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Dave Cokin

Bonus Play 167 OKLAHOMA at 168 KANSAS STATE 3:30 PM

Take: OKLAHOMA -4

The dream of a perfect season for Oklahoma football fans got dashed last Saturday as the Sooners were upset by rival Texas. Now it’s up to Bob Stoops to gather his troops and get them ready for a tough challenge this Saturday as they head to the Little Apple for a duel with Kansas State.

No question the loss to Texas had to be disappointing for Oklahoma. But Stoops has one of the all-time great track records when it comes to rebounding, at least in the regular season. The Sooners have won 25 straight regular season games when playing off a loss. That’s a lengthy enough sample to conclude that Stoops is effective when it comes to putting a bad result behind him and getting focused for the next game on the slate.

I actually think the team that could have more trouble getting it back together might be Kansas State. Head coach Bill Snyder has also been solid as a rock in this situation. But the Wildcats are now off back to back games where they’ve coughed up pretty big leads in losses to Oklahoma State and TCU. The Kansas State defense appeared to be completely gassed last week as TCU ran them over late, and the same thing happened the prior week at Stillwater. I don’t see that boding well for them this Saturday, even with the game being played at Manhattan.

As for the matchup itself, Kansas State should be able to have some success on the ground against an Oklahoma defense that really isn’t stopping the run, and that is my one big concern as far as this play is concerned. But that’s offset by just how badly the Kansas State defense has been dominated down the stretch in the last two games.

One of the keys for me in assessing each game is my grading scale. I won’t get into the specifics of how these numbers are put together, but in the end I arrive with an average game score for each FBS team based on the available data, which these days is remarkably extensive. In this game, I have Oklahoma roughly 12 points better than Kansas State. That’s a neutral field number, but even when inputting the home field advantage, there’s a decent edge for the Sooners.

Add in what I feel is a favorable situation here for the road team particularly given the remarkable Stoops streak that I mentioned earlier, and I think this game is very playable. I would certainly not expect a blowout as Snyder is too good a game planner to let that take place. But in the end, I like the Sooners to get out of Manhattan with the win, and the spread is low enough for me to justify making a play on Oklahoma.
 
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Doc’s Sports

#147 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Wyoming Cowboys (Saturday 4 pm ESPN 3)

Wyoming might be the worse FBS team in the country this season and we will continue to fade them when the pointspread is under double digits. Nevada bounced back well with a dominating win against New Mexico last week, a Lobo team that already won in Laramie this year by 10 points. Nevada seems to play better on the road than they do at home and expect that to hold true again today. All six losses by Wyoming this year have come by double digits. Nevada is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 road games. Wyoming is 15-36 ATS (1 push) in their last 52 home games
 
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Teddy Covers

Michigan St +7.5

This is a fascinating game; a contest where the contrasts between Las Vegas and the mainstream college football world are on full display for everyone to see. The pointspread itself has been a major issue in social media discussion this week, with the Wolverines getting bet up as high as -8.5 before some buyback on the Spartans, driving the line back down to the current -7.5 number as I write this on Thursday morning. Of course, Michigan State is ranked at #4 in the Coaches Poll, while Michigan is #14, giving ill-informed TV commentators the right to call it an ‘upset’ if Michigan wins the game – even if the Wolverines don’t cover the spread.

Last week at this time, the ‘lookahead’ line at the Westgate Superbook here in Vegas for Michigan State – Michigan was sitting at pick ‘em. Then Michigan did what they’ve been doing all year – blowing out foes in bad spots. And Michigan State did what they’ve been doing all year – winning the game but not covering the pointspread in a matchup with Rutgers. And that creates some legitimate market bias here – hence the enormous adjustment to the pointspread.

When a team wins and covers one week, they attract the bettors who supported them the previous week, and bring on some new supporters as well. When a team fails to cover the spread, their supporters get burned and many potential new supporters aren’t quite as interested in backing them. Over a one or two week span, this won’t have a major effect on the pointspread. But when it happens over and over, week after week, the books adjust to the market, not to their own power ratings. And that’s exactly what’s happened here.
The Spartans are the ultimate rarity in sports: 6-0 SU, 0-6 ATS. The Wolverines haven’t been perfect ATS, failing to cover in an opening night loss at Utah and in a 28-7 win over UNLV as 32 point favorites. But Michigan has covered the spread while shutting out their opponent in each of the last three weeks, attracting enormous market support. Last week, against previously unbeaten Northwestern, the Wolverines took a TON of sharp money. The game was over early – Michigan returned the opening kickoff for a TD, forced a three-and-out, then scored another TD. At 14-0, five minutes in, the offensively challenged Wildcats were already beat.

The Wolverines absolutely have this game triple circled on their schedule, a statement game for the home team after getting blown out by the Spartans in each of the last two years (29-6 and 35-11). Jim Harbaugh’s squad has dropped seven of the last eight meetings in a series that they had dominated for the previous three decades. Michigan certainly won’t go into this game with the mentality of a favorite; nor will the Wolverines let up if they have the opportunity to run up the score a little bit.

But Michigan State is the clear choice from a betting perspective, even knowing the risks. Why? Three reasons. First and foremost, this pointspread is ridiculous. Sparty is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this year. Now they’re an underdog. Instead of needing a blowout win to cover the spread – something this year’s Michigan State team isn’t very good at – now even a competitive loss will cash a winning spread bet, and the Spartans don’t lose many games!

