Saturday 1/7/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WC - Lions at Seahawks
By Kevin Rogers

The first NFC Wild Card game takes place in Seattle on Saturday night between the Seahawks and Lions. Seattle is playing its first home playoff game since the 2014 NFC Championship in which the Seahawks rallied past the Packers in overtime. Detroit is back in the postseason for the first time since falling at Dallas in the Wild Card round of the 2014 campaign, while searching for its playoff win since 1991.

HOW THEY GOT HERE

Seattle (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) extended its playoff streak to five straight seasons after capturing its third NFC West title since 2013. Pete Carroll’s defense once again ranked in the top five of several categories including points per game (3rd at 18.3) and yardage allowed per game (5th at 318.7). Quarterback Russell Wilson threw for a career-best 4,219 yards, but was also intercepted a career-high 21 times, which included a five-interception game in a December loss at Green Bay.

Wilson owns a terrific 7-3 record as a starter in the playoffs since 2012, including a perfect 4-0 mark at CenturyLink Field. The Seahawks compiled a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS home ledger this season, while limiting five opponents to 18 points or less. Seattle went through an uneven finish to the season following an 8-2-1 start by finishing 3-3 in the final six contests. Four times in 2016 the Seahawks were held to 10 points or less, but all four of those performances came on the highway.

Detroit (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) began the season at 1-3, which included a 17-14 loss at Chicago in Week 4 as three-point favorites. The Lions would turn things around from there by winning eight of the next nine games, including seven victories in which they trailed in the fourth quarter. Jim Caldwell’s squad stumbled to the finish with three straight losses to the Giants, Cowboys, and Packers, all playoff teams, while giving up 73 points in the last two defeats.

Matthew Stafford put up similar numbers as last season, as the Lions’ quarterback posted 4,327 yards and threw a career-low 10 interceptions. However, Stafford’s numbers have gone down since dislocating the middle finger on his throwing hand in a comeback victory against Chicago in Week 14. In the last three losses, Stafford has compiled two touchdowns and three interceptions, while one of those touchdown passes came in the final minute of a 31-24 loss to the Packers last Sunday.

TOTAL TALK

The Lions finished UNDER the total in 10 of 16 games this season, including going 5-1 to the UNDER in the past six contests away from Ford Field. In spite of Seattle’s dominant defense, the Seahawks hit the OVER nine times in 2016, while going 4-1 to the OVER in the final five games.

PLAYOFF HISTORY

The Seahawks dodged a bullet in the Wild Card round last season against the Vikings on a last-second missed field goal in a 10-9 victory as four-point favorites. Seattle fell behind in the next round at Carolina, 31-0 after two quarters, but staged a furious comeback before losing, 31-24 to fall short of their third straight Super Bowl appearance. In the four home playoff wins with Wilson at quarterback, the Seahawks are 2-2 ATS, while the defense has limited the opposition to 22 points or less in each game.

The Lions last won a playoff game in 1991 with Erik Kramer at quarterback against the Cowboys at the Silverdome, 38-6. Since that blowout, Detroit has dropped eight consecutive postseason contests, including each of the last seven on the highway. Detroit’s last playoff appearance was a narrow loss in the 2014 Wild Card round at Dallas, 24-20, but the Lions cashed as six-point underdogs. The Lions blew a 14-0 lead in the loss as Stafford has yet to win a playoff game in two tries.

SERIES HISTORY

These teams didn’t meet this season, as Detroit fell short in a 13-10 setback at Seattle in 2015. The Lions’ offense didn’t reach the end zone as the defense scored on a 27-yard fumble recovery in the fourth quarter for the only Detroit touchdown. Seattle failed to cover as 10-point home favorites, but safety Kam Chancellor saved the win for the Seahawks by knocking the ball out Calvin Johnson’s hands at the one-yard line. Linebacker K.J. Wright tapped the ball out of the end zone for a touchback and preserve a Seattle win and send Detroit to an 0-4 start.

Stafford is 0-2 in his career at CenturyLink Field, but rallied Detroit to a 28-24 home triumph in 2014 over Seattle as 2 ½-point favorites. The Lions and Seahawks have never met in the postseason, while Detroit’s last win at Seattle came in 1999 at the old Kingdome as Charlie Batch started at quarterback in that season opener for the Lions.

LINE MOVEMENT

The Las Vegas Westgate Superbook opened the Seahawks as eight-point favorites, while the total came out at 42 ½. The side has stayed the same for most of the week, but the total has jumped to 43 and even 43 ½ at several books. Game time temperatures are expected to be in the high 30’s with a 30% of snowstorms.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER

Joe Nelson looks at Detroit’s late-season meltdown and how that will affect the Lions, “Detroit struggled with turnovers in the final month (-7) with a hand injury to Stafford possibly having more of an impact than anyone with the team has admitted. Stafford had a fine season but struggled down the stretch though in fairness the three losses to close the season all came in fairly competitive efforts vs. three of the top teams in the NFC.”

From a numbers standpoint, Nelson feels there are different ways to analyze it, “The statistics paint a big edge for Seattle, but while the Seahawks have been an inconsistent group with a few dominant wins skewing the numbers, Detroit has been consistently competitive. Five of seven losses for the Lions came by seven or fewer points while eight of nine wins came by seven or fewer points as Detroit was caught in close games almost every week.”

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Completions
25 – OVER (-110)
25 – UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-110)
1 ½ - UNDER (-110)

G. Tate – Total Receiving Yards
67 ½ - OVER (-110)
67 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Seattle

R. Wilson – Total Gross Passing Yards
264 ½ - OVER (-110)
264 ½ - UNDER (-110)

R. Wilson – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-130)
1 ½ - UNDER (+110)

J. Graham – Total Receiving Yards
55 ½ - OVER (-110)
55 ½ - UNDER (-110)

SUPER BOWL ODDS

The Seahawks opened the season at 8/1 odds to win the Super Bowl along with the Patriots and Steelers at the Westgate Superbook. Seattle is currently tied for fourth with Atlanta at 12/1 odds capture Super Bowl LI, while at 5/1 odds to win the NFC championship. Detroit started 2016 at 40/1 odds to hoist the title in Houston, but those numbers have dropped to 100/1 with the Lions needing three road victories just to get to the Super Bowl.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Top Action

AFC Wildcard Betting Preview
Oakland Raiders vs Houston Texans

Odds: Houston (-4); Total set at 36.5

The NFL playoffs have finally arrived and they begin with an AFC Wildcard game that doesn't exactly peak a high level of interest from general NFL fans.

The Oakland Raiders and Houston Texans have serious QB concerns entering this contest as the Raiders are going with 3rd string rookie QB Connor Cook (making his 1st start) and are hoping he can get them to the next round. It's a lot to ask of a rookie QB to make his first start in the playoffs, but Cook played in plenty of big time games while at Michigan State and the Raiders are confident he'll be alright.

Houston is turning to QB Brock Osweiler again after he was largely ineffective for the bulk of the season and getting benched because of his poor play. The Texans generally know what they've got in Osweiler but aren't thrilled about the prospect of having him line up under center.

