Saturday 1/14/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NBA

Saturday’s games

Lakers beat Clippers 111-102 on Christmas, their first win in last ten series games; Lakers covered five of last six. Seven of last eight series games stayed under total. Clippers won last five games (4-1 vs spread); they’re 4-7-1 in last 12 games as a Staples favorite. Five of their last six games stayed under total. Lakers lost last two games by 21-40 points; they won three of last four games at Staples. Over is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Bulls won their last four games with New Orleans; over is 3-2 in last five games played here. Pelicans covered their last five games in Windy City (2-3 SU). New Orleans won its last two games; they covered four of last five road games. Under is 6-1 in their last seven games. Bulls lost their last three games; they’re 2-9 in last 11 games as a home favorite. Four of their last five games stayed under total.

Spurs won their last nine games with Phoenix, covering five of last six; three of last four series games went over. San Antonio won four of last five games, covered 12 of last 15 (11-3 as a favorite). Over is 7-2 in their last nine games. Phoenix lost seven of last eight games away from home; they covered four of last six as an underdog. Under is 5-2 in their last seven games. This game is in Mexico City; Suns lost to Dallas here couple nights ago.

76ers won three in row, five of last six games; they’re 1-4 vs spread on road if they played at home night before. Four of their last five games stayed under. Washington won six of its last nine games, covered nine of last ten at home. Over is 6-3 in their last nine home games. Wizards won six of last seven games with Philly, but Sixers covered last three; over is 5-5 in last ten series games. 76ers lost their last four visits here (1-3 vs spread).

Jazz won seven of last ten games with Orlando; three of last four series games went over total. Magic won two of last three visits here; they covered last four visits to Utah. Orlando snapped 4-game skid last night in Portland; they’re 12-4 in last 16 games as a road underdog. Four of their last five games stayed under. Utah waxed Detroit by 33 last night; they’re 6-9 as home favorites. Last five Jazz games stayed under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Saturday's Elite Eight
By Tony Mejia

A look at the day's top eight college basketball matchups, ranked in order of most attractive.

Saturday, Jan. 14

Matchup Records Skinny Projection

Florida State
Overall: 16-1 SU, 10-5 ATS
ACC: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
Totals: 8-7 O/U

North Carolina
Overall: 15-3 SU, 8-8 ATS
ACC: 3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS
Totals: 6-11 O/U

Florida State at North Carolina, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
A victory here would put the Seminoles two games up on every team in the ACC except Notre Dame, so continuing their unprecedented run in league play with a road upset here would put them on the fast track for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with two months left until Selection Sunday. FSU comes off one of the finest wins in program history, an 88-72 rout of Duke where they shot 57.5 percent in the second half, beating Duke in all phases. This is no fluke. The ‘Noles have a lottery pick in leading rebounder and shot blocker Jonathan Isaac, a 6-10 forward that grew eight inches in high school like Anthony Davis did and retained his guard skills. Xavier Rathan-Mayes has had a quiet season but led the way against Duke with 21 points, while top scorer Dwayne Bacon (17.8 ppg) is often flammable. Sophomore Terance Mann has played his best of late, and 7-footer Michael Ojo leads a stable of capable role players. The Tar Heels have a veteran team with considerably more big-game experience and will be in their comfort zone at home, but they’ve got injury concerns. Backup center Tony Bradley, a freshman standout, will be sidelined by concussion, a big blow softened only slightly be the fact Theo Pinson has returned after missing most of the season healing from a broken foot. Borderline first-round pick Justin Jackson (17.7, 4.9) and Kennedy Meeks (12.9, 9.7) will have to do the heavy lifting up front. UNC is perfect at the Smith Center this season, improving to 5-2 ATS after last Sunday's 107-56 rout of NC State. The Heels lost only once at home last season and won in Tallahassee 106-90 in its highest-scoring game.

North Carolina 85
Florida State 81


Saint Mary's
Overall: 15-1 SU, 8-4-1 ATS
West Coast: 5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS
Totals: 5-8 O/U

Gonzaga
Overall: 16-0 SU, 11-2 ATS
West Coast: 4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS
Totals: 7-6 O/U

Saint Mary's at Gonzaga, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Although they likely worked on some details of the game plan for this colossal WCC matchup, neither the Zags nor Gaels were caught looking ahead on Thursday night. Gonzaga hung a 93-55 beating on Loyola Marymount to remain the nation’s lone unbeaten, while Saint Mary’s was even more impressive in a 74-33 win at rested Portland. They led 37-9 at the break. The rematch will be held in Moraga on Feb. 11, and there’s probably going to be another in the WCC Tournament. Saint Mary’s won both regular-season meetings a year ago to win the title, but lost in the conference tourney championship game. Not surprisingly, the ‘Zags were able to speed up the pace in that final, while the other two were lower-scoring. Saint Mary’s employs the second-slowest tempo in the country and can lock you down defensively. Tune in for the point guard battle between Nigel Williams-Goss and Emmett Naar, but stay for the big man wars between SMC’s Jock Landale, Dane Prineau and Evan Fitzner against Gonzaga’s Przemek Karnowski and Zach Collins. Gonzaga lost four games at home last season, a rarity in Spokane, so this one will be personal as they attempt to remain perfect. Gonzaga has beaten eight consecutive opponents by double-digits. Saint Mary's has done the same in nine straight since a 65-51 home loss to Texas-Arlington on Dec. 8. It should be noted that the only times this season that Gonzaga failed to cover the spread, the game went 'under.'

Gonzaga 65
Saint Mary's 63


Duke
Overall: 14-3 SU, 7-9 ATS
ACC: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Totals: 7-9 O/U

Louisville
Overall: 14-3 SU, 10-5 ATS
ACC: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS
Totals: 3-12 O/U

Duke at Louisville, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Blue Devils lost three straight in January last season, but ultimately rallied in a down year to follow up a national championship with a Sweet 16 appearance. They haven’t lost consecutive games since, but are in danger of doing so after a bleak effort in Tallahassee became the first setback since Jeff Capel took over for Mike Krzyzewski as he recovers from back surgery. Duke is 0-2 on the road in league play and in danger of falling under .500 in the conference this deep in for the first time since 2007, so we’ll see how resilient this group can be without Coach K. Currently, controversial guard Grayson Allen is taking the bulk of the criticism for his on-court extra-curriculars, but he’s actually being a good teammate by taking most of the heat off the true key to Duke’s success going forward, the continued emergence of freshmen Jayson Tatum and Harry Giles. With senior big man Amile Jefferson sidelined by a bone bruise in his foot, the kids must lead the charge. Duke can’t beat Louisville solely with Allen, Luke Kennard and Matt Jones firing from the perimeter. The Cards are too sound defensively and generate miscues with their pressure. Forward Deng Adel overcame a concussion and has been the x-factor of late, while guards Quentin Snider and Donovan Mitchell have been sound. Rick Pitino complained that his team isn’t “fundamentally sound” after it allowed Pitt to nearly come all the way back from a 24-point second half deficit thanks to Jamel Artis’ 43 points. It might help the ‘Ville to have suffered that near-collapse since it should ensure they’ll be locked in for the 40 minutes it’s going to take to win this one. This will be the only meeting barring an ACC Tournament matchup. Duke is 2-1 against the Cardinals since they joined the conference. The over has prevailed in its last four games.

Duke 78
Louisville 77


Xavier
Overall: 13-3 SU, 9-6 ATS
Big East: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Totals: 7-8 O/U

Butler
Overall: 14-3 SU, 10-5 ATS
Big East: 3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS
Totals: 6-7-2 O/U

Xavier at Butler, 2 p.m. ET, FS1
This is a huge game for the Bulldogs, who are in danger of falling two games back of Big East’s beasts if they falter at home. Fortunately, they’re 10-0 in Indianapolis, which includes a 9-0 mark at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse. They’ll need a little home cooking to come into play against a Musketeers squad looking to avoid their fourth road loss in five games, having also remained perfect at home. Xavier is hoping to bounce back from a 79-54 loss at Villanova where it shot 29 percent and missed 26 of 32 3-pointers. The Muskies shot 57 percent in a 74-57 victory at Hinkle last season, handing Butler its last lost in its building, and has a three-game winning streak in the series. Butler hasn’t lost two straight since last January, a stretch of 30 games, and has shown off its resiliency by bouncing back from losses with takedowns of Creighton, Georgetown, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Providence. That’s impressive. The key matchup here features terrific wings Kelan Martin (16.8, 5.5) and Trevvon Bluiett (17.3, 5.9), two of the top players in the Big East, squaring off. Both come off bad games, but Bluiett got the better of their duels last season as Martin shot just 33 percent against Xavier’s defense, averaging just 13 points. Martin is slumping in conference play, averaging just 12.0 points on 30 percent shooting.

Butler 73
Xavier 65



UCLA
Overall: 17-1 SU, 11-7 ATS
Pac-12: 4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS
Totals: 10-7-1 O/U

Utah
Overall: 12-4 SU, 7-6 ATS
Pac-12: 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 ATS
Totals: 8-6 O/U

UCLA at Utah, 6 p.m. ET, Pac-12N
Although Arizona and Oregon remain undefeated in Pac-12 play, these teams are right behind them and will look to keep pace in what should be a fun atmosphere in Salt Lake City. UCLA responded to the challenge of playing in Boulder’s altitude with a 104-89 thrashing of Colorado, riding Bryce Alford’s 37-point night and nine 3-pointers. The Bruins set a program-record with 19 3-pointers on just 31 shots. UCLA averages 93.4 points per game and owns the country’s second-highest shooting percentage. They’ll run up against one of the better defenses in the league in the Utes, which held USC to 36.7 percent shooting in Thursday’s 86-64 loss. Utah took advantage of the Trojans missing 12 layups and lacking rhythm, but also impressed by making nine straight shots just before halftime to put the game away. They shot a season-best 9-for-17 from beyond the arc, so we’ll see if they can stay hot against a team they won’t be able to slow down as effectively with their zone. Utah will need to score to pull off this upset, but do have quality size in bigs David Collette and Kyle Kuzma that should be able to generate some matchup problems. Utah has athletes in Lorenzo Bonam, JoJo Zamora and Devon Daniels that should be active on the perimeter, but they’re going to have to make shots. Shooter Sedrick Barefield would be a valuable x-factor if he can get it going. Despite their gaudy offensive numbers, the ‘under’ is actually 4-3 in UCLA’s last seven, but both teams have seen the ‘over’ thrive in their last two contests.

