Question For Democrats & Joe Biden Supporters About His 2024 Betting Odds

[HacheMan]

You should just cut Biden out and bet Dems straight up like I said,

Dems to win is only like -110

Big difference in +230ish

This is why I ask those who follow it more closely how confident they are that Biden will be their nominee

It was nothing personal, political, or combative

That's a solid investment at +230 if the odds are in it's favor

 

[HacheMan]

2. I’m obviously not a liberal

No offense but I do not buy that based on your posts for some time now

Again, no offense

After all I admit which side I support

FYI in 100% honesty I used to support the other side years ago before I smartened up and opened my eyes

 

[savage1]

Although I usually vote Democratic, I consider myself as an independent and a realist when it comes to politics.

In direct response to your question and as I have stated in the IVU Thread, I feel VERY confident that for lots of obvious

reasons including most importantly the one where lots of people including myself believe he has "lost it" so to speak at his age and should

not be POTUS when his present term ends, he will NOT BE the Democratic nominee on the ballot for POTUS for 2024!!

Keep in mind that I am not considering the mess Hunter is in and which may very well impact him negatively in one way or the

other!!

I don't know how your proposed futures wager is written, but if there is not any kind of a no-bet if Biden is not the nominee,

personally I would not make that bet.

If there is such a clause and Biden is the nominee and the odds remain the same, I sure as hell would take the +223 and make

a significant bet on Biden.

I have a strong hunch though that the +223 that the bet is as proposed without a no-bet clause that I suggested!!

To change the subject, if there was some kind of a simple futures bet with decent odd(even odds or better) as to whether Trump will be

elected POTUS in 2024 with or without a no-bet clause if Trump is the nominee on Election Daym then I would back up the truck

and vote NO and probably be planning how to spend my winnings!!

Obviously don't go by what I or anyone else says or believes as it is not more valid than your own opinion after you do your dd!!

Hope that helps!!

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah I attempted to answer that, I’d say fuck riding with an 82 year old and just roll the -110. Newsom seems ready to step in any moment, who knows?

unless you think GOP is gonna crush with minorities like never before, then obviously don’t do that.

ive heard that shit my whole life, I’m not going to get into why I doubt it will happen but barring something cataclysmic, don’t see it

 

[PatsFan1283]

No offense but I do not buy that based on your posts for some time now

Again, no offense

After all I admit which side I support

FYI in 100 honestly I used to support the other side years ago before I smartened up and opened my eyes

Then you have me confused with someone else or you have a very poor understanding of political issues

Give 1 example where I’ve taken a left wing stance on an issue on this site in recent memory? It’ll be lame at best and outright wrong at worst

 

[PatsFan1283]

Although I usually vote Democratic, I consider myself as an independent and a realist when it comes to politics.

In direct response to your question and as I have stated in the IVU Thread, I feel VERY confident that for lots of obvious

reasons including most importantly the one where lots of people including myself believe he has "lost it" so to speak at his age and should

not be POTUS when his present term ends, he will NOT BE the Democratic nominee on the ballot for POTUS for 2024!!

Keep in mind that I am not considering the mess Hunter is in and which may very well impact him negatively in one way or the

other!!

I don't know how your proposed futures wager is written, but if there is not any kind of a no-bet if Biden is not the nominee,

personally I would not make that bet.

If there is such a clause and Biden is the nominee and the odds remain the same, I sure as hell would take the +223 and make

a significant bet on Biden.

I have a strong hunch though that the +223 that the bet is as proposed without a no-bet clause that I suggested!!

To change the subject, if there was some kind of a simple futures bet with decent odd(even odds or better) as to whether Trump will be

elected POTUS in 2024 with or without a no-bet clause if Trump is the nominee on Election Daym then I would back up the truck

and vote NO and probably be planning how to spend my winnings!!

Obviously don't go by what I or anyone else says or believes as it is not more valid than your own opinion after you do your dd!!

Hope that helps!!

There is no clause, if he steps down, you lose

 

[HacheMan]

Just the other day Biden was -130 or more

 

[HacheMan]

Then you have me confused with someone else or you have a very poor understanding of political issues

Give 1 example where I’ve taken a left wing stance on an issue on this site in recent memory? It’ll be lame at best and outright wrong at worst

Yeah my apologies

Just frustrating to create a serious thread and not asking for trouble, and I get sh!t immediately

Maybe bozzie didn't notice that it was about a bet a sports book and thought I was being political

I should have turned the other cheek

 

[HacheMan]

There is no clause, if he steps down, you lose

I'll have to look closer to see if there is

This is why I am asking opinions I want the best advice if I place that wager or wagers

 

[Bozzie]

Come on now you know anything but blowing the Dear Leader makes you a dem in anyone with MAGA tendencies....the GOP is about to be credited with shutting down the economy, inflicting needless inconvenience and or better pain to the average voter....

