Saturday 1/17/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Preview: Ducks (29-10) at Kings (20-14)

Date: January 17, 2015 10:00 PM EDT

The Pacific Division-leading Anaheim Ducks would appear to have an advantage over nearly any opponent, especially one with a double-digit point deficit in the standings.

However, when the opponent is the Los Angeles Kings, that same logic may not apply.

The Ducks make the short trip to Staples Center on Saturday night for the third of five matchups with the Kings, who continue to trudge through an up-and-down campaign.

Anaheim (29-10-6) has found its rhythm over the past week, scoring four or more goals in each of its past three victories, including a 5-1 win over New Jersey on Friday.

Corey Perry scored his team-leading 19th goal and the Ducks also netted their fifth power-play tally in four contests.

"When we play for 60 minutes and we all play together, it's a sense of what we can do," Bruce Boudreau told the team's official website. "When we follow gameplans and do the right thing, its a good hockey club. When we don't, we're like any other club."

That offensive potency was present in a 6-5 shootout victory over Los Angeles (20-14-10) on Nov. 12, but went quiet three days later in a 3-2 overtime road loss to the Kings.

That victory was the first of three straight for Los Angeles, which has gone 9-9-6 since the brief surge and has won back-to-back games only twice in that span. The Kings lost for the sixth time in eight games Wednesday, 5-3 to the Devils.

"We just need more effort and a willingness to get it done," Matt Greene told the team's official site. "I'm speaking for myself, but that's what has to get better. Everybody has to get better, but it starts with yourself.

"The coaches have been doing a good job of breaking it down for us every night; it's just a matter of us showing up and doing it."

Part of the issue has been an inability to win close games. The Kings have lost 10 of 12 that have gone past regulation and their win Nov. 15 was their most recent OT victory.

That problem could crop up again given these clubs' recent history. Including shootouts, eight of the past nine regular-season matchups have been decided by one goal, as did four of their seven games in the Western Conference semifinals last season.

Los Angeles has also struggled on the penalty kill, surrendering seven goals over the last six games. The Kings are 5-11-6 when allowing a power-play goal.

"Our penalty kill is just draining us," coach Darryl Sutter said. "It takes so much out of your team. It is really disappointing."

Anaheim has taken five of its last six against the Kings, who still hold a slight edge since 2011-12 with nine victories over 17 meetings in that span.

"I think it's huge," Boudreau said of the rivalry. "I know that word is overused a lot, but they've been sitting at home for three days, and I don't think they're happy with the way it's been going. When they play us, we bring out the best in them."

Frederik Anderson has won each of his last four starts and is 2-0-1 in three career starts against Jonathan Quick, who owns a 2.49 goals-against average this season.

Perry and Ryan Getzlaf have combined for 35 goals in their 52 games against the Kings since '05-06. The Kings can counter with their own top offensive weapons Dustin Brown and Anze Kopitar, who each have tallied 20 goals against the Ducks in their careers.

Brown scored against New Jersey to break a 17-game goal drought.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Leafs exit California posting some ugly numbers
Stephen Campbell

Fresh off of a California road swing, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be glad to escape the Golden State.

In three losses against the L.A. Kings, San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks, the Leafs scored just one goal while allowing nine. The blue and white did not register a power play goal, failing on all nine opportunties with the extra man.

Toronto will be seeking a better result when they head to St. Louis for a date with the Blues Saturday. At the time of writing, the Blues were -212 moneyline favorites.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Flames look to red-hot Ortio in net vs. Sharks
Stephen Campbell

Joni Ortio will get the nod in the crease for the Calgary Flames versus San Jose Saturday.

In two appearances this season, the Finn is 2-0 and owns a .984 save percentage and a 0.50 GAA. Ortio has only allowed one goal on 63 shots.

Books have set the Sharks as -166 home moneyline faves with a total of five.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Hot and Not Report
By Mike Rose

The 2014-15 NBA betting season is wearing on, and today at VegasInsider.com, we're going to be taking a close look at the teams who are falling flat on the hardwood as we start the new year.

Oklahoma City Thunder (0-6-1 ATS in L/7) – Some of this just isn't the fault of the Thunder. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are consistently hyped up as the saviors for Oklahoma City, and they very well could end up playing that role. However, we have to remember that they are still only two players on a team which really isn't all that great, yet the oddsmakers feel that this is a truly elite team which will contend in the Western Conference this year. As a result, a 4-3 SU run in which the wins have come by five, seven, three, and eight points isn't good enough for a single cover. The Thunder are going to run into that problem for the rest of the year for as long as Durant and Westbrook are healthy. Perhaps the time will come that these two stars will be healthy enough to really make those big spreads seem warranted, but for now, you've got to stay away from the Thunder.

New York Knicks (1-9-1 ATS in L/11) – Heading over to London didn't help the Knicks any either. Can you imagine how bad this team would be if Carmelo Anthony didn't end up resigning in the Big Apple last offseason? My goodness! New York has lost 16 straight games, and the last nine of those losses have come by double digits. The Knicks haven't been favored in a game since November 22nd, and that doesn't look or feel like it is going to change any time in the near future. The only quarter of basketball which New York has been good in this year has been the fourth quarter, and the only reason for that is because other teams are laughing too hard at how badly they have outscored the Knicks through three quarters. New York has the worst margin in the league through three quarters in the NBA at -10.1 points per game, and it's really tough to cover spreads when you're constantly down by double digits heading into the fourth quarter.

Cleveland Cavaliers (1-9 ATS in L/10) – The Cavaliers have really simply failed on both ends of the court, and it is really their defense that is putting their offense into so many problems. Rebounding has been a big issue, particularly in terms of allowing offensive rebounds, and David Blatt's defense is getting extended as a result. The team has lost seven straight games, and by the time Cleveland gets back from this West Coast trip, it could be right on the cut line of the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. When LeBron James and Kevin Love joined forces with Kyrie Irving in Cleveland, it wasn't supposed to be like this. It might very well take some more time to get the Cavaliers going, but for the time being, they are really a devastating team to try to watch play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Preview: Trail Blazers (30-10) at Grizzlies (28-11)

Date: January 17, 2015 9:00 PM EDT

Top competition has bothered the Portland Trail Blazers, and their last two games have driven that point home.

The Memphis Grizzlies can further those concerns Saturday night by handing the visiting Trail Blazers their first three-game losing streak of the season.

Of the Blazers' 30 wins, 23 have come against opponents with current records under .500, including eight of their last nine. Eight of their 10 losses have come against teams with winning records.

Against the vaunted Western Conference, Portland (30-10) is 13-8 while going 17-2 against the East.

It is 12-6 on the road, but only one of those wins has come against a winning team - a 129-119 triple-overtime victory in San Antonio on Dec. 19 with the Spurs missing Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard.

Terry Stotts' team wasn't as fortunate in Friday's 110-96 loss in San Antonio, which came two days after a 100-94 home loss to the Los Angeles Clippers. Stotts recognized the difference in competition this time around.

"Obviously getting Leonard back and Patty Mills and Parker, none of those guys played last time we played them and all three of them made an impact on the game," Stotts said.

LaMarcus Aldridge had 24 points, Damian Lillard added 23, and the Blazers shot 50.0 percent and lost for the first time in six games while doing so. Wesley Matthews was held to two points and has totaled 10 in the consecutive losses while going 4 of 17 from the field.

Memphis (28-11), meanwhile, returns home with a three-game winning streak after Friday's 106-96 victory in Orlando.

Jeff Green scored a team-high 21 points in a reserve role as the newly acquired forward overcame a poor shooting night in his Grizzlies debut in Brooklyn on Wednesday. He'll now be on display before a Memphis crowd for the first time.

Green's effort came with point guard Mike Conley sidelined with a sprained right ankle, which could again be the case against Portland.

"We just got Jeff (Green) and we have a little winning streak going," Conley told the team's official website. "We want to build some momentum going into the All-Star break. I am going to try and get back as soon as I can. I am going to say day to day right now. I would love to play tomorrow and hopefully I will be feeling 122 percent better tomorrow morning."

Prior to the winning streak, Dave Joerger's team had lost seven of 11. It's still seeking improvement from 3-point range, where the Grizzlies are 6 of 31 (19.4 percent) in the last two games. Green has done little to help that cause with an 0-for-7 mark in two games and a 0-for-14 drought dating to his time with Boston.

