Randizzle's Week 10 NCAAF (58-19-3)(75.3%)(+79.1 Units)

fadethepublic1 · Oct 30, 2008

Randizzle14 said:
Game 1
-------
AIR FORCE (6 - 2) at ARMY (3 - 5)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 12:00 PM

In a rivalry game where it is obvious that both teams know eachothers game plan (running), people are curious why I choose this game on the board when "It could go either way". Well the fact is that any game can go any way. I.E. Stanford beating USC last year. There is no such thing as a sure game, but there are games that you can find value in and statistically have an advatage when choosing the right team.

We know both teams can rush the ball, and do it well but the Falcons have the edge. They are averaging 291 Rushing yards/game and 347/game on the Road. Army is very impressive as well on the ground with 247 yards/game, but at home that drops off too 217 yards/game. This may not seem like much, but that's a difference of 130ypg between the two teams given the current situation.

As far as passing goes, it is almost not even worth noting due to the fact both teams are averaging less than 10 attempts/game.

The one stat (and possibly most important stat in Football) that lured me into this game more than any is Turnovers. Air Force is a well disciplined team that takes care of the ball. They have 10 Giveaways this season and 18 takeaways. nearly a 2to1 ratio on the + side for them. On the other side, Army is not as efficient. They have give the ball away 17 times this season while only managing 9 Takeaways. That alone tells me Airforce should have 2 to 3 more possesions and opportunity to score than Army on Saturday. Also, the Falcons have had 2 extra days to prepare for this game (doesn't seem like much, but every bit helps).

AIR FORCE is 14-5 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons
AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 19-7 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
ARMY is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 4-14 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

AIR FORCE is 10-6 against the spread versus ARMY
AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons

Calhoun is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Key Trends in Reference to the Line:
Air Force Falcons are 29-15-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 14-6-0 ATS After 1 ATS Wins (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 17-6-0 ATS After 1 Home (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 16-7-0 ATS vs. Army (All Lines)

Head-Head
When the line was 7 -> 9.5- AF- 04-01-00 (80.0%)

My Power Ratings:
Air Force: 34th
Army: 110th

My Effiency Ratings:
Air Force: 39th
Army: 93rd

I am Taking Air Force -9 (4 Units)

*-8.5 is available, but I grabbed this early so I'm stuck with 9.

GL, Dizz :toast:

Dizzle,
When doing your analysis, do you base it off of primarily trends, or do you use some type of mathematical formula/model. Or do u use both trends and formulas to help in your decision making. I notice in your write ups, you like to use a lot of trends such as the ones above. Appreciate the info buddy.

as always... aloha.

Randizzle14 · Oct 30, 2008

Game 2

Game 2
-------
FLORIDA (6 - 1) vs. GEORGIA (7 - 1)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 3:30 PM
-----------------------------------------------
"Georgia, winning at LSU last week and having to get ready for a swamp full of angry Gators in Jacksonville. Georgia pulled some chicanery last season making Florida mad. Last year’s game was a blow to the ego of Urban Meyer is not about to let something like that pass. Florida has owned this SEC showdown, with 15-3 record and 11-6-1 ATS mark, though the Gators are just 1-7 ATS off two or more home games. Watch for the favorite who is just 1-5-1 ATS the last 7 years. For those that already know who the winner is, back them, since the SU winner is 22-3-1 ATS." Florida has the fastest receiving corps in the Nation, and I believe they will show it this weekend. Urban Meyer and the Gators are going to be lookng to embarass this Georgia team to get revenge for last year. The turnover ratio for these teams is fairly even with Florida having the slightest of an advantage. YPR, Florida takes the cake but not by much.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
(53-22 since 1992.) (70.7%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).

FLORIDA is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game
FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="matchupCells Text">
FLORIDA is 10-6 against the spread versus GEORGIA
FLORIDA is 13-3 straight up against GEORGIA

Meyer is 11-2 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of FLORIDA.

My Power Ratings:
Florida: 1st
Georgia: 13th

My Effiency Rating:
Florida: 2nd
Georgia: 29th

I am Taking Florida -5 (3 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

ZJP6050 · Oct 30, 2008

though the florida play worries me slightly...i think i may be jumping on it anyway with you lol. good luck bro:toast:

Randizzle14 · Oct 30, 2008

Game 3

Game 3
--------
TCU (8 - 1) at UNLV (3 - 5)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 8:00 PM
-----------------------------------------------

To me this game is simple. TCU has not allowed more than 7 points in their last 4 games, and they are allowing an average of just 10.4 ppg. On the other side, UNLV is allowing 33ppg. TCU's only loss this year is to the powerhouse Oklahoma, and their 13-7 victory over Colorado St. was without their starting QB. This game should not be within 21 points IMO.