With the winner of this game likely taking their QB concerns up to New England to face Tom Brady and company in the next round, will it be Oakland or Houston that makes that trip?

Given the issues both teams have at the most important position, it's not surprising to see bettors already pushing up the line on Houston to -4 after it opened at -3.5. Osweiler might not be good, but he's a known commodity compared to Cook and bettors prefer to go with what they know. Houston's defense is also tops in the league in yards allowed per game, so there is always that to rely on if the Texans are the team you are leaning on.

But sometimes unknown commodities like Cook can turn out to be much better then expected and he won't be shy to let it all hang out. Oakland will likely rely on their running game a bit more early on to get Cook comfortable, but if the Raiders are going to pull off the upset, it will likely have to be on the back of Cook's arm.

Yet, it may be the better option from a betting perspective to bypass the side entirely for this game given the QB concerns as those same concerns could work out in favor of one particular total play.

While playing the 'over' may not be the first thing that comes to mind when a game as QB issues on both sides like this one, it doesn't mean that it's not a solid play. Both QB's will likely throw at least one INT and turnovers often create short fields and points can follow in a hurry. Trying to handicap turnovers in the NFL is nearly impossible, but with a rookie QB making his first career start and Osweiler and his 16 INT's on the year, it does make that task a little easier here.

The Raiders defense is already familiar with Osweiler having faced (and beaten) him in Mexico earlier this year and they were able to force two turnovers (1 INT, 1 fumble) that night. Oakland will look to stop a running attack led by Lamar Miller that did most of Houston's damage against him that day and force Osweiler to beat them, and typically that's been a blueprint for success when facing Houston this season.

On the other side, Houston may not know much about Cook, but there is sure to be some rookie jitters for him out there and their defense will look to force the issue as well. The Texans actually dominated Oakland's ground attack in that first meeting, holding them to just 30 yards on the ground, so Cook will have to take to the air to make some big plays. That will either lead to big completions or INT's and either way it's generally good for points to be scored.

Finally, with this total still below the key number of 37 there is plenty of value in backing a relatively high-scoring game. Betting percentage numbers show about 60% in favor of the 'under' so far as expected, but the likelihood of multiple turnovers, and the notion that these two QB's could even surprise everyone by lighting it up favors points to be scored.

Yes, the Texans defense is the best in the league, but Oakland showed in Week 1 when they went for a 2-pt conversion to win rather then tie in New Orleans that HC Jack Del Rio that he isn't afraid to take risks.

Del Rio has to understand that a conservative approach with a 3rd string QB making his first career NFL start on the road in the playoffs is far from the best way to win this game and I expect we see at least 40 points here.

Best Bet: Take Over 36.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC Wild Card January 7 2016'

The Wild Card round kicks off Saturday afternoon at NRG Stadium in Houston, a game many NFL sports bettors may be reluctant to wager on. And, with good reason as the quarterback situation each club faces is undesirable. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio has confirmed third-stringer Connor Cook will take snaps on Saturday. This marks Cook's his first start since December 2015 when he was Michigan State's QB in a 38-0 Cotton Bowl loss to Alabama. On the other side, Texans' QB Tom Savage out with* a concussion means they'll turn back to Brock Osweiler (15 TD, 16 Int) benched in WK-16 due to his ineffective play.

Those wiling to roll-the-dice in this one a few betting nuggets to ponder. Raiders beat Texans' 27-20 Wk-11 in Mexico as a 6.5-point favorite which marked a 5-0 ATS streak vs an AFC South opponents. Raiders were 6-2 ATS on the road this season, 4-1 ATS taking points (although mostly with Carr). They also own a sparkling 7-0 ATS streak off a division loss, 6-0 ATS mark off a loss facing a team that also suffered defeat in their last game. As for Houston, the Texans' were 4-3-1 ATS in front of the home audience (mostly with Osweiler) and hit the field ridding a 1-5 SU/ATS skid vs an AFC West opponent.

Oddsmakers opened Texans' -3 point home favorites but the betting market has since moved the number to -4.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Raiders at Texans

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (3.5, 36.5)

The highest-profile position on the field also will be the one surrounded by the most question marks when the Houston Texans host the Oakland Raiders on Saturday afternoon in the opening game of Wild Card Weekend. Oakland is down to its third-string quarterback in rookie Connor Cook while Houston turns back to Brock Osweiler, who was benched three weeks ago.

The rematch from Week 11, when Oakland rallied for a 27-20 win in Mexico behind two fourth-quarter touchdown passes by Derek Carr, will have a decidedly different look after Carr broke his leg in Week 15 and backup Matt McGloin injured his left shoulder in the regular-season finale. That leaves Cook in line to become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to have his first career start occur in the postseason, a welcome development for the AFC South champions' top-ranked defense. “That’s great, I hope we blitz him all game," Houston defensive end Jadeveon Clowney told reporters. Osweiler started the first 15 games for the Texans before losing his job to Tom Savage, who suffered a concussion last week to give Osweiler a second chance.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN.

POWER RANKINGS: Raiders (0) - Texans (0.5) + home field (-3) = Texans -2.5

LINE HISTORY: The Texans opened as field goal favorites and that number was bet as high as 4, before fading to 3.5 late in the week. The total opened at 37, has bounced back and forth between 37 and 36.5 all week, currently settling at 36.5.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

WHAT BOOKS SAY - "Bettors began taking the Texans when news broke that Cook was starting for Oakland. We moved to -3.5 and then -4, but took some sharp action on that number so quickly adjusted back to -3.5. The total has dropped a full point down to 36.5 and we’ve got almost 75 percent of the handle on the under." - Scott Cooley.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "This is the first time in NFL Playoff history during the Super Bowl era (past 51 years) that a quarterback will be starting a playoff game after not starting a single regular season game during his career. Oakland's third-string rookie QB Connor Cook played the majority of the game last week at Denver, after Matt McGloin was injured. Cook was decent, completing 67% of his passes for 7.1 yards per pass with a 83.4 QB rating. Cook has only taken the majority of the snaps in one other game this season and that was during the Preseason in Week 4 against Seattle's backups. Cook was terrible in that game, averaging just 4.8 yards per pass with a 50.0 QB rating." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Raiders - DT Stacy McGee (probable, ankle), WR Amari Cooper (probable, shoulder), WR Michael Crabtree (probable, ankle), S Karl Joseph (probable, toe), QB Matt McGloin (questionable, shoulder), OL Kelechi Osemele (questionable, knee), OT Donald Penn (questionable, knee), WR Andre Holmes (questionable, shoulder), LB Malcolm Smith (questionable, hamstring), OT Austin Howard (questionable, shoulder), S Nate Allen (doubtful, concussion), LB Aldon Smith (out for season, suspension), QB Derek Carr (out for season, leg), LB Shilique Calhoun (IR, knee)

Texans - DE Jadeveon Clowney (probable, elbow), RB Lamar Miller (probable, ankle), CB Jonathan Joseph (probable, shoulder), LB Brian Cushing (probable, ankle), G Jeff Allen (questionable, ankle), CB A.J. Bouye (questionable, groin), S Quintin Demps (questionable, hamstring), TE Ryan Griffin (questionable, quadricep), FB Jay Prosch (questionable, ankle), LB John Simon (questionable, chest), OT Chris Clark (questionable, leg), QB Tom Savage (out, concussion)

