Saturday 1/23/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Providence at Villanova January 23, 12:00 EST

Villanova Wildcats (17-2, 9-8-1 ATS) look to remain undefeated in Big East play (7-0, 3-4 ATS) when they host Providence Friars (16-3, 11-7 ATS). Defense the moniker for these Wildcats allowing a stingy 60.6 PPG got to lean Villanova's way as they've dominated this series, winning five consecutive games (3-2 ATS) and haven't lost a BIG East regular season or Conference Tournament game in over a year, last falling at Georgetown on Jan. 19, 2015 recording 22 straight with a money-making 16-6 record against the betting line.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Soccer: EPL Best Bets - Week 23
By Chris David

Week 22 Recap

After watching underdogs dominate the last two matchdays, bettors saw the favorites bounce back strong last weekend with a 5-0 mark on Saturday. We almost had one underdog cash but Chelsea was gifted a late goal and earned a 3-3- home draw (+240) against Everton.

Sunday’s slate saw Manchester United (+215) earn a 1-0 road win over Liverpool, which was the game that saw a ‘dog win. The late game watched Arsenal and Stoke City play to a scoreless draw (+300) and Monday’s action had Swansea City (+130) snap out of its funk with a 1-0 home win over Watford.

Despite the last three games going ‘under’ last week, the ‘over’ posted a 6-4 mark. Adding up those results, favorites are now 96-61 with 63 draws this season while the ‘under’ has gone 110-105-5.

Top 4

Manchester United vs. Southampton (NBCSN, 10:00 a.m. ET)

The Red Devils (-120) have gone unbeaten (2-2-0) in their last four games since the heat was turned up on manger Louis van Gaal. Last week’s 1-0 win at Liverpool should give the club confidence, especially with their next two games to be played at Old Trafford.

Southampton (+375) enters this match with a two-game winning streak, both victories coming at home. Playing on the road (2-4-4) has been a different story for the Saints this season and they head to Old Trafford with four consecutive losses as visitors and they’ve been outscored 8-2 during this skid. Overall, Southampton has been outscored 11-9 on the road and the lack of goals has helped the ’under’ go 6-4.

Man United has been great defensively at home this season, surrendering four goals in 10 league matches. That effort has helped United post a 5-4-1 mark at home and the ‘under’ is 6-4 in those games.

United defeated Southampton 3-2 in mid-September on the road and has gone 7-2-1 in the last 10 encounters between the pair. However, the Saints did earn a 1-0 win over Manchester last January on the road.

Manchester won’t have Ashley Young (groin) available for Saturday and Bastian Schweinsteiger remains out.

Manchester City at West Ham United (NBC, 12:30 p.m. ET)

Tough game for bettors to handicap considering Manchester City (-145) has struggled on the road this season and West Ham United (+400) was unbeaten in its last nine games in all competitions up until last week’s loss to New Castle United.

Does that make us believe the Hammers rebound or will City hand them another setback? West Ham started the season with back-to-back losses at Upton Park but has gone 4-4 in its last eight at home and it only allowed six goals during this span, which was the same amount in the setbacks.

City started the season with three straight wins on the road but were 0-3-3 in its next six before finally getting on track with a 2-1 victory at Watford on Jan. 1. The Citizens lead the EPL with 43 goals but only 10 of those have come on the road and that effort has helped produced a 6-4 ‘under’ mark as visitors.

West Ham United stunned Manchester City 2-1 on Sept. 19 at Etihad Stadium and that was the second win over them in the last three encounters. Prior to that three-game span, City was 10-3-1 in the previous 14 matches between the pair.

City (14-8) and West Ham United (12-10) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and this week’s total is listed at 2 ½ and shaded (-135) to the high side.

Arsenal vs. Chelsea (NBCSN, 11:00 a.m. ET)

All eyes will be on the London derby this weekend as Arsenal (+100) will meet Chelsea (+280) from the Emirates Stadium. The Gunners will be looking to avenge a 2-0 loss to the defending champions, which saw them finish the game with nine players due to a pair of red cards.

The oddsmakers are telling you the Gunners should earn three points in this spot and they’ve been great at home, going 7-2-1 in 10 games. The lone loss came in its opener, a 2-0 setback to West Ham United. In the next nine games, nobody has scored more than one goal and goaltender Peter Cech has posted five clean sheets in front of the locals.

Meanwhile, Chelsea has struggled to a 2-3-5 record on the road and they’ve been outscored 15-13 as a visitor. The champs remain unbeaten (2-4-0) in league play since it parted ways with Jose Mourinho as manager and that includes a 1-1-0 road mark.

Entering this game, Arsenal is unbeaten (2-2-0) in its last four but the last two efforts ended in draws. The club should get a big boost offensively with the return of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez. While the Gunners are fit, Chelsea is expected to not have Eden Hazard or Diego Costa available.

The total on this game is sitting at 2 ½ goals and Chelsea has been a great ‘over’ bet (15-7) this season, even better on the road (7-3). However, Arsenal is 6-4 to the ‘under’ at home and its only surrendered six goals on its turf this season. Three of the last four meetings between the pair at the Emirates ended in scoreless draws and the tie (+250) offers a nice return on Sunday.

Fearless Predictions

Last week’s effort was the best this season (+1,230) and it could’ve been better if Arsenal would’ve notched a win, thus helping our parlay wager. Despite the profitable weekend, the deficit is still over four digits ($1,490) this season.