"Right now, his jumper's struggling because I think, you know 'Is this my shot? Should I take this at this time? I'm playing with Marc (Gasol), I'm playing with Zach (Randolph) or should I put in?'" Joerger said. "Nobody can think and shoot at the same time. I don't know if he's a 50 percent shooter from three or not, but I think his shooting perimeter numbers will go up."

The Grizzlies are 17-6 against the West and have won six of seven in the series with Portland while limiting it to 91.7 points on 41.2 percent. That includes a 112-99 road victory over the Blazers on Nov. 28.

Matthews had 26 while hitting 7 of 12 from beyond the arc, but Memphis shot 53.6 percent with Gasol scoring 26. Conley narrowly missed his first career triple-double with 21 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

UFC Fight Night 59 Preview

Event: UFC Fight Night 59
Date: Sun. January 18, 2015
TV/Time: (FS1, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Venue: TD Garden
City: Boston, Massachusetts, United States

Middleweight Fight - Uriah Hall (10-4) vs. Ron Stallings (12-6)

Line: Hall -800, Stallings +550

Uriah Hall looks to pick up his third consecutive victory as he takes on Ron Stallings at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.

Hall entered the UFC with high expectations after delivering one of the most vicious knockouts in the history of the sport on The Ultimate Fighter when he delivered a spinning hook kick knockout of Adam Cella. However, he struggled early in his career and was potentially on his way to being fired. But Hall has bounced back nicely in his past two fights, including a unanimous decision victory against Thiago Santos at UFC 175 on July 5. Hall is an explosive athlete who has all of the talent in the world, but is not always focused when he is in the octagon. However, these past two matches have shown he may be back to reaching his great potential. Ron Stallings is entering the UFC octagon for the first time in his career, and he will be looking to bounce back from an MMA loss to Tim Williams on November 1, 2014. For the heavily-favored HALL, this is the type of match that he has to come out and take care of business in, and that is exactly he will do.

"Prime Time" Hall has 10 wins in his career, with seven of them coming by way of knockout. He also has two wins by decision and one by submission (heel hook). Hall has a good average when it comes to landing significant strikes (2.94 landed per minute), and he is also extremely accurate when it comes to landing his attempts (49.33%). Hall averages 1.5 takedowns with a 42% accuracy mark. He's a solid defender too with a 60% striking defense and 64% takedown defense. When it comes to athletes in the UFC, Hall is as good as there is in the sport. The 30-year-old who fights out of New York City does a nice job of using that athleticism, and he will have to be prepared against a fighter who can end a fight quickly by knockout.

Stallings has 12 wins in his career, with six of them coming by knockout, and the other six by submission. He is able to submit his opponent in a variety of ways with victories coming by two RNC, two triangle, one guillotine and one armbar submission. Of his dozen victories, five have been won in the first round. The guy they call “ChoirBoy” (because he plays the keyboard at church) is a very similar athlete to his Sunday opponent, which is something that Hall does not usually have to deal with in the sport. Another key thing to look for in this matchup is that this is the first UFC fight for the 31-year-old Stallings, so Hall will have to be 100 percent focused and not overlook his opponent. Stallings is 6-feet, 185 pounds and has very good strength for this weight class as well, and a golden opportunity to go out there and show he belongs in the UFC with a victory against Hall, who is also 6-feet, 185 pounds.

Lightweight Fight - Benson Henderson (21-4) vs. Donald Cerrone (26-6)

Line: Henderson -135, Cerrone +105

Donald Cerrone looks for his second victory in 15 days as he takes on Benson Henderson at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.

If it seems like Cerrone was just in a match, it is because he was. “Cowboy” picked up a unanimous decision victory against Myles Jury on January 3 at UFC 182. Cerrone is the most active fighter in the sport right now, as Sunday will mark his seventh fight since Nov. 16, 2013, and he has won each of those six bouts. But none of those fights are as big as the opportunity he has in Boston that could earn him a championship opportunity. It will not be easy though, as he is going up against a fighter who has beaten him twice in his career (2009 and 2010), both in championship bouts. While the first fight went the full five rounds with significant striking nearly equal (34-28), the rematch was completely dominated by Henderson, who held a 15-1 striking advantage before winning on a first-round submission. Henderson is an extremely talented fighter who is looking to bounce back from a bad loss against Rafael dos Anjos on Aug. 23 where he was knocked out only 2:31 into the fight. The winner of Sunday's matchup will be in great position to potentially earn a title fight, and despite a fight just 15 days ago, CERRONE will finally figure out Henderson for the victory.

"Cowboy" Cerrone has 26 victories in his career, with 15 of them coming by way of submission, broken down by seven triangle chokes, five RNC and three armbars. He also has seven wins by decision and four by knockout. Because both fighters have different strengths, the very beginning of this match is extremely important. Cerrone has a big advantage when it comes to landing significant strikes (3.87 for Cerrone and 2.72 for Henderson). While he has knockouts on his resume, he is landing those strikes to wear out his opponent, and set up the opportunity for a submission victory. For the 31-year-old who fights out of Albuquerque, there really isn’t any kind of game plan in a match so soon after his previous fight. That plays to his biggest strength, just going out there and letting it fly. While both fighters weigh 155 pounds, the 6-foo-1 Cerrone has a four-inch height advantage over the 5-foot-9 Henderson.

"Smooth" Henderson enters this fight with 21 victories in his career, with 10 of his wins coming by way of decision. He also has seven wins by submission (four guillotine, three RNC), with the other four coming by way of knockout. Even with his loss last August, Henderson has still won nine of his past 11 fights. Henderson will have a big advantage when it comes to grappling with a 2.6 takedown average (1.41 for Cerrone), and he will try and use that against Cerrone. The first time these fighters collided, Henderson held an 8-1 takedown advantage. The problem with Henderson's strategy is that if he is not careful, then he can be playing right into the strength of Cerrone. In his past two losses, he has gotten careless and ended up losing very quickly, falling in a first-round submission to Anthony Pettis on Aug. 31, 2013. If the 31-year-old who fights out of Glendale, AZ is able to get off to a fast start, he will be in great shape to get the win. Cerrone will try to win this fight early, so Henderson must be able to withstand the pressure.

5-Round Featherweight Fight - Conor McGregor (16-2) vs. Dennis Siver (22-9)

Line: McGregor -900, Siver +600

Conor McGregor looks to continue his movement up the featherweight ladder as he takes on Dennis Siver at UFC Fight Night in Boston on Sunday.

McGregor promised to make his presence felt when he came to the UFC, and he has absolutely kept his promise with 12 straight victories. Three of his four matches in the UFC have ended in the first round, including his last match against Dustin Poirier on Sept. 27, a fight that lasted only 1:46. McGregor is the type of fighter that the fans love, because he is going to go out there and make the bout very exciting. Siver has a different fighting style than McGregor, but he is 7-3 in his past 10 fights, including a victory against Charles Rosa by way of unanimous decision on Oct. 4. At 36 years old, Siver is not going to get many opportunities to fight a guy like McGregor. He will have to come out prepared and not let his opponent's aggressiveness get to him. However, that will not make a difference against McGREGOR, who is on a mission to win the featherweight title, and he will inch closer to that fight with a dominating victory against Siver.

"The Notorious" McGregor has 16 wins on his resume, with the majority of them (14) coming by way of knockout. He also has one win by both decision and submission (RNC), and has totaled 12 first-round finishes in his career. McGregor will have many advantages in this fight, but his biggest strength is the ability to knock out his opponent. The 26-year-old from Dublin averages 4.6 significant strikes landed per minute, while Siver averages 3.8. McGregor's grappling (3.41 takedown average) is also much better than Siver’s 1.04 takedown average, which is going to make it very difficult for Siver to get the victory. If McGregor comes out and is focused, the heavy underdog has little change of pulling off the mammoth upset.

For Siver, this is a very difficult matchup because he doesn’t appear to have any strengths over McGregor. He does have much more experience of the two combatants, and enters this fight with 22 victories in his career. Siver, who hails from Russia but currently fights out of Germany, has shown he can win in many different ways. He has eight wins by decision, with seven victories by both knockout and submission. Seven of these wins have been first-round finishes, and he has won by five different submission techniques (2 RNC, 2 armbar, 1 guillotine, 1 heel hook and 1 choke) For Siver to have a chance to win this fight, he is needs to be the aggressor and never let up. The odds are definitely stacked against him, but the thing about the UFC, is it takes just one second for a match to be over.

