Watson said. "We had so many opportunities that we didn't capitalize on that night. We played very well, but just fell short. It was a great learning lesson for the whole team, and the young guys who got to play."

Watson, who passed for 266 yards and ran for a touchdown in that game, has gone 25-2 as Clemson's starting quarterback since and has rewritten the Tigers' record book. But he'd like nothing more than to finish his career with a winning record against the Seminoles.

The teams clash in a prime-time matchup Saturday ( 8 p.m. ET, ABC) at Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla.

The third-ranked Tigers (7-0, 4-0 ACC) have a bit of a cushion over the No. 12 Seminoles (5-2, 2-2) as far as the Atlantic Division race is concerned but that doesn't detract from the rivalry.

"We're 7-0, so we've reached our goals so far," Watson said. "And we're in position to control our own destiny."

The Seminoles don't. To get to the ACC championship game, they need to win this game and have the Tigers and Louisville also lose one more time to create a potential three-team deadlock at the top of the standings. That would throw the berth into the minutiae of tie-breaking procedures.

The Seminoles also are clinging to hopes that even with two losses they can finagle a way into the College Football Playoff. FSU coach Jimbo Fisher isn't campaigning for that but doesn't think such a development is out of the realm of possibility.

"If you can figure out college football right now, tell me," Fisher said. "You can't. We're in a crazy time right now. You don't know what's gonna happen. I could see it happening, I could see it not happening. But it wouldn't surprise me a lick."

The Tigers are going into the game following an open date that came at the most opportune time. Running back Wayne Gallman appears ready to go after suffering a concussion in their last game Oct. 15 against North Carolina State. He rushed for 103 yards against Florida State last year.

"We're healthy and rejuvenated and ready for this week," Watson said. "We were able to get some guys healthy and get guys to recommit to their goals and what they really want to do for this season and this team.

"Last year we played for 10 straight weeks and kind of slowed down at the end of the season. This is chance for us to build momentum for the next five weeks."

Wide receiver Hunter Renfrow returned for Clemson against N.C. State after missing four games with a broken bone in his hand and came up with several clutch catches. The former walk-on, who had touchdown receptions in four straight games dating back to last season before suffering his injury, may be Watson's most dependable target.

"It's good to have Hunter back," Watson said. "He's an all-around playmaker and another weapon for this offense."

For Florida State, running back Dalvin Cook's return to form has been a factor in the Seminoles' rebound from a 1-2 start to the season. He has rushed for 900 yards for the season, is coming off a 115-yard effort in last week's victory over Wake Forest, and rushed for 194 yards and scored the Seminoles' only touchdown in last year's loss to Clemson.

The most encouraging sign for the Florida State is their recent resurgence on defense. After giving up 177 points their first five games (a 35.4 average), they held then-No. 10 Miami to 19 and Wake Forest to just a pair of field goals the last two games. Defensive end DeMarcus Walker, who is second in the nation in sacks with 8.5, had two against the Demon Deacons.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet and odds: Week 9

We're on to Week 9 of the college football season and the full slate of games can be tough to navigate for bettors. So we bring you our Top 25 betting cheat sheet to handicap the best games of the day.

Central Florida Knights at No. 24 Houston Cougars (-9, 60)

* Freshman McKenzie Milton (960 passing yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) improved to 2-2 as the Knights' starter after throwing a career-high 317 yards and three touchdowns at Connecticut. Senior Dontravious Wilson has rushed for 371 yards and seven touchdowns, while Milton has plenty of options in the passing game. Tre'Quan Smith leads the team with 23 catches for 360 yards and three scores, tight end Jordan Akins (15 catches, 278 yards, two TDs) is a steady target and freshman Dredrick Snelson (eight catches, 107 yards, TD) is emerging as a threat.

* Greg Ward Jr. has thrown for 2,179 yards, 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, and he ranks fourth nationally with 370.9 yards per game, but the Houston offense has eight turnovers in its past three games. Running back Duke Catalon (279 rushing yards, TD) had 120 total yards versus the Mustangs after missing three games with a concussion. The Cougars are still ranked 13th nationally in total defense (312.1 yards) despite giving up 115 points and 1,247 yards in the past three weeks.

LINE HISTORY: Houston opened as 10-point home favorites and as of Thursday night that point spread was down to -9. The total opened at 56 and has gone up all week - all the way up to 60.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
* Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Over is 4-1 in Knights last 5 road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Cougars last 5 games following a straight up loss.

No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma State Cowboys (+3.5, 65)

* The Mountaineers are off to their first 6-0 start since 2006 and have three of the league’s four worst teams - Kansas, Texas and Iowa State - still on the schedule. Quarterback Skyler Howard threw four touchdowns passes against TCU and has completed 66.5 percent of his passes this season for 1,821 yards and 12 scores. Running back Rushel Shell (465 yards, five touchdowns) seeks his third straight 100-yard rushing game, while Justin Crawford (371, three) is expected to play despite an ankle injury.

* The Cowboys’ offense averages 41.1 points per game, good for 14th-best in the nation, on the strength of quarterback Mason Rudolph and a receiving corps that has 10 players averaging 10-plus yards per catch. Rudolph has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 2,256 yards and 14 touchdowns against only two interceptions. Freshman running back Justice Hill (565 rushing yards, four touchdowns) averages 119 yards in conference play and his next 100-yard game would be a program record fourth for first-year players.

LINE HISTORY: West Virginia opened as 3-point road favorite and, despite the spread going as high as 4.5 at one point on Tuesday, they currently sit at 3.5-point favorites. The total opened at 65 and remains at that number on Thursday evening. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Mountaineers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Under is 5-1 in Mountaineers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 9-1 in Cowboys last 10 conference games.

No. 2 Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (+24.5, 55)

* Jourdan Lewis and Jabrill Peppers were among 16 semifinalists for the Jim Thorpe Award, which is given annually to the best defensive back in college football. Freshman Chris Evans, who leads the Wolverines with 416 rushing yards, is likely to miss Saturday's contest after suffering a concussion in the first quarter of the win against Illinois. Fullback Khalid Hill scored his ninth touchdown of the season before leaving the game in the third quarter with an undisclosed injury but is expected to play Saturday - as is Tyree Kinnel, who also exited that contest early.

* Freshman Brian Lewerke completed only 11-of-24 passes for 156 yards with an interception in the loss to Maryland, and Dantonio revealed Tyler O'Connor - who has started five games this season - was "nicked up" but hopes to have him back in time to face Michigan. Linebacker Riley Bullough was ejected for targeting - his third personal foul of the first 11 minutes - last week but can play from the opening kickoff on Saturday since the infraction took place in the first half. LJ Scott ran for 128 yards against the Terrapins to register his second 100-yard rushing performance of the season and the third of his career.

LINE HISTORY: Michigan opened as 21-point faves and throughout the week that line continued to rise and on Thursday night was at 24.5. The total opened at 54 and went up a full point to 55. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wolverines are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Over is 9-0 in Wolverines last 9 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
* Under is 5-0 in Spartans last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.

No. 5 Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers (+33, 70)

* Jackson is 92 yards shy of becoming the 15th player - and first quarterback - in school history to run for 1,000 yards; he leads all quarterbacks with 138.7 rushing yards per game and has run and passed for at least one score in a FBS-best 10 straight contests. Senior tight end Cole Hikutini posted a career-high 118 yards receiving on six catches versus the Wolfpack and has managed to accumulate at least 84 yards in three of his last four games. Sophomore Blanton Creque tied a school record with four field goals and set another by scoring 18 points as a kicker - marks good enough to net him ACC Specialist and Co-Rookie of the Week honors.

* Taquan Mizzell was one of the few bright spots in an otherwise listless performance for the Cavaliers against North Carolina, posting his second career 100-yard rushing effort while accounting for 131 of the team's 253 total yards in the 35-14 defeat. Kurt Benkert, who threw for a school-record 421 yards passing against Central Michigan last month, was held to a season-low 126 and has only one passing TD over his last two games after throwing for 13 over his first five outings. Linebacker Micah Kiser (11) and safety Quin Blanding (10.7) lead the ACC in tackles per game - one of only two defensive duos from the same school to rank first and second for their respective conference.

LINE HISTORY: Louisville is one of the country's top public teams right now and their opening advantage of 27.5 was nowhere near high enough for the betting public. Books were forced to raise the line twice per day all week long - eventually settling in as 33-point favorites on Thursday night. The total opened at 69 and went up a full point to 70. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
* Cavaliers are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
* Over is 7-1 in Cardinals last 8 conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.

No. 4 Washington Huskies at No. 16 Utah Utes (+10, 53.5)

* Sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has joined the Heisman Trophy race due to his stellar play and the Huskies' rise and he has thrown 26 touchdown passes against just two interceptions. Sophomore running back Myles Gaskin has rushed for a team-best 727 yards while junior wideouts John Ross (34 receptions for 486 yards and nine touchdowns) and Dante Pettis (27 for 457 with eight scores) are enjoying solid seasons. Washington leads the nation with 12 fumble recoveries - junior inside linebacker Keishawn Bierria is the nation's individual leader with five -- behind a sturdy defense allowing just 14.6 points per game but will be without senior outside linebacker Joe Mathis (team-high five sacks) due to a foot injury.