UCLA 85
Utah 80



Notre Dame
Overall: 15-2 SU, 6-3-2 ATS
ACC: 4-0 SU, 3-0-1 ATS
Totals: 7-4 O/U

Virginia Tech
Overall: 13-3 SU, 7-5-1 ATS
ACC: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS
Totals: 7-4-1 O/U

Notre Dame at Virginia Tech, 2 p.m. ET, WatchESPN
Notre Dame has opened ACC play with four consecutive wins, marking the first time in school history that it has done so in either the Big East or this league. Remember, Fighting Irish basketball remained an Independent until 1995, so this streak doesn’t date too far into their marvelous history but remains impressive. They’re looking to improve to 5-0 in the top league in the country by winning their first three road games, having squeaked past both Pittsburgh and Miami. Notre Dame largely controlled Thursday’s win over the Hurricanes before falling behind and rallying to rescue the result. Steve Vasturia, who beat Pitt with big shots in OT, helped put the game away after V.J. Beachem’s huge bucket. Junior Bonzie Colson (15.9, 10.8), one of the nation’s premier power forwards, was held to a season-low eight points and Notre Dame still won, so this group will be confident going into Blacksburg. The Hokies are 24-6 at home over the last two seasons and rank among the top 26 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting percentage. They’ve been explosive at home, coming in undefeated. The over is perfect in Virginia Tech’s games in the new year. Notre Dame is 3-0-1 against the number in ’17. Guard Seth Allen returned from a head injury suffered in Tech’s first league loss at NC State that kept him out of the FSU setback, so they’re happy to have his stabilizing presence back in the lineup for this key game they hope to capture in order to climb back above .500 in the conference.

Virginia Tech 84
Notre Dame 79



Baylor
Overall: 15-1 SU, 7-4 ATS
Big 12: 3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS
Totals: 3-7-1 O/U

Kansas State
Overall: 13-3 SU, 8-3-1 ATS
Big 12: 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS
Totals: 5-7 O/U

Baylor at Kansas State, 4:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
The Bears opened the week No. 1 for the first time in school history but were then thumped by West Virginia. The result was fairly predictable given the environment in Morgantown and the pressure the Mountaineers put on teams, taking them out of their comfort zone. Although termed an “upset,” West Virginia was a 5.5-point favorite and covered easily in an 89-68 rout, but Baylor should be more in their element here despite K-State opening as a slight favorite too. This game should be played at a more deliberate pace, which allows Baylor to exploit its length in the post and out on the perimeter. Prior to their trip to Morgantown, the Bears had surrendered more than 63 points only once. It will be interesting to see whether they’ll be able to clamp down on a Wildcats offense that has scored at least 65 in all but of their games. Coming off a 66-65 loss at Texas Tech that it blew down the stretch, K-State is perfect in Manhattan this season, but has feasted on a relatively light home schedule and held serve as definitive favorites against Texas and Oklahoma. Wesley Iwundu (12.3) leads five double-digit scorers in a balanced attack that could have success against Baylor by moving the ball around patiently. D.J. Johnson and Dean Wade will get their chance to prove they can hang with two of the elite bigs in the conference in Johnathan Motley and Jo Lual-Acuil. The Wildcats knocked off Buddy Hield-led Oklahoma at home when it was ranked No. 1 last season, but lost to Baylor by 10 points in Manhattan and in double-OT in Waco.

Baylor 76
Kansas State 67



Georgia
Overall: 11-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
SEC: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
Totals: 5-7 O/U

Florida
Overall:13-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
SEC: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS
Totals: 8-6 O/U

Georgia at Florida, 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Kentucky, South Carolina and Florida have separated themselves as the class of the SEC, but the Dawgs have a shot to crash the party despite opening as a double-digit underdog entering this trip to Gainesville. Georgia was extremely impressive in a 69-47 win at Ole Miss and has the potential to go on a run, but needs to show that it can hang with the top teams in the league since they’ve lost games to Clemson, Kansas and Marquette already in addition to opening 2017 with a 67-61 home loss to the Gamecocks. Forward Yante Maten and guard J.J. Frazier are two of the conference’s top talents, so the potential is there. The Gators, ranked third nationally in RPI, will look to snuff out Georgia’s aspirations by winning their seventh straight and are perfect at home in the newly renovated and renamed Exactech Arena at O’Connell Center. Florida has won their first three games there, averaging 82.3 points in taking down Little Rock, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Guards Kasey Hill and Ke’Vaughn Allen have formed the best backcourt in the league outside of Lexington. Thus far, the Gators have eluded an SEC-wide trend that has seen road teams go 17-7 against all other schools. Georgia’s Mark Fox is 3-9 against Florida and has never won in Gainesville, a feat that has eluded the Dawgs since 2002. Maybe they’ll appreciate the renovation, but it will take a double-double from Yaten, who most avoid foul trouble, to pull off an upset. Frazier will also need another guard to step up and take some pressure off him, so keep an eye on sophomore freshman Turtle Jackson or freshman Jordan Harris as a potential x-factor.

Florida 73
Georgia 69

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Basketball Expert Predictions: Three Interesting Jan. 14 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

I have yet to see any odds on a player to win the Wooden Award, but they will be out eventually -- probably at sportsbooks after the Super Bowl once the books shift their focus to basketball. But the Wooden Award Midseason Top 25 list was revealed this week, and just one player who was on last year's Midseason ranking is back: Maryland's Melo Trimble. Four players who were not on the Preseason Top 50 have joined: Baylor's Johnathan Motley; Butler's Kelan Martin; UCLA's TJ Leaf (a freshman); and Duke's Luke Kennard. If I had to pick a favorite right now it would be Villanova senior Josh Hart. In February, a Top 20 list will be released and the final ballot is produced in March. The winner is announced around the Final Four.

No. 7 Duke at No. 14 Louisville (-4)

ACC matchup tips off at noon ET on ESPN. I try not to fall into the trap of previewing every Duke game, but the Blue Devils seem to always be in the news for something and they are the most popular college basketball team to bet on, albeit mostly against because the majority of people don't like Duke. And I really am tired of Grayson Allen's antics, but if you saw him push a Florida State assistant coach while diving for a loose ball over the FSU bench in Tuesday's loss in Tallahassee, well, I don't think that was accidental. If any other player does that, it's not even noticed. But Allen gave a hard two-handed shove. The FSU assistant said it wasn't dirty, and I guess that puts an end to things. Allen clearly doesn't get it, though. He also left the game with six minutes remaining due to a head injury. It's not thought to be serious. Allen had nine points and five assists. Big man Amile Jefferson missed the game with a foot injury. He's probably out here too.

Louisville was in a potential look-ahead game on Wednesday at home against Pittsburgh and failed to cover the 13-point spread in an 85-80 victory. The Cards pretty clearly took their foot off the gas and were perhaps starting to think about Duke as they nearly blew a 59-35 lead with 14 minutes left. Jamel Artis singlehandedly brought the Panthers back as he torched one of the nation's best defenses for 43 points. It was the most against Louisville since 1995. The 32 3-point attempts by Pittsburgh were the most by a Louisville opponent since Notre Dame's 34 on Feb. 4, 2006. Duke and Louisville split both meetings last year and Allen was involved in a bit of a scrap with a U of L player in both. Think he might be baited here?

Key trends: The Blue Devils are 1-6-1 against the spread in their past eight road games. The Cards are 1-6 ATS in their past seven vs. the ACC. The home team is 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings.

I'm leaning: Louisville.

No. 9 Florida State at No. 11 North Carolina ( -7.5 )

We stay in the ACC with a 2 p.m. ET tip on ESPN. The Seminoles are a legit Final Four threat, and this is the school's best team under Coach Leonard Hamilton. They are currently +2500 to win the National Championship. That's solid value. Florida State dominated Duke 88-72 on Tuesday for its school-record 12th straight win. Hamilton has a deep roster and he used 12 different players, 10 of whom scored at least two points. Junior guard Xavier Rathan-Mayes led with 21 points. The Seminoles' 16-point margin of victory was their largest ever over Duke (the previous was five, on multiple occasions) and their third-biggest win over a Top-10 team. But I'll just tell you right now that while I like this team, this sets up as a major letdown effort. Not just because of the huge win over Duke but because it's FSU's fourth straight game against a ranked team. Deep or not, this group is going to run out of gas in Chapel Hill.

North Carolina wasn't overly sharp in a 93-87 win at Wake Forest on Wednesday. That was a letdown game after a record-setting win over rival NC State on Sunday. The Heels led Wake by as many as 19 in the second half and the Deacons were able to get within one. Justin Jackson hit a big 3-pointer with 1:03 left. He finished with 19 points, while Kennedy Meeks had 18 points and 11 rebounds. Freshman center Tony Bradley left with a concussion so he's probably out here. He averages 8.1 points and 5.7 rebounds. This is the Heels' fourth game vs. a ranked foe and they are 1-2. The first three were all away from home.

Key trends: The Noles are 4-0 ATS in their past four vs. the ACC. The Heels are 11-3 ATS in their past 14 at home. FSU is 1-5 ATS in the past six meetings.

I'm leaning: UNC beat FSU by 19 last year in the lone meeting and a similar result wouldn't surprise me.

No. 10 West Virginia at Texas (+12)

Big 12 matchup at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2. In my mind, this is the trap game of the day. The Mountaineers were fantastic at home Tuesday night in handing No. 1 Baylor its first loss in an 89-68 spanking. WVU's pressure defense forced a whopping 29 turnovers. The Bears, whose previous season high of turnovers was 16, played 11 guys and eight at multiple turnovers. Nathan Adrian starred for WVU with a career-high 22 points, six rebounds, three steals and two assists. It was the second consecutive year West Virginia has knocked off No. 1 at home in January. Last season, it was Kansas that lost to the Mountaineers, 74-63. WVU did lose its next game, albeit at a very good Oklahoma team.