Second, Michigan State has the better quarterback, catching more than a touchdown. Connor Cook has an NFL future. Jake Rudock is the guy holding down the fort for Harbaugh until he can recruit the next Andrew Luck or Tom Brady to come to Ann Arbor. Rudock has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year. Meanwhile, Connor Cook is in his third year as the starter running the same offense, with a 12-2 TD-INT ratio this year. Advantage: Spartans.

Last, but not least, a good portion of Michigan State’s ATS struggles this year have come in part due to a barrage of key injuries on both sides of the football, most notably on the offensive line and in the secondary. Several of those key pieces are expected back this week, including NFL bound left tackle Jack Conklin and center Jack Allen, shoring up an offensive line that has been a weak link without them. Even if the Wolverines get off the schnied against the Spartans, I’m expecting a competitive ballgame.
 
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Wunderdog

Nevada/ Wyoming Under 53

Wyoming has some vulnerabilities on defense, but unfortunately the Nevada Wolf Pack hasn't had Colin Kaepernick for a few years now, and their offense simply isn't good enough to take advantage of those deficiencies. Nevada does have a slightly better than average defense, but Wyoming's average offense will be hard-pressed to put together too many drives in this one. That should lead to a field-position game that yields a below average number of points in this one. The Cowboys are 0-6 on the season, scoring 17 or less points in four of them. The Nevada offense has topped the 400-yard mark in just one of their six games. Nevada has seen 12 of their last 15 conference game fail to get to the total, while the Cowboys are staying under in 16 of their last 22 off a spread win. Make the play on the UNDER.
 
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MARC LAWRENCE

Texas A&M +4

Edges - Aggies: 5-0 home dogs in Game Six, playing with revenge, are 9-4-1 ATS since 1988. Crimson Tide: 1-6 ATS away versus avenging SEC foes; and 1-6 ATS as SEC favorites. With the Aggies looking to avenge an embarrassing 59-0 loss suffered last year at Alabama, we recommend a 1* play on Texas A&M.
 
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Wake-UNC, BC-Clemson headline ACC's Week 7

A look at things to watch in the Atlantic Coast Conference for Week 7:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

Wake Forest at North Carolina looks to be the best of a soft schedule in which there are no matchups of teams with winning records. The Tar Heels (4-1) have the ACC's best offense and the longest active winning streak among Coastal Division teams, reeling off four straight victories since an opening loss to South Carolina that looks more bizarre with each passing week. Speaking of bizarre, the Demon Deacons (3-3) earned a strange distinction at Boston College: In each of their ACC wins under second-year coach Dave Clawson, they've failed to score a touchdown. Said UNC coach Larry Fedora: ''Being in a close game ... isn't going to scare them.''

BEST MATCHUP:

Boston College's defense vs. Clemson's offense. The Eagles have the nation's best total defense (140.3 ypg) by a wide margin, and are the only team in the country allowing fewer than three yards per play. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney calls the Eagles' D ''the standard in college football.'' They're sure to face a test from a Clemson offense that has gained at least 392 yards in four of five games.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:

There are 10 ACC schools ranked among the nation's top 50 in total defense, led by those Eagles and including four among the top seven. Impressive, but some of the stats for those upper-tier defenses might be a bit skewed: BC played two FCS teams while three of third-ranked North Carolina State's opponents were in the FCS a few years ago (two have since jumped to the top level).

LONG SHOT:

Maybe Virginia Tech can exact some revenge on Miami - or at least cover the spread. The Hokies are six-point road underdogs to a Hurricanes team that came into Lane Stadium last year and beat Tech 30-6 for its worst home loss since 1989. Coach Frank Beamer says those Hurricanes ''came in here and kicked us like we don't get kicked very much.'' The Hokies showed progress in beating North Carolina State last week and hopes to take advantage if Miami slips into yet another post-Florida State tailspin.

PLAYER TO WATCH:

Pittsburgh WR Tyler Boyd leads the league in receptions (33) and is second in yards receiving (82 ypg), one behind Miami's Rashawn Scott. He'll look to find some holes in a Georgia Tech secondary that allowed 336 yards passing last week against Clemson, its fourth straight defeat.
 
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Lengthy injury list becoming a coach's headache in Big Ten

The Big Ten is hurtin' for certain.

Last week, top Iowa defensive lineman Drew Ott tore the ACL in his right knee and is out the rest of the season.

The week before, Big Ten rushing leader Jordan Howard and his Indiana teammate, quarterback Nate Sudfeld, injured ankles and haven't played since.

Three weeks ago, Minnesota all-conference cornerback Briean Boddy-Calhoun went down with an injury to his right knee and is yet to return.

The injury list has been long across the nation, especially so in the Big Ten.

''You look across the landscape of college football, guys are dropping left and right, and it's a lot of different things, it's not one particular thing,'' Purdue coach Darrell Hazell said. ''You are seeing ACLs, concussions, shoulders, ankles, all those things. I don't know if there is a magical formula to keep guys healthy other than you gotta watch the amount of reps that you give them.''

While defending national champion Ohio State has not had any starters miss a game because of injury, Minnesota had eight out in last week's win over Purdue.

