Saturday 10/18/14 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College Betting Recap - Week 7
By Daniel Dobish

Overall Notes

College Football Week 7 Results

Wager Favorites-Underdogs

Straight Up 42-12
Against the Spread 25-29

Wager Home-Away

Straight Up 30-24
Against the Spread 25-29

Wager Totals (O/U)

Over-Under 27-25-1


The largest underdog to cash
Eastern Michigan (+14.5, ML +500) vs Buffalo, 37-27

The largest favorite to cash
Tennessee (-25) vs Chattanooga, 45-10

Top 25 Notes
-- The upset bug took the weekend off after a tumultuous week for high ranked teams in the previous Saturday. Top 10 teams went 9-1 straight-up (SU) and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). Only Auburn fell, and that's because they were matched up against Mississippi State.

-- Oregon fell out of the Top 10 with their setback against Arizona last weekend, but they got back on track with a 42-30 win at UCLA.

-- Alabama just narrowly averted its second straight loss, hanging onto a 14-13 win at Arkansas. The Hogs were able to score against the Tide for the first time since 2011.

-- Oklahoma State is well down the rankings, but their only loss of the season is to top-ranked Florida State in their opening game in Arlington. The Cowboys likely won't shoot up the rankings after looking rather sluggish at Kansas. The Cowboys won, but didn't come close to covering.

-- Notre Dame was in a defensive slugfest last weekend with Stanford, but this week was a track meet with North Carolina. The Irish were unable to cover for just the second time in six games. As a double-digit home favorite, the Irish are just 1-2 ATS.

-- Overall in the Top 25, ranked teams were 14-7 SU and 6-15 ATS, with five games featuring ranked teams facing each other.

Big Five Conference Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

-- In the ACC, Florida State looked like a top-ranked team for the second straight game, having no trouble with an inferior opponent at Syracuse, 38-20. Of course, the Orange were able to score a touchdown with 10:37 left in regulation to grab a cover. ... UNC covered for the first time in six tries in South Bend Saturday. The Tar Heels have given up 27 or more points in each of their six games this season, and 50 or more points in three of their past four. ... Miami-Florida got back on track with a 55-34 win and cover over Cincinnati. The Hurricanes are 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS, including three straight covers, at home.

-- One of the best games of the day took place in Waco in Big 12 action, especially if you like offense. Texas Christian piled up 58 points in regulation - and lost. Baylor trailed 58-37 with 11:38 left, but the Bears hit a field goal at the buzzer to stun the Horned Frogs. ... Kansas has dropped three straight, but they are 3-1 ATS in the past four outings. The 'under' has also cashed in five straight for the Jayhawks. ... Texas slipped to 2-4 SU with a narrow 31-26 loss to Oklahoma in the Red River rivalry game, but they covered for the third time in four outings.

-- Minnesota won and covered against Northwestern in an early-afternoon game, winning 24-17. The Gophers have won and covered three straight, and their only setback this season came at TCU back on Sept. 13. ... Iowa posted a season-high 45 points in their win over Indiana. After starting out 0-3 ATS, the Hawkeyes have covered three in a row. ... Wisconsin won for the fourth time in five games, but the Badgers have failed to cover in three straight, and they're just 1-5 ATS on the season.

-- It was a light slate in the Pac-12, with Arizona State, Colorado, Oregon State and Utah getting the week off. ... Washington brought California down to Earth quite a bit with a 31-7 win in Berkeley. It was quite amazing since Cal had scored 60 points last week in a win at Washington State. ... Southern California outlasted Arizona 28-26 in an amazing game in Tucson (see Bad Beats below).

There were no hiccups from the Magnolia State teams in SEC play. After huge wins a week ago, Mississippi and Mississippi State were impressive again versus big-time SEC West foes. Ole Miss pounded A&M 35-20 in front of the 12th man, and the Bulldogs fileted the Tigers 38-23, likely staking claim to the No. 1 spot in the rankings for the first time in school history. The Bulldogs have covered four straight, and they're 5-1 ATS this season. The Rebels, also 6-0 SU, improved to 5-0-1 ATS on the season. ... Louisiana State won 30-27 at Florida on a 50-plus field goal in the waning seconds. LSU is 25-1 SU under Les Miles following a loss.

Mid-Major Report

It was a topsy-turvy day in the Mid-American Conference. Eastern Michigan scored the biggest upset of the week with a 37-27 win over Buffalo. The Eagles are just 2-4 SU, but they have covered three of the past four. ... Massachusetts snapped a 12-game losing streak with a 40-17 win at Kent State. While the Minutemen have struggled straight-up, they are 5-1 ATS over the past six games. ... Toledo lost on the road to Iowa State, and the Rockets are just 1-5 ATS over the past six.

--Georgia Southern was back to its covering ways, taking down Idaho as a 21.5-point favorite. The Eagles are now 6-1 ATS in seven games this season. ... For the sixth straight game, New Mexico State saw the cover hit. They travel to the Kibbie Dome in Idaho next week. The Vandals have seen the over go 4-1-1 in six games this season.

-- In Mountain West play, Colorado State won for the fourth straight games, and they are also 4-0 ATS during the span while the under has cashed in three in a row. ... Air Force was buried 34-16 at Utah State. The under hit for the third straight game for the Falcons, and the under is 5-1 in six games this season. ... New Mexico lost Friday to San Diego State, and the Lobos are just 1-5 ATS this season.

Bad Beats

If you had the 'over' (54.5) in the Boston College-North Carolina State game, you were loving the 14-14 score at the end of the first quarter. However, the rains came after halftime, and there was a lightning delay. That caused the scoring to grind to a halt, and there were just nine total points in the second half on the soggy turf.

-- If you had Arizona on the moneyline, it was a tough loss. The Wildcats scratched back from 15 down to close to 28-26. After a successful onside kick, Arizona drove down for a very makeable field goal. However, a successful kick didn't count because USC called timeout first to ice the kicker. It actually worked, as the attempt from 36 yards was well wide right, and the Trojans held on while Wildcats' moneyline bettors shook their head.

-- Also in the Pac-12 Friday, Washington State looked to be in line for a cover. However, some late offensive struggles gave Stanford the ball back. Rather than sitting on the lead, the Cardinal poked in a touchdown with 98 seconds left to kill Cougar side bettors.

-- Total bettors in UMass-Kent State were either happy or destroyed by a pick-six by the Minutemen with 2:03 left. Under bettors likely had to settle for a push.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 7
By Mike Rose

Week 7 of the 2014 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1) Florida State (W-L vs. Syracuse 38-20)
The Noles never broke a sweat against Syracuse, but they were never good enough to cover either.

2) Auburn (L-L vs. Mississippi State 38-23)
Home field advantage is really going to be key in the SEC West this year, and Auburn fell victim to all of the cowbells in Starkville.

3) Baylor (W-L vs. TCU 61-58)
The Bears rallied with 24 straight in the fourth to take down TCU and live to fight another day on Survival Saturday.

4) Ole Miss (W-W vs. Texas A&M 35-20)
All of the hype is around MSU, but Ole Miss legitimately has a claim to No. 1 as well after putting forth a dominating performance on the road in College Station a week after upsetting annual powerhouse Alabama.

5) Notre Dame (W-L vs. North Carolina 50-43)
Up Next) A date with the defending champs. Notre Dame's defense looked like it was already looking ahead to Jameis Winston and the gang in Tallahassee before dealing with UNC.

6) Mississippi State (W-W vs. Auburn 38-23)
Dan Mullen has brought the Bulldogs all the way up to the No. 1 team in the land.

7) Alabama (W-L vs. Arkansas 14-13)
The Tide look like anything but a legit playoff team right now. They were lucky to escape Fayetteville with their playoff hopes still intact.

8) Michigan State (W-L vs. Purdue 45-31)
A late pick six was all that made this game look more respectable than it really was for Sparty.

9) Oklahoma (W-L vs. Texas 31-26)
The Sooners went 1-for-11 on third downs and were outgained by 250 yards in the Red River Rivalry, but they lived to tell about it.

10) Georgia (W-W vs. Missouri 34-0)
No Todd Gurley? No problems for the Bulldogs. Likely the most impressive win of the Richt era.

11) Oregon (W-W vs. UCLA 42-30)
There are still really big problems along the offensive line for the Ducks, who are barely skating by.

12) TCU (L-L vs. Baylor 61-58)
The Horned Frogs will rue the day that they let one get away in Waco.

13) Arizona (L-L vs. USC 28-26)
We knew that the Wildcats were always fools' gold. There's a reason the oddsmakers opened them up as dogs against an unranked USC team at home.

14) Texas A&M (L-L vs. Ole Miss 35-20)
Kiss A&M's chances of playing in the first playoff goodbye after a second straight loss to a Mississippi school.

15) Ohio State (Bye)

16) Kansas State (Bye)

17) UCLA (L-L vs. UCLA 42-30)
The Bruins had fighting on their bench between coaches, and that's not something you see every day.

18) Oklahoma State (W-L vs. Kansas 27-20)
The Pokes were on high upset alert most of the day before squeaking out a win in Lawrence.

19) East Carolina (W-L vs. South Florida 28-17)
It took 30 minutes for the Pirates to wake up, but they finally downed a bad USF team.

20) Arizona State (Bye)

21) Nebraska (Bye)

22) Stanford (W-W vs. Washington State 34-17)
A week after Connor Halliday broke the NCAA record for passing yards in a game, he had zip going against the Cardinal.

23) Georgia Tech (L-L vs. Duke 31-25)
The Ramblin' Wreck lost to Duke for the first time in a decade and a half on Saturday.

24) Missouri (L-L vs. Georgia 34-0)
Maty Mauk and the Mizzou offense were just downright embarrassing on Saturday.


25) Clemson (W-L vs. Louisville 23-17)
The win meant nothing. Deshaun Watson's broken hand meant everything. The freshman phenom will now be out for at least a month with this injury.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF opening line report: Hard to trust Notre Dame vs. Florida State
By COLIN KELLY

Yes, we’re heading into Week 8 of the 2014 college football season. But this week, we’re gonna party like its 1993.

Notre Dame at Florida State (-12.5)

Back then, unbeaten and top-ranked Florida State faced unbeaten and second-ranked Notre Dame in a late-season battle that the host fighting Irish won, 31-24. Notre Dame faltered a week later, though, losing to Boston College, while the Seminoles rebounded and ultimately won the national title.

Twenty-one years later, both are unbeaten again, and defending national champion Florida State will get to host Notre Dame this Saturday. The winner keeps alive hopes to reach the four-team playoff, and the loser is on the outside looking in. The No. 2 ‘Noles (6-0 SU) have been awful against the number, at 1-5 ATS, failing to cover as 23-point chalks in a 38-20 win at Syracuse last weekend. The fifth-ranked Irish (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) struggled Saturday, holding on for a 50-43 win over North Carolina as a 16.5-point favorite.

John Lester, is wary of both sides – but more so Notre Dame.