Other UFC Fight Night 59 Bouts

Light Heavyweight Bout:
Sean O'Connell -170
Matt Van Buren +140

Flyweight Bout:
Joby Sanchez -175
Tateki Matsuda +145

Welterweight Bout:
Sean Spencer -170
Cathal Pendred +140

Welterweight Bout:
Lorenz Larkin -170
John Howard +140

Lightweight Bout:
Chris Wade -500
Zhang Lipeng +375

Flyweight Bout:
Patrick Holohan -290
Shane Howell +225

Lightweight Bout:
Johnny Case -185
Frankie Perez +150

Featherweight Bout:
Charles Rosa -145
Sean Soriano +115

Lightweight Bout:
Gleison Tibau -145
Norman Parke +115

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Cerrone the 11th fighter to compete twice in 30 days
Justin Hartling

Donald Cerrone will face Benson Henderson, only 15 days after his last fight. Cerrone is one of only 11 fighters to fight more than once within 30 days in UFC history, excluding the early one-night tournaments.

Fighters have gone on to go 4-6 in the second bout, but fighters with 15 days or less are 2-1.

Ceronne is currently +115 against Henderson (-135).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

McGregor fights rarely make it past round one
Justin Hartling

Conor McGregor is only one win away from a featherweight title shot and it has been thanks to his heavy hands. The Irishman has earned 14 of his 16 career victories via knockout with 12 of those finishes happening in the first round.

McGregor's opponent, Dennis Silver, has won his past five by decision and has not finished an opponent since Nov. 2010.

As of this writing, McGregor winning the fight in the first round is -140, with any other result at +100.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Teams to Watch

Following two months of action, the oddsmakers have adjusted a handful of title odds with several teams from power conferences receiving plenty of notice. Past favorites Kentucky, Duke, Arizona, and Wisconsin, a trio of ACC squads is starting to make a push and becoming serious threats in March. We’ll take a look at seven clubs that you need to consider jumping on before all the value gets sucked out inching closer to the NCAA Tournament.

Texas

Biggest wins: The Longhorns knocked off defending champion UConn, 55-54 in late November as a two-point road underdog. Texas also picked up a 14-point blowout of Iowa at Madison Square Garden in November, but haven’t had a quality victory since December.

Look-ahead spots: UT will be tested at the end of January with a three-game set starting with Kansas (1/24), followed by road trips to Iowa State (1/26), and Baylor (1/31).

Gonzaga

Biggest wins: The ‘Zags took care of SMU early in non-conference action, while also picking up victories at UCLA and BYU. Gonzaga’s only loss so far came in a three-point setback at Arizona back in December.

Look-ahead spots: The WCC is basically a three-horse race with BYU and St. Mary’s chasing down Gonzaga. The Bulldogs face the Gaels on January 22 in Spokane, while heading to St. Mary’s on February 21. Gonzaga wraps up conference play on February 28 against an uptempo BYU squad.

Virginia

Biggest wins: The Cavaliers haven’t lost a game yet this season, as UVA has solid road victories at Maryland, VCU, and Notre Dame. All three non-covers for the Cavs this season came as a favorite of 14 ½ or more, while limiting 12 opponents to 57 points or less.

Look-ahead spots: Virginia will have its hands full in late January/early February with a rough three-game stretch against Duke (1/31), at North Carolina (2/2), and hosting Louisville (2/7). UVA concludes ACC play with a trip to Louisville on March 7.

Maryland

Biggest wins: The Terrapins are making noise in their first season as part of the Big Ten, beating Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and Michigan State – all away from College Park. Besides losing to old ACC rival Virginia in non-conference play, the only defeat that can sting heading towards March is a road setback at Illinois.

Look-ahead spots: Maryland still has tough road trips to Indiana (1/22), Ohio State (1/29), Iowa (2/8), and Nebraska (3/8). The Terps should be able to take care of their home court, as a February 24 showdown with Wisconsin is the key game at the Xfinity Center down the stretch.

North Carolina State

Biggest wins: The Wolfpack picked up their signature victory of the season by trouncing previously unbeaten Duke last Sunday, 87-75 as nine-point home underdogs. Prior to that win, N.C. State owned a bunch of home victories over substandard competition, while getting run out by Cincinnati and even losing at home to Wofford.

Look-ahead spots: The road schedule isn’t terribly difficult for the Wolfpack, who heads to Florida State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Clemson. However, N.C. State gets a rematch with Virginia in Raleigh on February 11, while traveling to North Carolina and Louisville in a 10-day span in February.

Notre Dame

Biggest wins: The Irish held off Michigan State in overtime as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge back in December, but Notre Dame came through in its first road game of the season by upsetting North Carolina in Chapel Hill earlier this month as an eight-point underdog.

Look-ahead spots: Notre Dame takes on Duke twice in a 10-day span (1/28 and 2/7), while its home schedule isn’t too tough the rest of the way. The Irish battles Boston College, Wake Forest, and Clemson a combined five times, while also welcoming in a down Syracuse squad on February 24.

Utah

Biggest wins: The Utes continue to make strides towards the top of the Pac-12 with three home blowouts to tip off conference play. Utah grabbed a pair of upsets in non-conference action by beating Wichita State and BYU, while having a massive rally fall short against Kansas back in December.

Look-ahead spots: Utah’s biggest road test by far in conference action comes on Saturday at Arizona, while hosting the Wildcats on February 28. The Utes avoid a trip to Stanford, as the Cardinal visits the Huntsman Center on February 12.

Below are the updated odds for the National Championship:

College Basketball Future Odds

Team Open Current
Kentucky 2/1 2/3
Duke 10/1 9/1
Arizona 7/1 12/1
Wisconsin 10/1 12/1
Texas 25/1 13/1
Gonzaga 20/1 15/1
Virginia 30/1 20/1
Louisville 25/1 25/1
Kansas 15/1 30/1
Villanova 30/1 30/1
Iowa State 30/1 35/1
North Carolina 15/1 35/1
Florida 15/1 40/1
Wichita State 30/1 55/1
Ohio State 50/1 75/1
Maryland 300/1 80/1
Michigan State 50/1 80/1
UConn 40/1 80/1
Utah 100/1 80/1
VCU 40/1 80/1
NC State 300/1 100/1
Notre Dame 200/1 100/1
Oklahoma 60/1 100/1
SMU 75/1 100/1
Syracuse 50/1 100/1
Field (Any Other Team) 100/1 100/1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bracketology Update
By Bruce Marshall

We're now at the midway point of the college basketball season. And while conference schedules are still in their early phases, we can already detect more definition in the college hoops landscape for 2014-15, as postseason berths begin to take shape.

Thus, we begin to value our "Bracketology" updates a bit more as we can begin to more accurately project where many of these teams will slot on Selection Sunday. And, at midseason, it's a good measuring stick for the first half of the campaign and an indicator where many of these teams will end up in March.

For our newest update, we include not only each team's record, but also its "RPI" (Ratings Percentage index) number, a calculation that begins to become more illuminating as we get deeper into conference action. All records and RPI are thru January 14.

As usual, for all of our "Bracketology" updates, the term "protected seed" refers to seeds 1 thru 4 in each region, and usual favorable geographic placement in the sub-regional round. As usual, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this season will begin on Thursday, March 19, with the Dayton "First Four" games played on March 17 and 18. Remember, Selection Sunday is less than two months away!

EAST REGIONAL (Syracuse)

At Charlotte...

1 Virginia (SUR 16-0, RPI-3) vs. 16 Stony Brook (11-7, 82)...With Duke faltering within the past week, Virginia more and more looks like the class of the ACC. And as long as the Cavaliers stay undefeated, they definitely stay on top of one of the regions. The America East race sees the Great Danes from Albany setting the early pace, though most believe the home team of Strat-o-Matic on Long Island, Stony Brook, will end up as the conference rep.

