Saturday 1/7/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 7 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Baylor might still be known as a football school, but that program is a mess right now with all the off-field issues and coaching overhaul. It's time to call Baylor what it is: a basketball school. Both the men's and women's teams are No. 2 in the polls, and the men should rise to No. 1 on Monday -- thanks to Villanova's loss on Wednesday at Butler -- as long as the Bears can hold serve Saturday vs. Oklahoma State. Remember, that men's program was in deep trouble back in 2003 when Scott Drew was hired after one player murdered another and the head coach at the time, Dave Bliss, lied about it. Drew has done an amazing job and I'm still surprised no bigger basketball power has tried to lure him from Waco. Baylor has never been ranked No. 1.

Boston College at No. 8 Duke (-24)

A 2 p.m. ET start with no national TV, which might be a first for a Duke ACC game. Boston College was just terrible last year, going winless in the ACC. But the Eagles are definitely better this season with a quality nonconference win over Providence and beating Syracuse handily in their ACC opener to snap a 20-game conference losing streak. Alas, asking for back-to-back ACC wins was too much as BC fell 79-66 at Wake Forest on Tuesday. The Deacons scored 14 unanswered points over a span of 3:40 to take a 56-45 lead with 10 minutes left in the game. BC shot just 36.2 percent overall and was 5-for-30 from long range.

Duke begins life for the next month or so without Coach Mike Krzyzewski as he was set to have back surgery on Friday. Coach K caused quite a national stir on Wednesday when he brought back Grayson Allen from his "indefinite" suspension that lasted all of one game. That's patently ridiculous. But clearly Coach K wasn't going to suspend Allen for a month and he wasn't going to let interim coach Jeff Capel deal with all the media headaches for when Allen returned. So Krzyzewski fell on the sword, so to speak. The Blue Devils responded with their best game of the season, a 110-57 destruction of Georgia Tech. Allen had 15 points and seven assists. It was the first time Duke reached triple digits in an ACC game since 2009. Duke won by 17 at BC last year in the lone meeting.

Key trends: The Eagles are 4-13 against the spread in their past 17 road games . The Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their past seven vs. the ACC. BC is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings.

I'm leaning: BC as Duke might be looking ahead to No. 12 FSU on Tuesday.

Tennessee at No. 24 Florida ( -12 )

SEC matchup at 5:15 p.m. ET on ESPN2. I don't think Florida will ever win back-to-back National Championships again, but the Gators program might be back as an SEC contender and NCAA Tournament team -- UF hasn't made the Big Dance since 2014. Florida had solid nonconference wins over Seton Hall and Miami and close losses to Gonzaga and Florida State. Florida enters this one on a four-game winning streak after beating visiting Ole Miss 70-63 on Tuesday. Graduate transfer Canyon Barry, the son of Hall of Famer Rick Barry, tied a season high with 20 points off the bench. The Gators could look rather unusual for this one amidst reports they will debut all-black uniforms. They are sharp.

The Vols are 8-6 overall but have basically lost to every good team they have played, including Tuesday at home vs. Arkansas, 82-78. Robert Hubbs III bounced back from a season-low six points vs. Texas A&M with 21 vs. the Hogs. Freshman Grant Williams had his first career double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds. But Tennessee shot 39.1 percent compared to 50 percent for Arkansas. Also, UT is likely going to be without forward John Fulkerson the rest of the season it was learned this week. The 6-foot-7 freshman averaged 4.7 points and 4.6 rebounds in 10 games before breaking his wrist. He could still redshirt. Tennessee beat Florida 83-69 in the lone meeting last year.

Key trends: The Vols are 6-0 ATS in their past six road games. The Gators are 7-2 ATS in their past nine at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Florida.

Oklahoma State at No. 2 Baylor (-12)

Big 12 game at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNEWS. The Cowboys entered conference play at 10-2 but have started 0-2 in the Big 12 -- for the first time in a decade -- following an 82-79 loss at Texas on Wednesday. Oklahoma State led 39-37 at halftime but a Longhorns' 15-0 run gave Texas a 61-50 lead with 11:32 remaining in the game. OSU closed the gap to a single point with 6:57 remaining on a Phil Forte free throw, but that was as close as the Cowboys came. Jeffrey Carroll scored a career-high 24 points in the loss. Forte entered the night with the national lead in free-throw percentage with a clip of 97.8 percent but did miss one to end a streak of 25 in a row.

Baylor, the only unbeaten left along with Gonzaga, survived at home vs. Iowa State on Wednesday, 65-63. Manu Lecomte hit the winning baseline jumper with 8.6 seconds left. ISU guard Monte Morris came up short on a similar baseline jumper over Ishmail Wainright as the buzzer sounded. The Cyclones didn't score in the final 2:20. Johnathan Motley, one of the Big 12's best players, posted his third straight double-double and fifth of the season with 13 points and 12 rebounds for Baylor, which wasn't even ranked in the preseason Top 25 (not even a single vote). Baylor was 2-0 vs. Oklahoma State last season and has won nine of the past 10 at home in the series.

Key trends: OSU us 2-7 ATS in its past nine vs. the Big 12. Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its past eight. OSU is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 at Baylor.

I'm leaning: Baylor.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s games

Major trap game for Butler after they beat Villanova during week, now visits Georgetown team that is 0-3 in Big East for first time ever. Bulldogs won last three series games by 6-11-3 points, winning here in OT LY. Butler won five of last six games, all vs top 100 teams; they’re 1-2 in true road games, losing at Indiana St/St John’s by total of four points- their win was at Utah. Hoyas lost first three Big East games by 10-5-6 points; they’re 2-7 vs top 100 teams, 2-4 in games decided by 6 or less points.

Virginia Tech lost by 26 at NC State Wednesday despite going 13-30 on arc; they were down 25 at half, in letdown game after upsetting Duke at home. Hokies are 4-2 vs top 100 teams, 1-1 in true road games, with win at Michigan. Florida State won its first two ACC games by 16-2 points; they’ve won 10 games in row overall, four of them vs top 50 opponents. Virginia Tech swept Florida State by 10-11 points LY, after losing five of previous six games with FSU. Hokies lost last three visits to Tallahassee by 1-11-20 points.

Providence won its last five games with Creighton, sweeping Bluejays by 2-4 points LY; Creighton lost all three visits here, by 13-12-4 points. Friars are 10-0 at home, with best wins URI/Georgetown; they lost three of last four games overall, are 4-4 vs top 100 teams. Providence forces turnovers 21.9% of time (#35). Creighton is 3-0 in true road games, winning at Nebraska-ASU-St John’s, all by 11+ points; their only loss was by 10 at home to Villanova. Jays are shooting 42.4% on arc (#4); they’ve got #2 eFG% in country.

North Carolina is 25-3 in its last 28 games with NC State, 12-1 in games played here (State’s last win at UNC was two years ago). Tar Heels swept LY’s series by 12-12 points. Carolina is 7-2 vs top 100 teams; they get Pinson back here, making them deeper, but they need OT to beat Clemson and lost at Ga Tech before that, turning ball over 24.2% of time in two ACC tilts. State won seven of last 8 games; they’re 4-1 since big man Yurtseven became eligible; their last six wins were all by 21+ points. Wolfpack is 1-3 vs top 100 teams, though.

Notre Dame is 4-0 vs Clemson since joining ACC, winning by 4-14 in games played here; irish beat Pitt/Louisville by total of 8 points to open ACC play 2-0- 3-2 vs top 50 teams, with losses to Villanova/Purdue. Clemson lost OT game to UNC at home Wednesday; they’re 2-0 in true road games, winning by hoop at So Carolina, 5 at Wake Forest. Clemson is #28 experience team that forces turnovers 23% of time- they start three seniors. Irish are 10-0 at home; they’re #1 in country on foul line (84.4%). Clemson is 3rd-best team in country at not fouling.

This is only second true road game of year for Maryland, which won 76-75 at Georgetown back on Nov 15- they did win couple of neutral court games in NYC. Home side won all three Maryland-Michigan Big 14 games; Terrapins lost 70-69 here LY. Underdogs covered all three games. Michigan won four of last five games, splitting pair of 3-point decisions to open Big 14 play; they’re #67 experience team that is 4-4 vs top 100 teams while playing 5th-slowest tempo in country. Maryland lost last game at home by 2 to Nebraska, which ended game on 14-0 run.

Utah led 44-10 at halftime, hammered Arizona State 81-46 LY in Salt Lake City; think Bobby Hurley had this game circled on his schedule? Utes won last four series games, but are 1-3 in Tempe, with losses by 5-1-4 points. Home side won eight of last nine series games. Arizona State is 2-1 in Pac-12, with two wins by total of six points; they’re 7-1 if they score 80+ points, 2-6 if they don’t. Utah is 1-2 in true road games, losing by 8 at Xavier, 10 at Arizona; their one true road win was at Hawai’i.

Indiana lost its last three games, allowing 79.7 pts/game and is mentioned as a bubble team now; Hoosiers have #6 eFG% despite turning ball over 21.8% of time; they’re 2-4 vs top 100 teams, with wins over KansasUNC. Illinois won seven of last eight games, but lost by 25 at Maryland in only true road game this season- they’re 4-3 vs top 100 teams, start three seniors (#42 experience team). Indiana won its last three games with Illinois by 6-34-27 points; Illini lost last four visits here, by 3-13-10-34 points.

Vanderbilt scored 88 pts/game in winning its first two SEC games after a 6-6 pre-conference slate; Commodores are shooting 40.4% on arc, are 1-2 in true road games, winning at LSU, losing at Middle Tennessee/Dayton. Vanderbilt won its last three games with Alabama, by 8-7-8 points; they won three of last four visits to Tuscaloosa. Crimson Tide is 1-5 vs top 100 teams, with best win over #99 Arkansas State. Will crowd at Bama be down with lot of people in Tampa for Monday’s football game?

Baylor will be #1 in country for first time if they win this game; Bears are 14-0 with eight top 100 wins- they’ve got #8 eFG% defense in country. Baylor is 7-4 in its last 11 games with Oklahoma State, sweeping Cowboys by 12-4 points LY. OSU lost eight of last nine visits to Waco. OSU is 0-2 in Big X games, allowing 87 pts/game, after 10-2 pre-conference slate (#150); Cowboys are 2-2 in true road games, winning in Tulsa/Wichita, losing at Texas/Maryland by total of 4 points. OSU opponents have shortest possessions in country; Baylor’s have 5th-longest.