''I've never seen anything like it in my 32 years of coaching,'' Gophers coach Jerry Kill said. ''Just one of those years. What do you do? Like I tell our guys, you can't get down. You just coach them. We're going to play with some young players probably, and that's part of it. They'll have to grow up, and we'll be better down the road for it.''

Michigan State has lost three starters on offense and three on defense, and that was after rising star linebacker Ed Davis went out for the season when he hurt a knee in preseason practice.

Michigan's defense was without three starters last week, and its running backs have been dinged up all season.

Nebraska's defense has started 20 different players and has had 19 man-games lost to injury by projected starters or top reserves. Maryland, Rutgers and Purdue also have had a bunch of key defensive players out.

Penn State running backs Saquon Barkley and Akeel Lynch have missed the last two games, a top linebacker was lost in the opener and its secondary has had starters in and out of the lineup.

Ott is the latest in a line of Iowa players who are hurt. The Hawkeyes also could be without a starting receiver, running back and two offensive linemen when they play at Northwestern on Saturday.

Northwestern, bitten hard by the injury bug last year, had cornerback Matthew Harris go out with broken bones in his face after he was hit in the head by a knee last week against Michigan, and receiver Austin Carr is among other Wildcats who have been banged up.

Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald said all but a few of the injuries have occurred in games, so it's not as if the practice regimen has been a cause.

''When you get limited numbers - last year we had close to 40 players out for our last couple weeks - that totally changes the way you can practice,'' Fitzgerald said. ''You can't get reps from a full-speed standpoint. You have to practice smarter and have to try to find a way to get the guys to the race. It's tough to develop a team when you have to practice that way.''

Illinois lost top running back Josh Ferguson to a shoulder injury Oct. 3, and wide receiver Geronimo Allison has gone through concussion protocol tests after getting hit hard last week against Iowa.

Wisconsin tailback Corey Clement had sports hernia surgery a month ago, and the Badgers have played four different starting offensive lines. Center Dan Voltz, who has started 26 games over three seasons, injured an arm last week against Nebraska and is questionable this week for Purdue.

''I don't know how to explain the trend, if that's what it is,'' Badgers coach Paul Chryst said. ''I've been around teams and years here where you see kind of the same injury popping up, and maybe it's something you're doing with the way you're training or practicing. But when it's kind of all over the place, it's a little bit harder to pinpoint.''
 
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Dantonio, Spartans must now deal with resurgent Michigan

EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) From the moment Jim Harbaugh took over as Michigan's coach in December, this scenario was coming: At some point, the Wolverines would become a major threat to Michigan State's recent dominance of their in-state rivalry.

It just wasn't supposed to happen this quickly.

''I think every football team that goes out there, I don't care where they're at, they expect to win,'' Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said. ''The expectations are high at Michigan State, the expectations are high down the road.''

With Michigan beginning to meet expectations again, the pressure is actually on Dantonio and the Spartans. This was supposed to be Michigan State's year - a chance for this perpetually overlooked program to make a run at a national title while Harbaugh began the difficult challenge of restoring Michigan to its place among Big Ten title contenders.

Except the Wolverines have accelerated that process to the tune of three consecutive shutouts, and 12th-ranked Michigan is actually favored by about a touchdown at home against the seventh-ranked Spartans on Saturday.

So the national title talk in East Lansing can wait. This week is about something far more visceral - trying to hold off a resurgent Michigan team that already looks like a potential powerhouse after only half a season under Harbaugh.

''It's kind of crazy in this state,'' Michigan State linebacker Riley Bullough said. ''You literally identify yourself as part of the blue and maize or the green and white. That's your identity, that's your everything.''

It's hard to overstate how much it's meant to the Spartans to have finally taken control of a rivalry that Michigan used to dominate. Michigan State has gleefully won six of the last seven meetings, and Dantonio has built the Spartans into one of the top teams in the country. The Wolverines? They were floundering under Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke.

As expected, Harbaugh's arrival has boosted Michigan, and the obvious question now is whether these two teams will continue trading periods of dominance or if they can both field consistently excellent teams at the same time.

''What are you asking? Can we coexist?'' Dantonio said when this topic came up Tuesday. ''I think both teams can have good football teams, if that's what you're asking. It's been done before, and both teams have gone to big bowls in the past, at the same time, and things of that nature.''

Both programs have reasons to be optimistic about the future, but it would be difficult for the Spartans (6-0) to accept losing to Michigan this year, given everything that's at stake and how overmatched the Wolverines were just a season ago. Michigan State beat Michigan 35-11 last year, and in 2013, the Spartans won while holding the Wolverines to minus-48 yards rushing.

Now it's Michigan (5-1) that has been so impressive of late that its season-opening loss to Utah is easy to forget. The Wolverines have held their last three opponents - Northwestern, Maryland and BYU- scoreless.

''For them to pitch three straight shutouts, that's hard to do in college football, doesn't matter who you are, doesn't matter who you are playing,'' Spartans quarterback Connor Cook said. ''We're looking forward to going into there and playing against a defense like that, because you want to play against the best.''

Motivation is never a problem for Michigan State in this game. Whether it was a dismissive comment by Michigan running back Mike Hart in 2007 or the Wolverines planting a tent stake in the field before last year's matchup, the Spartans are always quick to seize on any perceived slight from their longtime rivals.