* Junior quarterback Troy Williams has accounted for 12 touchdowns (seven passing, five rushing) while passing for 1,725 yards and has heavy motivation to play well against the Huskies. Williams began his college career at Washington and played in five games (one start) in 2014 but wasn't a recruit of current coach Chris Petersen and transferred after the campaign to a junior college before performing well enough to catch Utah's attention and then win the starting job. The defense will be missing injured junior free safety Marcus Williams (three interceptions, two fumble recoveries) but also has been receiving solid contributions from senior cornerback Brian Allen (team-best four interceptions), sophomore strong safety Chase Hansen (team-high 49 tackles) and senior defensive end Hunter Dimich (team-leading six sacks).

LINE HISTORY: Washington opened as 10.5-point road favorites and by Thursday night that point spread was down to 10. The total opened at 51 and shot all of the way up to 53.5 by the end of the week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Utes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 9-0 in Huskies last 9 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 6-1 in Utes last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

No. 6 Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns (+3.5, 72)

* Quarterback Seth Russell has completed 101-of-177 passes for 1,470 yards and 16 touchdowns this season and is the school's career leader in pass efficiency (169.2). His top target is junior wide receiver KD Cannon who returned from a groin injury against Kansas to catch three passes for 75 yards, including a 59-yard catch-and-run touchdown, while senior Shock Linwood -- who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,962 yards -- anchors a strong running attack that rolled up 246 rushing yards in the win over Kansas. Baylor leads the Big 12 in scoring defense (17.2) and total defense (320.3 yards per game) and is led by junior linebacker Taylor Young, who has a team best 46 tackles and three sacks, and safety Travon Blanchard, a Jim Thorpe Award semifinalist who has 29 tackles and three pass breakups.

* The Longhorns have excellent offensive balance and are led by freshman quarterback Shane Buechele, who has passed for 1,722 yards and 15 touchdowns, and junior running back D'Onta Foreman, who leads the Big 12 with 855 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. "When I watch him play, I'm just amazed that a young guy is that mature.," Grobe said of Buechele. "He'll be a great challenge for our defense." The Longhorns' defense, which gave up 45 or more points in four of its first five games, has allowed a total of 30 points in its last two games and is lead by sophomore linebackers Anthony Wheeler (team best 50 tackles) and Malik Jefferson (40 tackles, 3.5 tackles for loss).

LINE HISTORY: Baylor began the betting week as 2.5-point road favorites and by the time this cheat sheet was put together they were up a full point to 3.5-point faves. The total hit the board at 69 (hehe...Gronk) and jumped all of the way up to 72. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Longhorns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
* Under is 5-1 in Longhorns last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in Texas.

No. 12 Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs (+7.5, 43.5)

* Del Rio returned from a sprained left knee with an uneven performance against Missouri, going 18-for-38 for 236 yards as the Gators used two interception returns for touchdowns to build a 20-0 lead. Several running backs have combined to drive the Florida offense, as the Gators average 4.8 yards per carry and 181 yards per contest. Cornerbacks Jalen Tabor and Quincy Wilson have combined for seven interceptions on the season, while the Gators lead the SEC and are second in the nation in scoring defense (12 points per game).

* The Bulldogs have played better on defense in their past two games, allowing 31 points total after giving up 24 or more in each of their first five games. Georgia continues to seek consistency on offense, where under freshman quarterback Jacob Eason and a stable of productive running backs the Bulldogs nonetheless rank 12th in the SEC in scoring offense (25.1 points per game). Eason threw for 346 yards against Vanderbilt, with freshmen Riley Ridley and Issac Nauta emerging as go-to threats (the duo combining for 10 catches for 141 yards).

LINE HISTORY: Florida opened at 6.5-point road favorites and rose a full point to 7.5-point faves. The total opened at 43.5 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a bye week.
* Under is 7-1 in Gators last 8 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
* Under is 9-1 in Bulldogs last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.

Northwestern Wildcats at No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes (-27, 53.5)

* Clayton Thorson passed for 285 yards and three touchdowns in last week's victory over Indiana, giving him nine touchdowns and one interception (and two rushing scores) in the last three games. Justin Jackson has accounted for 82 percent of the team's rushing yardage this season and fell just short of his third straight 100-yard effort versus the Hoosiers. Austin Carr, meanwhile, has gone over 100 yards receiving in four of the last five outings and has scored nine touchdowns, all of them coming in the last six games.

* The Buckeyes have given up 47 points in the last two games after yielding a total of 54 points in the first five games, although the unit still boasts some impressive stats. Ohio State's defense has given up eight touchdowns all year (while scoring four of their own) and has allowed only two rushing scores all season. Curtis Samuel was a bright spot against Penn State with eight catches for 68 yards - both team highs - and a 74-yard touchdown run that helped Ohio State build a 21-7 lead before a disastrous fourth quarter.

LINE HISTORY: Ohio state opened the betting week as 21-point home favorites and that number was definitely not enough for the betting public. Plenty of early Ohio State action bumped that advantage all of the way up to -27. The total opened at 52.5 and went up a point to 53.5 by Thursday. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
* Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wildcats last 6 games in October.
* Under is 8-2 in Buckeyes last 10 conference games.

No. 13 Boise State Broncos at Wyoming Cowboys (+13.5, 63.5)

* Sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien has passed for 2,064 yards and 15 touchdowns, but his 442-yard outing against BYU was soured by throwing two pick-sixes. Senior receiver Thomas Sperbeck is enjoying a stellar season with 47 receptions for 810 yards and seven touchdowns and his 3,139 career receiving yards are tops in school history after he passed Titus Young (3,063 from 2007-10) during the BYU game. Sophomore nose tackle David Moa has a team-best 6 1/2 sacks and saved the game by blocking BYU's 44-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining.

* Hill, who is the school's all-time leading rusher with 3,437 yards, often carries the Cowboys on his back and the 289-yard performance was the second-highest showing in Wyoming history. Sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has accounted for 15 touchdowns (10 passing, five rushing) while senior receiver Tanner Gentry has been solid with 38 receptions for 612 yards and five scores. The Cowboys allow 30.3 points per game and feature a solid player in sophomore free safety Andrew Wingard (team-best 75 tackles), while sophomore strong safety Marcus Epps and sophomore cornerback Antonio Hull each have three interceptions.

LINE HISTORY: Boise State opened as 14.5-point road favorites and throughout the week that spread was reduced to 13.5. The total opened at 61.5 and jumped two full points to 63.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
* Over is 9-2 in Broncos last 11 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 conference games.

Kansas Jayhawks at No. 15 Oklahoma Sooners (-40, 67.5)

* The Jayhawks opened the season with a 55-6 rout of Rhode Island of the FCS, but have since dropped six straight, with the closest being a near-miss home loss (24-23) to TCU on Oct. 8. Kansas has used a pair of quarterbacks this season, but redshirt-junior Montell Cozart – who started last week’s 44-20 loss to visiting Oklahoma State after not playing the previous two contests – has been the most effective, throwing for 831 yards and seven touchdowns in five games. As aforementioned, the Jayhawks rank ninth in the Big 12, allowing 36.9 points per contest, but defensive end Dorance Armstrong Jr. ranks ninth nationally with seven sacks and Kansas ranks eighth nationally with 8.4 tackles for loss per outing.

* In just the opposite of the Big 12 defensive stats, the Sooners rank in the FBS top eight in scoring (43.9 points per game) and total offense (572.3 yards) and amazingly matched Texas Tech with 854 total yards. Baker Mayfield threw for 545 yards and set a school single-game record with seven passing TDs in the contest while tailback Joe Mixon, filling in for the injured Samaje Perine, became the first Oklahoma player to top 200 rushing yards (263) and 100 receiving yards (114) in a game and sizzling wide receiver Dede Westbrook hauled in nine passes for 202 yards and a pair of TDs. Outside linebacker Ogbonnia Okoronkwo has seven sacks and inside linebacker Jordan Evans ranks fourth in the conference with 7.7 tackles per game for the Sooners, who to their credit, have faced five top-34 total offenses to date in Texas Tech, Ohio State, TCU, Houston and Texas.

LINE HISTORY: Oklahoma opened as massive 40.5-point home favorites over the visiting Jayhawks and by Thursday that spread was down to -40. The total opened at 67 and went up by a half point to 67.5. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
* Sooners are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 6-1 in Jayhawks last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 10-2 in Sooners last 12 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

No. 6 Nebraska Cornhuskers at No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers (-9, 43)

* Armstrong, who can move into sole possession of third place in school history for career wins by a quarterback this weekend (tied with three others at 29), needs 11 yards to become the 11th player in conference history to reach 10,000 yards of total offense, and he's also 245 yards away from breaking the school's career total offense record. Jordan Westerkamp (back) will return from a two-game absence and tie Nebraska legend Johnny Rodgers (143) for third place in school annals with his next catch. Leading rusher Terrell Newby is 129 yards shy of becoming the 29th Cornhusker to run for 2,000 career yards and has amassed 235 of his 324 rushing yards over the last three contests in the fourth quarter.