Texas is struggling with a 7-9 record and things are about to get worse as sophomore swingman Tevin Mack has been suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules. He's the team's leading scorer at 14.8 ppg and averages 4.8 rebounds and a team-high 31.3 minutes. Mack also was suspended for the season opener for an undisclosed incident. He had nine points and nine rebounds in 38 minutes in Wednesday's 64-61 home loss to TCU. It was the Frogs' first win in Austin since 1987. Guard Kendal Yancy missed his third straight game with a high ankle sprain, and he's not playing here.

Key trends: The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 vs. the Big 12. UT is 13-5 ATS in its past 18 vs. the Big 12. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six.

I'm leaning: I still like UT to cover here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB

Saturday’s games

Duke doesn’t play true road games in pre-conference and it shows; they’re 0-2 in ACC road games, losing by 14 at Va Tech, 16 at Florida St. Blue Devils are 4-3 vs top 100 teams this year; they’re won two of three ACC games with Louisville, losing 71-64 here LY after winning by 11 year before. Louisville won three of last four games but was up 21 at half vs Pitt in last game, only won by 5. Cardinals scored 63-53-70 in losses; does Duke defend well enough to hold them to that? ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread. Duke is without Coach K/big man Jefferson.

Clemson lost its last three games after an 11-2 start; they’re 7-3 in top 100 games, have played #13 schedule but loss at Ga Tech last game was ugly. Tigers are better when they run, which doesn’t happen a lot against UVa. Virginia is 3-1 in true road games with only loss in OT at Pitt- they’ve made 44.4% of 3’s in ACC games. Cavaliers are 6-3 in top 100 games; they’re playing slowest tempo games in country. Virginia won its last five games with Clemson, winning by 5 in last visit here. ACC single digit home underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread.

Miami was outscored 10-1 down stretch in home loss to Notre Dame Wednesday, its second loss in row after an 11-2 start. Hurricanes are 1-1 in true road games, winning at No Florida, losing by 15 at Syracuse- they’re shooting 48% on line in ACC games. Miami won its last two games with Pitt by 4-2 points; last three series games were decided by a total of 10 points. Pitt lost three of last four games, with two of those in OT- they lost last game by 5 at Louisville, after being down by 26 at one point. ACC home favorites of 5 or less points are 5-2 vs spread.

Minnesota is 9-2 in its last 11 games, with both losses to Michigan St; Gophers are 7-3 vs top 100 teams, 2-1 in Big 14 road games, winning at Purdue/Northwestern. Penn State won its last three games with Minnesota by 5-4-9 points; Gophers lost 63-58/86-77 in last two visits here. Nittany Lions split first four league games, losing by 10 to Northwestern in only game in this gym- they beat Michigan St in Philly last game. Penn State is 1-5 vs top 100 teams this season. Big 14 home favorites of less than 5 points are 6-2 vs spread.

Notre Dame is 4-0 in ACC, with all four wins vs top 40 teams behind steady play of junior PG Farrell, a much-improved player. Irish won only two true road games by total of six points, at Pitt/Miami. Notre Dame won its three ACC games with Virginia Tech by 7-25-2 points, winning 85-60 in last visit here. Hokies are 2-0 in ACC home games, beating Duke/Syracuse- they’re 0-2 on road. Tech is 5-3 vs top 100 teams; they’re shooting 39.9% on arc for season ACC home teams are 5-3-1 vs spread in games where spread was 4 or less points.

Butler is 3-2 in Big East games, 2-0 at home, beating Providence/Villanova- they lost last game by 11 at Creighton. Xavier is 6-1 vs Butler in Big East games, winning two of three visits here; Musketeers swept Butler LY, winning by 19-17 points- they’re 2-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse in Big East tilts. Xavier lost by 25 at Villanova Tuesday, ending their 6-game win streak; they’re 1-3 in true road games, with only win by 5 at Georgetown. Big East home favorites are 13-3 against the spread, 8-2 if laying single digits.

Florida State won its last 12 games; they’re deep (#22 in bench minutes) team that is 4-0 in ACC, winning by hoop at Virginia in only ACC road game. FSU’s only loss this season was by 3 to Temple on a neutral floor. North Carolina won its last six games with Florida State, winning last three series games here, by 20-21-4 points- UNC won 106-90 in Tallahassee LY. Tar Heels won last three home games, by 43-28-51 points; they’re grabbing 42.4% of their own missed shots in ACC play. ACC home favorites of 6 or more points are 5-4 vs spread.

Houston is 4-1 in AAC with three of those wins on road; they’re holding AAC foes to 35.4% inside arc in league play. Cougars are #38 experience team that starts two juniors, two seniors. Houston beat Central Florida twice LY, by 24-27 points; LY’s win here was Houston’s first in last five visits to UCF. Knights are turning ball over 22.4% of time, are 3-2 vs top 100 teams; they had 5-game win streak snapped in 64-49 loss at UConn in last game. UCF is also experienced, #31 in country. AAC home underdogs are 1-9 vs spread this season.

Baylor jumped to #1 in country for first time ever, then turned ball over 29 times in 21-point loss at WVa Monday; Bears won by 2 at Oklahoma in only other true road games this season. Baylor won its last three games with Kansas State by 27-7-10 points; Bears are 3-2 in last five visits to Little Apple. K-State won eight of last 10 games, losing last two on road; they beat Oklahoma/Texas by 11-3 points in Big 14 home games. Wildcats have best eFG% in Big X games so far this month. Big 14 favorites of 3 or less points are 1-4 vs spread this season.

Iowa State won its last eight games with TCU, winning by 13-11-13-13 points in four visits here, but Horned Frogs have made quantum leap this year. TCU is 13-3, 2-2 in league, losing to top 5 teams Kansas/WVa- their two league wins are both by 3 points. Cyclones are #4 experience team in country; they’re 3-1 in big X, losing by hoop at Baylor, winning by 10 at Oklahoma State. ISU lost by 14 at Iowa in its other true road game. Cyclones protect ball better than anyone in country. Single digit home favorites are 2-6 vs spread in Big X play this season.

Utah is 3-2 in its last five games with UCLA, winning last two meetings here by 5-32 points- they beat Bruins 71-39 here two years ago, but those Bruins ain’t these Bruins. UCLA made 19-31 3’s in win at Colorado Thursday; they’re 30-51 on arc in last two games, are #1 in country, at 44.1% behind arc. Utah is healthy now; they drilled USC by 22 here Thursday. Utes won five of last six games with only loss by 10 at Arizona- they beat Colorado by 16 in other Pac-12 home game. Pac-12 home underdogs are 4-5 this season, 2-3 if getting single digits.

Wichita State is 14-3 in its last 17 games with Illinois State, but lost two of last three, losing 58-53 here LY, their first loss in last six visits to Normal. Shockers won last six games, are 2-0 on Valley road, winning by 14 at No Iowa, 8 at Indiana St- their three losses are all to top 50 teams. Redbirds won last six games, are also 5-0 in Valley, beating Evansville by 12, Missouri State in OT in their two Valley home tilts. Illinois State has best eFG% defense in MVC so far. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.

St Mary’s swept Gonzaga in regular season LY but Zags beat them 85-75 in WCC final that kept Gaels out of NCAAs. Gonzaga is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning four of last five meetings in the Kennel. Zags are 16-0 this season, 6-0 vs top 100 teams, their last close game was 69-62 win Dec 3 over Arizona. St Mary’s won its last nine games; three of their five WCC wins came on road- their only loss was by 14 to Tex-Arlington at home. Gaels also have road wins at Dayton and Stanford. WCC single digit home favorites are 5-6 vs spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Storm pushes back Steelers-Chiefs kickoff
By The Sports Xchange

The NFL decided Friday to delay the kickoff time of Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game in Kansas City between the Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers from 1:05 p.m. ET to 8:20 p.m. because of an impending ice storm.
"Due to public safety concerns in light of the forecasted storm this weekend in the Kansas City area, Sunday's Steelers-Chiefs Divisional Playoff game on NBC has been moved," the NFL said in a statement.
"Moving the game from the original start time will provide local authorities more time to clear roads in the area as the weather is expected to improve throughout Sunday. The decision to make this time change was made in consultation with state and local officials as well as the Chiefs and the Steelers."
The National Weather Service issued an ice storm warning for the Kansas City area through Sunday evening, warning of a "dangerous and potentially crippling" situation with up to three-quarters of an inch of ice accumulating as the storm intensifies Saturday night, according to the Kansas City Star. The forecast for Sunday calls for warming temperatures and a change from freezing rain to rain later.

--The Green Bay Packers ruled out leading wide receiver Jordy Nelson with a rib injury for Sunday's divisional playoff game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters Friday that team doctors would not medically clear the ninth-year veteran to practice Saturday.
Nelson has been sidelined because of cracked ribs he sustained in last Sunday's 38-13 wild-card playoff win over the New York Giants.
Nelson is expected to travel with the team to Dallas and will be re-evaluated by team doctors on Monday, according to McCarthy. He led the team in receptions (97), receiving yards (1,257) and touchdown catches (14) during the regular season.

--Pittsburgh Steelers assistant coach Joey Porter was reinstated by the team and will return to the sidelines for Sunday's AFC divisional playoff game against the Kansas City Chiefs after charges were reduced from an alleged altercation at a bar.
The outside linebackers coach spent four days on team-administered leave following his arrest last Sunday night -- hours after the Steelers beat the Miami Dolphins in a wild-card game -- but the Allegheny County district attorney tossed out the most serious charges against Porter on Thursday.
Porter is now being charged with disorderly conduct and public drunkenness, both of which are summary charges in Pennsylvania, after initially being charged with aggravated assault, resistant arrest and defiant trespass.
The remaining citations have fines of up to $500 and 90 days in jail on each charge.

--The Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed defensive coordinator Mike Smith to a multi-year contract extension, ending speculation he would leave after one season to take one of the NFL's open head-coaching positions.
Smith interviewed for the openings in Jacksonville and San Diego (now Los Angeles). The Jaguars eventually retained interim coach Doug Marrone, and Smith chose to remove his name for consideration for the Chargers' job and any additional opportunities.
Just hours after the Chargers announced Thursday they were moving from San Diego to Los Angeles, they selected former Buffalo Bills interim head coach and offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn as their next head coach.
Smith, previously a head coach with the Atlanta Falcons, joined Dirk Koetter's staff last offseason.