''Really doesn't take much to have a chip on our shoulder,'' Cook said. ''Doesn't matter if we're the favorite, if we're the underdog, if we're favored by three touchdowns or we're underestimated by three touchdowns.''

Now the Spartans actually are listed as the underdogs, during a season in which they were expected to keep the Wolverines at arm's length. Michigan State has been beset by injuries on both sides of the ball, and the Spartans have struggled to beat Big Ten afterthoughts like Purdue and Rutgers.

Another win over Michigan would make a lot of those concerns go away. Dantonio needs one victory to reach 100 in his head coaching career at Cincinnati and Michigan State, but right now that milestone is one of the last things on his mind.

''Getting one means something this week,'' he said. ''That's all.''
 
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Big games may clear up Big Ten East race

Two important Big Ten games Saturday will ease the logjam atop the conference's East Division.

Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Michigan State all are 2-0 in league play. By Saturday night, two of those teams will be tied for third place.

Top-ranked Ohio State hosts the Nittany Lions under the lights, and No. 7 Michigan State faces the 12th-ranked Wolverines in Ann Arbor.

It's time for some separation at the top.

''Obviously this weekend clears it up a little bit in terms of who's the front-runner, at least,'' Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio said Tuesday.

Ohio State has been the top dog in the conference for quite a while, but at this point in the season the Buckeyes have some company. Ohio State and Michigan State, at 6-0 overall, are already bowl eligible. Michigan (5-1) and Penn State (5-1) are only a victory away.

Only one of the four can earn a berth in the Big Ten title game, and Saturday's results will help clarify the competition for that prize.

''Two are going to lose, two are going to win,'' Ohio State coach Urban Meyer said. ''The teams that win keep moving forward.''

And what of those that don't?

''The teams that lose, you're not out of it,'' Meyer said. ''I was in the SEC East (as coach of Florida) ... and that was a real rugged conference. This side of our conference right now is every bit of that. You can see it every Saturday.''

For Ohio State and Michigan State, success this season is merely a continuation of last year. Michigan, under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh, is having a bounce-back season after going 5-7 last year and the Nittany Lions have already matched their 2014 win total in the conference.

Michigan always views its in-state game against Michigan State as significant, but Harbaugh isn't ready to label the matchup as pivotal to his team's chances of winning the East.

''The clarity, when the dust clears on Saturday night, I don't know about that,'' he said.

There's a big game Saturday in the West Division, too. Iowa (6-0, 2-0) the only unbeaten team in that half of the league, travels to Northwestern (5-1, 1-1). The Wildcats are coming off a 38-0 loss to Michigan, but Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz isn't sure that's a good thing.

''Historically, when Northwestern has experienced any disappointment - small scale or big scale - they rebound strong,'' Ferentz said. ''That's what good teams and good programs do.''

- Maryland interim coach Mike Locksley is scrutinizing every bit of the program during the bye week that follows head coach Randy Edsall's dismissal on Sunday. ''With the change, things have been a whirlwind,'' Locksley said. "We're using this time to self-evaluate where we are offensively, defensively, special teams.'' Locksley's first game comes on Oct. 24 against Penn State in Baltimore.

- Nebraska, which travels to Minnesota on Saturday, has lost four games by a total of 10 points. Coach Mike Riley said he couldn't remember ever being around a team that's had that so many close defeats in so short a time. But he insisted his players have ''maintained a good ethic about them,'' adding, ''I'm proud of that because it's a mental game for our team right now as far being able to overcome that stuff and get ready to play again.''

- Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald probably wanted to burn the game film of his team's loss to Michigan. Instead, he made his players watch it. ''You teach from the mistakes that we made,'' Fitzgerald said. ''We've got a good football team. We've just got to execute and play better.''
 
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Ohio St dons black unis for Penn St game

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) One of the first questions for Ohio State coach Urban Meyer at his press conference Monday was not about the use of dual quarterbacks in the red zone, or how Braxton Miller is being utilized as a receiver.

It wasn't even a query on the importance of the top-ranked Buckeyes (6-0, 2-0 Big Ten) game against Penn State (5-1, 2-0) on Saturday at Ohio Stadium.

No, what seemingly all Ohio State fans are talking about is the reaction to breaking tradition and wearing all black uniforms for the first time.

Forget scarlet and gray, there's very little of either in the Nike alternative pants, jerseys and black matte helmet that will be worn one-time only vs. the Nittany Lions.

Does Meyer like the look?

''I haven't seen them,'' he said.

Meyer was probably being coy because Nike representatives first approached the university two years ago with the idea of black uniforms. The finished product was unveiled Oct. 3.

''I'm indifferent about it. Very indifferent,'' safety Tyvis Powell said. ''I appreciate the jersey, period. Just being able to put the Ohio State jersey on is good enough for me.''

Others, including Meyer, think otherwise. The special uniform is part of the package to entice recruits and create an electric environment in the ''Horseshoe'' for the first home night game of the season.

''We love night games and obviously the new unis and the crowd,'' Meyer said. ''I just hear our players talk about it.''

Ohio State has worn a special uniform on occasions and last season donned all white for the first time in recent history at Penn State in a break from the usual gray pants.

''It's just a special opportunity to be one of the first teams that switches up Ohio State's traditional jerseys,'' defensive end Sam Hubbard said. ''We have a great responsibility to play well in it.''