Cincinnati won its last five games, allowing 53 pts/game in winning first two AAC games by 6-36 points; Bearcats are are 2-1 in true road games, losing by 10 at Butler, winning at Iowa State and Temple. Cincinnati won five of last six games with Houston, losing 69-56 here LY; Bearcats had won by 1-10 points in previous two visits here. Cougars are 3-0 in AAC, allowing 54.3 pts/game in league play; they’re 12-3 vs schedule #257, are 2-1 vs top 100 teams, winning over UR, Vermont by total of six points, losing by 12 at Arkansas.

New Mexico is 7-0 at home this season, but mostly against stiffs; Lobos are 1-4 vs top 100 teams, with win at struggling San Diego State LW- they’re 2-1 in MW, with games decided by 4-5-6 points. Nevada-New Mexico split last four meetings, with two Wolf Pack wins by total of five points; they’re 0-3 in Albuquerque, losing by 13-14-12 points. Nevada beat Lobos 64-62 in MW tourney LY. Wolf Pack is 2-2 in true road games, losing at St Mary’s/Fresno; they’ve got road wins at Bradley/Washington- their last two games were decided by total of four points.

San Diego State is 0-2 in Mountain West, unusual territory for them; Aztecs aren’t shooting ball well, rebounding it well or creating turnovers- they scored 65.5 pts/game in losses by 6-3 points to open MW play. Boise State scored 78 pts/game in winning first three league games; they’re*1-2 in top 100 games, losing to Charleston/Oregon, beating SMU by 9. Boise won three of last four games with San Diego State; underdogs covered last five series games. Teams split last four series games played here.
*
Saturday’s tips
Arkansas State, -4

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview and Prediction: Youngstown State Penguins (12-3) at James Madison Dukes (13-1) and Prediction
By Randy Chambers

Saturday, January 7, 2016 at 12:00 pm (Toyota Stadium)
The Line: James Madison -2.5 -- Over/Under: 66
TV: ESPN2

The Youngstown State Penguins and James Madison Dukes meet Saturday afternoon in the FCS Championship at Toyota Stadium on ESPN2.

The Youngstown State Penguins enter this game on a six-game winning streak after beating Eastern Washington. The Youngstown State Penguins have a shot at their first FCS championship title. Hunter Wells is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,443 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Wells has six touchdown passes in his last three games. Alvin Bailey and Darien Townsend have combined for 968 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Jody Webb has 27 receptions. The Youngstown State Penguins ground game is averaging 257.5 yards per contest, and Webb leads the way with 1,301 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Youngstown State is allowing 19.4 points and 324.5 yards per game. Armand Dellovade leads the Youngstown State Penguins with 98 tackles, Derek Rivers has 14 sacks and LeRoy Alexander has four interceptions.

The James Madison Dukes enter this game on an 11-game winning streak after beating North Dakota State. The James Madison Dukes look for their second national title and first since the 2004 CFB season. Bryan Schor is completing 73.6 percent of his passes for 2,890 yards, 27 touchdowns and six interceptions. Schor has three games of four or more touchdown passes. Brandon Ravenel and Terrence Alls have combined for 1,295 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns while Domo Taylor has 34 receptions. The James Madison Dukes ground game is averaging 284.5 yards per contest, and Khalid Abdullah leads the way with 1,708 yards and 20 touchdowns. Defensively, James Madison is allowing 21.7 points and 348 yards per game. Gage Steele leads the James Madison Dukes with 98 tackles, Martez Stone has four sacks and Raven Greene has six interceptions.

The James Madison Dukes have been the most consistent team in the FCS this season and are fresh off pulling off the impossible, which is beating North Dakota State on the road in a playoff game. James Madison's only loss this season was a road game against North Carolina and has an offense that's sure to give Youngstown State issues. The Youngstown State Penguins can give up points, as they've allowed 23 or more points in five of their last seven games. The James Madison Dukes are argubaly the most balanced offensive team in the FCS.

Give me the Dukes to win the FCS Championship.

RANDY'S PICK

James Madison -2.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Falcons QB Ryan tops All-Pro team
By The Sports Xchange

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan beat out New England's Tom Brady on the Associated Press 2016 NFL All-Pro Team announced Friday.
Ryan's selection could be a possible indication for league MVP, which will be announced at the NFL honors show on Feb. 6.
Ryan earned his first All-Pro selection after throwing for a franchise-record 4,944 yards, completing 69.9 percent of his passes, with 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions for the 11-5 Falcons. He had a passer rating of 117.1 -- a league and career high.
Three rookies were among 17 first-time selections highlighting the All-Pro Team, including Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott and Kansas City speedster Tyreek Hill, who is a unanimous choice as a punt returner. Tennessee Titans right tackle Jack Conklin is the other rookie making the team.

--The Indianapolis Colts are bringing back head coach Chuck Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson for the 2017 season, according to multiple reports.
Colts owner Jim Irsay decided to keep the coach-GM duo despite the Colts missing the playoffs for a second straight year. The Colts finished with back-to-back 8-8 seasons.
Pagano, who has a 49-31 record in five seasons with the Colts, convinced Irsay a year ago that he deserved a four-year extension. Grigson received a three-year extension after the 2015 season and both are currently under contract through the 2019 season.
Pagano led the Colts to the playoffs in each of his first three seasons, including reaching the AFC Championship Game in the 2014 season.

--The Houston Texans officially ruled out quarterback Tom Savage with a concussion for Saturday's AFC wild-card playoff game against the Oakland Raiders.
Outside linebacker John Simon (chest) also was ruled out on Friday's injury report for the Texans (9-7). Houston is expected to again use Akeem Dent at outside linebacker in place of Simon, who originally was injured in a Week 11 loss to the Raiders in Mexico City on Nov. 21.
Texans coach Bill O'Brien earlier this week named Brock Osweiler as the starter over Savage, who sustained a concussion in last Sunday's loss to the Tennessee Titans. Savage has not yet cleared the NFL's concussion protocol.
For the Raiders (12-4), left tackle Donald Penn (knee) and Nate Allen (concussion) were officially ruled out.

--Detroit Lions linebacker DeAndre Levy was listed as questionable for Saturday night's NFC wild-card playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks.
Levy missed 11 games this year with various injuries before returning for the final four games of the season. He was limited in practice this week with a knee injury.
Center Travis Swanson (concussion), offensive tackle Riley Reiff (hip) and returner/wide receiver Andre Roberts (shoulder) also were listed as questionable for the Lions (9-7). They were limited participants in Friday's practice.
For the Seahawks (10-5-1), running back C.J. Prosise (shoulder) and defensive tackle Tony McDaniel (concussion) were officially ruled out.

--Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Ladarius Green remains in the NFL's concussion protocol and is questionable for Sunday's wild-card playoff game against the Miami Dolphins.
Green, who suffered the concussion during the Week 15 game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec. 18, missed Friday's practice for the AFC North champion Steelers (11-5).
Steelers linebacker Anthony Chickillo (ankle) and defensive end Ricardo Mathews (ankle) were both ruled out for the game on Friday's injury report. Linebacker Vince Williams (shoulder) and safety Robert Golden (ankle) were listed as questionable.
For the Dolphins, cornerback Byron Maxwell did not practice Friday and was listed as doubtful with an ankle injury. He missed the last two regular-season games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping the AFC

Who Will Come Out On Top In The AFC?

Now that the entire NFL regular season has finally concluded, it's time for bettors to shift their attention to which teams they believe will make a deep playoff run and hopefully cash in on that success at the same time.

The six-team field in the AFC is filled with QB question marks for multiple teams, meaning that the conference is rather top heavy (NE, KC, Pitt) and the class of the conference all season long – New England – enter the playoffs as the heavy favorites to make it to the Super Bowl.

Will Tom Brady and Bill Belichick get to their 7th Super Bowl appearance together, or will somebody else go up to Foxborough and claim the AFC as their own?

AFC Champions Odds:

New England (-200), Kansas City (+425), Pittsburgh (+425), Houston (+4000), Miami (+5000), Oakland (+6500)

Oakland Raiders (+6500) fans have to be kicking themselves right now for what could have been this year had QB Derek Carr not gotten hurt in Week 16. The Raiders are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002, but without Carr at the helm and likely down to 3rd string rookie QB Connor Cook for their Wildcard game, it's no surprise the Raiders are the biggest longshot to make it out of the AFC. The future is bright in Oakland though, and even if they are able to get out of their trip to Houston next week with a W, they don't have the experience or talent at QB anymore to make the run all the way through this gauntlet.

Miami (+5000) is in a similar boat with backup QB Matt Moore at the controls, although there is a chance we see Ryan Tannehill try to give it a go again. But opening up their playoffs in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that has top tier weapons at every skill position and a defense that is a throwback to prior Steelers championship teams this century is likely too much to overcome. Just looking at the opening point spread of Pittsburgh -10 for that Wildcard game tells you all you need to know about Miami's chances of going all the way, never mind the fact that they'll have to head up to New England to face a Patriots team they were 0-2 SU against should they even get by the Steelers.

Houston (+4000) is the third team on this list with QB concerns, and while their defense is among the best in the league, even if they are able to take care of business at home vs the Raiders in the Wildcard round, putting up the points necessary to beat the top three seeds in this conference likely won't happen. History isn't on the Texans side either being the host city for Super Bowl 51. No team hosting the Super Bowl has ever made it to the big game, and while that streak will eventually be broken, it won't be the Texans this season.

That leaves us with the top three seeds in the conference who are all prohibitive favorites to represent the AFC. There isn't much else to be said about the Patriots who lead the pack in a big way at -200 odds, and there has already been plenty of support their way shown by bettors. New England has dominated basically every opponent they've faced from the AFC since Brady came back and with the path to Super Bowl 51 going through their stadium they deserve to be the heavy favorites.

But at -200, there really is no value in backing New England with a wager here, especially when you can grab plus-money odds (+160) on them to win it all. Essentially that's taking the Pats here and to win one more game, so if New England is the team your research and handicapping methods has settled on, going about it that way is the better betting option. It also provides you with significant hedging opportunities for Super Bowl 51 should New England do as expected and get to the big game.

In terms of combining value with probability, taking the Pittsburgh Steelers at +425 is the best betting option for an AFC winner. Yes, the Steelers don't have the advantage of getting a week off like the Chiefs do, but I've already touched on them being the heavy favorites vs. Miami in a revenge game for Pittsburgh. The Steelers are a much different team then the one that lost 30-15 in South Beach in mid-October this year and going into Kansas City a week later – who they beat 43-14 in primetime this year doesn't pose a significant threat.

