Chelsea vs. Fulham +1.75 @ +109
Pinnacle - 2.5units
A large part of a good record in sports betting is being able to determine when an underperforming team will turn things around and return to the level expected of them. Part of this also requires the books odds to reflect that level of underperformance. I don't think this line does.
Chelsea have performed very poorly of late. I don't think they've had one outstanding performance in the league this season. However, of more consequence is that recently things have gotten alot worse. Despite their last-minute victories against Everton and Wigan, the team is not playing with the same solidity and efficiency expected of them. Part of this is down to the new formation Mourinho has installed in a 4-4-2 diamond, built to accomodate Ballack, Lampard, Essien and Makalele. This has definitely not benefitted Shevchenko, making it harder for him to adapt to a disjointed system. He's been crap. The biggest issue at the moment is the loss of John Terry, meaning the defence is now a mess incapable of defending set pieces. You combine this with the mental pressure that Chelsea and Mourinho have yet to encounter. They're behind in the league, to a Man Utd team that are managing to win by big margins and convincingly.
There's two things I see. Either Chelsea respond to the pressure (they have to win) by thoroughly beating Fulham in some kind of 4-0 battering. Or, the mental and physical impact of their gruelling last minute wins, and draw from Reading will be evident.
Fulham are ravaged with injuries to the defence and midfield. Their next match will be two days later against Watford at home. That seems the more pressing match to win, so will they play a more cautious game aware that they can't beat Chelsea? I don't think so. The makeshift midfield of Brown, Volz, Routledge, and Radzinski won't exactly have Lampard and Essien quaking in their boots. But they are all fast and extremely hard-working. As long as they can exploit the Chelsea defence and goalkeeper by getting the crosses and setpieces in for McBride and Helguson to get on the end of, then they've got a great chance in this match. I hope they can withstand the early pressure from Chelsea, and cause panic to the Chelsea defence so they can cover the 1.75.