In today's world, flashiness matters, although Penn State with its standard issue blue and white uniforms would disagree. But Oregon has made great strides in football in part because its numerous uniform combinations attract the attention of high school athletes.

''We're not going to be Oregon,'' Ohio State director of athletics Gene Smith said. ''We're Ohio State University, and we're going to pick one game every year where we try to do this.''

He knows there's a segment of fans that are upset by the uniforms. Some simply don't like the move away from scarlet and gray while others see them as indistinguishable from what Cincinnati, Louisville, Rutgers or countless highs schools with black and red colors might wear.

''We're blessed here, (that) an institution has such great tradition and history,'' Smith said. ''You have to make sure you respect that. And there are certain things that become untouchable in that regard.

''At the same time, you have to recognize that our demographic is changing. Our world is changing. . Recruits are impressionable today and have a great deal of materialistic interest. So reality is we're going to respond to that.''

Linebacker Raekwon McMillan said Meyer showed him an early design for a black outfit during the recruiting process.

''When he brought in the uniform he was trying to impress me,'' McMillan said.

Defensive end Joey Bosa said the new look is ''sick'' but doesn't think his brother, Nick, a 2016 commit to Ohio State, is swayed by a school's choice in clothing.

''I don't know about other recruits but my brother, that's probably the last thing in the world he's worried about, the color of the uniforms,'' Bosa said. ''He'd go to Oregon if that's what he's worried about.''
 
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No. 2 Baylor gets revenge shot at home vs. West Virginia


Things to watch in Week 7 in the Big 12:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

West Virginia (3-2, 0-2 Big 12) at No. 2 Baylor (5-0, 2-0). The Bears were snubbed from the first College Football Playoff after losing only once in the regular season last year, 41-27 at West Virginia. Baylor's motivation is a bit different than most would expect with the Bears again undefeated in October and facing the Mountaineers. ''Are we going to blame them for beating us? The way we look at it is that it's our fault,'' coach Art Briles said. ''We didn't take care of business.'' Baylor again has the nation's best offense, with 725 total yards and 64.2 points a game. West Virginia, coming off a 33-26 overtime loss to Oklahoma State, allows a Big 12-low 20 points a game and 342 yards.

BEST MATCHUP:

No. 19 Oklahoma (4-1, 1-1) at Kansas State (3-2, 0-2). Sooners coach Bob Stoops worked on Bill Snyder's staff at K-State from 1989-95, and is 5-0 as a head coach when returning there. The Wildcats had won 49 consecutive games when leading at halftime until losing the last two - they blew a 35-17 halftime lead at home last Saturday in a 52-45 loss to TCU. Oklahoma, coming off an unexpected loss to Texas, is averaging 37 points and K-State 36.4. The Sooners have given up 22.6 points a game, the Wildcats 24.8.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:

Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU, the league's three undefeated teams, are a combined 9-0 away from their home stadiums. ... Oklahoma State is 6-0 for the fourth time in 11 seasons under Mike Gundy. The Cowboys had only two 6-0 starts in the 103 seasons before that. ... Texas Tech (4-2, 1-2) is the only Big 12 team to go this far in the season without a weekend off. The Red Raiders' open date comes in Week 12.

LONG SHOT:

No. 3 TCU (6-0, 3-0) needing another late road rally, like at Texas Tech and Kansas State in its Big 12 road games so far. The Horned Frogs are nearly three-TD favorites at Iowa State, and beat the Cyclones 55-3 in the regular season finale last December.

IMPACT PLAYER:

Texas Tech sophomore quarterback Patrick Mahomes, facing winless Kansas and the league's worst pass defense, leads all power-five conference quarterbacks with 377.3 yards passing per game. His 167 completions and 257 attempts are the most in the Big 12, and he has thrown 19 touchdowns with five interceptions. He threw for 428 yards and five TDs last week against Iowa State, both season highs.
 
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MSU-Michigan winner to be top threat to Ohio St. in B10 East

Some things to watch in the Big Ten Conference during Week 7 of the season:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

No. 7 Michigan State (6-0, 2-0) at No. 12 Michigan (5-1, 2-0). The winner of this game gains the inside track to challenging Ohio State for superiority in the East Division. The Spartans have won six of the last seven meetings, but Michigan has come on so strong under first-year coach Jim Harbaugh that the Wolverines actually are favored. Michigan State struggled at Rutgers last week and its defense hasn't been nearly as stout as in years past. Michigan, meanwhile, has posted three straight shutouts and would merit joining the College Football Playoff discussion with a win at the Big House.

BEST MATCHUP:

Northwestern defense vs. Iowa offense. The Wildcats (5-1, 1-1) are smarting after losing 38-0 at Michigan. Their defense still is allowing just 12.2 points and 269.5 yards a game and has a chance to atone at home. The Hawkeyes (6-0, 2-0) have shown great balance while generating 31.7 points and 409.3 yards a game. They probably will be without four offensive starters, and QB C.J. Beathard is banged up but said he'll play.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:

Wisconsin (4-2, 1-1) will be going for a 10th straight win against Purdue (1-5, 0-2). That would extend the longest win streak by either team in the 83-game series. The Badgers' average winning margin over the last nine meetings is 23.4 points. Wisconsin has outscored the Boilermakers 140-27 in the last three games in Madison. ... WR Leonte Carroo of Rutgers (2-3, 0-2) goes into the game at Indiana (4-2, 0-2) with six touchdowns in 10 quarters played. He's averaging a TD every 3.88 receptions in his career.

