**Randizzle's** Week 10 NCAAF **(58-19-3)(75.3%)(+79.1 Units)**

[smalltime]

Great Plays once again

Dizzle just keep doing what you are doing those haters propably run a small house out of the basement and getting some ass handed to them. Just jealous of your plays. I appreciate all you are doing for everyone:toast:

 

[Preussen]

Dear Texas dumbfuck,

...
2) He posted it as +3 (one half point off of what was available)
3) Lots of people don't think twice about buying a line like that up
...

I'm not taking sides in the discussion between Rd and UT (which is over anyway), but it exposed the naivity of some bettors.
Contrary to popular belief, buying a half point is a big deal. For example, it is generally agreed that hitting 55% ATS over the long run on regular juice is really good and will win a lot of money. However, if you pay -120 all the time suddenly you only break even with 55%. And considering that when you buy from +2.5 to +3 it usually costs more, meaning you are more likely to pay -125 or even -130, this actually becomes a losing proposition for a 55% capper.

Btw to the poster who mentioned Skybook's free half-point promo - Skybook does not give you a free half-point on and off 3 and 7.

Once more, just to make this clear, this post is not intended to criticise Rd. He does not seem to be someone who has to resort to trickery in order to boost his record.

 

[AlistairCookie]

I'm not taking sides in the discussion between Rd and UT (which is over anyway), but it exposed the naivity of some bettors.
Contrary to popular belief, buying a half point is a big deal. For example, it is generally agreed that hitting 55% ATS over the long run on regular juice is really good and will win a lot of money. However, if you pay -120 all the time suddenly you only break even with 55%. And considering that when you buy from +2.5 to +3 it usually costs more, meaning you are more likely to pay -125 or even -130, this actually becomes a losing proposition for a 55% capper.

Btw to the poster who mentioned Skybook's free half-point promo - Skybook does not give you a free half-point on and off 3 and 7.

Once more, just to make this clear, this post is not intended to criticise Rd. He does not seem to be someone who has to resort to trickery in order to boost his record.

And I wasn't saying it wasn't a big deal - just that lots of people buy those half points around 3 and 7.

 

[Preussen]

And I wasn't saying it wasn't a big deal - just that lots of people buy those half points around 3 and 7.

Exactly. And those people don't think it's a big deal, but this doesn't make the extra juice irrelevant.

 

[DANDORO]

Randizzle I appreciate very much your work here, but I would like to give you an advice, as an older capper that I am. First of all don't even think to go tout so soon. Why? Because most of the times, once you did it, your record will never be the same. Why? Because selling your picks presume to be more responsible, more careful in choosing your options, knowing that a lot of people depends on you. Many times, the disbelief in your own capping powers starts to fade, ending in a lower hitting percentage. I tell you all this from my own experience, maybe you will be able to avoid this situation, but...we all are humans, and this "law" of nature is the same for all unfortunatelly. Keep this good strake rolling and forget the haters. GL, dizz!

 

[smalltime]

Honesty

fine, im done here, but let the record show I asked him a simple question, he got all smart ass on me, I called his bluff and exposed him- case closed.

You want honesty go to the poker room and listen to them. Just drop it already if you want to follow then please do if you don't, then don't. Why the bashing we all just trying to make money.some of us are not good at this but we just welcome the insite of people who do the homework. Thanks Dizzle stocks are up with you. I really appreciate all your efforts

 

[eaglesfannyc]

Dizzle - great work this season. The Airforce line is down to -8.5 at the greek. I know a .5 point doesnt make a huge difference, but any concern on making that a big play? Thanks.

 

[Dr.Loomis]

As one of the only females on the board... you men sound like women...

settle down!!!

thanks for the plays dizz

Gonna Have to Agree.... If Thats YOUR Picture . . Then I Am Diggin It! I Like Your Style

 

[SizzleChest]

Randizzle, A good capper like yourself has to see theopportunity to pound out a game like Kentucky +3. Cant see you missing out on that play!!

 

[King.Of.College.Totals]

I'm not taking sides in the discussion between Rd and UT (which is over anyway), but it exposed the naivity of some bettors.
Contrary to popular belief, buying a half point is a big deal. For example, it is generally agreed that hitting 55% ATS over the long run on regular juice is really good and will win a lot of money. However, if you pay -120 all the time suddenly you only break even with 55%. And considering that when you buy from +2.5 to +3 it usually costs more, meaning you are more likely to pay -125 or even -130, this actually becomes a losing proposition for a 55% capper.

Btw to the poster who mentioned Skybook's free half-point promo - Skybook does not give you a free half-point on and off 3 and 7.