Straight – Manchester City (-145) over West Ham United – 1 Unit

Straight – Over 2 ½ (-135) Manchester City-West Ham United – 2 Units

Straight – Over 2 ½ (+115) Tottenham-Crystal Palace – 3 Units

Straight – Under 2 ½ (-115) Chelsea-Arsenal – 1 Unit

Straight – Draw (+280) Swansea City-Everton – 1 Unit

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Saturday
By Mike Dempsey

We have just one graded stakes race in the U.S. today- the $200,000 Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita, and with a blizzard hitting the northeast of the U.S., maybe that’s a good thing.

There is no racing today at Aqueduct, Laurel Park, Charles Town and Penn National, but we have a good 11-race card on tap at Gulfstream Park and I dip into a few races at Santa Anita today in my Best Plays Report.

We have been on a nice roll at Gulfstream Park this week. On Thursday I had four winners on top, and yesterday I had six winners on top. We were off the turf and had a sloppy track on Friday. I suspect we will be off the turf today except perhaps for the $100,000 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes, a two-mile turf marathon.

The Santa Monica this afternoon at Santa Anita is a good betting race. I gave the edge to Ben’s Duchess off her fourth in the La Brea (G1) in her last outing.

David Jacobson ships in Room for Me from New York and Prize Exhibit will be making her first start on conventional dirt. She is a five-time winner on turf and has a win in her lone start over a synthetic surface.


Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $16,000 (12:35 ET)
#15 All Over It 3-1
#9 Change of Command 2-1
#14 Toh's Grey Cat 4-1
#2 Outofthedeptyhs 5-1

Analysis: All Over It beat restricted $12,500 claimers last out and figures to get in as I am assuming we are going to be off the turf today except perhaps for the stake later on the card. Our top pick has now won three of his six career starts, all three over the main track here. He steps into open company here but looks sharp enough to handle it.

Change of Command made a good late run to finish fourth last out against Alw-1 optional claimers in his first start off a three-month break. He only has one career start on dirt and that was a runner up over a wet track. He may end up scratching but he certainly fits at this level as he drops in class for Navarro.

Wagering
WIN: #15 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 9,15 / 2,9,14,15
TRI: 9,15 / 2,9,14,15 / 2,4,9,14,15

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 9 The H. Allen Jerkens (4:35 ET)
#1 Charming Kitten 6-5
#2 Roccia d'Oro 4-1
#7 St. Alban's Boy 7-2
#8 Mucho Mas Macho 20-1

Analysis: Charming Kitten is the obvious one to beat and I am going to take a stab this race may remain on the turf although the turf got a ton of rain yesterday. The Pletcher trainee was a game winner of the McKnight Handicap (G3) last out at 1 1/2 miles. He is proven at two miles, taking the Belmont Gold Cup over good ground. he is spotting our second choice six pounds but will be tough at a light price.

Roccia d'Oro exits the same race as our top pick, checking in fifth beaten 3 3/4 lengths for the top spot. The colt is bred to run all day and won an allowance race in Italy at 1 1/4 miles on turf. Castellano takes the call and with just six starts under his belt and three state side this guy may still have some upside.

St. Alban's Boy was fourth in the McKnight in a ground saving trip, beaten 3 1/2 lengths for the top spot. His last win came in the Laurel Turf Cup at 1 1/2 miles last October over ground labeled as good. The gelding has the look of a runner that may be able to handle the extra ground.

Wagering
WIN: #1 to win at 7-5 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,7,8
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,7,8 / 1,2,3,7,8

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita:

SA Race 8 The Santa Monica G2 (4:03 PT)
#2 Ben's Duchess 5-2
#6 Room for Me 3-1
#1 Prize Exhibit 4-1
#7 Living the Life 6-1

Analysis: Ben's Duchess pressed the early pace and weakened to finish fourth in the La Brea (G1) last out over the main track here off nearly a three-month break. She won the LA Woman (G3) two back matching her career top speed figure. She has won three of her six trips over the main track and she owns solid early and mid pace numbers. Looking for her to bounce back her with a better effort facing easier.

Room for Me ships in from New York for the Jacobson barn that has gone 0 for 8 at the meeting here. Last out the mare was bumped coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third place finish in the Interborough, beaten 3 3/4 lengths by the talented La Verdad. This gal started her career in Southern California and has won three of four starts over the main track here. She has won just one of her last five starts, taking the Bed of Roses two back on the main track at the Big A. With Garcia taking the call she should be forwardly placed as there is not a ton of early speed signed up to go here.

Prize Exhibit is coming off a victory in the Monrovia (G2) going 6 1/2 on the downhill turf course. This will be her first trip on dirt in her career. She has worked well over the main tack for the Cassidy barn that is 18% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from turf to dirt. I'm not crazy about the rail draw as she has never had to worry about having dirt in her face.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 1,2,6,7
TRI: 2,6 / 1,2,6,7 / 1,2,6,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R3: #2 Ufeelthiscornelius 10-1
R3: #1 Rock All Day 8-1
R4: #8 Spring Me 10-1
R5: #8 Air Squadron 8-1
R5: #10 Steve 8-1
R6: #12 Hint of Roses 15-1
R7: #6 Half Ton of Fun 8-1
R8: #13 Angel’s Sea 15-1
R9: #8 Mucho Mas Macho 20-1
R10: #6 Havermeyer Street 10-1
R11: #9 Disco Bill 12-1
R11: #2 Hatattack 8-1
R11: #10 Tocoron 15-1