* The Badgers will be without linebacker Jack Cichy (team-high 60 tackles) after he suffered a torn pectoral muscle against Iowa, making him the latest injury casualty to a unit that already lost inside linebacker Chris Orr for the season. They will also be without nose tackle Olive Sagapolu and possibly even cornerbacks Derrick Tindal and Natrell Jamerson. Corey Clement is the Big Ten's second-leading rusher (102.8 yards) and has compiled 298 yards on 60 carries over the last two games. Senior quarterback Bart Houston, who lost his job to freshman Alex Hornibrook in mid-September, saw his first action in four games versus the Hawkeyes, throwing for Wisconsin's only passing touchdown on the team's first possession.

LINE HISTORY: Wisconsin opened the betting week as 7.5-point home favorites and by Thursday that number was up to -9. The total opened at 43 and did not move all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Cornhuskers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Badgers are 6-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Under is 6-0 in Cornhuskers last 6 conference games.
* Under is 13-3 in Badgers last 16 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.

No. 17 Auburn Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+4, 63)

* Sophomore running back Kerryon Johnson (ankle) could return to the lineup to add another major threat to a rushing attack that ranks third in the nation at 302.9 yards per contest. Sophomore Kamryn Pettway has recorded 361 of his 697 rushing yards and five of his six touchdowns on the ground the past two games for the Tigers. Sophomore quarterback Sean White has been very efficient, completing 68.5 percent of his passes with seven TD strikes and two interceptions while senior Tony Stevens has a team-high 24 receptions.

* Kelly threw for 381 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 27-19 victory over Auburn last year and is completing 62.2 percent of his passes this season with 15 TDs and seven interceptions. Kelly has plenty of weapons but his main target is senior Evan Engram, who leads all tight ends in the nation in receiving yards with 605 on 40 receptions with five scores. Senior Akeem Judd leads the ground attack with 382 yards and four TDs, although he has reached 100 in a game just once this season and Kelly is second on the team in rushing (269).

LINE HISTORY: Auburn opened the week as 2.5-point road favorites and by Thursday that number was up to 4 points. The total hit the betting board at 63 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
* Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Under is 7-1 in Tigers last 8 conference games.
* Under is 8-0 in Rebels last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Mississippi.

No. 18 Tennessee Volunteers at South Carolina Gamecocks (+13.5, 50.5)

* The Volunteers' hopes for a spot in the College Football Playoff are now a big longshot, though if they manage to win out and Florida loses another game they will get another shot at Alabama in the SEC championship game. Tennessee is fighting through a slew of injuries but still has quarterback Joshua Dobbs, who is looking to bounce back after throwing a pair of interceptions in the loss at Texas A&M and being held to 92 yards and no touchdowns through the air by Alabama. Dobbs passed for 255 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win over South Carolina last season that was part of a six-game winning streak to end the season following a loss to Alabama.

* The Gamecocks spent the first half of the season trying to settle on one quarterback and may have finally found their man in Jake Bentley. The freshman made his first appearance against Massachusetts last week and completed 17-of-26 for 201 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in the win as South Carolina managed more than 20 points for the first time this season. Perry Orth and Brandon McIlwain each started three games before the Gamecocks abandoned their plans to redshirt Bentley.

LINE HISTORY: Tennessee opened as 13-point road favorites and edged up a half point to 13.5. The total opened at 50.5 and has yet to move. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Volunteers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Gamecocks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
* Over is 6-0 in Volunteers last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
* Under is 6-1 in Gamecocks last 7 conference games.
* Volunteers are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in South Carolina.

New Mexico State Aggies at No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies (-43.5, 71)

* The Aggies held an opponent under 31 points for the first time this season against Georgia Southern last week but still could not come out with a win in a 22-19 setback. Senior quarterback Tyler Rogers threw five interceptions in a 52-6 loss at Troy on Sept. 24 but is steadily improving and passed for a total of four touchdowns and one interception over the last two contests. Running back Larry Rose rushed for 14 touchdowns last season but missed the first three games recovering from a sports hernia and found the end zone once in four games since his return.

* The Aggies defense got a major boost against Alabama with increased playing time for defensive end Myles Garrett, who recorded 3.5 tackles for loss despite still not being 100 percent due to a leg injury suffered last month. The offense was not able to hold up its end of the bargain as quarterback Trevor Knight completed a season-low 45.2 percent of his passes and rushed for a season-low 24 yards. Garrett and Knight will be tasked with keeping their teammates focused on Saturday's matchup instead of looking ahead to a closing stretch that includes dates with Ole Miss, Mississippi State and LSU.

LINE HISTORY: Texas A&M opened as 41.4-point home favorites and the public decided that massive number wasn't enough and bet the -41.5 up to -43.5. The total opened at 69.5 and quickly rose to 71. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* NMS Aggies are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs. SEC.
* TAM Aggies are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up loss.
* Over is 21-5 in New Mexico State's last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 8-1-1 in Texas A&M's last 10 games on grass.

No. 3 Clemson Tigers at No. 14 Florida State Seminoles (+4.5, 60)

* Watson gives the Tigers a flashy star on offense — and Clemson ranks 18th nationally with 304.9 passing yards per game — but a dominant defense has carried the Tigers at times. Clemson ranks in the top 10 in the nation in total defense, scoring defense and passing defense, and the Tigers average a whopping nine tackles for loss per game. If there is a weakness its the run defense, which will have its hands full trying to slow down Cook.

* Cook ranks ninth in the nation in rushing yards (900), but the Seminoles have displayed decent balance with Deondre Francois under center. The redshirt freshman quarterback threw two touchdowns in a road win at Miami and passed for 319 yards and a score in last week’s win over Wake Forest. The Seminoles’ downfall against quality opponents has been their defense, allowing 530 total yards or more in losses to Louisville and North Carolina.

LINE HISTORY: Clemson opened this betting week as 3-point road favorites and the public decided that wasn't high enough - betting the Tigers up to 4.5-point faves. The total hit the betting board at 60 and hasn't moved all week. View complete line history here.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Seminoles are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
* Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 games in October.
* Under is 8-2 in Seminoles last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best Bets - Week 9

The 2016 college football season hasn't gone as well as hoped with my best bets and after sitting on the sidelines last week and just observing, I'm hoping the week off can get me back into the winner's circle.

We are almost at November in the CFB season and that means some big time rivalries are on tap the rest of the way. This week is no different but it's these two rivalry games and their totals that stick out the most.

Best Bet #1: Penn State/Purdue Over 56.5

Penn State shocked the world when they beat the Ohio State Buckeyes outright last week as there is no doubt that will be the Nittany Lions signature win of the year. But after a high like that, Penn State goes out on the road to take on a sub-par Purdue team, in a game the Nittany Lions are expected to easily win.

Often times when that's the case, especially after a huge upset win like Penn State had, the entire football team deflates a bit, thinking they can just show up and come away with the W. Penn State should cruise to a victory, but without the same intensity level present on defense as last week, it's going to have to be the Nittany Lions offense that gets the job done.

Purdue has been a double digit underdog in nearly every Big 10 game they've played this year and have a 1-3 SU record to show for it. They've allowed 49, 31, and 50 points to the likes of Iowa, Illinois, and Maryland respectively, so defense clearly isn't their strong suit. There's not going to be much Purdue can do to completely shut Penn State down, so the underdog Boilermakers are going to have to rely on their offense for any shot at the upset.

Purdue is 7-1 O/U in their last eight at home and have a 21-8-2 O/U run going after covering the spread last time out. This rivalry has typically been low-scoring with nine of the last 10 meetings either landing on or staying under the number (1-8-1 O/U), but the situational spot here is primed for a high scoring game to be had.

Penn State will get content and lazy on defense coming off the high of last week, and Purdue will be looking to take some chances against a solid team that just beat one of the best in the country. Five of Penn State's last six road games have been high scoring and this one should be as well.


Best Bet #2: Clemson/Florida State Over 60.5

This is the ACC game that college fans everywhere have been waiting for since the beginning of the season when it was expected these two would be battling for a right to play in the playoffs.

Florida State's season hasn't worked out like that with two defeats so far, but the Seminoles could still throw a huge wrench into the conference picture with an outright win.

You've got to score 30+ to have a chance at beating Clemson most days and we should see some points in this one.

Clemson and Florida State's offense's haven't lived up to expectation for the most part this season, but both are still capable of exploding at any point of a game. Florida is coming off consecutive weeks of scoring 20 or less, but they had put up 35+ in four of their first six contests and are on a 6-2 O/U run after a bye.