Seems like a good bet.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Biden wasn’t -130 or more, you’re conflating him with the dem overall odds which has been -120 to -150 range for awhile now

market has always had him as a fav to win Dem nomination but nothing crazy, -230 range

Thus the discrepancy in Dems/Biden for election

 

[HacheMan]

tCome on now you know anything but blowing the Dear Leader makes you a dem in anyone with MAGA tendencies....the GOP is about to be credited with shutting down the economy, inflicting needless inconvenience and or better pain to the average voter....

Seems like a good bet.

Well I disagree with that

Republicans are only asking one thing

The border be addressed

Then the dems get approval

That would be meeting in the middle but dems refuse and insist on the invasion to continue

But as for the bet, you think Biden can hold up another year+ to run again?

 

[HacheMan]

Biden wasn’t -130 or more,

Yep he sure was Pats

I check this stuff regularly

The only reason these odds changed so drastically is because offshore books are following that recent poll released this week

We all know not to put much faith into these polls, hence the reason I'm trying to take advantage before this great price goes down again

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yep he sure was Pats

I check this stuff regularly

The only reason these odds changed so drastically is because offshore books are following that recent poll released this week

We all know not to put much faith into these polls, hence the reason I'm trying to take advantage before this great price goes down again

That’s a rogue book then, he wasn’t -130 to win re-election

That would mean the Dems would’ve been over -200 and they weren’t

but I dunno, you could’ve seen something else

this new adjustment at your book is more the market getting in line with the idea he might not be the nominee

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah my apologies

Just frustrating to create a serious thread and not asking for trouble, and I get sh!t immediately

Maybe bozzie didn't notice that it was about a bet a sports book and thought I was being political

I should have turned the other cheek

I mean the phrasing is a little weird to open the question to only democrats, no one can even comment on that? There’s what, 3 known democrats on this site? If that, I dunno.

Then you said you don’t want to get screwed by the book if Biden doesn’t run like it’s some technicality. So I said no, you just lose the bet. This is kinda common sense.

But like I said, unless you think Biden is uniquely awful (which I don’t, whoever runs I think will be worse if it isn’t him) then just bet the GOP

I mean 82 fucking years old, I’d rather just bet Dems (which I’ll probably do at an infection point if I’m comfortable the economy doesn’t tip)

 

[HacheMan]

That’s a rogue book then, he wasn’t -130 to win re-election

Justbet, Betonline, Heritage

But it's always questionable

Trump is the presidential fav at those books right now, but the democratic party if favored to win it

 

[PatsFan1283]

Dems have been around -120 to -150ish….Maybe they figured hang Biden -130 thinking people wouldn’t think of difference, dunno

but if you truly believe GOP about to run up some big numbers with minorities then I’d just bet GOP, I dunno. I personally don’t see that barring recession. But I didn’t in 2020 either despite the fuss and thus bet Biden.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Use predictit to cross reference with your books sometimes, it is the most active political market

 

[savage1]

One last comment here on my part.

What has not been talked about so far unless I missed something how much the betting odds really mean regarding who

is actually going to win the Election.

For example, how do we know who bet to make the odds what they are, what their political views are, whether they let

their emotions and projections determine how they bet and how much they bet!!

We see this all of the time in sporting events where many times the actual odds set for a game are based on the bets on one team

or the other and the oddsmaker simply trying to make a line which in theory balances off the bets so that will get somewhat

equal action on each team!!

Many times before the game begins, shrewd bettors determine that the line is a linemaker mistake for one reason or another and

bets the other side to try to take advantage of the overlay or underlay!!

Imo it is no different in politics many times.

In this case though I can't honestly say whether the Trump vs Biden odds are correct or not because no one knows for sure yet

whether Trump or Biden will be the nominee for their respective Party.

if I understand this bet correctly, it means that you can lose four ways:

1) If it is Biden and Trump, and you pick the one who loses, you lose.

2) You lose if you bet Biden and he is not the nominee.

2e You lose if you bet Trump and he is not the nominee

4) You lose either way if neither one of them is the nominee.

Using the above criterion, it is a poor bet to make and is stacked as usual in favor of the House!!

I will not offer any more responses in this thread unless someone responds to this or the other one I posted.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Savage that’s a great point. Most people are simply too emotionally invested in the result to think rationally

But I am the vanguard of being rational and value money too much for that to be a problem, I am relentless in making sure objectivity is paramount