Good luck today!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Northfield Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 12 - Post: 9:40 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$3200 - FILLIES & MARES NON WINNERS $1500 IN LAST 5 STARTS THAT ARE N/W $25,000 IN 2015-16. NO. 9 STARTS FROM 2ND TIER NORTHFIELD TRAINER CHANGE HN 4 T.GALE TO D.FUCHS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 6 SEA BUG 9/5


# 2 ST LADS GIDGET 5/1


# 9 CAMS SAHBRA 7/2


All signs point to SEA BUG for the selection. Feel the need for speed, this contender has been turning in some stellar speed ratings averaging around 82. Been going to post with some tougher customers of late, has a distinct class advantage. (Average Rating 81). With one of the most respectable drivers in terms of crossing the wire first, don't count this mare out of the outing. ST LADS GIDGET - Look for a great improvement from this entry who races with second time Lasix in here. This solid standardbred could get the win here beginning from the Northfield Park 2 hole. CAMS SAHBRA - Had one of the strongest speed figs of the group of horses in her last outing. I'd recommend using in your plays.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - Post: 8:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 95 - Purse:$16000 - NON-WINNERS OF $18,000 IN LAST 5 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 MAH SISH N 3/1


# 4 SOHO JACKMAN A 3/1


# 5 PASS THEM BY N 5/1


MAH SISH N sure does look ready to end up in the winner's circle. Achieved a 91 TrackMaster SR in last race. A duplicate event here should get the win in this race. Some drivers just fit better with certain fine animals. That seems to be the case here with Brennan. A really strong wager. This contender and Norman have an excellent working relationship. In the money percent for this partnership is high. SOHO JACKMAN A - A really strong play in here as he has one of the highest winning rates in the pack as well as tremendous credentials all around. His 95 average has this gelding among the most solid TrackMaster Speed Ratings in this race. PASS THEM BY N - Can't ignore based on TrackMaster Speed Ratings which have been exemplary (97 avg) lately. A respectable class horse cannot be ignored. With an avg class rating of 95 all signs point to yes.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 98

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FOUR YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE NOVEMBER 1, 2015 ALLOWED 3 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,250


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 HITTHEROADRUNNING 2/1


# 2 QUACKIN 3/1


# 3 CURLY BOY 5/2


HITTHEROADRUNNING has a strong shot to take this race. He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the strongest in this group of horses in this race. Gomez has very solid numbers that point to this gelding to be a strong contender. Looks very good against this group and will almost certainly be one of the early speedsters. QUACKIN - He must be given consideration given the quite good speed figures. Solid average speed figs in dirt route races make this pony a solid contender.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7100 Class Rating: 84

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JANUARY 23, 2015. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 9 U STEP ASIDE 6/1


# 13 STIG'S DEPUTY 5/2


# 10 SHUT UP CHRIS 4/1


I think U STEP ASIDE is a very strong choice. Jones has this gelding racing well and is a very strong selection based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figures garnered in sprint races as of late. STIG'S DEPUTY - Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. He has been running quite well and the Equibase speed figs are among the most respectable in this group. SHUT UP CHRIS - Could beat this group given the 71 speed figure garnered in his last outing. His 79 average has this gelding with among the strongest Equibase Speed Figures for this event.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Turf Paradise - Race #3 - Post: 1:32pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 LOVINTHELIMELIGHT (ML=3/1)
#8 ADD SOME ALCOHOL (ML=20/1)


LOVINTHELIMELIGHT - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a come back. ADD SOME ALCOHOL - Richard and Toye partnered together are a horse gambler's friend. I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run his best in the 3rd or 4th start back. You probably want to toss that last event at Turf Paradise on the mud where he finished off the board. Should do well in this event on a fast track.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 THE CLEANERS (ML=1/1), #2 PROUD COMET (ML=6/1), #9 WHIZ HIT (ML=8/1),

THE CLEANERS - Today's event is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last sixty days. Not the greatest of signs. When looking at today's Equibase class figure, he will have to earn a much better speed rating than last race out to battle in this dirt sprint. PROUD COMET - This gelding finished off the board on July 12th and wasn't close to victory last time out either. The Brain always cautions me to keep away from horses in sprint races that haven't hit the board in sprint events lately. WHIZ HIT - In any event of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to bet on a contender that has been sharp in short distance races of late. This gelding earned a rating in his last race which likely isn't good enough today.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 LOVINTHELIMELIGHT is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #8 - Post: 3:50pm - Claiming - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,200 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#10 SEEYA WHEN I SEEYA (ML=8/1)
#8 TAKIN THE SLOROAD (ML=10/1)
#13 COWBOY LUKE (ML=6/1)
#4 SIMPLY CLASSIC (ML=15/1)


SEEYA WHEN I SEEYA - I'm counting on this magnificent animal to run a big race today. TAKIN THE SLOROAD - If this gelding goes off at a big price, I have to make a play. He' has some wins as a longshot. This jock/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +196. This gelding is most certainly on the improve with speed ratings of 77, 89, 93 last 3 out. The 93 most recent race speed rating looks sound in the TrackMaster PPs. COWBOY LUKE - Last time around the track, finished seventh on a track listed as good at Tampa Bay Downs. Have to give a better effort in this event. You always have to be on the prowl for profit making jock/trainer duos; we have it right here. SIMPLY CLASSIC - This race horse should be rocking and rolling down the homestretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #14 BAKYT (ML=2/1), #3 PESO (ML=5/2), #5 RED ROSE CAT (ML=3/1),