TCU is 11-2 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-0 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-0 ATS after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 3-12 ATS in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

TCU is 3-1 against the spread versus UNLV

My Power Rankings:
TCU: 9th
UNLV: 71st

My Effiency Rating:
TCU: 6th
UNLV: 86th

I am Taking TCU -13 (3 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

5-0SAT · Oct 30, 2008

Love the TCU play... They are imo a top 5 team. They're the only team in division 1-a who actually plays defense. Really like a swift kick in the UNLV ace by the Horned Frogs... gl this week randizzle

geeze · Oct 30, 2008

I'm down with you on all three, Dizz.

Allow me to presume to give you some advice:

Ruthlessly eliminate negative people from your life.

Ignore them. If you don't, they will drain your positive energy, blur your focus and disrupt the harmony that exists with you, your friends and followers.

The secret is to ignore them. This frustrates them.

This prevents them from entangling you in endless confrontational arguments.

Our goal is to have fun winning together.

Their agenda is different. They have self-esteem problems. They need to run good people down in order to feel better about themselves.

They are not really interested in gambling. If they were, they would happily follow your selections with gratitude.

Thank you for the profit, fun and excitement I have had following your advice.

And at my age, that keeps me living in the moment and not dwelling on health problems.

I wish you the best of luck in your studies, your career and of course your sports research.

LET'S RUMBLE !!

Randizzle14 · Oct 30, 2008

geeze said:
I'm down with you on all three, Dizz.

Allow me to presume to give you some advice:

Ruthlessly eliminate negative people from your life.

Ignore them. If you don't, they will drain your positive energy, blur your focus and disrupt the harmony that exists with you, your friends and followers.

The secret is to ignore them. This frustrates them.

This prevents them from entangling you in endless confrontational arguments.

Our goal is to have fun winning together.

Their agenda is different. They have self-esteem problems. They need to run good people down in order to feel better about themselves.

They are not really interested in gambling. If they were, they would happily follow your selections with gratitude.

Thank you for the profit, fun and excitement I have had following your advice.

And at my age, that keeps me living in the moment and not dwelling on health problems.

I wish you the best of luck in your studies, your career and of course your sports research.

LET'S RUMBLE !!

Thanks Geeze. I truly value your insight and appreciate you advice. There is nothing more valueable than wisdom through experience, and if I remember correctly you have a lot of that. I will take you up on your advice to the best of my abilities, although I know my fuse will light now and then and I will lose it i'm sure. I wish you and your health nothing but the best.

Dizz

ToneG · Oct 30, 2008

Stellar last week Dizz! Allow me to say F#@& the haters and let's keep rolling! Most of the people on this forum appreciate your abilities more than you will know. Ignore the other idiots! Thanx again!

mps1783 · Oct 30, 2008

Hey dizz thanks again for all the hard work i know you say the smartest thing to have is proper money management. This would mean only playing a few games a week but i was wondering if you did any looking into the game tonight as cincinattis three quarterbacks are banged up and it is only at 2.5 i was thinking south florida with the under let me know what you think thanks

MVCgolfchamp · Oct 30, 2008

Tcu

Dizz, do you still like TCU at -14?

sarcean · Oct 30, 2008

Randizzle14 said:
Game 2
-------
FLORIDA (6 - 1) vs. GEORGIA (7 - 1)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 3:30 PM
-----------------------------------------------
"Georgia, winning at LSU last week and having to get ready for a swamp full of angry Gators in Jacksonville. Georgia pulled some chicanery last season making Florida mad. Last year’s game was a blow to the ego of Urban Meyer is not about to let something like that pass. Florida has owned this SEC showdown, with 15-3 record and 11-6-1 ATS mark, though the Gators are just 1-7 ATS off two or more home games. Watch for the favorite who is just 1-5-1 ATS the last 7 years. For those that already know who the winner is, back them, since the SU winner is 22-3-1 ATS." Florida has the fastest receiving corps in the Nation, and I believe they will show it this weekend. Urban Meyer and the Gators are going to be lookng to embarass this Georgia team to get revenge for last year. The turnover ratio for these teams is fairly even with Florida having the slightest of an advantage. YPR, Florida takes the cake but not by much.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
(53-22 since 1992.) (70.7%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).