Also, the fact that while Pittsburgh's route to the Super Bowl will have to go through New England if the seedings hold, not having to deal with the Patriots until the AFC Championship is a distinct advantage it has over all the longshots. QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense can put up 25+ points on anyone in this league and when you can score like they can you'll always have a chance. They'll use that offensive talent to run away from Kansas City in the Divisional Round, and holding a ticket on Pittsburgh at +425 to go into New England and beat the Patriots in a Championship game isn't a bad place to be as a bettor.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping the NFC

Who Will Come Out On Top In The NFC?

While the AFC appears to be a three-horse race between the Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the favored New England Patriots, the NFC is much more wide open with strong arguments to be made for at least five of the six playoff teams being able to go the distance.

The one outlier their is the 6th seeded Detroit Lions who slumped down the stretch and were arguably very luck to get to 9 wins given how many fourth quarter deficits they overcame.

The Lions will have to go through the best of the best, beginning with Seattle, to reach the Super Bowl and it's tough to see that happening.

So which of the other five NFC teams should you consider to make futures bets on to reach Super Bowl 51?

NFC Champions Odds:

Dallas Cowboys (+150), Atlanta Falcons (+350), Green Bay Packers (+350), Seattle Seahawks (+550), New York Giants (+900), Detroit Lions (+4500)

Starting at the top with #1 seed Dallas, the Cowboys are in prime position to get back to the big game for the first time since the mid-1990's. When they had their starters on the field they beat everyone they faced not named the New York Giants and you know the Cowboys would love to avoid all the media attention and questions they'll get should those two division rivals meet for Round 3.

It's a very realistic possibility too as a Giants win over Green Bay and Detroit loss to Seattle in the Wildcard round would mean the Cowboys open up their playoffs vs. Big Blue and the talks of them being “one and done” would drive the organization mad all week leading up to the game.

Aside from that though, the fact that no rookie starting QB has ever been to a Super Bowl in the history of the NFL doesn't bode well for the Cowboys either. Dak Prescott has been phenomenal for Dallas all year long, but the NFL playoffs are a different beast then the regular season and as good as he's been, he might not be fully prepared for what the playoffs will bring. History is not something to take lightly here and with odds of just +150, bettors should look elsewhere for this futures bet.

The New York Giants (+900) are the #5 seed and will have a tough road themselves to get to the big game. The Giants will likely have to win three road games to get to Super Bowl 51 and beat some very good teams along the way. But it's not like they haven't done that before as their 2007 Championship team started out as the #5 seed (Dallas was also #1 that year).

They went into Tampa and beat the Bucs, knocked off Dallas in the Divisional round, and beat Green Bay in the NFC Championship game before beating the undefeated New England Patriots. That was Eli Manning's first Super Bowl victory and the path in 2016 is eerily similar with trips to Green Bay and Dallas the likely first two stops on their potential run.

Yet, for the Giants to make that run, their offense has to get hot and put up many more points then they have been doing of late. It's been five straight games for New York of scoring less then 20 points and no matter how good of a defense they've got, that type of offensive production won't cut it to go all the way. It's not like they don't have strong offensive weapons at their disposal though and they are definitely a team nobody wants to see in the playoffs – especially the Cowboys.

Green Bay (+350) gets the first crack at knocking off Eli Manning and company and there has been no hotter team then the Packers the final two months of the season. That run of six straight wins to win the NFC North prompted a lot of bettors to support the Packers in these playoffs, as ESPN reported they are the most heavily bet team in terms of ticket count to win Super Bowl 51.

That's all well and good, but astute bettors may note that information as a “kiss of death” for Green Bay's chances. Yet, there is no denying they've got one of the best QB's in the game and as long as their defense can hold strong, a run to at least the NFC Championship isn't out of the question.

Atlanta (+350) is the relative newcomer to the postseason this year as the #2 seed and with the highest scoring offense in the league (33.8/game) by a wide margin, they'll never really be out of a game.

The concern with Atlanta is on defense, but getting to play all of their potential playoff games indoors only helps that offense's ability to rack up the points. They are a nightmare to cover and if they are going to get knocked off it will likely be in a shootout. Yet, it's those concerns on defense that has many bettors overlooking the Falcons chances this season and that may be a mistake.

QB Matt Ryan is the favorite to win the MVP and if Atlanta can continually put up 30+ points on their foes, it puts so much pressure on those opponents to keep up. At +350, there is quite a bit of value in a team that not many are seriously considering.

That leaves us with Seattle (+550) as the Seahawks get to host the Lions in the Wildcard round and see what happens from there. However, Seattle has been one of the most inconsistent teams in this playoff field this year and most of their struggles came on the road. Seattle was just 3-4-1 SU away from home in 2016 and they'll have to win at least one road contest (probably two) if they want to return to the Super Bowl.

But limping to the finish line with a narrow win over sub-par San Francisco and losing to Arizona by three and getting blown out in Green Bay suggests the Seahawks championship window with this core might be shut. Not having S Earl Thomas back there as the emotional leader and dominant force that he is on that defense also hurts Seattle's chances of making a run.

Summing it all up, there are some good betting options here and they do depend on what you weigh more heavily. Atlanta (+350) is a team that should be considered no matter what as the #2 seed that can shoot the lights out of the scoreboard on anyone.

Dallas (+150) is another organization worth a small wager if you are looking to buck history and unconcerned about value, but it's really the winner of the Green Bay/NY Giants game that could end up making the most noise.

Depending on who you like to come out on top there, a wager on that prospective winner is worth serious consideration. You'll see who I prefer there in a second, but adding that winner with Atlanta should minimize exposure while also getting at least one team in the NFC Championship at worst.

My Picks to win the NFC: Atlanta (+350), and the New York Giants (+900)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - WC
By Marcus DiNitto

With the NFL playoffs upon us, here are the opening point spreads and totals for wild-card weekend, as well as insight from two prominent Las Vegas oddsmakers – John Avello at the Wynn and Chris Andrews at the South Point.

Numbers listed are the Vegas consensus as of about 5:00 p.m. ET on Monday, with differences among books and early moves also noted.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-3/-120, 36.5), Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET

Both teams are unsettled at quarterback five days before kickoff, and neither of their alternatives will make bettors comfortable. In Houston, Brock Osweiler is expected to start over the injured Tom Savage (concussion). Oakland’s preferred starter, Matt McGloin, injured his shoulder in Sunday’s loss at Denver, so the Raiders may be looking to rookie Connor Cook.

Early money was on the Texans. The South Point opened Houston -2.5 and was bet up to -3.5 on Monday. Other shops went from -3 even to -3 (-120).

The ‘under’ also drew early interest, bet from 37.5 to 36.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Andrews believes there is a significant difference between McGloin and Cook.

“I’ve heard a lot of people say there isn’t, but I think there is (a difference). It would be Cook’s very first start. I know (Houston is) not the toughest playoff opponent, but still it’s an NFL team with NFL coaches, and they’re going to throw a lot of stuff at the kid who’s never been on the field before.”

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 42.5), Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Bettors laid Seattle -7 at the South Point, where the line was moved to -7.5 during Monday wagering. Some shops opened 7.5 and moved to 8, and the Wynn opened at the higher number.

The total hovers between 42 and 43.

After a run of eight wins in nine games, the Lions stepped up in class for their last three, and it didn’t go well. They lost and failed to cover at the Giants, at the Cowboys and home Sunday night vs. the Packers. Now, they travel to Seattle to face a Seahawks team that is loaded with playoff pedigree and rarely loses at home.

“Detroit lost a game (Sunday) night that they were more prepared for than any game this year and it was at home and they didn’t get there,” Avello said. “Now they’ve gotta go on the road, and they haven’t won a playoff game in many years. Seattle has one loss at home this year, a handful of losses (there) over the last four or five years. It’s just a difficult spot for the Lions.”

Andrew suspects the injury to Matt Stafford’s finger is worse than the Lions are letting on, but he’s concerned about Seattle’s current form and gives Detroit a chance Saturday night.

“I don’t like the way Seattle is playing right now and they’re laying a big number,” Andrew said. “… I think (the Lions) can cover, and once you’re saying that, I think they have a decent shot at winning the game. As bad as Detroit’s been the last couple of weeks, they have a chance because Seattle’s not at their peak.”

If you’re on board with Andrews’ thinking, you may want to wait to place your bet.

“This number is going to go higher,” Avello said. “I think this number is going to go to 9 maybe. I don’t know who’s interested in the Lions right now.”

Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 47), Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

While multiple Vegas bet shops, including the South Point, opened Pittsburgh -9.5 and moved to -10, Andrews said it wasn’t big action that prompted him to change his number.

Both Andrews and Avello are anticipating teaser action on the Steelers.

“If they want to get down to the 3, I’m going to make them pay for it,” Andrews said.

Added Avello, “There could be some straight-bet action on Miami, but the bulk of the action on all bets will be on the Steelers.”

The Dolphins were seven-point underdogs at home against Pittsburgh back in Week 6, and they won straight-up, 30-15. Ryan Tannehill went 24-for-32 for 252 yards in that game but did not throw a touchdown pass. Jay Ajayi carried the load, rushing for 204 yards and two TDs.

Matt Moore has been decent in relief of the injured Tannehill, with an 8 TD/3 INT ratio in his three recent starts.

Besides the win over Pittsburgh, though, Avello isn’t impressed with the 10-6 Dolphins’ resume.

“They didn’t beat one good team this year, except for Pittsburgh,” Avello said.

New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 44.5), Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET

The spread on this game ranged from Green Bay -4 to -5 across Las Vegas on Monday, bet from 4.5 to 4 at the South Point.

Green Bay was a seven-point favorite against the Giants when these teams met at Lambeau Field on a Sunday night in early October, the game ending in a push, 23-16.

The Packers are rolling into the playoffs, closing the regular season with six straight wins, but the Giants are a formidable opponent.

“Green Bay is confident right now, but with all that confidence, they’re going against a team that knows the playoffs, that has performed very well as of late defensively,” Avello said.

The Eli Manning-led Giants have won two playoff games at Lambeau, in 2007 and 2011. They went on to win the Super Bowl both of those years.

This time around, the Giants have a factor the Packers didn’t have to worry about then.

“The Packers are going to have their hands full with Odell Beckham,” Avello said. “They weren’t able to cover the Lions receivers (Sunday), and they’re not going to cover Beckham. I think the Giants could have a big day...I think the game is close to the end, and maybe the last team with the ball wins the football game. “

Andrews sees this game as “strength against strength: the Giants defense, which has really been playing well, against the Packers offense, which is always going to be dangerous with Rodgers.