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS, 11-5 O/U): Oakland, making its first postseason appearance since reaching the Super Bowl in 2002, is hoping to rally around Cook, a fourth-round draft pick out of Michigan State who finished 14-of-21 for 150 yards with a touchdown and an interception in last week's loss at Denver. "Obviously, playing at Michigan State, we played in some big-time games there," said Cook, who was inactive for the first 15 games. "So, I'm going to try and take whatever I did there, use it, put it to use out there Saturday." The Raiders have the league's No. 6 rushing attack at 120.1 yards per game and likely will try to ease the pressure on Cook by featuring a heavy dose of Latavius Murray and rookie DeAndre Washington. Defensive end Khalil Mack has recorded 11 sacks for a unit that ranked last in the league with 25.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS, 6-10 O/U): Coach Bill O'Brien finally ran out of patience with Osweiler, a high-priced free-agent signee in the offseason, after he tossed a pair of interceptions against lowly Jacksonville on Dec. 18. The injury to Savage - currently in the NFL concussion protocol - also gives Osweiler an opportunity to erase the memory of a year ago, when he was benched in Denver's regular-season finale in favor of Peyton Manning, who promptly led the Broncos to the Super Bowl title. "When you do become the backup, you're able to observe a lot more," O'Brien told reporters. "You're able to observe in practice. In the games, in the meetings, and I think it helped him." The Texans received a boost when running back Lamar Miller, who rushed for 1,069 yards this season, practiced fully on Wednesday after missing two games with an ankle injury.

TRENDS:

* Raiders are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
* Under is 6-0 in Texans last 6 games following a ATS loss.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The public is split 50/50 on this battle of inexperienced quarterbacks. As for the total, 53 percent of wagers are on the under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raiders (12-4) at Texans (9-7)

Date: January 07, 2017 4:35 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- There was something noble in how Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien and his Oakland Raiders counterpart, Jack Del Rio, masked their disappointment while naming respective starting quarterbacks for their Saturday AFC Wild Card postseason game at NRG Stadium.

Although hardly planned, the game will feature a duel between quarterbacks who represent the most expensive free-agent disappointment of this last offseason against the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to debut as a starter in a playoff game.

To sum up: Oakland rookie Connor Cook debuts on the road in a playoff game against Houston's expensive, free-agent disappointment, Brock Osweiler.

For the Texans (9-7), champions of the AFC South, Osweiler reclaimed his post because Tom Savage was lost to a concussion in the season finale against the Tennessee Titans. Savage supplanted the ineffective Osweiler against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 18.

The Raiders (12-4) roared to their first playoff appearance since 2002 behind MVP candidate and third-year quarterback Derek Carr. He passed his way onto some MVP ballots by passing for 3,937 yards and 28 touchdowns before breaking his right fibula in Week 17. In week Carr's journeyman backup, Matt McGloin, injured his shoulder. Now Cook will get his first NFL start.

On Wednesday, O'Brien ruled Savage out against Oakland and elevated Brandon Weeden to backup status. That leaves the responsibility of beating the Raiders solely on Osweiler, whose poor statistical production this season was at the crux of the Texans' woeful offense and minus-49 point-differential.

"As a head coach, every decision you make is all about the best interest of the team and what's the best way that we can help the team win," O'Brien said. "As it relates to players maybe being moved from starter to backup role, I think every coach and every player learns from those situations."

Following his decent midseason run as the starter with the Denver Broncos last season, Osweiler was deemed the solution to the Texans' longstanding issues at quarterback. Houston signal caller Brian Hoyer committed five turnovers in last year's embarrassing 30-0 postseason setback to the Kansas City Chiefs, prompting the Texans front office to bestow a four-year, $72 million contract upon Osweiler.

What they received in return was a quarterback who posted the lowest yards per attempt (5.8) of any starter in the league and one who stewarded an offense that ranked 28th in scoring (279 points), 29th in yards (5,035), and 30th in passing touchdowns (15). Houston produced a paltry 23 offensive touchdowns.

"I've had great success in this league playing football so I'm very confident," Osweiler said. "I'm very confident in my teammates and I know we'll be ready to go."

When Carr was lost, the Raiders were at least able to bring in McGloin, who had starts for the Raiders in 2013, including a 28-23 road win over the Texans. In that game, he passed for three touchdowns and 197 yards with a 105.9 rating.

But when McGloin injured his non-throwing shoulder last week, Del Rio turned to Cook, a fourth-round pick out of Michigan State.

"I'm just embracing the opportunity," Cook said. "Going to go out there and have fun, let it all hang out and obviously prepare my butt off, do what I've been doing all season long and just go out there and have fun with my teammates."

The challenge ahead for both teams is to make the best of the given roster components. Osweiler delivered a decent performance in a 27-20 loss to the Raiders in Week 11, passing for 243 yards with a touchdown and an interception. The Texans settled for two red-zone field goals, par for the course for an offense than finished 31st in red-zone touchdown percentage at 40.9 percent. No matter the quarterback, the Texans will need greater red-zone proficiency to produce positive results.

Oakland still employs two 1,000-yard receivers in Amari Cooper (83 receptions for 1,153 yards and five touchdowns) and Michael Crabtree (89-1,003-8) plus a stout offensive line. And, for what it is worth, Cook may actually have a stronger throwing arm than McGloin or even Carr. But that isn't necessarily the measure for success at quarterback.

Houston boasts the second-ranked passing defense in the NFL so the challenge was going to be a tough one for an experienced NFL quarterback.

For a team that features seven Pro Bowlers and that won 12 games for the first time since 2000, resilience is a necessary asset to keep what has been a magical season alive for one additional week.

"You do the best you can regardless of the circumstances," Del Rio said. "It's a great opportunity. You have these great opportunities in life to be at your best and you do get these great challenges. So, how do you respond?

"What we want to do is respond like men and go in there full of energy and belief and fight our butts off."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Lions at Seahawks

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 43)

The Seattle Seahawks are making their fifth consecutive playoff appearance on the heels of trading wins and losses over their last six games, while the Detroit Lions' bid to capture the NFC North title was dashed by three straight defeats to end the season. Both teams will look to get it in gear on Saturday night, when they meet in a wild-card tilt at CenturyLink Field in Seattle.

"Everything that's already happened doesn't matter at all,” said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, who might be comforted by the fact that he - along with quarterback Russell Wilson - has yet to suffer a playoff loss in the Pacific Northwest while Detroit hasn't won a postseason game since 1991. Wilson (career-high 4,219 passing yards) threw a touchdown pass in a 25-23 victory over San Francisco on Sunday and found Doug Baldwin for a scoring strike in the last encounter with the Lions, resulting in Seattle's 13-10 triumph on Oct. 5, 2015. While Wilson reportedly is contemplating removing his knee brace for the playoffs, Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford said he hasn't been affected by wearing a glove on his throwing hand to protect an injured finger, although he has registered two touchdowns and three interceptions in his last three games after recording 22 TDs and seven picks prior to the injury. Stafford threw for 347 yards and two scores in a 31-24 setback against Green Bay on Sunday and has averaged 351.5 yards in two career playoff appearances.