That extra week to prepare to attack Clemson's defense will show up as a huge positive for Florida State in this one as six of the past eight times they've hosted Clemson the 'over' has cashed.

Finally, Clemson realizes this is likely their last true test between them and an ACC Championship game. The stakes are then ramped up from the Tigers perspective and they'll always revert back to their strength – which is offensive football – when things get tough.

We saw Clemson put up 42 against Louisville when that game was expected to be a threat to the Tigers first place reign, and we should see Clemson be more than willing to trade blows with the Seminoles this week. Clemson's got to believe that when push comes to shove in an offensive shootout, their offense is going to convert more plays because they are better.

Teams have got to stick to their strengths in tough road games and that's why we will likely see 30+ from both sides here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Saturday’s best 13 games

TCU beat Texas Tech 82-27/55-52 last two years, gaining a ridiculous 750-785 TY. Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games; Red Raiders lost two of last three visits here, with average total in last two played here, 109.0. Yes, 109. Frogs are 10-4 in last 14 games as a home favorite, but 0-2 this year. Tech allowed 52.7 pts/game the last three games, 1,504 TY in last two; they’ve scored 50+ points in four games this year, are 2-2 in those games. Red Raiders are 5-3 in last eight games as a home dog. Three of last four TCU games stayed under; over is 4-2 in Tech games. Home favorites are 8-4 vs spread in Big X games.

Florida State is a home underdog for first time in five years; Seminoles won last two games vs Miami/Wake Forest, holding them to 528 TY, 25 points. Home side won eight of last nine Clemson-Florida State games; Tigers lost eight of last nine visits to Tallahassee, losing last four by 6-12-3-14 points, though Clemson did cover four of last five visits here (all as underdog). Seminoles won three of last four series games, but they’re thin this year and looked tired before their bye.* Clemson is 4-7 in last 11 games as a road favorite, 2-1 this year. Under is 5-2 in Clemson games, 3-0 in last three Seminole games.

Kansas State won its last eight games with Iowa State (underdogs 5-2-1 vs spread). Wildcats won 32-28/27-21 in last two visits here. K-State is 0-3 on road this year, scoring 15.3 pts/game; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road favorite. Iowa State lost last three games despite leading all three games at the half, allowing 533 yds, 36.7 pts/game— they had last week off. Cyclones are 14-16-1 in last 31 games as a home dog, 1-0 this year. Under is 4-1 in last five K-State games, 1-4 in Cyclones’ last five games. Big X home underdogs are 3-3 vs spread.

West Virginia is 6-0, winning its only road game 48-17 at Texas Tech; WVU is 6-6-1 as road favorite under Holgorsen, 1-0 this year. Oklahoma State won its last three games, scoring 43.7 pts/game; Cowboys are 3-7 in last ten games as a home underdog- they lost 30-27 here to Central Michigan, 35-24 at Baylor. Home side lost last two West Virginia-OSU games; WVU ran ball for 210-255 yards in last two meetings- they split last two visits to Stillwater. Mountaineers’ last three games stayed under the total; four of last five OSU games went over the total.

Notre Dame lost four of last five games with only win 50-33 over Syracuse on a neutral field; Irish are 3-2 as home underdog under Kelly- they lost last three home games SU, to Mich State, Duke and Stanford, three mediocre teams. Irish crushed Miami 41-3 in last meeting, but that was in 2012. Hurricanes scored 16 pts/game in losing last three games after a 4-0 start; ‘canes allowed 13 sacks in their losses, are 2-1 on road, winning at App State, Ga Tech. Miami is 8-4 in last 12 games as a road favorite, 2-0 this year. ACC non-conference road favorites are 5-2 vs spread.

Texas lost four of last five games, amid rumors that coach Strong is on hot seat; Longhorns are 4-3-1 as home underdogs under Strong, 2-0 this year- they’re 3-0 SU at home, scoring 39.3 pts/game. Baylor won four of last six games with Texas, winning two of last three visits here, covering last four trips to Austin. Bears (-14) covered only game in last 20 years as road favorite vs Texas, beating Longhorns 28-7 two years ago; they’re 4-11-2 in last 17 games as road favorite, 0-2 this season. Underdogs are 5-4 vs spread in last nine series games. Four of five Baylor games stayed under.

Nebraska is getting nine points despite being 7-0, with wins at Northwestern (24-13), Indiana (27-22); Cornhuskers are 5-1-1 in last seven games as a road underdog. Wisconsin won four of last five games with Nebraska, pounding Huskers 59-24/48-17 in last two games played here. Nebraska covered last five series games. Badgers had tough games with Ohio State/Iowa last two weeks; they’re 7-9 in last 16 games as a home favorite, 1-1 this year. Last five Cornhusker games, four of last five Wisconsin games stayed under total. Big 14 home favorites are 5-11 vs spread.

Florida is 5-1 but has played very soft schedule, with loss at Tennessee (led 21-3 at half) only tough team they’ve played- their LSU game was pushed back a month. Gators are 13-5 in last 18 games with Georgia, winning last two, 38-20/27-3; Florida ran ball for 258-418 yards last two years. Georgia lost three of last four games, losing last game at home to Vandy- they allowed TD on opening kickoff; Dawgs are 2-7-1 in last ten games as an underdog, 1-1 this year. Favorites are 5-2-1 vs spread in series; Florida covered four of last five as a series favorite.

Ole Miss got thrashed by LSU’s ground game LW, is expected to announce a self-imposed bowl ban for this year, making them unplayable for rest of season. Rebels scored 45. pts/game in its three I-A home games, with only loss to Alabama. Auburn won/covered its last four games, with 38-14 win (-3.5) at Miss State, in their only road game of season so far; Tigers are 4-2 as road favorites under Malzahn- they won nine of last 12 games vs Ole Miss- favorites covered five of last six series games. Tigers won seven of last nine visits to Oxford. Auburn covered three of last four as road favorite in series. Ole Miss is 6-2 as a home dog under Freeze.

Houston lost two of last three games, losing 38-16 as a 21-point favorite at SMU LW; they’re a disappointed team, 6-9-1 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Central Florida is 4-3 after being winless LY; Knights scored 41.3 pts/game in winning last three road games- they’re 7-5 in last 12 games as a road underdog, 1-1 this year. UCF lost 59-10 to Houston LY, giving up 366 rushing yards in just second Cougar win in last seven series games. UCF won 17-12/40-33 in last two visits here. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last four series games. Four of last five Houston games went over.

Wyoming is much-improved at 5-2, scoring 38.3 pts/game in three-game win streak; are young Cowboys ready for Boise State team that won its last ten games with Wyoming, covering three of last four? Broncos are 4-1 vs spread in winning last five visits to Laramie, with four of five wins by 22+ points. Boise is used to taking opponents’ best shot; they’re 31-14 in last 45 games as a road favorite, 9-5 under Harsin, 2-1 this year- they’re 3-0 on road this year, winning by 35-14-28 points, by Wyoming is by far best team they’ve visited this year. Mountain West home underdogs are 4-3 vs spread.

Washington is 7-0 but won 35-28 (-17) at Arizona in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-2 as road favorites under Petersen- they scored 51.7 pts/game in last three games. Utah scored 35.7 pts/game in winning its last three games, but gave up 464 PY in 52-45 win at UCLA LW. Utes beat BYU/USC at home this year, are 7-1, with only loss 28-23 at Cal; since 2012, they’re 4-2 as a home underdog. Underdogs won last three Washington-Utah games SU; Utes (+2) won 34-23 in Seattle LY, even though Huskies outgained them 381-346. Utah ran ball for 360 yards in Rose Bowl last week.