“I’m not sure who I like. I think 4 is probably a pretty decent number. I give the Packers a pretty good home-field advantage. But defense tends to travel better than offense, so I think they’re going to have their hands full...I think either team coming out of here is going to be pretty live the following week.”

 

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Wiseguys are advising that these NFL wild-card lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Green Bay (-3.5)

Since mid-October the Giants have been one of the best teams in the league, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. The surge started, coincidentally, after New York went into Lambeau and laid an egg in Week 5 – being held without a touchdown until late in the game and passing for only 178 yards against a Packers defense that gives up 270 yards per game through the air. NY’s problem is that the Packers are also playing better. The NFC North champs come in with six straight wins (three of which came against playoff teams), and the Packers have scored more than 30 points in each of their last four games. This one could tilt toward the Giants if they can get to Aaron Rodgers, but NY was just middle of the pack in total team sacks this season (34). With equal money on both teams, the 3.5 line is unlikely to budge.


Game to wait on

Miami at Pittsburgh (-10)

Early betting has favored the Dolphins, with the public perhaps thinking that any time a playoff team is getting double-digits, it’s worth a sniff. Yes, Miami did look awful against the Patriots in their final regular-season game – but the Patriots (8-0 on the road this season) tend to do that to opponents. And Pittsburgh’s defense is nowhere near as good as New England’s, so Miami should at least be able to move the ball against the Steelers’ mediocre D. Pittsburgh will no doubt be game-planning all week in an effort to prevent a repeat of their Oct. 16 game in Miami, when Jay Ajayi went off for 204 yards and Miami won easily. There are rumblings that starting QB Ryan Tannehill might be back for this one, and there might not be a decision until late in the week, or even just prior to kickoff. So unless you’re a huge Matt Moore fan, it might be a good idea to hang on for a bit before wagering.


Total to watch

Oakland at Houston (37)

Anyone with a spare quarterback is asked to contact the Raiders or Texans immediately. Oakland is down to QB No. 3 (rookie Connor Cook) after Sunday’s injury to backup Matt McGloin. Houston is somewhat better off, with backup Tom Savage apparently OK after suffering a head injury on Sunday. Oddsmakers don’t figure any QB will light it up too much this weekend and have set one of the lowest totals of the year. One book has the number as low at 36.5, which is unheard of in today’s NFL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Giants at Packers best matchup as opening lines released for wild-card weekend
By PATRICK EVERSON

It took until the final minutes of the final game of the regular season, late Sunday night, but the seedings and the matchups are all set for wild-card weekend next Saturday and Sunday. We talk with Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports for the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, about the opening lines on the quartet of postseason contests.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (Open: -2.5; Move: -3)

Oakland went into its regular-season finale at Denver with a chance to get the AFC’s No. 1 seed, stick at the No. 2 seed or drop to the No. 5 seed. The Raiders, minus star quarterback Derek Carr (broken leg), ended up with the worst of those scenarios. New starter Matt McGloin was hurt in the first half Sunday, rookie Connor Cook finished it out, and Oakland never got going in a 24-6 loss as a 1-point underdog.

So a team that went 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) will be on the road as a wild card against AFC South champion Houston, in a 4:35 p.m. Eastern kickoff on Saturday.

The Texans (9-7 SU, 6-9-1 ATS) lost to Tennessee 24-17 as a 3-point road ‘dog Sunday. Despite that loss – along with that of new starting QB Tom Savage to a first-half concussion, putting erstwhile starter Brock Osweiler back on the field – the Texans opened -2.5 at the Superbook and were quickly bet up to 3 late Sunday night.

“Oakland looks defeated, but we’ve seen this Texans team lose this game before,” Kornegay said, alluding to last year’s wild-card round, in which host Houston got blown out by Kansas City 30-0 catching 3 points.


Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (Open: -7; Move: -7.5)

Seattle alternated SU wins and losses over the last seven weeks, but it was still enough to win the NFC West and earn the No. 3 seed. On Sunday, the Seahawks (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) erased an early 14-3 deficit to lowly San Francisco and held on for a 25-23 victory as a hefty 11.5-point road chalk.

Detroit could have been that No. 3 seed, or at least the No. 4 seed, were it not for an 0-3 SU and ATS skid to end the regular season. On Sunday night, in that aforementioned final game, the Lions fell to Green Bay 31-24 as a 3.5-point home pup. That dropped the Lions (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) to the No. 6 seed as a wild card.
Much like the Texans line, this one went up a half-point shortly after it was posted, to Seattle -7.5 for Saturday’s 8:15 p.m. Eastern matchup.

“Detroit looks like Oakland, except they still have their starting quarterback,” Kornegay said, while noting the Seahawks’ inconsistent play of late. “Seattle isn’t the team we’ve seen before. The Seahawks are definitely vulnerable.”


Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers (Open: -9.5; Move -10)

Pittsburgh is arguably the hottest team in the NFL right now, along with AFC No. 1 seed New England and perhaps Green Bay. The Steelers (11-5, 9-6-1) were 4-5 in mid-November, but haven’t lost since then, ripping off seven consecutive wins (5-1-1 ATS). In Sunday’s meaningless finale, Pittsburgh rested Ben Roethlisberger and fell behind Cleveland 14-0, but rallied for a 27-24 overtime victory to push as a 3-point home favorite.

Miami (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made a 7-1 SU run to clinch a wild-card spot after Week 16, then got blasted by New England in Week 17, losing 35-14 as a 7.5-point home pup. The Superbook expects it to be tough sledding to draw Miami money this week, even with the high opening number for Sunday’s 1 p.m. Eastern kick.

“I might have to give out a free beer with every Dolphins bet to attract money on them,” Kornegay said. “I stocked up and have my 12-pack ready!”


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (Open -4.5; Move: -3.5)

Several weeks ago, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers intimated his 4-5 team could win out. Then the Packers did just that. On Sunday, the Pack completed a 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS surge by beating Detroit 31-24 giving 3.5 points on the road to clinch the NFC North crown at 10-6 SU (9-6-1 ATS).

Meanwhile, New York went on an 8-1 SU spree (7-2 ATS) from mid-October to mid-December. The Giants (11-5 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) slipped up at Philadelphia in Week 16, but with nothing on the line Sunday, they capped the season with a 19-10 victory at Washington as a 9-point underdog.

“Best matchup of wild-card weekend could be a doozy,” Kornegay said of this 4:30 p.m. Eastern Sunday clash. “The Giants have a lot of confidence going into Green Bay. The Packers will have to overcome injuries to defensive backs (Quinten Rollins, Makinton Dorleant). This will no doubt be the most popular game at the betting windows.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Wildcard Round'

Sharpen pencils, post season games are among the most difficult to handicap. Oddsmakers have only a few games to create a line instead of the usual sixteen, so count on point spreads being pretty tight in these WIN-And-Move-On games.

That's confirmed by our reliable NFL database that tells us over the past five years during Wild Card Weekend 'Favorites' have covered the point spread 10 times, 'Underdogs' got the money 8 times with 2 'Push'. Taking a long-term view, much the same. In ten years,' Favorites' covered the point spread 19 times, 'Underdogs' 19 and 2 'Push'.

During the past five years, road teams off a loss heading into a hostile venue during the Wild Card Round have been bad bets posting a 2-5 record against the betting line. (Dolphins, Lions, Raiders)

Total gamblers have enjoyed success in the Wild Card Round as these contests have a tendency to play 'Under' posted totals. In the past ten years there has been 15 'Over', 24 'Under', 1 'Push' with short-term trends on the same path with 6 'Over', 13 'Under', 1 'Push'.

When handicapping this years participants keep these betting nuggets in mind. Since the 2006 campaign Dolphins are 0-1 SU/ATS, 0-1 O/U in this round, Steelers 1-3 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-1-1 O/U. Lions are 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U, Seahawks 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U. Giants are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS, 0-3 O/U, Packers 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 2-3 O/U. Texans 2-1 SU/ATS, 1-2 O/U, Raiders haven't been to the postseason since the 2002 season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Wild Card Notes

Saturday, January 7, 2017

NFC – Oakland at Houston – 4:35 p.m. (ESPN)

Opening Line (1/2/17): Houston -2, 37
Current Line (1/3/17): Houston -3 ½, 36 ½

Oakland Road Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS
Houston Home Record: 7-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 11 from Mexico City and the Raiders rallied for a 27-20 victory over the Texans as 6 ½-point favorites. Houston controlled the clock and outgained Oakland but the defense surrendered two big touchdowns (75, 35) in the fourth quarter. Including that result, the Raiders have won and covered three of the last five meetings while the ‘over’ has gone 4-1 during this span.

Playoff Notes: Houston owns an all-time 2-3 record in the playoffs and the two wins came at home. Last season, the Texans were blanked 30-0 in the first round of the playoffs. Oakland hasn’t made a trip to the postseason since 2003 when they finished with a 48-21 loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl XXXVII. Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio owns a 1-2 career mark in the playoffs and his team (Jaguars) allowed 31, 29 and 28 points in those losses.

Total Notes: Oakland watched the ‘under’ close the season on a 3-1 run after the ‘over’ started with an eye opening 10-2 mark. Surprisingly, the Raiders scoring defense has been better on the road (21.3 PPG) than at home (27.6 PPG) this season. Oakland has watched total produce a stalemate (4-4) outside of the Bay Area. The Texans closed the season with a 4-1-1 ‘under’ run and the lone ‘over’ came in Week 17 with a couple meaningless cores. Houston leaned to the ‘under’ (9-6-1) this season and that included a 6-2 mark at home, which was helped with a great scoring defense (16.6 PPG).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Wild Card Notes

Saturday, January 7, 2017

NFC – Detroit at Seattle – 8:15 p.m. (NBC)

Opening Line (1/2/17): Seattle -7 (-120), 44
Current Line (1/3/17): Seattle -8, 42 ½

Detroit Road Record: 3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS
Seattle Home Record: 7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS

Head-to-Head: Seattle nipped Detroit 13-10 in 2015 and never came close to covering as a 9 ½-point home favorite. The Seahawks were fortunate to win as the Lions fumbled on the Seattle one-yard line with less than two minutes left in the game. The teams met in the 2012 season from Ford Field and Detroit rallied for a 28-24 victory at home as Matthew Stafford (352 yards, 3 TDs) outdueled Russell Wilson (236 yards, 2 TDs).

Playoff Notes: Detroit hasn’t won a playoff game since 1992 and is 0-2 in two appearances with Stafford under center. Both of those setbacks came on the road despite the Lions scoring 20 and 28 points. The Seahawks are 7-3 in the playoffs under Wilson but only 4-5-1 versus the point-spread. The team has gone 4-0 with him at CenturyLink Field but only managed to cover one of those games. The ‘over’ has gone 6-4 during this span and the ‘Hawks have scored 23 or more points in their four home games.