8 Stanford (12-4, 38) vs. 9 George Washington (12-4, 39)...As the Pac-12 race begins to take shape, Stanford looks like an upper-division squad and has thus far avoided some of the damaging slips that have already cost other loop foes in the past couple of weeks. The pre-league win at Texas isn't looking as good as it did a few weeks ago, but solid RPI and SOS (Strength of Schedule) numbers suggest Johnny Dawkins and the Cardinal land on the safe side of the cut line. So, too, should Mike Lonergan's GW, although the A-10 race is looking more competitive than originally envisioned. How deep might the Selection Committee go in the conference come March?

At Seattle...

4 Utah (13-2, 7) vs. 13 Harvard (10-4, 41)...Larry Krystowiak's Utah is now setting the pace in the Pac-12 and indicated long ago that it means business this season. A weekend date at Arizona will be the next test for the Utes. We're a little less sure that Harvard is the class of the Ivy league than the past couple of seasons, when Tommy Amaker's side won a couple of sub-regional games and was probably good enough to merit an at-large berth if needed. But enough familiar names (such as Wesley Saunders and Siyani Chambers) remain from those recent Big Dance additions to make Harvard the Ivy favorite again.

5 Virginia Commonwealth (14-3, 4) vs. 12 Georgia (10-5, 40)/Oklahoma State (12-4/27)...VCU's impressive RPI number suggests the Rams have a shot at a protected seed. Whatever, it would appear as if the Rams and Dayton are probably going to be the highest-seeded A-10 teams called on Selection Sunday. Speaking of Dayton, as usual it will host the at-large play-in games at our favorite mid-sized arena in the country. We are not sure how the Committee is going to view the SEC, but we suspect it might go a bit deeper than many suspect, and Georgia's midweek win at Vandy was an important step for Mark Fox's Bulldogs to move into the top half of the league. We know the Committee is going to like the Big 12, where Ok State resides, though we wonder if so much depth in the league will result in some cannibalization. For now, the Cowboys' RPI suggests they make the cut, but things change quickly (ask TCU).

At Omaha...

2 Wisconsin (15-2, 8) vs. 15 Hofstra (13-5, 147)...Wisconsin might have been in position to move up into a projected number one seed had it not been minus C Frank Kaminsky and lost at Rutgers last Sunday. Which qualifies as a "bad" loss and probably keeps the Badgers on the 2-line for the time being. (The good news is that Kaminsky's concussion-related absence is expected to be short, though G Traveon Jackson will miss several weeks due to foot surgery). The CAA race looks completely up for grabs, especially with preseason favorite William & Mary (looking for its first-ever Big Dance berth) having slightly disappointed. At the moment, respected former Niagara HC Joe Mihalich has the Hofstra Pride on top of the league table.

7 Seton Hall (13-4, 18) vs. 10 Arkansas (13-3, 16)...The Hall had better not get too comfy with its projected spot in the field, as the Pirates still have the bulk of a treacherous Big East schedule to navigate. The Tuesday home loss at the Pru Center to Butler suggests that Kevin Willard's crew faces several bumps in the road still to come. Arkansas might project higher than a 10 seed, but not sure how the Committee is going to rate the SEC beyond Kentucky. The Razorbacks did their seeding prospects no favors with Tuesday night's loss at Tennessee.

At Pittsburgh...

3 Notre Dame (16-2, 47) vs. 14 Iona (12-5, 62)...Our projections at the moment have the Selection Committee going 8-deep in the ACC, with plenty of room for Notre Dame. Though the Irish lost last weekend, that home setback vs. undefeated Virginia is definitely a "good" loss, and bouncing back to score a come-from-behind win at Georgia Tech is more than enough to keep Mike Brey's Fighting Irish in protected seed territory. Meanwhile, beyond 12-5 Iona, only two teams, Quinnipiac and Rider, are even above .500 in the Metro-Atlantic, and just barely so for the latter two. The Gaels have already moved to the top of the MAAC and are rather clearly the team to beat in the loop.

6 Oklahoma (11-5, 28) vs. 11 Providence (13-5, 13)...At this time last week we probably would have had Oklahoma as a protected seed, especially after the Jan. 5 romp at Texas. But subsequent losses to Kansas State and West Virginia have Lon Kruger's Sooners sinking fast. Providence is one of several teams in the Big East scrum beneath Villanova, though it looks like RPI numbers are favorable to loop members this term, and the Friars could be one of those beneficiaries. An early win over Notre Dame is helping Providence's at-large prospects.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Houston)

At Louisville...

1 Kentucky (16-0, 2) vs. 16 Colgate (7-11, 246)/Alabama State (8-5/221)...The nuances of the RPI are too complicated to explain, but we're not sure F. Lee Bailey could defend that rating system putting Kentucky beneath a Kansas team that the Wildcats beat by 32 points earlier this season. Though Coach Cal's Cats have had a couple of recent narrow overtime escapes vs. Ole Miss and Texas A&M, we'd be shocked if UK isn't the overall number one seed in the tourney. And more shocked if UK isn't placed in Louisville for the sub-regional. We're not sure what is going to happen in the Patriot League, but surprising Colgate is setting the early pace and gets the provisional spot in the field for the moment. Strong challenges are expected to come from Lafayette and American U, but the Red Raiders might think they have their best shot at the Dance since the days of Adonal Foyle. Alabama State has started quickly in the SWAC and at 8-5 overall is the only league member close to .500 at all.

8 San Diego State (13-4, 37) vs. 9 Miami-Florida (12-4, 56)...We think there is a chance that the Mountain West could end up as a one-bid league, though two or three are probably more likely. One of those is likely to be SDSU, which is not having an easy of a ride as it has the past few seasons, but did make an important stand Wednesday at Wyoming when beating the Cowboys in a 60-52 grinder. Miami was also floundering in recent weeks but seems to have straightened out, with Tuesday's romp at Duke re-positioning Jim Larranaga's Canes back into the field.


At Columbus...

4 West Virginia (15-2, 15) vs. 13 ULL (10-5, 172)...Bob Huggins' Mountaineers might deserve a better seed than a four, especially after the midweek romp past Oklahoma in Morgantown. Whatever, WVU sure looks like a protected seed after an impressive first two months of the season. In the Sun Belt, UL-Lafayette has taken early control of the race by virtue of last week's narrow win over Georgia State. Don't be surprised if those two end up in the Belt tourney final as a year ago, when the Ragin' Cajuns scored a mild upset in overtime. We'd also keep an eye on Georgia Southern, one of the early surprises in the Belt.

5 Michigan State (12-5, 35) vs. 12 Green Bay (14-3, 65)...We've been waiting for Michigan State to shift gears and think it has finally happened with three straight wins by Tom Izzo's Spartans, including impressive recent jobs vs. Indiana and at Iowa. With the arrow pointing up in East Lansing, MSU is probably not far from protected seed territory, though a sub-regional in Columbus is probably what Izzo would prefer regardless. Brian Wardle's Green Bay is setting the pace in the Horizon League, though Bryce Drew's Valparaiso and Gary Waters' Cleveland State are giving spirited chase.

At Jacksonville...

2 Maryland (16-2, 19) vs. 15 Coastal Carolina (14-3, 110)...So far, Maryland's transition from the ACC to the Big Ten has been rather smooth, with the Terps on top of the loop heading into Thursday night action. Expect to see Mark Turgeon's troops in protected seed territory all of the way to Selection Sunday. In the Big South, Coastal Carolina looks ready for a return to the Dance. Nobody will be overlooking the Chants, either, after they gave number one seed Virginia a scare last March. Coach Cliff Ellis has also previously taken three other schools (South Alabama, Clemson, and Auburn) to the Dance.

7 SMU (13-4, 23) vs. 10 Washington (12-4, 61)...After likely being the final school out of last year's field of 68, don't expect Larry Brown's SMU to have to sweat out Selection Sunday this March. Meanwhile, Washington is now struggling to remain in the field after a recent 4-game losing streak, including an 0-3 break from the gate in the Pac-12. But Thursday's 56-43 win over recently-surging Oregon State suggests the slump might be in the rear-view mirror and barely gets Lorenzo Romar's team back into the field.

At Omaha...

3 Wichita State (15-2, 9) vs. 14 Wofford (13-4, 33)...Wichita State is not basing its Big Dance candidacy upon its subpar pointspread record, which would qualify for a CBI or CIT invitation at bast. But the Shockers continue to win and set the pace in the Valley. Right now, they're an easy call for a protected seed. With Davidson having moved out of the SoCon, Wofford is now the flagship program in the loop, and vet HC Mike Young looks to have another Big Dance rep, with star G Karl Cochran likely pacing a return visit to the Dance.