TV: 8:15 p.m. ET, NBC.

POWER RANKINGS: Lions (0) - Seahawks (-2.5) + home field (-3) = Seahawks -5.5

LINE HISTORY: The Seahawks opened this game as 7.5-point home favorites and that number has grown to 8. The total opened at 43 and briefly dropped to 42.5 before returning to the original number late in the week.

WEATHER REPORT: It is shaping up for an awful afternoon for football in Seattle. The forecast is calling for considerable cloud at kickoff and a little accumulation of snow and rain later in the afternoon. Temperatures will be in the high 30’s with winds between six-nine miles per hour coming from the east.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "The sharp bettors haven’t really taken much of a stand for this one as of yet. A few quickly grabbed on the -7 open most likely as a position play and hoping it balloons out of control. We have more than 65 percent of the action on Seattle as of now but we do expect to see some smart guys on the dog at some point." - Scott Cooley.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "Seattle continues to possess a very strong home field, going 7-1 SU this season. This is a difficult scheduling situation for the Lions as they are traveling on a short week after playing the Sunday night game versus Green Bay. Detroit enters the playoffs on a 0-3 SU/ATS slide, while Seattle has alternated wins/losses in their past six games, going 3-3 SU (2-4 ATS) down the stretch of the regular season. The Seahawks have only won three of their past 12 games this season by more than seven points." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Lions - WR Andre Roberts (questionable, shoulder), LB DeAndre Levy (questionable, knee), C Travis Swanson (questionable, concussion), DE Ezekiel Ansah (questionable, undisclosed), WR Marvin Jones Jr. (questionable, concussion), OT Riley Reiff (questionable, hip), CB Asa Jackson (IR ankle), OT Corey Robinson (IR, foot), RB Ameer Abdullah (IR, foot), RB Theo Riddick (IR, wrist), DT Stefan Charles (IR, knee)

Seahawks - DT Tony McDaniel (questionable, concussion), RB C.J. Promise (out, shoulder), LS Nolan Frese (IR, ankle), WR Tyler Lockett (IR, leg)

ABOUT THE LIONS (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10, O/U): Former Seattle wideout Golden Tate overcame a horrendous start to the season to lead the team with 1,077 receiving yards, with 404 and two touchdowns coming on 33 receptions in his last four road games. Tate has made himself at home in his third season with Detroit after signing a five-year, $31 million contract on the heels of helping the Seahawks win Super Bowl XLVIII. "I thought they wanted me back. I thought I did everything I could to help them win a Super Bowl, was in the community, was a good guy," Tate told reporters. "But you know, it worked out. I'm happy where I am and excited about the future of this organization, and hopefully I'm here for a long, long time." Zach Zenner has given Detroit's 30th-ranked rushing game a jolt with 136 yards and three touchdowns in his last two contests.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U): Seattle's ground game has struggled to get untracked since the retirement of Marshawn Lynch, with Thomas Rawls plagued by multiple injuries while Christine Michael (now with Green Bay) and C.J. Prosise (shoulder) also saw their paths to stardom slowed. "We just keep going," Carroll said on 710 ESPN Seattle. "We keep running. We have to keep running to make sure that we have the mix that we want." Wideouts Jermaine Kearse (six touchdowns in seven career playoff games) and Baldwin (four TDs in last six postseason contests) have come up large in the passing game. Former Lion Cliff Avril recorded six of his team-leading 11.5 sacks in his last six home games while fellow Pro Bowl defensive end Michael Bennett has registered one in back-to-back postseason contests.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. NFC.
* Seahawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
* Under is 8-2 in Lions last 10 games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Seahawks last 6 playoff games.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

CONSENSUS: So far the public is backing the underdog with 61 percent wagering on the Lions. Meanwhile the Over is getting 58 percent of the action on the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Lions (9-7) at Seahawks (10-5)

Date: January 07, 2017 8:15 PM EDT

SEATTLE -- While a rocky December did not leave the Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions appearing to be playoff-ready, history provides an indication as to how their Saturday night NFC wild-card game might go at CenturyLink Field.

The Seahawks have never lost a playoff game there, the Lions have never won any game there, and Detroit has not won a playoff game anywhere in its past eight tries.

"Obviously, there's a great opportunity in front of us being in the playoffs, one of 12 teams getting that opportunity this year, and (we've) got to take advantage of it," Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford said in a conference call this week.

Whether or not the Lions can debunk recent trends and come away with the upset might come down to how good Stafford can throw the ball. A legitimate MVP candidate for much of the season, Stafford has been hampered by an injured finger on his throwing hand. The injury is one reason Detroit stumbled down the stretch to lose its final three regular-season games.

"It wasn't a huge challenge," Stafford said of wearing a glove to protect the finger in Green Bay last week. "I had a bunch of gloves to choose from and obviously figured out one that works for me, and I've been using that one pretty much since."

There are also plenty of issues with the Seahawks, despite their eight-game postseason home winning streak that dates back to January 2005, when they lost to the St. Louis Rams in a temporary home at the University of Washington's football stadium. A 2-2 record since Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas went down has been disconcerting, and some sideline squabbles only added fodder to the idea that Seattle is a team in turmoil.

"Everything that's already happened doesn't matter at all," said Seahawks coach Pete Carroll, whose team suffered its only home loss of the season the last time it played at CenturyLink Field.

Despite the late-season fade, which is rare for the Seahawks during the Carroll era, Seattle has a lot on its side. The Seahawks' six playoff wins since 2013 are the most in the NFL, and Seattle owns a 48-13 home record (including playoffs) since Carroll arrived in 2010.

Despite all the turmoil that weighed down the Seahawks over the final four games of the regular season, there is genuine optimism in that this franchise knows how to win in the postseason.

"The playoffs are something we're used to around here now," defensive end Michael Bennett told reporters this week, "and getting back to the Super Bowl is something we have to get back to."

When asked what he likes most about this Seahawks team, Carroll said, "Mainly that we're comfortable with this opportunity (to play in the postseason)."

On Tuesday night, the Seahawks added kick return specialist Devin Hester to help their playoff run. The 11-year veteran replaces Tyler Lockett, who broke his leg in a game against the Arizona Cardinals on Dec. 24.

The 34-year-old Hester has an NFL-record 20 returns for touchdowns, including a record 14 on punts, five on kickoffs and one on a missed field goal attempt return.

The Lions, who lost their final three games to finish 9-7 and finish behind Green Bay in the NFC North standings, don't have nearly the playoff experience -- or success -- upon which to fall back. Detroit made only two playoff appearances since 1999 and has not won a postseason game since 1991 -- when Stafford was not yet 3 years old.

The team's recent history was not pretty, either, as the three-game losing streak left the Lions searching for answers heading into the playoffs.