“We still haven’t seen that convincing, marquee win from Florida State. Perhaps they’ve just been going through the motions,” Lester said. “This could be the week, as Notre Dame isn’t nearly as deep from a talent perspective. The Irish always have their supporters, but they’re tough to trust right now, from a sharp standpoint.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide (-12.5)

Another week, another key clash in the Southeastern Conference, which continues to eat its own – with the exception of Mississippi State and Mississippi, whom A&M has lost to over the past two weekends to soil its season. On Saturday, the Aggies got drubbed at home by Ole Miss 35-20 as a 2.5-point fave.

Alabama bounced back from its loss at Mississippi by narrowly outlasting Arkansas 14-13, falling well short as a 9-point road chalk.

“Going back to last week, I called for the Aggies to get upset at home (by Mississippi,)” Lester said. “The Johnny Manziel hype is over; this is a bad defense with a decent offense. The Tide is poised for a breakout game, and this should be it. The Alabama offense will find its footing here.”

Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners (-9.5)

Oklahoma (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has proven vulnerable the past two weekends, losing outright 37-33 at Texas Christian laying 3.5 points, then struggling to hold off overmatched Texas in a 31-26 win as a 16.5-point fave in the Red River Rivalry at the Cotton Bowl. Kansas State (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, coming off a bye, suffered its only loss against Auburn (20-14 catching 7 points at home last month). The Wildcats have cashed their last three in a row, most recently a 45-13 beatdown of Texas Tech giving 14 points at home.

“Is the blueprint out on Oklahoma?” Lester said. “Granted, it’s seen two very sound defenses recently, but Kansas State brings another one to the table, and Bill Snyder does a fine job getting his kids ready with extra preparation. The Wildcats aren’t the sexy team in this matchup, but I bet they keep it very close.”

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-9.5)

TCU (4-1 SU) is the only team in the nation with a perfect ATS mark, cashing in all five of its games – though Mississippi and Virginia are both 5-0-1. After upending Oklahoma 37-33 getting 3.5 points two weekends ago, the Horned Frogs blew a big lead and lost a shootout at No. 3 Baylor 61-58, but covered as a 7-point underdog.

Since losing its season opener at home to Florida State, Oklahoma State (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) has peeled off five consecutive SU wins. But the Cowboys have alternated ATS wins and losses all season, winning 27-20 at Kansas on Saturday, well short of covering as 19.5-point chalks.

“You always know what you’re going to get with Gary Patterson’s (TCU) squads – sound defense and sound special teams,” Lester said. “But the offense goes as the quarterback goes, and Trevone Boykin is erratic. This is the Cowboys’ first test since their opener against Florida State, so we will certainly see what they’re made of.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bad Company - Week 8
By Kevin Rogers

As conference season continues to roll on, the pointspreads aren’t as heavy as they were during non-league play. There are still plenty of awful teams out there looking to get through a miserable season and gives bettors a chance to fade them. We’ll start this week’s action inside the ACC with a team that has lost 11 consecutive conference games and is receiving plenty of points on the road.

N.C. State (+17) at Louisville – 3:30 PM EST

The wheels have officially fallen off the Wolfpack wagon as N.C. State coach Dave Doeren suspended seven players for Saturday’s game at Louisville for a BB gun incident. The Wolfpack has shot themselves in the foot plenty of times this season, including blowing a 24-7 lead to top-ranked Florida State before allowing 49 points in the final three quarters. N.C. State hasn’t won a conference game under Doeren, while posting an 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS record inside the ACC since the start of last season.

The Wolfpack travels to Louisville, as the Cardinals fell to 2-2 in ACC play after a 23-17 defeat at Clemson as 8 ½-point underdogs. Louisville’s defense has been solid all season long, not allowing more than 23 points in any of its seven games, while cashing the ‘under’ six times. In Bobby Petrino’s last 20 games as a home favorite at Louisville, the Cardinals have covered 17 times, including a 2-1 ATS record this season.

Cincinnati (-14) vs. SMU – 3:30 PM EST

Looking at this matchup, some would ask if the wrong team to fade is listed with SMU owning an 0-5 record. The Mustangs have been abysmal offensively this season, but showed some signs of life in a 45-24 setback at East Carolina two weeks ago to cover as a hefty 40-point underdog. The 24-point output by SMU doubled the amount of points it scored in the previous four games combined. Going back to the negatives with the Mustangs, this team has allowed at least 43 points in all five losses, while their only cover of the season came against ECU.

Cincinnati’s defense has been shredded all season, allowing 146 points in its past three defeats, including giving up 55 points in last week’s loss at Miami. The Bearcats have been outgained on the ground by at least 200 yards in the previous three games, while allowing 335 yards to the Hurricanes last week. From a pointspread standpoint, UC hasn’t covered in the past four contests, including an 0-2 SU/ATS record on the road. Cincinnati beat SMU last season at home, 38-35, but didn’t cash as seven-point favorites.

Ball State (+9 ½) at Central Michigan – 3:30 PM EST

Ball State dominated Colgate in its season opener, but the Cardinals haven’t won since, dropping five straight games. The Cards did cash as double-digit underdogs at Iowa and Toledo, but have allowed 75 points in the past two losses to Army and Western Michigan. Ball State’s defense is giving up nearly 200 yards a game on the ground, as this team has gone backwards since going 7-1 in MAC play last season.

Central Michigan has bounced back since a three-game losing streak following a 2-0 start, beating Ohio and Northern Illinois in the past two weeks. In those victories, the Chippewas rushed for 234 and 283 yards, which could spell major problems for Ball State’s anemic run defense. Central Michigan has plenty to play for against Ball State, considering the Cardinals have won four straight meetings in the series.

Kent (+5) vs. Army – 3:30 PM EST

The Golden Flashes are winless through six games, while not eclipsing the 17-point mark in any contest this season. Kent has been outgained in each loss, as the Golden Flashes were destroyed by previously winless UMass last week, 40-17 as three-point favorites. The lone game that Kent actually cashed came as 26-point underdogs at Northern Illinois in a 17-14 setback, while dropping 14 of its past 17 games dating back to last season.

Army has won just once in the past five games since a season-opening victory over Buffalo, while losing outright as a road favorite at Yale and Wake Forest. This seems like each team is fade material in this matchup, but the Black Knights are 2-0 against MAC opponents, beating Ball State and Buffalo, but each victory came at home. Army has dropped 18 straight road games with its last victory in a true away contest coming in 2010 at Kent State, so tread lightly here.

Georgia State (+17 ½) at South Alabama – 7:30 PM EST

This Sun Belt matchup won’t get a lot of attention on Saturday, as Georgia State has dropped five consecutive games. The Panthers have given up at least 34 points in all six contests, while coming off a 52-10 home defeat to Arkansas State last week. However, Georgia State has covered each of its two road games at Washington (+34 ½) and Louisiana-Lafayette (+16), while going 6-1 ATS in the away underdog role since the start of last season.

South Alabama returns home off back-to-back road victories at Idaho and Appalachian State, but the Jaguars scored a combined nine points in home losses to Georgia Southern and Mississippi State. The Jaguars have performed well since the end of last season in the favorite role, posting a 6-0 SU/ATS record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall

Saturday, October 18

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

MARSHALL at FIU...
Herd has now covered five straight and two straight as visiting chalk after 1-6 mark prior seven in role. Improving FIU has covered 6 of last seven TY.

Slight to FIU, based on team trends.


SYRACUSE at WAKE FOREST...
Cuse 2-4 vs. line last six TY. Also 0-2 as chalk TY but 5-2 last seven in role.

Slight to Wake, based on Cuse shortcomings.


MIAMI-OHIO at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...
NIU no covers last three TY after 8-2 previous ten vs. spread in reg. season. RedHawks have covered 2 of 3 on road TY for new HC Chuck Martin, but were 2-11 in role previous two seasons.

Slight to Miami, based on recent trends.


AKRON at OHIO...
Solich 5-1 vs. line last six in series, but Bobcats only 1-5 vs. line last six TY and 3-9 last 12 on board since mid 2013.

Slight to Akron, based on recent trends.


PURDUE at MINNESOTA...
Gophers 8-3 vs. line as host since LY. Kill also 10-4 last 14 as chalk. Improved Purdue has covered 4 of last 5 TY and 7-3 last 10 as road doggie.

Slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.


IOWA at MARYLAND...
The road team is 5-1 vs. line in Iowa games this season (Hawks 2-0 vs. line away). Ferentz has now covered eight straight away from Iowa City. Terps 2-5 vs. line last 7 at home.

Iowa, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at WEST VIRGINIA...
Briles 2-1 as road chalk TY but was 1-7 in previous eight in role entering 2014.

WVU, based on extended trends.


VIRGINIA at DUKE...
Duke 13-4 vs. spread as host since 2012. Cutcliffe has also won and covered last two and five of six vs. Cavs since arriving at Durham in 2008. Cavs are 5-1 vs. line TY, however.

Duke, based on series trends.


GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...
Tech 3-0-1 as road chalk since 2012; UNC 1-5 vs. line TY. Paul Johnson 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line against Heels since 2009.

GT, based on series and recent trends.


NC STATE at LOUISVILLE...
Pack 2-7-1 as road dog since 2011.

'Ville, based on team trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at UMASS...
Mass now has SU win and has covered 5 of last 6. EMU 8-21-1 vs. line since 2012.

UMass, based on team trends.


WESTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...
Spread revelation WMU is spotless 6-0 vs. line this season!

WMU, based on recent trends.


BALL STATE at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...
Cards are rather startling 39-15-1 vs. line as visitor since 2006 (2-1 TY).

Ball State, based on team trends.


GEORGIA vs. ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...
Bielema has covered five straight TY and is 6-2 last 8 on board. Richt only 1-5 as chalk away from Athens since LY.

Arkansas, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at WYOMING...
SJSU no covers last three on road, but if Wyo chalk note is 10-5 last 15 as road dog. Pokes 4-7 as Laramie chalk since 2012.

Slight to SJSU, based on extended trends.


NEW MEXICO at AIR FORCE...
Davie has covered last two years vs. Force and beat Falcs SU LY. Davie 5-2 last seven as road dog. Falco 3-0 SU and vs. line as host TY.

Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.


SOUTH FLORIDA at TULSA...
Golden Hurricane 5-13 SU and vs. line last 18 on board. Tulsa 2-7 SU and vs. line as host since LY. Shocker trend...
USF 5-1 vs. line on road since LY!

USF, based on team trends.


UTSA at LA TECH...
Coker no covers last four this season. Skip 5-1 vs. spread TY in big rebound for Tech.

La Tech, based on recent trends.


SOUTHERN MISS at NORTH TEXAS...
UNT down TY but 7-2 last nine as home chalk. USM improved from wretched recent form but still just 2-3-1 vs. line TY and only 8-21-1 vs. line since 2012.

UNT, based on team trends.


CINCINNATI at SMU...
Ponies 1-4 vs. line but did get cover in last game against ECU. Tuberville no covers last four TY and just 1-3 as road chalk since LY.

Slight to Cincy, based on recent SMU woes.