LONG SHOT:

Penn State (5-1, 2-0), which pushed Ohio State to two overtimes before losing 31-24 in Happy Valley last year, has an opportunity to put its program back on the national radar. No one has been impressed with any of Penn State's wins to date, and the Lions go to the Horseshoe as 17-point underdogs. Ohio State (6-0, 2-0) still is looking for that breakout game, and you can be sure Joey Bosa and the rest of the Buckeyes' front seven will be coming hard after Christian Hackenberg.

PLAYER TO WATCH:

Minnesota QB Mitch Leidner is going to be asked to pass, maybe a lot, against Nebraska (2-4, 0-2). It makes sense. The Cornhuskers have the nation's worst pass defense and last week Wisconsin did the unthinkable for its program by throwing 50 times in Lincoln. The Gophers (4-2, 1-1) have run on 57 percent of their plays, and Leidner is 11th in Big Ten passer rating. If he's even decent against the Huskers, that just might be good enough for Minnesota.
 
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Alabama-Texas A&M; Florida-LSU meet in Top 25 SEC showdowns

Here are some things to watch in week seven of the Southeastern Conference:

GAME OF THE WEEK:

No. 10 Alabama at No. 9 Texas A&M. Alabama has appeared to right itself after a surprising home loss to Ole Miss on Sept. 19. Since then, Alabama has three straight convincing victories against Louisiana-Monroe, Georgia and Arkansas. Texas A&M - one of three remaining undefeated teams in the league - was pounded by Alabama 59-0 last season, but gets the Tide in College Station this time.

MATCHUP OF THE WEEK:

LSU running back Leonard Fournette vs. Florida run defense: Fournette has rushed for 1,022 yards to lead the nation and is averaging 204.4 yards rushing per game. He's the quickest player to reach 1,000 yards rushing in SEC history. Fournette faces his toughest test of the season Saturday against No. 8 Florida, which ranks 12th nationally in run defense and allows only 3.05 yards per carry.

NUMBERS GAME:

South Carolina's Steve Spurrier stepped down with 131 career wins in SEC competition (including five SEC championship game victories) to rank behind only Paul ''Bear'' Bryant's 159 SEC wins. ... Saturday will mark the 61st time No. 13 Ole Miss has faced Memphis. Ole Miss has played Memphis more often than any other school that isn't a current or former member of the SEC. ... Florida is 6-0. Each of the five previous times Florida has started 6-0 since 1995, the Gators have gone on to win at least 11 games.

UPSET WATCH:

There are a few intriguing matchups this weekend: South Carolina is a three-point favorite at home against Vanderbilt, but it's hard to know how the Gamecocks will respond to Spurrier's retirement. Ole Miss is a 10 1/2-point favorite on the road against Memphis even though the Tigers have won 12 straight games dating back to last season and are among the nation's leaders in scoring.

PLAYER TO WATCH:

Florida QB Treon Harris: Florida has been the SEC's biggest surprise this season, but the Gators had played their best football since Will Grier had taken over as the starting quarterback. Now that Grier has been suspended for violating the NCAA's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Gators are relying on Harris to direct the offense. Harris started six games as a freshman last year and started Florida's season opener this year, but he hasn't thrown a pass since a Sept. 12 victory over East Carolina.
 
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Kelly tells No. 14 Irish not to expect USC to be in disarray

SOUTH BEND, Ind. (AP) Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told his players not to expect a team in disarray when the 14th-ranked Fighting Irish face rival Southern California playing under interim coach Clay Helton on Saturday.

''Teams come together under those circumstances and they're going to play their very best,'' Kelly said Tuesday. ''It's a rivalry game for them as well. It's a chance for them to respond. You look at the way Texas responded this past weekend with a lot of media scrutiny. I expect USC to respond the same way.''

The firing of coach Steve Sarkisian on Monday means the Trojans enter the game with their fourth coach in four seasons. Lane Kiffin was coach in 2012 when the top-ranked Irish won 22-13. Notre Dame beat USC and interim-coach Ed Orgeron 14-10 in the second game after Kiffin was fired in 2013. Sarkisian guided the Trojans to a 49-14 victory last season.

A week ago, both teams were ranked and the game looked as though it would be a resume-building victory for the winner trying to make a case for a College Football Playoffs berth.

USC's 17-12 loss to Washington on Thursday in a game where the Trojans were favored by more than two touchdowns ended that. It will now be the ninth straight year the game won't pit two ranked teams.

That's quite a change from when the rivalry's heyday in the `60s and `70s when the winner won six AP national titles, with Notre Dame winning in 1966, '73 and '74. The Trojans won in 1962, '67 and `72. USC won two more titles in voting by the coaches in 1974 and 1978.

Still, Kelly believes a win over the unranked Trojans (3-2) would provide a boost for the Irish (5-1).

''I still think when you talk about beating USC it still carries a lot of weight because people know the talent they have on that football team,'' he said.

