Saturday 1/17/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Search
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Jeff Saad of Las Vegas Sports Services

1/17/2015: Saturday NBA Free Pick:

Blazers at Memphs. Portland is a dog again and off a loss last night but this team is so strong, tops in the NBA in rebounding and points allowed. The Blazers are 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in Memphis, too.

PLAY PORTLAND
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Mr. Vegas

Mr Vegas Bonus Play for Saturday, Jan 17, 2015: Portland at Memphis.

A pair of powerhouse defensive teams meet on short rest. Portland is No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed and had to play last night. Memphis is 9-3 under the total playing on no days rest and when these teams meet the under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis.

Play Portland/Memphis under.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Saturday 2:00PM NCAAB

(693) EASTERN ILLINOIS at (694) MOREHEAD STATE

Take: (694) MOREHEAD STATE -5

I’m very cognizant of what I consider to be adjustments by the oddsmakers. Long story short, when the number on a game is considerably off the power ratings, trust the guys putting up the lines. The vast majority of college basketball games are right where they’re supposed to be, but when there’s a deviation, it’s an attention grabber for me. This Ohio Valley Conference hookup is a good example.

There’s nothing not to like about Eastern Illinois right now. Jay Spoonhour, son of the late, great Charlie Spoonhour, is doing a phenomenal job with the unheralded Panthers. This team is on an 8-0 rampage, and they’re perfect in the OVC at 5-0.

Meanwhile, Morehead State has labored to a 7-12 mark. No doubt part of that ugly record is due to a very tough non-league slate, so it’s not like the Eagles have been a terrible team. But they’re certainly not in the form today’s opponent is flashing.

Rather than use my own power ratings for the purposes of this illustration, I chose three of the more respected sites to cite for this analysis. Sagarin has EIU at #165, Morehead at #195, and makes the Eagles less than -2. Kenpom has similar numbers, with the Panthers checking in at #169, Morehead #201, and he’s got the Eagles -2. Same story with the KPI numbers, albeit it’s a tighter matchup on the DIFF’s, but Morehead would still just be a small home favorite.

Yet the number on this game is at -5. So either the oddmakers have bungled it, or there’s a good reason for the higher impost. I’ll go with the latter option and here’s why.

As well as Eastern Illinois is playing, it’s a team not used to this type of success and they’re off an absolutely huge win as a pretty big underdog at Eastern Kentucky. That doesn’t automatically mean letdown as they play at another tough venue less than 48 hours later, but it’s certainly a possibility.

On the flip side, Morehead State is off what was probably their best performance of the season to date, a much needed momentum builder. I think this is a team that could get on a roll in the OVC. As discouraging as all those non-league losses were, and I do believe the Eagles got a bit discouraged along the way, they’re entirely capable of getting hot now that they’re back at their own level.

I’m thrilled to see the younger Coach Spoon chiseling out a rep for himself at Eastern Illinois. I thought Jay did a terrific job here at UNLV when he was far less experienced and that was under some tough conditions as well. He’s a coach on the rise and this program is no longer a pushover by any stretch. But this is a difficult spot and those setting the betting lines have sent a message with the line being where it is. I’ll say the house has gotten it right and will take my chances with Morehead State minus the points.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Jim Feist

NBA Comp Pick for Saturday, January 17, 2015: 7:05 PM ET

(501) INDIANA PACERS VS (502) CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Take: (502) CHARLOTTE HORNETS

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Saturday, January 17, 2015 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Indiana Pacers and Charlotte Hornets. Close matchup here between a pair of 15-win teams. The Pacers have won seven road games while Indiana has eight home wins. In the weak east, you never know, one of these teams could still sneak into a playoff spot with a losing record. Today I like the Hornets. Two reasons, first, Indiana is playing its second of a back to back spot here. This spot is never easy, but more so for teams that are not deep on their bench. Second, I like the recent play of the Hornets at home. Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in their last six games, 18-8-1 ATS the last 27 against the NBA Central and 7-3 ATS their last 10 when they have two days rest. You have a tired Indiana club playing at a well rested Hornets. Take Charlotte has your Bonus Play for Saturday.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Chip Chirimbes

Rhode Island vs. Massachusetts 2:30 ET

Bonus Play Rhode Island

Rams (+) over Minutemen- I usually don't get involved in obscure match-ups like this but a 'winner is a winner' and I believe that I have the right side here. Both clubs are coming losses but there are some key factors that I can't ignore. To start with the road team is 22-8 ATS in the last 30 meetings and even though the Minutemen have won the last six in this series the underdog is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. It just comes up Rhode Island in my eyes. Take the RAMS!
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Marc Lawrence

Ole Miss vs. Arkansas

Play - Ole Miss.