6 Butler (13-5, 14) vs. 11 Old Dominion (13-2, 22)...If this were a sub-regional matchup, it would be a rematch of a very good battle at a similar stage four years ago won by one of Butler's title game qualifiers. The Bulldogs, one of many contenders in the mosh-pit known as the Big East, helped their candidacy greatly in last Tuesday's overtime win at Seton Hall. The question in Conference USA is if it might be a multi-bid league once again this season. Jeff Jones' ODU looks to be the best of the bunch, though La Tech, UTEP, or Western Kentucky will have a shot to knock off the Monarchs in the conference tourney.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Cleveland)

At Pittsburgh...

1 Villanova (16-1, 5) vs. 16 St. Francis, Pa. (9-6, 103)/NC Central (12-5, 101)...Developments over the past week, when Duke lost twice and Wisconsin lost at Rutgers, have helped Villanova project to the top line. With the RPI loving the Big East this season, the Cats should be looking at a favorable seed and likely the Pittsburgh sub-regional in March. Another of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games could feature the Northeast Conference, where Maurice Stokes' alma mater St. Francis (Pa.) is setting the early pace in the league race and was one of the few NEC teams above .500 in pre-league play. As always, be aware of the home team of the Pittsburgh Airport, Robert Morris, as well as Clair Bee's former Long Island U. Blackbirds. The MEAC is often involved in 16 vs. 16 play-in games, too, and NC Central has taken the lead in the league race as it looks for back-to-back trips to the Dance.

8 LSU (13-3, 46) vs. 9 Indiana (13-4, 50)...There are some Big Ten observers who believe Indiana HC Tom Crean needs this Big Dance bid to keep himself out of hot water in Bloomington. Last Saturday's win over Ohio State suggests the Hoosiers have a good shot of hanging around through the rugged Big Ten slate...and keeping Crean out of trouble. The SEC-after-Kentucky race might have a new frontrunner after LSU's impressive Wednesday win at Ole Miss. If the Tigers can win a few more on the conference trail, they could end up as the second-highest seeded team in the league.

At Portland....

4 Baylor (13-3, 25) vs. 13 Stephen F Austin (13-3, 115)...The Big 12 is so top-heavy that we believe the league could cannibalize itself, though in the end it might not cost the loop more than one Big Dance bid. Baylor, by virtue of its midweek escape at Waco vs. Iowa State, claims a protected seed in this projection (though we're still sending the Bears out to Portland). SF Austin and HC Brad Underwood need no introduction after causing havoc in last March's sub-regionals in San Diego, where the Lumberjacks upset VCU. In the meantime, they'll have to worry about Sam Houston State in what is looking like a two-team race in the Southland.

5 Ohio State (14-4, 51) vs. 12 Central Michigan (12-2, 124)...Ohio State took advantage of a soft pre-league slate and has not exactly been rolling in Big Ten play, hence the unimpressive RPI number and its slotting outside of protected seed territory. The Buckeyes do have one of the nation's top frosh, however, in G D'Angelo Russell. The MAC race is shaping up to be highly-entertaining, though as usual we don't project more than one bid from the loop. At the moment, we vote for Keno Davis' CMU, while also keeping an eye on Buffalo, Ball State, Western Michigan, Akron, and Toledo (heck, that's almost half of the league...we told you it's going to be an entertaining race!).

At Charlotte...

2 Duke (14-2, 10) vs. 15 FGCU (11-7, 148)...The storyline of the past week in college hoops was Duke's ungraceful drop from the ranks of the unbeatens, losing not just once, but twice (NC State and Miami), and looking bad in the process. That's dropped the Blue Devils off of the top line, but we're keeping them in the nearby Charlotte sub-regional...for now. Though the Ospreys of North Florida currently lead the Atlantic Sun race, FGCU and the remnants of its "Dunk City" from two years ago are still considered the team to beat in the race. Note that recent antagonist Mercer has moved to the SoCon.

7 Georgetown (11-5, 30) vs. 10 Wyoming (15-3, 76)...As mentioned earlier, the RPI is giving a lot of respect to the Big East, and the Selection Committee has never needed its arm twisted to reward teams from that loop. Georgetown still has plenty of work to do, but Tuesday's win at DePaul suggests the Hoyas should be up to the task. We're not as sure about Wyo, which saw its home win streak snapped at 13 by San Diego State on Wednesday night. The Cowboys need to prove they can win on the road in order to stay in the projected field, though to their benefit, the MW doesn't look too deep this season.

At Louisville...

3 Kansas (14-2, 1) vs. 14 Murray State (13-4, 100)...The Jayhawks' psyche took a couple of haymakers before New Year's in blowout losses vs. Kentucky and at Temple. But so far, those are the only KU losses, and the RPI obviously loves the Jayhawks, who could certainly threaten the top line by the time we get to Selection Sunday. Murray State appears the team to beat in the OVC, but Eastern Kentucky (last year's OVC Big Dance rep) and Eastern Illinois are currently making noise along with the Racers in the league race.

6 Northern Iowa (15-2, 21) vs. 11 Iowa (12-5, 52)...The Missouri Valley looks likely to be a multi-bid league once more because of UNI, with all five starters back from last season. The Panthers' credentials are good enough to make the Valley a 3-bid league in March if both Wichita and UNI should happen to lose in "Arch Madness" at St. Louis. And wouldn't this be a tasty sub-regional matchup vs. the in-state Hawkeyes, who went flat in the second half and lost by 12 to UNI on Dec. 20 in Des Moines.

WEST REGIONAL (Los Angeles)

at Seattle...

1 Gonzaga (16-1, 6) vs. 16 New Mexico State (9-9. 168)...After recent losses by Arizona, the Zags now project to the top spot in the West Regional and are a good bet to stay there as they figure, as usual, to cruise through the WCC (Arizona is already having problems in the deeper Pac-12). Expect to see Marvin Menzies' NMSU back in the Dance, as the Aggies are now beyond a tough pre-league slate and should be able to cruise through the WAC portion of their schedule.

8 Dayton (14-2, 17) vs. 9 Colorado State (16-2, 20)...Archie Miller's Dayton Flyers are proving that their run to the Elite Eight a year ago was no fluke, as they set the pace in A-10 alongside VCU. As for transfer-laden CSU, it has regained its balance after recovering from body blows inflicted by New Mexico and Wyoming at the outset of the league race. The Rams are back in stride if Wednesday's 98-42 crush job of Nevada is any indication.

At Jacksonville...

4 North Carolina (13-4, 12) vs. 13 Eastern Washington (12-4, 66)...The Tar Heels have hit a few bumps but are sitting in very nice shape with the RPI and should land in protected seed territory (though we have shipped the Heels to the sub-regional in Jacksonville instead of Charlotte). The recent win over Louisville sets up UNC nicely at the midseason point. If the matchup is to be Big Sky rep EWU, rest assured Roy Williams (or any opposing coach) will warn his troops of the Eagles, who won at Indiana in November.

5 Iowa State (12-3, 24) vs. 12 Cincinnati (11-4,31)/NC State (12-6/34)...We project the Committee going 8-deep in the Big 12, though we are not sure how those teams might be seeded, and how much damage they might do to one another in league play. Iowa State should fall safely on the right side of the cut line, and for now we keep Fred Hoiberg's Cyclones at a five seed. The other at-large play-in game at Dayton currently projects to a couple of traditional March faces, and one familiar at the "First Four" after winning at UD Arena a year ago. That would be NC State, which helped its at-large credentials with last Sunday's rousing win over Duke. We also have Cincinnati penciled here (which would be convenient for the Bearcats, with Dayton not far away). We'll see how Cincy reacts with HC Mick Cronin acting only in an advisory capacity for the remainder of this season due to health issues.

At Columbus...

2 Louisville (15-2, 26) vs. 15 North Dakota State (11-6, 157)...Keep in mind that Louisville is not eligible for the sub-regional at its KFC Yum! Center in the 'Ville, so the Cards likely are off to a place like Columbus, not too far away, for their sub-regional. The Cards have made the ACC an even tougher neighborhood this season, though we do expect Rick Pitino's team to slip on some banana peels in the league race (which the 'Ville already did, narrowly, at North Carolina). The Summit race looks wide open, and a measured vote for last year's champ North Dakota State, though South Dakota State and Oral Roberts (back in the Summit after a brief stay in the Southland) figure to chase the Bison into March.