Total Notes: Detroit was 10-6 to the ‘under’ this season, 5-3 both at home and on the road. The Lions started the season with a 4-2 ‘over’ run before eight straight ‘under’ tickets. The defense was on fire during that span (16.5 PPG) but surrendered 42 and 31 the last two weeks and those efforts resulted in ‘over’ winners. Seattle’s defense was also suspect down the stretch, allowing 34 and 23 in Week 16 and 17 and that produced a pair of ‘over’ tickets as well. Seattle was 9-7 to the ‘over’ which includes a 5-3 mark at home. The Seahawks offense averaged nearly two touchdowns more at CenturyLink Field (28.4 PPG) than they did on the road (15.9 PPG) this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Wild-Card Weekend lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Wild-Card schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-3.5, 36.5)

This line indicates a Houston win of 20-17. This is a tough game to dissect as Oakland’s success or failure lands on third-string shoulders that are unproven and have little track record.

What we do know is that Houston does not score much and both teams have good defenses. Most of the betting public gets scared of going Under in general but there are reasons a total is very low. Most times, it’s due to inclement weather. However, Houston failed to score 37 points in four of its past six games overall. Facing an Oakland team that failed to score 37 points in its last three road games overall, sends a strong trending flag where we are going with this one.

I made this total closer to 34 or 35. Our only hesitation here would be unwanted defensive bombs (fumbles and interceptions turning into immediate scores) but they’re usually far and few and we just can’t count on those.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 42.5)

We we find another game that will favor the bookmaker over the bettor in this one.

Seattle’s inconsistencies have bettors wondering which team is going to show up: the one we know, or the one that’s been playing the past 16 games? That observation alone has wondering why the spread is so high. I made this no higher than -7.

Seattle has lost four of its past six against the spread with the only caveat being that the Seahawks pretty much knew they were going to win this rather weak division well in advance. But being able to just flick a switch on, particularly when you are playing a quality team playing for their lives, seems like a stretch here.

Detroit did not finish well but in its defense the Lions did play some tough teams (Giants, Cowboys, Packers) with the first two on the road. Bettors aren’t asking them to win here, they’re just asking them to hang around. And with +8 (and even +8.5 out there) we liken this battle of two standout defenses to keep this under control. Detroit backers should take the visitors with as many points as you can get and maybe – just maybe - we could see the first upset of the playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wildcard edition
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup and the playoffs are no different.

Here are the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Wildcard weekend:

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-4, 36.5)

Raiders' strong first-half D vs. Texans' rough offensive starts

The Raiders and Texans do battle this weekend in a game even the most die-hard NFL fans are having a hard time getting jazzed about. Neither team is playing particularly well at the moment, with the Raiders having stumbled into the postseason on the tide of a 24-6 loss to the Denver Broncos and the Texans having prevailed in one of the worst divisions in football. But if season trends continue, Oakland should find itself in great shape at the half - which could spell disaster for favored Houston.

The Raiders did a lot of things well in what was a breakout season for the perennial AFC doormat, and first-half scoring defense is surprisingly near the top of that list. While Oakland coughed up 17 first-half points in last week's uninspiring loss in Denver, that still wasn't enough to knock the Raiders out of the top-10 in points allowed prior to the half (10.6). Six of the nine teams ahead of them are also in the postseason, so they find themselves in great company despite their late-season struggles.

As for the Texans, they were downright miserable in the first halves of games over the course of the regular season (and yes, you can probably blame quarterback Brock Osweiler for most of that.) No team in the NFL managed fewer first half points per game than Houston (7.6), thanks to a three-game season-closing stretch in which the Texans managed a total of five points prior to half. If Oakland gets up early, the Texans might not have the firepower to make a game of it.

Daily fantasy fade: RB Lamar Miller


Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 43)

Lions' third-down D struggles vs. Seahawks' drive shutdowns

Welcome back to the postseason, Detroit! Enjoy your road tilt against a Seattle team that boasts one of the top home-field advantages in sports. The Lions are certainly in tough having to travel three time zones to face Seattle, but that might not even be the worst of their problems. Detroit was one of the worst teams in the NFL during the season when it came to keeping opponents from extending drives, and they're facing a Seahawks unit that was far stingier on third downs.

Detroit generated plenty of early-season buzz thanks to an elite passing offense led by quarterback Matthew Stafford. But the defense never did get untracked, particularly on third down. The Lions allowed opponents to convert an alarming 45.5 percent of their third-down situations into first downs or TDs, ahead of only the Washington Redskins (46.6%). That number climbed thanks to a 50-percent opponent conversion rate over the final three games of the season, worst in the NFL over that span.

Seattle wasn't exactly a world-beater in the category over the course of 2016, ranking a modest 14th with a 38.9-percent opponent success rate on third downs. But down the stretch, no team shut down more third-down situations than the Seahawks, who limited teams to a minuscule 18.8-percent success rate over the final three games. Stafford and Co. can't afford to get stalled out on third down, with Seattle more than capable of doing plenty of damage on the other side of the ball.

Daily fantasy fade: QB Matthew Stafford

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Three teams that sportsbooks really don't want to see win Super Bowl LI
By PATRICK EVERSON

The NFL playoffs haven’t even kicked off yet, but sportsbooks can already breathe at least a little sigh of relief on Super Bowl futures action heading into wild card weekend.

We tell you the three teams bookmakers least want lifting the Lombardi Trophy come Feb. 5 in Houston, with insights from Johnny Avello, executive director of race and sports at Wynn Las Vegas; Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at The Mirage; Matthew Holt, COO of CG Analytics; and Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

Oakland Raiders

The franchise that created “Just Win, Baby” under iconic owner Al Davis hasn’t lived up to that motto in more than a decade. The Raiders’ last trip to the playoffs came in the 2002 season, when they reached the Super Bowl before getting boatraced by Tampa Bay 48-21 as a 3.5-point favorite.

But bettors were sold on Oakland early and often this year, hitting the Raiders hard before the season started and continuing to pile on as Derek Carr and Co. put together a strong campaign. At the Wynn, Oakland opened up 50/1 and shortened all the way to 10/1, before blowing up after quarterback Derek Carr suffered a broken leg in Week 16.

“The Raiders were a huge liability,” said Avello, who now has Oakland’s odds at a whopping 100/1 after Carr’s injury. “I don’t think they can get there now after losing their quarterback. But with their quarterback in place, who knows? The sky was the limit for them.”

Oakland travels to Houston on Saturday for the first game of wild-card weekend, and the Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog.

The Raiders opened up at 50/1 at CG books, as well, including at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M, and that number was bet all the way down to 7.5/1 by the beginning of December, when Oakland was a stout 10-2 SU. One huge injury later, the Raiders are at 80/1.

“The only team we lose money to is the Raiders, and their chances are slim now,” Holt said.

At The Mirage, the Raiders opened at 30/1 in the futures book and got as tight as 9/2. But Carr’s injury changed everything, dropping Oakland to 50/1.


New York Giants

Avello, Cooley and Stoneback all pointed to the Giants being problematic for their shops. New York missed the postseason the past four years, which led Tom Coughlin to step down as coach, with Ben McAdoo replacing him in getting promoted from offensive coordinator.

Last year’s form (6-10 SU) prompted bookmakers to put a bit longer odds on the Giants winning the Super Bowl this season, and a 2-3 SU start justified that decision, though it didn’t slow New York money at the Wynn.

“I’ve had liability on the Giants all year, and it’s just been piling up, because the Giants didn’t make the playoffs (last season) and seem to be playing their best football right now,” said Avello, who opened the Giants 35/1 and has seen those odds shorten to the current 12/1. “I’ve taken a lot of money on them all year long, right down the ladder. Even this week, I’ve taken quite a bit of money on them.”

So although the Raiders are likely a nonfactor, Avello still may need a hanky to swab his forehead.

“The sweat’s still there with the Giants,” he said.

The Mirage and MGM Resorts books are perspiring, as well, opening New York 22/1, then lengthening those odds to 40/1 in the wake of that 2-3 start. Now the Giants are 15/1.

“Actually, the New York Giants are the worst scenario for us,” Stoneback said, though he noted the G-Men would still represent a small win. “They were the eighth-most-popular team as far as tickets written on the 32 teams.”

“The Giants and Chiefs present our biggest sharp liability,” said Cooley, noting the AFC West champions are also an issue. “We took some smart money on the Giants in early November at 28/1 and have a number of tickets on them between 15/1 and 20/1.”


New England Patriots

New England opened as the 8/1 favorite at The Mirage and has done nothing to disprove that throughout the season, posting a 14-2 SU mark to earn the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

“The Patriots are our third-worst scenario, and they’re at 8/5 right now,” Stoneback said. “They’ve got the second-most tickets written on them. No. 1 was the Packers.”

But those Patriots wagers accounted for more money, hence a worse scenario than the Packers. However, the Mirage and MGM Resorts would still see what Stoneback termed a “medium winner” if Tom Brady and Co. go all the way.

Cooley noted the Pats – along with NFC No. 1 seed Dallas – provided the most public liability.

“New England has been the favorite to win Super Bowl 51 since the preseason, and nothing has changed,” he said, adding we opened the Patriots at +765 and now has them lower than 2/1, at +170. “So the squares have been backing that squad all year.”

At the Wynn, Avello said a Patriots Super Bowl win wouldn’t be a bad nor good scenario, calling it pretty much a wash. New England opened 8/1 at Avello’s shop and is currently 7/5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Money Moves - WC
By Micah Roberts

The general public has spoken this week at the Las Vegas betting windows and they've shown that they like Sunday's two Wild Card games much more than Saturday's. However, the wise guys could care less in their constant search for value and they jumped quickly on all the games.

"The two Saturday games have minimal action, but the Sunday games are attracting lots of attention and it's two-way on both," said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook VP Jay Kornegay. "Pittsburgh is getting a lot more parlay action, but the straight bets are all even."

The Steelers have won seven straight heading into this game, but Miami has won nine of its past 11, a run that was started with a 30-15 home win over the Steelers in Week 6. The spread in that game was Pittsburgh -7.5 when Miami was 1-4 and Pittsburgh was 4-1 at the time.

While Pittsburgh -10.5 might appear a little excessive, South Point sports book director Chris Andrews likes where he's at with it.

"Some of sharper players I know, not guys in any (betting) groups, but just guys who I respect their opinions laid Steelers -10 and when we moved to -10.5 we got some wise-guy play taking Miami, but we're still at -10.5. I have a feeling this game may run higher," Andrews said.

