Reverse Line Movement

[goblue12]

Twins won last night, improving the record to 15-5 (75%)

We have a play tonight. Go to sbrodds.com and look at the percentages / line movement to figure it out.

 

[sparticus]

The Cards if the percentages stay about where they are now,gl.

 

[FourHorsemen]

Thanks Blue...

Hope Richrod can turn the Maize around this year!

 

[ionicking]

Actually, It's Tampa Bay defeating the Yanks!

 

[goblue12]

The Cards if the percentages stay about where they are now,gl.

Unfortunately, the line is moving from -114 (open) to -108 (current), meaning technically it's not reverse line movement.

Rays are the only play thus far for the night. GL everyone.

 

[goblue12]

Well ... the Red Sox are a play today, but they're going off at -400 at some books.

:think2: ML or RL?

 

[sparticus]

Percentages have changed now,gl

 

[goblue12]

Yup, NVM on the Boston play.

Thank goodness to, because I'm martingale this system on a daily basis, and that would have put a large dent (8%) in my bankroll.

 

[CoolBreeze22]

I'm new at this so I was wondering wouldn't the Giants qualify as a play tonight?

 

[goblue12]

No, the Giants would not qualify as a play.

The line has to be moving towards the favorite (ex: -120 becomes -125, or for other sports the point spread moves 1.5 points toward the favorite) and 51% or more of the action has to be on the underdog.

There are no plays that fit that description today in the MLB.

 

[Everybodystinks]

The Yanks are a possibility.

 

[goblue12]

Twins looking like a play today.

 

[goblue12]

Twins lost yesterday, moving the record to 16-7.

Today it looks like we have two plays, the Twins and Diamondbacks with potential plays in the late night.

 

[1968]

One thing I have found to be consistent in all sports I bet is reverse line movement plays work - if you use them properly.

The concept of RLM is that the majority of the bettors are on one side, yet the line moves in towards the other team.

What I have found in every sport is that whenever the public is on the DOG, and the line moves towards the FAVORITE, the favorite hits at a high clip.

There were 3 games today that fit this criteria:

Detroit-NY Yankees

Tigers were +210. Public ate them up. Why? They're a division leader, getting 2-1. 52% of the bets were on Detroit (percentages are from 5Dimes book) and the line moved from -205 to -230 on the Yankees.

Philadelphia-Florida

Florida (at home) opened up at plus money. Outside of that, I honestly have no idea what attracted bettors to Florida. 56% were on Florida, yet the Phillies line grew from -122 to -125.

NY Mets-Atlanta

This one screamed sucker bet. The Mets are a big public team. When you dangle a huge number out there, there will be New Yorkers (a large contingent of the betting population) who think "We got a chance, I mean come on it's the Braves!" and bet. 63% took the Mets and watched them get clobbered. The Braves line grew from -190 to -200.

where do you view pub %'s?

 

[sparticus]

At this time arizona looks like a play.

 

[goblue12]

Arizona - and only Arizona- is the play.

Wish me luck, I'm on my 3rd leg after Wednesday's Rays loser and Friday's Twins loser. hno:

Lots of sites you can get the %'s at. They have them at Sports Insights, Sports Options, Covers, and SBR Odds to my knowledge.

 

[FourHorsemen]

What about SEA? opened @ -118 and is -119. 44% on SEA.

 

[goblue12]

What about SEA? opened @ -118 and is -119. 44% on SEA.

Seattle was a play.

 

[sparticus]

Looks like tampa may be a play along with it maybe also being a runline play also,gl all.

 

[xyzky]

RLM as of 10:10am Pac. Time

Cinncy
SFO
SDG
BAL
MIN
OAK
SEA