APP STATE at TROY...
App 1-3-1 vs. line in debut year (0-2-1 away), cover vs. Campbell Camels. But Troy 10-23 last 33 as chalk.

App State, based on Troy negatives.


NEVADA at BYU...
Cougs just 3-8 last 11 on board. Pack has covered 4 of last 5 away from Reno.

Nevada, based on team trends.


ARMY at KENT STATE...
Kent only 1-5 vs. line TY and 1-7 vs. spread at Dix Stadium since LY. But Army no covers first three away TY and no covers last 13 as visitor (did cover neutral LY vs. La Tech).

Army, based on Kent home negatives.


STANFORD at ARIZONA STATE...
Tree won and covered vs. ASU twice LY, but no covers first two away TY and just 2-6 last 8 as chalk away from Palo Alto. ASU no covers last three at Tempe.

Slight to ASU, based on team trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON...
Ducks have won and covered last 10 vs. Huskies. But Chris Petersen was 2-0 SU and vs. line vs. Ducks while at Boise, and Oregon now 2-10 vs. points last 12 reg.-season games. Huskies 5-1 as home dog since 2012.

UW, based on recent trends.


UCLA at CAL...
Bruins 1-5 vs. line in 2014, Cal 4-1 vs. spread. Bruins have lost last 7 SU trips to Berkeley, 1-6 vs. line in those games.

Cal, based on team and series trends.


UAB at MTSU...
Blazers 2-0 as road dog TY for new HC Clark, but MTSU 6-3 vs. spread last nine at Murfreesboro.

UAB, based on recent trends.


RUTGERS at OHIO STATE...
Urban Meyer 4-1 vs. line this season. 'Gers 9-3 as visiting dog since 2011 (2-0 TY).

'Gers, based on road dog mark.


TEXAS A&M at ALABAMA...
Ags have covered both vs. Bama since joining SEC and won at Tuscaloosa in 2012. But A&M only 7-13 vs. spread since 2013 and no covers last 3 as road dog. Nick 7-3 last 10 as home chalk.

Bama, based on recent trends.


COLORADO at SOUTHERN CAL...
Trojans 12-7 as Coliseum chalk since 2011 (2-1 TY for Sark). But Buffs 6-3 vs. line last nine for Mike M and have covered 3 of last 4 as Pac-12 road dog.

Slight to CU, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...
Dantonio 9-2 as visiting chalk since 2010. But home team has covered last three in series.

Slight to MSU, based on road chalk marks.


CLEMSON at BOSTON COLLEGE...
Dabo 5-2 as visiting chalk since 2012. BC 11-5 vs. spread as host since 2012 (2-2 TY).

BC, based on extended trends.


KANSAS STATE at OKLAHOMA...
Visiting team has covered all four meetings since Bill Snyder returned to K-State sideline in 2009. Snyder 10-1 as visiting dog since 2010.

K-State, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...
NMSU has covered last four meetings. Vandals 2-10 vs. spread last 12 at Kibbie (0-2 TY).

NMSU. based on series and team trends.


GEORGIA STATE at SOUTH ALABAMA...
Road team 5-0 vs. line in USA games this season. Though Jags 11-5 vs. line last 16 overall since early 2013. GSU 11-2 last 13 as DD dog.

Slight to GSU, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...
Owls 5-1 vs. line last six at Boca Raton. WKU just 3-6 vs. spread last nine away.

Slight to FAU, based on team trends.


UTAH STATE at COLORADO STATE...
CSU on 18-5 spread uptick since late 2012, though did lose 13-0 and no cover at USU last November. Rams 9-2 last 11 vs. spread at Fort Collins.

CSU, based on team trends.


TENNESSEE at OLE MISS...
Butch 2-4 as road dog since LY (1-1 TY), just 4-7 overall vs. line last 11 since mid 2013. Hugh Freeze 6-0 SU and vs. line TY, now 32-11 vs. spread since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss.

Ole Miss, based on Hugh Freeze marks.


IOWA STATE at TEXAS...
Texas 12-22 vs. spread at Austin since 2009 (1-2 TY). ISU 10-7-1 as road dog since 2011.

ISU, based on team trends.


MISSOURI at FLORIDA...
Muschamp no covers last 2 vs. Mizzou and 6-16-1 overall vs. spread last 23 on board. Pinkel seven straight covers away from home!

Mizzou, based on team trends.


KANSAS at TEXAS TECH...
Red Raiders 2-9 vs. line last 11 reg.-season vs. spread. Also 1-5 last six as Lubbock chalk for Kingsbury. KU 2-0 vs. line for Bowen!

KU, based on Texas Tech spread woes.


OKLAHOMA STATE at TCU...
Gundy 5-2 as dog since 2011. Pokes have also won and covered last two years vs. TCU. But Frogs hopping in 2014 at 4-0 SU and vs. line, far cry from 8-16-1 spread mark previous two years.

Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


TULANE at UCF...
Wave 0-3 vs. points away TY. UCF 18-9 last 27 as home chalk.

UCF, based on team trends.


NEBRASKA at NORTHWESTERN...
Pat Fitz now 2-1 vs. line last 3 after 1-12 spread run...
which was preceded by 13-1 spread run! Heartbreak Hail Mary loss for Cats vs. Huskers LY. Fitz has covered all three vs. Bo Pelini since 2011. Pelini 5-1 vs. line TY after late backdoor at MSU, and 6-1 vs. line away from Lincoln since LY.

Northwestern, based on series trends.


KENTUCKY at LSU...
Cats 5-1 SU and vs. line for Stoops as they close in on bowl. UK 6-1 last 7 vs. line since late LY.

UK, based on team trends.


NOTRE DAME at FLORIDA STATE...
Golson 10-5-1 vs. line his last 16 reg.-season games. Brian Kelly 8-6 as dog with Irish. Jimbo 1-6 last 7 vs. line since late LY.

Notre Dame, based on tam trends.


HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...
Home team 6-0 vs. line in Hawaii games TY (Chow 0-2 away). Aztecs have won and covered last two years vs. UH but took OT LY.

Slight to SDSU, based on series and team trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF Line Watch: Bettors should jump on Tennessee now
By STEVE MERRIL

Each week during the college football season, Steve Merril looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Tennessee Volunteers (+17) at Mississippi Rebels

Mississippi opened as 17-point favorites over Tennessee, and some books are already down to 16.5 on this game. I expect this line to drop throughout the week, especially since Mississippi is off back-to-back big wins.

Tennessee is one of the most improved teams in the country, and the Vols are still flying well under the radar. They’ve been competitive against a brutal schedule, and even though Mississippi is one of the best teams in the nation, bettors should play this game now and take the best of the number.


Spread to wait on

West Virginia Mountaineers (+8.5) vs. Baylor Bears

This line came out with Baylor as a 9.5-point road favorite at West Virginia, and early money quickly came in on the underdog, dropping the favorite down to -7.5. Subsequent money has come in on Baylor pushing the line back up to 8.5 at most sportsbooks.

Baylor is a high-scoring public team, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see this line go up higher closer to kick off. The Bears are off a big comeback home win over TCU, and this is a tough spot on the road at a much-improved West Virginia team. Wait and take the Mountaineers at a better line closer to Saturday.


Total to watch

UCLA at California

UCLA and California have payed little defense this season. The Bruins have allowed 27, 30, and 42 points in their three conference games. The Golden Bears have allowed 49, 56, 59, and 31 points in their four conference games. Combined, the UCLA and California defenses are allowing 42 points per game in conference play.

Both teams also possess potent offenses. Overall, UCLA is averaging 35 points per game while California is averaging 42.8 points per game. The Bruins and Golden Bears are both coming in off losses while playing lackluster offense, so this game provides both teams the perfect opportunity to explode and score a bunch of points. If this total comes out lower than 70, the value will be on the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mid-Major Money: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to beware: Appalachian State Mountaineers (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)

This week: +7 at Troy

A few weeks ago, head coach Scott Satterfield started picking up the pace right away in practices and jumping straight into game situations. His hope was to end a trend of slow starts. It has not worked. Appalachian State fell behind South Alabama 20-0 midway through the second quarter of a blowout loss Oct. 4 and it trailed Liberty 14-7 after one quarter last weekend en route to a 55-48 overtime heartbreaker.

Troy, on the other hand, appears to be playing inspired football in the wake of head coach Larry Blakeney’s announcement last Monday that he will retire at the end of this season. The Trojans responded by winning their first game of 2014, 41-24 over New Mexico State.

App State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games and 0-4 ATS in its last four overall. Troy is 4-0 ATS in its last four against the Sun Belt.


Total team: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (4-3 SU, 5-1-1 O/U)

This week: vs. UAB

Middle Tennessee has made 32 trips to the red zone this season and has scored on 29 of those occasions—including 21 touchdowns. That’s part of the reason why the over is 6-1 ATS in the Blue Raiders’ last seven home games.

UAB’s defense is made to go over the total. It gives up plenty of points (an average of 31.3 in its last three outings), but it has also been known to make the big play. The unit scored a whopping three touchdowns in last weekend’s win over North Texas, two on interceptions and one after a fumble recovery.

The over is 7-0 in the Blazers’ last seven Conference USA games and 5-0 in their last five on the road.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ACC Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams

The Atlantic Coast Conference has a pretty exciting slate of games on tap for this weekend. It all kicks off with Thursday night action, and an important game for Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech. Both teams can ill-afford a second conference loss, especially the Panthers. The Clemson-Boston College game will also be intriguing for various reasons, and the Georgia Tech-North Carolina game should be exciting if you enjoy offense. The weekend wraps up with a marquee national game, as heavyweights Notre Dame and Florida State try to knock each other out of the playoff picture.

2014 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-2 1-1 4-2 2-3-1
Clemson 4-2 3-1 4-2 3-3
Duke 5-1 1-1 3-2-1 1-4
Florida State 6-0 4-0 1-5 3-3
Georgia Tech 5-1 2-1 3-3 3-3
Louisville 5-2 3-2 5-2 1-6
Miami (Fla.) 4-3 1-2 3-4 3-4
North Carolina 2-4 0-3 1-5 2-3
North Carolina State 4-3 0-3 3-4 3-4
Pittsburgh 3-3 1-1 2-3-1 2-3-1
Syracuse 2-4 0-2 2-4 2-3-1
Virginia 4-2 2-0 5-0-1 3-3
Virginia Tech 4-2 1-1 3-3 2-3
Wake Forest 2-4 0-2 3-3 1-5


Syracuse at Wake Forest (ESPN3, 12:00 p.m. ET)
If you're a fan of offense, you probably won't want to tune into this game. The under is 3-1-1 in the past five games for Syracuse, and the under is 20-6 in the past 26 for Wake Forest. In addition, the under is 21-8 for the Demon Deacons in their past 29 ACC contests, and 7-1 in their past eight home games. The Syracuse offense, which wasn't that great to start, has been in a bit of disarray with QB Terrel Hunt (leg) going down to a fractured leg. They have scored 20 or fewer points in four straight games (all losses), and they're just 1-3 ATS during that span. Wake hasn't been much better, winning just once in the past four, but they are 3-1 ATS during the stretch.

