Ridin' That Train

Prof_Factor · Oct 12, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$65.90
- 8.00
+ 6.20
======
$64.10

Today's plays (10-11-2015): $2wp

PRX r#3
7 DEVIL'S PURGE**** (10-1) ........ 3rd @ 7-2

WO r#6
3 COLTIMUS PRIME** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 16-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$64.10
- 8.00
======
$56.10

Yesterday's plays were the worst picks ever posted for the Train.

Today's plays (10-12-2015): $2wp

TDN r#4
8 BLUE CHERRIES SPIN**** (6-1)

TDN r#5
6 BONITA'S GIFT**** (5-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 12, 2015

Go Prof go.

Prof_Factor · Oct 13, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$64.10
- 8.00
======
$56.10

Yesterday's plays were the worst picks ever posted for the Train.

Today's plays (10-12-2015): $2wp

TDN r#4
8 BLUE CHERRIES SPIN**** (6-1) ........ 1st $3.60 $2.60

TDN r#5
6 BONITA'S GIFT**** (5-1) ........ 1st $4.60 $3.20

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$56.10
- 8.00
+14.00
======
$62.10

Hitting both plays didn't recover what we lost on the ridiculous plays the day before.

Today's plays (10-13-2015): $2wp

IND r#2
4 CHAMPAGNE MOOD*** (20-1)

IND r#6
4 CHARACTER WITNESS**** (7-2)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 13, 2015

Good luck Prof.

Prof_Factor · Oct 13, 2015

Thanks Lt

GreenThumbRacing · Oct 13, 2015

Fire up the train

Prof_Factor · Oct 14, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$56.10
- 8.00
+14.00
======
$62.10

Hitting both plays didn't recover what we lost on the ridiculous plays the day before.

Today's plays (10-13-2015): $2wp

IND r#2
4 CHAMPAGNE MOOD*** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 11-1

IND r#6
4 CHARACTER WITNESS**** (7-2) ........ 3rd @ 2-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$62.10
- 8.00
======
$54.10

There won't be any plays posted for Thursday.

Today's plays (10-14-2015): $2wp

RP r#6
11 STEEL LOCKET*** (15-1)

RP r#7
8 FCMIRACULOUSCODE** (12-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 14, 2015

Good luck Prof

Prof_Factor · Oct 18, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$62.10
- 8.00
======
$54.10

There won't be any plays posted Thursday.

Today's plays (10-14-2015): $2wp

RP r#6
11 STEEL LOCKET*** (15-1) ........ off the board @ 17-1

RP r#7
8 FCMIRACULOUSCODE** (12-1) ........ off the board @ 21-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$54.10
- 8.00
======
$46.10

Given the condition of the Train's bank, we should be looking for top contenders but I'm opting for a couple more value trys.
Might be in the hole after today.

Today's plays (10-18-2015): $2wp

WO r#5
5 HEY BEAR*** (8-1)

WO r#10
7 TURN TO REALITY*** (10-1)

Good luck to all.

Prof Tidbit: For those that make their own numbers ... 10-17-2015 PEN race7 no final time, using 1:47.23. 10-17-2015 IND race5 incorrect times, using 1:42.00 final.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Prof_Factor · Oct 19, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$54.10
- 8.00
======
$46.10

Given the condition of the Train's bank, we should be looking for top contenders but I'm opting for a couple more value trys.
Might be in the hole after today.

Today's plays (10-18-2015): $2wp

WO r#5
5 HEY BEAR*** (8-1) ........ off the board @ 12-1

WO r#10
7 TURN TO REALITY*** (10-1) ........ 2nd $7.60 @ 6-1

Good luck to all.

Prof Tidbit: For those that make their own numbers ... 10-17-2015 PEN race7 no final time, using 1:47.23. 10-17-2015 IND race5 incorrect times, using 1:42.00 final.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$46.10
- 8.00
+ 7.60
======
$45.70

HEY BEAR was ridden into defeat by moron Moran. Won't be on the Train ever again!

Today's plays (10-19-2015): $2wp

PRX r#5
3 LINDA'S LAST**** (5-1)

PRX r#7
6 RAGING CHAMPION**** (6-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Prof_Factor · Oct 19, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$46.10
- 8.00
+ 7.60
======
$45.70

HEY BEAR was ridden into defeat by moron Moran. Won't be on the Train ever again!

Today's plays (10-19-2015): $2wp

PRX r#5
3 LINDA'S LAST**** (5-1) ........ 1st $5.80 $3.40

PRX r#7
6 RAGING CHAMPION**** (6-1) ........ off the board @ 5-2

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$45.70
- 8.00
+ 9.20
======
$46.90

Both plays go off post-time favorites once again. Sounds like an old record.
Do you know what happens when you bet the chalk??
.... you go hunnngry ...., Bow-Bow-Bow ....

Today, we'll take the Train to the Fort for the first time since departure.