Detroit probably won't blink if the Seahawks ride the wave of the home crowd to an early lead. The Lions trailed in the fourth quarter of every game during the regular season, and they overcame nine fourth-quarter deficits while streaking out to a 9-4 record before falling back to earth in December and early January.

"Our guys did a real nice job battling through some ups and downs," said Lions coach Jim Caldwell, who went to the Super Bowl in his first season as a head coach with the Colts in 2009 but hasn't won a playoff game since then. "I think we've grown."

Both teams, despite their late-season fades, are happy to still be playing.

"If you're not enjoying this, you're missing it," Carroll said. "This is great stuff, every part of it, every phase of it. ... . It's all fun, and it's really what we work for."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Wild Card round

Raiders (12-4) @ Texans (9-7)— Two teams with QB issues; rookie 3rd-stringer Cook is making his first NFL start this week- he was 14-21/150 in relief in Denver LW, his NFL debut. Raiders won 8 of last 10 games but loss of QB Carr and loss to Broncos LW cost them first-round bye and any real chance of getting to Super Bowl. Oakland (-6.5) beat Houston 27-20 in a Monday night game in Mexico City Nov 21 (week after Raiders’ bye). Oakland is 6-2 on road, 3-2 as road underdog but that was with Carr playing. Osweiler starts at QB for Texans, after he was benched for #2 QB Savage, who then got a concussion. Houston won three of last four games, is 7-1 at home, 3-2-1 as home favorite. Oakland is in playoffs for first time since losing Super Bowl 14 years ago. Texans are in playoffs for 4th time in last six years.*Home side won #4-5 seed AFC game four of last five years.

Lions (9-7) @ Seahawks (10-5-1)— Detroit lost its last two games to miss out on winning NFC North for first time since 1993; they’ve won one playoff game since 1957, are in playoffs for 3rd time in last 17 years. Stafford has an injured finger on throwing hand; Detroit scored 17 pts/game in losing last three games, were -7 in turnovers in last four. Lions have trailed in 4th quarter in every game but one this season; they’re 3-5 on road, 3-4 as road dogs. Seahawks split last six*games, are 4-3-1 as home favorites this year- they played only four playoff teams this year, going 3-1. Detroit lost weird 13-10 night game in Seattle LY, when Seahawks scored controversial late TD. Lions are 5-8 overall vs Seattle, 1-6 here, with only win back in 1999. Under is 8-2 in Detroit’s last ten games, 1-4 in Seattle’s last five.*Road team is 4-4 in NFC #3-6 game last eight years; underdogs covered four of last six years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

With frigid temperatures and snow throughout a lot of the country, I am trying to stay warm here in northern Florida (it will be 28 degrees tonight) by heading to Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita for Saturday.

It will be a balmy 83 degrees in Hallandale, Florida for an outstanding 11-race card that features four stakes. My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes action from Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita where it will be just 64 degrees with some morning showers.

The $100,000 Sham (G3) is the feature at Santa Anita, a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race.

The stakes action at Gulfstream Park kicks off early with the third race, the $100,000 Old Hat for three-year-old fillies that drew a field of seven. The Todd Pletcher trained Bode’s Dream is the 8-5 morning line favorite off a gate to wire score in the House Party in her last outing in the slop at Gulfstream Park.

The fourth race is the $100,000 Dania Beach (G3) for three-year-olds going 7 ½ furlongs on turf. The Pletcher trained Made You Look is the 9-5 favorite but I think Kitten’s Cat (3-1) for the Joe Sharp barn deserves a good look.

The ninth race on the card is the $100,000 Ginger Brew for three-year-old fillies on turf going 7 ½ furlongs. A field of 12 go to the post in one of the most wide open races on the card.

The final stake on the afternoon is the $100,000 Mucho Macho Man at a mile on the main track. The Tom Albertrani trained Hemsworth is the 7-2 morning line favorite but won the Nashua (G2) last out taking full advantage of an inside speed favoriting tracing strip. I’ll try and beat him this afternoon.


Here is the opening race from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $35,000 (12:00 ET)
#6 Misschief Maas 5-1
#10 Creative Talent 9-2
#4 Hello Juliet 4-1
#2 Chocolate Bourbon 12-1

Analysis: Misschief Maas stalked the early pace from the inside and finished evenly in a third place finish last out in her first start off nearly a six month layoff. She broke her maiden going 4 1/2 at Monmouth Park back in June in her second career start. She drops in for a $35,000 tag here and should be tighter second off the bench for Plesa and Lopez sticks.

Creative Talent has been beaten double digit lengths in her three starts since breaking her maiden by eight lengths over the main track here back in July. However, her last two were in stakes company and she looks well spotted here on the class drop. She makes her second start off a two month break and looking for her to bounce back facing softer here.

Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 6,10 / 2,4,6,10
TRI: 6,10 / 2,4,6,10 / 2,4,5,6,10

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 The Mucho Macho Man (4:34 ET)
#3 Talk Logistics 10-1
#4 Even Thunder 10-1
#9 Recruiting Ready 6-1
#6 Cavil 9-2

Analysis: Hemsworth may go off as the favorite off his big win in the Nashua (G2) but he took advantage of an inside speed favoring racing strip and we will take a stand against and go with Talk Logistics. Our top pick pressed the early pace and drew away to a smart looking maiden win in his debut at Philly and then came from off the pace to rally to finish second in the Buffalo Man behind Sonic Mule. The colt should be able to handle the extra ground. He is by High Cotton out of a Trippi mare that has dropped three other winners including stakes winner Schivarelli ($300,900) who won going long.

Even Thunder was a game winner of the King Swan last out at the Big A going six furlongs off a 2 1/2 month break. He makes his second start since landing with Orseno and his last pair of speed figs fit nicely if he can run back to those figs going long for the first time. He is by Even the Score out of a Thunder Gulch mare that has dropped two foals to race, both sprint winners. Worth a look here if he goes off near his 10-1 morning line.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 6-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 3,4,6,9
TRI: 3,4 / 3,4,6,9 / 3,4,6,9,11

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 7 The Sham G3 (3:30 PT)
#1 American Anthem 9-5
#6 Big Hit 4-1
#5 Gormley 8-5
#2 Term of Art 5-1

Analysis: American Anthem was a good looking maiden winner in his debut for the Bob Baffert barn that has won this race four times. The colt tracked the early pace and finished gamely to win by a neck. Three runners have exited the race to run back and they have all won. The $425,000 Ocala purchase is by Bodemeister out of a A.P. Indy mare that has dropped three other winners. The barn is 25% winners moving runners from sprint to route and this guy has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground. He should get a dream trip sitting just off the pace and is even quick enough to be right in the mix early.

Big Hit got the job done last out in his third career start, taking the field gate to wire at Del Mar going 6 ½ furlongs. He was well beaten by Gormley in his debut and by Term of Art second out. He tired to finish sixth in his first trip around two turns but sure has enough pedigree, by Super Saver out of a Hard Spun mare, her first foal to race. He is headed in the right direction and still looks as if he has some upside.