BAKYT - This probable favorite hasn't visited the track in awhile. No morning blow outs since last race. PESO - This horse likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually win. Keep out of the top spot. RED ROSE CAT - This questionable contender ran a disappointing speed figure last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will probably get beat in today's event running that rating.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#10 SEEYA WHEN I SEEYA is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [8,10,13]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:
[8,10] with [4,8,10,13] with [4,8,10,13] with [4,5,8,10,12,13] with [4,5,8,10,12,13] Total Cost: $72

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #3 - AQUEDUCT - 1:20 PM EASTERN POST


The Busanda Stakes

8.3 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK THREE YEAR OLD FILLIES STAKES $100,000.00 PURSE

#1 FLORA DORA
#4 SCATOOSH
#5 ALTO BELLE
#2 DREAMS TO REALITY

For you folks who enjoy a little Thoroughbred Racing History to accompany your handicapping efforts this afternoon ... The Busanda is named for Ogden Phipps' filly who not only beat the colts in the Suburban Handicap of 1951, but also bested the males twice in the Saratoga Cup. She posted 10 victories from ages 2 to 5. Against females, she won races like the Alabama, Top Flight, New Castle, and Diana. Perhaps Busanda's greatest renown was as a broodmare. She was the dam of Buckpasser, 2-year-old champion of 1965 and Horse of the Year in 1966. Among her other foals were Bupers and Bureaucracy. Here in the 43rd running of this stakes test, #1 FLORA DORA, takes a class drop (-3), and is the overall speed leader in this field racing at, or about, a mile and seventy yards on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUNS" in each of her last three outings, hitting the board in a pair, including a "POWER RUN WI" to break her maiden, facing better company (+7) in her 3rd race back. #4 SCATOOSH has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four straight, including a maiden-breaking, "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start. The morning line favorite is #5 ALTO BELLE, who comes off a BLISTERING, 19-length, "POWER RUN WI" to break her respective maiden in her last start ... she is taking a "step-up" in class (+6) this afternoon.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hawthorne Harness: Saturday 1/23 Analysis
By Jeremey Day

DRF HARNESS

Best Bet (1 - 4 / $3.40): PREEMPTIVE BID (4th)

Spot Play: JONES BEACH (5th)


Race 1

(9) MICRO FORCE gets sent out for a hot barn and will offer a big price. (1) BIG FOOTED BUTCH has flashed the most ability but has some question marks coming into the race off a layoff. (2) JETHRO gelding should be sharper in his third career start after some learning miles.

Race 2

In a tough race to gauge, (1) IGETAGOODFEELING raced well from a tough post last out and looks to be in line for a much better trip. (5) PEACE LOVE PACE faces tougher and looks to offer low value; command a price. (2) THE REAL TONE gets sent out for one of the top barns in the country but didn't show much signs of life last week; use caution.

Race 3

(1) MAKE IT WORK veteran pacer is as game as they come and if close late can find a way to win. (9) B R FLYING DALI has been sharp despite getting picked off late last week. (7) MAJOR WAY comes into the race off an easy victory; threat.

Race 4

(5) PREEMPTIVE BID was in too stout last start but should be much better in this spot; driver's choice. (8) REX PASSUS has burned cash in two straight at this level but has been competitive against tougher. (4) GRAVELSINMYTRAVEL picks up a good driver change and just missed from a tough spot in this class.

Race 5

(1) JONES BEACH has now gone two big efforts in a row. The pacer was the driver's choice and is dangerous with an easy early lead. (8) ONTARIO SUCCESS will look to make it three straight open wins; short price. (7) LONEWOLF CURRIER pacer has been knocking on the door but gets a negative driver change; use underneath.

Race 6

(1) RUNINTHRUDABRIDLE drops back in for a tag in a much easier spot. (2) TEQUILA BABE mare probably needed her last start off a month and has room to improve. (10) G'S HIGH SHOOTER earned a nice victory last out but needs a good setup with the tough post.

Race 7

(3) A COOL CARD takes a significant drop in class; versatile. (9) SOMESTARSOMEWHERE looks to offer good value and can pick up the pieces in the right scenario. (1) ICE SCRAPER will be blazing away early as always, but has not had much late fight in recent starts; command a price.

Race 8

(6) MYSTICAL WALTER six-year-old gelding was really sharp last week and faces weaker. (5) OLD MAN RIVER was in over his head last race but is also finds an easier spot to do some damage. (7) MAJOR BLUE COAT takes the biggest drop of all and could be ready for a better effort.

Race 9

(7) ROCKIN THE HOUSE gets sent out for capable connections down in class. (6) SOME HEART THROB has just been racing evenly but can hit the ticket with a good setup. (5) BOOGIE NIGHTS was sharp the start prior before coming up empty last week; use underneath.

Race 10

(6) A STITCH IN TIME was closing with authority late last week against a better bunch. (7) SUNSET DREAMER is not to be taking lightly as the pacer keeps blossoming with age. (2) COMPANY MAN will be racing on the lead or in the pocket most likely; threat.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Saturday 1/23 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,4,5,6/3,5,8/1,2,8/2,5,6/2,9 = $43.20

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,6/2,9/1,4,5,9/3,5,7,8 = $96

LATE PICK 4: 3,5,7,8/3,5,8/1,3,5/1,5 = $72

MEET STATS: 206 - 625 / $1101.90 BEST BETS: 33 - 57 / $112.90

SPOT PLAYS: 16 - 57 / $183.80

Best Bet: WARRAWEE PROTON (2nd)

Spot Play: BIEBER HANOVER (10th)


Race 1

(5) TOTAL LEE was on too much cover last week when the pace picked up late but still closed okay. She can take this if she starts her move earlier. (6) LIGHTS GO OUT has been racing well but with her typical style needs a bit of luck to pass them all. (2) BAROCKEY drops and is logical but likely to be overbet.

