Ridin' That Train

[Prof_Factor]

After watching the 1st at PARX, I'll be reviewing the fractions posted 23.0 48.0 1:15.0. That is not what it looked like to me.
That speed duel looked faster than 25 in the second quarter.
And besides, what are the odds of running "flats" for all calls? I'll check it out when I process the day.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$78.40
- 8.00
+ 7.60
======
$78.00


8-5 and 6-5 .... seriously?

Today's plays (9-22-2015): $2wp

FL r#3
1 QUIET POWER**** (4-1) ........ 3rd @ 4-5

IND r#4
10 FRAN'S FLATTER**** (6-1) ........ scratched


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$78.00
- 4.00
======
$74.00


A scratch and a 4-5 play sort of doomed are chances of profit.
Today's plays are similar turnbacks (well, sort of similar) that need a little luck with pace scenarios.
I'll just be happy if we can get anything resembling a fair price around here.

Today's plays (9-23-2015): $2wp

TDN r#8
1 DESIGNATOR**** (8-1)

ALB r#8
7 CHOCOLATIER**** (10-1)


Early post. Good luck to all.

Prof Tidbit: interesting goings on in IND 6th race maiden. Trouble trips to note, BONNIE BRETTE broke from post 1, attempted to back up and circle the field to avoid dead rail. No chance of that with light pace. ALLI GET YOUR GUN loomed a threat on the turn before severely being carried out at a big price. Don't think she would have won, because she didn't change leads, but she certainly would have hit the board. She looked like she was going to change leads a couple times. Could be another price next time. These go on the watch list.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Prof Tidbit: interesting goings on in IND 6th race maiden. Trouble trips to note, BONNIE BRETTE broke from post 1, attempted to back up and circle the field to avoid dead rail. No chance of that with light pace. ALLI GET YOUR GUN loomed a threat on the turn before severely being carried out at a big price. Don't think she would have won, because she didn't change leads, but she certainly would have hit the board. She looked like she was going to change leads a couple times. Could be another price next time. These go on the watch list.

Good news ...
Official Chart comments:

BONNIE BRETTE passed tired horses outside.
(how do you do that from post 1? No mention of circling field. Great for us.)

ALLI GET YOUR GUN stalked the pace inside,then had no late bid.
(Wrong. Horse broke from post 9, ran and finished outside. No mention of carryout. Great for us.)

 

[Lt1]

Best of luck today Prof. Thanks for the trip notes.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$78.00
- 4.00
======
$74.00


A scratch and a 4-5 play sort of doomed are chances of profit.
Today's plays are similar turnbacks (well, sort of similar) that need a little luck with pace scenarios.
I'll just be happy if we can get anything resembling a fair price around here.

Today's plays (9-23-2015): $2wp

TDN r#8
1 DESIGNATOR**** (8-1) ........ 3rd @ 6-1

ALB r#8
7 CHOCOLATIER**** (10-1) ........ track cancelled


Early post. Good luck to all.

Prof Tidbit: interesting goings on in IND 6th race maiden. Trouble trips to note, BONNIE BRETTE broke from post 1, attempted to back up and circle the field to avoid dead rail. No chance of that with light pace. ALLI GET YOUR GUN loomed a threat on the turn before severely being carried out at a big price. Don't think she would have won, because she didn't change leads, but she certainly would have hit the board. She looked like she was going to change leads a couple times. Could be another price next time. These go on the watch list.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$74.00
- 4.00
======
$70.00



Today's plays (9-24-2015): $2wp

BTP r#2
6 BLUE BULL**** (8-1)

BTP r#6
2 JOHNNIES BREEZE*** (20-1)


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

Get that train rolling again Prof

 

[Prof_Factor]

Get that train rolling again Prof

I hear that .... starting to get urgent.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$74.00
- 4.00
======
$70.00



Today's plays (9-24-2015): $2wp

BTP r#2
6 BLUE BULL**** (8-1) ........ 1st $17.40 $7.80

BTP r#6
2 JOHNNIES BREEZE*** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 10-1


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$70.00
- 8.00
+25.20
======
$87.20



Today's plays (9-26-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
1A CANWEWIN**** (8-1)

WO r#5
2 BEARS REFLECTION**** (8-1)


Early post. Good luck to all.

Prof tidbit: Timing error, ZIA 9-21-2015 race#5, no fractions, 1:15.32 final time. My replacements are 23.00 47.40 fractions, 1:19.32 final.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

The train building up speed again

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$70.00
- 8.00
+25.20
======
$87.20



Today's plays (9-25-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
1A CANWEWIN**** (8-1) ........ 3rd @ 7-1

WO r#5
2 BEARS REFLECTION**** (8-1) ........ 1st $5.60 $3.80


Early post. Good luck to all.

Prof tidbit: Timing error, ZIA 9-21-2015 race#5, no fractions, 1:15.32 final time. My replacements are 23.00 47.40 fractions, 1:19.32 final.