Oregon lost its last five games, allowed 689 rushing yards in last two games and is struggling terribly while playing a freshman QB; their defense was on field for 116 plays in Berkeley last Friday. Ducks were outgained by 692 yards in their last three games, but they won nine in a row vs Arizona State; favorites are 4-2-1 vs spread in last seven series games. Sun Devils lost last three visits to Eugene, by 14-23-12 points. ASU lost three of last four games, allowing 77 points in last two games, losses at Colorado (40-16), at home to Wazzu (37-32). Pac-12 home favorites are 9-7 against the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'CFB: Wildcats visit Mizzou'

Kentucky at Missouri October 29, 12:00 EST

Two schools headed in opposite direction square off when Kentucky Wildcats (4-3 SU/ATS) visits Missouri Tigers (2-5 SU/ATS). Wildcats playing some good football have won four of five with the only loss coming against top ranked 'Bama'. Mizzou shredded both in the air (284 yds, 4 TD) and on the ground (300 yds, 2 TD) losing to CUSA Middle Tennessee this past week have dropped three straight, four of five with the only win coming against FCS Delaware State. Mizzou giving up a slew of yardage and points recently expect Wildcats to make it two in a row vs Mizzou and hand Tigers a fourth SEC loss this season. Lay the small number (-4.5) as Mizzou enters 6-13 in its last 19 games, 3-9 ATS in its last 12 vs the conference.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big 12 Clash'

West Virginia at Oklahoma State October 29, 12:00 EST

Oklahoma State (5-2 SU/ATS) off a 44-20 beatdown of Kansas this past weekend as -23.0 point road favorites have won three straight with a 2-1 record against the betting line. Pokes putting up 41.1 points/game on 336 passing, 143.7 rushing yards will have their hands full against visiting West Virginia (6-0, 3-3 ATS). The Mountaineers just shut down TCU’s fast-paced offense en route to a commanding 34-10 win last week and its defense is limiting opponents to just 17.8 point per game this season. Winning on the road is always a challenge, winning on the road against a conference rival an even bigger challenge. However, the road team in this series has won and covered the past two meetings and we see Mountaineers exacting revenge for last years loss in Morgantown. Consider laying the small number (-4.0). as Mountaineers are a profitable 6-2 ATS as road chalk of -4.5 or less while Pokes enter a money-burning 0-8 ATS as home underdogs in the same range, 2-10 ATS overall last twelve taking points in front of the home audience.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, Oct. 29

MIAMI-OHIO at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU big turnaround with six straight covers TY and 7-1 vs. line. Eagles 2-0 as chalk TY after 0-4 mark in role 2012-15. Miami 11-5 vs. line away for Chuck Martin since 2014.

Slight to EMU, based on recent trends.


UCONN at EAST CAROLINA...UConn 1-0-2 vs. line away TY. Huskies have covered last two in series. ECU 3-7 as chalk since LY.

UConn, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at TEXAS A&M... NMSU only 1-3 vs. line on road TY, 5-10 as visitor since 2014. Ags 2-0-1 as home chalk TY after 6-12 mark previous three seasons, but only 7-12 since 2013 laying DD.

Slight to Texas A&M, based on team trends.


MTSU at FIU...Golden Panthers have covered last two in series but Stockstill 15-7-1 as road chalk since 2006.

Slight to MTSU, based on team trends.


WKU at FAU...FAU has covered last two in series but on 1-7 spread skid since late 2015. Tops 4-2 vs. line last six on C-USA road.

WKU, based on recent FAU woes.


CINCINNATI at TEMPLE...Tuberville 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY and 3-8 last 11 on board. Owls have covered six straight TY.

Temple, based on team trends.


ARMY at WAKE FOREST...Wake doing most of its spread damage as dog TY, as Clawson only 1-2 as chalk TY and 3-6 in rare role since 2013. Army no covers last two on road after 7-0-2 spread run away from Michie.

Army, based on team trends.


MINNESOTA at ILLINOIS...Close wins as dog the past two years for Illini. But Gophers 5-0-1 vs. line last six away from home. Lovie 1-3 vs. spread as host TY and Illini just 3-9 last 12 as dog (1-2 TY).

Slight to Minnesota, based on team trends.


TEXAS TECH at TCU...Tech has covered 3 of 4 since TCU joined Big 12, but the loss was an 82-27 bomb job in 2014 at Fort Worth. Tech actually 8-3 last 11 on board and is 5-2 last 7 as visiting dog. Frogs only 1-6 vs. line TY and 0-4 at Amon Carter Stadium.

Texas Tech, based on team and series trends.


KANSAS at OKLAHOMA...OU has destroyed KU last two and 3 of last 4 meetings! Total score last two 106-14! Though OU just 5-4 as home chalk since LY, and 2-3 last five laying 30 or more. Jayhawks 0-3 vs. line on road TY and 3-10-1 as visiting dog since 2014.

Oklahoma, based on team and recent series trends.


PENN STATE at PURDUE...James Franklin 2-11 vs. spread away form home since 2014. PSU 0-5 as visiting chalk since 2013. But Purdue only 4-15 as Ross-Ade dog since 2012.

Slight to Purdue, based on PSU road negatives.


MARYLAND at INDIANA... Road dogs have won thumping decisions past two years. Hoosiers just 1-3 vs. line as host TY, 0-2 as home chalk, 8-11 in role since 2012.

Slight to Maryland, based on series road trend.


LOUISVILLE at VIRGINIA...Bronco Mendenhall teams at BYU & UVa 16-10 last 26 as dog (4-3 TY). Cards 2-0 as visiting chalk TY, but Cavs 8-3 last 11 as Charlottesville dog.

Slight to Virginia, based on team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA... GSU has covered 5 in a row TY, now 17-4 as visiting dog since 2013! Jags 1-5-1 as Mobile chalk since 2014 (0-1 TY).

Georgia State, based on team trends.


KENT STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...Flashes 6-9 as road dog since 2014. CMU 8-5 as Mt. Pleasant chalk since 2013 (2-1 TY) and 14-8 overall last 22 on board, though failing to cover 4 of last 5.

Central Michigan, based on team trends.


CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE...Clemson has covered 6 of last 7 meetings though only 3-4 SU in those games. Tigers only 4-7 last 11 as visiting chalk. Jimbo 2-4 last 6 as dog overall.

Slight to Clemson, based on series trends.


KANSAS STATE at IOWA STATE...ISU has covered last two meetings though Cyclones haven’t beaten KSU since 2007, when Snyder was resting for a couple of years. Snyder 3-1 last four as road chalk. ISU had covered four straight this season before loss to Texas.

Slight to Kansas State, based on series trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at NC STATE...BC 6-1-1 last eight as visiting dog (0-1 TY). But Addazio just 7-11-1 last 19 on board. Pack 10-3 as chalk since LY.

N.C. State, based on recent trends.


WEST VIRGINIA at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU only 3-6 last nine vs. line as Big 12 host. Teams have split last two years with road dog winning each. Holgorsen was 0-3 as road dog LY, yet to have chance in role TY. Mounties 2-6 vs. spread last 8 away from Morgantown.

Slight to Oklahoma State, based on team trends.


MIAMI-FLA. at NOTRE DAME...Richt 0-3 SU and vs. line last three TY after loss at VPI, while Irish just 2-5 SU and vs. spread, 3-8 last 11 on board. Irish 1-4 vs. line last five at South Bend.

Slight to Miami, based on recent ND woes.


BAYLOR at TEXAS... Revenge for Baylor after being depleted at QB for season-ending loss vs. Horns LY. Though Bears 0-2 vs. line on road TY and 3-9 last 12 reg.-season games on board. Charlie Strong 3-0 vs. line at home TY, 6-2-2 at Austin since LY.

Slight to Texas, based on team trends.


TULSA at MEMPHIS...Tulsa 8-2 vs. line away from home since LY. Memphis only 4-9 vs. line last 13 on board.

Tulsa, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE...Cougs on 13-4 spread uptick since early LY. Cougs also 8-2 vs. spread last 10 away from Pullman. Beavs have covered last 3 TY but were on 6-21-1 spread skid prior.

WSU, based on recent trends.


STANFORD at ARIZONA...Tree has covered 7 of last 9 away from Farm, including last two this season. No SU losses to UA since 2009 (4-0 SU since). Cats on 1-8 spread skid since late 2015, 4-13 last 17 on board.

Stanford, based on team trends.


NORTHWESTERN at OHIO STATE...Bucks haven’t lost to Cats since 2004, and that was first loss since ‘71. Urban Meyer 3-1 vs. line at Big Horseshoe TY after 1-6 home chalk mark in 2015. Bucks no covers last 3 this season and Cats have win outright as dog last two on road. Fitz 9-3 last 12 as road dog.

Slight to Northwestern, based on recent trends.


NEBRASKA at WISCONSIN... Huskers have won and covered last four away from Lincoln and Riley 7-3-1 vs. number last 11 on board. Badgers have won and covered four of last five meetings and thumped Huskers in three of those. Riley 3-1-1 as dog since LY but Chryst on 8-1 spread uptick.

Slight to Wisconsin, based on series trends.


MARSHALL at SOUTHERN MISS...Herd has headed south, only 2-5 SU and vs. line TY. Marshall has owned this series lately, however, winning and covering last five. USM only 2-5 vs. line for Jay Hopson.

Slight to Marshall, based on series trends.


DUKE at GEORGIA TECH...Duke has won and covered the past two meetings after Paul Johnson had beaten Cutcliffe 6 in a row SU prior. GT covering some numbers again (last two) after extended downtick (2-12 previous 14). Cutcliffe 14-5 last 19 as dog.

Duke, based on recent team and series trends.


GEORGIA vs. FLORIDA (at Jacksonville)...Gators have won and covered last two and 2-0-1 vs. line in series. UGa just 6-10 vs. line last 16 reg.-season games, though McElwain just 4-8 last 12 on board.

Slight to Florida, based on recent series trends.


AUBURN at OLE MISS... Malzahn 2-1 SU and vs. line against Freeze, with Ole Miss win LY. Auburn recuperating vs. number TY, now 6-1 last seven in 2016. Tigers have covered three straight away from Jordan-Hare. Freeze only 3-4 vs. line TY after several big spread years in past.

