Big Ten Report - Week 7
Iowa (6-0) at Northwestern (5-1) - ESPN2/ABC, 12:00 p.m.
Current Line: Hawkeyes (-2)
Opening Line: Hawkeyes (Pick-em)
This was an interesting opening line and an even more intriguing initial line move. We thought NW would come out as a small favorite here despite their poor performance last week. The line was released at pick-em and the first move pushed it all the way to Iowa -3 which in our opinion is a ridiculous line. Let’s not forget just two weeks ago, Iowa was +7 at Wisconsin, a team we have rated just barely above Northwestern. It has come back some and we expect it to push closer to even by the end of the week. Iowa is banged up coming out of their 29-20 home win vs Illinois last week. Both starting offensive tackles are injured and not on the depth chart for this week’s game. On top of that, the Hawks #1 defensive lineman Drew Ott was injured last week and is out for the year. NW starting CB Harris will be out this week but that’s about it for the Cats.
Northwestern was dominated by Michigan last week but the score was still a bit deceiving as the Wolves returned the opening kick for a TD and had a pick-six. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald has already stated this week that his team will (or at least should) have some extra motivation this week because of last week’s poor performance + Iowa beat them 48-7 last year + the Hawks are in 1st place in the Big Ten West. The Hawks ran the ball very well last week putting up 278 yards on the ground vs the Illini. They’ll need another good effort on the ground as QB Beathard has completed only 46% of his passes with just 2 TD’s in his first 2 Big Ten games. The host has won 5 straight in this series both SU & ATS.
Purdue (1-5) at Wisconsin (3-2) - BTN, 12:00 p.m.
Current Line: Badgers (-24)
Opening Line: Badgers (-20)
Another weird line move in our opinion. This line opened -20 and was pushed to -24 in favor of the Badgers. We expect that was set up to take the higher number later in the week and it will come down. Purdue was just +22 at Michigan State a few weeks ago (and almost won) and MSU, who is over rated by most, is still rated higher than Wisky on our board and everyone else’s. Minnesota, who is rated very close to Wisconsin in our ratings, was laying 3.5 points at Purdue last week so again we’re surprised by this current number. Wisconsin is off a huge, must win game at Nebraska kicking a FG at the horn to win 23-21. They have to have some type of a letdown playing a 1-5 Purdue team. The Boilers could have a better record as they’ve had a number of close calls that could have gone either way (Michigan State, Marshall, and Bowling Green). Last week’s 41-13 loss vs Minnesota was a bit deceiving. It was a 10-6 game in the 2nd half. The Gophs had a pick-six and while 400 total yards of offense was good for Minnesota, that normally doesn’t equate to 41 points.
Injury-wise, the Boilermakers are a bit banged up and LB and Wisconsin might be without starting center Voltz and starting RB Deal. Because if their injuries at RB and a green OL, the Badgers are only averaging 164 YPG rushing (66th nationally) after averaging 331 YPG on the ground last year (4th in the nation). Same with scoring as the Badgers average 26 PPG this season (68th nationally) after putting up 34 PPG last year (26th in the country). Defensively, Wisconsin has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s since their season opener with Alabama. This series has been dominated by Wisconsin covering 9 in a row. Since 1980, there has been only one time that a team in this series has been favored by more than this current number of -24.
Nebraska (2-4) at Minnesota (4-2) - ESPN2, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: Gophers (-2)
Opening Line: (Pick-em)
Poor Nebraska. Last week’s 23-21 loss at home to Wisconsin was basically the 4th time this year they’ve lost on the last play of the game – give or take a few seconds on a few of those losses. They have to be taxed mentally after that stretch. Now there are some rumblings that a few seniors on the team are still very loyal to former coach Bo Pelini and that might be causing some problems. A few of those players have been tweeting out “pro” Pelini stuff over the last few weeks which can be a distraction. The good this is, Nebraska has been very competitive. Their 4 last second losses have come against very good competition for the most part (Wisconsin, BYU, Miami FL, and Illinois). Despite their 2-4 record they are +6 YPG and +0.2 YPP on the season. It will be very interesting to see how they respond this weekend at Minnesota. The Gophs looked as though their offense finally “broke out” last weekend at Purdue scoring 41 points. However, they did so on “just” 400 yards which is a nice output but doesn’t normally lead to that many points on the scoreboard. The Gophs passing game is very sketchy. They put up 41 points last week despite throwing for only 82 yards. Teams have been able to exploit Nebraska’s pass defense which ranks 127th (out of 128) nationally but we’re not sure Minnesota can take advantage of that.
Before last week’s big win at Purdue, the Gophers previous 3 wins came by a combined 9 points over Ohio, Kent, and Colorado State. Injury-wise Minnesota hopes to get 2 senior DB starters back on the field (Travis & Boddy-Calhoun) after missing time. Nebraska got a little healthier on the DL where they were really hurting as Valentine returned. After getting destroyed in the first 2 games of this Big Ten series losing 41-14 in 2011 & 38-14 in 2012, Minnesota has bounced back and won each of the last 2 years. Last year the Gophs won 28-24 in Lincoln and in 2013 they won 34-23 here in Minneapolis. This game really depends on how Nebraska reacts to their tough losses this year. We know Minnesota will show up but will Nebraska? We’ll see.
