Queen of Hearts Exploited by the NFL 2016 week #6

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Guys please don't run her off. I have been fading the queen for 3 years now and won tons of $$$. It's money in the bank!

No one cold run me off.

If what you say is true, Im taking the Colts +3. If you really are fading and banking then feed the golden goose.

 

[Kaveman]

Suppose you were an advantage player and could pick nfl games slightly above break even; say 53% win rate. Would it make more sense to bet 2 team parlays rather than single game point spread bets?

You'd want to do straight bets. With parlays, you'd have to hit two together within that narrow profit margin to win, thereby erasing said margin.

 

[Selectrick]

Suppose you were an advantage player and could pick nfl games slightly above break even; say 53% win rate. Would it make more sense to bet 2 team parlays rather than single game point spread bets?

Considering the actual odds of picking two games winners is 3 to 1 and most outs only pay 2.6 to 1 (unless they've become more competitive lately) the answer to your question becomes painfully obvious. When it comes to teasers I wouldn't know where to begin to calculate "actual" odds, but I'm sure the book offering it has and he loves that you and I can't! Chances are the built in juice is astronomical comparatively speaking.

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

I admire you Queen.


You take a lot of shit but just keep coming back. BOL turning it around, season is still young.

Question for you that you don't have to answer but you said you only burned through about 25% of your bankroll. You have a $20,000 bankroll? Good for you if you do, wish I had that range. Unfortunately I'm around $5,000 could probably stretch it to $10,000 but I try not to get crazy.


BOL QOH

 

[eventhorizon]

I like your style QOH. Bigger risk bigger reward. Walk your own path.

 

[wizard1183]

I admire you Queen.


You take a lot of shit but just keep coming back. BOL turning it around, season is still young.

Question for you that you don't have to answer but you said you only burned through about 25% of your bankroll. You have a $20,000 bankroll? Good for you if you do, wish I had that range. Unfortunately I'm around $5,000 could probably stretch it to $10,000 but I try not to get crazy.


BOL QOH

perhaps she has a $20k bankroll but I've not seen if she plays other sports? But in the NFL there'd be no way. Sad to say, but following her? Would be like feeding your money into a slot machine that just hit jackpot right before you took over...

 

[alyn]

How many people actually have a "bankroll". I know a lot of gamblers and not one, including myself, have no such thing. They all bet and play until they lose so much they cant afford to pay and start making payments. I dont know one person that has a certain amount set aside only for gambling and when its gone is %100 done betting.

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

How many people actually have a "bankroll". I know a lot of gamblers and not one, including myself, have no such thing. They all bet and play until they lose so much they cant afford to pay and start making payments. I dont know one person that has a certain amount set aside only for gambling and when its gone is %100 done betting.

Negative

I set a BR for 3 sports :

NFL
WNBA
NHL

when it's gone, it's gone until the next season.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

Negative

I set a BR for 3 sports :

NFL
WNBA
NHL

when it's gone, it's gone until the next season.

Do you post those hockey picks all season or until the BR is gone?

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

Do you post those hockey picks all season or until the BR is gone?

If I bust out my NHL BR before the NHL season is over then I am done. Ive never busted out in NHL and "NO" I dont know much about hockey other than the numbers and scheduling. I bet lunch $$ in the WNBA for the hell of it. I know the league is fixed and every once in a while I think I spot shenanigans before tip.

I am no pro MCM. I have never claimed to be. I was asked to post here long ago. I did not want to but I did it anyways and made a shit load of friends here and it use to be fun. Its not fun losing though. Other than that, not much to say. I post my shit every week and you show up to read it every week. Its pretty simple actually.


NHL

This season I am:
4-3
+$4

Tonight is:

Blues - 1/2 Reg +108 $150

 

[QUEENOFHEARTS]

MCM,
since you are interested......


I went ahead and put another $50 on

SLB - 1/2 1st per +160 $50

 

[sherwood]

NFL Teasers can be quite profitable if you understand numbers.

That might be the dumbest thing I have ever heard in 40 years of betting sports. Just a heads up to all you teaser players....the house edge in teasers can go as high as 55% (depending on final score), whereas the house edge in a 2-game (or any # of games) money line parlay is 0%. That's simple math. There isn't a person on earth who can overcome the house edge in teasers. NOT ONE.

Boss415 stated the only way to ever play a teaser. If the house offers an exotic bet (teaser, hard ways at the craps table), it is not to your benefit. Play teasers and you are playing into the house strengths. Look to play into the house inefficiencies instead of strengths.

Ask 500 sportsbook owners what they would rather take action on, a teaser or parlay and 100% of them would say parlay without hesitation.
If you bet teasers and/or buy points, you will get murdered. But the funniest part is that 99% of all teaser players will read this and still bet them next week.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

MCM,
since you are interested......


I went ahead and put another $50 on

SLB - 1/2 1st per +160 $50

Tough loss 2-1 OT. Hockey I was never into. A real tough sport to bet. In all the years I been around and I knew a lot of people who made their living gambling few of them bet hockey. The ones who did that I knew mostly tried to arbitrage the games. Good Luck in the hockey. To long of a season for me.