Race 2

(3) WARAWEE PROTON made a decisive move in the third 1/4 to beat most of these last week and could double up here with a similarly aggressive drive. (8) GUILTYWITHANEXCUSE roared to the top early then chased a heavy chalk home last week in a good effort. He is a threat to wire these. (5) AMIGO DE GRANDE came up with his best effort in several months last week and further improvement here wouldn't be a shock.

Race 3

(8) WINE PHOTO had some trot late last time after getting outsprinted early. It appears the early lead is his for the taking here which makes all the difference for him; top call. (2) GLIDING BOY raced okay vs. better now comes up tagged here and is a threat in this weak field. (1) S J MOORE also drops back to a class where he fits much better and should get a decent trip here.

Race 4

(6) VEGAS ROCKS went a huge trip to win last time he was tagged on Dec. 19. He should get an aggressive steer here. (5) UF BETTORS HANOVER parlayed a good trip into an upset win as an overlay last week. The short field should play into his hand and he is a threat to repeat. (2) UFDRAGONS ROCKET started up too late last week and despite having good late pace to offer, was too far back to make an impact. He can take this with a better trip.

Race 5

(9) AMERICAN ROCK races in a class where he last won 4 starts back and should be put into the race early here. (2) MACH PRIDE was close to some insane battling early in the mile last week and still stuck around late. He can get a big piece of this from close range. (7) LETS WAIT AND SEE raced great off the claim last week and will be coming late again.

Race 6

(5) MUSCLE MATTERS faces easier here and returns to a 7-day cycle. He should be leaving hard for position in a field he can beat. (4) SUMMIT CITY NATE roared up late last time and the improved post gives him a chance to get involved earlier here. (9) ELDORADO OF GOLD beat softer easily and looked good doing it; he's not out of this.

Race 7

(8) BILBO HANOVER made a premature 3-wide move before the 1/2 last week and paid the price but raced huge, considering. A slightly more patient steer gets it done here. (3) MOHAWK WARRIOR has been solid all winter and racing back in a week should make him even tougher despite facing better. (7) AVATARTIST made two moves early then stopped on a track that was killing early speed. That line is better than it looks. He has an upset chance here.

Race 8

(5) DIGGIN IN brushed and crushed easier last week and is one of three evenly-matched contenders to consider. (3) CAJON LIGHTNING is the one to beat on paper but has missed 4 weeks which could leave him vulnerable here. (8) BRINGHOME THEBLUE continues to race well every start and is hard to toss, even from the widest post.

Race 9

(3) PRESCOTTS HOPE tried a come-from-behind approach last week which isn't his best style. He can beat these if sent early. (5) ERLE DALE N interestingly comes up tagged for $75K here after winning two straight Preferreds. He is an obvious threat but has also had extremely good trips the past three starts. (1) RISE UP NOW motored home last time but was beaten by one that enjoyed a better trip. He rates highly here.

Race 10

(1) BEIBER HANOVER looked loaded the entire trip last week and when Henry asked him he easily blew by the leaders. He is vastly-improved since the claim on Dec. 3 and will likely offer a square price here; top call. (5) IWILLNOTBEMACHED dusted much easier last week but took a new life's mark doing it. He is another that is hot right now. (8) MACH CODE was a decent sophomore and looks ready to do some damage based on his qualifiers. (4) PISTOPACKINPIPER has faced an unbeaten colt in his past two and exiting the Snowshoe series should help here. (6) JIMMY BE GOOD is in great form and can make the High-5 ticket despite the class raise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Meadowlands: Saturday 1/23 Analysis
By Derick Giwner

DRF HARNESS

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 5 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 9 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 71 - 243 / $399.50 BEST BETS: 9 - 18 / $33.90

Best Bet: STITCH IN TIME (1st)

Spot Play: SANTANNA STAR (2nd)


Race 1

(6) STITCH IN TIME chased in a very fast mile last time out and now gets to drop to the basement condition. This looks like his week. (2) P L HOUDINI gets his nose on the gate this week, which is a huge deal for a horse with breaking issues. The speed is there. (7) HILL I AM looked sharp in his second qualifier but I’m going to wait for an easier spot or a better post.

Race 2

(6) SANTANA STAR raced evenly in a quick mile behind others which would clearly be favored in this spot. Four-year-old should be tighter in his second start after a month on the shelf. (8) MISSILE J showed something with a much more professional effort in his second career start. If he had an inside post I’d use him on top. (3) HONEY I’M HOME had some stretch traffic in that qualifier and wasn’t exactly asked for top speed.

Race 3

(4) WINDSUN GALLIANO comes off a win and gets the weak call against a field that hardly inspires confidence. (7) LUKAS HALL drops down for a barn that is good on that angle. (10) SHARP EDGE should be good to get a piece of the pie.

Race 4

(7) BOOGIEWOOGIEBRIAN hails from a barn that is capable of bringing in a sneaky horse and this guy does return here at a reduced level; worth a shot in a blank field. (1) ADDWATER draws inside this week and may be handled more aggressively. (6) PEDRO’S DREAM could be interesting if hustled to the front.

Race 5

(5) UF FAST FEELIN was used hard last time and paid the price. Now he drops to the bottom claiming level and appears the clear choice. (4) SHAVING MUG picked up some confidence in Freehold and has had past success here. (7) AMPED UP is another dropping down; using underneath.