Gormley broke his maiden in his debut and took the field gate to wire to win the Frontrunner (G1) in his first start against winners, able to get away with moderate early fractions. He was sent off at 5-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but bobbled at the break and faded to finish a well beaten seventh. The colt has worked sharply since his last outing and the fact Shirreffs has kept this guy in training instead of giving him a longer break bodes well he is going to bounce back with a much better effort. However, his price is going to be light and he will not have an easy lead here.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,2,5,6
TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,5,6 / 1,2,5,6,7

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1: #2 Chocolate Bourbon 12-1
R3: #5 Sister Nation 8-1
R5: #5 Truly a Moon Shot 8-1
R6: #3 Creative Courage 12-1
R6: #9 Dover Cliffs 12-1
R8: #2 Tarperge 8-1
R10: #3 Talk Logistics 10-1
R10: #4 Even Thunder 10-1
R11: #2 Authentic Kitten 15-1
R11: #3 Princess Victoria 8-1
R11: #13 Anthony Lass 8-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 4:20 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$11100 - CD 3-6YO NW 5 EXT PM RACES OR $25,000 LIFE. AE: 3-6YO F& M NW 6 EXT PM RACES LIFE
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 2 CANDY LANE 5/1
# 4 WANNA BE A WINNA 3/1
# 5 UP FRONT MURRAY 12/1

CANDY LANE looks formidable to best this group. Sometimes you just have to go with a feeling, lean toward this one's chances. Has really strong TrackMaster Speed Ratings and surely has to be considered for a wager this time. It's dangerous to consider based only on class, but this mare has among the best class figures of the field of horses. WANNA BE A WINNA - Many analyzers love this gelding on the driver-trainer rankings alone. In recent times Palone has been hot, which may give the edge to this gelding in this race. UP FRONT MURRAY - Hands down the best position at The Meadows is the 5. The win statistic is great. A great play in here as he has one of the highest winning statistics in the field of starters as well as magnificent credentials all around.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 7:50 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 84 - Purse:$12000 - NW $4,000 LAST 5 STARTS OR NW $8,000 LAST 10 STARTS.
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 10 JUSTICE JET 4/1
# 9 IN SECRET 9/2
# 5 MAXIMUSCLE 5/1

JUSTICE JET sure does look ready to end up in the winner's circle. Has very nice speed figures and definitely has to be considered for a play this time. This fine animal looks tough considering the high class ratings. Don't throw out of any exotics. Many harness players will recognize the outstanding TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last affair. Stacks up against any horse in this field of horses. IN SECRET - Take a look at this contender's average speed rating of 88 and compare to today's class rating. Looks like a great wager. Heads into this competition with nice TrackMaster class stats in relationship to the group - take a good look. MAXIMUSCLE - Terrific win figure combined with recent respectable performances. We think he can handle this group.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 95

MUCHO MACHO MAN S. - THREE YEAR OLDS. FREE NOMINATION BY MONDAY, DECEMBER 26. $750 TO ENTER AND $250 TO START. $100,000 GUARANTEED. AFTER PAYMENT OF 1% TO ALL OWNERS OF HORSES FINISHING SIXTH THROUGH LAST, 62% OF THE REMAINING PURSE SHALL BE PAID TO THE OWNER OF THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A GRADED STAKES


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 6 CAVIL 9/2

# 5 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET 5/1

# 3 TALK LOGISTICS 10/1

My choice for this event is CAVIL. Has run soundly when racing a dirt route race. Look for a respectable pace improvement from this horse who enters with second time Lasix today. With a formidable 104 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this competition. SKYLER'S SCRAMJET - Is hard not to consider based on speed figures which have been solid - 95 avg - of late. Look for a solid pace improvement from this pony who enters with second time Lasix today. TALK LOGISTICS - This animal enters today's contest with second time Lasix. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last outing.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $42000 Class Rating: 78

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR MD SIRED OR MD BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000-$45,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000, FOR EACH $2,500 TO $45,000 1 LB. (RACES


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 7 CRABCAKES 1/1

# 2 STAR STUDDED 7/2

# 3 EURO PRINCESS 15/1

CRABCAKES has a very good shot to take this race. Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (84 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Houghton has her trained solidly to break swiftly out of the gate. Recorded a formidable Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this affair. STAR STUDDED - This racer enters today's contest on Lasix. Is tough not to examine given the company run in recently. EURO PRINCESS - Have to examine solely on class, with some of the most favorable class figures of this group of animals.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #8 - Post: 3:30pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#9 ALERTANDLISTENING (ML=9/2)
#7 MY PISANO (ML=20/1)
#10 MIKE WASOWSKY (ML=20/1)


ALERTANDLISTENING - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st time on December 20th. Should know the horse even better in today's contest. Three consecutive improved speed figures (56-62-68) make this horse a strong contender. I like the piece of information that this gelding's last speed figure, 68, is tops in this bunch. MY PISANO - Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer to the winner with each recent start. Gelding is a few starts into a return here. Should give a big performance today. 45-53-55 are last three speed figures. Improving each time out is something he should do again in this event. MIKE WASOWSKY - Trainer, Hamm, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. Going on Lasix for the first time. While a familiar handicapping angle, it's still quite important to know.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 ACADEMIC AFFAIR (ML=3/1), #5 NAVIGANDO (ML=5/1), #12 CONQUEST CYCLONE (ML=6/1),

ACADEMIC AFFAIR - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this one does. NAVIGANDO - Last performed on December 20th at Mahoning Valley Race Cour, finishing sixth. Unlikely to move up off of that try in today's event. This vulnerable equine has been a bummer for the bettors as the favorite time and time again. CONQUEST CYCLONE - It looks like too much early speed is on board in this race. This early speedster will almost certainly get cooked on the front end. Don't think this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's race. That last speed figure was mediocre when compared with today's Equibase class figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Play #9 ALERTANDLISTENING to win if you can get odds of 3/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

Box [7,9,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [7,9,10] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#3 MRS BARBAROUX (ML=9/2)


MRS BARBAROUX - Entered last at Parx Racing in a race with a class figure of 78. Dropping considerably in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position in today's race. For my money, a bullet workout is the best indicator of fitness there is. Look at that last one - 36.3. Very impressive. Brown gets a break on this thoroughbred carrying 5 lbs less than last out. Should make the difference in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 HARLINGTON ROMANCE (ML=5/2), #6 SAHARAN SERENADE (ML=7/2), #7 HEAVY TIPPER (ML=4/1),

HARLINGTON ROMANCE - Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last three weeks. Cause for some concern. HEAVY TIPPER - Awfully hard to wager on this vulnerable equine when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Have to go with #3 MRS BARBAROUX on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:18 PM EASTERN POST