Auburn, based on recent trends.


TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA...Butch Jones had covered 6 of 7 away from Knoxville into this season but has covered just one of first three away TY. Last four in series decided by three or fewer, and dog covering last four. Muschamp just 2-3 as dog TY but was 8-3-1 as dog in his last four years with Florida.

South Carolina, based on series trends.


UCF at HOUSTON...UCF 5-2 vs. line for Scott Frost TY after the debacle of last season. Knights had won two previous games vs. Cougs before LY’s 59-10 loss. UH no covers last 4 TY and 0-2-1 vs. line at TDECU Stadium, just 3-6-1 at home since LY vs. line, 5-11-1 as home chalk since 2014.

UCF, based on recent trends.


RICE at LA TECH...LT has destroyed Rice by combined 118-48 past two seasons. Owls 3-7-1 as visiting dog since 2014. Skip Holtz 3-12 vs. spread since 2014.

La Tech, based on recent team and series trends.


BOISE STATE at WYOMING...Boise has rolled Wyo past two seasons though could not cover as 35-point chalk LY. In winning six straight vs. Cowboys, Broncos have never prevailed by fewer than 20 points. Broncs 5-0-1 vs. line last six away from blue carpet. Bohl 8-4 last 12 as dog.

Boise State, based on series trends.


NORTH TEXAS at UTSA...UNT 5-0-1 vs. line last six TY, Mean Green now 9-4-1 vs. spread since McCarney fired midway thru LY. UTSA only 3-10 as chalk since 2014 (0-2TY).

North Texas, based on team trends.


KENTUCKY at MISSOURI... UK broke 3-game SU and spread losing streak vs. Mizzou LY. Stoops rallying with four covers in a row TY. Tigers on 5-13 spread skid since LY (2-4 for Odom).

Kentucky, based on recent trends.


ULM at ARKANSAS STATE...Red Wolves have won and covered last six vs. ULM and ASU is 10-5 vs. line at home past two seasons. No covers last three TY for Warhawks.

Slight to Arkansas Sate, based on series trends.


OLD DOMINION at UTEP.. Miners lost at Norfolk LY and just 8-12-2 last 22 on board since late 2014. No more Sun Bowl magic for UTEP, which has dropped last three vs. spread at home.

Old Dominion, based on recent trends.


MICHIGAN at MICHIGAN STATE...Wolves last won SU vs. Spartans in 2012 but no covers last 9 in series vs. MSU. Spartans 1-6 vs. line in 2016 and now 3-8 vs. number last 11 at East Lansing. Dantonio still 11-2 last 13 as dog (1-0 TY).

Slight to Michigan State, based on series trends.


WASHINGTON at UTAH...Utes won at Seattle LY. Huskies 1-1 vs. line away TY and only 3-3- last six in role, though Petersen on 8-2 spread surge since late LY. Whittingham 6-2 last 8 as dog.

Slight to Washington, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA STATE at OREGON...Ducks now on 5-game SU losing streak after Cal loss, and 0-5-2 vs. line TY. Ducks just 2-9 vs. spread last 11 at Autzen Stadium. ASU however 0-3 vs. line away TY as home team has covered last seven Sun Devils games.

Slight to ASU, based on recent Duck woes.


UNLV at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU 3-0 SU and vs. line against Rebs since joining MW. Rebs only 2-5 vs. line last 7 away for Sanchez, though Spartans only 2-5 vs. line in 2016..

Slight to SJSU, based on series trends.


NEW MEXICO at HAWAII...Bows only 2-7 vs. line last 9 at Aloha and no covers last five as home chalk. Though Hawaii is 5-2 vs. line TY in Rolo debut. Lobos 12-7-1 vs. line away since 2014.

Slight to New Mexico, based on team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Post: 9:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 72 - Purse:$5000 - FILLIES & MARES CLAIMING $5000
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 CUTIE PALONE 2/1
# 6 STONE OF MAGIC 15/1
# 3 LOTSA JUICE 5/1

After thorough analysis by the brain trust, CUTIE PALONE comes out as the top selection. Might be there at a good price tag. Quite possibly one to keep in your exotics. The handicapping team gives this entrant a very nice chance to win this one, class figures are tops in the group. Is a sharp win contender given the 68 speed rating from her most recent race. STONE OF MAGIC - Has the perfect running style to beat this grouping, according to the pace figures. LOTSA JUICE - The trainer Sloan has a knack with this mare, regularly cashing in their races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We say goodbye to Belmont Park and Keeneland this weekend, but next Friday Aqueduct opens for its fall/winter meeting and of course we have the Breeders’ Cup next Friday and Saturday from Santa Anita.

Closing day at Keeneland is this afternoon, with a good 10-race card highlighted by the $200,000 Fayette (G2) at nine furlongs on the main track.

A field of eight line up led by 6-5 morning line favorite Noble Bird, who took the field gate to wire to win the Lukas Classic in his last outing at Churchill Downs.

Earlier this spring the Mark Casse trainee earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure winning the Pimlico Special (G3) by 11 ¼ lengths.

Belmont Park features three stakes on Saturday’s card. The fall championship meeting concludes on Sunday.

I whine plenty about short fields in stakes at Belmont Park but that is not the case for today’s $200,000 Bold Ruler (G3) which drew a solid field of 13 runners that will go seven furlongs on the main track.

The Chad Brown duo of Economic Model (3-1) and Threefiveindia (6-1) look formidable.

The $100,000 Awad drew a field of nine juveniles that will travel one mile on turf. Again, Brown could be the one to beat. He saddles Heaven Is Waiting, who was sixth in the Bourbon (G3) at Keeneland in his last start.

Harlan’s Harmony (5-1) looks like a player if he gets a better trip today than in his fifth-place finish in the Summer (G2) last out at Woodbine.

The stakes action on Saturday at Belmont Park starts in the fourth race with the $200,000 Turnback the Alarm Handicap (G3) which drew a field of seven fillies and mares that go 1 1/16 miles on the main track.

Lewis Bay is the 6-5 morning line favorite for Brown. The filly makes her first start since running fourth in the Test (G1) at Saratoga on Aug. 6.


Here is the opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:

BEL Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:55 ET)
#1 Now in a Drive 6-1
#5 Oiseau de Guerre 2-1
#8 Concomitant 8-1
#9 Kahramani 5-1

Analysis: Now in a Drive put in a good effort in a third place finish in his debut at the Spa going long on turf. The winner J.S. Choice came back to run second in the Pilgrim (G3) in his next outing here on Oct. 1. The $150,000 Keeneland purchase is by Tiznow out of the stakes winner Ocean Drive ($803,986) who has dropped five winners and four have won on turf, with a pair of stakes winners, top earner West Ocean ($355,840).

Oiseau de Guerre had a clear lead heading for home in his debut but got run down late, settling for the runner up spot. Brown thought enough of that effort to step him up last out where he ran sixth in the Pilgrim. He is back in the maiden ranks here and the logical one to beat. He is by War Front out of a stakes placed Arch mare that has dropped two dirt winners but no turf winners to date.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9
TRI: 1,5 / 1,5,8,9 / 1,5,8,9,12

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:

BEL Race 9 The Bold Ruler G3 (5:08 ET)
#4 Economic Model 3-1
#2 Threefiveindia 6-1
#6 Stallwalkin' Dude 7-2
#8 Ami's Flatter 5-1

Analysis: Economic Model tracked thee early pace and finished up well for the runner up spot last out in the King's Bishop (G1), catching a racing strip that was kind to inside speed. The winner Defrong took the field gate to wire for the Baffert barn and will be one of the favorites for the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) next Saturday. Our top pick has landed in the exacta in 6 of his 7 career starts and while his stakes win came in the Easy Goer going 1 1/16 miles he did run second in the seven furlong Swale (G2) at Gulfstream Park back in January in his second career start.

Threefiveindia stumbled coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace form the inside (often not the place to be at Philly) and rallied for third in the Gallant Bob behind a couple of runners being pointed toward the Sprint. The Brown trainee has earned solid numbers in his last two starts and still looks as if he has some upside. Castellano sticks as he makes his third start of his current form cycle and should be a fair price.

Stallwalkin' Dude was a good second behind Joking and two back third behind A.P. Indian, a couple of solid sprinters that are Sprint bound. He earned a career top speed fig last out in his runner up finish in the Vosburgh (G1). He was only beaten 4 3/4 lengths when eighth in last year's Sprint. The Jacobson trainee has earned nearly $1 million without a graded stakes win.