Edges - Rebels 11-0-2 ATS in this series with revenge. Razorbacks: 6-17 ATS after Tennessee; and 1-5 ATS before Alabama. With Arkansas looking dead ahead to a revenge rematch with the Tide, and having just had their 7-game win streak snapped by Tennessse on Tuesday night, we recommend a 1-unit play on Mississippi. Thank you and good luck as always.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Doc's Sports

Rutgers vs. Minnesota

Free College Basketball Prediction From Doc's Sports: Take #520 Minnesota over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 17)

On the hardwood, I am still waiting for Minnesota to play a complete game for 40 minutes, and believe it will come against Rutgers on Saturday at the Barn. Minnesota has started Big 10 play off on a bad note, but they have too much experience not to put it all together at some point. This will be the second straight road game for Rutgers and a long trip west from New Jersey. Nebraska blew out Rutgers, and we will lay the wood against them again today.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Scott Spreitzer

Syracuse vs. Clemson

Bonus Play Syracuse

I'm recommending a play on Syracuse on Saturday afternoon. The Orange started slowly this season after losing three starters from last year's squad. But we saw the turnaround begin in their 82-77 OT loss to Villanova as a 10-point underdog. The Orange looked in control for most of that game and while they didn't put the finishing touches on a win, they did build off of the strong performance. Since then, Syracuse has won seven straight games. The Orange have held their last five opponents to 59 ppg on 37.8% shooting and the Jim Boeheim matchup zone is working well, holding those opponents to 5.6 made treys per game on 26.7% shooting from behind the arc. Syracuse has been taking care of the basketball on the offensive end, posting a smoking hot 1.71 assist-turnover ratio, averaging over 16 apg and less than 10 tpg in their last five games. I expect more of the same against a permissive Clemson squad that has forced just 5.5 tpg in their last five. The Orange enter on a 20-10 ATS run against teams that force no more than 12 tpg. Meanwhile, the Tigers have covered just 4-of-17 at home against teams that average at least 16 apg. Clemson is shooting horribly over the same time span, making less than 20 FGs per game and they aren't too hot from the deep perimeter, playing right into the famous Syracuse zone. No Chris McCullough (ACL) for the rest of the season for the Orange, but I expect others to pick up the slack. I'm recommending a play on Syracuse on Saturday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Will Rogers

Manchester United vs. Queens Park Rangers

1* Bonus Play Manchester United

Manchester United put up a miserable performance last Sunday as they lost 1-0 at home to Southampton. I'm expecting them to bounce back right away today though, facing a QPR side that is win-less over its last five games, losing three.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. QPR's Back Four - The Rangers defensive line is made up of has-beens, never-will-beens and never-was-beens. To put it bluntly, they're lacking defensive stability big-time, and have conceded a league high 36 goals over 21 games. Promising Steven Caulker may be a lone exception, but his partner in central defense 35 year old Richard Dunne who will replace 36 year old Rio Ferdinand is always good for at least 3-4 own goals per season. United won the first meeting 4-0 at Old Trafford and we could be in for another thrashing.

2. Road Warriors - United's play on the road has improved over recent games, and they're undefeated in their last six away from home all competitions, winning at both Southampton and Arsenal. They've won both of the last two meetings at Loftus Road 2-0.

3. X-Factor - Juan Mata is looking for intricate through balls more than he's shooting. Maybe he should test opponents keepers more often as he's scored five goals on seven shots this season.

Selection: This is a play on Manchester United (Free)
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Art Aronson

New York Islanders at Montreal Canadiens 7:05PM

Reason: 1* Bonus Play Montreal Canadiens

I played against the Islanders last night and they would get the better of me, but I think they stumble here after coming from behind to beat the Penguins 6-3. Here?s a perfect spot for Montreal to take advantage of. There?s no question that New York has been the surprise of the first half, it leads the East by one point over the Lightning. The Isles have actually performed very well in the second game of back-to-backs, but I think will finally run out of gas here. After winning nine of ten, Montreal comes in looking to break out of a sluggish 1-2-1 stretch, most recently falling 4-1 at Ottawa on Thursday. But if history is any precedence, then the Habs have to be loving their chances today, they?re 8-1-4 the last 13 in the series at the Bell Centre; also note that the Canadiens are 11-7 (+3.8 units) vs. teams with winning records this year. I think this is a pretty fair price, consider a second look at MONTREAL in this one.