7 St. John's (12-4, 43) vs. 10 Davidson (12-3, 53)...After an 0-3 break from the gate in Big East play, we were wondering if we should drop Steve Lavin's St. John's out of the field entirely. But Wednesday's win at Providence might steady the Red Storm, who still project to the safe side of the cut line. As for Bob "Leslie Nielsen" McKillop's Davidson, it seems to be transitioning easily from the SoCon to the A-10, owning one of the nation's most potent offenses.

At Portland....

3 Arizona (14-2, 11) vs. 14 UC Davis (12-3, 117)...Arizona's recent stumbles at UNLV and Oregon State suggest there could be more slippery spots to come for the Cats with the bulk of the Pac-12 road schedule still to come. Although we do not project UA to slide out of protected seed territory. As for Kimberly Guilfoyle's alma mater UC Davis, it assumed frontrunner status in the Big West with last Saturday's overtime win over Long Beach State. Star G Corey Hawkins looks like he could be the difference-maker in the league, though don't forget how a sub-.500 Cal Poly side (still lurking) won the conference tourney at Anaheim last March. The Aggies are looking for their first-ever Big Dance invitation.

6 Texas (12-4, 32) vs. 11 Alabama (12-4, 44)...There probably wasn't a team drop as much in the past week as Texas, which was looking at a 2 or 3 seed prior to a Jan. 5 blowout loss to Oklahoma, and a subsequent loss on Saturday vs. Oklahoma State. With plenty of tough dates to come in the Big 12, the Horns could drop further. As for Bama, it might need a Big Dance bid to keep the heat off of HC Anthony Grant. The Tide had a 6-game win streak stopped on Tuesday at South Carolina, but Bama appears as good a candidate as any to emerge as the second team in the SEC behind Kentucky.

Last four in: Georgia, Oklahoma State, Cincinnati, NC State

Last four out: Illinois, TCU, BYU, Penn State

Next four out: Temple, Florida, Tulsa, Saint Mary's

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB Saturday's Early Tips
By Brian Edwards

**Duke at Louisville**

-- Duke (14-2 straight up, 8-8 against the spread) is looking to avoid a third straight loss when it enters the KFC Yum! Center to take on Rick Pitino's squad. This is the first time the Blue Devils have dropped back-to-back games by margins of 12 points or more since 1995-96. The defeats have left head coach Mike Krzyzewski stuck on 997 career wins.

-- Louisville (15-2 SU, 4-10-2 ATS) is mired in a 1-7-1 ATS slump after failing its betting supporters in Tuesday's 78-63 win over Virginia Tech as a 22-point home favorite. Terry Rozier scored a team-high 16 points thanks to 4-of-6 shooting from long distance. Wayne Blackshear added 15 points and six rebounds, while Montrezl Harrell finished with 11 points, eight boards, three assists and three blocked shots.

-- A couple of offshore betting shops opened U of L as a 3.5-point home favorite late Friday afternoon.

-- This will be Duke's second underdog situation of the season. The Blue Devils were four-point 'dogs when they won 80-70 at Wisconsin on Dec. 3.

-- Louisville has won 11 of its 12 home games with the only loss coming to undefeated and top-ranked Kentucky. The Cardinals have limped to an abysmal 1-8-1 ATS mark in their 10 lined home contests.

-- Duke had its 41-game home winning streak snapped Wednesday when Miami went into Cameron Indoor Stadium and spanked the Blue Devils 90-74 as a 15.5-point road underdog. In the losing effort, veteran point guard Quinn Cook had 18 points, six rebounds and three assists. Jahlil Okafor, the favorite to win Freshman of the Year honors, had 15 points and 15 boards, while Amile Jefferson finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds. Defense was the issue, though, as Duke allowed the Hurricanes to shoot 50.0 percent from 3-point land.

-- Duke is ranked ninth in the RPI with a 4-1 record against the Top 50 and a 6-2 ledger vs. the Top 100. The Blue Devils have quality wins over the likes of Michigan State, Temple, Stanford, Wisconsin, Wofford and UConn.

-- Duke suffered its first loss of the season at North Carolina State last Sunday. The Wolfpack won 87-75 despite 23 points, 12 rebounds, three steals and three rejections from Okafor.

-- U of L has an RPI of 20, compiling a 5-2 record against the Top 100. The Cardinals owns scalps of Ohio State, Indiana, Western Ky., Long Beach State and Clemson. In addition to the loss against the top-ranked 'Cats, they lost 72-71 at North Carolina last weekend on Marcus Paige's last-second layup.

-- Okafor is averaging team-bests in scoring (18.9 points per game), rebounding (9.4 RPG), blocked shots (26 in 16 games) and field-goal percentage (66.8%). Cook is scoring at a 14.8 PPG clip and has a 49/22 assists-to-turnovers ratio. Cook had drained 97.0 percent of his attempts from the charity stripe.

-- Rozier is averaging a team-high 17.4 PPG and also leads team in steals with 2.2 per game. Harrell is averaging 15.2 points and 8.9 rebounds while making 58.4 percent of his shots from the field. Chris Jones, who dished out 11 assists against the Hokies, is averaging 12.8 points and 3.7 assists per game.

-- These schools last met in the Elite Eight two seasons ago when U of L trounced Duke 85-63 as a 3.5-point favorite on its way to winning the national championship by beating Michigan in the finals.

-- The 'over' is 5-1 in Duke's last six games to improve to 9-5 overall.

-- The 'over' is 7-6 overall for U of L, but the 'under' has hit in six of its eight home games that had a total. Regardless of the venue, the 'over' is 3-1 in the Cardinals' last four outings.

-- Tip-off is slated for noon Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Kentucky (16-0 SU, 9-7 ATS) needed three overtimes to collect its first two SEC wins vs. Ole Miss and at Texas A&M. However, on Wednesday night at Rupp Arena in Lexington, there would be no need for any extra sessions. John Calipari's team smashed Missouri by an 86-37 count as a 24-point home favorite. UK forced the Tigers to shoot only 27.1 percent from the field and 1-of-18 from 3-point land. Aaron Harrison led the way with a game-high 16 points, while Karl Anthony-Town had a double-double with 12 points, 10 rebounds and five blocked shots. The Wildcats could get tested Saturday at Alabama. Although UK has seen the 'over' hit in two of its last three games, the 'under' is 12-4 overall.

-- Gonzaga (17-1 SU, 8-5-2 ATS) was fortunate to get out of Malibu alive late Thursday night. The Bulldogs won a 78-76 decision at Pepperdine, but the Waves easily covered the number as 12-point home underdogs. Mark Few's team outrebounded Pepperdine 31-22, shot 56.9 percent and buried 6-of-12 treys. However, an atrocious night at the free-throw line (14-33, 42.4%) nearly led to Gonzaga's first loss to a team not named Arizona. Domantas 'Baby Arvydas' Sabonis had 18 points and 12 rebounds on 9-of-9 shooting from the floor. The Bulldogs, who have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games to improve to 9-4 overall, will be heavily favored when they play Saturday at Loyola-Marymount at 4:00 p.m. Eastern. The 'Zags are 3-1-1 ATS in five games as road favorites.

-- For our purposes, this Pepperdine squad has been a money-making machine. I've had the Waves in back-to-back games for winners, but I should've been on them much earlier. They are 12-2-1 ATS and will return to the court Saturday night at home vs. Portland.

-- Virginia (16-0 SU, 10-4 ATS) will put its unbeaten record on the line Saturday afternoon at Boston College. The Cavaliers stroked Clemson 65-42 as a 16.5-point home favorite Tuesday night, but they really flexed their muscles in last Saturday's 62-56 win at Notre Dame as two-point 'chalk.' Darion Atkins was the catalyst with 14 points, eight rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Malcolm Brogdon and Justin Anderson finished with 13 and 11 points, respectively. Boston College is coming off of Wednesday's 64-57 overtime win over Harvard as a three-point home underdog. The Eagles have covered the spread in three straight games (they were 'dogs in all three) and the 'under' has been a winner in those three contests.