Once more, just to make this clear, this post is not intended to criticise Rd. He does not seem to be someone who has to resort to trickery in order to boost his record.

Other than RanDizzle's picks, this is the most well thought-out post in this thread and people should pay attention to it.

Good luck with your plays this weekend Randizzle. I have to say that I have been expecting your record to drop off greatly. And you just keep winning. Keep up the great work.

 

[smcl]

Dizzle thanks for all the research you do and then take even more time to post it on here when you have the pain in the ass that is college. I have been following all year and have not posted cause I dont know sh#t about capping just like to bet. Please dont let these morons get to you. I would assume most people are like me and skim right past that BS cause we all know it will do nothing for my bankroll. The only thing that I am interested in is your picks and breakdowns. That puts cash in my pocket.
Thanks again

Does Air Force moving to -8.5 change your thoughts at all?

 

[jgdwvu11]

ignore the haters

Told you Dizz, you just need to take a deep breath and completely ignore the post. That way the idiots and bashing cannot reply to any of your commments...you are kicking ass and taking names...ignore the losers that are tying to throw youoff your game..ope:

 

[GoForIt]

The haters should be hating Las Vegas/Offshore sportsbooks more than you. Even though I don't play your picks Dizzle, it is always good to see someone stick it to the system.

 

[TheNoob]

The one thing I like about across the street...The mods move all the stupid bashing to the rubber room (Asylum)...keeps threads clean and the haters out.


Great job this year and BOL this weekend!

 

[USC_TheReal]

Dizz, you done with finals yet? I think they got you a little strung out. No worries, I know the feeling. Keep up the good work, I enjoy the writeups and watching you roll in the bank. Cheers brother.

 

[Randizzle14]

To Everyone: I know alot of you ask qustions, or offer support and I have not been able o reply to all of you. Just want everyone to know that I do read each post and appreciate any insight, appreciation, or questions asked. Eventually when I have the time I will be able to interact more, but between capping and studying I have not the time.

So, Thank you ALL is what I wanted to say.

I have a little time right now, Test Friday..so I'm going to try and do some write-ups and possibly finalize my card tonight.

 

[gmoney72]

Nice. Finalized Card = Cha Ching. I will be finalizing mine then in the morning. Let's get em!!!!!!!!

 

[HigHeelFreak]

Glad 2 see you on TCU. my gow.
BOL with the rest. HH

 

[Randizzle14]

Game 1

Game 1
-------
AIR FORCE (6 - 2) at ARMY (3 - 5)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 12:00 PM

In a rivalry game where it is obvious that both teams know eachothers game plan (running), people are curious why I choose this game on the board when "It could go either way". Well the fact is that any game can go any way. I.E. Stanford beating USC last year. There is no such thing as a sure game, but there are games that you can find value in and statistically have an advatage when choosing the right team.

We know both teams can rush the ball, and do it well but the Falcons have the edge. They are averaging 291 Rushing yards/game and 347/game on the Road. Army is very impressive as well on the ground with 247 yards/game, but at home that drops off too 217 yards/game. This may not seem like much, but that's a difference of 130ypg between the two teams given the current situation.

As far as passing goes, it is almost not even worth noting due to the fact both teams are averaging less than 10 attempts/game.

The one stat (and possibly most important stat in Football) that lured me into this game more than any is Turnovers. Air Force is a well disciplined team that takes care of the ball. They have 10 Giveaways this season and 18 takeaways. nearly a 2to1 ratio on the + side for them. On the other side, Army is not as efficient. They have give the ball away 17 times this season while only managing 9 Takeaways. That alone tells me Airforce should have 2 to 3 more possesions and opportunity to score than Army on Saturday. Also, the Falcons have had 2 extra days to prepare for this game (doesn't seem like much, but every bit helps).

AIR FORCE is 14-5 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons
AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 19-7 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
ARMY is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 4-14 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

AIR FORCE is 10-6 against the spread versus ARMY
AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons

Calhoun is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Key Trends in Reference to the Line:
Air Force Falcons are 29-15-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 14-6-0 ATS After 1 ATS Wins (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 17-6-0 ATS After 1 Home (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 16-7-0 ATS vs. Army (All Lines)

Head-Head
When the line was 7 -> 9.5- AF- 04-01-00 (80.0%)

My Power Ratings:
Air Force: 34th
Army: 110th

My Effiency Ratings:
Air Force: 39th
Army: 93rd

I am Taking Air Force -9 (4 Units)

*-8.5 is available, but I grabbed this early so I'm stuck with 9.

GL, Dizz :toast:

 

[arnettt]

Like the air force call can't wait for the rest of them. Also I know its not one of your leans but being a UT student I am interested if you have any thoughts on the UT vs Tech game.