Race 6

(2) MONTERA raced okay last time and picks up a higher percentage driver while facing a blank field. (5) UF LARRY ALLTHEWAY never got into the race last time. He is better than that. (9) MAGICAL TELF N hasn’t won in a while but seems to be racing well enough to get into the exotics.

Race 7

(5) THAT’S MY OPINION responded very nicely to the change in tactics last time and we all know he is fast enough to handle tougher foes. (9) HOPE FOR BADLANDS comes off a race you can completely toss. Tonight he faces a softer group and should improve accordingly. (2) MOONLIGHT RANSOM comes off a win versus lesser and drew well this week. He can make some noise in here.

Race 8

(5) VICE CONSUL N put in a credible effort in his first stateside attempt and can build off that effort against an evenly-matched field. (3) STARSKY’S DREAM N was just okay after a layoff but continues to lure Tetrick off other contenders. I’m guessing we’ll see something good from him soon. (1) PANSFORMATIVE is too sharp to ignore.

Race 9

(6) SWEET BEACH drops out of the Open into a class where he proved victorious back in December. (2) REAL NICE is razor sharp and with enough class to keep it going for a while. (9) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE & (5) SHOOTER’S DREAM are the other two exiting Open company; either is capable of winning.

Race 10

(4) GOLD ROCKS gets post and class relief tonight and has a big chance. (9) HERE COMES SWIFTY closed well from post 10 a week ago and is stuck outside once again. With any kind of trip he can win. (2) SO TAKE THAT is another dropping down the class ladder; wakes up?

Race 11

(7) COBALT MAN gets some needed class relief. This isn’t the easiest NW7500 around but he has a big shot. (1) DULL ROAR raced well against better when last at the Meadowlands; worth using. (2) FRATERNITY is so sharp. Others may be a touch faster but if they race the track will likely be very wet and negate the advantage. (8) MUDSLIDE is capable given the right trip.

Race 12

(3) BENJAMINBANNEKER N found a different gear and closed well once his earplugs were pulled last time. He takes a meaningful drop in class and can get the job done if the pace is fast enough for his rally. (7) INTHEBLINKOFANEYE is plenty fast and should take them a long way. (4) AROCKIN HANOVER couldn’t be any sharper but this field is much better than what he has been facing. (2) CASTLE FLIGHT is down in class and capable of stepping up.

Race 13

(6) CASHENDASH HANOVER comes off an impressive win at Dover and looks ready to handle the Meadowlands for a Davis barn that is 4 for 8 this meet. (4) OUREA NOURRIR has been chasing another sharp Dylan Davis trainee in Dinner At The Met. If the pace is quick he’ll pounce late. (1) ALL WEEK is sharp, has early speed and an inside post.

Race 14

(3) VICTORY AHEAD faces a much easier field this time around and should bring a top effort. (1) EIGHT TEN EOM has been racing well; main danger. (7) GIANT SLAYER has some early speed in his arsenal; drops. (8) SUITS gets a new driver.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Saturday 1/23 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 15 - 45 / $121.60

BEST BETS: 2 - 4 / $8.60

Best Bet: URBANA BAYAMA (2nd)

Spot Play: PHIL YOUR BOOTS (8th)


Race 1

(4) RONNY BUGATTI has been second best in his last two and clearly can smell victory. (1) ROCK TO GLORY was second best last week sitting a trip; live trip again is likely. (5) HI HO STEVERINO is always a fit at this level.

Race 2

(5) URBANA BAYAMA was raging with pace last week; repeats. (3) FREESPIN N gets needed class and post relief for Bamond. (1) THAT'LL BE THE REI was second best last out following the winner; should be included here.

Race 3

(1) RU READY TO ROCK toured the track last week in a needed start; big player with the move inside. (6) RANCOUSY qualified well at The Meadowlands and should be ready for this assignment. (2) RIVER RUN FOR RYAN will be close up throughout.

Race 4

(3) SNAP TO IT A gets class and post relief and should be aggressively handled. (1) SANTANNA ONE was okay last out; should be okay from this spot. (5) SUPREME MACH N can be considered despite losing Dube.

Race 5

(2) BACKUP A is another Bamond trainee on the card in a live spot. (1) CAUTION SIGNS was a no-match third last week to a couple of tough ones. (4) SOHO JACKMAN A has been second best in three of four.

Race 6

(5) RED HOT HERBIE was held at bay by the sharp (6) NOT AFRAID last week; maybe the post position reversal can help his cause. The latter does nothing but make money for Takter. (4) DOT DOT DOT DASH was too far back to threaten the top two last out; needs to be closer.

Race 7

(7) CYCLONE KIWI N chased a good one last week and was second best; Bartlett should be on the move early again. (4) TWIN B HOLLISTER finished strongly last out and is a threat. (2) STOLEN CAR hadn't won in forever, now suddenly looks for three straight.

Race 8

(5) PHIL YOUR BOOTS never got involved last week from post eight but should be firing hard from this spot. (4) HUGH HEFNER N has done nothing wrong since arriving from Down Under. (7) MELMERBY BEACH got nailed in the final steps last out, could threaten again.

Race 9

(2) ONE THROUGH TEN didn't show much in his last two starts but this may be a spot for Dube to get aggressive. (3) VALIDUS DEO gets a free ride looking for two straight. (7) JENERAL PATTON paced a big back half for the score last week.

Race 10

(6) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE was stellar in defeat last week and looks ready for a breakout performance. (2) WATKINS raced well in his last handful at the added-distances. (5) CLEMENTINE DREAM looks for another at this same level.