-- SMU caught a tough break when former McDonald's All-American Keith Frazier was ruled ineligible due to an academic issue. Frazier played 31 minutes in a win at Temple on Wednesday. He was averaging 10.5 PPG. Xavier transfer Justin Martin quit the team last week due to a lack of playing time. Martin was a force for the Musketeers but was unable to get steady minutes from Larry Brown.

-- Oregon State guard Victor Robbins (10.3 PPG, 3.5 RPG) has been suspended for 10 games due to a violation of athletic department policy.

-- Florida is only No. 67 in the RPI Rankings, but it is No. 23 in the BPI and No. 21 at KenPom.com. The BPI takes into account games missed by key players due to injuries or whatever sort of circumstance. The Gators, who are 10-6 SU and 3-0 in SEC play after beating Auburn handily on Thursday night at The O-Dome. They travel to Stegeman Coliseum to face Georgia on Saturday afternoon. The offshore books opened at pick 'em and that's exactly what I had it at. CBS will have the broadcast from Athens.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

College basketball Top 25 Saturday betting cheat sheet
By JUSTIN HARTLING

College football is officially over, leaving basketball the big stage until the end of the NCAA tournament. Saturday's schedule has plenty of wagering options for NCAA hoop heads, and we look at the biggest and best matchups featuring Top 25 teams with our NCAAB betting cheat sheet:

(4) Duke Blue Devils at (7) Louisville Cardinals

*In Duke's past two games, both losses, they have allowed an average of 88.5 points per game while finishing with an average scoring margin of minus-14 ppg.

*The Cardinals are averaging 10.2 steals, ranking fifth in the nation, while snatching double-digit steals in 13 of their 14 games this season. Five Louisville foes have had more turnovers than field goals this season.

(17) VCU Rams at Duquesne Dukes

*VCU has only met Duquesne twice, the past two seasons, but has won both contests by an average of 21 points.

*The Dukes outshot and outrebounded Saint Louis, but failed miserably at the free-throw line, converting only 13 of 34 attempts in failing to take advantage of the home team’s 26 fouls.

(14) Wichita State Shockers at Evansville Purple Aces

*Ball security has been a strength of the Shockers this season, as they've only given up 4.1 steals per game this season.

*Over the last six years, no other MVC school has averaged more assists than the Purple Aces. Evansville has posted an average of 14.9 per game from the beginning of the 2008 season until the end of the 2014 slate

(2) Virginia Cavaliers at Boston College Eagles

*The Cavaliers have held their opponents scoreless for five or more minutes 13 times this season. Virginia has also limited its opponents without a field goal for eight or more minutes seven times.

*The Eagles have been struggling inside the paint this season, with only three rotation players over 6-foot-5. It doesn't help that backup Will Magarity is averaging eight fouls per game.

(25) Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes

*In the last meeting between the teams, Buckeyes coach Thad Matta had insisted on playing strictly zone defense. After Iowa's offense shredded the Buckeyes, the coach has withdrawn that and is now playing man coverage.

*Watch for Aaron White to have a big game on the offensive glass, as OSU F Marc Loving has been abused all season-long at rebounding.

Miami Hurricanes at (12) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

*Miami's upset over Duke can be attributed to its perimeter play. The Hurricanes shot 10 of 20 from beyond the arc while holding Duke to just 6 of 21 from distance.

*So far this season, Notre Dame is shooting 53 percent from the floor, which is the best shooting percentage in the nation.

(23) Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats

*Baylor’s defense has held teams to an average of 13 points below their season scoring averages.

*The Wildcats’ three conference victories were won by a total of 15 points as Kansas State allowed an average of just 55.7 points.

(1) Kentucky Wildcats at Alabama Crimson Tide

*Kentucky's reach advantage, five players in the top nine are 6-foot-9 or taller, could cause rebounding issues for an Alabama team who were easily outrebounded by South Carolina in their last game.

*The Tide have held eight of their last nine opponents to 61 or fewer points in each game. Over the stretch, the Alabama defense has held the opposition to an average of 52.7 points per game,

Michigan State Spartans at (11) Maryland Terrapins

*Michigan State is shooting .418 from 3-point range this season, leading the Big Ten and ranking fourth in the nation.

*Maryland's improvement this season can be attributed to a new offensive scheme that utilizes four perimeter players and one big in the post.

(3) Gonzaga Bulldogs at Loyola Marymount Lions

*Bulldogs' Przemek Karnowski has shown development on an up-and-under move to counter defenses zeroing in on his patented left-handed hook.

*Loyola Marymount leading scorer Evan Payne came off the bench for the Lions in the win over Portland, a game removed from being benched against BYU due to a “coach’s decision”. Payne scored just seven points in 23 minutes versus the Pilots.

(15) West Virginia Mountaineers at (20) Texas Longhorns

*The Mountaineers' have been forcing turnovers in 31 percent of their opponents possessions thanks in large to a renewed defensive scheme. WVU's focus on smothering man-to-man coverage is keeping offenses out of sync.

*Texas ranks second nationally in blocked shots per game (7.7 bpg).. The Horns have blocked at least seven shots in 12 of their first 16 contests.

(8) Utah Utes at (9) Arizona Wildcats

*The Utes have the best scoring margin (+20.7) in the league despite only having one player among the Top 30 in scoring. Also, Utah has no player among the Top 10 in minutes played.

*Arizona is only allowing opponents to nab an offensive rebound on 19.1 percent of their opportunities, which is the second-best rate in the country.

(5) Villanova Wildcats at Pennsylvania Quakers

*Since the start of 2013-14, Villanova is 36-1 (.973) when scoring 70 or more points in a contest. When they fails to score 70 or more points, Villanova is 6-5 (.545).

*Penn has shot better than 50 percent from the field in two of the last three games; three of the last six contests; and five times in its last 10 outings.

(24) Oklahoma State Cowboys at (18) Oklahoma Sooners

*Oklahoma State has proven that they will dog you on defense, which is a formula that West Virginia used to topple the Sooners earlier this season.

*The Sooners had committed 10 or fewer turnovers in six of eight games before giving it away a season-high 22 times to West Virginia.

(10) Kansas Jayhawks at (13) Iowa State Cyclones

*Kansas has out-rebounded 12 of 16 opponents this season with six of those by double figures. Included are three of the last five games and four of the last seven contests.

*Iowa State’s three conference games have been decided by five total points.

Ole Miss Rebels at (19) Arkansas Razorbacks

*Ole Miss has lost two of its first three conference games by a combined seven points following a 75-71 loss to LSU.

*The Razorbacks own an 11-0 record when forcing 15+ turnovers and 9-0 mark when scoring 80+ points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the Day: Duke at Louisville

Duke Blue Devils at Louisville Cardinals (OFF, OFF)

Instead of continuing his triumphant march to his 1,000th career victory, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski is searching for answers on how to snap his team out of its sudden decline. Krzyzewski on Saturday attempts to secure win No. 998 for the third time when his fourth-ranked Blue Devils visit No. 7 Louisville. After rolling off 14 straight victories to open the season, Duke has dropped back-to-back games by at least 12 points for the first time since the end of the 1995-96 season.

“I just have felt since Christmas there’s something missing with our group and when you’re still winning, you don’t necessarily believe it completely. I haven’t been able to figure out how to change it,” Krzyzewski told reporters after Tuesday’s 90-74 loss to Miami (Fla.) that snapped the Blue Devils’ 41-game home winning streak. If Krzyzewski’s group is to avoid its first three-game skid since the end of the 2006-07 season, it will have to do so against a team led by another Hall of Fame coach in Rick Pitino, whose Cardinals have limited opponents to 50.8 points in 12 home games this season. Louisville improved to 11-1 in those contests after pounding Virginia Tech 78-63 on Tuesday.

TV: Noon ET, ESPN

ABOUT DUKE (14-2 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-5 O/U): The Blue Devils allowed North Carolina State and Miami to convert 20-of-36 beyond the arc after holding opponents to 26.4 percent during their winning streak. Another of the areas Krzyzewski figures to address is his team’s lackluster play after intermission as Duke has surrendered at least 50 points in the second half in its losses – matching the number it had allowed over the previous two seasons. Duke’s recent 3-point shooting woes on the offensive end – 13-of-38 in the two losses – haven’t slowed down freshman Jahlil Okafor (18.9 points, 9.4 rebounds), who has posted three consecutive double-doubles despite consistent double-and triple-teams.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (15-2 SU, 4-10-2 ATS, 7-6 O/U): Pitino spent much of his time in his postgame interviews Tuesday talking about the overall improvement of his team and specifically Chris Jones, who dished out a career-high 11 assists. "We're getting better and I think it all stems from Jones' willingness to be a leader and to be a point guard. I just think he is becoming smarter … he is playing like a point guard should play and I am happy to see he is evolving into that," Pitino said. Thanks to Jones’ solid play against Virginia Tech, the Cardinals tied a season low with seven turnovers and knocked down 10 3-pointers – one shy of matching a season high.