The Trojans embarrassed the Irish last season when Cody Kessler threw for six touchdown passes in a 49-14 victory. Kelly last year called the loss a red letter day for Notre Dame, saying ''We got our butts beat and it wasn't as close as the score.''

Kelly said Tuesday it's not something he will bring up this week because the Irish players know ''that standard of play is not acceptable.''

Kelly, who has never faced a ranked USC team as Notre Dame coach, said the game is just as important as always for those involved.

''There's a special feeling playing USC. I know that that still resonates with our players and coaches,'' he said. ''Look, whether it's a rivalry that goes back with implications to the national championship or not, for us in the short term, we got beat up pretty good against them last year. For our football team, we certainly want to show ourselves a lot better than we did last year.''
 
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Big Ten Report - Week 7


Iowa (6-0) at Northwestern (5-1) - ESPN2/ABC, 12:00 p.m.
Current Line: Hawkeyes (-2)
Opening Line: Hawkeyes (Pick-em)

This was an interesting opening line and an even more intriguing initial line move. We thought NW would come out as a small favorite here despite their poor performance last week. The line was released at pick-em and the first move pushed it all the way to Iowa -3 which in our opinion is a ridiculous line. Let’s not forget just two weeks ago, Iowa was +7 at Wisconsin, a team we have rated just barely above Northwestern. It has come back some and we expect it to push closer to even by the end of the week. Iowa is banged up coming out of their 29-20 home win vs Illinois last week. Both starting offensive tackles are injured and not on the depth chart for this week’s game. On top of that, the Hawks #1 defensive lineman Drew Ott was injured last week and is out for the year. NW starting CB Harris will be out this week but that’s about it for the Cats.

Northwestern was dominated by Michigan last week but the score was still a bit deceiving as the Wolves returned the opening kick for a TD and had a pick-six. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has already stated this week that his team will (or at least should) have some extra motivation this week because of last week’s poor performance + Iowa beat them 48-7 last year + the Hawks are in 1st place in the Big Ten West. The Hawks ran the ball very well last week putting up 278 yards on the ground vs the Illini. They’ll need another good effort on the ground as QB Beathard has completed only 46% of his passes with just 2 TD’s in his first 2 Big Ten games. The host has won 5 straight in this series both SU & ATS.

Purdue (1-5) at Wisconsin (3-2) - BTN, 12:00 p.m.
Current Line: Badgers (-24)
Opening Line: Badgers (-20)

Another weird line move in our opinion. This line opened -20 and was pushed to -24 in favor of the Badgers. We expect that was set up to take the higher number later in the week and it will come down. Purdue was just +22 at Michigan State a few weeks ago (and almost won) and MSU, who is over rated by most, is still rated higher than Wisky on our board and everyone else’s. Minnesota, who is rated very close to Wisconsin in our ratings, was laying 3.5 points at Purdue last week so again we’re surprised by this current number. Wisconsin is off a huge, must win game at Nebraska kicking a FG at the horn to win 23-21. They have to have some type of a letdown playing a 1-5 Purdue team. The Boilers could have a better record as they’ve had a number of close calls that could have gone either way (Michigan State, Marshall, and Bowling Green). Last week’s 41-13 loss vs Minnesota was a bit deceiving. It was a 10-6 game in the 2nd half. The Gophs had a pick-six and while 400 total yards of offense was good for Minnesota, that normally doesn’t equate to 41 points.

Injury-wise, the Boilermakers are a bit banged up and LB and Wisconsin might be without starting center Voltz and starting RB Deal. Because if their injuries at RB and a green OL, the Badgers are only averaging 164 YPG rushing (66th nationally) after averaging 331 YPG on the ground last year (4th in the nation). Same with scoring as the Badgers average 26 PPG this season (68th nationally) after putting up 34 PPG last year (26th in the country). Defensively, Wisconsin has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s since their season opener with Alabama. This series has been dominated by Wisconsin covering 9 in a row. Since 1980, there has been only one time that a team in this series has been favored by more than this current number of -24.

Nebraska (2-4) at Minnesota (4-2) - ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: Gophers (-2)
Opening Line: (Pick-em)

Poor Nebraska. Last week’s 23-21 loss at home to Wisconsin was basically the 4th time this year they’ve lost on the last play of the game – give or take a few seconds on a few of those losses. They have to be taxed mentally after that stretch. Now there are some rumblings that a few seniors on the team are still very loyal to former coach Bo Pelini and that might be causing some problems. A few of those players have been tweeting out “pro” Pelini stuff over the last few weeks which can be a distraction. The good this is, Nebraska has been very competitive. Their 4 last second losses have come against very good competition for the most part (Wisconsin, BYU, Miami FL, and Illinois). Despite their 2-4 record they are +6 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season. It will be very interesting to see how they respond this weekend at Minnesota. The Gophs looked as though their offense finally “broke out” last weekend at Purdue scoring 41 points. However, they did so on “just” 400 yards which is a nice output but doesn’t normally lead to that many points on the scoreboard. The Gophs passing game is very sketchy. They put up 41 points last week despite throwing for only 82 yards. Teams have been able to exploit Nebraska’s pass defense which ranks 127th (out of 128) nationally but we’re not sure Minnesota can take advantage of that.

