Wunderdog
Game: N. Carolina at Connecticut (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Connecticut +4.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Last year the Tar Heels destroyed a then-ranked Huskies’ squad to the tune of 38-12. The game turned as the Huskies played an unusually mistake-prone game, with three INTs and the Heels blocked three punts, which turned the game completely around. When you look at the numbers from that game without knowing the final score you'd think UConn won. The Huskies outgained the Heels 378-263, but the special teams gaffs along with the three INTs changed the entire complexion of the game. Now the Huskies look for revenge at home where they have gone 11-2 over the last two years. When posted as a home dog, they have gone 12-6 ATS. Butch Davis has done a good job at Carolina, but when taking to the road as a favorite, his squad is 0-2-1 ATS, still seeking their first cover. The Huskies have reigned supreme in out-of-conference games going 30-14-1 ATS in their last 45, and are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four as a home dog of 3.5-10 points. They are also 20-8 ATS returning home from a road game and 9-2 ATS in the first two weeks of the season under head coach Randy Edsall. I'll go with the Huskies in this one. Game: Syracuse at Penn State (Saturday 9/12 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Penn State -28.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
At 80-years-old, Joe Pa was said to have seen the game pass him by. Looking at an 11-1 regular season a year ago and a team returning capable of doing the same, it looks like business as usual at Penn State. The Nittany Lions ran to a 31-0 halftime lead a week ago vs. Akron, and held the Zips to just eight first downs. The defense was excellent, allowing just 28 rushing yards on 30 carries. This one will see even more intensity, as these schools are in close proximity to each other and battle each other off the field for recruits. I'd expect starters to log more minutes here to get ready for a full game, and the intensity level showing no let up. Last year, Penn State was 27.5 point favorites on the road and won by 42 in week three. Not much has changed in the overall strength and weaknesses of these teams, and the line is similar to last year, but they are at home. Coach Paterno’s teams are not afraid to roll it up as heavy chalk coming in with a 9-3 ATS mark as a favorite of -17.5 plus in their last 12 such games.Penn State is 80-28 ATS over the past 17 years when they score 28+ points in a game and they will reach that figure here. Penn State can name the score here, and I think Joe Pa names this one big. I’m on Penn State in a blowout. Game: Iowa at Iowa State (Saturday 9/12 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Iowa State +6 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
This is one of those intrastate rivalries in which you can often through out the stats. You don't have to look at the relative strength or weaknesses of these teams when they meet. All you have to do is look at the history between these two. One thing for sure, Iowa State is going to show up here and play their best game of the season. Iowa looked weak against Northern Iowa last week, a school they should have dominated in all aspects of the game. But in the end they needed to block two late field goal attempts just to escape with a 17-16 win. In the last 11 games in this series, Iowa State is 10-1 ATS in this game, has won straight up as a dog of 17.5 points, 9.5, 3, 5 and 28 points! That is five underdog outright wins to an average line of +12.6. They have outperformed the line in the 10 wins by 14 points per game, or two TDs. The Hawkeyes are also just 1-4 ATS in their last five road openers. Iowa State is 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games coming off a win. This one has too much history of Goliath getting slayed to not make this one a play. I will go with Iowa State in this one. Game: Kansas State at U L Lafayette (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on U L Lafayette +7 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
You really have to question this Kansas State team. They scheduled a non-FBS team at home (UMass) and had to hold on to squeak out a 21-17 win. Now they must take to the road where they are 4-17 SU in their last 21 games and lay a touchdown. Last year, Kansas State had the Cajuns at home and were outgained and torched for over 500 yards as a three TD+ favorite. Despite laying 21, they won that game by just 8 points and it was withing 5 in the fourth quarter. The Cajuns return 17 starters and get this one at home where they piled up 42 points and over 500 yards last week. Yes, the competition wasn't as great, but neither was it for Kansas State. The Wildcats have been more like “Mildcats” as a road chalk as they are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have more than held their own when facing a Big-12 school as they are 8-3 ATS against the BCS power conference. I like the dog here. Game: Bowling Green at Missouri (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Missouri -19.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
Last week we cashed with Missouri as they won outright as a 7-point dog to Illinois. I am on them again this week. Last week no one believed that the formerly high-octane offense of Missouri could still win without Chase Daniels and Jeremy Maclin. They proved the doubters wrong as they went into Illinois and hung 37 on a stout defense on the road. The defense held a potent Illini offensive attack lead by Juice Williams to just 9 points. Opponents beware... the demise of the Tigers is unfounded! Bowling Green looked premier taking to the road in similar fashion - a TD dog and rolling over Troy State. That's the good news. The bad news is that last year, three teams won on the road as a dog, and came back the following week on the road, were torched 120-17 going 0-3 SU and ATS. Missouri has been abusing out-of-conference opponents to the tune of a 9-1 ATS mark in their last 10 such games. Bowling Green might be lavishing in a surprising road win, but that feeling won't last long. Missouri gets the call here, hanging 50+ on the Falcons and winning big. Game: Central Florida at Southern Miss (Saturday 9/12 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Southern Miss -14.5 (-110) (risk 3 to win 2.7)
Last year, Central Florida had one of the worst offenses in college football. This season things don't look much brighter as they managed to gain just 282 yards against Samford last week. That certainly doesn't bode well for them here as Southern Miss was putting together a high-octane display of offense in their opener, good for 631 yards. Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora has put up a 26.6 points per game win margin when the Golden Eagles win as the offense leads the way. And as the offense gets better, the covers keep coming as the Golden Eagles covered their final five a year ago, including their Bowl win as an underdog. When you play at home against Samford, get out-gained and have to come from behind to win, it doesn't bode well heading on the road against a high-octane offense, especially when you've proven that you can't move the ball. Under George O'Learly, UCF is 0-8 ATS on the road following a non-conference game. I'm going with Southern Miss in this one. Game: Tulsa at New Mexico (Saturday 9/12 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New Mexico +17.5 (-110) (risk 4 to win 3.6)
The Golden Hurricane dispatched lowly Tulane in their opener 37-13. That has put a bump in this line. Heading on the road is one thing, but when you look at the schedule and see Oklahoma coming up for Tulsa next week, you can be sure they will have part of their minds on that game. That can result in a lack of emotion in this one. After all, they trounced the Lobos 56-14 a year ago, so how will this one get their attention, especially with the Sooners on deck? The Golden Hurricane haven't fared well on grass as they have turned in a 3-8 ATS mark recently. They are 1-10 ATS in their last eleven road games after allowing 325+ yards the game before. Under head coach Todd Graham, they are 1-8 ATS on the road after scoring 37+ points the week before. The Lobos have been getting it done after a straight-up loss by following it up with a 12-5 ATS mark. They have also covered each of their last four at home. All eyes on Oklahoma here on the Tulsa sidelines opens the door for a Lobo’s cover to an inflated spread. I'm backing New Mexico here.
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