Virginia at Duke (ESPN3, 12:30 p.m.)
I am personally looking forward to this game, mainly because I'll be in attendance. The Cavaliers hit the road for just the second time this season, and first time since Sept. 20, a loss at Brigham Young. UVA have been cover kings this season, going 5-0-1 ATS officially, and 6-0 ATS at certain shops. Meanwhile, just when you thought Duke was about to revert back to its 'old' form, they end a 10-year losing streak against Georgia Tech on the road last week. Following a setback in Miami, the Blue Devils were in a tough spot, but they came away with a 31-25 road win against the Ramblin' Wreck to keep themselves very much front and center in the Coastal Division. Duke is 3-1 ATS over the past four games, and the under has the same 3-1 record over the stretch. UVA is 3-0-1 ATS over the past four ACC games, and 5-0-1 ATS in the past six against a team with a winning record, while going 5-2 ATS in the past seven road contests. However, in the month of October, UVA is just 1-5-2 ATS in the past eight. Duke is 7-1 ATS in the past eight against winning teams, and 16-4-1 ATS in the past 21 in October. They're also 11-3-1 ATS in the past 15 overall, and 15-5-1 ATS in the past 21 at home.

North Carolina State at Louisville (ESPN3, 3:30 p.m.)
Things have gone south in a hurry in Raleigh. After a 4-0 start, and a close loss against then top-ranked Florida State, the Wolfpack laid an egg at Clemson, and then were routed in a soggy game at home against Boston College last week. N.C. State is 3-9 ATS in the past 12, 1-6 ATS in the past seven conference games, and 2-6 ATS in the past eight agaisnt winning teams. Louisville is 4-0 ATS in the past four against a team with a winning mark, and 7-2 ATS in the past nine overall. They're also 16-5 ATS in their past 21 games stretching back to the AAC/Big East. The Cardinals are favored by two touchdowns in this game, and Louisville is 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite or more this season.

Clemson at Boston College (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m.)
The Clemson offense had been on a roll since QB Deshaun Watson (finger) took the reins, but he suffered a small broken bone in his throwing hand last week against Louisville. He needed surgery to have four screws put into his finger, and he will be sidelined up to a month. The team turns back to senior QB Cole Stoudt to run things. In three games Stoudt has finished, the Tigers are just 1-2 ATS. BC was impressive in a 30-14 win at N.C. State last weekend, and they're now 7-3 ATS in their past 10 conference tilts, and 7-3 ATS in the past 10 against teams with a winning record. Keep in mind that BC is also 10-4 ATS in their past 14 home games, including 5-0 ATS in their past five at home gainst a team with a winning road record. The Eagles are a five-point dog at home Saturday, but it looks like a nearly 60-40 split backing Clemson.

Georgia Tech at North Carolina (ESPNU, 7:00 p.m.)
Georgia Tech looks to get back on track after its first setback of the season, and what better team to face than UNC and its leaky defense. Opponents have hung 50 or more points on the Tar Heels in three of the past four games, and they have given up at least 27 points in all six games this season. While UNC has dropped four in a row, the offense did come alive for 43 points at Notre Dame last weekend for their first cover in six tries this season. Georgia Tech has scored at least 25 points in all six games this year, although the under has cashed in three consecutive games.

Notre Dame at Florida State (ABC, 8:00 p.m.)
The game everyone is looking forward to this weekend will be in Tallahassee, when the Irish and Seminoles renew acquaintances. Notre Dame might have been looking ahead last week, as they barely dispatched a poor UNC team, 50-43. Meanwhile, FSU hit the road for Syracuse, and won by 18. However, they failed to cover for the fifth time in six games. They're just 1-4 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite, and they're just 1-2 ATS in three home games overall. The Irish are 5-0 ATS in their past five against a team with a winning home record, and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five following up an ATS loss. The 'Noles have managed a 1-6 ATS mark in their past seven overall, but they are 5-2 ATS in their past seven against a team with a winning record.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Pac-12 Report - Week 8
By Joe Williams

The Pac-12 had much better results after a black eye two weeks ago, as Oregon, Stanford and USC each returned to the winner's circle. Washington has also come out of nowhere and is front and center in the Pac-12 race, thumping California and dropping them down a few pegs last weekend on their home turf. We'll really get an idea of who the contenders and pretenders are after this weekend's slate of games.

2014 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-4
Arizona State 4-1 2-1 2-3 3-2
California 4-2 2-2 4-2 4-2
Colorado 2-4 0-3 3-3 3-3
Oregon 5-1 2-1 2-4 2-3-1
Oregon State 4-1 1-1 2-3 2-3
Southern California 4-2 3-1 4-2 3-3
Stanford 4-2 2-1 3-3 0-5
UCLA 4-2 1-2 1-5 2-3-1
Utah 4-1 1-1 4-1 2-3
Washington 5-1 1-1 3-3 1-5
Washington State 2-5 1-3 3-4 3-4


UCLA at California (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UCLA hits the road for Berkeley looking to stop a two-game losing streak. Cal crashed back to Earth in a big way last week, getting humbled by Washington by a 31-7 score. The Golden Bears started out 3-0 ATS, but they're just 1-2 ATS over the past three. Conversely, the Bruins have managed just one cover in six tries this season. California is just 4-12 ATS in the past 16 against a team with a winning overall record, and 4-14 ATS in the past 18 conference games. The home team has managed to cover four straight in this series, and the Bruins are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight trips to Berkeley. Currently, UCLA finds itself as a touchdown favorite on the road. The underdog is also 12-5-1 ATS in the past 18 meetings in the series.

Colorado at Southern California (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m.)
The Buffaloes of Colorado might be regretting their decision to join the Pac-12, at least on the football side of things. They haven't been much of a factor, and are again winless in three games to start this season in conference play. However, on a positive note, Colorado has covered three of its past four games. USC has alternated wins and losses over the past four games, and alternated covers, too. At home this season they are 2-1 SU/ATS. Over the past 11 Pac-12 conference games, the Trojans have pulled off covers in eight games, and they're 6-2 ATS in their past eight at the Coliseum.

Washington at Oregon (FOX Sports 1, 8:00 p.m.)
It seems like Washington has come out of nowhere, rolling out to a 5-1 record overall. They face their biggest test at Oregon Saturday in a game which could really re-establish the program as a national contender. The Huskies smashed Cal 31-7 last week on the road, and they have covered each of their two conference games this season while the 'under' has hit in four straight, and five of six this season. Oregon restored order last week at UCLA, winning and covering after their shocking loss to Arizona Oct. 2. The Ducks are still just 3-8 ATS in the past 11, however, and 1-5 ATS in their past six home games. Autzen Stadium has been a house of horrors for U-Dub, however, as the Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their past six trips to Eugene. Overall, Washington is just 1-9-1 ATS in the past 11 against Oregon.
Stanford at Arizona State (ESPN, 10:30 p.m.)
This Pac-12 tilt will be one of the most interesting of the weekend. Neither team can afford a second loss in Pac-12 play, if they wish to remain in the hunt for a berth in the conference title game. Stanford was impressive last time out against Washington State, winning 34-17, barely covering for some, pushing for others. Their defense continues to be suffocating, posting a fifth straight under. In fact, the Cardinal have allowed 17 or fewer points in each of their six games this season. AZ State has gotten solid play from backup QB Mike Bercovici over the past couple of games, as he subs for the injured QB Taylor Kelly. Arizona State has scored 38 or more points in four wins this season. In this series, Stanford is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven in this series. The home team has managed a solid 9-3-1 ATS in the past 13 meetings, while the under is 5-2 in the past seven battles.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Ten Report - Week 8
By ASA

Game of the Week

Michigan State (-13.5) at Indiana – 3:30 p.m. ET

For the second straight week, Michigan State is off another win in which they allowed the inferior opponent to hang around too long. Purdue came back from three touchdowns behind to get the football with a chance to tie or win in the final minute before a pick-six clinched the 45-31 victory for MSU. Sparty had no problem moving the ball against Purdue, notching 532 total yards behind big days by QB Cook (238 pass yds, 3 TD) and RB's Langford & Hill (combined 174 rush yds, 2 TD). It was a bit concerning that the Spartans vaunted defense allowed Purdue to rush for 5.2 YPC and allowed unproven QB Appleby to complete 24-of-37 passes. If Michigan State wants a shot at the Playoff, they'll have to start winning more impressively. The Spartans' 4th ranked scoring offense should have no problem scoring points against this Indiana defense that again ranks at or near the bottom of the B1G in every major statistical category. Last week the Hoosiers allowed a struggling Iowa offense to gain 426 yards and score 45 points in the 16-point Hawkeyes win. Indiana QB Sudfeld separated his shoulder in that loss and will likely miss the remainder of the season. His replacement, Covington, is a true freshman who was recruited to play safety before being moved to the QB position just a few months ago. After replacing Sudfeld last week, Covington completed just 3-of-12 passes for 31 yards with 2 INT. Now he has the seemingly impossible task of going against this 12th ranked MSU defense in his first career start. Indiana will try to get RB Coleman - who leads the FBS in rush yards - going against this MSU run-defense that ranks 5th in rush yards allowed. Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games as an underdog of 10+ points.

Ohio State (-19) vs Rutgers – 3:30 p.m. ET

OSU & Rutgers are both off of a bye week entering this weekend's matchup in Columbus. After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU's J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU's win over Maryland, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer's scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes young group continues to improve and they are off of a game in which they shutdown a solid Maryland offense. They allowed Maryland QB's to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That's a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games. The Scarlet Knights are one of the biggest surprises in the B1G with a 5-1 mark at the midway point. Rutgers is off of a bye week after a nice home win over Michigan in its last game. The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existent (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). Nova has been expected to shoulder the load on offense after star RB Paul James went down with a knee injury and he hasn't disappointed. Nova now has 7 TD and 1 INT in his last two games since James went out after tallying 6 TD & 6 INT through the first four games with James in the lineup. The defense will get its toughest test against OSU, but Rutgers appears to be up to the task to slow down Barrett and this pass offense. After allowing Washington State QB Halliday to have a huge day in the opener (532 pass yds, 5 TD), the Scarlet Knights have allowed just 56% completions with 1 pass TD and 3 INT in the last five games. OSU is just 1-4 ATS in the last five B1G home games as a favorite of 17 points or more. Rutgers is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 road games as an underdog.

Nebraska (-7) at Northwestern – 7:30 PM ET

Nebraska used the bye week to heal a number of players that were ailing after the Huskers' last game loss to Michigan State. Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries after averaging 166 rush YPG through Nebraska's first five contests. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska's defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU's QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska went into its bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. This week they travel to Evanston to take on a Northwestern squad off a dispiriting loss to Minnesota. The Wildcats outgained Minnesota 393-274 and held the Gophers vaunted rushing attack to just 121 yards on 3.1 YPC, but a special teams letdown (100 yd kickoff return for TD) after tying the game at 17-17 allowed Minnesota to escape with a seven-point victory. RB Justin Jackson had a nice day with 106 rush yards, but the overall inexplosive nature of their offense prevented Northwestern from putting more than 17 points on the board despite owning the game in every aspect. Northwestern has covered all three meetings with Nebraska since the Huskers became a member of the B1G. The winning margin in those three games has been 3, 1, and 3 points. Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in the last five following a SU loss and just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 conference games. Nebraska has covered five straight road games and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven conference roadies.