Before last week’s big win at Purdue, the Gophers previous 3 wins came by a combined 9 points over Ohio, Kent, and Colorado State. Injury-wise Minnesota hopes to get 2 senior DB starters back on the field (Travis & Boddy-Calhoun) after missing time. Nebraska got a little healthier on the DL where they were really hurting as Valentine returned. After getting destroyed in the first 2 games of this Big Ten series losing 41-14 in 2011 & 38-14 in 2012, Minnesota has bounced back and won each of the last 2 years. Last year the Gophs won 28-24 in Lincoln and in 2013 they won 34-23 here in Minneapolis. This game really depends on how Nebraska reacts to their tough losses this year. We know Minnesota will show up but will Nebraska? We’ll see.

Michigan State (6-0) at Michigan (5-1) - ESPN, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: Wolverines (-8)
Opening Line: Wolverines (-6)

This advanced line was available just a few weeks ago at pick-em. Now Michigan is -8 as of Wednesday A.M. That is a massive difference in the span of just a few weeks. Is it warranted? Possibly. MSU continues to be vastly over rated in our eyes. While they are 6-0 SU they are one of just two teams in the nation along with UCF that are 0-6 ATS. Sparty has played two of the Big Ten’s worst thus far and neither were great outings as they topped Purdue by a field goal and beat Rutgers last week by a TD. MSU is just +25 YPG despite their 6-0 record. Compare that to Michigan who is +210 YPG on the season and you can see why this line has been adjusted to where it is. The Spartans defense was talked about as being great entering the season yet they stand at “just” 47th nationally allowing 347 YPG.

Meanwhile, Michigan has pitched 3 consecutive shutouts and they rank #1 in the nation allowing only 181 YPG. Michigan’s defense has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s in 6 games this year. We know Harbaugh has really stressed winning this match up. This game and obviously Ohio State where the two games he really put a huge emphasis one prior to and during this season. MSU has rolled recently in this series winning 6 of the last 7 meetings (MSU has won 7 straight ATS) with Michigan’s only win during that stretch coming at home in 2012 by just 2 points. Last year, Michigan had just 186 total yards (MSU had 446 yards) in their 35-11 loss in East Lansing.

Rutgers (2-3) at Indiana (4-2) - BTN, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: (N/A)
Opening Line: (N/A)

Still no line on this game as of early Wednesday. Indiana has two very important offensive players questionable here as starting QB Sudfeld and RB Howard both sat out last week’s loss at Penn State. Not only that back up QB Diamont has a shoulder issue and might not play. If the two top QB’s aren’t ready by Saturday, the Hoosiers will look to freshman Danny Cameron under center. Cameron picked up his first action of the season last week going 6 of 16 for 65 yards and an interception vs PSU. IU’s defense continues to be shredded on a weekly basis. They allowed a poor PSU offense to rack up 420 yards (100 yards over their average) and 29 points last week. It was the Nits 2nd highest scoring output of the season. With key players out, the Hoosiers were bad on offense scoring just 7 points on a paltry 3.5 YPP. The IU offense has been held to single digits twice since the start of last year, both vs Penn State.

Rutgers gave MSU a tough battle before falling at home 31-24 last week. Sparty scored a TD with just 43 seconds left to get the win. Two key Rutgers components returned last week – one was head coach Kyle Flood who was back for suspension and the other was WR Carroo who was reinstated to the team when assault charges against him were dropped last week. Carroo had an immediate impact with 134 yards receiving and 3 TD’s. While IU has a winning record and Rutgers a losing, the stats tell us differently. Through 6 games Indiana is actually -34 YPG and -1.0 YPP. Rutgers is +8 YPG and dead even on a YPP basis. This is obviously a game to stay away from for now with too many unknowns on the injury front.

Penn State (5-1) at Ohio State (6-0) - ABC, 8:00 p.m.
Current Line: Buckeyes (-17)
Opening Line: Buckeyes (-17.5)

The Buckeyes continue to underachieve having not covered a game since their opener vs Virginia Tech. They are -55 points overall this year when it comes to their spread numbers. Yet they have still outgained every opponent by at least 113 yards this year. They have outgained their 6 opponents by just under 1,000 yards so it’s not as if they are playing terrible. Just not up to expectations. They really should have destroyed a poor Maryland team that was reeling coming in getting outscored 73-6 in their previous 2 games. Not only that, their head coach Randy Edsall was rumored to be on the chopping block coming in and has since been fired. Even with that Maryland had the game tied at 21 midway through the third quarter before falling 49-28. Urban Meyer took a different approach with his QB’s last week and we look for him to stick to it for now. Cardale Jones remained the starter but because he has struggled at times getting his team in the endzone, Meyer decided to bring in back up JT Barrett every time the Bucks reached the redzone. It worked as OSU scored TD’s all 6 times they got inside the 20 yard line.

Penn State leaves Happy Valley for the first time since September 5th. It’s the first time the Nits have had to leave the state of Pennsylvania this season. They are 5-1 but all 5 wins have come at home and against the likes of Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, and Indiana (without their starting QB or RB). We’ll find a lot out about PSU this week and if their 5-1 mark is at least “semi” legit. PSU was a 14-point dog at home in this meeting a year ago and gave OSU a run losing by a TD in overtime. Being an underdog of this magnitude (+17 or higher) is very rare for Penn State as it’s happened only 4 times since 1980. Ohio State has won 5 of the last 6 in series with all wins coming by at least a TD.
 

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