The Ladies Handicap

8.3 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES
$100,000.00 PURSE

#4 WONDER GAL
#1 HIGHWAY STAR
#5 ALWAYS ON MY MIND
#3 CHORUS LINE

The Ladies Handicap which was Inaugurated at the Jerome Park Racetrack in 1868, it is the oldest stakes race in the U.S. exclusively for fillies and mares. Here in the 147th running of this stakes event, #4 WONDER GAL, the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about, today's distance of a mile and seventy yards on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in each of her last five starts, hitting the board in a pair, including a BLISTERING, 12-length, "POWER RUN WIN" in her 4th race back. #1 HIGHWAY STAR, the pace profile leader in this field, has hit the board in four straight, winning three times, including back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in her last two starts. Jockey Angel Arroyo has been in her irons on two previous occasions, winning 'em both, en route to a + 560% return on investment in the process, and is back this afternoon here in Ozone Park for his 3rd ride, gunning for a "Hat Trick Win!"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/7 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

PICK 5: 1,5,6,10/9/1,3,4,6/1,2,3,6/2,6 = $25.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,3,6/2,6/6/1,2,7 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 2,5/3,5,6,7/1,4,6/4,6 = $48

MEET STATS: 66 - 259 / $410.30 BEST BETS: 10 - 24 / $36.40

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 24 / $33.20

Best Bet: WANDA BAYAMA (6th)

Spot Play: IN SECRET (2nd)


Race 1

(5) ADVERSITY figures to get a good trip here stalking what should be a solid pace and if the flow is decent, he can collar the leaders late. (10) HUBBY NUMBER ONE took a new life's mark last time out and he is another that should be passing some tired leaders in the back 1/2 here. (1) AMITYVILLE LINDY comes off a solid win from this tricky post and he's another that can pass rivals; using. (6) STAR PHOTO ships in sporting a nice win streak and goes for a hot stable. He could get stung early here, though.

Race 2

(9) IN SECRET showed some late interest in his comeback race now he drops to a level where he can dominate if he is close to right. Expect early aggression here. (10) JUSTICE JET has had sharp speed late in both miles here and if he can overcome this post, he should be right there. (8) WILLYORWONTHE gets a significant driver change here and he is worth a look at a price. (5) MAXIMUSCLE is his own worst enemy, but he figures here if he can stay flat.

Race 3

(1) PRESCOTTS HOPE has been as good as any in his past two starts, he just needs a better trip. He should be a square price here so I'll give him the nod. (4) MODERN LEGEND came off an 18 1/2-month layoff and produced a sub-1:50 winning effort; respect his class and toughness. (3) NICKLE BAG will likely switch tactics here after getting hung out twice in a row. He isn't out of this. (6) ALEXAS JACKPOT is in very good form and he should take a slice here racing from close range.

Race 4

(2) IMSPORTY went too fast 26 2/5) in the third 1/4 last time, but that loss will boost his price here. He gets his regular driver back; slight nod. (3) WAZZUP WAZZUP fits well here and is a threat racing on or near the front. (6) BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL is another that fits here, but he is trip-dependent most of the time, so he is hard to love on top. (1) CASIMIR OVERDRIVE drops and moves inside; consider for exotics.

Race 5

(6) TRASHYTONGUETALKER has had late interest in both of his last two starts but he was poorly positioned. Perhaps he can work out a better trip here starting from the best post. (8) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT returns sporting a sharp qualifier and he fits well here; using. (2) AWESOMENESS went a remarkable trip from the 10-hole in defeat last time. He's another that merits multi-race consideration.

Race 6

(6) WANDA BAYAMA is a different mare racing for Larocque. I'll stick with her here despite the class jump. (7) MISS BABE DELIGHT ran into a bearcat last time and she was easily repelled. She should fare better vs. these. (3) MISS COCO LUCK rarely misses a check. She should take a slice here racing from close range. (2) TRUE REFLECTION drops slightly to a class where she should take a share.

Race 7

(1) ARTISTIC MADISON steps up off her best mile in more than a year. She is fast enough and classy enough to beat these when she is at the top of her game, which she appears to be now. (2) DELIGHTFUL HILL and (7) SAYITALL BB are obvious contenders dropping from the top class, but one or both could be overbet. (3) KIWI FOCUS showed grit and determination last time when repelling several challenges after being hung out a long way to make the front. She isn't impossible here, but this group is much tougher.

Race 8

(5) J JS DELIVERY paced a phenomenal mile on New Year's Day at Flamboro when making his first start off the claim. Jump on his bandwagon now while you can still get a square price. (2) PISTON BROKE will likely be a big chalk here coming off a sharp closing effort, but his being tagged sends mixed signals. (3) COOL ROCK can start a bit better here which would greatly improve his chances. (1) MACH ON THE BEACH can use another inside following trip to grab a share here.

Race 9

(3) THREEDEE DELIGHT A was game in defeat in her North American debut now she faces similar and she should be right there vs. these. (6) MUCH ADOO faces easier for her third start off a break and she should last longer this time. (5) MAPLELEA has found her best stride after a long dry spell; using. (7) REQUEST FOR PAROLE takes a sizable class drop here for which she merits consideration.

Race 10

(1) COMPANY MAN drops slightly and moves inside here. He should race closer to his start two back where he set a new life's mark. (4) VEGAS ROCKS went a big trip in defeat last time now he debuts for young trainer Gangell here; using. (6) ASAP HANOVER is in sharp form and he is hard to leave off the ticket considering his good tactical speed. (7) DOVUTO HANOVER can pass a few of these late and take a share making his first start in 4 months.

Race 11

(4) YORK SEELSTER debuts for Allard off a big win and it's reasonable to predict another win and another claim for him. (6) BRINGHOME THEBLUE was a solid winner when he returned home on December 12th. He looks like the main danger. (7) SHADOW MARGEAUX stayed game last time despite getting an impossible trip; consider for exotics at a price. (9) NEWBIE is worth a look debuting for Wallace.

Race 12

(9) JIMBELINA really hit her top stride in the Niagara series. She can take another here racing on or near the lead. (1) HOT SPOT HANOVER couldn't overcome a tough trip last time when 2nd to the choice. She should be closer here early which gives her a chance. (10) BERNADETTE should take a slice here, most likely by passing many of these late after taking back off the gate. (6) THREE DREAMS is a great one to use in the bottom exotics slots. (3) LADY JEN had a great record last year and she should kick off a new campaign by taking a share.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 1/7 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 70 - 231 / $339.00 (-$123.00)

BEST BETS: 9 - 19 / $26.40 (-$11.60)

Best Bet: NEXT OF CAM (2nd)

Spot Play: TITUS SEELSTER (4th)


Race 1

(8) CITY PIE was rolling to the front when he made an uncharacteristic break last Saturday. Veteran campaigner is clearly sitting on a win, though there is a small chance that he isn’t 100% physically. (3) MADIBA MAGIC N made a bold move at 60-1 last time and paid the price. The class drop tonight along with a smoother trip can make him very competitive. (1) BUCKEYE IN CHARGE moves to the inside and I wouldn’t be shocked if driver Pollio decided to get more aggressive.

Race 2

(7) NEXT OF CAM was out every step of the mile last week and still paced steadily through the wire. He should prove tough against a lackluster group. (1) WITCHITA draws well again and should stick close for his usual nice check in an exotic spot. (10) CHILLN MATISSE raced well with Lasix added last time and only needs a reasonable trip from post 10 to menace. (2) THINKIN BIG is better than what we saw in his career debut; equipment changes?