--The Jacksonville Jaguars hired Joe DeCamillis as special teams coordinator.
DeCamillis, who is entering his 29th NFL season in 2017, joins new coach Doug Marrone's staff for a second stint with the Jaguars after previously serving with the club as the special teams coordinator from 2007-08.
DeCamillis spent the past two seasons as the special teams coordinator for the Denver Broncos. In 2016, DeCamillis' unit ranked seventh in the NFL in both opponents' punt return average (6.8) and opponents' kickoff return average (20.2), while finishing 11th in the NFL in kick return average (22.9).
DeCamillis' units accounted for 29 total kick return scores (18 punt returns, 11 kick returns) and 43 takeaways during his 24 seasons coaching special teams in the NFL.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Injury Report

Divisional Playoffs Injury Report

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS at ATLANTA FALCONS on Saturday
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
--Questionable: RB C.J. Prosise (shoulder)
ATLANTA FALCONS
No players listed

HOUSTON TEXANS at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS on Saturday
--Questionable: S Quintin Demps (hamstring), LB John Simon (chest)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
--Questionable: WR Malcolm Mitchell (knee)

GREEN BAY PACKERS at DALLAS COWBOYS on Sunday
GREEN BAY PACKERS
--Out: WR Jordy Nelson (ribs), RB James Starks (concussion), C J.C. Tretter (knee)
--Questionable: LB Jayrone Elliott (hand), WR Jeff Janis (quadricep), CB Quinten Rollins (neck, concussion)
DALLAS COWBOYS
--Questionable: CB Morris Claiborne (groin), DT Tyrone Crawford (shoulder), LB Justin Durant (elbow), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back), DT Terrell McClain (ankle), T Tyron Smith (knee), DT Cedric Thornton (ankle)

PITTSBURGH STEELERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS on Sunday
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: LB Anthony Chickillo (ankle)
--Doubtful: TE Ladarius Green (concussion)
--Questionable: DE Ricardo Mathews (ankle), RB Fitzgerald Toussaint (concussion)
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
No players listed

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Matchups, times set for divisional playoffs
By The Sports Xchange

After a wild-card weekend that featured no close results, the top seeds jump into action in the divisional playoffs next Saturday and Sunday.

The elite-eight action kicks off Saturday (4:35 p.m. ET, FOX) when the Seattle Seahawks, the NFC's third seed, play at Atlanta against the second-seeded Falcons.

In the Saturday night contest (8:15 p.m. ET, CBS), the fourth-seeded Houston Texans play at the top-seeded New England Patriots in the first AFC divisional playoff game.

The Sunday slate begins with the second AFC showdown: the third-seeded Pittsburgh Steelers at the second-seeded Kansas City Chiefs (1:05 p.m., NBC).

The Dallas Cowboys, the NFC's top seed, play host to the fourth-seeded Green Bay Packers on Sunday (4:40 p.m. ET, FOX) in the weekend finale.

The NFC Championship Game is scheduled for 3:05 p.m. (FOX) on Jan. 22, with the AFC Championship Game to follow at 6:40 p.m. (CBS).

Super Bowl LI will be played Feb. 5 at NRG Stadium in Houston (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL opening line report: Patriots open as massive favorites, line pushes higher
By PATRICK EVERSON

Short of that Hail Mary touchdown in the first half of the Giants-Packers game, the NFL wild-card weekend wasn’t really, well, wild. The four divisional-round matchups should provide a little more excitement and entertainment. We talk about the opening lines and early action with a couple of offshore sportsbook personnel: Peter Childs, head oddsmaker; and Scott Kaminsky, sports director.

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4)

Seattle had an up-and-down finish to the regular season, but looked the part of a playoff-tested team Saturday in the wild card game. The third-seeded Seahawks (11-5-1 SU, 9-8 ATS) coasted past Detroit 26-6 as an 8-point home chalk.

Now, the vaunted Seattle defense will be tested by an Atlanta offense that led the league, averaging 33.8 points per game. The Falcons (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS) earned the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye, finishing the regular season on a 4-0 SU run (3-1 ATS). Atlanta dropped New Orleans 38-32 in the finale as a 7.5-point home favorite.

These two teams met at Seattle in October, with the Seahawks squeaking out a 26-24 win as a 7-point fave.

“We posted Falcons -4 and 49.5. As expected, we’re seeing the public jump on the ‘dog in this game, as the bet count and money are on Seattle so far, which is fine,” Childs said Saturday night. “I really like this Falcons team, and I have no problem booking early Seahawks money here. The Falcons off a bye, they’ll be as healthy as they’ve been all year.

“What the public is forgetting is how poorly the Seahawks finished their regular season, yet the betting public is willing to forget the Seahawks’ weaknesses after beating up a very bad Lions team at home. The same betting public that faded the Seahawks (on Saturday) is now backing them against the far superior team, the same team that should have beaten Seattle in Seattle if not for an awful missed pass-interference call in the waning moments of that game.”

Childs said there was some Sunday support for the Falcons, pushing the number to 4.5.

“Now we’re seeing some real nice two-way action.”


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-14.5)

Fourth-seeded Houston may have won its wild card game with relative ease on Saturday, but it came against an Oakland team missing star quarterback Derek Carr, and the oddsmakers were not impressed. The Texans (10-7 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) posted a 27-14 home victory laying 4 points against the Raiders. Brock Osweiler, benched a few weeks back, had a serviceable game with no turnovers and will remain the starter this week.

New England led the NFL both SU and ATS this season, at 14-2 and 13-3, respectively, earning the bye week as the AFC’s top seed. The Patriots won their last seven in a row (6-1 ATS), including a 35-14 bashing of fellow playoff team Miami giving 7.5 points on the road in Week 17.

Patriots superstar Tom Brady, suspended the first four games of the season for Deflategate, has 28 touchdown passes against just two interceptions this season. Osweiler has 15 TD passes and 16 interceptions.

“We opened the Pats -14.5, and that’s the highest playoff number that I can remember,” Childs said. “If memory serves me correct, you’d have to go back all the way to when the NFC was dominating Super Bowls to find an opening line in that range, and that was back in the 1990s. Bottom line, the Texans beat up on a third-string QB (Connor Cook) who was making his first career NFL start Saturday. It was an awful situation for the Raiders, and it showed.

“The Patriots are the highest power-rated team in the NFL, going up against the worst playoff team left. We figured we couldn’t make this line high enough, and while we discussed opening 14, we wanted to err on the side of caution. If we happen to take early money on the dog, it would be welcomed.”

What’s happened instead is the line has already shot up to New England -16.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5)

Pittsburgh has now peeled off eight consecutive SU victories, going 6-1-1 ATS in that stretch. On Sunday in the wild card game, the third-seeded Steelers (12-5 SU, 10-6-1 ATS) blew past Miami 30-12 as a hefty 11-point home favorite. The Dolphins were without QB Ryan Tannehill, and Matt Moore was totally over-matched, throwing one INT, losing a pair of fumbles and taking five sacks.

Kansas City (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) nabbed the second seed and a bye week by winning the AFC West in a tiebreaker over Oakland. The Chiefs got out of the gate 2-2 SU and ATS, with the last of those four games a 43-14 beatdown at the hands of Pittsburgh, with K.C. a 3-point road ‘dog. However, Andy Reid’s troops went 10-2 SU (8-4 ATS) the rest of the way, topping San Diego 37-27 laying 5.5 points on the road in the regular-season finale.

“The Steelers are fresh off a dominating win over the hapless Dolphins. Miami came into that game with all kinds of injuries, especially on the offensive line, and it showed. They couldn’t protect their second-string QB, and the game got out of hand early,” Childs said. “The betting public is going to be very impressed with the Steelers’ showing (Sunday), and while I personally made the game pick ’em, there’s no doubt in my mind that the public is going to back the Steelers in this game, so we opened them a bit inflated. I believe the sharps are going to back the Chiefs big time, taking the home dog and the points.”

That’s precisely what happened early on. We opened Pittsburgh -2.5, and the line quickly flipped all the way to KC -2 before settling at Chiefs -1.5 Sunday night.

“It’s going to be a game where the pros will be butting heads with the Joes, with sharps on the Chiefs and Joe Q. Public on the Steelers,” Childs said.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)

Green Bay is nearly as hot as Pittsburgh, as it now owns a seven-game SU winning streak (6-1 ATS). The Packers rumbled over New York on Sunday, 38-13 as a 5-point home favorite in the NFC’s 4-5 matchup. Aaron Rodgers has 19 TD passes and no interceptions during the Packers’ surge, including three straight four-TD games heading into Dallas.

The Cowboys (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) claimed the NFC East title and the No. 1 seed, getting this past weekend off. After losing its season opener, Dallas ripped off 11 consecutive SU wins and beat the spread in the first nine of those games, riding rookie quarterback Dak Prescott and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott. In Week 17, with the top seed wrapped up, the Cowboys rested those two and more, losing at Philadelphia 27-13 as a 6.5-point pup.

We opened Dallas a 4.5-point home chalk and decided to move to 4 within a few minutes, with Green Bay at a price of -115.

“We took some money on the Cowboys, and now were at Dallas -4 (-115),” Kaminsky said. “It’s a great game. I don’t know how the number is gonna go. I know that I loved the Packers against the Giants, because I just like playing hot teams. But conversely, I like Dallas here.

“I hate to go against Rodgers, because he’s point-blank one of the top three quarterbacks of my era. I just think the Packers are gonna have a tough time stopping Elliott, and if Dak plays a decent game, I think the Cowboys are gonna cover. The week off is a big factor, too.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - DP
By Marcus DiNitto

The point-spread in Las Vegas on Sunday for next Saturday night’s AFC divisional playoff game was as high as New England -17 (even), a line that would make it the third biggest in NFL playoff history. The number, available at MGM Resorts, is surpassed only by two Super Bowls– Super Bowl III, when the Colts lost outright 16-7 as 18-point favorites to the Jets; and Super Bowl XXIX, when the 49ers covered the 19-point spread in a 49-26 triumph against the Chargers.

So is the number the Patriots are being asked to lay next week against Houston justified?

The Wynn opened the Pats at a shorter-but-still-hefty price of -14.5 and was pushed to -15.5 in early wagering Sunday.