Wagering
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,6,8 / 2,4,6,8,13

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Keeneland:

KEE Race 9 The Fayette G2 (5:30 ET)
#8 Divining Rod 5-1
#2 Noble Bird 6-5
#3 Kasaqui 6-1
#7 Iron Fist 5-1

Analysis: Divining Rod came back off a year layoff with back to back wins at Philly, beating Alw-2 and Alw-3 company, last out by just a neck. The colt won the Lexington (G3) over the main track here last spring and was third in the Preakness (G1) and beaten just a head when third in the Ohio Derby. He needs to run back to those numbers here, but I'll take a positive view with the sharp Delacour barn calling the shots and Geroux picks up the call.

Noble Bird took the field gate to wire to win the Lukas Classic last out over a wet track at Churchill Downs. He bounced back after getting beaten double digit lengths two and three back in Grade 1 company. He ran huge winning the Pimlico Special (G1) four back earning a 110 Beyer. He looks back on track and Casse finds a great spot for him here but his price is going to be on the light side.

Wagering
WIN: #8 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8
TRI: 2,8 / 2,3,7,8 / 2,3,6,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Belmont Park
R1: #8 Concomitant 8-1
R2: #9 Prime Time Man 10-1
R5: #7 Altar Boy 10-1
R5: #6 Grey Fox 15-1
R7: #3 Takaful 8-1
R8: #3 No Texting 10-1
R8: #5 Lead by Example 10-1
R10: #5 Full Sum Prisum 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $28000 Class Rating: 60

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 8 MISCHIEVOUS BELLE 8/1

# 6 CROWN EXPRESS 10/1

# 10 WITT SEVEN 20/1

I think MISCHIEVOUS BELLE is a strong selection especially at 8/1. Will more than likely be one of the front-runners of the group going into the halfway point of the outing. This pony should be played at the expected high odds. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint races in this group. CROWN EXPRESS - A solid 51 avg class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group of animals. WITT SEVEN - The average class fig of 36 makes this horse hard to beat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Hawthorne - Race #5 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $8,200 Class Rating: 97

Rating:

#7 PILATUS (ML=5/1)
#10 ICE CLIMBER (ML=8/1)
#5 FRONTIER FORCE (ML=7/2)
#2 AWAY WESTWARD (ML=6/1)


PILATUS - Don't throw this horse out due to his last race at Hawthorne where he ended up eighth on the soft turf. Expect better today. ICE CLIMBER - This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last start at Arlington. You probably want to disregard that effort. FRONTIER FORCE - This thoroughbred coming off a good effort in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my humble opinion. Running 1 mile on the turf, you've have to look at horse's turf figures. This animal has the tops in the bunch. I like the fact that this gelding's last speed fig, 97, is tops in this field. AWAY WESTWARD - Rivelli is solid in turf routes. This animal should have no rationalizations if he doesn't win. This gelding hasn't won in his last three starts, but he did win on July 1st against better at 1 mile. In the last race, finished sixth in the slop at Hawthorne. Have to do better in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CRUACHAN (ML=9/2),

CRUACHAN - Don't believe this racer will do much running in today's event. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's class rating.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #7 PILATUS to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Freehold Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Post: 2:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 88 - Purse:$7000 - PREFERRED HANDICAP PACE PP 1 - 2 DRAWN PP 3 - 7 DRAWN PP 8 ASSIGNED NO. 1 & NO. 5 FUSCO JR TRAINED ENTRY UNCOUPLED PER NJRC
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 4 DIAL OR NODIAL 7/1
# 6 TRACK MASTER D 7/1
# 8 ALLSTAR PARTNER 8/5

DIAL OR NODIAL will have you running to the cashier's window here especially at a long price. Unquestionably the class of the grouping with an average rating of 90. A nice choice. Earned a 86 speed figure last time out. A duplicate affair here should get the top prize in this race. Considered a solid bet based solely on his high win figure. TRACK MASTER D - Not many knocks against this fine animal, let's give him a shot. ALLSTAR PARTNER - Take a look at this race horse's avg speed figure of 95 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a very nice wager. With a 91 average class number, this standardbred has one of the most compelling class advantages in the group of horses.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,800 Class Rating: 99

Rating:

#6 PATRIOTICANDPROUD (ML=3/1)
#5 ULTIMATE DESTINY (ML=5/2)


PATRIOTICANDPROUD - Husbands should have him moving solid on the turn. This horse didn't run well on the soft turf in his last start at Woodbine. You may want to discount that effort. ULTIMATE DESTINY - A winning percent like 50 is fantastic for any jockey/handler tandem. This gelding's last race was better than looked. He showed good speed, dropped back a bit but held even through to the finish. This horse picks up a lot of dough per start. Tops in this event. This gelding's last speed rating notched on Oct 22nd is in the top spot in last race speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 BORN IN A BREEZE (ML=4/1), #7 NIIGON'S GLORY (ML=6/1), #3 MOONSHINE MARTINI (ML=8/1),

BORN IN A BREEZE - Difficult to bet on at 4/1 odds after the two most recent efforts. This colt registered a speed figure in his last race which likely isn't good enough in today's event. NIIGON'S GLORY - I can't play this continual non-winner. Gets the job finished from time to time. This horse ran a most unsatisfactory speed fig last out. He shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that figure. MOONSHINE MARTINI - There may be a set back this time, after the good effort last out.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Go with #6 PATRIOTICANDPROUD on top if we're getting at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #4 - BELMONT PARK - 2:34 PM EASTERN POST

The Turnback the Alarm Handicap

8½ FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200,000.00 PURSE

#2 LEWIS BAY
#6 ESKENFORMONEY
#4 INNOVATIVE IDEA
#5 RACHAEL'S TEMPER

Here in the 21st running of the Turnback the Alarm, traditionally conducted near the end of daylight saving time, was held at Aqueduct 1995-2009 and in 2011 and was run at at Belmont in 2010, #2 LEWIS BAY takes a class drop (-4), is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in four of her last five outings, including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer Chad Brown send her to the post for the first of 3 stakes events on today's card ... they've hit the board with 59% of more than 225 entries saddled as a team to date. #6 ESKENFORMONEY is 4-1 in the morning line, qualifies as a TrackMaster PLUS "PowerPony," and has hit the board in three of her last four starts, winning in her 4th race back.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 3 - Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $20900 Class Rating: 99

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 TINTO MESA 5/2

# 7 NEBIKON 12/1

# 2 HAULER 6/1

TINTO MESA looks strong to best this field. Could provide positive profits based on formidable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 89. Going in a dirt route race gives this gelding a solid shot. He has put up respectable figs under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this field. NEBIKON - Must be carefully examined in this contest if only for the formidable Equibase speed fig earned in the last outing. HAULER - He has quite good class ratings, averaging 99, and has to be given a shot for this event. Will most likely compete soundly in the early speed clash which bodes well with this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mohawk: Saturday 10/29 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


PICK 5: 3,4/3,4,5/3,4,6,7/2,6,7/3,6 = $28.80

EARLY PICK 4: 2,6,7/3,6/2,6,7,8/4,8 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,7/4,7/3,4,6/4,5,9 = $54

MEET STATS: 446 - 1322 / $2325.70 BEST BETS: 70 - 121 / $218.40

SPOT PLAYS: 29 - 121 / $182.30

Best Bet: WHISKEY TAX (8th)

Spot Play: MACH CODE (3rd)


Race 1

(4) RENEGADE MAGIC is on a roll and she seems to be able to win from anywhere right now; call for a three-peat. (3) CLASSIC VENTURE should find these easier and he returns much quicker this time. Toss him on your Pick 5 ticket. (7) MARQUIS VOLO was a good 2nd to the choice last time and he should share racing from off the pace again here. (5) ZAGSTER is another that will be passing horses late here; for a share.

Race 2

(3) EVENIN OF PLEASURE had two strikes against him last week - racing near the lead and on the inside, both of which were impossible spots that night - and he can rebound here. (4) ELLIS PARK continues to race tough every week and he is a main player here again. (5) NICKLE BAG was too far back last time. Expect him to get into action earlier here. (1) ALEXAS JACKPOT predictably was picked off late last week on a night where leaders just couldn't win. He can hang around for a slice here.

Race 3

(6) MACH CODE had a tightener racing near the lead on a speed-killing track last week. He could do much better at a price here. (3) WINDSONG LIGHTNING made two moves to win and he is streaking right now; using. (7) ARSENIC should show speed here from a better post and he is in with an upset chance. (4) FLAHERTY comes off a lifetime-best score and he is another to consider in a race full of possibilities.

Race 4

(2) COOL ROCK was 2nd in a rapid qualifier to a horse that set some big splits and won when entered for a purse. He is worth a try here, possibly at a very good price. (6) ERLE DALE N fell victim to the closer bias last Saturday. He should rebound with a better effort here. (7) HALF A BILLION keeps coming close and he will get there one of these weeks. (1) AUDREYS DREAM should lay closer and pass some of these for a share here.

Race 5

(3) COUNTER STRIKE is as consistent as they come and he should be tough in here racing from close range. (6) VELOCITY DRIVEN gets some class relief here. He should be heard from late. (10) IDOLE DUHARAS had a decent return race but he races best near the lead. He could blast off the gate here, even from this post. (2) REEL figures to sit an inside trip and parlay that into a share here.