FLORIDA is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game
FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="0" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td class="matchupCells Text">
FLORIDA is 10-6 against the spread versus GEORGIA
FLORIDA is 13-3 straight up against GEORGIA

Meyer is 11-2 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of FLORIDA.

My Power Ratings:
Florida: 1st
Georgia: 13th

My Effiency Rating:
Florida: 2nd
Georgia: 29th

I am Taking Florida -5 (3 Units) :toast:

GL, Dizz

</td></tr></tbody></table>

Just a little problem with your inition description, its a neutral crowd that the tickets are split 50/50 between the teams. Then you even say foryour self - Watch for the favorite who is just 1-5-1 ATS the last 7 years. Also why do you say for example UF is 10-6 ATS versus Georgia when they have played 85 times? Why go back selectively to when Spurrier was coaching? The only real stat that matters is Georgia is 2-2 versus UF in the last four years and I think 3-1 ATS. For every favorable stat you can find for UF you can find something that will tell you to take Georgia too.

TOOTIGHT · Oct 30, 2008

Diz,

Do you look at reverse line movement at all? Nearly 70% of bettors are on Air Force yet the line keeps moving in their favor. You are pretty good about which public plays are good ones but I always hate seeing stuff like that.

I really lay off when the visiting team is the one everyone likes, which isn't the case here but still thought it was worth mentioning.

TOOTIGHT · Oct 30, 2008

sarcean said:
Just a little problem with your inition description, its a neutral crowd that the tickets are split 50/50 between the teams. Then you even say foryour self - Watch for the favorite who is just 1-5-1 ATS the last 7 years. Also why do you say for example UF is 10-6 ATS versus Georgia when they have played 85 times? Why go back selectively to when Spurrier was coaching? The only real stat that matters is Georgia is 2-2 versus UF in the last four years and I think 3-1 ATS. For every favorable stat you can find for UF you can find something that will tell you to take Georgia too.

Dude, he does what he does and it has worked so far this year. If you think he uses skewed numbers then come up with your own but don't try to call people out.

SizzleChest · Oct 30, 2008

Public opinion polls are a dime a dozen and not a good indication of what would affect the line. Even if, 70% of the public would not mean that 70% of the money, which is what moves lines, is being placed on the same team.

abc · Oct 30, 2008

I think that's what his point was. He was saying that 70% was on AF, but yet the line moves in favor of AF.

duckhunter · Oct 30, 2008

gl dizz!

zeropointzero · Oct 30, 2008

As always, your handicapping is logical and sound. Only point I see that isn't addressed is the fact that TCU has big game vs. Utah on Thurs or Fri. Are they going to be looking ahead and take foot off gas if they get up 3 scores on UNLV?

youngmoney · Oct 30, 2008

randizzle, im new to posting on the site. however i've been follwing this forum for a couple of years now. I've seen great cappers come and go and you def fit right in with the bunch.
really enjoy reading your insights on the games. you must have superior time managment skills to balance school and gambling and have the success you've been getting with your plays. i hope your grades are just as good lol.

i had a couple of questions when you get the time. whats your thoughts on air force -10. (local bookie) i kinda see em winning by 10 but thought you might have some advice.

and tulsa -7 @ arkansas. tulsa has a weak conference and shitty defenses have given then huge numbers this year. now they face an SEC defense in the razorbacks this saturday and should be the first real test for that offense they have. tulsa has never beaten arkansas, i think they'll come out trying to make a statement this week. also tulsa is sittin at a +4 turnover ration where as arkansas is -8. definatley think this will give tulsa the ball a couple of more times to run the score up. i see the razorbacks givin them a run for their money but dont think they'll be able to score enough to keep up with the offensive power of tulsa.

BOL this weekend

FadeMeToWin · Oct 30, 2008

see post 160 for detailed analysis

youngmoney said:
randizzle, im new to posting on the site. however i've been follwing this forum for a couple of years now. I've seen great cappers come and go and you def fit right in with the bunch.
really enjoy reading your insights on the games. you must have superior time managment skills to balance school and gambling and have the success you've been getting with your plays. i hope your grades are just as good lol.

i had a couple of questions when you get the time. whats your thoughts on air force -10. (local bookie) i kinda see em winning by 10 but thought you might have some advice.

See post 160 for his total write up on this game