"That’s sharps betting mostly, that’s not general public. Maybe they were just laying it because there were higher numbers out there," said John Avello, executive director of race and sports at the Vegas property. “When you look at the way Houston played against a team like the Patriots (in Week 3), I guess it’s justifiable, but it’s a really high number for a playoff game.”

The Texans were spotted just 1 point when they visited a Jacoby Brissett-led Patriots team in Week 3, and they got shellacked, 27-0.

Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons, whose shop opened New England -14.5 and moved to -16 during Sunday betting, said of the line, "I think it’s deserved. Our thinking was we knew it was more than two touchdowns and we knew it wasn’t 17 – it was somewhere in between there. So we opened 14.5, and essentially if someone was going to move up, we were going with them – and that’s what happened."

Handicappers looking to make a case for the underdog may point to the fact that by the most basic of statistics, Houston’s defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL (301.3 yards per game).

"Defensively, they’re okay. I don’t know if they’re the best team defensively in the league," Avello retorted. “Statistically they are, but they’re really not, and they’re going up to a place where the other team can score at will.”

Houston has also been dreadful away from home, going 2-5 both straight up and against the spread in true road games this season, including losses by large margins to Minnesota, Denver and Green Bay, in addition to the aforementioned bagel at Foxborough.

"Every time they play a good team on the road, they get killed," Salmons said. "(And) going from Connor Cook (in their wild-card win over Oakland) to Tom Brady in one week is about the greatest upgrade you’ll ever see at quarterback."

The total for next Saturday night, meanwhile, is hovering between 44.5 and 45 six days before kickoff.

Here’s are the Vegas consensus point spreads and totals, early line moves and thoughts from Avello and Salmons on the rest of the divisional round:


Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 51), Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET

The Westgate opened Atlanta -3.5 but moved up with market and landed at -4.5.

"After this weekend, you just can’t make the favorites high enough," Salmons said, after watching the chalk cash in all four wild-card games.

The Wynn opened 4.5 and took Seattle money at that number, before moving to 4 and writing action on the favorite.

While Avello was back at 4.5 when we spoke Sunday night, his futures book is another factor in his number for next Saturday.

"I’m not in bad shape (with Atlanta futures), I’m just in better shape with other teams, so I’ll try to force some money on the other side if I can," he said.

While William Hill U.S. stood pat at Falcons -4, action through the first 20 hours of wagering was overwhelmingly on the favorite, both in terms of tickets (75 percent) and money bet (84 percent). The total trended upward early, from 49.5 to 51 at the Westgate.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 45.5), Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET

Kansas City opened the dog but was moved to favorite status at multiple Las Vegas bet shops Sunday. The Westgate, in fact, hung Pittsburgh -2.5 and moved to K.C. +2, before coming back in the other direction.

Ben Roethlisberger was in a walking boot after the Steelers’ win over Miami on Sunday, a factor in the Westgate’s decision to adjust the line toward the Chiefs.

"When you’re in a walking boot, it’s not a good thing," Salmons said. "I’m sure he’ll play, but his mobility is going to be limited. He doesn’t run a lot, but (mobility) is an important part of his game."

Salmons added of the line movement at his shop, "I said I’d keep going up to Kansas City -2.5 until someone’s willing to bet back, just to see how high it can go, and I got someone to bet back at +2."

While the swing wasn’t as dramatic at the Wynn, Avello opened Pitt -1 and moved to Kansas City -1 in one flash.

"There’s no sense in stopping at a pick. The game can’t fall pick so why stop there, especially early on?," Avello said. "When you first put up a number and you start getting guys betting it, there’s no reason to ever be at pick. Get to a number and see where the action comes in during the week, and then maybe pick’s a good spot to settle at because you got good two-way (action), but not this early in the week."

While the total at the Wynn bounced between 45.5 and 46, several Vegas shops were dealing 46.5 on Sunday night.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 52), Sunday, 4:40 p.m. ET

The Wynn opened Dallas -3.5 and was bet up to -4, the more popular opening line in Las Vegas. Salmons said he can see the spread getting to 4.5 if its confirmed that Jordy Nelson won’t be able to go for Green Bay.

Wherever the number ends up, Salmons expects action on both sides of this NFC classic, and since it’s the last game of the weekend, that’s a perfect scenario for the books.

"You want a game (in that slot) where you don’t have one-sided action," Salmons said. "The Giants-Packers game fit that (Sunday). There was a ton of two-way betting on that game today. Usually on that last game, only bad things can happen for the book because all the good parlays lead through it and the teasers and things like that...By the time you get to the last game , if you have a one-sided game, you’re liability can be massive. But with Green Bay and Dallas, I think there’s going to be a ton of two-way action."

The Westgate moved the total from 51 to 51.5 and booked ‘over’ money at the higher price, and the number was as high as 52 in Vegas as early wagering commenced.

Based on Avello’s comments, the ‘over’ sentiment is understandable.

"I certainly don’t like the Green Bay pass defense. I didn’t like it (Sunday vs. the Giants)," he said. "But when you’ve got a guy like Rodgers, he just figures a way to get it done, he’s so good. He’s so fun to watch, he’s probably the best pure passer in games I’ve ever seen"

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wiseguys are advising that these NFL divisional round lines are going to move
By AAA SPORTS

Each week during the pro football season, Art Aronson of AAA Sports looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Game to bet now

Houston at New England (-15.5)

All playoff games are not created equal, and while the other three this weekend could reasonably go either way, there just seems to be no way that the Texans can hang in this one. Houston was not a good road team (2-6) this season, with one of the losses a 27-0 turtle job in New England in a game in which Tom Brady didn’t even play. New England has had two weeks of R&R time to get ready for this one, so it’s hard to see Houston making this one competitive. If Houston has any shot, it would be by pressuring Brady up with the gut and taking away the middle of the field (that worked for the Jets a few years back). Somehow the line which opened at 16 has melted down a half point as jubilant Houston fans celebrate the fact that Brock Osweiler did not spit the bit too much against the Raiders last weekend. It’s unlikely to move any more.

Game to wait on

Green Bay at Dallas (-4)

On occasion fans tend to overreact to wild card round victories, and that might explain the heavy money placed on the Packers in early wagering. But Green Bay was dominant in a 25-point victory over the Giants on Sunday, and Packers fans hope that the great play of Aaron Rodgers, and tons of momentum, are enough to carry them past the Cowboys in Dallas. When Dallas is good – and the Boys haven’t been this good in a while – it always draws heavy national money, so the betting figures to level off. With so much action expected on this premier game, cautious bettors might want to hang on a bit and see if they can catch a line that might move a half-point in their favor as kickoff nears.

Total to watch

Seattle at Atlanta (51)

The number on this one has already moved from 49 to 51, perhaps a sign that bettors are looking more closely at the Falcons and starting to realize that Atlanta’s offense is really good, especially at home where Atlanta averaged more than 36 in its final four regular season games. Matt Ryan’s rep has taken hits over the last several years as the Falcons couldn’t get any traction, but this season he’s the potential league MVP and has the best stats this side of Tom Brady. The Falcons won their last four games to earn the bye, and the key in each of those games was getting off to a fast start. If that happens again, the teams could easily blow past 51.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

How Patriots stack up against largest playoff spreads in NFL history
By ROB HANSEN

The New England Patriots are currently pegged as 15.5 or 16-point favorites (depending on your book) for their upcoming NFL divisional playoff home game against the Houston Texans. That is unquestionably a large point spread for an NFL football game, especially a playoff game, and raised questions about the largest spreads that have ever been seen for a playoff contest.

The line for this game opened Sunday night at Patriots -14.5 and within an hour of being released was bet up to -16. Since then some books have seen a bit of buyback on the Texans and have dropped to -15.5, however other sportsbooks, both online and in Las Vegas, have held at -16.

“If memory serves me correct, you’d have to go back all the way to when the NFC was dominating Super Bowls to find an opening line in that range, and that was back in the 1990s," recalled Peter Childs, head oddsmaker when discussing the opening NFL numbers with Patrick Everson.

"Bottom line, the Texans beat up on a third-string QB (Connor Cook) who was making his first career NFL start Saturday. It was an awful situation for the Raiders, and it showed. The Patriots are the highest power-rated team in the NFL, going up against the worst playoff team left. We figured we couldn’t make this line high enough."

Well, it appears that the memory of Mr. Childs is holding up pretty well.

Since 1985 (as far back as our database tracks point spreads), there have been only three NFL playoff games that closed with a bigger favorite than we are currently seeing with the Patriots over the Texans.

During the 1994-95 NFL playoffs, the San Francisco 49ers, lead by hall-of-fame quarterback Steve Young, were 17-point home faves over the visiting Chicago Bears in their divisional playoff game and the Niners were even bigger 18-point favorites in Super Bowl XXIX over the San Diego Chargers just three weeks later.

Not only did the 49ers win both of those football games, but they won big and covered the massive spreads (44-15 over the Bears and 49-26 over the Chargers).

The third NFL playoff team that closed as a higher favorite than the current Patriots -15.5/-16 were the Minnesota Vikings who were 16.5-point home favorites over the visiting Arizona Cardinals during the 1998-99 divisional playoff round. The Vikings also won, and covered the spread, with a convincing 41-21 victory to advance to the NFC Championship Game.

So, not only are the Patriots the biggest NFL playoff favorites that we've seen in the last 19 years, but all three games featuring bigger faves historically have seen the big chalk cover the number. Something to keep in mind when handicapping this weekend's games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFL - Division Round'

During all four games of wild-card weekend, the favorite cover and cover easily. The Seahawks thrashed Lions 26-6 covering a 9-point spot. Texans' took care of business knocking off Raiders 27-14 as -4 point home faves. Steelers dumped Dolphins 30-12 laying -11.5 at Heinz Field and Packers crushed Giants 38-13 at Lambeau Field as -5 point chalk.