AAA Sports
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Kyle Hunter

Cal Poly vs. CS-Northridge

*3 Star NCAA BB Free Pick* Cal Poly

The Cal State Northridge Matadors are coming off an upset win at Cal Santa Barbara on Thursday night. Still, this has been a really bad season thus far for the Matadors. Northridge enters this game at a miserable 2-10-1 against the spread so far this year. The Matadors host Cal Poly on Saturday night, and these two teams couldn't be more different. Northridge is an undisciplined team that makes far too many costly mistakes. They also like to run and push the tempo. Cal Poly is the slowest paced team in the Big West by a large margin. Cal Poly also does a great job of taking care of the ball and avoiding key mistakes. Northridge lost both times to Cal Poly last year. I like the Mustangs to go on the road and win and cover here. Take Cal Poly.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Newsletter College Basketball Prediction From Robert Ferringo

Take ‘Over’ 143.5 – Duke at Louisville (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 17)
I don’t play a lot of college basketball totals, but when I do I am usually dead-on with them, such my as two winners this week with the Michigan State-Northwestern ‘Over’ and the Syracuse-Wake Forest ‘Over’. Both were no doubters. This one will be close, but I definitely like the play on the ‘under’. Duke has given up an average of nearly 90 points – 90 POINTS! – in their last two games. Both of these teams are in the Top 90 in the country in adjusted tempo, and they both love to play fast. Louisville has been held below 72 points in just one ACC game – against sloppy Clemson – and I can’t see Duke keeping them below 75. Also, the early start time to this game could be a benefit for the offense. When two teams play a huge national game like this at night sometimes the players have too long to think about it and they tighten up and come out flat. I think that the noon tip will lead to a free-for-all early in the game, and it should be end-to-end action. I think that somebody is getting to 80 points in this one, and I have a very hard time seeing this one staying ‘under’ the total.



Newsletter College Basketball Prediction From Doc’s Sports

Take #520 Minnesota over Rutgers (Noon, Saturday, Jan. 17)
I am still waiting for Minnesota to play a complete game for 40 minutes, and believe it will come against Rutgers on Saturday at the Barn. Minnesota has started Big 10 play off on a bad note, but they have too much experience not to put it all together at some point. This will be the second straight road game for Rutgers and a long trip west from New Jersey. Nebraska blew out Rutgers, and we will lay the wood against them again today.



Newsletter College Basketball Prediction From Mike Davis

Take #563 Florida over Georgia (2 p.m., Saturday, January 17)
My spreadsheet has the Gators winning this game by a final score of 69-60. The key components in this matchup are: Florida’s Defensive efficiency, Florida’s ability to defend on the interior coupled with UGA’s inability to score from behind the arc, and overall talent. Florida has a better basketball team than Georgia, but they have yet to play up to their potential this season. However, their home loss to UConn two Saturdays ago may have been the wake-up call the Gators needed. Since that loss, they have won on the road at South Carolina and destroyed Mississippi State at home. The Gators own the Dawgs on the hardwood. Florida has won 6 out of 7, and they have defeated UGA by a total of 72 points in their last three meetings. I will roll with the Gators this Saturday in Athens.



Newsletter College Basketball Prediction From Strike Point Sports

Take Texas over West Virginia (6:15 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 17)
We’ve given out three straight Bonus Play winners in this newsletter, and now we want to go for No. 4 in a row! The Big 12 has already shown itself to be a conference with depth. We saw West Virginia dominate Oklahoma earlier in the week, but here I see them slipping up in Austin. There aren’t many free wins this season in the league, but here is a tough ask to score a road win at Texas. The Longhorns come through with their home-court edge, and we see them staying ahead of whatever the number is here.



Newsletter NHL Hockey Prediction From Doc’s Sports

Take #7 Carolina (+115) over Ottawa (7 p.m., Saturday, Jan. 17)
The Carolina Hurricanes continue to fly under the radar this season, but that won’t be the case for long. They’ve won four of their last six contests, and the two losses were by a single goal to the Predators and Blues. Defense has been the key for the Hurricanes this season as they’re limiting the amount of scoring chances and getting tremendous efforts from goaltender Cam Ward on a nightly basis. They get the Ottawa Senators on Saturday night in a game that they should be the favorite. Ottawa has been wildly inconsistent this season and has dropped six of eight recently. They haven’t demonstrated very good chemistry this season despite some talented pieces. The perception is that the Senators are the better team based on the overall records, but right now Carolina is the playing much better hockey. Take the Canes.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,119,809
Messages
13,573,445
Members
100,871
Latest member
Legend813
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com