Weather should play a role at Heinz Field with a wind chill at zero degrees and winds up to 13 mph. The total is sitting steady at 46 across Las Vegas after opening 47. There's actually poor weather expected in all three outdoor stadiums.

"We expected poor weather conditions in all three of the outdoor games and figured it into the opening number," said Kornegay.

Lambeau Field will have a wind chill at -7 as the Packers welcome the Giants in a rematch from Week 5 when the Packers won 23-16, pushing on the number at -7. Green Bay comes in streaking with a six-game winning streak and bettors have driven the number up from the opener of -3.5.

"I thought -4 was a good number," said Andrews, "but we've been bet up to -5. I really thought we'd get more Giants money than we have, but it's been two-way since being at -5."

The last two times the New York Giants won the Super Bowl, they went through Lambeau Field each time in the playoffs. If thinking Super Bowl again, they're relatively low at 16/1 odds despite having to win four games on the road. In the Giants last two Super Bowl wins they started in the Wild Card round and were offered at 30-to-1 odds or higher. Part of the reason for decline in odds is because of piled up risk since odds were posted in February.

"The only team we do poorly with in futures is the Giants," Andrews said.

The other team that is risky all over town in Super Bowl futures is Oakland, but without quarterback Derek Carr, no book is really sweating. The Westgate is offering 100/1 odds to win it all which would start with winning behind third-string QB Coonor Cook at Houston on Saturday. Wise guys showed their hand immediately when numbers were first posted.

"Sharps are on Houston," said Andrews. "They laid -2.5 and -3 and we've had good two-way at -3. The bulk of the straight bet action was laying -2.5. We've still got some decent public play on Oakland."

The feeling from the sharps is that the largest disparity in point value from a starter to back-up in the NFL is Aaron Rodgers and then it's Carr. The decrease in the ratings wasn't as significant as it should have been in the eyes of wise guys.

The other Saturday game could have freezing rain in Seattle with a 26 degree wind chill as Detroit visits riding a three-game losing streak.

"We opened Seattle -7 and got wagers right away,' said Andrews. "We eventually went to -8.5 until getting some buy-back on Detroit. Seattle is the big teaser and large money-line parlay risk that extends into Sunday with the Steelers. A Lions outright win would be really good for us."

The sports books ultimate wish list for wild card round this week is the Lions to win and covers from Miami, Oakland and Giants.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - WC Saturday
By Chris David

Week 17 Recap

Total bettors saw the final week of the regular season end in a stalemate (8-8) and there were a couple decisions that came down to the final minutes, which included the finale on Sunday Night Football from Ford Field. The total closed at 50 ½, five points higher than the opener, and looked like an easy ‘under’ ticket after a scoreless first quarter. A solid second quarter (24 points) kept ‘over’ bettors in the mix but the game slowed down again in the third quarter. Green Bay led 31-17 late in the fourth quarter and gave the Lions prime field position with an awful punt. Sure enough, Detroit scored on the next play and the infamous Green Bay-Over ticket connected. Including that result, the ‘under’ went 27-24-1 in primetime games this season while the ‘over’ went 132-122-2 through 17 weeks of the regular season.

Wild Card Trends

Looking at the below results, you can see that the opening week of the playoffs has leaned to the low side. The ‘under’ has gone 12-3-1 (80%) in the Wild Card round the past four postseasons and going back to the 2004-05 playoffs, the ‘under’ is 30-17-1 (64%) overall.

First Round Total History (2004-2015)
2015 (Under 3-1) 2014 (Under 2-1-1)
Kansas City 30 Houston 0 - UNDER 39.5 Carolina 27 Arizona 16 - OVER 38
Pittsburgh 18 Cincinnati 16 - UNDER 46 Baltimore 30 Pittsburgh 17 - PUSH 47
Seattle 10 Minnesota 9 - UNDER 40 Indianapolis 26 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47
Green Bay 35 Washington 18 - OVER 48 Dallas 24 Detroit 20 - UNDER 48.5
2013 (Under 3-1) 2012 (Under 4-0)
Kansas City 44 Indianapolis 45 - OVER 48 Cincinnati 13 Houston 19 - UNDER 42.5
New Orleans 26 Philadelphia 24 - UNDER 55.5 Minnesota 10 Green Bay 24 - UNDER 44
San Diego 27 Cincinnati 10 - UNDER 47.5 Indianapolis 9 Baltimore 24 - UNDER 47.5
San Francisco 23 Green Bay 20 - UNDER 46.5 Seattle 24 Washington 14 - UNDER 45
2011 (Over 3-1) 2010 (Under 3-1)
Cincinnati 10 Houston 31 - OVER 38 Seattle 41 New Orleans 36 - OVER 45.5
Detroit 28 New Orleans 45 - OVER 59.5 N.Y. Jets 17 Indianapolis 16 - UNDER 44
Atlanta 2 N.Y. Giants 24 - UNDER 47 Baltimore 30 Kansas City 7 - UNDER 41
Pittsburgh 23 Denver 29 - OVER 34 Green Bay 21 Philadelphia 16 - UNDER 46.5
2009 (Over 4-0) 2008 (Under 3-1)
N.Y. Jets 24 Cincinnati 14 - OVER 34 Arizona 30 Atlanta 24 - OVER 51.5
Dallas 34 Philadelphia 14 - OVER 45.5 San Diego 23 Indianapolis 17 - UNDER 49
Baltimore 33 New England 14 - OVER 43.5 Baltimore 27 Miami 9 - UNDER 38
Arizona 51 Green Bay 45 - OVER 48 Philadelphia 26 Minnesota 14 - UNDER 41
2007 (Total 2-2) 2006 (Under 3-1)
Seattle 35 Washington 14 - OVER 39 Indianapolis 23 Kansas City 8 - UNDER 50.5
Jacksonville 31 Pittsburgh 29 - OVER 41 Seattle 21 Dallas 20 - UNDER 48
N.Y. Giants 24 Tampa Bay 14 - UNDER 39.5 New England 37 N.Y. Jets 16 - OVER 38.5
San Diego 17 Tennessee 6 - UNDER 39 Philadelphia 23 N.Y. Giants - UNDER 45.5
2005 (Under 3-1) 2004 (Under 3-1)
Washington 17 Tampa Bay 10 - UNDER 37 St. Louis 27 Seattle 20 - UNDER 50.5
New England 28 Jacksonville - UNDER 37 N.Y. Jets 20 San Diego 17 - UNDER 43
Carolina 23 N.Y. Giants 0 - UNDER 43.5 Indianapolis 49 Denver 24 - OVER 56
Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati 17 - OVER 46.5 Minnesota 31 Green Bay 17 - UNDER 49.5

Saturday, Jan. 7

For the playoffs, I’m going to break down evey game and offer up my quick handicap and prediction for all the matchups. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Oakland at Houston (ESPN, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Saturday’s opening playoff game between Houston and Oakland is the lowest total we’ve seen this entire season. An opener of 37 was sent out last Sunday and the most betting shops are booking 36 ½ as of Friday morning in what will likely be the only playoff game that won’t be affected by weather this weekend.

It’s hard to make a case for the ‘over’ in this matchup, especially with the personnel at quarterbacks for both teams. Oakland’s Connor Cook will be the first quarterback in NFL history to make his first start in a playoff game. In last week’s loss at Denver, Cook entered late in the first quarter and finished 14-of-21 for 150 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Those numbers don’t look bad on paper and it was good to see him break in on the road but playing at Houston is a much stiffer test.

The Texans are ranked first in the league in total defense (301.3 YPG) and the numbers are better at home (287 YPG). The club is allowing 20.5 points per game and again, the average is better (16.6 PPG) from NRG Stadium.

These teams met in Week 11 from Mexico City and Oakland escaped with a 27-20 victory by outscoring Houston 14-0 in the final quarter on two big passing plays. Prior to those scores, Houston kept Derek Carr under control and the Raiders (30 rushing yards) couldn’t do anything on the ground. The final outcome saw the ‘over’ (46) connect but it was a fortunate win for bettors on the high side.

With Carr, Oakland started the season with a 10-2 ‘over’ run but the team watched the ‘under’ cash in three of their last four games. The Raiders saw the ‘over/under’ go 4-4 on the road this season and their defense (21.3 PPG) was better away this season than at home (27.6 PPG).

Since Bill O’Brien arrived in Houston, the club has seen the ‘under’ go 15-10 (67%) at NRG Stadium and that includes a 5-3 mark this season. O’Brien announced that Brock Osweiler will start for Houston this week and as much criticism as he deserves, the team is 6-1 at home with him as a starter despite only averaging 21.3 PPG. For what it’s worth, Osweiler has started twice against Oakland in his career and he’s looked confident in both outings (67%, 551 passing yards).

There’s no relevant historical playoff data for Oakland since it hasn’t played in the postseason since the 2002 season but there is a decent sample size for Houston. The Texans have played in five games since 2012 and the ‘under’ has gone 3-2 in those matchups and that includes a 2-1 mark at home.

Fearless Prediction: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the last four games in the Wild Card round with totals closing in the thirties and the winning team has averaged 29.2 PPG in those games. I expect Houston to win on Saturday and avenge last year's humbling 30-0 playoff defeat at home to Kansas City. I'm not sure if the 'over' will get their but I’m leaning to Houston's Team Total ‘over’ (20) in this spot.

Detroit at Seattle (NBC, 8:15 p.m. ET)

This total opened 44 and dropped to 42 ½ earlier in the week but most books are offering 43 ½ as of Friday morning. Temperatures for this game is expected to be in the mid-thirties by kickoff with a chance of flurries as well but the wind doesn’t expect to play a factor.

I mention the wind because neither Detroit (81.9 YPG) or Seattle (99.4 YPG) has been able to run the ball this season and both rely heavily on their passing games.

The Seahawks defense has been very strong at home (17 PPG) this season but the loss of safety Earl Thomas in Week 13 has exposed the group in their last four games. The secondary hasn’t had an interception during this run and their opponent passer rating has jumped from 77.9 to 105 which is understandable against Aaron Rodgers and Carson Palmer but inexcusable versus the signal callers from the Rams and 49ers.

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford will be the opponent this week and he hasn’t looked good since injuring his finger. The Lions are 1-3 over this span and he’s tossed more interceptions (5) than touchdowns (3). Wearing a glove on the injured hand has seen his completion percentage drop from 66 to 63 percent and the Lions have only played one outside game in the second-half of the season, which resulted in a 17-6 road loss to the New York Giants.