Minnesota (-12.5) vs. Purdue – 12:00 p.m. ET

It wasn't pretty, but the Gophers played sound football against Northwestern and came away with the victory. Offensively the Gophers were outgained 393-274 and the rushing attack was stifled for much of the afternoon (121 yards on 3.1 YPC). QB Leidner was unspectacular but efficient as he completed 10-of-15 passes for 153 yards and rushed for two scores. The defense allowed Northwestern QB Siemian to complete 32 passes, but they went for just 269 yards and 1 TD. They also held the Wildcats' rushing attack to just 124 yards on 3.6 YPC. The defensive unit held when necessary, and Minnesota got a decisive 100-yard kickoff return from Jalen Myrick in the fourth quarter to break the 17-17 tie. Now Minnesota sits at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference with a shot to officially become bowl eligible with a win over Purdue on Saturday. Things appear to be trending upward for the Boilermakers. Purdue has played well over the last three games even though the results don't show up in the standings. Despite being a heavy road 'dog against MSU last week, the Boilers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the 4th before a Spartans INT return for TD put the game away for Sparty. QB Appleby was an efficient 24-of-37 for 211 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT - his 2nd consecutive solid performance since becoming the starter. The Boilers, surprisingly, were able to churn out 129 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against this normally unyielding MSU rush defense. RB Akeem Hunt accounted for 96 rush yards on just 12 carries with 3 TD runs. Despite the loss, the Boilers have to be feeling good about the way they've played of late. Purdue has won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, but the Gophers have won three of the last five, including a 44-28 win in Minnesota in 2012 in the latest meeting. The favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Gophers haven't been a double-digit favorite against a Big Ten team since 2004, and are just 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a 10+ point favorite overall. Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Maryland (-5) vs. Iowa – 12:00 p.m. ET

Maryland had a bye week last week after running into a buzzsaw in its most recent game against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB's Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It'd help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. The good news is that they've had a week off to work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) before hosting Iowa this weekend. Iowa came off of its own bye week to face Indiana last week, and the Hawkyes that took the field looked completely different than the version we saw over the first five weeks of the season. They were exciting and explosive on offense while scoring 45 points - 21 more than they had scored against an FBS program this season - in the 16-point victory over the Hoosiers. QB Jake Rudock looked much improved, throwing for 210 yards and two scores on 19-of-27 passing as Iowa jumped to a 21-0 lead. Playing against Indiana seemed to solve a lot of Iowa's offensive woes, as the rushing attack notched 207 yards - the first time Iowa has exceeded 175 rush yards in a game this season. It was a bit concerning that a normally stout Iowa run-defense allowed Indiana to rush for 316 yards on 8.1 YPC with three long TD runs of 83, 69, and 45 by IU's Tevin Coleman. We'll see if Iowa can carry its strong offensive performance into the next game on the road against Maryland. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight roadies, four of which came as an underdog. The Terps are just 1-5 ATS in the last six home games and 0-7 ATS following a bye week.

Wisconsin - Bye Week

The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. It didn't matter on Saturday as the Badgers romped for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torried pace of 868 rush yds and 12 TD over the past four games. Defensively they allowed Illini backup QB O'Toole to see a few too many passing lanes (12-of-19 for 96 yards and 2 scores) and the rush defense allowed Illinois to rush for its 2nd highest total on the ground this season. Still, this pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. That pass defense will get tested in upcoming games against Maryland and Rutgers.

Penn State - Bye Week

The Nittany Lions lost a second consecutive game last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in PSU's two consecutive losses. The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards - including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC - and 12 first downs. But their defensive prowess will go unnoticed if the offense continues to underperform. Next up the Nittany Lions will host Ohio State as PSU looks to avenge last year's 49-point loss to the Buckeyes.

Michigan - Bye Week

It wasn't a convincing win over Penn State, but it was a win nonetheless, and the Wolverines will take anything they can get nowadays. The Wolves used a solid defensive performance, holding Penn State to 214 yards, 16 first downs, and just 13 points in the five-point victory. The defense will have to continue to play at an elite level because it appears this offense isn't making any strides. The Wolves managed just 256 total yards and 12 first downs. They rushed for just 64 yards on 21 carries (2.1 YPC) while QB Gardner was efficient but inexplosive (16-of-24 for 192 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT). It was a solid win at home that saved Brady Hoke's job for at least one more week, and perhaps this showing can relieve some pressure on Michigan before it travels to East Lansing for the all-important battle of Michigan with the Spartans.

Illinois - Bye Week

Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected, especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 - before the Badgers scored the next 31 points - and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O'Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the "good" things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB's Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is really going to struggle. Their remaining schedule is against five teams with a combined record of 22-8 and they'll likely be heavy underdogs in each of those contests.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Notes - Week 8
By Chris David

Week 7 Recap

Bettors saw their nice share of shootouts in Week 7, especially in the late afternoon games on Saturday. In particular, Baylor outlasted TCU 60-53 and Notre Dame held off North Carolina 50-43 in the midday matchups. According to our numbers, the ‘over’ went 27-25-1 in matchups with FBS schools.

Big Five Report (ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, SEC)

The ‘under’ went 3-1 in the four head-to-head ACC matchups in Week 7 and one school that continues to help this cause is Louisville. The Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 this season and that number could improve this weekend as they meet N.C. State at home. The total opened at 50 ½ and has already seen ‘under’ money. Miami, Fl. and North Carolina played in non-conference games shootouts last week and both of those outcomes resulted in ‘over’ winners.

The Big Ten watched ‘over’ go 3-2 last Saturday and most of the results were clear-cut. Michigan State (5-1) and Ohio State (4-1) are the best ‘over’ clubs while Northwestern (see below) has been an automatic ‘under’ play in the first-half of the season.

There were some close calls for total bettors in the Big 12 last week and few outcomes could’ve easily went the other way. A late touchdown in the Iowa State-Toledo game helped the ‘over’ cash while a game-winning 55-yard field goal in the West Virginia-Texas Tech matchup prevented overtime and a winning ‘under’ ticket.

Despite having three totals listed at 66 or higher last week, the offensive juggernauts of the Pac-12 didn’t deliver as the ‘under’ produced a 4-0 record. Bettors expecting California and Washington State to light up the scoreboard again were disappointed. The pair combined for 117 in Week 6 but just 24 points last weekend. Stanford (5-0) and Washington (5-1) continue to be golden for ‘under’ bettors.

The ‘under’ went 4-2 in the SEC last weekend and the best bet this season has been playing the ‘under’ in Ole Miss games (5-1). The Rebels stifled Texas A&M 35-20 on the road in Week 7 and the combined 55 points never threatened the closing number of 64. This Saturday, Ole Miss hosts Tennessee and this is the lowest total (46.5) that the Rebels have seen this season.

Streaks to Watch

Under 6-0
San Diego State – Aztecs host Hawaii
Northwestern – Wildcats host Nebraska

Under 5-0
Stanford – Cardinal visit Arizona State

Big 12 Shootouts

As mentioned above, the Big 12 caught some extra attention as Baylor and TCU put up the most points in game between a pair of AP top-10 schools since 1936. The Bears have been known to light up the scoreboard but the Horned Frogs exploding was a bit of a surprise.

We asked Totals Expert James Manos to weigh in on the Big 12 and touch on three games for Week 8, two of them including the aforementioned teams.

Baylor at West Virginia (80.5)
“I'm really not surprised to see the number open on the Baylor-West Virginia game where it did. These two teams have played some crazy games the last two seasons (63-70, 73-42) but it's very difficult to post numbers this high and get two-way action. I did make the number slightly higher at 83, and I think you'll see it close nearer to that number than the opener of 78. Baylor averages 87 plays per game on the road and WVU averages 81 plays per game at home so we're expected to see nearly 170 offensive snaps in this contest. With both teams averaging over 6 yards per play this season, that would produce over 1,000 yards of total offense and lead us to a total in the 80's. Some things to note here though, this Baylor defense is better than the two previous editions and the Bears are actually averaging nearly a yard per play less than last season. However, on the flip side, this WVU offense is much better than the last two year's editions and the Mountaineers are averaging nearly a yard per play more than last season. “

Kansas at Texas Tech (58.5)
“I'm surprised at the movement upward in the Kansas game as I see little reason to expect too much of an improvement when changing coaches in the middle of the season. I have the Jayhawks projected for just more than 300+ yards of offense in this game and if this game goes OVER the heavy lifting will have to be done by the Red Raiders. But with Texas Tech off a heart wrenching max effort vs WVU last week how much energy and focus will they have to face the lowly Jayhawks? This number was bet up based solely on the expected pace of the Red Raiders but I worry about their motivation and mental state in an obvious flat spot for them.”

Oklahoma State at TCU (62)
“I think the TCU game from last week was an outlier. That's not the type of game that TCU HC Patterson wants to get involved with but game dynamics and the flow of the game swept up the Horned Frogs and the game became an up-n-down shootout. I wouldn't expect that pace and style to continue this week especially since it didn't result in a win for the Horned Frogs. OSU has played up-tempo but they don't have the dynamic offense of year's past and I would expect the TCU defense to control the pace of this game. With QB Boykin hurting a bit, expect a return to the ground game from TCU, and Patterson has done a very good job of prepping his team for this OSU offense. TCU returns 8 starters to a defense that held OSU to 24 points and 2.7 yards per rush last year.”

Line Moves

VI Totals Expert James Manos analyzes line moves in the totals market for us and breaks them into four categories. I provide some quick thoughts and you can see from the last few weeks that Manos has a solid pulse on the totals market.

Week 8

1) Correct Sharp Movement – Kansas State-Oklahoma Under
This game opened 61 ½ and dropped to 55 as of Friday evening. The Sooners have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their six games but they haven’t faced a defense like Kansas State, which is ranked second in the Big 12 in both yards (315.8) and points allowed (21 PPG).

2) Incorrect Sharp Movement – Michigan State-Indiana Under
The sharps bet the Spartans ‘under’ last week and they watched Michigan State go ‘over’ once again, now 5-1 this season. Question marks surrounding Indiana’s offense, which lost another quarterback to injury.

3) Public Movement – Baylor-West Virginia Over
See Above

4) Market Manipulation – Georgia Tech-North Carolina Over
This line opened 69, dropped to 67 ½ and spiked back up to 70 ½ all over a two-day span. As of Friday, it’s back to 68 ½ points. North Carolina has the worst defense (43.3 PPG) in the ACC but as most of you know, Georgia Tech takes its time running the football. Two years ago in Chapel Hill, G-Tech defeated UNC 68-50 in a wild shootout.

Listed below are all of the Week 8 total moves by 3.5 or more points based on openers as of Friday evening.