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$87.20
- 8.00
+ 9.40
======
$88.60



Today's plays (9-26-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
10 MUY MAN***** (7-2)

WO r#9
2 THALIAS FIRE*** (15-1)


Early post. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$87.20
- 8.00
+ 9.40
======
$88.60



Today's plays (9-26-2015): $2wp

FL r#6
10 MUY MAN***** (7-2) ........ 3rd @ 6-5

WO r#9
2 THALIAS FIRE*** (15-1) ........ 3rd @ 20-1


Early post. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$88.60
- 8.00
======
$80.60



Today's plays (9-27-2015): $2wp

WO r#3
8 PROROGUING**** (10-1)

MTH r#7
8 RICO SUAVE*** (10-1)


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$88.60
- 8.00
======
$80.60



Today's plays (9-27-2015): $2wp

WO r#3
8 PROROGUING**** (10-1) ........ off the board @ 11-1

MTH r#7
8 RICO SUAVE*** (10-1) ........ 2nd $7.00 @ 6-1


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$80.60
- 8.00
+ 7.00
======
$79.60


Been quite disappointing the last few days.

Today's plays (9-28-2015): $2wp

FL r#3
4 SKY FORTUNE**** (9-2)

TDN r#2
8 HATHRAAN**** (9-2)

MNR r#3
7 SNAPPY LITTLE SONG*** (12-1)


Three plays today. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$80.60
- 8.00
+ 7.00
======
$79.60


Been quite disappointing the last few days.

Today's plays (9-28-2015): $2wp

FL r#3
4 SKY FORTUNE**** (9-2) ........ 2nd $2.50 @ 1-1

TDN r#2
8 HATHRAAN**** (9-2) ........ off the board @ 5-1

MNR r#3
7 SNAPPY LITTLE SONG*** (12-1) ........ scratched


Three plays today. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$79.60
- 8.00
+ 2.50
======
$74.10


Train slowing down quickly.

Today's plays (9-29-2015): $2wp

FL r#8
6 BUCKSHOT WOODY*** (15-1)

IND r#9
8 A DEVIL SHE AINT**** (15-1)


Early post. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[GreenThumbRacing]

I see the train picking up steam again

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$79.60
- 8.00
+ 2.50
======
$74.10


Train slowing down quickly.

Today's plays (9-29-2015): $2wp

FL r#8
6 BUCKSHOT WOODY*** (15-1) ........ 2nd $4.20 @ 6-1

IND r#9
8 A DEVIL SHE AINT**** (15-1) ........ off the board @ 5-1


Early post. Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$74.10
- 8.00
+ 4.20
======
$70.30


I have to laugh at these prices. Seriously overbet!!
Doesn't matter if your bets lose or win at the wrong price because you'll go broke in both cases.
Train will be put on hold for a few days .... have some work I need to get done.

Today's plays (9-30-2015): $2wp

- none -


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[NYMess]

Prof, the prices are short because you have a huge following cause you are a great capper!!! Remember what Simon Bray always said, "I don't bet the favorite, I make the favorite."

Continued success!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Never understood why they use morning lines anyway, you cannot bet them and some (a lot) are not even close to the post time odds.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Prof, the prices are short because you have a huge following cause you are a great capper!!! Remember what Simon Bray always said, "I don't bet the favorite, I make the favorite."Continued success!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Never understood why they use morning lines anyway, you cannot bet them and some (a lot) are not even close to the post time odds.

I might have to re-think this ..... either quit picking from small money tracks or start playing the more likely winners.

Hoping to be back in action Saturday.

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$74.10
- 8.00
+ 4.20
======
$70.30


I have to laugh at these prices. Seriously overbet!!
Doesn't matter if your bets lose or win at the wrong price because you'll go broke in both cases.
Train will be put on hold for a few days .... have some work I need to get done.

Today's plays (9-30-2015): $2wp

- none -


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$70.30
- 0.00
======
$70.30


Not nuts about the opportunities today but we'll see if we can keep the train from braking and breaking.

Today's plays (10-02-2015): $2wp

IND r#4
1 GROOMZILLA**** (9-2)

WO r#8
7 ZDENKA** (20-1)


Good luck to all.

Prof tidbit: longshot threats worth noting today are SA race#6, 9 THE MAD HUNGARIAN*** (12-1), and RP race#7, 7 TACTICAL CHARLIE*** (15-1).

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Prof_Factor]

Bank:
$70.30
- 0.00
======
$70.30


Not nuts about the opportunities today but we'll see if we can keep the train from braking and breaking.

Today's plays (10-02-2015): $2wp

IND r#4
1 GROOMZILLA**** (9-2) ........ off the board @ 6-1

WO r#8
7 ZDENKA** (20-1) ........ off the board @ 16-1


Good luck to all.

Prof tidbit: longshot threats worth noting today are SA race#6, 9 THE MAD HUNGARIAN*** (12-1), and RP race#7, 7 TACTICAL CHARLIE*** (15-1).

[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

Bank:
$70.30
- 8.00
======
$62.30


Getting urgent around here. Haven't found any nice shots for today yet. I'm running late.

Today's plays (10-03-2015): $2wp

BTP r#3
5 MINING TOWN***** (7-2)

BTP r#4
2 MIDNIGHT GLIDE**** (8-1)


Good luck to all.


[size=-2]5-star: Likely best in field. Fully expect to win.
4-star: One of the top contenders. Very good chance to win. Fully expect a board finish.
3-star: Value play contender. Decent chance to win. Expecting value to be more than fair ... justifying play.
2-star: Longshot play. Fully expect horse to finish in top half of field and odds to far exceed actual chances.
[/size]

 

[Lt1]

Best of luck Prof.