Similar to Stafford, the Lions defense has also struggled down the stretch by allowing a combined 73 points and 823yards the last two weeks. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number but the previous eight had gone ‘under’ for Detroit.

Detroit has only been in two playoff games with Stafford and they lost both games on the road, at Dallas (24-20) in the 2014 postseason and at New Orleans (45-28) in the 2011. QB Russell Wilson has played in 10 playoff games with Seattle and he owns a 7-3 record which includes a 4-0 mark at CenturyLink Field. In those outcomes, the ‘over’ went 3-1 with the Seahawks averaging 26.5 PPG.

Seattle watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 this season and it enters the playoff with a 4-1 run to the high side but it’s safe to say that the offense is struggling. As mentioned above, they can’t run the football and they’re averaging just 16 first downs per game in the last five weeks. In the seven games prior to the late season slump, they averaged 24 first downs per game.

The Seahawks are familiar with playing under the lights, doing so five times this season. In those games, Seattle went 4-0-1 and outside of the 6-6 tie at Arizona, the club averaged 31.5 PPG. The ‘over’ was 3-2.

Detroit has only played in two primetime games this seasons and coincidentally they were the last two games they played, which resulted in two ‘over’ winners and one was fortunate (see above).

Fearless Prediction: As much as I’m aware of Seattle’s struggles offensively down the stretch, I believe it will be able to score on Detroit in this spot based on their tendencies at home and under the lights. I’m going to take Seattle Team Total ‘over’ (25 ½) and the game ‘over’ (43 ½) as well because I believe Detroit will get at least four scores.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Super Bowl bettors may want to pass on NFL Wild-Card Weekend participants
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

If a specific and current three-year Super Bowl trend holds true this season, you can go ahead and eliminate every team scheduled to play on Wild-Card Weekend from contending for this year’s Vince Lombardi Trophy.

In fact, if this particular trend continues, then you can eliminate every single playoff participant outside of the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys.

That’s right, football fans. Each of the last three Super Bowls has featured the AFC’s top seed against the NFC’s top seed. Broncos-Panthers, Patriots-Seahawks, Seahawks-Broncos. No sleepers, no upsets, no Wild-Card participants. It’s been nothing but the chalkiest of chalk playing on the biggest of stages for the ultimate prize.

This is certainly not meant to suggest that none of this year’s Wild-Card teams stand a chance of claiming glory in Houston on February 5. But since the NFL moved to its current eight-division format in 2002, only eight of the 28 teams to play in the Super Bowl found themselves in action on Wild-Card weekend.

Additionally, only three of the 14 Super Bowl champions (Green Bay in 2011, the New York Giants in 2008 and Pittsburgh Steelers in 2006) that have been crowned since the 2002 regular season played on the road in the Wild-Card Round. That doesn’t bode well for the Oakland Raiders, Miami Dolphins, Detroit Lions and New York Giants.

The good news is that it’s not all doom and gloom for this weekend’s combatants. Since 2002, seven of the NFL’s 14 Super Bowl champions did, in fact, play on Wild-Card Weekend - the most recent of which involves the 2012 Baltimore Ravens club that defeated the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans in February 2013.

So maybe 2017 is the year that Wild-Card Weekend takes control of the NFL playoffs. Maybe we see Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers up against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in just under a month.

Or maybe, recent form holds true and quarterbacks Tom Brady and Dak Prescott ride home field advantage all the way to H-Town.

CURRENT SUPER BOWL LI ODDS

*Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

New England Patriots: 13/10
Dallas Cowboys: 4/1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8/1
Green Bay Packers: 10/1
Kansas City Chiefs: 10/1
Atlanta Falcons: 12/1
Seattle Seahawks: 12/1
New York Giants: 16/1
Houston Texans: 80/1
Miami Dolphins: 100/1
Detroit Lions: 100/1
Oakland Raiders: 100/1

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

In an effort to gain a better understanding of how the betting market is currently approaching Wild-Card Weekend, We reached out to Chris Andrews, who serves as the sportsbook director for the South Point Casino in Las Vegas. You can follow Chris on Twitter @andrewssports.

Which positions have the sharp bettors established: “Early sharp action was on the Texans -2.5 and -3. Even with Houston at -3.5, we are still taking money on them, but it’s fairly balanced at that price. The sharp money also laid the -7 with Seattle and followers pushed that up to -8.5. However, at -8.5, we have seen some sharp action on the underdog.”

It’s been back and forth on the Steelers-Dolphins game with some sharp money laying -10, but it’s largely the public playing that number. At +10.5, we took a bit of sharp action on Miami. As for Sunday night, we’ve seen sharp money on both Green Bay and New York depending upon the number.”

Which positions have the public bettors established: “The big teaser of the week is Steelers-Seahawks and the public is on most of the favorites. Moneyline plays and teasers on the favorites are huge, which surprises me a bit in regards to both the Texans and Packers.”

In your opinion, is there any value left on Super Bowl futures: “I have the Falcons at 7/1 and I think that’s decent value, but I’ve seen that number even higher. I think Atlanta has a good shot at it.”

Where is your biggest exposure in regards to Super Bowl futures: “As of now we would turn a profit with any team that wins the Super Bowl. The worst-case scenario would be if the New York Giants won the whole thing. But even then, we’re in good shape.”

In your opinion, who is the most dangerous non-bye week team: “It’s got to be the Pittsburgh Steelers, but maybe my hometown bias is showing here.”

WILD CARD RAMBLINGS FROM A MADMAN

Oakland Raiders: The Silver and Black have absolutely no shot of winning or covering against the Houston Texans on Saturday if they play the lifeless, uninspiring football that has engulfed the franchise in the five quarters of action since quarterback Derek Carr was lost for the season with a broken right fibula. If Houston assigns superb cornerback A.J. Bouye to cover Pro Bowler Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree needs to step up and produce his best game of the season.

Houston Texans: Head coach Bill O’Brien is headed for the unemployment line if his Texans fail to beat rookie signal-caller Connor Cook, who is making his first career NFL start against the league’s top-ranked defense. Remember, for as bad as quarterback Brock Osweiler has been this season - and he’s been absolutely terrible - the former Denver Bronco completed 26 of 39 passes for 243 yards with one TD and one INT against this Oakland defense in Mexico City back on November 21.

Detroit Lions: Seven years in the league and this is just the third playoff game of Matthew Stafford’s NFL career. The Lions feature a bottom-three rushing offense and finished the 2016 regular season minus-1 in the turnover differential department, which ranked 20th in the NFL. Detroit went from winning eight of nine to losing three straight contests to close out the season. No team in the league backdoor’d their way into the postseason in more lackluster fashion than this squad.

Seattle Seahawks: The 2014 champs may survive Wild-Card Weekend, but this is not the same Seattle club that tore apart the NFC two and three seasons ago. The offensive line is suspect, the running game is lacking ever since the retirement of Marshawn Lynch and All-World safety Earl Thomas is out for the season with a leg injury. Hosting Detroit is one thing, playing Atlanta or Dallas on the road is a completely different story.

Miami Dolphins: The defense, rushing attack and coaching advantage are evident, but how much faith do you really have in 10-year veteran quarterback Matt Moore? Between running backs Jay Ajayi and Le’Veon Bell, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game stayed under the current total of 45.5 points.

Pittsburgh Steelers: For those of you who are chomping at the bit to invest in Pittsburgh futures, keep the following in mind: The Steelers have lost six of the last eight games they’ve played against the New England Patriots.

New York Giants: Big Blue knows the blueprint for success when it comes to a showdown with Aaron Rodgers: Generate significant pressure with your front four defensive linemen while dropping seven defenders into coverage to cut off Rodgers’ throwing lanes. Blitzing Rodgers on a frequent basis only creates an opportunity for the former league MVP to slice and dice your undermanned secondary. Eli has run the postseason gauntlet on multiple occasions before and he’s already defeated the Dallas Cowboys twice this season. A win here could be the catalyst for something magical.

Green Bay Packers: The Packers will only go as far as their defense is willing to take them. And keep in mind that this is a defense that ranked 22nd in total defense, 31st in passing defense and 21st in scoring defense this season. Aaron Rodgers can only do so much. And not only that, but don’t be fooled by a six-game win streak that featured victories over Philadelphia, Houston, Chicago and Minnesota.

WILD-CARD PROP BET OF THE WEEK

Prop: New York Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. Over/Under 89.5 receiving yards

Pick: OVER 89.5 receiving yards

Why: The Green Bay Packers currently rank 31st in the NFL in passing defense (269.2 yds/gm) while Beckham has recorded 90 or more receiving yards in seven of 16 starts this season. But the real reason to like this prop has to do with the cornerback position on the Green Bay depth chart, notably Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and Ladarius Gunter, as well as slot cornerback Micah Hyde, all of whom ranked 48th or worse at the CB position in 2016, according to Pro Football Focus.

While I have yet to find a prop regarding New York Giants slot receiver Sterling Shepard, I’d play the Over on any that surfaces regarding his total receiving yards against Green Bay. Why? Because opposing quarterbacks have posted a stellar QB rating of 113.5 when throwing at cornerback Micah Hyde this season when he’s lined up in the slot.

Take note of the following:

2016 opposing QB rating when throwing at:

Ladarius Gunter: 101.6
Damarious Randall: 116.0
Quinten Rollins: 135.4
Micah Hyde: 98.4

TREND OF THE WEEK

The New York Giants are 9-0 against the spread in the team’s last nine road playoff games. If you want to take it one step further, be advised that the Giants are also 4-0-1 ATS over their last five games against the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay is currently listed as a 4.5-point favorite over New York for Sunday afternoon’s (4:40 p.m. ET) NFC Wild-Card showdown.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bettors backing home teams in Saturday's NFL Wild Card action
By PATRICK EVERSON

Saturday marks the beginning of the NFL playoffs, with wild-card weekend hitting the Lone Star State and the Emerald City. We talk about where the action is with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager.

Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans – Open: -3; Move: -3.5

Oakland was undeniably one of the best teams in the AFC all season, tying for the conference’s second-best record. But quarterback Derek Carr suffering a broken leg in a Week 16 win over Indianapolis has all but crushed the Raiders’ high hopes.

Last week, in the regular-season finale at Denver, the Raiders started Matt McGloin, who hurt his left shoulder in the first half. That necessitated bringing in rookie QB Connor Cook. Oakland was never in the game, losing 24-6 as a 1-point underdog to drop all the way to the No. 5 seed, despite a 12-4 SU record (10-6 ATS), because Kansas City also went 12-4 SU and won the West Division tiebreaker.