Week 8 Moves

Rotation Open Current

Western Michigan at Bowling Green 67.5 71
Georgia at Arkansas 61.5 54.5
Texas A&M at Alabama 58.5 63.5
Clemson at Boston College 51.5 45
Kansas State at Oklahoma 61.5 55
Utah State at Colorado State 51.5 55
Kansas at Texas Tech 54.5 58.5
Nebraska at Northwestern 49.5 54.5
Kentucky at LSU 49.5 53

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's SEC Action
By Brian Edwards

**Missouri at Florida**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Florida (3-2 straight up, 2-3 against the spread) installed as a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 47. Gamblers can take the Tigers on the money line for a +200 return (risk $100 to win $200).

-- UF somehow found a way to lose a 30-27 decision to LSU as a 1.5-point home underdog last week. The Gators led by double digits at halftime, failed to get into the end zone at crunch time despite a first-and-goal situation from two yards out and allowed LSU to convert a 3rd-and-25 play that led to a go-ahead touchdown late in the fourth quarter. LSU won thanks to a generous ruling from the referee (see below in Bonus Nuggets) that preceded a 50-yard game-winning field goal from Colby Delahoussaye with three seconds remaining.

-- With freshman QB Treon Harris out, Jeff Driskel got the starting nod for Florida. The fourth-year junior completed 14-of-25 throws for 183 yards and one touchdown. However, he was intercepted twice, including a pick in the final minute that allowed LSU to get into field-goal range for the winning points. Driskel rushed 21 times for 71 yards and one TD. For the season, he has a 6/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Driskel has two TD passes compared to seven interceptions in the last three games.

-- Missouri (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) took cream-cheese treatment at home last week when Georgia came to town and dealt out a 34-0 clubbing as a three-point road 'chalk.' Missouri's offense generated only 147 yards of total offense and the UGA defense made Maty Mauk look extremely mediocre for the first time in his career. Mauk connected on just 9-of-21 throws for 97 yards and was intercepted four times. For the year, Mauk has a 14/8 TD-INT ratio. His completion percentage has been awful in the last two games (42.9% vs. UGA & 35.3% at South Carolina).

-- UF owns a 7-12 spread record in 19 games as a home favorite during Will Muschamp's four-year tenure.

-- Missouri has been outstanding on the road going back to 2007, compiling a 23-9 ATS record. The Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs. They are 2-0 ATS on the road this year, spanking Toledo as short road 'chalk' and winning outright (21-20) in come-from-behind fashion at South Carolina as 6.5-point road puppies.

-- Muschamp will give Driskel the start again this week, but Harris is expected to play early. If Harris is effective, he will almost certainly become the full-time starter moving forward.

-- The 'over' is 4-1 for Florida, 3-0 in its home games.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four consecutive games for the Tigers to improve to 4-2 overall. Their road games have seen a split for the 'over' and 'under.'

-- When these teams met in Columbia last year, Missouri cruised to a 36-17 win as a three-point home favorite. Mauk threw for 295 yards and one TD and also rushed for a score.

-- Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Kentucky at LSU**

-- As of Friday afternoon, most spots had LSU (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) listed as a 10.5-point 'chalk' with a total of 53. Bettors can back UK to win outright for a +325 return (risk $100 to win $325).

-- Kentucky (5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) has won five of its first six games for the first time since 2007. That was the same year it upset top-ranked and eventual national champion LSU as a 10-point underdog in a game I dubbed as my SEC Upset of the Year at the VegasInsider.com Handicapping Seminar in August of '07.

-- Mark Stoops's squad smashed ULM by a 48-14 count as a 19.5-point home favorite last weekend. UK trailed 14-3 at the end of the first quarter but outscored the WarHawks 45-0 in the final three quarters. Patrick Towles threw for 216 yards and three TDs without an interception. Stanley 'Boom' Williams returned from suspension to rack up 104 rushing yards and one TD on just seven totes. Javess Blue had three receptions for 109 yards and two TDs, including an 83-yard TD catch.

-- Towles has a 10/4 TD-INT ratio and two rushing scores. UK has four RBs who have rushed for at least 172 yards and two TDs. The quartet also has a minimum average yard per carry of 5.2. JoJo Kemp is tops on the team with 297 rushing yards and four TDs. You can expect to see him taking direct snaps out of the Wildcat formation. Nebraska transfer Braylon Heard has 282 rushing yards while averaging 7.4 YPC.

-- As mentioned above, LSU won 30-27 at Florida last week as a 1.5-point road favorite. Freshman RB Leonard Fournette was the catalyst with 140 rushing yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Anthony Jennings completed 10-of-21 passes for 110 yards and one TD. Brandon Harris didn't play after being rendered ineffective at Auburn in his first career start two weeks ago. Jennings wasn't overly impressive, but the zero in the interception column was key at The Swamp.

-- Jennings has a 6/3 TD-INT ratio but he's completing only 50 percent of his passes. Fournette has rushed for a team-high 504 yards and six TDs while averaging 5.4 YPC.

-- LSU is 3-0 ATS as a double-digit favorite this year.

-- UK is 3-2 ATS in five road underdog situations since Stoops took over in 2013.

-- The 'over' is 4-2 overall for Kentucky, 1-0 in its lone road assignment.

-- The 'over' is 4-3 overall for LSU, 2-2 in its home games.

-- The SEC Network will have the telecast at 7:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- As of Friday afternoon, Alabama was favored by 13.5 at most spots for Saturday's home game vs. Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide won a 14-13 decision at Arkansas last week, but it failed to cover the number as a nine-point road favorite. The Aggies got spanked 35-20 by Ole Miss in College Station, and it wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated.

-- South Carolina is a 38-point home favorite vs. Furman. Going back to 2009, the Gamecocks are 2-4 ATS when favored by 31 points or more. This is their richest 'chalk' spot since November of 2011. The Paladins have lost four in a row against FCS competition.

-- Alabama is currently the +260 'chalk' to win the SEC at Sportsbook.ag. The next-shortest odds belong to Mississippi St. (+280), Georgia (+320), Ole Miss (+350) and Auburn (+400). The longshots include Missouri (35/1), Kentucky (40/1), Florida (50/1), LSU (55/1) and South Carolina (65/1).

-- Arkansas is going to clip somebody soon and it might happen Saturday in Little Rock as a 3.5-point underdog. The Razorbacks have covered the spread in five straight outings.

-- I have no problem with the way the end of the Florida-LSU game went down. With the final seconds ticking off, the referee stopped the clock because UF players were wisely making it difficult for LSU's offensive linemen to get up off the ground to get set for a spike to stop the clock. I'm just not sure we've seen it officiated like that before, have we? I'm sure Gary Andersen was perplexed when he saw what happened. In a similar situation in Wisconsin's game at Arizona St. last year, the Badgers were unable to get the clock stopped with a spike play because ASU players weren't allowing Wisconsin's o-linemen to get up. The Badgers were in range for about a 35-yard field goal that would've allowed them to get out of Tempe with a victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

TEXAS A&M AGGIES (5-2) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (5-1)
Line & Total: Alabama -14, Total: 63.5

In a tough SEC matchup, No. 21 Texas A&M travels to Tuscaloosa to take on No. 7 Alabama Saturday.

The Aggies opened the 2014 campaign in impressive fashion, as they were 5-0 SU (3-2 ATS) through their first five games before running into the meat of their schedule. They have lost their past two contests, both against top-three teams in the nation (No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 3 Ole Miss), by an average of 16.0 PPG while turning the ball over six times. Last week they were favorites at home against the Rebels, but despite an impressive 455 yards of offense, they fell 35-20 due to three giveaways and a meager 1.5 YPC on 35 rushing attempts. Alabama was upset when it traveled to Ole Miss a few weeks ago as a four-point favorite, losing by a score of 23-17 and continuing a poor season ATS. Overall the Tide are 1-4-1 ATS after once again failing to cover last week when they barely earned a 14-13 victory as 8.5-point favorites at Arkansas. They have actually lost the turnover battle this year as they have coughed up the pigskin 11 times compared to forcing eight turnovers, and have been held under 4.0 YPC in each of the past two weeks.

This matchup has not failed to live up to the hype in either of the past two seasons, as the road team has come away with a SU victory each time while Texas A&M is 2-0 ATS. Last year, the Crimson Tide were 49-42 victors as eight-point favorites on the road as the teams combined for 62 first downs and a jaw-dropping 1,164 yards of total offense. Bettors should know that Alabama is a meager 22-41 ATS (35%) in home game when coming off one or more consecutive Unders since 1992, while the Aggies are a woeful 1-11 ATS (8%) in road games after gaining 450+ total yards in three consecutive games over the same timeframe. Neither team has any significant injuries to keep an eye on heading into this game.

The Aggies said goodbye to Johnny Manziel this past offseason, but have kept their high-octane passing attack going with 396 YPG through the air (3rd in FBS) while scoring 43.9 PPG (6th in nation). QB Kenny Hill (2,511 pass yards, 23 TD, 7 INT) is to thank for much of the production, as he has thrown for 300+ yards in five of the seven games while passing for at least 365 yards with a total of 10 TD over the past three weeks. His turnovers have been worrisome since facing tougher competition though, as he has all of his seven picks in the past four weeks, including five over the two defeats. The duo of HBs Trey Williams (301 rush yards, 5 TD) and Tra Carson (273 rush yards, 4 TD) mans the backfield, as Carson has tallied double-digit attempts in each of the past two games while not scoring in the past four games. Hill likes to spread the ball around, as six different receivers have 23+ receptions with WR Josh Reynolds (476 rec yards, 8 TD) leading the team in receiving yards and touchdown grabs while averaging 16.4 yards per catch.

One area to be worried about on this team is the defense, as it has allowed 37.0 PPG over the past three weeks and is giving up 397 YPG of total offense to its opponents. The combo of DBs Deshazor Everett (47 tackles, 1 INT) and Howard Matthews (44 tackles, 2.5 TFL) with DL Myles Garrett (33 tackles, 7.5 sacks) should give the team hope for better performances to come.

Alabama is always one of the more balanced offenses in the nation, and this year is no different as it is gaining 288.7 passing YPG (28th in FBS) and 211.3 rushing YPG (30th in nation) while scoring 33.2 PPG. QB Blake Sims (1,480 pass yards, 10 TD, 3 INT) has thrown for more than 250 yards just once on the season, as he has done well keeping the ball out of the defense's hands and also contributes to the rushing attack (154 rush yards, 3 TD). Joining him in the backfield is the impressive tandem of HBs T.J. Yeldon (452 rush yards, 2 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 rush yards, 2 TD) who have each eclipsed the century mark twice this season. WR Amari Cooper has hauled in 54 of the 122 completions on the team (44%) for 768 yards (14.2 avg). But Cooper has failed to crack 100 yards in either of the past two games after averaging 163.8 YPG over the first four. As usual, the Crimson Tide defense has been stout, allowing a mere 15.3 PPG (6th in nation) to their opponents behind the play of DB Landon Collins (46 tackles, 2 INT) and DL Xzavier Dickson (20 tackles, 5 sacks).

OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (5-1) at TCU HORNED FROGS (4-1)
Line & Total: : TCU -10, Total: 62

No. 12 TCU looks to bounce back from a tough loss against Baylor when it hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

The Cowboys are coming into this game off a surprisingly narrow 27-20 victory against 18-point underdog Kansas. The game was tied with seven minutes to go before Tyreek Hill took a kickoff 99 yards to help OSU prevail. As the Cowboys (3-3 ATS) have gotten deeper into the season, head coach Mike Gundy’s teams have shown the ability to play their best football, as Oklahoma State is 12-3 ATS in the second half of the season since 2012. For the Horned Frogs, they will be looking for redemption after last week's 61-58 loss to Baylor, when they blew a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter. But TCU (5-0 ATS) is clicking on offense this season, and that could play a big role in the game, as the team is 8-1 ATS when scoring at least 28 points in the past two seasons.

Last season, the Cowboys defeated the Horned Frogs, 24-10. It was a struggle for both offenses as each school committed four turnovers and nine penalties. The Cowboys were able to rattle QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 188 yards and three interceptions. Boykin has reportedly been bothered by a wrist injury, but he is expected to start in this matchup. Oklahoma State is dealing with a couple new injuries with both CB Ashton Lampkin and OL Zachary Crabtree listed as questionable due to ankle injuries.

Despite the struggles in Lawrence last week, the Cowboys won their fifth straight game since a season-opening loss to Florida State. The Oklahoma State offense has been solid all season, ranking 26th in FBS scoring (37.2 PPG) and 40th in passing (265.7 YPG), but have just 155.0 rushing YPG (80th in nation). Junior QB Daxx Garman (1,361 passing yards, 10 TD and 5 INT) has filled in nicely for J.W. Walsh, who suffered a foot injury in Week 2 and remains out indefinitely. However, for Oklahoma State to be able to compete in this game, Garman will have to improve his accuracy (58% completion rate). On the ground, RB Desmond Roland (96 carries, 391 yards and 7 TD) is the workhorse on the offense. He is a big physical runner that can wear out his opponent late in the fourth quarter. RB Tyreek Hill (38 carries, 196 yards, 5.2 YPG) is one of the fastest players in all of the country. While the Cowboys use him as a decoy a lot of the time, the defense always has to know where he is on the field. WR Brandon Sheperd (18 catches, 299 yards and 2 TD) has shown the ability to make the big play, and he has an 87-yard touchdown on the season.

The Cowboys defense has had its moments this season, ranking 62nd in the country in scoring defense (24.7 PPG). LB Ryan Simmons (44 tackles, 3.5 TFL) is the leading tackler on the team, while LB Seth Jacobs (41 tackles, 3 TFL, 2 INT) will also be needed to contain the Horned Frogs. Sophomore DE Emmanuel Ogbah (27 tackles, 9.5 TFL, 5 sacks) can cause a lot of havoc rushing the quarterback. The Horned Frogs were unable to get the victory last week, but showed how well they can play on offense with 58 points and 485 total yards. TCU now ranks third in the country in scoring (45.8 PPG), 12th in passing (325.2 YPG) and 52nd in rushing (184.8 YPG). QB Trevone Boykin (1,463 pass yards, 305 rush yards, 14 total TD) has taken his game to a completely new level, proving to be one of the most dynamic players in the country. There was a report early in the week that he had surgery on his wrist, but head coach Gary Patterson came out and said that wasn’t true, and he was able to practice this week. Running back B.J. Catalon (59 carries, 268 yards and 6 TD) has shown the ability to run the ball, helping the Horned Frogs have so many passing opportunities. Wide receiver Kolby Listenbee (18 catches, 418 yards and 3 TD) is averaging a very impressive 23.2 YPC, and will force the Cowboys defense to keep a safety over top.

The Horned Frogs allow 23.0 PPG (51st in FBS), but had been known as a terrific defense before last week's debacle where they allowed 61 points and 782 total yards. They entered the game giving up only 54 points in the first four games combined. Linebacker Paul Dawson (55 tackles, 7 TFL, 3 sacks, 2 INT) is one of the best playmakers in the country on defense. He does a terrific job against the run, but can also defend well in pass coverage. S Chris Hackett (37 tackles, 2 PD, 2 INT) is the leader of the secondary, who will be key to helping his unit recover from the dismal performance last week.

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (6-0) at FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (6-0)
Line & Total: Florida State -12.5

Saturday's marquee matchup takes place in Tallahassee when No. 5 Notre Dame visits defending national champion No. 2 Florida State.

The Irish have started their 2014 campaign with six straight SU wins by an average of 17.3 PPG while going 4-2 ATS. In that time they have done well on defense, forcing teams to turn the ball over multiple times in 5-of-6 contests while having their worst performance to date last week against North Carolina. They went into the weekend as large 16.5-point favorites over the Tar Heels at home and actually trailed by a point (36-35) heading into the final quarter before eventually prevailing in a 50-43 victory. The two teams combined for 1,029 yards of total offense while Notre Dame looked sloppy and turned the ball over on three occasions. Florida State also brings a perfect record into this one but has not been as dominant as most would have thought, going 1-5 ATS. The 'Noles have not really faced a team of top caliber yet, with Clemson being the only spread near single digits (-10), and they did not overwhelm Syracuse last week as expected. As 23.5-point favorites on the road, the Seminoles captured a 38-20 victory from the Orange as they totaled 482 yards of offense while forcing three turnovers. Their defense did not do its job though, allowing 412 yards of offense to their opponent with 256 of those yards coming through the air from a team that ranks in the bottom half of FBS in that category.

These programs have faced each other just once in the past decade when they met in the 2011 Citrus Bowl when FSU came away with an 18-14 win despite rushing for a meager 41 yards on 1.4 YPC. Trends show us that the Fighting Irish are a solid 25-7 ATS (78%) in October road games since 1992 while the Seminoles are 21-8 ATS (75%) after failing to cover the spread in four of their past five games over this same timeframe. As far as injuries go, Notre Dame has no significant ones to speak of, while WR Rashad Greene (foot) and HB Karlos Williams (ankle) have both been upgraded to probable for Florida State.

Notre Dame has been able to conquer opposing defense with a balanced offense that has posted 34.5 PPG while gaining 280.5 YPG through the air (34th in FBS) and 163.8 YPG on the ground (69th in nation). QB Everett Golson (1,683 pass yards, 16 TD, 4 INT) started out the season without a turnover in the first three contests, but since has thrown four picks while seeing his completion percentage drop to 51% in the past two games. Still, his overall season has been impressive, as Golson has thrown for 295+ yards in 3-of-6 games while having multiple passing touchdowns in each contest and contributing to the run game with 209 yards (3.6 YPC) and four scores. HB Tarean Folston (263 rush yards, 2 TD) leads the backfield with 60 attempts (4.4 YPC) while being the workhorse last week with 98 yards on 18 attempts (5.4 YPC) with 2 TD.

HBs Greg Bryant (201 rush yards, 2 TD) and Cam McDaniel (181 rush yards, 2 TD) also contribute plenty to the rushing attack with 43+ attempts each. WR William Fuller (504 rec yards, 7 TD) has 16 more receptions (35) than the next closest receiver while grabbing at least six balls in 4-of-6 games and reaching the century mark in two of the past three contests. Through the first five games of the year, the defense for the program allowed a miniscule 12.0 PPG to its opponents, and despite last week's poor performance, still ranks eighth in the nation in scoring defense (17.2 PPG). The duo of LBs Jaylon Smith (49 tackles, 2 sacks) and Joe Schmidt (48 tackles) hope they can get the Irish back on track this week.

Florida State is once again among the elite in passing this season, whipping the pigskin around for 324 YPG (13th in nation) while scoring 39.0 PPG (20th in FBS). QB Jameis Winston (1,605 pass yards, 11 TD, 5 INT) has not looked quite as composed this season amongst a one-game suspension and now allegations that he accepted money for his autograph, but was able to put all of that aside last week against Syracuse as he had his best performance of the year. He was an efficient 30-for-36 (83.3%) with 317 yards (8.8 YPA) and three touchdowns (0 INTs) in the road victory. HB Karlos Williams (353 rush yards, 5 TD) missed last week due to an ankle injury after having double-digit carries in four of the first five games, but is expected to suit up for this tough battle. If he is not able to play, or is still less than 100 percent, expect freshman HB Dalvin Cook (250 rush yards, 3 TD) to take on the starter’s role after an impressive performance (23 attempts, 122 yards, 1 TD) as the lead back last week when he gained 122 yards on 23 carries (5.3 YPC) with a touchdown.

WR Rashad Greene (683 rec yards, 3 TD) is the team’s leader in receptions (44) while getting six or more catches in four of the six games on the year. He has not been the team’s biggest red-zone threat though, as WR Jesus Wilson (262 rec yards, 4 TD) has the most scores through the air while playing in the slot. The Seminoles defense ranks among the nation's top-50 in yards allowed (358.5 YPG) while giving up 20.7 PPG (30th in FBS) behind the leadership of LBs Reggie Northrup (50 tackles, 1 sack), Terrance Smith (49 tackles, 2 TFL) and DB Jalen Ramsey (45 tackles, 1 INT, 5 TFL).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College football Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Week 8

Looking to wager on the elite teams in college football this weekend? Don't have time to handicap every Top 25 matchup? Put your mind at ease and just cheat - with our NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet featuring all of Week 8's biggest games.

(14) Kansas State Wildcats at (11) Oklahoma Sooners (-8)

*Kansas State's rushing defense has been on point this season, allowing only 81.4 yards against and only allowing a total of three rushing touchdowns this season.

*The Sooners will have their first game at home since Sept. 9, marking the first time since 1999 the team has been away from the Palace on the Prairie for more than one month. Oklahoma has won their past 10 home games in a row, while going 5-5 ATS.

(4) Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers (+8)

*Baylor's offense has been on-fire in the first half this season. The Bears are outscoring opponents 104-21 in first quarters and 80-20 in second quarters this season.

*Though West Virginia had a big comeback win last week, coach Dana Holgorsen was not happy with his own performance. "In the first half, I probably got a little bit frustrated, because we weren't getting explosive plays in the run game, but we were averaging five, six yards a carry - which is successful," the fourth year coach said. "I have to be a little bit more patient with that."

(22) Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles (+6.5)

*Though Clemson walked away with a win against Louisville last week, they lost their starting quarterback. Deshaun Watson broke a small bone in his finger that will sideline him for a month. Also, backup QB Cole Stoudt did not practice ahead of the Louisville game and received injections to play.

*Boston College coach Steve Addazio spoke incredibly highly of the Clemson defense this week. ".I'm saying that in my career--predominantly in the SEC--I haven't seen a defense like this since we played Alabama in the [2009] SEC Championship Game. This is the most dominant defense I have seen. Period."

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at (13) Ohio State Buckeyes (-19)

*Rutgers is certainly not downplaying the significance of their matchup with the Buckeyes. “For me, in terms of games I’ve played this is definitely going to be in my top three all time,” senior David Milewski said.