Every matchup in the division round is a rematch from regular season. The Seahawks defeated Falcons 26-24 at CenturyLink Field in WK-6 but failed as -7 point chalk. The Patriots with rookie QB Jacoby Brissett thrashed Texans' 27-0 in Wk-3 as -1 point favorites at Gillette Stadium. The Steelers smacked Chiefs 43-14 at home in WK-4 as -3 point faves and 5 point underdog Cowboys stunned Packers a 30-16 at Lambeau Filed in Wk-6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'AFC Division Round'

New England Patriots the NFL's top team this season posting a 14-2 SU record, 13-3 mark against the betting line opened -17.0 point home favorites but the number has slipped a tick at most shops.

Hard to quibble with Brady and Company being heafty home chalk. The Patriots cruised down the stretch winning seven straight (6-1 ATS) winning by a margin of 16.1 points/game and history tells us the venue of this game provides Patriots with a solid opportunity to move onto the Conference Championship game. In the Bill Belichick era, Patriots have won 81.2% of their home games (125-29 SU, 86-63-5 ATS) including 15-3 SU, 9-8-1 ATS during season season. Breaking down numbers further, Patriots are on a 5-0 (4-1 ATS) streak in divisional rounds at Gillette Stadium including a 41-28 spanking of Texans' as -9.5 point chalk during the 2012-13 campaign.

It's hard to blame anyone who believes coach Bill Belichick's squad is worth the risk. New England thrashed Texans' 27-0 in week-three with rookie QB Jacoby Brissett and this time Tom Brady (28 TD's, 2 Int) is guiding the troops against Texans' with Osweiler (16 TD, 16 Int) under centre. Also, Patriots are on a sparkling 8-0 SU/ATS streak at home vs the AFC South including 2-0 ATS laying two TD's. One final betting nugget: Since 2000, Patriots are a perfect 23-0 SU laying -14.0 or more points with a 12-11 ATS record including 5-0 ATS last five in the situation.

Note: last the three teams laying -14.0 or more points at this stage of post season are 2-1 ATS. In the '98 division round, Vikings were -14.0 faves but lost 38-22 vs. San Francisco, then in the '95 division round the 49er's as -17.0 point chalk defeated Bears 44-15 and moved on to hammer Chargers 49-26 in the Super Bowl as -18.0 points faves.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'NFL Defensive Points-Against'

Defense rules in the NFL at this time of the season and of more interest it can also rule the point spread. Defenses perform more consistently than do offenses and should be afforded the greatest weight when handicapping pro football. To that end, the focus is defense and an oft overlook statistic 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' of real estate surrendered.

Why you wonder, well this particular stat measures how hard a team makes it's opponents work for points translating to the team with the best 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' of real estate is the team that makes the fewest mistakes, executes best and wins the battle of field position.

The above in mind let's take a deeper dive into stats to see who has the best chance off walking off with the 'W' but more importantly with the $$$ in the Seahawk-Falcon division round.

Seahawks have allowed an average 333.6 yards per game, 18.6 points giving the squad a YTD 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' ratio of 5.623. Meanwhile, Falcons come in surrendering 371.2 yards per game, 25.4 PPG for a 'Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards' rating of 6.881

The numbers suggest Seahawks are better defensively with fewer mistakes, better execution thus harder for opponents to score against them.

Now that we have a handle on what to expect defensively let's add each teams offensive yardage to the mix completing the model.

Seahawks have managed 381.4 yards per game, so assuming everything plays to form expect Seahawks to score 24-27 points (381.4/100=3.81 * Falcons DP100 Rating 6.881 = 24.7). Conversely, Falcons gains 415.8 yards per game and once again assuming both play to form Falcons should score 24-27 points (415.8/100=4.16 * Seahawks DP100 Rating 5.623 = 25.2).

Seattle currently +4.5 point underdogs makes Seahawks a good choice in a clash that could be a three-point game either way.

Remember, this is just one method of analysing teams and should be used in conjunction with other handicapping tools in predicting outcomes both straight-up and against the spread.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Playoff Rookie Quarterbacks
By Kevin Rogers

The NFL playoffs continue this weekend with the divisional round as four teams that rested last week will hit the field. One of those squads will feature a rookie quarterback making his playoff debut as Dak Prescott will look to lead Dallas past Green Bay on Sunday. Rookie signal-callers aren’t exactly the best bets in the NFL postseason as history tells us by owning a substandard record both straight-up and against the spread.

Prescott becomes the 16th rookie to quarterback a playoff game since 1983, but his predecessors have compiled an 8-15 SU and 11-12 ATS record. Six of these quarterbacks have won their playoff debut with the last one being Seattle’s Russell Wilson in the 2012 Wild Card round at Washington in a 24-14 victory as three-point favorites. Wilson joins a group alongside Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, Ben Roethlisberger, Shaun King, and T.J. Yates that picked up a postseason win in their first opportunity.

Plenty of successful quarterbacks (and one Hall-of-Famer) didn’t fare as well in their first playoff start as a rookie. Matt Ryan, Andy Dalton, Bernie Kosar, Jim Everett, Andrew Luck, and that Hall-of-Famer Dan Marino all lost in their postseason debuts in their first season. The most recent quarterback to start a playoff game was Oakland’s Connor Cook, who was thrust into that role after Derek Carr and Matt McGloin each were injured late in the season. Needless to say, Cook struggled by throwing three interceptions in a 27-14 setback at Houston.

Cook was making his first professional start against the Texans, which hurts the numbers for rookies, while former Raiders’ first round bust Todd Marinovich made his second career start in the 1991 Wild Card round loss to the Chiefs. Yates outdueled fellow rookie Dalton in the 2011 Wild Card round as Houston beat Cincinnati, 31-10 as four-point home favorites.

Not one rookie quarterback has ever reached the Super Bowl, but Flacco, Sanchez, Roethlisberger, and King all went to the conference championships in their first season. Flacco led Baltimore to a pair of road victories at Miami and Tennessee in 2008 before bowing out to Pittsburgh as six-point underdogs in the AFC Championship. The next season, Sanchez paced the Jets past the Bengals and Chargers in the first two rounds before losing to the Colts in the AFC title game.

Three active quarterbacks that started as rookies in the postseason are still alive in these playoffs (Ryan, Roethlisberger, Wilson). Out of that trio, Roethlisberger is the only quarterback that made his debut at home, beating the Jets in the divisional round before getting blown out by the Patriots in the AFC Championship in 2004. Bringing it back to Prescott, who faces Green Bay at home, rookie QB’s own a 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS at home, including a 1-3 ATS mark in the home favorite role.

From a totals perspective (not doubling up on Yates/Dalton and Wilson/Griffin matchups), the OVER has cashed in 10 of 19 opportunities. Only one game had a total of 50 or higher as Ryan and the Falcons lost to the Cardinals on the road in 2008 by a 30-24 count on a 52 total. The total on the Cowboys/Packers matchup is currently sitting at 52.

In his first start against the Packers back in Week 6 at Lambeau Field, Prescott threw three touchdown passes in a 30-16 victory over Green Bay. In seven of eight home games, Prescott didn’t throw an interception, while owning an 11/1 touchdown to interception ratio at AT&T Stadium. However, Dallas closed the season on a 1-5 ATS run, while Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers owns a solid 5-1 ATS mark as a road underdog in the postseason.

NFL Rookie QB's in Playoffs Since 1983
Quarterback Year/Opponent Score/Line ATS Result Total Result
Dan Marino, Mia 1983 vs. Seattle 20-27 (-8) L/L OVER 36.5
Jim Everett, LA 1986 vs. Washington 7-19 (+4.5) L/L -
Bernie Kosar, Cle 1986 vs. Miami 21-24 (+10) L/W -
Todd Marinovich, LA 1991 at Kansas City 6-10 (+5) L/W UNDER 35
Shaun King, TB 1999 vs. Washington 14-13 (-5.5) W/L UNDER 44.5
Shaun King, TB 1999 at St. Louis 6-11 (+14.5) L/W UNDER 44.5
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit 2004 vs. N.Y. Jets 20-17 (-9) W/L OVER 35
Ben Roethlisberger, Pit 2004 vs. New England 27-41 (+3) L/L OVER 35
Matt Ryan, Atl 2008 at Arizona 24-30 (+1.5) L/L OVER 52
Joe Flacco, Bal 2008 at Miami 27-9 (-4) W/W UNDER 38
Joe Flacco, Bal 2008 at Tennessee 13-10 (+3) W/W UNDER 34
Joe Flacco, Bal 2008 at Pittsburgh 14-23 (+6) L/L OVER 35
Mark Sanchez, NYJ 2009 at Cincinnati 24-14 (+2.5) W/W OVER 34
Mark Sanchez, NYJ 2009 at San Diego 17-14 (+9) W/W UNDER 43
Mark Sanchez, NYJ 2009 at Indianapolis 17-30 (+8) L/L OVER 40
Andy Dalton, Cin 2011 at Houston 10-31 (+4) L/L OVER 38
T.J. Yates, Hou 2011 vs. Cincinnati 31-10 (-4) W/W OVER 38
T.J. Yates, Hou 2011 at Baltimore 13-20 (+7.5) L/W UNDER 37
Robert Griffin III, Wsh 2012 vs. Seattle 14-24 (+3) L/L UNDER 44.5
Russell Wilson, Sea 2012 at Washington 24-14 (-3) W/W UNDER 44.5
Russell Wilson, Sea 2012 at Atlanta 28-30 (+3) L/W OVER 46.5
Andrew Luck, Ind 2012 at Baltimore 9-24 (+7) L/L UNDER 48
Connor Cook, Oak 2016 at Houston 14-27 (+4) L/L OVER 37.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AFC Divisional Notes

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017

Houston at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Patriots opened as 14 ½-point home favorites and the number jumped to as high as 16 at some books. Most shops are holding New England -15 ½ as of Tuesday. The total has dropped from an opener of 46 to 44 ½.

Houston Road Record: 2-6 SU, 2-6 ATS
New England Home Record: 6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams have met eight times since Houston came back into the league in 2002 and this series has been dominated by New England. The Patriots have gone 7-1 and that includes a run of five consecutive victories. New England has covered six of the seven wins and five have come by double digits, which includes its 27-0 victory over Houston in Week 3 this season. The Patriots have scored the Texans 150-49 in the four meetings at Foxboro.

Playoff Notes: Bill Belichick has gone 22-9 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 15-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS during this span while the ‘under’ is 10-8. In the last eight postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS with four of the victories come by double digits. Including last week’s win over Oakland, Houston is now 3-3 all-time in the playoffs and that includes a 0-2 record on the road. New England defeated Houston 41-28 in the 2012 playoffs as a 9 ½-point home favorite.

