Not arguing if it was or wasn't a 1st down (looking at the pictures/GIFs, I lean towards a first, either way too close to overturn any call on the field, no matter if they called him short or across the 1st down marker). But I don't agree with that logic: It is true that the ball has to touch the 15 in that case and that you don't need the chains to find the 1st down spot. BUT: The nose of the football isn't touching the ground, it's several cm up in the air. So if it really is a matter of inches, it depends a lot on your viewing angle to decide if the nose touches the 15 in that case or doesn't. So bringing out the chains can actually make sense because it extends the 15yard line vertically and thereby makes it a lot easier to decide if the nose of the ball touches the 15 or if it doesn't.
Another part I disagree with is that you should only bet a sport, when you know all the rules: There are lots of successful bettors out there, that use a completely different approach based on math/data analysis, line movement and other stuff and don't watch many (if any games), barely know the rules or players of specific teams but still come out way ahead of people that know all the ins and outs of the rulebook and/or teams. There isn't necessarily a correlation between those things.
The ball has an elliptical shape, therefore the part that is furthest downfield after it has been spotted is up in the air and not touching the ground. When the decision on it being a 1st down comes down to an inch or fractions of an inch, it is far easier to determine if you have the chain out.
The marker at the end of the chain extends the chalk at the 15yard line upwards to the height of the nose of the ball. Otherwise the point of view can be misleading if you aren't looking at it straight down or at a 90degree angle from the side. If you put the big upright marker of the chain out there, there would be pretty much no margin of error left because the nose of the ball actually would touch the marker or at least give you a way easier/better vantage point. And when the whole game and in that case the whole season depends on the spot, a minute to bring out the chains to be absolutely sure, would seem like a no-brainer to me.
But at the same time this in general is the most ridiculous part of football in my opinion: The whole spot is 100% subjective because it solely depends on the referees opinion, deciding on where the ball was when forward progress ended or the player was down. Doing all this from several yards away with often times an obstructed view and with all the motion going on. But then afterwards they measure it down to inches as if it was an exact science...but thats a whole different topic.
Take a football and place it so that the nose is at the edge of a table: It's not that easy to decide if the nose/tip is actually right on the table's edge or across or a fraction short. On the other hand if you take a ruler or some other aid and press it against the edge of the table, it becomes far easier to just the position of the football because the ruler/aid kind of "extends/lifts" the edge of the table several inches up the the tip of the football.
Just to make it clear: Even though I first thought he was short when it happened, after seeing the replays and pictures I think they got the call right and he or more precisely the ball actually made it to the 15yard line.
Either way, to me personally it doesn't really matter: That play is impossible to call correctly on the spot, without technical help like replays and such. No human being, standing 15yards away, can judge the exact forward progress on a play down to an inch or even fractions of an inch, period. Even less with other players blocking (part of) his view and the position of the ball.
And if you look at the replays, pictures and anything else, in my opinion no matter what the call on the field was, any review should only come back with one result: The play stands because the video was inconclusive and can't 100% confirm an error by the ref.
So in the end you can't really blame the refs on that play, no matter what their call is.
You ought to read the thread. I said earlier, that it looked like the refs were against Michigan throughout the game. I just don't think that that play decided it. From what I saw, the ball made the mark. Devils advocate? Mich Qb throws 2 picks in front of his end zone and fumbles. He blew it!