Race 3

(8) RING WARRIOR shouldn’t face too much road trouble on his way to the front this week. If he can steal a decent half, he won’t look back. (1) MR BIG LOAD bumps up a notch off a good second last time and seems likely to push away fast from the inside. (3) MAJOR BUBBLES N bested the former last time and merits a look, but I fear the price will be shorter than deserved. (9) AUTOBIOGRAPHICAL has a string of in-the-money finishes to his credit and was able to hit the board 26 times in 38 starts last year.

Race 4

(6) TITUS SEELSTER was used pretty hard last Saturday in his first start since late October. The speedy son of Artistic Fella should be tighter now and looking down the road. (9) HILLBILLY HANOVER drops again in search of form and gets a driver change to Brett Miller; dangerous. (8) DOWNTHEHIGHWY battled with the top pick early before fading a week ago. He can do better with a smoother trip. (7) JACKSRLUCKYTOO puts himself in a hole each week while trying to close from the back of the pack. He catches a tough field for this class and seems like an exotic player only.

Race 5

(8) K-LEES SHAKENBAKE was out-kicked a week ago for one of the few times in the last couple of years. With loads of potential early speed signed on to this race, he can make amends and roll to the front just before the wire. (3) BARIMAH A finally draws a more favorable post and that should give driver John Campbell more options. (7) SPEED AGAIN picked up some confidence while down in class last time. I can’t say I love him in this spot, but I also can’t toss him. (5) WAR-N-MUNN could save ground and rally for a nice piece; using underneath. (9) DREAMLANDS ART has the class and could get brave at any time.

Race 6

(1) PANFORMATIVE was a solid second at this level after three months off but took a leisurely tour of the track from another outside post versus tougher last time. I’d be very surprised if he didn’t show up with a strong effort from post one. (3) ALEXIE MATTOSIE steps up off a powerful win. Millionaire has the back class to climb the ladder. (6) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND was parked every step behind a rated pace and finished willingly with no shot in his last start. Seven-year-old loves this NW11500 level and I’d be using him if you get double digit value. (5) DIAL OR NODIAL qualified back full of pace but may still need a start to get up to speed. (4) MOONWRITER ships in from Dover and should fit with this group.

Race 7

This race kicks off the pick four and despite coming back to it three separate times, I’m having trouble narrowing down the contenders. Very few in here would surprise me if they won. (6) DURANT makes his second start for new connections and should get a decent pace to rally into. (8) WINTER BLUES comes off a solid effort and adds a catch-driver this week. (3) SO TAKE THAT took advantage of a quick pace and circled the field. He seems likely to be the favorite and I can’t get myself to accept a short price on him. (4) FLYING COWBOY is certainly fast enough to win and will be a healthy price; missed four weeks, though. (1) UNIX HANOVER has big speed and a better post to work with this time.

Race 8

I’m going to take a flyer with (2) MISTER TRUTH here. He is racing well but caught a much tougher field while up in class last time. With a clean trip he could pull off an upset. (4) SASSY HANOVER and (7) RUFO have dangerous early speed. If one of them gets away with cheap fractions, watch out. (1) GAMBLER’S TALE should get away close from the cones and have a chance if he brings his best game.

Race 9

(4) STOLEN GLIMPSE was written into the race on the AE condition. While he appears to be off form, it is worth noting that all three of his wins and another trio of his six seconds were record on big tracks. (2) BLATANTLY BEST and (1) FITZ’S Z TAM are both at a winning level from good posts in a race that seems to lack a ton of early speed. (6) DAVID’S DREAM has been racing well of late.

Race 10

(3) JETSKI LOUIE won two starts back and was hung for his life last time. Gelding is clearly in form now and the addition of Brett Miller should prove meaningful. (8) MR BLISSFULL should be on the move early and is in good enough shape to take them a long way. (2) LEGION OF BOOM comes off a sharp first over effort; worth using. (1) SHIFT RIGHT drops in for a $15k tag and could show a bit more.

Race 11

(6) SHOREVIEW started to leave but was wrestled back to last in his first start since mid September. He wound up last on the rim and finished up willingly with no real shot. I have a feeling we’ll see more tonight and the price should be right. (9) PICK WICK came up with a career best mile from post 10 last Saturday and should prove strong again. (1) DASH OF DANGER continues to roll out the wins and overcame an early break to do it last time; obvious threat. (4) THE LIMIT HANOVER comes off a second-place finish and seems like a potential player in the wide exotics.

Race 12

(1) ROCK STAR dropped back down last week but couldn’t get involved from the outside post. While he’s far from a standout in here, he can get the job done with a good trip. (10) ROCKIN ROBERT came up a bit short after three weeks on the sidelines. He can overcome this post. (4) ANNIESWESTERNCARD drops down for Ron Burke and must be considered. (6) PRINCE PALANI couldn’t handle the winner in his recent qualifier but dug in nicely for second.

Race 13

(5) JACKSON BRADY was a solid second behind an odds-on favorite despite starting from post 10 last week. Driver change to Callahan can only help his chances. (2) BETTOR BELIEVE IT and (3) MOVEOUTOFMYWAY are two sharp Saratoga shippers worth consideration. (4) I’M THE REAL MAJOR tends to race consistently and should have a chance at the tri or super.

 

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Spot Plays

For Saturday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (2nd) Stony Brook, 4-1
(9th) Blue Belt, 3-1


Delta Downs (6th) Sweet Pea Mama Ve, 3-1
(9th) Lotto Mary, 9-2


Fair Grounds (1st) Biblical Strength, 7-2
(8th) Broken Key, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (5th) Inner City, 7-2
(9th) Another Girl Alma, 8-1


Gulfstream Park (2nd) Gem Digger, 5-1
(10th) Sonic Mule, 6-1


Laurel (1st) Wagered, 4-1
(4th) Magician’scalendar, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (2nd) Team Halo, 4-1
(8th) Alertandlistening, 9-2


Parx Racing (2nd) Lucky Candy, 8-1
(4th) Bertranda, 3-1


Penn National (3rd) Little Fat Albert, 6-1
(6th) Empty Prize, 6-1


Santa Anita (5th) Empire Ruler, 6-1
(6th) Zinvor, 4-1


Sunland Park (6th) Storming Back, 9-2
(9th) California Song, 4-1


Tampa Bay Downs (2nd) Travel Required, 6-1
(9th) Testaruda, 7-2


Turf Paradise (3rd) Awe So Suite, 4-1
(6th) Bottle Dance, 6-1


Turfway Park (6th) Susie Bee, 3-1
(9th) Warrior Prince, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday’s six-pack

— Grizzlies 128, Warriors 119 OT— Golden State was up 20 in third quarter.

— Celtics 110, 76ers 106— Al Horford hit game-winning 3-ball from right corner.

— Monmouth 92, Iona 74— Surprisingly easy win for the Hawks.

— Dayton 67, Rhode Island 64— Preview of A-14 conference tourney final?

— Oakland 78, Valparaiso 66— Solid road win for the Golden Grizzlies.

— Wizards 112, timberwolves 105— Washington won/covered nine in row at home.