No. 4 seed Houston (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) has its own quarterback issues. The Texans paid big money to lure Brock Osweiler out of Denver last spring, but early in Week 15 against Jacksonville, they benched the ineffective QB in favor of little-known Tom Savage, who led a comeback 21-20 victory and was named starter.

But Savage suffered a head injury last weekend at Tennessee, was put in concussion protocol and will not play this week. So it’s back to Osweiler, who played the second half against the Titans in a 24-17 loss, with Houston a 3-point pup.

“This game had the makings of being a great matchup for the Raiders, very favorable for them. And now, they have very little chance to win it all at 80/1 in the futures,” Simbal said, noting Oakland’s precipitous drop in odds to win the Super Bowl. “The Raiders opened as a 3-point underdog, and the sharp action actually has come in on Houston. That number has bumped up to 3.5. Pushing off that 3 takes a lot, and it’s already happened here on Thursday.

“Look for the Raiders to get a little bit of maybe some public moneyline love, but it’s really been all Houston money, and this to me is really not a great matchup. I don’t really look for there to be a tremendous amount of action on this one.”

“On Monday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Houston, so we moved to Texans -3.5,” Jerome said. “Thursday afternoon, we got another sharp bet on Houston -3.5, so we moved to the current number of Texans -4 (-105). Seventy-one percent of cash and 73 percent of bets are on Houston. I don’t see us going any higher than -4, as the total is fairly low (37).”


Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -7.5; Move: -8

Seattle hasn’t been lighting it up lately, but still did enough to win the NFC West and make its fifth straight postseason trip, as the No. 3 seed. The Seahawks, who won the Super Bowl three seasons ago and lost a thrilling battle with New England for the title two years ago, have alternated wins and losses over their last seven games this season.

In Week 16, Seattle lost at home to Arizona 34-31 as a 9-point chalk, and Pete Carroll’s troops didn’t look much better in Week 17 at lowly San Francisco. The Seahawks (10-5-1 SU, 8-8 ATS) trailed 14-3 early before rallying to the lead and ultimately hanging on for a 25-23 victory laying 11.5 points.

Detroit had the NFC North title well within its reach after Week 14, with a 9-4 SU record, but then skidded to the finish line with an 0-3 SU and ATS stretch, barely hanging on for a wild-card berth. On Sunday night, with the division crown on the line, Detroit fell short to Green Bay 31-24 as a 3.5-point underdog, falling to the No. 6 seed at 9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS.

“This game is the ultimate teaser game,” Simbal said. “This has fans betting Seahawks and teasers down to pick or down to -1, Seahawks on moneyline situations, so again, the public side here is the Seahawks. I think that, as a book, if we could somehow pull off the upset here, it would be huge.”

“Monday afternoon, we got sharp action, so we moved Seattle to the current number of -8,” Jerome said. “This is the one game of wild-card weekend where we will need the favorite to cover, as 69 percent of cash and 71 percent of bets are backing Detroit on the spread. I could see us going to -8.5, as that is a dead number, but no higher.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

WC - Raiders at Texans
By Tony Mejia

Oakland at Houston (-3.5/36.5), 4:35 pm ET, ESPN

The Raiders likely wouldn’t be playing in this game if Derek Carr hadn’t broken his fibula courtesy of a Trent Cole sack in a 33-25 win over the Colts just before Christmas. Backup Matt McGloin was ineffective and then injured in Sunday’s loss in Denver, banishing Oakland to the Wild Card round as Kansas City rose up to win the AFC West and the No. 2 seed, currently basking in the bye that goes with it.

Instead of opening at home next week with Carr under center, the Raiders open their first playoff game since losing Super Bowl XXXVII in 2003 hoping to survive with rookie Connor Cook under center. The Michigan State product becomes the first quarterback ever to get his first career start in the postseason. It will be his first start since the College Football Playoff semifinals on Dec. 31, 2015, where his Spartans suffered a 38-0 loss to eventual champion Alabama.

Cook will have a much better supporting cast around him than he had in college, but he’ll be right back up against an elite defense, one that has overcome the loss of J.J. Watt to rank first in fewest yards allowed (301.3), coming in second in passing yards allowed (201.6). The Texans have fared extremely well defensively to compensate for their own quarterback woes, so this will be a real challenge for Cook, especially with the intensity ratcheted up during the playoffs in a road environment.

Cook threw his first touchdown pass on a 32-yard strike to Amari Cooper, but also suffered his first pro sack/fumble and threw his first interception. It was an eventful baptism by fire against the likes of Von Miller and Aqib Talib, the same ferocious unit that knocked out McGloin in the first half when Jared Crick roughed him, causing a left shoulder injury that should render him the backup here. If he’s unable to go, Garrett Gilbert would be activated from the practice squad.

In an ironic twist, the Texans went from having one of the most unstable quarterback situations in the league to the most secure in their first playoff matchup due to Oakland’s plight. Tom Savage, who had supplanted Brock Osweiler after rallying Houston past Jacksonville on Dec. 18, suffered a concussion in the first half of last week’s meaningless loss at Tennessee. Although he was initially cleared to return, he ended up sitting out the second half and won’t be a part of Sunday’s actions. Brandon Weeden will back up Osweiler, who has started 14 games and thrown 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions in an unsuccessful first season after signing a four-year, $72 million contract in March to come in and alleviate all concerns at the position.

Remember, Houston was in this exact position at this time last year, coming off winning an ugly AFC South and hosting Kansas City to open Wild Card weekend. Brian Hoyer threw four interceptions and fumbled once. The Chiefs won 30-0.

Osweiler was inked as the fix, but If he hears boos at NRG Stadium on Saturday afternoon, it won’t be the first time. As it turns out, Texans fans no longer love the investment. Still, Osweiler does have postseason experience and certainly knows the Raiders, having been in a division with them during his formative years in Denver and having just faced them on Nov. 21 in Week 11.

Houston led the Raiders 20-13 in the fourth quarter of a Monday night game played at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City, and Osweiler had his moments when he wasn’t having a laser pointer being shined in his eyes. He connected with DeAndre Hopkins for a 60-yard touchdown and completed 66.7 percent of his passes, his third-highest clip this season.

Carr rescued the game with a pair of clutch touchdown passes and continued to carve out a niche as a guy who raised his level when it mattered most, but that x-factor is no longer in play. It’s imperative to Oakland’s chances that they don’t put Cook in a position where he has to go into rescue mode.

With both quarterbacks facing defense featuring feared pass rushers and talented athletes in the secondary, the expectation is that the conservative approach will reign, leading prognosticators to place this total at a very low 36.5-37.

LINE MOVEMENT

This line opened with the Texans as 3-point favorites and set the total at 37.5. The number has since moved to the 36.5-37 with money coming in on the under and Houston at home. Oakland easily surpassed its season win total of 8.5 at the WestgateLV SuperBook, which also set it at 8.5 for the Texans. Houston paid off 10/11 odds at the start of the season to win the AFC South.

INJURY CONCERNS

Beyond Carr and McGloin, the Raiders are also likely to be without safety Nate Allen due to a concussion. Left tackle Donald Penn, who has been among the best at his position this season, hasn't practiced and may be a game-time decision with a knee injury. Receivers Michael Crabtree (ankle), Cooper (shoulder) and Andre Holmes (shoulder) have all been limited but should play. The same applies to lineman Kelechi Osemele (ankle) and safety Karl Joseph (toe). Tackle Austin Howard (shoulder) will return after missing the Denver loss.

The Texans were without DE Jadeveon Clowney, CB Johnathan Joseph and LB Brian Cushing against Tennesssee, but all are healthy and good to go after getting rest. Houston is as healthy as they've been all season, missing only Savage and potentially, LB John Simon (chest). Leading rusher Lamar Miller, who hasn't played since suffering an ankle injury on Dec. 18, will also return. He's rushed for a team-high 1,073 yards this season.

GROUND GAME ASSESSMENT

Since both teams will likely prefer to place the burden of the offense and their offensive lines and their running backs, it’s worth knowing who is most likely to be effective. The Texans will rely on Miller and also have Alfred Blue, who has started the last two games and was the lone offensive bright spot in last year’s 30-0 loss, rushing for 99 yards on 17 carries. Houston has averaged 4.1 yards per carry and rushed for 1,859 yards, the eighth-highest total in the NFL.

Oakland has three capable backs in Latavius Murray and explosive rookies Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington. The Raiders ended up sixth with 1,922 and averaged 4.4 yards per carry, tied for 10th best. They ran for 17 touchdowns, tied for sixth-most in the league, while the Texans managed just eight, tied for 29th behind only the N.Y. Giants.

Houston allowed 4.0 yards per carry while Oakland surrendered 4.5.

RECENT MEETINGS (Oakland 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS last five; OVER 4-1)

11/21/16 Oakland 27-20 vs. Houston (OAK -6.5, 46.5)
9/14/14 Houston 30-14 at Oakland (HOU -3, 40)
11/17/13 Oakland 28-23 at Houston (HOU -10.5, 41)
10/9/11 Oakland 25-20 at Houston (HOU -4.5, 48.5)
10/3/10 Houston 31-24 at Oakland (HOU -3.5, 44)

PROPS

Of the props available below at the WestgateLV Superbook, I'd ride that combined sack prop going over and would take a shot at the first score being a field goal.

Lamar Miller rushing yards 75.5: (-110 o/u)
Raiders completions 18.5: (-110 o/u)
Texans completions 20: (-110 o/u)
Eli Manning passing yards 254.5: (-110 o/u)
Michael Crabtree receiving yards 50.5: (-110 o/u)
Texans TD passes/INT 2: (-120 over/ +100 under)
Raiders TD Passes/INT 2: (-110 o/u)
Total combined sacks 3.5: (+105 over, -125 under)
First score of game will be: (-125 TD, +105 other)
Total points: Texans 20, Raiders 16.5 (-110 o/u)

RAIDERS AS A ROAD DOG

Although Oakland looked pretty formidable from the onset in opening 4-1, it has been a road dog five times this season, including last week's 24-6 loss in Denver. The Raiders are 3-2 SU/ATS, losing their last two at the Chiefs and Broncos after winning outright as a short dog at New Orleans, Baltimore and Jacksonville. The Raiders were 3-2 straight up and 5-0 ATS as a road underdog last season.

TEXANS AS A HOME FAVORITE

Houston was favored six times at NRG Stadium and was only an underdog once, losing to San Diego on Nov. 27. Its Week 2 win over Kansas City was a pick'em and it went 6-0 straight up (3-2-2 ATS) when favored.