Race 11

(5) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP returned locally last week and won easily; he should easily repeat facing similar. (2) DRUNKEN DESIRE A gets class and post relief. (6) POLAK A steps up off a game score but loses a post edge.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Saturday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) Dreams to Reality, 8-1
(5th) Sunny Prize, 3-1

Delta Downs (6th) Magical Stride, 6-1
(9th) Extra Charlie, 7-2

Fair Grounds (1st) Yabbay, 3-1
(10th) Zarby's Derby Day, 9-2


Golden Gate Fields (5th) Silver Dollar, 7-2
(9th) Aperfectdaytofly, 6-1


Gulfstream Park (5th) Endogeny, 4-1
(10th) I'm Wide Awake, 5-1


Mahoning Valley (6th) Twisted Facts, 7-2
(8th) Gangster Mason, 7-2


Oaklawn Park (5th) Raofthesun, 7-2
(6th) Sassy Moe, 6-1


Penn National (2nd) Officer Fred, 3-1
(3rd) Northern Call, 9-2


Sam Houston (2nd) Gohar, 3-1
(9th) Special U F O, 8-1


Santa Anita (1st) Giant Ego, 4-1
(9th) True Brilliance, 3-1


Sunland Park (5th) Mesquall, 3-1
(6th) Settling Star, 6-1


Tampa Bay Downs (3rd) Bandolera's Gold, 5-1
(9th) Tiger Moth, 4-1


Turf Paradise (1st) He's a Beast, 3-1
(6th) Cowboy's Rule, 4-1


Turfway Park (2nd) Tower East, 6-1
(9th) Shut Up Chris, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting Jan. 23 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

I mentioned earlier this week that I felt obligated to preview every game played by No. 8 SMU going forward as the Mustangs are college basketball's only unbeaten left. And I actually think Coach Larry Brown's team had a good shot of falling Saturday evening at Temple. Alas, that game was postponed by that winter storm crushing the Northeast -- as have some others, including No. 16 Providence at No. 4 Villanova -- so it will now be played Sunday. I believe that increases Temple's chances even more, by the way. But since I can't look at that game for a busy Saturday, here are three others.

No. 20 Duke at NC State (+2.5)

A 2 p.m. ET start on CBS -- assuming the game is played as the Carolinas are being blasted by the winter storm too. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski might want the game postponed to get his guys more practice time as the Blue Devils (14-5, 3-3) have stunningly lost three in a row for the first time since the 2006-07 team dropped its final four games. That was also the last time Duke fell out of the Top 25, and that will happen for sure with another loss here; it might even with a close win. Duke, which hadn't lost three straight to unranked teams since the 1968-69 season, was beaten 64-62 at home by Syracuse on Monday. There's still a ton of talent on this team, but it's a very thin group since losing big man Amile Jefferson to a foot injury. He remains out indefinitely. Monday's loss to the Orange was already Duke's fifth, on Jan. 18. The last time a Blue Devils team had five losses on Jan. 18 was in 1995-96. The post-game news conference of the year was when Coach K addressed the media following that loss as he kept saying the word "amazing" instead of criticizing the refs for what he thought was blown call in the final seconds. Well-played, Coach K!

NC State (11-8, 1-5 ACC) has way too much talent to be 1-5 in the ACC, but maybe the Wolfpack are about to turn things around following a 78-61 win Tuesday at Pittsburgh, which is never an easy place to win. ACC leading scorer Anthony "Cat" Barber had 31 points for NCSU. He just hasn't been getting much support. Barber did vs. Pitt as Abdul-Malik Abu had 16 points and 10 rebounds. The Wolfpack have beaten the Blue Devils in Raleigh in three of the last four meetings, including when Duke was ranked No. 2 last season, 87-75.

Key trends: NC State is 2-5 ATS in its past seven following a win. It is 1-4 ATS in its past five at home. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: Just can't see the Blue Devils dropping four straight. Take Duke.

No. 7 Maryland at No. 11 Michigan State (-3.5)

Big Ten game at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. And I'm sticking with a theme here of a potential national title contender on a shocking three-game losing streak as that's also the case with former No. 1 team Michigan State (16-4, 3-4), although I always thought Sparty was a tad overrated. This team wasn't supposed to be as good as last year's that surprisingly reached the Final Four. Denzel Valentine was the national player of the year favorite before he went down with an injury that cost him four games. He hasn't been quite as good since returning. You can understand Sparty losing at home to a good Iowa team and even last Sunday at Wisconsin by just a point. But falling in East Lansing to Nebraska on Wednesday shouldn't happen. That was also a one-point loss, and for the second straight game Valentine couldn't deliver a potential winning shot. The Spartans also miss point guard Tum Tum Nair, who has missed the past two due a foot injury and is out indefinitely. His injury has forced Valentine into almost a full-time point guard role.

Maryland (17-2, 6-1) is clearly the Big Ten's most talented team with likely 2016 lottery picks in freshman Diamond Stone and sophomore Melo Trimble. The Terps have won two straight since a close loss at Michigan, but they were lucky to escape at home against Northwestern on Tuesday, winning 62-56 in OT. Stone made a pivotal three-point play with 1:13 left in OT and Maryland won despite scoring only 17 points in the second half. It had 14 in the five-minute overtime. Northwestern took 17 more shots than Maryland and made two more baskets (23-21), but the Terps scored 16 points from the free-throw line compared to five for Northwestern. In conference play, Stone is averaging 17.6 points per game while shooting 65.0 percent from the field. Maryland won both regular-season meetings with MSU last year, but the Spartans won in the Big Ten Tournament.