Michigan State (6-0) at Michigan (5-1) - ESPN, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: Wolverines (-8)
Opening Line: Wolverines (-6)
This advanced line was available just a few weeks ago at pick-em. Now Michigan is -8 as of Wednesday A.M. That is a massive difference in the span of just a few weeks. Is it warranted? Possibly. MSU continues to be vastly over rated in our eyes. While they are 6-0 SU they are one of just two teams in the nation along with UCF that are 0-6 ATS. Sparty has played two of the Big Ten’s worst thus far and neither were great outings as they topped Purdue by a field goal and beat Rutgers last week by a TD. MSU is just +25 YPG despite their 6-0 record. Compare that to Michigan who is +210 YPG on the season and you can see why this line has been adjusted to where it is. The Spartans defense was talked about as being great entering the season yet they stand at “just” 47th nationally allowing 347 YPG.
Meanwhile, Michigan has pitched 3 consecutive shutouts and they rank #1 in the nation allowing only 181 YPG. Michigan’s defense has allowed only 4 offensive TD’s in 6 games this year. We know Harbaugh has really stressed winning this match up. This game and obviously Ohio State where the two games he really put a huge emphasis one prior to and during this season. MSU has rolled recently in this series winning 6 of the last 7 meetings (MSU has won 7 straight ATS) with Michigan’s only win during that stretch coming at home in 2012 by just 2 points. Last year, Michigan had just 186 total yards (MSU had 446 yards) in their 35-11 loss in East Lansing.
Rutgers (2-3) at Indiana (4-2) - BTN, 3:30 p.m.
Current Line: (N/A)
Opening Line: (N/A)
Still no line on this game as of early Wednesday. Indiana has two very important offensive players questionable here as starting QB Sudfeld and RB Howard both sat out last week’s loss at Penn State. Not only that back up QB Diamont has a shoulder issue and might not play. If the two top QB’s aren’t ready by Saturday, the Hoosiers will look to freshman Danny Cameron under center. Cameron picked up his first action of the season last week going 6 of 16 for 65 yards and an interception vs PSU. IU’s defense continues to be shredded on a weekly basis. They allowed a poor PSU offense to rack up 420 yards (100 yards over their average) and 29 points last week. It was the Nits 2nd highest scoring output of the season. With key players out, the Hoosiers were bad on offense scoring just 7 points on a paltry 3.5 YPP. The IU offense has been held to single digits twice since the start of last year, both vs Penn State.
Rutgers gave MSU a tough battle before falling at home 31-24 last week. Sparty scored a TD with just 43 seconds left to get the win. Two key Rutgers components returned last week – one was head coach Kyle Flood who was back for suspension and the other was WR Carroo who was reinstated to the team when assault charges against him were dropped last week. Carroo had an immediate impact with 134 yards receiving and 3 TD’s. While IU has a winning record and Rutgers a losing, the stats tell us differently. Through 6 games Indiana is actually -34 YPG and -1.0 YPP. Rutgers is +8 YPG and dead even on a YPP basis. This is obviously a game to stay away from for now with too many unknowns on the injury front.
Penn State (5-1) at Ohio State (6-0) - ABC, 8:00 p.m.
Current Line: Buckeyes (-17)
Opening Line: Buckeyes (-17.5)
The Buckeyes continue to underachieve having not covered a game since their opener vs Virginia Tech. They are -55 points overall this year when it comes to their spread numbers. Yet they have still outgained every opponent by at least 113 yards this year. They have outgained their 6 opponents by just under 1,000 yards so it’s not as if they are playing terrible. Just not up to expectations. They really should have destroyed a poor Maryland team that was reeling coming in getting outscored 73-6 in their previous 2 games. Not only that, their head coach Randy Edsall was rumored to be on the chopping block coming in and has since been fired. Even with that Maryland had the game tied at 21 midway through the third quarter before falling 49-28. Urban Meyer took a different approach with his QB’s last week and we look for him to stick to it for now. Cardale Jones remained the starter but because he has struggled at times getting his team in the endzone, Meyer decided to bring in back up JT Barrett every time the Bucks reached the redzone. It worked as OSU scored TD’s all 6 times they got inside the 20 yard line.
Penn State leaves Happy Valley for the first time since September 5th. It’s the first time the Nits have had to leave the state of Pennsylvania this season. They are 5-1 but all 5 wins have come at home and against the likes of Buffalo, Rutgers, San Diego State, Army, and Indiana (without their starting QB or RB). We’ll find a lot out about PSU this week and if their 5-1 mark is at least “semi” legit. PSU was a 14-point dog at home in this meeting a year ago and gave OSU a run losing by a TD in overtime. Being an underdog of this magnitude (+17 or higher) is very rare for Penn State as it’s happened only 4 times since 1980. Ohio State has won 5 of the last 6 in series with all wins coming by at least a TD.