saku's MMA World Victory Road 2009

[saku]

#19

Aaron Riley vs Shane Nelson
Pick:Aaron Riley
Stake:10/10
odds:1.49
Book: Pinnacle/Sportsbook/bodog

UFC 96

There is a large skill and experience difference between those two fighters. And I see here value. Nelson might be better known because he was TUF 8 show fighter. But he don't even belong to the UFC. I'm sure that there are lot of TUF noobs betting on him. If he wouldn't be a TUF 8 cast, odds would be like 1.25 - 1.30 against him. Riley is a veteran, with very solid stand up and good grappling. If nothing unexpected happen (injury or sth) he should easly win. GL!

 

[kidman232]

damn the match didnt last long, first time all day im happy my book is down, i wasnt able to bet. tough break

 

[Ichiban]

Did this event already start?

I still have odds for this fight available...

 

[kidman232]

nelson knocked out riley in the first round via tko strikes

 

[Ichiban]

can you watch this online anywhere? you have results on any other fights?

 

[kidman232]

no its all dark, brandon vera is fighting now in the 2nd fight, main card doesnt start for a bit. Sorry about the thread hijack.

 

[saku]

Nick Diaz @ +170
5/10

 

[saku]

Nick Diaz @ +170
5/10

Pick is won. Diaz completly dominated his opponent. +8.5 u

 

[saku]

I needed that win.

 

[saku]

V.Magalhaes v E.Marshall
Pick: E.Marshall
stake: 10/10
odds: +200
book: William Hill

Analysis tomorrow.

 

[saku]

V.Magalhaes v E.Marshall

First look at the odds:

William Hill has Marshall at +200 and 5Dimes has Magalhaes at +100. We have nice surebet!

#1

Pick: Marshall
odds: +200
stake: 10/10

#2

Pick: Magalhaes
odds: +100
stake 10/10

I was going to post this pick when Marshall(mma rec 6-1-0) was 1.87. I think that he will be victorious tonight. They both are very talented grapplers and know their game. They had grappling match not so long time ago (Magalhaes won on points) They were also together in the Ultimate Fighter cast. I think that Marshalls submission game will be enough to wont be submited by Magalhaes. Marshall is better striker and very bad matchup for Magalhaes who is doing well with fighters without good submission game.

GL!

 

[saku]

#1

Pick: Marshall
odds: +200
stake: 10/10

#2

Pick: Magalhaes
odds: +100
stake 10/10

+ 10 u

 

[saku]

BELLATOR FIGHTING CHAMPIONSHIP 5 - May 1st

Dan Evensen -105
Raoul Romero -125
Pick: Raoul Romero
Stake: 10/10
book: betcris

Lot of value in this pick in my opinion. Romero should be bigger favourite but Evensen comes straight from UFC(they took him because they had big guys deficiency in HW). But without succes in this organization - two loses with not that really good fighters.

I can't imagine Romero losing with Evensen. He's stronger, faster and have more skills. Four time national Muay Thai champion and K-1 veteran, BJJ black belt.

Good Luck

 

[diktsohg]

:toast:

Romero. I agree.

 

[saku]

Last pick is lost.

 

[saku]

KSW 11 today in Warsaw

#1
Mamed Khalidov 1.72
Daniel Acacio 2.00
Pick: Mamed Khalidov 1.72
stake: 10/10
Mamed is stronger and more wellrounded. His great submission game should be enough to avoid Daniels submission attempts and better standup should give him TKO or decision Victory.
+ home crowd.
And they allready have revenge in Brazil.

#2
Vitor Nobrega 1.15
Lukasz Christ 5.00
Pick: Lukasz Christ 5.00
stake 2/10
I have chosen Nobrega for the winner in my predictions. But since I know that Nobrega has just arrived to Poland I change my mind. GL
book: betsson


gl
http://record.affiliatelounge.com/_KNZRLYE5TLtoofBpZ-qTpmNd7ZgqdRLk/1​

 

[saku]

#1

Mamed Khalidov 1.72
Daniel Acacio 2.00
Pick: Mamed Khalidov 1.72
stake: 10/10


#2
Vitor Nobrega 1.15
Lukasz Christ 5.00
Pick: Lukasz Christ 5.00
stake 2/10

​

Preety good.

Mameds fight - click

 

[saku]

#1

Soszynski K vs Gusmao A

Pick: Gusmao A

stake: 5/10

odds: 2.00

book: Skybet

#2

Kaplan D vs Roop G

Pick: Roop G

stake: 10/10

odds: 1.73

book: Skybet


Posting from my job so analysis later in this topic and at www.mma4life.pl

 

[saku]

#1

Soszynski K vs Gusmao A

Pick: Gusmao A

stake: 5/10

odds: 2.00

book: Skybet

#2

Kaplan D vs Roop G

Pick: Roop G

stake: 10/10

odds: 1.73

book: Skybet

+2.23 u

Event without bigger history for me. Waiting for DREAM

 

[saku]

Finally I don't have to strong arguments to put some cash but here are my 3 fantasy bets to test my skills:

Bob Sapp at -200
10/10

Jan Nortje +240
2/10

Mark Hunt +185
5/10

As you can se I hope that weigh differences will play huge factor tonight

-Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza (83.7 kg)(184.5 lbs) vs. Jason “Mayhem” Miller (84 kg) (185.1 lbs)
-Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto (62.2 kg) (137.1 lbs) vs. Joe Warren (62.6 kg) (138 lbs)
-Masakazu Imanari (63 kg)(138.8 lbs) vs. Bibiano Fernandes (62.8 kg)(138.4 lbs)
-Yoshiro Maeda (62.8 kg)(138.4 lbs) vs. Hiroyuki Takaya (63 kg) (138.8 lbs)
-Abel Cullum (62.7 kg) (138.2 lbs) vs. Hideo Tokoro (62.7 kg)(138.2 lbs)
-Tatsuya Kawajiri (70 kg) (154 lbs) vs. Gesias "J.Z." Calvancante (70 kg)(154 lbs)
-Gegard Mousasi (99 kg)(218 lbs) vs. Mark Hunt (130 kg)(286.6 lbs)
-Jan “The Giant” Nortje (160 kg) (352.7 lbs) vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (102 kg)(224.8 lbs)
-Hong Man Choi (150 kg)(330.6 lbs) vs. Jose Canseco (115 kg)(253.5 lbs)
-Ikuhisa Minowa (89 kg)(196.2 lbs) vs. Bob Sapp (145 kg)(319.6 lbs)