Today's plays (10-20-2015): $2wp

FE r#1
4 ALPHADEL***** (3-1)

IND r#1
10 CABO GOT GAME*** (12-1)

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 20, 2015

Good luck Prof.

Prof_Factor · Oct 20, 2015

Thanks Lt, same to you.

Prof_Factor · Oct 21, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$45.70
- 8.00
+ 9.20
======
$46.90

Both plays go off post-time favorites once again. Sounds like an old record.
Do you know what happens when you bet the chalk??
.... you go hunnngry ...., Bow-Bow-Bow ....

Today, we'll take the Train to the Fort for the first time since departure.

Today's plays (10-20-2015): $2wp

FE r#1
4 ALPHADEL***** (3-1) ........ off the board @ 8-5

IND r#1
10 CABO GOT GAME*** (12-1) ........ scratched

Early post. Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$46.90
- 4.00
======
$42.90

Today's plays (10-21-2015): $2wp

IND r#5
8 NEW CAT RIB**** (6-1)

WO r#5
4 ISTRUE** (20-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 21, 2015

Good luck Prof.

Prof_Factor · Oct 24, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$46.90
- 4.00
======
$42.90

Today's plays (10-21-2015): $2wp

IND r#5
8 NEW CAT RIB**** (6-1) ........ off the board @ 5-1

WO r#5
4 ISTRUE** (20-1) ........ scratched

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$42.90
- 4.00
======
$38.90

I actually don't care much for todays plays (hence, the 3 stars) so we need some price.

Today's plays (10-24-2015): $2wp

PRX r#5
1 PROSPECTOR ALLEY*** (8-1)

PRX r#9
8 FLATTERING TALES*** (5-1)

Slight inside bias at work at PRX (2-4 paths). Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Lt1 · Oct 24, 2015

Best of luck Prof

Prof_Factor · Oct 25, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$42.90
- 4.00
======
$38.90

I actually don't care much for todays plays (hence, the 3 stars) so we need some price.

Today's plays (10-24-2015): $2wp

PRX r#5
1 PROSPECTOR ALLEY*** (8-1) ........ 2nd $4.20 @ 2-1

PRX r#9
8 FLATTERING TALES*** (5-1) ........ off the board @ 8-5

Slight inside bias at work at PRX (2-4 paths). Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$38.90
- 8.00
+ 4.20
======
$35.10

Thought our picks might be in trouble if the bias we mentioned was still in play ..... and it was.
8 of the 9 races were won from posts 2,3,4 yesterday. 5 of them were favorites, 3 of them were not.
So to recap, 89% of all winners came from posts 2-4, and 75% of all non-favorite winners came from posts 2-4.
I should have kept both plays in the bias wheelhouse today but I'm running behind.
If the track took rain last night the bias could be gone. Thought it rained last night but they say track is fast.

Today's plays (10-25-2015): $2wp

PRX r#4
7 JERSEY BABE*** (10-1)

PRX r#5
3 PRETTY COOL CAT*** (8-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Prof_Factor · Oct 26, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$38.90
- 8.00
+ 4.20
======
$35.10

Thought our picks might be in trouble if the bias we mentioned was still in play ..... and it was.
8 of the 9 races were won from posts 2,3,4 yesterday. 5 of them were favorites, 3 of them were not.
So to recap, 89% of all winners came from posts 2-4, and 75% of all non-favorite winners came from posts 2-4.
I should have kept both plays in the bias wheelhouse today but I'm running behind.
If the track took rain last night the bias could be gone. Thought it rained last night but they say track is fast.

Today's plays (10-25-2015): $2wp

PRX r#4
7 JERSEY BABE*** (10-1) ........ off the board @ 25-1

PRX r#5
3 PRETTY COOL CAT*** (8-1) ........ off the board @ 3-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$35.10
- 8.00
======
$27.10

Our train ride is quickly approaching it's end.
Only 1 play today.

Today's plays (10-26-2015): $2wp

ZIA r#10
9 JACK B WILD**** (8-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Prof_Factor · Oct 27, 2015

Prof_Factor said:
Bank:
$35.10
- 8.00
======
$27.10

Our train ride is quickly approaching it's end.
Only 1 play today.

Today's plays (10-26-2015): $2wp

ZIA r#10
9 JACK B WILD**** (8-1) ........ off the board @ 2-1

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$27.10
- 4.00
======
$23.10

This would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
We're going with 5 plays today and bring the train to a halt.

Today's plays (10-27-2015): $2wp

IND r#1
10 BONNIE BRETTE**** (8-1)

ZIA r#5
8 VALLEY ROPER**** (8-1)

ZIA r#8
10 SPUNKY PETER*** (6-1)

ZIA r#9
4 IRISH QUEEN*** (12-1)

ZIA r#10
4 TRUST EMILY*** (8-1)

Good luck to all.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting odds to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]