So what exactly is your point? First you say that I'm not giving bettors enough credit, then you turn around and say "public = bettors." So you want me to give the public more credit? You implied that they're more knowledgeable than I think, that they would have to know who Edwin Jackson is, etc., but now you're essentially saying that they're pretty clueless? You also said EXACTLY what I said about the public in regards to the fact that they don't analyze games, or crunch numbers, or look at factors like weather, umpires, etc.
You're probably right when you say that this forum IS the public. I was probably giving people HERE too much credit. So on that, I agree. As far as your other points though, it looks like you're backing up my initial argument.
But to get back to my original question, how can people be sure that the lines they are getting are accurate? If it's from a sportsbook, you have to immediately discount it. There is no way they are going to willingly give you info that would help beat them. If it's from some third party site, I still wouldn't trust it because the books could be paying them to release lines they want released. Maybe the lines are accurate, but I don't know how you could ever know that for sure. Especially when the lines vary so much from site to site.
You implied that people simply pick games at random, or because they like the team. That's not giving people enough credit. There is at least SOME thought that goes into a game, especially when you put $$$ on it.
Because someone knows who Edwin Jackson is, doesn't mean they make money gambling and we should follow them. Not difficult to understand my friend.
Giving out betting percentages aren't going to kill sportsbooks. Not even close. Sites have been tracking percentages given out by sportsbooks for years, and unless you've got a database of percentages, understand what certain percentages mean, there's no way to make money off it.
Many sites. Covers.com has a consensus picks page, SportsInsights gives out percentages, as does SportsOptions.
However for this I use SBRodds.com as I know the book that gives out the percentage, and the book that moves the line. Other sites take percentages from a combination of books and you don't have as good of an understanding of where the "sharp" money is.
Well, I think we're speaking two different languages. I never said that every single person who bets on a game doesn't put any thought into it. Not at all. I was simply disagreeing with you when you said that you found it hard to believe that people would bet on a game pretty much blindly. You said you were pretty certain that they would at least know something about the opposing pitcher. I was just saying that, at least from my experience, I know there are people who DO bet on games without knowing anything about the opposing pitcher. It may sound foolish and hard to believe, but trust me, there are guys who do it. And one only has to look at the amount of people on this site, or other sites, who blindly tail people on their plays.
As for percentages, I think a lot of people would disagree with you that you can't make money simply by seeing where the money is going and how much of it is going where. I'm not saying it's an exact science or that I'm one of those people, but there are tons of people who play line movement only, and don't even look at the teams playing. Some of those people are very good at making bets that way. That's why I find it hard to believe that the books wouldn't have an interest when it comes to posting the percentages.
At any rate, I honestly didn't mean for this to become a big thing and I wasn't trying to stir the pot or anything like that. And I do agree with you that following line movement, and making plays based upon that movement, can be profitable.
Nice job on your plays so far. GL going forward.
It's not hard to get. He's had one of these RLM threads for each sport since joining.
Rockies today qualified as a play.
http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/mlb/game/moneyline.html
Colorado Rockies
Opening Line (5dimes): -150
Closing Line (5dimes): -154
Percentage of bets on COL: 45%
New York Mets
Opening Line (5dimes): +140
Closing Line (5dimes): +144
Percentage of bets on NYM: 55%
Rockies today qualified as a play.
http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/mlb/game/moneyline.html
Colorado Rockies
Opening Line (5dimes): -150
Closing Line (5dimes): -154
Percentage of bets on COL: 45%
New York Mets
Opening Line (5dimes): +140
Closing Line (5dimes): +144
Percentage of bets on NYM: 55%