Race 6

(2) ITS HUW YOU KNOW should go better this week if the track is kinder to early speed types; call to upset. (8) YOURE MAJESTIC is sharp and has been racing effectively using various styles. Put her on your Pick 4 tickets. (7) GRANA PADANNO made a big move then stopped last week. He can do much better here if he can find some cover. (6) WANAKA can close for a smaller share here.

Race 7

(8) SOUTHWIND GEISHA could upset this group if put into action earlier in a race that screams 'upset' when you look at the past performance page. (4) MAPLELEA drops again and figures on paper, but, she keeps burning money. (3) GRACIES PARADE drops to a class where she fits better and she is another in with a decent chance here. (1) BAROCKEY has been racing great but it's hard to say how she will bounce back from the vet scratch-sick here.

Race 8

(7) WHISKEY TAX looks formidable again here in a somewhat watered down Preferred class. (4) ETRUSCAN HANOVER exploded late last week in an impressive performance, but it was aided by a bias that favored outside closers all night. He is sharp but I wouldn't take a short price here. (5) INTIMIDATE is more likely to take a slice than win here. (6) NAHAR didn't show much last week. A smaller share seems to be his ceiling here.

Race 9

(4) CRUISE PATROL may have been on his way to victory when he broke last week. He can make amends if he stays pacing here. (7) BEYOND DELIGHT - Metro Pace winner - shows up in a strange spot, taking on three and four-year-olds. He is obviously capable, but you have to wonder about intent here. (6) MAYFIELD DUKE had equipment issues last week when distanced. He figures here and should rebound with a better performance. (9) DREAMY FELLA will be passing horses in the back 1/2; toss him on your exotic wagers.

Race 10

(6) EASY LOVER HANOVER could get his preferred trip in the pocket again here and pounce late; come again. (3) WAZZUP WAZZUP drops in class and is sure to be a major factor here. (4) VEGAS ROCKS moves back up after an aggressive win but he figures here, too. (5) HEZA THRILL should be closing for a minor award this time.

Race 11

(5) REGAL SON was one of few horses to race near the front and stick around at the finish last Saturday. He could carve out a winning pocket trip if he leaves here. (9) SPORTSMANSHIP was full value for his win last time as all but the pocket sitter finished far back. He will have to be caught here. (4) WEATHERLEY made an early wide move on the turn and it paid off last week, but the bias also helped him. He's in with a shot here, but this assignment looks tougher. (2) ELECTRIC WESTERN showed some uncharacteristic early foot last week and hung around. He is sharp and can take a share here. (1) SINGLE WHITE SOCK should take advantage of his good post and grab a slice.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 10/29 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 14 - 27 / $68.40 (+$14.40)

BEST BETS: 1 - 2 / $2.40 (-1.60)

Best Bet: WALNER (6th)

Spot Play: ROARING TO GO (5th)


Race 1

(3) AIR STRIKE was racing very well at Hoosier and qualified here in good order. These Indiana-bred horses have proven they can make it on the east coast. (6) CHIP WALTHER has come around in recent weeks and rates as the horse to beat. (1) MAC’S JACKPOT has been in some tough spots in recent weeks but I wouldn’t discount his chances. (11) HYPOTHETICAL should save ground early from the second tier and get into the exotics.

Race 2

(2) STAY UP LATE comes off a game try where multi-millionaire Clear Vision proved too tough for him. This looks like a good spot to make amends for the defeat. (1) ITRUSTYOU picks up Gingras, who gunned this guy down the road at Tioga the last time he was in the bike. (6) DEMOCRACY N ships in from Yonkers in decent form; longshot player.

Race 3

(5) BOSTON RED ROCKS swung wide but really wasn’t going very far after chasing through a slow 56 2/5 opening half last time. I’m not sure this is an easy spot, but it is easier than last week and there seems to be plenty of early speed to set him up if driven conservatively. (4) IN THE ARSENAL has been hot and cold in recent starts; mixed feelings. (2) GHOST PINE finished close in a pretty quick mile last time and merits a look in here at a price.

Race 4

The 2-year-old filly trot really comes down to what you think of (4) ARIANA G. If you believe as I do that she is by far the fastest filly in the race, the potential for off-time odds around even money are very appealing. (10) PRINCESS AURORA is the one filly in the race which may have gotten me off #4. She came into her elimination on a roll and stormed home from an impossible spot after a very conservative drive. If there is any driver who can figure out a way to overcome post 10, it is new pilot Brian Sears. (3) CHEZATTER defeated the top pick off a perfect pocket trip last time; clearly dangerous. (1) THAT’S ALL MONI has never missed the board in 2016.

Race 5

(5) ROARING TO GO has impressed me over the last month with strong early speed and more importantly, a big finishing kick. I think she would have won by five lengths if the race was a sixteenth of a mile longer last Saturday. (9) IDYLLIC BEACH seems likely to drift well above the odds-on mark she has been going off week after week. Takter/Gingras filly raced against the bias and held well last time; very dangerous. (10) AGENT Q has never been worse than second in her career but could get lost in the wagering shuffle from post 10. (6) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE is another who raced gamely against the off-the-pace bias; very playable.

Race 6

(2) WALNER jumps off the page against this otherwise evenly-matched group of rookie trotters. Unless he makes an unexpected mistake, there is no way he loses. (7) MOONSHINER HANOVER comes away from the gate well and that could make him the last of the early speed to get the front. He is clearly adept at chasing and the pocket behind Walner, who seems destined to make a quick backside brush to the front, is a good place to be. (1) GIVEITGASANDGO has plenty of form, a great record and an inside post to work with. (4) SORTIE looked good last time but needs to knock a couple of seconds off his lifetime mark to compete.

Race 7

(3) HUNTSVILLE & (2) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE are extremely fast freshman pacing colts that have separated themselves from the rest of this division. I’m going to give the slight edge to the former because he is simply more manageable and will allow driver Tim Tetrick more options than David Miller will have behind ‘Seaside’. (5) BOOGIE SHUFFLE has only missed the board twice in his career. He got stuck in a bad spot last week and closed willingly. (1) FILIBUSTER HANOVER has more ability than we have seen and could offer some value in the trifecta.

Race 8

On any given evening three or maybe four of these trotters can step up and take a photo. That said, for my money, (3) BAR HOPPING has the most dynamic turn of speed in the group. I’m looking for him to unleash a bold backstretch burst and hold on for the score. (2) MARION MARAUDER has won the Triple Crown and never throws in a dull effort; must use. (4) SUTTON has dangerous early speed but seems more one dimensional than the others. (9) SOUTHWIND FRANK was just OK last time and now is saddled with an outside post.

Race 9

With all due respect to the rest of these fillies, (5) BROADWAY DONNA has simply looked tremendous in recent weeks. With some outside speed signed on and two solid foes in posts 1 and 2, Miller should be able to bide his time and follow one of those foes for a sweet cover trip. (2) ALL THE TIME has done everything right since returning from surgery and displayed a quick stretch burst winning her elimination last out; one to fear. (8) FAD FINANCE challenged hard and held well in last week’s elimination and now adds Brian Sears. (1) CAPRICE HILL has missed the board once in 23 career starts. I respect her chances but will likely steer clear on the win end.

Race 10

(6) DARLINONTHEBEACH was used to the front, set the fastest half and three quarter times of the night and only lost by 1-1/4 lengths on a track that wasn’t overly kind to speed. I see no reason not to expect a strong effort at what could be 2-1. (3) PURE COUNTRY is racing as well now as she has all year. Jimmy Takter trainee will not go down without a fight. (4) NEWBORN SASSY has picked up her game in recent weeks but still rates as a bit slower than the top pair.

Race 11

(3) LYONS SNYDER responded nicely to the soft hands of Sears in last week’s elimination. In a field lacking a clear standout, I’ll take a stab here. (6) KATIES ROCKER got stuck in a bad spot a week ago and lost any chance. Gelding hinted at talent earlier in his career and doesn’t face an impossible task tonight. (1) WESTERN FAME is arguably the sharpest horse in the field but he’ll have to work very hard to go the distance. (5) RACING HILL wasn’t awful last time but clearly isn’t the horse he was earlier in the year; mixed feelings.

Race 12

(1) I’M SOME GRADUATE got nailed by the ground-saving (3) SPICEBOMB last week. I’m going to stick with him as he should be able to control the action if desired in this spot. The latter has a solid record in limited starts and remains a huge threat. (2) MISTY ON THE BEACH tired in the stretch after quick fractions a week ago; using underneath.

Race 13

(1) GURL BAND K comes in off a monster mile at Pocono and seems worth a shot. (4) NO CHASER wasn’t very good in the slop last time. She probably deserves a second chance. (10) V STRING & (9) CAVIART ALLY look good on paper but are saddled with outside posts. If either gets a decent trip they will be big players.