Key trends: The Terps are 7-2 ATS in their past nine road games. They are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 vs. the Big Ten. MSU is 2-7 ATS in its past nine Big Ten games.

I'm leaning: Maryland.

No. 12 Arizona at California (+2)

Pac-12 matchup at 8:30 pm. ET on ESPN. Arizona (16-3, 4-2) has bounced back from being swept in the Los Angeles swing -- by a combined five points -- with three straight blowout wins. The Wildcats won 71-57 at Stanford on Thursday, their 12th straight victory in the series. Arizona, which entered averaging 93.6 points in Pac-12 games, got 19 points from Gabe York and held Stanford to just 30.6 percent from the field. The Cats remain without two players in Allonzo Trier and Elliott Pitts. Trier was lost for 4-6 weeks recently to a broken right hand. He has missed the past three games. The freshman was averaging 14.8 points and 3.5 assists. Pitts, a reserve, has been out weeks for mysterious reasons.

California (13-6, 3-3) began life without one of its best players on Thursday but beat Arizona State 75-70 to end a three-game losing streak. That player would be senior guard Tyrone Wallace, who will miss 4-6 weeks with broken bone in his hand. He leads the Bears with 15.4 points, 4.6 assists and 1.1 steals per game and is third with 5.1 rebounds per game. The earliest he could return would be Feb. 18 at Washington. Seldom-used Sam Singer moved into the starting lineup vs. ASU and played quite well with six points, six rebounds and eight assists in 35 minutes. Cal is 12-0 at home this season. The Bears were blown out by Arizona three times last year.

Key trends: Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 after a win. They are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 on the road. Cal is 1-7 ATS in its past 11 following an ATS loss. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings.

I'm leaning: Arizona.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's six-pack

-- Yoenis Cespedes gets $75M for three years from the Mets; he can opt out next winter, but why would he want to?

-- Wright State 73, Valparaiso 62-- Big upset in Horizon League.

-- 227 baseball players made their major league debut last season.

-- Hornets 120, Magic 116 OT-- Kemba Walker had 40 points for the winners.

-- Warriors 122, Pacers 110-- Steve Kerr's return is a triumphant one.

-- I listen to stories about Jim Harbaugh recruiting and the thought crosses my mind, "Are we 100% sure this guy is sane?"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday

719 NEBRASKA OMAHA @ 720 ORAL ROBERTS 8:00 PM

Take: NEBRASKA OMAHA +1

One of the day’s more entertaining games could well be this Summit League clash between the Mavericks and Golden Eagles. The game figures to be very fast-paced and as the betting line suggests, this should be highly competitive.

I’m looking at the Omaha side as I like the way they match up with Oral Roberts from a categorical standpoint. The most important edge to me is ball security, which in a potential racehorse duel, could be really key. The Mavericks take better care of the ball than do the Golden Eagles, and they’re also stronger on the defensive side of this equation.

Oral Roberts is dangerous as they’re very adept at knocking down the three-ball, although the Eagles are by no means solely dependent on the long shots. But that’s clearly the one big advantage for ORU, as the visitors are one of the poorest teams in all of D1 on three-point accuracy. But I think it’s important to note that the Mavericks are well aware of this shortcoming and do an excellent job of getting good looks from closer range. UNO is nailing very impressive 53% of their deuces, and they’ve actually gotten even better in that regard since conference play got underway.

Oral Roberts had won three straight prior to losing in lopsided fashion on Thursday against South Dakota State. It should also be noted that the two losses prior to the modest winning streak were without Obi Emegano, so in spite of the bad loss against the Jackrabbits, ORU is in okay form.

But the Mavericks have been even better. They’ve won seven of their last eight, with the only defeat a game in which they just came out really flat against a shorthanded IPFW entry and fell way behind. Even in that game, however, UNO came roaring back and forced OT before falling to the Mastadons.

This is the first of a critical two-game conference trip for Omaha. Next up is a visit to South Dakota State in a game likely to have big ramifications as far as the league race is concerned. As for this game, it’s looking to be anything but easy. Nevertheless, the data I give the most weight to favors the visitors, and I don’t see Oral Roberts being able to successfully discourage the Mavericks from forcing their preferred tempo. I’ll side with Nebraska-Omaha as the smallest of dogs tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Saturday, Jan. 23, 2016 10:35 PM EST

(519) LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS (520) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Take: (520) PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, January 23, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Lakers and the Blazers in Portland. The second of a back to back spot for the Lakers after hosting the Spurs last night. LA is short on defense and depth, 14-39-1 ATS against the Western Conference and 6-17 ATS vs. the NBA Northwest. Portland is home and rested, winning 4 of 6. The Blazers are 5-0 ATS playing on two days rest and 9-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. And the Lakers are 15-38 ATS in the last 53 meetings, including 7-20 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Portland. Play Portland.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mike Lundin

Bucks vs Pelicans

5* NBA Free Pick New Orleans Pelicans

The New Orleans Pelicans are playing some good solid basketball again and they've been rewarded with the win in four of their last five games. They shot 53.5% from the field in Thursday's 115-99 win against the Pistons and Anthony Davis has averaged 33.5 points in his past two games. Davis averaged 31.5 points, 11 rebounds and five assists in last season's two meetings with the Bucks and the Pels have covered the spread in four of the last five when hosting Milwaukee. The Bucks had a three-game winning streak come to an end when they lost 102-98 at Houston last night, and even though they're usually fairly strong in back-to-back situations I think they'll be in for a tough game here.