TRENDS:

*Blue Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Atlantic Coast.
*Cardinals are 1-8-2 ATS in their last 11 home games.
*Over is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
*Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

 

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NCAAB

LSU won three of four SEC games with Texas A&M, winning by 4-19 in two games played here; Tigers won 10 of last 11 games; all three of their SEC games (2-1) were decided by 4 points or in OT. A&M split its last eight games but lost in double OT to Kentucky; Aggies are shooting 27% from arc in SEC games. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 2-5-2 vs spread. LSU is playing fastest-paced games in SEC.

15-2 Louisville's last seven wins were vs teams outside top 100- they've lost to Kentucky/UNC in last two top 100 tilts. Cardinals aren't going to foul line as much as they'd like. Duke lost last two games after 14-0 start; opponents hit on 20-36 3's in those games, scoring 88.5 ppg. ACC home teams are 6-2 vs spread in games with spread of 5 or less points. Duke is playing only third road game (won by 8 at Wake, lost at NC State by 12).

Kansas had won 19 of last 20 games vs Iowa State before losing in Big X tourney to Cyclones last March; Jayhawks won first three league games by 1-32-10 points; they're 2-1 on road, winning by 1 at Baylor, by 5 at Georgetown, losing at Temple. Iowa State's last four games (2-2) were all decided by 4 or less points; this is Cyclones' 5th game in row vs a top 40 opponent. Big X home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-4 vs spread.

Miami scored 56 second half points, won 90-74 at Duke Wednesday, as Hurricanes scored 1.22 ppp, making 10-20 from arc. Hurricanes won at vs Notre Dame 71-64 LY, despite Irish going 13-28 from arc. Miami won all three true road games, also winning at Florida/Charlotte. Notre Dame's last four games were all decided by 6 or less points or in OT; they're 4-1 in ACC, 1-1 at home. ACC home faves of 6+ points are 5-7 vs spread.

Wichita State is 19-4 in last 23 games vs Evansville, sweeping three from Aces LY by 14-16-22 points, after losing twice to them the year before. Shockers are 5-0 in Valley, allowing 50.3 ppg in last three- their two road wins are by 8-14 points. Wichita won three of last four visits here, with wins by 6-1-16. Evansville is 3-2 in Valley, with four of five games won by 4 or less points. MVC home underdogs are 4-6 vs spread.

Maryland upset Michigan State 69-66 in double OT in East Lansing in its first Big 14 game Dec 30; Terps were 26-32 on foul line, survived turning ball over 21 times, holding State to 37% inside arc, 5-22 outside it. State is 3-0 since then with a win at Iowa- their last three losses were all in OT. Maryland is 4-1 in league, winning home games by 12 over Minnesota, 8 over Rutgers. Big 14 home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-9 vs spread.

Home side won last five Kentucky-Alabama games, as Wildcats lost last two visits here by 2-4 points. Five of last six series games were decided by 6 or less points. Kentucky is 16-0; two of first three SEC wins were in OT, then they crushed Missouri. Alabama is 0-4 vs top 50 teams with losses by 10-13-1-2 points; best team they've beaten is #54 UCLA. SEC home underdogs are 3-1 against the spread.

Georgetown swept Butler LY by 3-8 points, but lost 64-58 to Bulldogs in Bahamas in November; Hoyas were just 10-19 on line that day- they're 3-2 in Big East, with last three games all decided by 6 or less points. Big East home favorites of less than 5 points are 3-4 vs spread. Butler won three of last four games, winning last two road games, at Seton Hall and St John's. Butler is rebounding 39.5% of its own misses in league play.

Texas lost three of last five games, scoring 53.5 ppg in losing its last two; Longhorns swept West Virginia LY by 11-17-17 points, after WVa beat them twice year before. Mountaineers won all three true road games by 11+ points; they're forcing turnovers 31.4% of time (27.8% in its Big X games), #1 in country. Big X home favorites of 7 or less points are 6-4 vs spread. Texas is shooting 34.7% inside arc their last three games.

Oklahoma won four of last five games vs Oklahoma State, winning last 10 series games played here, with last three all by 9+ points. Oklahoma lost last two games, including home loss to K-State; Sooners are 9-0 if they score 70+ points, 2-5 if they don't. Cowboys lost first two Big X away games by 2-10 points, scoring 59 ppg- they're 1-3 in true road games, winning at Memphis. Big X home favorites of 7+ points are 5-3-2.

Arizona is 7-0 vs Utah in Pac-12 games, winning three games here by 9-3-9 points. Wildcats are 8-1 vs top 100 teams, 2-0 vs top 50, with two wins by total of five points. Utah won seven in row since losing by 3 to Kansas after trailing by 21 in second half; Utes allowed 50.5 ppg in first four Pac-12 games; they're making 45% of 3's in conference play. Pac-12 home favorites of 8 or less points are 5-1 vs spread.

BYU swept St Mary's by 13-3 points LY after losing first four games vs Gaels in WCC; Cougars scored 91 ppg in winning first three WCC road games, wins by 35-31-13 points. St Mary's won last eight games, giving up 51.7 ppg in last three; they won first three WCC home games by 13-13-12 points. WCC home favorites of 6 or less points are 1-6 vs spread. Gaels are 1-2 vs top 100 teams; best win was over #78 Pepperdine.

Sacramento State won four of last five games with Eastern Washington, which lost four of last five visits here. Eagles are 4-0 in Big Sky, scoring 90.5 ppg in road wins by 3-7 at Idaho/Portland State. Hornets are 4-1 in Big Sky, making 44.7% of their 3's; they're 7-1 at home, with only loss to Portland of WCC by 5. Eagles are 6-0 vs teams ranked outside top 200. Big Sky home underdogs are 1-4 against the spread.

 

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'College Hoops'

Kentucky Wildcats (16-0, 9-7 ATS) aim to preserve the unblemished record when they visit Alabama Crimson Tide (12-4, 8-5-1 ATS) Saturday afternoon. After needing OT to dispose Mississippi and Texas A&M in the first two SEC games the Wildcats reclaiming some swagger Tuesday night crushing Mizzou 86-37 cashing as 24 point favorites. It's not difficult to make a case for Wildcats remaining undefeated, especially with it's top ranked defense (50.6 PPG) allowing opponents to shoot a lowly 31.0% from the field. However, against the betting number things get dicey. The Wildcats have a tendency to falter against the betting line when running the hardwood against a conference opponent (1-8 ATS). Alabama playing well at home this season with it's own brand of solid defense (58.2) the lean is Crimson Tide entering 9-3-1 ATS vs the SEC, 6-1 ATS last seven encounters with Wildcats.

 

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College Basketball: Streaks, Tips, Notes -

Colorado Buffaloes at Arizona State Sun Devils January 17, 04:00 EST

When the Colorado Buffaloes (9-6, 7-7-1 ATS) visit the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-9, 7-10 ATS) Saturday afternoon the teams will be looking to continue a solid 'Under' trend for bettors. In the Buffaloes' and Sun Devils' last 6 meetings the teams are 6-0 to the 'Under'. More ammunition for 'Under' gamblers, the Buffaloes have played 'Under' in 22 of it's last 28 road games and have a 5-1 'Under' stretch going vs the conference. On the other side, Sun Devils have played 'Under' in 15-of-21 home games vs a team with a losing road record and are 6-3-1 'Under' last ten hosting a Pac-12 opponent.

 

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#1 Sports

Early Saturday's free selection: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets + 5 1/2

 

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Mike Wynn

Bonus Play: NBA Charlotte -1½ Over Indiana

 

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Razor Sharp

FREE PICK FOR EARLY SATURDAY: Take WILLIAM & MARY -6½ over Towson St

 

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Totals4U

Early Saturday's Free Selection: Central Florida/Memphis under 136