Total Notes: The ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the eight meetings between the pair but the ‘under’ has gone 2-0 in the most recent encounters. New England watched the ‘under’ go 10-6 this season, which includes a stalemate (4-4) from Gillette Stadium. The Texans saw the ‘under’ go 4-3-1 on the road behind an offense that only averaged 14.8 points per game as visitors. New England enters this game with the league’s best scoring defense with 15.6 PPG.

Sunday, Jan. 15, 2017

Pittsburgh at Kansas City (NBC, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Pittsburgh as a 2 ½-point road favorite but the number flip-flopped quickly. Most books have Kansas City now listed as a 1 ½-point home favorite as of Tuesday. The total in this game also dropped, going from 46 ½ to 44 ½.

Injuries: QB Ben Roethlisberger (ankle) has been upgraded to ‘probable.’

Pittsburgh Road Record: 5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS
Kansas City Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Steelers blasted the Chiefs 43-14 on Oct. 2 as 3 ½-point home favorites in wire-to-wire fashion. Pittsburgh led 36-0 behind five touchdown passes from QB Ben Roethlisberger and Kansas City added two meaningless scores in the fourth quarter. Including that outcome, Pittsburgh has now won four of its last five against Kansas City and the lone loss occurred last season when Landry Jones stepped in at QB for an injured Big Ben.

Playoff Notes: Pittsburgh improved to 12-6 in the playoffs with Big Ben as QB after last week’s Wild Card win over Miami. The Steelers have gone 6-3 away from home during this span and all three of the losses have been decided by seven points or less. Kansas City went 1-1 in the playoffs last season and the victory over Houston was the first for the franchise since 1994 and also the first for head coach Andy Reid with the Chiefs. Reid owns an all-time 11-11 record in the playoffs, which includes a 1-2 with KC. The last playoff win at Arrowhead Stadium took place in 1994 when coincidentally the Chiefs beat the Steelers 27-24 in overtime behind legendary QB Joe Montana. Since then, KC is 0-4 in its last six playoff games at home and 0-6 ATS in the previous six.

Total Notes: The Steelers have seen the ‘under’ 11-6 this season and that includes a 6-2 (75%) mark on the road. Kansas City has also been a very strong ‘under’ wager (10-6) and that includes a 6-2 lean to the low side at Arrowhead. Pittsburgh has scored 18 and 16 points in two playoff games on the road last season, both resulting in ‘under’ tickets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFC Divisional Notes

Saturday, Jan. 14, 2017

Seattle at Atlanta (FOX, 4:35 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: The Falcons opened as 3 ½-point home favorites last Saturday and the line has been pushed up to 4 ½ at most betting shops as of Tuesday. The total also jumped up, going from 48 ½ to 51 ½.

Seattle Road Record: 3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS
Atlanta Home Record: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams met in Week 6 and Seattle rallied for a 26-24 win over Atlanta from CenturyLink Field as the Seahawks outscored the Falcons 9-0 in the final five minutes of the game. Atlanta had a chance to earn the win but they couldn’t move the football late and didn’t get help from the officials, who missed a questionable pass interference call on Seattle. Despite not winning, the Falcons managed to cover as seven-point road underdogs. The previous meeting between these teams came in the 2013 regular season as Seattle earned a 33-10 road win at Atlanta as a three-point road favorite.

Playoff Notes: Atlanta defeated Seattle 30-28 in the 2012 playoffs, which was the second career playoff start for Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson. The Falcons built a 20-0 lead at halftime and were up 27-7 entering the final quarter but the ‘Hawks scored 21 unanswered points. Atlanta regained its composure and managed to win on a late field goal.

Including that loss, Seattle has gone 8-3 in the playoffs with Wilson as its starting quarterback which includes a 3-3 mark away from home. Coincidentally, QB Matt Ryan’s only playoff win came in the aforementioned victory over Seattle. The signal caller is 1-4 all-time in the postseason and that includes a 1-2 mark at the Georgia Dome.

Total Notes: The Falcons were the best ‘over’ bet in the NFL season, going 13-2-1 and that includes a perfect 8-0 mark at home. Atlanta’s averaged 33.8 points per games and the offense was very balanced, ranked third in passing (295.3 YPG) and fifth in rushing (120.5 YPG). Including last week’s result in the Wild Card round versus Detroit, the Seahawks have seen the ‘ under’ go 9-8 and 4-4 on the road. The Seahawks have made three trips to the East Coast and they ‘over’ went 2-1 in those games. Seattle has seen the ‘over’ go 6-5 in 11 playoff games with Wilson and the ‘over’ is 4-2 in road and neutral games. Ryan and the Falcons are 4-1 to the ‘over’ in his five career playoff starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Divisional Round Playoff lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL Divisional Round schedule and tells you why these postseason lines are making him go “hmmm…”

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 51)

These two played each other in mid-October where Seattle won at home by a 26-24 score alongside a 7-point spread. Looking at the game this week in Atlanta, the Falcons are enjoying a solid 4.5-point spread which may not move all that much from now until game time.

Personally, I made around a field goal, either -2.5 or -3 (EVEN). To me, the Seattle win against Detroit was more than just going through the motions. I gave the Seahawks some props for ironing out some issues and keeping the machine rolling. Sometimes it does a team well to keep the routine going and gain momentum heading into the second round.

Not every team reacts as well to a week off at this point than others. They say every player has some aches and pains at this juncture and getting a rest at this point of the season can do a body well. But when timing and routine are so important to players and teams, this downtime can be disruptive, particularly at the beginning of the game.

If this line moves anywhere, it will move down, closer to the underdogs. My advice would be to get the Seattle bets in now for its best value and if you’re looking for the best number with Atlanta, wait until game day when this gets closer to my opener.


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-16, 45)

I find it fascinating that most bettors and bookmakers make the 17-point difference a key number. I find it particularly galling that bookmakers move a line this high with half-point moves. Normally, this is an easy game to decipher as to who is feeding the machine and at what levels. The masses will back the Patriots at -16 or -16.5 while the wiseguys will hit the +17 if it gets there. However, I think the wiseguys may have to throw in the towel with their “value” and may support New England no matter what.

Personally, I think there are more elements that may come to fruition that will keep this game closer than expected but I don’t think the line is going to move very much from where it is now. I agreed with the opening offshore number. I thought the offshore -14.5 was pretty good and was amazed as to how quickly this jumped to -16.

I do know with four games going to the favorites this past weekend, that has left an indelible point in bettors’ minds for the games this week (three of the four games have pretty much been one-way action) but Patriot backers are asking a lot to keep this kind of distance right out of the chute in their first game of the playoffs.

This one is more of a coin toss where a first touchdown score by Houston will go a long way into this game.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5)

I agreed with the offshores that Pittsburgh should be some kind of a favorite. And to my thinking, it will be by kickoff. The -1 on the Steelers was wiped clean and posted on Kansas City almost immediately after everyone saw Ben Roethlisberger’s foot in a walking boot.

The line hit -2.5 on the Chiefs momentarily but has since dropped to -1.5 by midweek as the Pittsburgh QB has stated he’ll be fine to play. Rarely does a score get affected by a 1.5-point spread when the line is actually 1.5, but your mind gets a little snarled after you look at it for a while.

You’re basically asking yourself to just pick the winner (Like last week. Wasn’t so tough was it?). I was agreeing with most football aficionados a few weeks ago that the best matchup for the AFC Championship game would be the Steelers and the Patriots and I stand by that. Don’t look at this number other than determining which is the better team? By all accounts, on a neutral field, the Steelers are. In Pittsburgh, the Steelers are. And in KC, they will likely still be come Sunday.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 52)

It’s unfortunate that Green Bay receiver Jordy Nelson will not play. That certainly has to be in the line purely by perception that for this one game, he’s better than the backups that will be in his place. But by how much?

It’s tough to gauge the value of a wide receiver for one game. In actuality, the options did a good job. Also, it makes for a blurred defensive scheme now that you have to focus on a number of receivers rather than one key player. I made this game -3.5 Dallas on the basis of what Green Bay has been doing lately and what Dallas has done all year.

At the -4 level, you’re admitting that these teams are basically even on a neutral field. The line will close around -4. I don’t see this surging towards the Packers on game day as there’s just too much money that backs the ‘Boys every week. This will never make -5 as wiseguys will be all over Green Bay at the higher number.

With a total of 52 points, oddsmakers are expecting more touchdowns than field goals so between the difference of three or four, there’s a smaller chance that comes into play. But since we know how a number at three or four affects the bettors’ minds, this number is as good as it gets for this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Can bettors profit from home teams' history of success on NFL Divisional weekend?
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Question: What have the last five years of Divisional Round action taught us about the NFL playoffs?

Answer: Outside of utter domination on behalf of the home teams, very little.

Since the 2011 regular season, home teams have gone a ridiculous 16-4 during the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs. But we’re not necessarily interested in how sports teams perform from a straight-up perspective. What we want to know is how and when we can make some money from an against-the-spread angle.

And from an ATS perspective, home teams are just 9-10-1 ATS in the Divisional Round of the postseason. To further muddy the water, the total doesn’t offer much of an edge either in the way of recent trends, as the over is a slightly profitable 12-8 during the Divisional Round since 2011.

So how do we plan on making some money when it comes to this weekend’s NFL card?

Well, if you’re interested in sharp action, I’d pay very close attention to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Kansas City is coming off a bye week and went 6-2 at Arrowhead Stadium during the regular season. Pass rusher Justin Houston is back, quarterback Alex Smith and head coach Andy Reid possess ample playoff experience and the Chiefs ranked first in the NFL this season in turnover differential at +16.

And, yet, Kansas City is laying only one point?

Something smells awfully fishy here.

CURRENT SUPER BOWL LI ODDS

*Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

New England Patriots: 7/5
Dallas Cowboys: 9/2
Atlanta Falcons: 7/1
Pittsburgh Steelers: 8/1
Kansas City Chiefs: 8/1
Green Bay Packers: 10/1
Seattle Seahawks: 10/1
Houston Texans: 60/1

SHARP MONEY VS. PUBLIC MONEY: BEHIND THE COUNTER

In an effort to gain a better understanding of how the betting market is currently approaching Divisional Round weekend, We reached out to Nick Bogdanovich, who serves as the Director of Trading for William Hill U.S.