*Urban Meyer has been dominant over coaches the first time he faces them. The 50 year old is 78-15 when facing the opposing coach for the first time.

(6) Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers (+13.5)

*Travel has not been kind to the Spartans offense. In MSU's two road games this season the Spartans are averaging 36 points per game, compared to 50.25 ppg at home.

*Indiana enters what could be their biggest game of the year with question marks at QB. Nate Sudfeld has already been lost to a shoulder injury, but it's being reported that freshman backup Chris Covington won't play either. That would elevate third-string freshman Zander Diamont to the starter role.

(21) Texas A&M Aggies at (7) Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5)

*Over the Aggies two weeks they have averaged 25.5 points and have gone 12 of 35 on third downs compared to averaging 51.2 and going 34 of 63 on third down over their first five.

*After the Crimson Tide amassed 66 yards on 32 carries last week, there was no finger pointing happening. "Personally, I thought I played terrible," RT Austin Shepherd said. "I kind of take responsibility for it. I don't think any of us had a good game. Probably the worst game we've played as a unit just to be straight up."

(10) Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas Razorbacks (+3.5)

*Without Todd Gurley last week, the Bulldogs throttled Mizzou and you can thank the absence of their Heisman candidate back for that. “We had a chip on our shoulder as far as we don't have Todd (Gurley) and everyone thinks that the world is falling apart,” QB Hutson Mason said. “So we took it upon ourselves that we need to show everybody that there are 10 other guys on our offense..."

*If the Razorbacks expect to compete with Georgia they will need to tighten up their rush defense which has allowed 145.8 ypg and 8.4 rushing first downs a game.

(15) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (12) TCU Horned Frogs (-8.5)

*Even thought people want to point out increased blitzes against the Cowboys offense, coach Mike Gundy disagrees. "It looks worse because we don’t block them. It hasn't really been many more, a little bit, but not a lot. They show up a lot and it doesn't look good when you don’t pick it up. The blitz isn’t a real concern for us, just blocking base front is a concern for us because there’s a lot more guys in coverage."

*TCU's surge to the polls this season can be attached to their offensive increase. The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) from last season.

(24) Marshall Thundering Herd at FIU Golden Panthers (+21.5)

*Marshall is the only ranked team from C-USA, but that is not enough for the team. "I’m not satisfied with 25,” WR Tommy Shuler said. “I feel like we’re better than 25." The Herd ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards, points against and points for.

*Though FIU has already greatly improved over last season, the team still needs to develop the right attitude according to coach Ron Turner. ""We've got to learn how to play with that chip, that edge. (If) we get it back, we can be a good football team, win a lot of games. If we don't, we're not," the second year coach said. "We're not good enough just to go out there and play."

Colorado Buffaloes at (25) USC Trojans (-19)

*Trojans may be without starting CB Adoree Jackson after injuring his hip flexor against Arizona. The freshman did not practice on Tuesday and his status remains uncertain for the game.

*The Buffaloes have been dreading within the Pac-12 since they have joined the conference. Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games and are 2-13 in league road games since joining the Pac-12.

Tennessee Volunteers at (3) Ole Miss Rebels (-16.5)

*The Volunteers defense has been keeping them around the past two weeks, allowing opposing offenses a grand total of 192 yards passing (86 ypg). This has vaulted them into the top 20 in the nation in yards allowed and points against.

*Ole Miss has surrendered just 26 points in the first half of games so far this season, including just three in the first quarter.

(19) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Northwestern Wildcats (+7)

*Nebraska should be getting LB David Santos back in the lineup after having the bye week to heal. "I would say [Santos] has a lot of leadership and his knowledge of the game, it makes it a lot easier when you are playing next to someone and communicating and both on the same page," fellow LB Trevor Roach said.

*Despite arguably QB Trevor Siemian having his best game of the season last week, coach Pat Fitzgerald was still not impressed. “We threw the ball obviously not well enough to win the football game."

(5) Notre Dame at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

*Coach Brian Kelly has some concerns about the game Saturday, but it's not really FSU. "Our problems have been self inflicted," the coach said. "So I'm more concerned about our self inflicted wounds than I am what may happen because of the environment."

*The offense for the Seminoles has been getting all the media attention, but the defense has been doing a great job of protecting leads. FSU ranks eighth in the country in red zone defense only allowing points in 65.22 percent of opponents trips within the 20.

Washington Huskies at (9) Oregon Ducks (-21)

*Through six games this season, the Huskies have surrounded only one turnover. If Washington keeps up that pace (.16 TO per game) then they will break the record for fewest turnovers in a season set by Clemson in 1940, Miami (OH) in 1966 and Notre Dame in 2000.

*In recent memory there may be no team that has dominated opponents quite like Oregon. All but eight of the Ducks 52 victories since 2010 have been by more than 14 points.

(20) Stanford Cardinals at (18) Arizona State Sun Devils (+3.5)

*Cardinals coach David Shaw has relished in facing the top teams in the nation. Shaw is 14-6 all time against AP Top 25 ranked teams.

*It is still undetermined in Sun Devils starter Taylor Kelly will be back or if it will be Mike Bercovici again. Kelly " is able to move the down markers in very different ways. Whether it’s with his legs, with the run game or just making great decisions," according to ASU coach Todd Graham. "I believe that (Mike) is just a great extension of him. Obviously, he brings a lot to it with his ability to create a rhythm passing game."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Notre Dame at Florida State

(5) Notre Dame Fighting Irish at (2) Florida State Seminoles (-11.5)

Second-ranked Florida State puts its school-record 22-game winning streak — and perhaps its hopes of repeating as national champion — on the line when it hosts No. 5 Notre Dame on Saturday. The Seminoles have dodged a couple of upset bids in their title defense and face their toughest test yet as they aim for their eighth straight win over a ranked team. The Fighting Irish could vault into the playoff picture with a victory but still have two more road trips scheduled against ranked opponents.

A loss wouldn't necessarily knock the Seminoles out of the four-team playoff picture, but their schedule is relatively weak compared to teams from other power conferences and could hurt them when considering other one-loss teams. "Anytime you play a high-ranked opponent you want to be successful because it gives you tons of credibility," Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher told reporters. "We don't look at it as an end-all game, but it's a very important game." Florida State has won five of seven all-time meetings, but the the Fighting Irish emerged victorious in the only previous clash in Tallahassee in 2002.

TV: 8:23 p.m. ET, ABC. LINE: Florida State -11.5.

LINE HISTORY: The opening the line sat at FSU-12.5, but action on Notre Dame has shifted the line to FSU -11.5.

INJURY REPORT: Notre Dame - N/A FSU - WR Rashad Greene (Prob-Foot), RB Karlos Williams (Ques-Ankle), DT Derrick Mitchell Jr. (Ques-Knee)

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night for football. Temperatures will be near 85°F with no humidity and clear skies.

WHAT CAPPERS SAY: "With Jameis Winston behind center this becomes a showdown of two quarterbacks who have each never lost a regular season start on the college level. Interestingly, defending national champions are only 10-17-2 ATS since 1980 as favorites of less than 14 points a matchup of undefeated teams. The off-field distraction factor can’t help the Seminoles chances today." - Marc Lawrence

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We opened this at FSU -12.5 and moved up to -13.5 with the early action. We've since pulled the game off the board amid the uncertainty surrounding Jameis Winston’s status. If he plays I could see this reaching -16. If he doesn't we have to be careful because bettors hammered Clemson, and won, when he was suspended earlier this season." - John Lester Senior Lines Manager.

ABOUT NOTRE DAME (6-0): The Irish have boasted one of the nation's top defenses for most of the season, but that reputation was dinged in last week's 50-43 win over North Carolina. If it turns into a shootout, Notre Dame's offense is in good hands with quarterback Everett Golson, who has passed for 16 touchdowns and rushed for a team-high four scores. Golson has thrown TD passes to eight different receivers, but his favorite target is Will Fuller, who has grabbed 35 receptions for 504 yards and seven TDs — all team-highs.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (6-0): While the Seminoles have kept along on the field, controversy continues to surround Heisman Trophy quarterback Jameis Winston, whose off-field distractions now include Florida State reportedly investigating whether he accepted payment for signing memorabilia. All is well between the lines for the offense, though, particularly Winston and star wideout Rashad Greene, who became the school's all-time leading receiver with 215 receptions after snagging six passes in a 38-20 win at Syracuse on Saturday and leads the ACC in nearly every receiving category. The defense has allowed opponents to move the ball but has stiffened inside the 20, allowing only 10 touchdowns on 25 red-zone trips.

TRENDS:

*Fighting Irish are 5-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
*Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
*Under is 9-2-1 in Fighting Irish last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
*Under is 4-0 in Seminoles last 4 home games.

CONSENSUS: 68.83 percent are backing the Fighting Irish +11.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Is Texas A&M's offense drying up?
Stephen Campbell

After a blazing hot start, Texas A&M's offense has come back down to earth recently.

In the Aggies' first five games, they averaged 51.2 points and went 34 of 63 on third downs. Over their last two weeks, they've averaged 25.5 points and are just 12 of 35 on third downs.

Kenny Hill and the No. 21 Aggies travel to Tuscaloosa for a date with the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.

Bama is currently 14-point home dogs for the matchup.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arkansas allowing RB's to dominate this season
Stephen Campbell

If Arkansas expects to compete with No. 10 Georgia in Week 8 college football action Saturday, they're going to have to tighten up their rush defense.

The Razorbacks have allowed an average of 145.8 yards per game and 8.4 rushing first downs per game. Even without the talented Todd Gurley, Georgia's running game looked great against Mizzou in their Week 7 34-0 throttling of the Tigers.

The Bulldogs are currently 3.5-point road faves with an Over/Under of 54.5 for the contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

High-flying offense taking TCU to new heights
Stephen Campbell

Texas Christian University's surge to the polls this season in large part due to their much improved offense.

The Horned Frogs boast the nation's most improved power five conference unit (+165.2 ypg) compared to last season. No. 12 TCU hosts No. 15 Oklahoma State Saturday.

TCU is currently 10-point home faves for the matchup. The total presently sits at 62.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Marshall not complacent since breaking Top 25
Stephen Campbell

The Marshall Thundering Herd (No. 24) are the only ranked team from C-USA and broke the Top 25 for the first time this season, but that doesn't mean they're content where they are.

Wideout Tommy Shuler said "I feel like we're better than our ranking. I'm not satisfied with that."

Marshall faces off against Florida International in the Sunshine State Saturday. The Thundering Herd are currently 22.5-point road faves with an O/U of 55.5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Colorado struggling on the road vs. Pac-12 teams
Stephen Campbell

The Colorado Buffaloes have had a hard time on the road against their inter-conference rivals.

Colorado has lost nine straight conference road games versus fellow Pac-12 teams and are 2-13 in road games since joining the conference.

That's a troubling trend for Buffaloes backers, as they'll be away from home once again for a date with No. 25 Southern California Saturday.

The Trojans are currently 21-point home faves with a total of 62 for the matchup.