Which positions have the sharp bettors established: “Of the eight possible sides offered for the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, we’ve seen sharp action on the Atlanta Falcons at -4 [now -5] and, believe it or not, the Houston Texans at +16 [now +15].”

Which positions have the public bettors established: “The public is on the same side as the sharps as it pertains to the Atlanta-Seattle matchup, but that action has come in on Atlanta -4.5 instead of Atlanta -4. In addition, the public is siding with New England at a price of -15 and the Dallas Cowboys at a price of -4.”

In your opinion, is there any value left on Super Bowl futures: “At the current prices being offered in the betting market, I’d have to say no.”

Where is your biggest exposure in regards to Super Bowl futures: “We’re actually in a very good position as it pertains to Super Bowl futures. At the moment, we wouldn’t experience any significant hits on any of the eight possible Super Bowl champions. Our worst-case scenario would be a Patriots victory on February 5, but even then we would come away slightly profitable.”

In your opinion, who is the most dangerous non-bye week team: “That would be the Pittsburgh Steelers.”

DIVISIONAL ROUND RAMBLINGS FROM A MADMAN

Seattle Seahawks: Can Seattle dictate the game flow by establishing a consistently effective rushing attack that keeps Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense off the field for long periods of time? In the seven games that the Seahawks failed to win this season, the Seattle offense rushed for 78 or fewer yards five times. The Falcons ranked 17th in the NFL in defending the run during the regular season (104.5 yds/gm), but if the Seahawks fail to get Thomas Rawls going on Saturday, the club could be in for a long afternoon.

Atlanta Falcons: Quarterback Matt Ryan has won exactly one playoff game in nine seasons in the National Football League. Head coach Dan Quinn has never coached in the postseason. Atlanta had no problems slicing and dicing the NFL during the regular season, but January is a different beast entirely. Time to put up or shut up.

Houston Texans: Houston’s last three trips to New England have produced the following results: A 42-14 blowout defeat in December of 2012, a 41-28 loss in January of 2013 and a 27-0 shellacking engineered by third-string signal-caller Jacoby Brissett back in September. Brock Osweiler at home against a lifeless Raiders team in the Wild Card round is one thing. Brock Osweiler at Gillette Stadium against Tom Brady is a vastly different story.

New England Patriots: Bill Belichick’s band of soldiers covered the number in 13 of 16 contests during the regular season, are 24-9-2 against the spread over their last 35 home games and 4-1 ATS over their last five matchups played during the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Meanwhile, Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler went 2-6 on the road this season while completing just 56 percent of his passes en route to a shoddy passer rating of 72.1.

Pittsburgh Steelers: The fact that Pittsburgh isn’t getting at least three full points in this game is mind-boggling to me. Kansas City is rested, balanced and in possession of one of the league’s nastiest home field advantages. In my honest opinion, this is the most out-of-whack point spread of the postseason.

Kansas City Chiefs: I’ve long maintained that Andy Reid is one of the best Monday-through-Saturday coaches in the National Football League. I also firmly believe that Reid does a tremendous job of navigating his way through the regular season. But this is no longer the regular season and Reid will have to overcome the ghosts of playoffs past if he wants to alter his legacy’s current trajectory. Keep an eye on how the Kansas City head coach manages his challenges and timeouts early in each half. Reid’s game and clock management skills are some of the worst in the business.

Green Bay Packers: Imagine where this franchise would be without the transcendent quarterback that is Aaron Rodgers? Side note: I’ve been on the wrong end of all three Hail Mary passes that Rodgers has completed over the last two years. It stung like hell against Detroit. It almost made me cry against Arizona. It was expected against New York.

Dallas Cowboys: See below.

Number of years Jason Garrett has coached the Cowboys: 7
Number of games Jason Garrett has coached in the postseason: 2
Number of wins Jason Garrett has registered in the postseason: 1

It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if the Dallas Cowboys found a way to flush their magical season down the toilet in just sixty minutes of game action on Sunday.

DIVISIONAL ROUND PROP BET OF THE WEEK

Prop: Total passing completions by the Houston Texans: 19.5 (-110 both ways)

Pick: OVER 19.5 total passing completions

Why: New England is currently listed as a 15-point favorite over the Houston Texans for Saturday night’s AFC Divisional Round showdown. So it’s reasonable to assume that the Texans will be playing from behind for a good portion of the evening. And when football teams find themselves playing from behind, they lose the luxury of running the football.

In 14 starts this season, Houston quarterback Brock Osweiler completed 20 or more passes nine times. In addition, the New England Patriots defense surrendered an average of 23.0 completions per game during the 2016 regular season. Take those statistics and combine them with the following:

A. Houston will be playing from behind, so they will be throwing the football
B. Osweiler loves to check it down, which means high percentage completions

…and you have the perfect recipe for a quarterback who will complete more than 19.5 passes Saturday evening in Massachusetts.

TREND OF THE WEEK

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is 19-2 when coming off a bye week in either the regular season or playoffs.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Divisional Playoffs edition
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule, and the playoffs are no different.

Here are the biggest betting mismatches for the NFL Divisional Playoffs weekend:

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 51.5)

Seahawks' road scoring woes vs. Falcons' fantastic home-field edge

Oddsmakers are expecting the NFC divisional-round game between the Seahawks and Falcons to be a bit of a barn-burner - and that suits the Falcons just fine, as they rode one of the league's top offenses to the NFC South crown and a well-deserved first-round bye. The Seahawks still have an defense capable of disrupting even the most experienced quarterbacks, but the team's struggles producing points on the road could be its undoing this weekend.

The Seahawks didn't exactly waltz into the postseason, lacking the offensive punch they showed in the second half of last season. Seattle ranked a dismal 25th in red-zone touchdown success rate at 48.33 percent - and that mark plummets on the road, where the Seahawks converted just 34.8 percent of their red-zone visits into six points. Things were particularly messy in the second half of road games; only the Chicago Bears managed fewer second-half road points than the Seahawks' 5.9.

There won't be any room for error against the host Falcons, who turned Mercedes-Benz Stadium into their very own playground. Atlanta averaged an absurd 35 points per game at home this season, four more than the next-closest team; their 61.9-percent TD success rate in the red zone ranked 10th in the league, and only two teams had a better third-down conversation rate at home than the Falcons (48.0 percent). Atlanta is in good position to take home-field advantage one step further this weekend.


Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-15, 44.5)

Texans' recent third-down struggles vs. Patriots' long-drive proficiency

The Texans will need plenty to go right if they hope to take down the mighty Patriots and advance to the AFC Championship - and oddsmakers aren't confident it will happen. Houston finds itself on the wrong end of one of the biggest spreads in NFL playoff history - and overcoming such long odds starts with making dramatic improvements in third-down conversion, where New England owns one of the biggest advantages between the teams coming into the weekend.

The Houston offense struggled mightily over the course of the season, averaging a paltry 1.6 touchdowns per game. There are a handful of reasons for that, but one of the biggest was the Texans' inability to extend drives behind quarterback Brock Osweiler and backup Tom Savage. Houston ranked 24th in third-down conversion rate (36.7 percent) and has labored even more over its previous three games, converting at a 25-percent rate.

That simply won't fly against a New England juggernaut that looks every bit like a Super Bowl contender. Led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady, the Patriots converted nearly 46 percent of their third-down situations into first downs or touchdowns - the fourth-best rate in the league. That number jumps to almost 49 percent over the previous three games - proof that an already-huge chasm between these two teams is even bigger going into Saturday night's tilt.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5, 44.5)

Steelers' underrated O-line vs. Chiefs' struggling pass rush

Ask anyone why the Steelers are among the final eight teams in the Super Bowl race, and they'll likely bring up the star triumvirate of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown. But there's much more to Pittsburgh's success than its three big-name skill players - starting with a robust offensive line that has earned rave reviews around the league, and matches up well against an underwhelming Kansas City pass rush.

Roethlisberger has been blessed with one of the top O-lines in the NFL, at least from a Pro Football Focus perspective. All five of the base starters boast PFF grades above 80, led by LG Ramon Foster (87.1), RT Marcus Gilbert (87.1) and RG David DeCastro (86.5). They helped keep their star QB upright, as Roethlisberger was sacked just 17 times during the regular season; of all QBs to throw at least 500 passes, only Oakland's Derek Carr (16) was sacked less often.

Oddsmakers expect the Chiefs' defense to give Roethlisberger a hard time, but there's evidence to suggest that may be a tall task. the Kansas City base defense features just two players with PFF ratings north of 80, while three sit below 71 - highlighted by LE Rakeem Nunez-Roches (43.2). The Chiefs' 28 sacks ranked 28th in the NFL, and even with Justin Houston back in action, Kansas City might be hard-pressed to put enough heat on Roethlisberger to pressure him into mistakes.


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 52)

Packers' run-game deficiency vs. Cowboys' lock-down rush D

Storylines abound as the streaking Packers face the upstart Cowboys with a berth in the NFC Championship game on the line. Both teams will be focused on stopping the opposition passing game; Dallas is tasked with subduing red-hot Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers, while the Packers will need to figure out how to stymie rookie Cowboys signal caller Dak Prescott. But this one might be decided on the ground - and that's where the Cowboys have a sizeable advantage.

The Packers have had to get creative in the backfield with Eddie Lacy out for the season, eventually settling on wide receiver Ty Montgomery as their primary rushing option. But Green Bay has been relying less on the running game of late, averaging a paltry 89.3 rushing yards over its previous three contests. The Packers averaged just 104.5 yards per game on the ground - good for 21st in the NFL - while Montgomery led the team with a modest 457 rushing yards.

Much of the attention in Big D falls on the offensive rushing game - led by electrifying rookie Ezekiel Elliott - but the Cowboys' run defense was just as impressive. Dallas surrendered a league-low 83.5 yards per game on the ground, and was one of four teams to limit to foes to single-digit rushing touchdowns in the regular season. With the Cowboys outrushing opponents by nearly 80 yards per game at home, Dallas is well-positioned to dominate the ground game Sunday.